Commentary for Friday, June 20, 2025 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $21.70 at $3368.10, and silver closed down $0.89 at $35.98. While the price of gold dipped on the open it quickly reversed direction and moved to session highs of $3370.00 as Middle East tensions rise and the world braces for heated rhetoric as Israel plans further attacks on Iran. Iran claims it will not abandon its nuclear options, especially under threat, warning the United States that if it helps Israel this war will become more dangerous for all parties. This standoff becomes more complicated because it is difficult to tell who is bluffing. But what really worries me is that neither side offers a compromise. And so, the world fears the classic Pyrrhic victory. One which comes at such a great cost that it turns into a loss for both sides. Last Friday gold closed at $3431.20 / silver at $36.28. On the week gold was off $63.10, and silver was off $0.30.
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On Monday the price of gold dipped lower, testing support around $3390.00, recovering somewhat but finishing solidly in the red on the close. The initial dip was the result of a profit taking round coupled with the likelihood that Iran now seems willing to talk about its nuclear capabilities. How long this standoff will last remains to be seen but it is promising that someone blinked after Friday’s madness and President Trump’s warning to Iran to negotiate while there is time to make a difference. Still, geopolitical tensions continue to rise and it’s difficult to tell who is bluffing and who is not in this cabal of political and perhaps even nuclear violence. While the gold price dipped today, the long term feud between Israel and Iran will likely support prices on both sides of $3400.00. While the technical picture for gold remains solid, the long standing overhead resistance at $3500.00 may still hold unless the Fed lowers interest rates sooner than later. Bank of America said in a note today that $4000.00 gold is possible in the next 12 months.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – “Gold slipped over 1% on Monday as traders took profits after prices hit an eight-week high, while the market focused on Israel-Iran tensions and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. Spot gold was down 1.1% to $3,396.09 an ounce by 10:10 a.m. EDT (1410 GMT) after hitting its highest level since April 22 earlier in the session. Prices rose more than 1% on Friday. “Keep in mind that gold has moved higher over the past several sessions, largely in response to the conflict between Israel and Iran. Today, we’re seeing more of a pullback, likely due to profit-taking after that higher move,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Iran has been urgently signaling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the United States via Arab intermediaries, the Wall Street Journal reported. Reuters could not immediately confirm the report. Meanwhile, leaders from the Group of Seven nations begin annual talks in Canada. U.S. stock index futures rose while the dollar was softer in choppy trading. Investors are also focused on the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, which wraps up on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. “At this point, it appears the Fed is inclined to remain on hold, given the significant uncertainty in the economy, ranging from tariffs to geopolitical tensions. So, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Fed delay any interest rate cuts, effectively kicking the can down the road,” Meger said. Bullion is viewed as a safeguard during times of geopolitical instability and rising inflation. It also benefits from low interest rate environments, since it doesn’t offer any yield income. Among other metals, spot silver steadied at $36.31 per ounce, platinum jumped 3.4% to $1,269.15, while palladium gained 2% to $1,048.36.”
On the day gold closed down $34.80 at $3396.40, and silver closed up $0.10 at $36.38.
On Tuesday the price of gold was choppy on the open, trading between $3370.00 and $3397.00 but soon developed a mild downward drift, touching $3370.00. For now, we appear to be treading water which is surprising. The number of rumors circulating over Israel and Iran spiked last night. So why aren’t we seeing higher gold prices this morning? The FOMC will meet this week, beginning today and ending Wednesday afternoon. Thursday is a Federal holiday so the commodity markets will be closed. We will be open our normal hours. Both these events will diminish bullish sentiment. And this being a short week prices should be subdued. Geopolitical tension however is the elephant in the living room. It is difficult to tell exactly what is happening but any serious provocation from Israel or Iran could spark upside momentum.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Wait for Momentum – “The gold market was somewhat quiet in the early hours of Tuesday, but this makes sense, as the FOMC Statement is due on Wednesday. Furthermore, there are a lot of questions to be asked about the war between Israel and Iran, and central bank buying. Technical Analysis – The gold market is relatively quiet during the Tuesday session, despite the fact that retail sales in the United States came out weaker than anticipated. This is probably for a plethora of reasons, not the least of which will be the fact that the FOMC meeting and announcement in America is due on Wednesday. We also have a lot of questions about geopolitical concerns overseas, specifically Israel and Iran, which obviously have a major influence on gold as well. This is a market that is primed to see volatility sooner or later. The $3,500 above is an area that I think a lot of people will be testing for resistance. And if we can break above there, the market is likely to continue going much higher. Short-term pullbacks ultimately should be buying opportunities, with the $33 level underneath offering a bit of a floor. The 50-day