Posted on

Gold –  Volatility Returns

Gold –  Volatility Returns

Commentary for Friday, July 12, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $1.00 at $2414.00, and silver closed down $0.50 at $30.89. After Thursday’s round of fireworks to the upside it must be a disappointment to bullish sentiment to see gold momentum fizzle into the weekend. Still the optimism cup is more than half full. Momentum still favors the bulls and the chance of an interest rate cut before year end is increasing. Which should put $2500.00 gold in the spotlight before Thanksgiving. I would not ignore today’s pricing drag, but it does suggest that higher prices create the usual volatile downdrafts. Last Friday gold closed at $2388.50 / silver at $31.39. On the week gold was up $25.50 and silver was down $0.50.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold dipped lower in the early trade bouncing off $2355.00 and finally closing in the red for the day. Traders still believe that downside support remains firm. This should sound familiar by now because it is the same old playbook of “interest rate intentions”. This theme dominates gold prices as bullish optimist’s look for that interest rate cut, as the bearish sentiment waits for the once hawkish FOMC to reestablish itself by holding interest rates steady. For the present both sides of this argument are “stuck”. But if there is a silver lining here it would be that this “back and forth” pricing has created a more stable and predictable market, with increasingly upbeat sentiment. Frank E. Homes (Kitco) “Excessive government spending in the U.S. and geopolitical uncertainty are underpinning calls from some investor heavyweights to buy gold as a hedge against sovereign debt risks. Schroder Investment Management and UBS Global Wealth Management are bracing for a rocky second half, and gold has emerged as a preferred trade to navigate the volatility, according to Bloomberg.”

Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold succumbs to profit-taking after US jobs-fueled rally – “Gold slipped on Monday as investors booked profits after soft U.S. jobs data fueled prices to a more than a one-month high on rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,376.40 per ounce as of 1223 GMT, after rising to its highest level since May 22 on Friday. U.S. gold futures eased 0.5% to $2,384.80. Data last week pointed to a slackening labor market that keeps the U.S. central bank on course to start cutting interest rates soon. Markets are currently pricing in a 72% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September as well as another cut in December.  “We should not forget gold had a nice rally last Friday, so some profit taking and a stronger dollar post the French elections are weighing on gold today,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “Lower U.S. interest rates are likely to support more inflows into gold ETFs (exchange-traded funds), which likely has the room to push the yellow metal to $2,600/oz by the end of the year.” This week investors’ focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony, comments from a series of Fed officials, and U.S. inflation data. “If we get another downside surprise in inflation data, which we have seen pretty consistently in U.S. data, then that’s going to be a tailwind for gold,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com. Elsewhere, top consumer China’s central bank refrained from gold purchases to its reserves for a second consecutive month in June. “Monthly data based on IMF reporting don’t catch the full picture of central bank activity, so I would not be surprised if the final data from the World Gold Council indicates solid central bank activity in the second quarter of this year,” UBS’ Staunovo said. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $31.09, platinum edged 1.6% lower to $1,010.10 and palladium dropped 21.3% to $1,012.94.

On the day gold closed down $33.30 at $2355.20, and silver closed down $0.77 at $30.62.

On Tuesday the price of gold moved between $2356.00 and $2368.00 in the early trade, but the latest news from the Fed might suggest this interest rate stalemate will begin to resolve itself sooner than later. (Reuters) “Inflation remains above” the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target but has been improving in recent months and “more good data would strengthen” the case for central bank interest rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday in congressional testimony. In comments that appeared to show increasing faith that inflation will return to the Fed’s target, a requirement for easing monetary policy, Powell compared the lack of progress on that front in the first months of the year to recent improvement that has helped build the Fed’s confidence that price pressures will continue to diminish.” The price of gold and silver were little changed after the release of this fresh information, suggesting caution from investors and traders. But I am more optimistic here, you may be looking at the first steps in what has turned out to be a rather long process of unwinding interest rates. In other words the Fed, by its own admission is moving in the right direction so you could see gold climb above $2400.00 before the end of the year!

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold holds steady as traders await US inflation data for Fed clues – “Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday as the dollar held firm and Treasury yields ticked higher, while investors looked forward to the U.S. June inflation data due later this week for more clarity on the U.S. interest rate path. Spot gold was up 0.1% to $2,360.70 per ounce as of 10:13 a.m. ET (1413 GMT), after dropping more than 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.2% to $2,367.80. The dollar was up 0.1% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, while Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields inched higher. There’s an expectation that the Federal Reserve is more likely to start cutting rates as early as September, which is contributing positively to current market condition, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Recent U.S. economic data pointed to a slackening labor market, cementing expectations that the U.S. central bank is on course to start cutting interest rates soon. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday in congressional testimony said inflation “remains above” the Fed 2% target but has been improving in recent months and “more good data would strengthen” the case for central bank interest rate cuts. Focus now shifts to the consumer price index (CPI) data on Thursday, with recent numbers showing a cooling from unexpectedly high levels at the start of the year. If markets are shown evidence of still-stubborn U.S. inflation, that may prompt the precious metal to unwind more of its recent gains, said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. Traders currently see about a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding bullion’s appeal tends to grow when interest rates are lower. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.4% to $30.91 per ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to $991.90 and palladium slipped 0.5% to $1,003.75.”

On the day gold closed up $4.90 at $2360.10, and silver closed up $0.15 at $30.77.

On Wednesday the price of gold surged reaching $2386.00 before traders sold the rally. Still, gold finished in the green for the day. All this excitement was created by Powell’s opening comments before a Senate Committee. Traders did take profits, but I think remain cautious of this latest bullish news because the following talk with a House Committee was nothing special. Still the trading mood remains upbeat on even the possibility of lower interest rates and the bulls are encouraged by a technical outlook which suggests thar higher prices are in the offing.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Edges Higher as Fed Signals Potential Rate Cuts – “Gold prices are moving upward on Wednesday, finding strong support at the 50-day moving average of $2343.27. The market’s next challenge is to surpass last week’s high of $2392.97 to attract new buyers and fresh capital. At 11:11 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2372.93, up $8.90 or +0.38%. Fed Chair’s Cautious Stance – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments have bolstered the case for interest rate cuts. While maintaining a cautious approach, Powell acknowledged improved inflation data and stated that “more good data would strengthen” the argument for looser monetary policy. This stance has provided support for gold prices. Market Expectations – Traders are currently pricing in a 73% probability of a rate cut in September, with another reduction expected by December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The non-yielding nature of gold makes it more attractive in a lower interest rate environment. Treasury Yields and Economic Outlook – U.S. Treasury bond yields decreased slightly on Wednesday following Powell’s warning about the potential negative impact of prolonged high interest rates on economic growth. The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2 basis points to 4.275%, while the 2-year Treasury note yield remained relatively stable at 4.618%. Upcoming Economic Data – Investors are eagerly anticipating key economic releases, including the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and the Producer Price Index on Friday. The CPI data is expected to show headline prices rising 0.1% month-on-month and core prices gaining 0.2%, with annual increases of 3.1% and 3.4%, respectively. ETF Inflows – The World Gold Council reported that global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds experienced inflows for the second consecutive month in June, driven by additions to holdings in Europe- and Asia-listed funds. Market Forecast – The short-term outlook for gold appears bullish. With the Fed signaling a potential shift towards rate cuts and ongoing economic uncertainties, gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is likely to strengthen. However, the market will be closely watching the upcoming CPI data, which could influence the Fed’s decision-making process and, consequently, gold prices in the near term. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold maintains its position above the 50-day moving average at $2343.29, which serves as key support. This level has held for six consecutive trading sessions, indicating buyer presence. Breakout Potential – The market faces resistance at last week’s high of $2392.97. A break above this level could trigger a rally towards $2450.13. Such a move is likely to be driven by significant news events. Downside Scenario – If gold falls below the 50-day moving average, it may not necessarily indicate a bearish trend. Instead, it could suggest the market needs more time to consolidate before attempting an upward move. Strong Support Zone – A triple-bottom formation between $2277.34 and $2293.69 provides a robust support zone, offering potential buying opportunities on significant dips.”

On the day gold closed up $12.10 at $2372.20, and silver closed down $0.04 at $30.73.

On Thursday the gold bulls were again smiling as it moved from $2380.00 to $2420.00 in a flash after surprisingly cooling inflation data and Powell’s latest dovish comments seem to underpin bullish sentiment on the short term. There are still some naysayers who claim that while the Fed may lower interest rates between now and the end of the year the dip will not be large enough and this latest bullish energy will dissipate. I don’t know about that story line; the whole world may be interested in gold and silver bullion as political tension and geopolitical shifts in power perhaps compete with the dollar. But one thing is sure, prices are high for both gold and silver so it figures you will be reading more fantastic stories, much of which I would ignore. This is a period however where technical analysis can warn of turns in the road. In the meantime, it looks like $2500.00 might be in short term cards for gold.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Find Buyers After CPI – “The gold market went straight up in the air after the consumer price index numbers in the United States came out weaker than anticipated, but in doing so, it does suggest that we are going to continue to be very noisy but continue to focus on the idea of whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates. If, in fact, they will, then that should help gold over the longer term. On the other hand, if they remain tight, then it’s possible that the Federal Reserve will squash gold. I think at this point in time, though, the market has already made up its mind, and it’s probably only a matter of time before we truly see gold take off to the upside. Clearly, we have a lot of momentum, and the $2,300 level underneath has been like a brick wall. It’s probably worth noting that the $2,400 level has been very difficult to overcome as well. So with all of that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where traders continue to press the resistance above, and I think short term pullbacks will end up being buying opportunities given enough time. Ultimately, this is a market that not only breaks higher, but I think eventually breaks above the $2,450 level to go looking to the $2,500 level. But we don’t necessarily know that it’s going to happen right now. With this, I remain bullish, but I’m looking for short term pullbacks to get involved. Silver Continues to Look Strong – “The silver market has broken to the upside during the trading session on Thursday, as the consumer price index numbers in the United States came out much weaker than anticipated. This has people hoping and perhaps even believing that the Federal Reserve is going to cut rates later this year, and that has people excited for risk appetite. With that being the case, it’s just a continuation of the very bullish behavior that we had seen in the silver market. And now it looks like we could threaten the recent highs near the $32.50 level. We certainly saw a huge surge initially after that announcement came out cooler than anticipated. So, it’ll be interesting to see if we get any follow through. Short term pullbacks at this point in time should continue to be thought of as buying opportunities, and I think the $31 level will be the first support level. After that we have the $30 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure which is starting to attract the attention of the 50 day EMA. All things being equal, I think it is becoming increasingly obvious that silver is not a market you can sell, and therefore you have to look for buying opportunities, perhaps on dips, on short term charts, or maybe just a fresh new high. Silver, of course, is highly sensitive to interest rates, which obviously are dropping and therefore it frees silver to go higher. Also, there’s the industrial demand aspect of silver. So don’t forget that a lot of people will be looking to whether or not the Fed will stimulate the economy.”

On the day gold closed up $42.80 at $2415.00, and silver closed up $0.66 at $31.39.  

On Friday the price of gold was surprisingly choppy, moving between $2394.00 and $2412.00. This type of action will hurt the bullish momentum created on Thursday, but I think traders are still looking for further upside in both gold and silver prices, all things considered. Across our trading desk volume numbers have been steady, not too hot and not too cold. The public is surprisingly interested in buying even with these higher interest rates. And I’m happy that well into July gold is still holding up around $2400.00. In my opinion the physical market in both gold and silver is not running out of gas, it has plenty of potential, especially in the longer term.

Ernest Hoffman (Kito) – Gold falls below $2,400 as U.S. PPI sees sharp rise in June – “The gold market is selling off after the latest data shows U.S. producers saw surprisingly strong price pressures last month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% in June, following May’s 0.2% decrease, the U.S. Labor Department announced on Friday. The latest inflation data was higher than expected, as economists looked for a 0.1% increase. In the last 12 months headline wholesale inflation increased 2.6%, the report said, which was well above the consensus for a 2.3% reading. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.4% in June against economists’ forecasts for a 0.2% increase and following May’s flat reading. Annual core PPI was 3.0% against the consensus expectation for a 2.5% reading and following May’s 2.3% print. The gold market is selling off on the worse-than-expected inflation data. Spot gold fell sharply below $2,400 per ounce in the moments following the PPi release, last trading at $2,397.13 for a loss of 0.76% on the day.  PPI is viewed as a leading inflation indicator as producers pass higher input costs on to their customers. Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, said the PPI report is actually a lot better than it looks. “Ignore the fact that core PPI increased by a slightly bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m in June and that May was revised to a 0.3% rise from unchanged,” he wrote in a note shared with Kitco News. “The PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE deflator inflation measure were significantly lower than expected for June and it looks like May’s PCE gain could be revised down too, albeit only slightly.” “The big news is that, after applying our own seasonal adjustment, PPI hospital prices increased by only 0.1% m/m in June and the massive 1.3% m/m surge in May was revised down to a 0.6% gain,” Ashworth added. “In addition, after rising by 0.8% m/m in May, PPI office of physicians prices fell by 0.4% m/m in June. Portfolio management prices only increased by 1.0% m/m in June, which barely reversed the 0.8% gain in May. Admittedly, PPI international air transportation prices rebounded strongly, but prices on domestic routes continued to fall, echoing what we learned in June’s CPI report.” “The upshot is that our post-CPI estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by 0.19% m/m in June has, post-PPI, been cut to only 0.12% m/m,” he concluded. “In addition, we think that May’s increase could be trimmed from 0.08% to 0.05%. That would be enough to pull the annual core PCE inflation rate down to 2.5%, from 2.6%, with the 3m annualized growth rate dropping back to 1.8%, from 2.7%.” “September rate cut on the way – and we can’t completely rule out a surprise move in July.” Market analysts have said that falling producer prices, combined with improving CPI inflation, could give the Federal Reserve the confidence to begin lowering interest rates as early as September, supporting gold’s long-term uptrend.”