EMA is sitting right there as well. And I think ultimately, this is a market where you’re looking to pick up dips and find value. The market has been noisy for several weeks now. And it just seems like we’re trying to work off some of that excess froth from the move higher. The market will continue to look at $3,200 as a bit of a floor, assuming that we even get there. I think it’s more likely we will break to the outside just simply following the same path that we have followed for the last couple of years. Silver Spikes but Finds Resistance – The silver market has been bullish for some time, and after the Retail Sales number came in light in the USA, the silver market managed to pierce the crucial $37 level. However, it started to pull back quickly as we continue to wait for the FOMC Statement on Wednesday. Technical Analysis – The silver market pierced the $37 level on Tuesday, an area that, of course, has been fairly significantly resistance, but we also have pulled back below it. It is probably worth noting that the Tuesday session also has seen retail sales come out weaker than anticipated in the United States. So, we are getting a little bit of help from the weakening US dollar. At this point though, it’ll be interesting to see how this closes because we are pulling back pretty quickly from breaking above that crucial $37 level, an area that has been important more than once in silver markets. So, I don’t know if we have the momentum to truly break out quite yet. That being said, this is most certainly a bullish market longer term. And with that being the case, I don’t have any interest in trying to short silver. And I think we not only have that previous $37 level as resistance, but now $35.48, I believe at least, is a significant support region. Ultimately, I think we probably will continue to go sideways in general, but I don’t necessarily think that this is a market that you want to throw a ton of money into right now. We need some type of catalyst to get moving. Regardless, shorting is impossible. So, if we get a pullback, perhaps you can enter based on cheap silver, but we’ll just have to see how that plays out over the next couple of days.”
On the day gold closed down $9.80 at $3386.60, and silver closed up $0.71 at $37.09.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved quietly between $3397.00 and $3375.00 as traders pondered the latest FOMC take on interest rates which will be released after the markets close today. The Fed made no changes, and the price of gold closed slightly in the green. This will not provide the buzz necessary to create the next leg in a still developing long term bull market.
The unresolved and dangerous problem between Israel and Iran adds to the possibility of short term records but today’s drift to the downside in the aftermarket will trouble bullish sentiment. Trump is not happy with Chief Powell for not lowering interest rates, but Powell does not seem intimidated and will focus on interest rates as a tool for controlling inflation. My bet is that gold will remain steady in the short to medium term. There are, however, crosswinds at work which may upset this apple cart, so the smart money will keep their seat belts fastened.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold little changed ahead of Fed decision, platinum hits more than 4-year high – “Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, while platinum surged to a more than four-year peak. Spot gold was down 0.1% to $3,386.10 an ounce by 1013 a.m. EDT (1413 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $3,403.50. Markets are trading sideways right now as everyone is waiting for Fed’s decision and the developments in the Middle East, Marex analyst Edward Meir said. In the Middle East, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender, as Iranians jammed the highways out of Tehran fleeing from intensified Israeli airstrikes. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged when it announces its policy decision, due at 0200 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Investors will also closely monitor Powell’s speech for clues on the central bank’s future course of action. Trump knocked Powell for what he expected would be a decision not to lower interest rates and said the man he put in the role during his last term had done a poor job. Gold’s appeal is increased by geopolitical tensions and by low interest rates. But prices lost momentum after hitting a session high of $3,451.04 on Monday, nearing a record peak set in April. Goldman Sachs said in a note that interest has shifted to other precious metals as investors seek catch-up opportunities. “In our view, platinum and silver’s recent rallies are primarily speculative and lack fundamental support,” it added. Spot silver shed 0.8% to $36.95 per ounce, after reaching its highest level since February 2012 earlier. Platinum rose 3.1% to $1,302.17, highest since February 2021. “The high price of gold has shrunk Chinese gold jewelry demand and there are high hopes that platinum will be the substitute. If May demand remains strong or increases, platinum will push higher; if April was a one-off expect a sharp retracement,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.”
On the day gold closed up $3.20 at $3389.80, and silver closed down $0.22 at $36.87.
On Thursday the price of gold moved between $3350.00 and $3375.00 on another quiet day, which finished mildly in the red. But keep in mind that the US markets are closed for Juneteenth a Federal holiday. Most should be rightly confused about what exactly is driving the physical gold and silver bullion market. Because the conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating and Israel seems to have moved into some kind of “regime change” as opposed to just limiting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And if the public sees this move as dangerous and provocative, which it is, then why did gold move lower today? The answer here is complicated, as usual.