On the day gold closed down $1.00 at $2414.00, and silver closed down $0.50 at $30.89.

Platinum closed down $6.50 at $999.00, and palladium closed down $24.30 at $969.10.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May contract high of $2,477.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $2,304.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,421.80 and then at this week’s high of $2,430.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,396.90 and then at Thursday’s low of $2,376.80. September silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at $31.00 and then at $31.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $30.62 and then at $30.45.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

 

Posted on

Gold – It’s Still About Interest Rates 

Gold – It’s Still About Interest Rates 

Commentary for Friday, July 5, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $28.70 at $2388.50, and silver closed up $0.84 at $31.39. While this week began rather quietly it woke up nicely on Wednesday and Friday, even though our domestic trade was closed Thursday for Independence Day. The prime mover here being interest rates as the Dollar Index lost a full point this week. The oddsmakers are claiming that there is a 72% chance of a rate cut by September. This made Wall Street happy, a rate cut would help decrease recession fears. And lower interest rates encourage the already bullish technical outlook for both gold and silver. All things considered the metals trade feels a bit lighter going into the weekend. Halloween, however, is not far off so remember that the bearish “trick” or bullish “treat” is still in the hands of the FOMC and will depend on their next interest rate move. Last Friday gold closed at $2327.70 / silver at $29.24. On the week gold was $60.80 and silver was higher by $2.15.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold opened to the upside around $2338.00 and traders, in usual fashion  sold this rally pushing prices to support levels around $2320.00. So, we opened this week with a yawn as gold held within last week’s range. Silver prices also followed last week’s support levels and traders sit back and wait for fresh news from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. This back and forth action at the higher end of both trading ranges is a plus for the bulls but these higher interest rates continue to “grind” both metals moving forward.

FXEmpire (Christpher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Support Underneath Current Levels – “The gold market has gone back and forward during the course of the early hours on Monday, as we continue to hang out and look for a certain amount of momentum to finally go higher. I think in the meantime, you’re looking for short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities in a market that has obviously been bullish for some time. However, there is a lack of liquidity really at this point in a lot of contracts, mainly due to the fact that it’s the dead of summer and furthermore, a lot of people have no idea what to do. So I think you’re going to see more of a malaise, but it does look well supported near the $2,300 level that hangs down to the $2,280 level. In general, this is a situation where I think there will be plenty of buyers in that region. If we do break down below $2,280, then we could drop towards the $2,150 level, but right now I just don’t see that happening. Buyers probably jump in and try to push this thing closer to the $2,360 level, maybe even $2,400, but it might take some time. Keep in mind this is a typically quiet time of year and that’s pretty much what you’re seeing play out on the charts. This is a market that has been bullish until recently, but at this point in time, it is also worth noting that the summer is typically somewhat quiet, and therefore it is normal for it to do little in this environment. The silver market rallied just a bit during the trading session on Monday as the 50 day EMA continues to be a very significant technical indicator that a lot of people will be paying attention to as per usual. With that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of whether or not you’re finding value and I do think you are finding value at this point. So with that being said, I think we continue to see plenty of buy on the dip traders get involved and quite a few defend the 50 day EMA as well as the $28.50 level. All things being equal, I do think that we are trying to get to the $30 level, which of course is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area where a lot of people would be involved. If we can break above the $30 level, then the market could continue the overall uptrend. In the short term, it wouldn’t be surprising to see this market as one that goes somewhat sideways because there is a serious lack of economic announcements during the day to really spook the market and that has a lot to do with the fact that we may just see a gradual lift in risk appetite as there isn’t much to be worried about. Silver of course is volatile, so this could be a big advantage for silver, assuming that there is no shock news. The market continues to look more positive than anything else going forward.”

On the day gold closed down $0.10 at $2327.60, and silver closed up $0.06 at $29.30.

On Tuesday pricing looked like another quiet day with gold trading between $2334.00 and $2320.00. Still, there are opportunities for gaining fresh insight this week. Today we will see fresh JOLTS insight into jobs and turnover. On Wednesday Chief Powell will speak with ECB President Lagarde in Portugal and we will also see fresh FOMC minutes. Thursday the 4th of July is Independence Day, and the domestic markets are closed. So given no one upsets the apple cart (a possibility if the Fed turns dovish) my bet is this week will finish on the quiet side.

Reuters (Polina Devitt) – Gold slips amid elevated Treasury yields – “Gold prices fell on Tuesday under pressure from elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar while investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and more data for further clues about the interest rate path. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,327.90 per ounce by 1257 GMT. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a one-month high on Monday and stayed elevated on Tuesday, making non-yielding bullion less attractive, amid bets on the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency. “Markets are waiting for the nonfarm payrolls report at the end of the week,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell. “Trump Supreme Court verdict may be supportive (for gold) for geopolitical reasons. Dollar and bond yields are already reflecting that postulation.” Gold is down 5% from a record high of $2,449.89 per ounce it touched on May 20, a rally caused by safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty as well as persistent central bank buying, a crucial category of demand. “Physical demand is still subdued in major markets like India and Turkey but there are signs of recovery there as consumers are keen to protect against other factors like local inflation which still remains high,” said a trader. There are, however, signs that central banks are slowing down gold purchases amid high prices, though their demand remains above the pre-2022 level. Central banks reported about 10 metric tons of net gold buying in May, 56% lower month-on-month, according to the World Gold Council. Central banks of Poland, Turkey and India were the largest buyers, while Kazakhstan sold 11 tons. Saxo Bank expects gold and silver to hit $2,500 and $35 per ounce, respectively, by the end of 2024 as U.S. rate cuts could invite back demand for physically backed gold exchange-traded funds. Spot silver edged up 0.4% to $29.55. Platinum added 1.7% to $993.97 and palladium rose 2.4% to $994.50 with the focus on improved prospects for hybrid car sales vs slower growth of palladium-free electric vehicles market.”

On the day gold closed down $4.60 at $2323.00, and silver closed up $0.05 at $29.35.

On Wednesday the price of gold surged higher in a surprise move challenging $2365.00. A bit surprising, I was expecting a quiet week because of Independence Day but recent economic data and Chief Powell’s conversation with the ECB’s President Christine Lagarde has apparently reshuffled the economic deck. It is worth noting the word “apparently” because Powell is a master at controlling this dynamic, so for now the bulls roar, but this windfall could change quickly if the Chief decides to double down on the inflation threat. Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Many markets were assuaged, including the precious metals and the U.S. stock market, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell leaned easier on U.S. monetary policy in a speech at a European Central Bank confab in Portugal Tuesday. Said Angus Campbell of Trade Nation in an email dispatch today: “Powell delivered a fairly dovish speech, with the headline being that the U.S. central bank has made progress on reducing inflation. But he went on to say that he needs to see more evidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back towards the 2% target before he will be happy to loosen monetary policy. Despite this, the market continues to assign a high probability for two 25-basis- point rate cuts before year-end.” Reads a Wall Street Journal headline today: “Powell puts rate cuts back into view.”

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold at near 2-week high as soft US data lifts Fed rate-cut bets – “Gold prices rose more than 1% to a near two-week high on Wednesday, driven by increased bets for a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve after recent U.S. data suggested that the labor market was softening. Spot gold was up 1.4% at $2,362.32 per ounce by 10:09 a.m. ET (1409 GMT). U.S. gold futures climbed 1.7% to $2,372.40. “The precious metals complex, as well as base metals, are rallying across the board on ADP and jobless claims data that reinforces the ‘softening economy’ narrative which will likely lead to the first rate cut in September,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. “Bulls are trying to get ahead of what many believe will finally be a weak payrolls report on Friday,” he added. First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits increased last week, while the number of people on jobless rolls rose further to a 2-1/2 year high towards the end of June, consistent with a gradual cooling in the labor market. A measure of U.S. services sector activity slumped to a four-year low in June amid a sharp drop in orders, potentially hinting at a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the second quarter. Following the U.S. data, the dollar slipped to a two-week low, making gold more attractive for other currency holders, while the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note slid. The market now sees a 68% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September as well as another cut in December. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Investors now look forward to the minutes from the U.S. central bank’s latest policy meeting due later in the day, and the non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for more clarity on U.S. rate cuts. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 3.4% to $30.52 per ounce, platinum gained 1.8% to $1,008.50 and palladium climbed 2.7% to $1,049.”

On the day gold closed up $36.80 at $2359.80, and silver closed up $1.20 at $30.55.

On Thursday Golddealer.com and the domestic markets were closed on the 4th of July.

On Friday the price of gold finished the week on a bullish note as prices moved towards $2385.00 and unemployment data suggests that interest rates will soon weaken. The latest technical picture, according to the experts, is also good news for both gold and silver. Still, without that expected interest rate cut the recent gains in both gold and silver will soften. But these developing trends offers both sides some happiness. The geopolitical picture is not improving regardless of the latest spin, so safe haven demand may increase because of Middle East troubles and continued Russian aggression. And if you are looking for a wild card, even the possibility of another Trump ticket will fire up the bulls.

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold prices rise to one-month high after US jobs report – “Gold prices extended gains on Friday to their highest level in a month following key U.S. jobs data the showed labor market was softening, lifting expectations around a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,371.58 per ounce as of 09:05 a.m. (1305 GMT). Bullion is up nearly 2% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,379.70. “Gold is trading at one-month highs as lower payroll revisions and yet another uptick in the unemployment rate help ‘cement’ a September rate cut,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. “Bulls are eyeing a return to $2,450 all-time highs if the Fed starts openly hinting at September,” he added. Data showed U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 206,000 jobs in June, slightly higher than the 190,000 new jobs estimated by economists polled by Reuters. Meanwhile, estimated job growth for May was revised down to 218,000 new jobs from 272,000, while April’s job growth was revised down to 108,000 new jobs from a previous 165,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, slightly higher than the estimated 4.0%. Following the data, U.S. interest-rate futures prices reflected continued market confidence in a September rate cut, with the implied probability remaining at about 72%. Traders are also pricing in a rising chance of a second rate cut in December. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. The dollar slipped to a three-week low against its rivals after the jobs data, making gold less expensive for other currency holders, while yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note crept lower. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.9% to $30.66 per ounce and is on track for its best week since May 17. Platinum rose 1.8% to $1,020.63 per ounce and palladium gained 0.3% to $1,020.28.

On the day gold closed up $28.70 at $2388.50, and silver closed up $0.84 at $31.39.

Platinum closed up $33.30 at $1035.30, and palladium closed up $1.60 at $1035.80.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage
. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at $2,382.60 and then at
$2,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,359.00 and then at $2,350.00. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above technical resistance at $32.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below support at the June low of $28.90. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $31.08 and then at $31.225. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $30.45 and then at $30.00.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

 

 

Posted on

Gold – A Choppy Week

Gold – A Choppy Week 

Commentary for Friday, June 28, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $3.20 at $2327.70, and silver closed up $0.32 at $29.24. It has been another one of those choppy weeks, with plenty of noise from both sides of the aisle. But all in all, gold is still holding ground above the $2300.00 support and silver is not exactly falling out of bed. Considering that the technical picture for both gold and silver has turned to the bearish side, I would call this rather quiet Friday close a win for the bulls. A win which will create breathing room next week. Last Friday gold closed at $2316.40 / silver at $29.57. On the week gold was higher by $11.30  and silver was down $0.33. Spreads are tight enough to suggest a stable market short term.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold dipped in the early trade touching $2324.00 and then reversed direction and moved to session highs of $2332.00, so we are off to the races in typical fashion as the bulls and bears continue to fight for the middle ground. It would appear the lack of fresh news is not helping either the bulls or the bears. The fear of higher interest rates hurts the bullish scenario, so the pros are looking for a market which continues to churn at the higher end of its current pricing range for both gold and silver. I would say that last week was not a barn burner for the physical market although the public was relatively active, and the oddsmakers are betting on higher gold and silver prices before year end which provides some bullish encouragement.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – “The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is scheduled for release on Friday. Additionally, speeches from at least five Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman, are expected to provide further insights into the Fed’s policy direction. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, which is beneficial for its price. Despite U.S. business activity reaching a 26-month high in June, price pressures have significantly decreased, indicating potential economic slowdown.”