Both Iran and Israel have been long time enemies and while Israel is just getting started Iran no longer has the Middle East infrastructure to oppose a well-armed Israeli air force. At the same time, no one knows for sure whether Iran already has or is close to making a workable nuclear weapon. And both sides see themselves as victims of aggression when it comes to disputed land around the Gaza strip. When Trump suggested his plan to take over Gaza, turning it into the “Riviera of the Middle East” most thought he had lost his mind. But in retrospect this may be the only workable solution, which makes sense and will avoid a nightmarish outcome. So again, why did gold drift lower today? You would think that if this reasoning is true and the world is worried about a wider regional conflict in the Middle East why is gold not moving higher in price?
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold little changed, platinum retreats from 10-year high – “Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as heightened geopolitical tensions offset pressure from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, while platinum slipped after scaling its highest level since September 2014. The U.S. market will remain closed today in observance of Juneteenth. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,365.79 an ounce at 0940 a.m. EDT (1340 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $3,382.80. The U.S. dollar ticked up, making greenback-priced metals more expensive for other currency holders. “The U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that inflation risk remains high. So that reduces the chances of resuming the interest rate cuts, which is weighing on gold prices,” said ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday and policymakers still forecast cutting rates by half-a-percentage point this year but have slowed their overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on this outlook, warning of “meaningful” inflation ahead as higher import tariffs loom. On the geopolitical front, Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital overnight, as the week-old air war escalated with no sign yet of an off-ramp. Gold is considered a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. But a higher interest rate environment dulls its appeal as it yields no interest. In other metals, platinum lost 3.7% to $1,269.30, after rising to its highest level since September 2014 earlier in the session. “When a sharp rally breaks a key technical level like 1,000, it often triggers buying from both investors and speculators. However, such swift price moves are typically not rooted in fundamentals and carry a high risk of profit-taking,” Kumari added. Palladium lost nearly 1.1% to $1,038.56, while silver fell 1.4% to $36.21 per ounce.”
On the day gold closed up $3.20 at $3389.80, and silver closed down $0.22 at $36.87.
On Friday the price of gold tested support at $3340.00 in early trade and then bounced higher, moving above $3370.00 even though the Dollar Index held at the higher end of its weekly range. The pop to higher ground is likely the result of a growing realization that the Israel / Iran standoff will become increasingly tense, perhaps ending in the use of nuclear weapons. This outcome is of course the worst case scenario and over the longer term may not solve the underlying problems between Israel and Iran. Analysts suggest that this cataclysm may then break into individual factions pursuing their own territorial interests. Israel has stated that their original goal was not regime change but admits it could end with that result. Trump will likely be forced to do something but will wait a week or two before committing himself in the hope that cooler heads will prevail. In the meantime, the streets are crowded with people exiting already bombed out cities in a panicked attempt to get out of the way of this developing disaster.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold poised for worst week in a month as US rate cut expectations ease – “Gold prices fell on Friday and were poised for their worst weekly performance in more than a month after the Federal Reserve tempered expectations for rate cuts and on a temporary easing of concerns about an imminent U.S. attack on Iran. Spot gold slipped 0.7% to $3,347.80 an ounce, as of 1201 GMT, and was down 2.5% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures shed 1.3% to $3,364.00. The dollar was up 0.5% so far this week and poised for its biggest weekly gain in over a month, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the Israel-Iran air war, the White House said on Thursday. Israel and Iran’s conflict entered a second week on Friday. Trump’s two-week deadline “indicates that things could have a little bit more hope to cool down before the U.S. involvement in that military strike. And I think that’s easing some of the anxiety in markets, allowing gold prices to deflate a little”, said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree. Gold, a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, also tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held interest rates in the central bank’s current 4.25%-4.50% range, but slowed its overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging economic outlook. Trump reiterated his calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, saying on Thursday the rates should be 2.5 percentage points lower. “Gold, silver, and platinum all suffered setbacks as traders booked profits after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “Gold is likely to extend its current consolidation phase with support around $3,320 followed by $3,245.” Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.1% to $35.99 per ounce, while palladium lost 0.2% to $1,048.33. Platinum fell 1.7% to $1,285.58, after hitting its highest level in over 10 years in the previous session.”
On the day gold closed down $21.70 at $3368.10, and silver closed down $0.89 at $35.98.
Platinum closed down $47.80 at $1263.70, and palladium closed down $9.00 at $1052.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $3,476.30. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,387.20 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at $3,350.00 and then at the June low of $3,313.10. July silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bearish broadening pattern has formed on the daily bar chart, which begins to suggest a market top is in place. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at $36.50 and then at $37.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $35.515 and then at $35.00.”
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