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold gains on dollar retreat, focus on US inflation data – “Gold prices rose on Monday, helped by a pullback in the dollar, while investors looked forward to U.S. inflation data due later this week that could offer more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Spot gold was up 0.3% to $2,327.81 per ounce as of 10:01 a.m. ET (1401 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,340.80. The dollar fell 0.5% against its rivals, making gold attractive for other currency holders. Gold is in consolidation mode here and we see active buying on dips. Traders are looking for the trajectory of interest rates moving forward and the timing of those potential rate cuts, said David Meger, director of alternative investments and trading at High Ridge Futures. Focus this week will on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which is due on Friday. Also on the radar, at least five Fed officials will speak this week, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Governors Lisa Cook, and Michelle Bowman. Traders are currently pricing in a 66% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. “We believe gold can hit $3,000/oz over the next 12-18 months, although flows do not justify that price level right now,” BofA said in a research note. “Achieving this would require non-commercial demand to pick up from current levels, which in turn needs a Fed rate cut to happen. An inflow into physically backed ETFs and a pick-up in LBMA clearing volumes would be an encouraging first signal.” Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.3% to $29.60 per ounce and platinum gained 1.1% to $1,003.07. Palladium climbed 6.3% to $1,008.32. In the previous session, prices hit a one-month high and breaking above the key level of $1,000 per troy ounce in volatile trade as some investors covered their short positions and the market was tight for nearby physical supply.”

On the day gold closed up $13.60 at $2330.00, and silver closed down $0.08 at $29.49.

On Tuesday gold pricing continued to move within a very tight $18.00 range, finishing the day mildly in the red. It initially rallied ($2336.00) to session highs and dipped to session lows $2318.00. Insiders believe that this back and forth action will continue through the week unless there is something amiss in the fresh economic data.

The first quarter GDP will be out on Thursday and the Personal Consumer Expenditures, which is a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households in the US will be out on Friday. Our trading desk is steady, buyers and sellers split with the most popular bullion gold coin being the US 1 oz Eagle. There is also fresh interest in sealed monster boxes (500 coins) of the 1 oz US Silver Eagle. The public, I believe, is still focused on the longer term.

Reuters (Polina Devitt) – Gold slides as investors await more clarity on US rate path – “Gold prices fell on Tuesday as investors awaited the U.S. inflation data due later this week to gain more certainty on the timing of future U.S. rate cuts, while a weaker Chinese currency supported demand in Asia. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,326.24 per ounce by 1247 GMT. The non-yielding bullion is down 4.7% from a record high of $2,449.89 touched on May 20 amid a rally which happened against traditional headwinds such as a strong dollar and high interest rates. “Gold has de-coupled from its traditional drivers just now and the prices are driven by sentiment in China amongst new players who are taking highly leveraged positions,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. “The problem for them is they have driven prices above where most others see the fair value price of gold. So it is yo-yo’ing in a trading range on relatively light volumes with modest participation from US and European investors.” In China, yuan hit its weakest since mid-November against the dollar on Tuesday, supporting demand for gold from local investors looking for a currency depreciation hedge. The yuan is set for its sixth straight monthly decline in June. “Whether the West adjusts its perception of the fair value price of gold upwards and participates more fully, or the East lowers its expectations for prices downwards as gravity takes hold is the key question”. In the West, traders were waiting for the U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimates due on Thursday and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report on Friday. “The upside price potential for gold is limited in the short term, as the first interest rate cut in the US is expected to take place at the end of the year,” Commerzbank. Meanwhile, global physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a crucial category of demand, saw inflows last week of $212 million, or 2.1 metric tons, according to the World Gold Council. It estimates the net outflows since the start of 2024 at $7.3 billion.”

On the day gold closed down $13.40 at $2316.60, and silver closed down $0.65 at $28.84.

On Wednesday the price of gold held up in the early trade but finally dipped below the psychologically important $2300.00 support and finished the day in the red. This must be disappointing to the bulls, but I still believe that there is not as much downside here as some might have you believe because the world geopolitical situation is unsettling. The relationship between Russia, China, Iran, and Israel is unstable. Still, higher interest rates continue to “grind” on the price of gold and lower prices in the short term are becoming more of a possibility.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold falls near two-week low as dollar strengthens – “Gold prices fell to their lowest in nearly two weeks on Wednesday as the dollar firmed, while investors awaited a report on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge due later this week for the latest clues on the central bank’s rate cut prospects. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,308.00 per ounce by 1059 GMT, hitting its lowest since June 14. U.S. gold futures also fell 0.5% to $2,319.50. “Gold flashed red on Wednesday thanks to hawkish comments from a Fed official in the previous session and a stronger dollar,” said FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Tuesday reiterated her view that holding the policy rate steady “for some time” will probably be enough to bring inflation under control, but also repeated her willingness to raise borrowing costs if needed. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The dollar rose 0.3% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders, while benchmark 10-year yields also edged higher. “This could be a wild week for gold due to economic and political forces. The Biden Vs. Trump face off and PCE report could inject the precious metal with renewed volatility. In the near term, support can be found at $2300 and resistance at $2340,” said Otunuga. Investors will be watching out for the U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product estimates and a crucial debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump on Thursday, and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report on Friday.”

On the day gold closed down $17.40 at $2299.20, and silver closed up $0.07 at $28.91.

On Thursday the price of gold moved higher on the open, touching $2325.00, which is a bit surprising considering the reasonable dip we saw in prices yesterday. The dollar was somewhat weaker as the Dollar Index moved from 106.00 to 105.80, welcomed by the bulls but not a large enough push to create this latest bounce to the upside. It may be that insiders believe that gold support is not going away anytime soon, despite higher interest rates.

I can’t get my head around higher gold prices and higher interest rates, at least on the short term. But today’s nice bounce is significant – a plus for the gold bulls. If the $2300.00 support level eventually gives way, traders  may gain insight, especially if the drop is not significant – a real possibility, and another plus for the bulls. All of this to say that the price of gold may have stabilized at this two week low, a third plus for the bulls. So bullish sentiment seems to be firming up, perhaps the public believes the inflation genie is already out of the bottle.

Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold rises as traders brace for US inflation report – “Gold prices rose on Thursday as the dollar softened, with the market spotlight on key U.S. inflation data that could offer cues on the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $2,314.22 per ounce, as of 1127 GMT, after falling on Wednesday to its lowest level since June 10. U.S. gold futures were 0.5% higher at $2,324.60. The dollar index weakened 0.2% after hitting a nearly two-month high in the previous session. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive for other currency holders. U.S. gold futures were 0.5% higher at $2,324.60. “Gold is finding support from a moderating U.S. dollar, with traders also aware that dips below $2,300 since April have so far proven short-lived,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. “If the prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts by end-2024 are further diluted, gold bulls may ultimately relinquish their bid to sustain bullion above the psychological $2,300 level.” Traders are currently pricing in about a 62% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated on Wednesday her view that “inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady.” Data lined up for the week includes U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product estimates, and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Friday. “Gold prices remain tangled in a tug of war between a less-dovish Fed and high levels of geopolitical tension,” analysts at BMI said in a note dated Wednesday. In the Middle East, cross-border strains between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have been escalating in recent weeks, stoking fears of an Israel-Hezbollah war that could draw in other regional powers.”

On the day gold closed up $25.30 at $2324.50, and silver closed up $0.01 at $28.92.

On Friday the price of gold moved between $2324.00 and $2338.00, finishing the day only mildly in the green, after a rough week of volatile pricing. Still, there seems to be a bit of stability around existing support for both gold and silver.

Across our trading desk the volume numbers remain solid, even with this week’s back and forth days of decision. Which might suggest the public is beginning to ignore rate hike speculation.

Reuters (Rahul Paswan) – Gold gleams on rate cut hopes after inflation data, en route quarterly gain – “Gold prices steadied on Friday and were headed for a third straight quarterly gain after a key U.S. inflation report came broadly in line with expectations, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by September. Spot gold was steady at $2,328.29 per ounce, as of 1558 GMT. Prices have gained over 4% for the quarter. “We are continuing on trend in a very incremental slow pullback of inflation. As a result, we’ve seen yields continue to creep lower, bonds creep higher and that is somewhat supportive for the gold market,” said David Meger, director of alternative investments and trading at High Ridge Futures. Gold was also supported by a decline in the U.S. Treasury yields, which makes the non-yielding bullion more attractive for investors. On Friday, market bets rose on hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September and do so again in December after a government report showed inflation by the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) did not rise at all from April to May. PCE last month followed an unrevised 0.3% gain in April data, while consumer spending rose moderately. Traders are currently pricing in about a 68% chance of a rate cut in September, compared with 64% before the release of the inflation data, according to CME FedWatch tool.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly – also a member of the 2024 Federal Open Market Committee – said the latest data showing inflation did not rise at all from April to May is “good news that policy is working.”  “The price of gold has been trading in a fairly tight range and will probably hold this range until the FOMC confirms they will be cutting rates,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.7% to $29.27 and platinum gained 1.1% to $998.65. Both metals were set for quarterly gains. Spot palladium rose over 5% to $978.50, but was headed for a third straight quarterly drop.

On the day gold closed up $3.20 at $2327.70, and silver closed up $0.32 at $29.24.

Platinum closed up $10.20 at $1001.90, and palladium closed up $50.30 at $977.90.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures prices hit a 3.5-month low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old  downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to  produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears’ next near-term  downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical  support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at $1,930.00 and then at this  week’s high of $1,943.40. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,911.40 and  then at $1,900.00. July silver futures bears have  the overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy, seven-week-old price  downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price  objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The  next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid  support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.15 and  then at $23.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.435 and then at  the June low of $22.14.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

 

Posted on

Gold – Another Surprise!

Gold – Another Surprise! 

Commentary for Friday, June 21, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $37.40 at $2316.40, and silver closed down $1.21 at $29.57. While the early market trade was flat, traders in a rather surprising turn sold this market and gold plummeted towards $2310.00. The reason behind this surprise is the latest PMI numbers. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing. It’s based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. Activity in the manufacturing sector today rose to a three month high, and activity in the service sector has risen to a 26 month high! Business activity is accelerating and according to some this is not increasing inflation. This supports the notion that the Fed will not be forced to lower interest rates, increasing bearish sentiment and creating lower prices in both gold and silver today. Whether this fresh news will hold water a few weeks from now remains to be seen, but today’s action was unexpected. Last Friday gold closed at $2331.40 / silver at $29.40 on the week gold was down $15.00 and silver was higher by $0.17.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold was again choppy between $2308.00 and $2326.00, a narrow range for the beginning of the week. The initial upward bias however reversed itself and gold finished the day in the red. The dollar remains strong likely because the US economy is doing nicely, which augers against higher prices for gold and silver in the shorter term. Still, the price ranges for both gold and silver seems to be steady, suggesting a stable trade in the short term.

Experts point to a technical advantage for both gold and silver, but the lack of fresh news has slowed the physical market, and the buzz continues to diminish. Investors seem to be equally split on interest rate expectation. About half (the bullish side) believe the Fed will soon be forced to at least reduce interest rates. The other half (the bearish side) are convinced that the Fed will continue with higher interest rates the rest of this year. Tough call, even the professionals seriously disagree, which basically means we may remain stuck with these price ranges for months, which tends to hurt the physical market because investors lose interest.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Bounce Around in a Range – “The gold market pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Monday, but we are still in an area that’s been very noisy and important. So, I do think it is probably only a matter of time before the buyers come back into the market. It’s probably worth noting that the 50 day EMA continues to slice through the consolidation area. And therefore, I think there is a certain amount of technical analysis that comes into this picture to offer a little bit of technical support and perhaps algorithmic support, depending on who’s out there putting money into the market. Underneath there, we have the $2,300 level, which of course has been supported for quite some time, which extends down to the $2,280 level. A break above the highs of the day opens up the possibility of a move to the $2,370 level, possibly a move to the $2,400 level after that. Keep in mind, gold has plenty of reasons to go higher, although pulling back is possible at this point, but given enough time, I think we do see the market try to get to that $2,400 level for no other reason than perhaps geopolitics. If we do break down below $2,280, then there are plenty of areas of support underneath, especially near the $2,200 level, maybe even the $2,150 level where the 200-day EMA sits. Regardless, this is a market though, that I don’t have any interest in shorting, and I do think it’s more likely than not we see a bit of a bounce from this region.”

On the day gold closed down $19.00 at $2312.40, and silver closed down $0.07 at $29.33.

On Tuesday the price of gold mildly dipped in the early trade but quickly recovered and closed on session highs of $2330.00, likely because the US retail sales for May was revised downward and the US dollar was weaker. Still the technical picture for gold may be turning flat which might suggest there is not much upside in the shorter term. But the longer gold remains above the psychologically important $2300.00 level the better for longer term bullish sentiment.

A reasonable dip below $2300.00 may create additional momentum selling but the downside at that point may not be as much as some might expect. And if the Fed turns to the dovish side in the process higher gold prices, perhaps even all-time highs may be in the making.

You have heard this dialogue before, as investors and traders move between the higher or lower interest rates options. At the same time, it is worth noting that the World Gold Council claims that 29% of world banks plan to buy more gold in 2024. Which supports the bullish scenario.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Pulls Back to Major Support – “Gold markets pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday in the early hours, as it looks like we are going to continue to see the $2,300 level as important support. The $2,300 level has been tested multiple times before, and now it looks like we’re just bouncing along the bottom of what appears to be a larger consolidation phase between $2,300 on the bottom and $2,400 on the top. We obviously have to ask a lot of questions about the Federal Reserve and whether or not they are going to be cutting, because now people are suggesting that there’s only going to be one cut between now and the end of the year, even out there suggesting that there will be none. So, with that, you have to recognize that the gold market is going to be very noisy in general. If we were to break down below the $2,280 level, then I think it opens up even more significant selling pressure. The market breaking down below the $2,280 level could open up a move down to the $2,200 level, possibly down to the $2,150 level where the 200-day EMA currently resides. Nonetheless, this is a market that I think, regardless, you’re going to be looking to buy dips. I don’t know what it’s going to take to get to the $2,400 level again, but at this point in time, I do think we will return there sooner or later. There are plenty of geopolitical concerns out there that will continue to cause headaches and therefore I think there will be a lot of demand for gold. Furthermore, central banks are big buyers and of course treasuries around the world are borrowing money hand over fist and that typically helps gold as well.”

On the day gold closed up $18.00 at $2330.40, and silver closed up $0.18 at $29.51.

On Wednesday the price of gold first rose to session highs ($2334.00) and then dipped to session lows ($2325.00), but still managed to close nicely in the green by the end of the trading day. So, while this trade is “frothy” for lack of a better word, gold remains above the important $2300.00 support, which is a bullish plus and may portend even higher prices sooner than later.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold gains traction on weak US economic data – “Gold prices edged up on Wednesday after data suggesting lackluster U.S. economic activity kept alive hopes for at least one interest rate cut this year. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,330.27 per ounce as of 1156 GMT. Prices rose about 0.4% in the previous session. U.S. retail sales barely rose in May and figures for the prior month were revised considerably lower, data showed on Tuesday, suggesting economic activity remained lackluster in the second quarter. That slightly boosted the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 67% from 61% a day earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed. The main drive for gold’s price action remains the market expectations over the Fed’s monetary policy and despite prices creeping up, the move is quite subdued as the market waits for more substantial news, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “Market expectations point to at least one rate cut from the Fed. That scenario has been fully priced in the value of the dollar. Government purchases (of gold) remain stable as well. So, unless there is any significant change in this scenario, prices are expected to remain supported above the $2,300 level,” Evangelista said. Gold prices rose about 1.3% last Friday on signs of inflation cooling in the United States amid a selloff across European equities as French stocks were battered by political turmoil. Political uncertainty surrounding Europe can be a positive, with elections in France and the UK nearing, Kinesis Money market analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said. The more immediate focus, however, is on the U.S. weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and flash purchasing managers’ indexes on Friday. Spot silver was up 0.1% at $29.54 per ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $983.45 and palladium gained 1.9% to $904.00.

On the day gold closed up $18.00 at $2330.40, and silver closed up $0.18 at $29.51.

On Thursday the gold momentum bulls managed to capitalize on yesterday’s rising optimism as the early trade challenged $2365.00 and silver surged more than a dollar. All this bullish happiness is of course based on the notion that our economy is slowing down, and the Fed will cut interest rates this year. This speculation may be misplaced, because the Fed can have it cake and eat it too by lowering rates only a small amount, perhaps a quarter point. The optimistic reader will claim that even a quarter point starts the ball rolling, and that is correct, but I’m not convinced the Fed will turn from its hawkish viewpoint so easily. The FOMC is now tapping the interest rate breaks trying to find the “right” number. Fingers crossed, if you get my drift.

Neils Christensen (Kitco) – Gold and silver caught in prolonged consolidation but prices will head higher – Saxo Bank – “Although gold and silver are stuck in neutral at elevated levels, one market analyst remains a long-term bull on precious metals. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, published a report Tuesday saying investors and traders are just catching their breath after the market’s nearly $250 rally from its February lows to its peak above $2450 an ounce last month. Hansen added that although gold has lost some momentum, there is very little bearish sentiment in the marketplace as investors and money managers see no urgency to take profits. He explained that many hedge funds jumped into gold when prices were still below $2,200 an ounce. This sentiment is helping gold hold sticky support at around $2,300 an ounce. “It is clear that the bulk of the run-up in prices back in February and March was supported by strong demand from managed money traders, such as hedge funds. Having joined the rally at an early stage, they have subsequently not been forced to adjust (sell) positions as the current correction phase has kept prices above levels that otherwise would have forced them to reduce their exposure,” he said in the report. “Getting on board early and at much lower levels helps explain why the current gold volatility is relatively low compared with other metals such as silver, platinum, and copper, where speculators joined a bit later and at higher prices, leaving them more exposed to long liquidation and with that, the risk of a deeper correction,” Hansen added. Hansen said that one of the biggest pillars of support in the marketplace comes from gold’s role as a safe-haven asset and hedge against market risks as geopolitical uncertainty continues to impact the global economy. At the same time, Hansen said that growing sovereign debt is forcing central banks to continue to diversify their foreign reserves away from the U.S. dollar. As to how long gold and silver’s prolonged consolidation will last, Hansen said that is up to the Federal Reserve. He noted that while retail investors in Asia and central banks continue to support the market, it is still missing a key component: investor demand. “Gold and silver continue to see limited interest from ETF investors who have remained mostly net sellers since 2022 when the FOMC began its aggressive rate-hiking campaign, raising the cost of carry, or opportunity cost, of holding a non-coupon-paying metal investment. Demand from ETF investors will remain likely subdued until interest rates are lowered, and this cost is reduced”.

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold rises 1% to two-week peak as Fed rate cut bets lift demand – “Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday to their highest level in two weeks, as recent U.S. economic data showing signs of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy boosted bets for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Spot gold was up 1% at $2,351.55 per ounce as of 10:04 a.m. ET (1404 GMT), its highest since June 7. U.S. gold futures rose 0.8% to $2,365.50. “The market is starting to increasingly expect the U.S. central bank to start its easing program. I suspect we might be getting some long positions getting installed into the market,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. U.S. jobless claims fell in the latest week, data showed, suggesting a generally stable labor market. U.S. single-family homebuilding in May fell 5.2% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 982,000 units. Last week’s data showed a moderation in the labor market and price pressures, followed up with soft retail sales data on Tuesday, suggesting that economic activity remained lackluster in the second quarter. “The precious metals bulls are more confident late this week, following the weaker U.S. retail sales report earlier this week,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals, in a note. Traders are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Safe-haven demand, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as well as persistent central bank buying contributed to a rally in gold from March to May, taking spot prices to a record high of $2,449.89 on May 20. Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.1% to $30.37 per ounce, platinum eased 0.1% to $979.45 and palladium gained 1.7% to $920.00.”

On the day gold closed up $23.40 at $2353.80, and silver closed up $1.27 at $30.78.

On Friday the price of gold fell out of bed, moving from the possibility of higher prices on Thursday to the unsettling notion that gold may now break down at the important $2300.00 support. This sudden change from bullish to bearish is nothing new for traders but this latest information seems to have overwhelmed the paper trade and many insiders are looking for even lower prices in gold and silver. But is this entirely warranted? This market has been churning for some time now and the difference between bullish and bearish is only a few hundred dollars. This latest dip may only test support at $2300.00. So, take a breath and enjoy your weekend, pricing, in my opinion should settle next week. The key is to realize that there is nothing that can replace gold or silver as a unique financial asset. Physical possession became much more important as Kim Jong Un and Putin signed a mutual defense pact in North Korea this week. “Strange bedfellows” is a phrase coined by Shakespeare. Its full context is “Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.” It means finding oneself in a difficult situation which forces one to associate with unsavory people. AP today says that South Korea will consider supplying arms to Ukraine after Russia and North Korea signed a strategic pact.

On the day gold closed down $37.40 at $2316.40, and silver closed down $1.21 at $29.57.

Platinum closed up $7.50 at $981.10, and palladium closed up $12.70 at $918.10.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $2,304.20. First resistance is seen at $2,390.00 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,368.60 and then at $2,300.00. July silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.67. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the June low of $28.73. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $30.905 and then at $31.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $30.28 and then at $30.00.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

Posted on

Gold – Short Term Uncertainty 

Gold – Short Term Uncertainty 

Commentary for Friday, June 14, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $31.20 at $2331.40, and silver closed up $0.41 at $29.40. Gold and silver prices are still trying to get on their feet after the rather dramatic reaction to last week’s economic and inflation rhetoric. But gold and silver traders seemed to shake off this hangover as both finished the day in the green. This trading week has been a series of up and down drafts driven by interest rate confusion. The Fed kept rates steady on Wednesday and is now looking for only one rate cut in 2024 despite inflation progress. Chief Powell’s public comments after the meeting open the door to a more liberal understanding of inflation and is reflected in the rising optimism that rates will be cut by September. Yet even a small rate cut will put the bulls in the driver’s seat as some economists now claim Fed policy is outdated. The National Association for Business Economics poll published Monday showed 21% of respondents considered the US central bank’s current monetary policy stance to be “too restrictive” – the most since 2011. Insiders will, of course, keep their seatbelts fastened and expect more volatility. Last Friday gold closed at $2305.20 / silver at $29.34 on the week gold was higher by $26.20 and silver was higher by $0.06.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of both gold and silver steadied. A big relief to traders after last Friday’s debacle in which gold fell $65.10 and silver followed along losing $1.92. Today the price of gold moved between $2294.00 and $2310.00, and silver moved between $29.45 and $29.80. While today’s price ranges may not seem worth noting, they are calming to everyone concerned because many believed today would be a continuation of the steep declines we saw last week. This is a relief rally for lack of better words, and prices will be watched carefully this week.

Friday’s market rhetoric which created this surprise mess was hyperbolic and suggested that a seismic shift in demand and inflation may be in the making. But in hindsight was probably overdone. The problem with the CFTC’s leveraged paper trade is that it can move from bullish to bearish on a dime, creating the volatility we saw last Friday. For now the bulls are happy that prices are not moving lower. The bears are ready, just in case lower prices are right around the corner. That being said the possibility of even lower prices should be part of your defensive plan.

A reminder that physical markets should be approached with a longer view in mind. Buying the dips make sense but under the circumstances use caution. If you believe we are moving lower soon, adjust your total position and calm your situation. Keep in mind that even with the dramatic dip in the price of gold and silver, gold is holding around $2300.00 and silver around $30.00…not exactly the end of the world if you get my drift. This is still a “stay tuned” market.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold ticks up after sharp sell-off; focus shifts to US inflation data, Fed – “Gold prices regained some ground on Monday, after dropping the most in three-and-a-half years in the previous session, as data out of China and the U.S. disappointed speculators betting on Chinese demand and an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,304.92 per ounce as of 1200 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,323.20. Bullion lost about $83 on Friday, declining 3.5% in its biggest one-day drop since November 2020 after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report dented hopes for a September rate cut and news on China’s central bank holding off gold purchases put off investors betting on Chinese demand. “People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has never been a constant buyer. There have been distinct phases of buying followed by multi-month breaks. But, as long as the PBOC doesn’t resume buying, gold prices could trade sideways because the China buying topic is a key market focus,” Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said. “Given that we had this decisive sentimental move on Friday, I’d be very surprised if we get a similar-sized volatility outbreak this week again unless there’s a major surprise on the CPI side or the Fed side, but that seems quite unlikely.” Market focus has shifted to the U.S. consumer inflation report, due on Wednesday, the same day as the Fed’s policy decision. The U.S. central bank is not expected to make any change this week, and focus will be on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and changes to economic projections from policymakers. Bets of the Fed cutting rates in September fell to 49% from around 70% before the jobs data. “We expect a lift in the Federal Reserve’s median “dots plots” to two cuts in 2024 (from three); but inflation should still moderate, and a September cut is our base case,” UBS said in a note. Spot silver rose 2.1% to $29.77 per ounce, platinum was up 0.1% at $964.73 and palladium climbed 0.7% to $918.55.”

On the day gold closed up $2.50 at $2307.70, and silver closed up $0.43 at $29.77.

On Tuesday the price of gold climbed to $2318.00 and silver to $29.50 which is a bit surprising considering the Dollar Index has moved from 104.00 through 105.50 since last Friday. This may provide some encouragement to the bulls in that it suggests interest in the metals even as bearish sentiment is moving higher. Both gold and silver closed virtually unchanged today, but this trade feels heavy even considering the small respite the bulls enjoyed yesterday.

The FOMC meets today and Wednesday, expectations being that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. Which is a challenge to current support levels for both gold and silver. Chief Powell will speak publicly this week, and he has a way of convincing the crowd that they can have their cake and eat it too. Still, many are beginning to believe interest rates will remain “higher for longer”. Which suggests lower metal prices may still be in the cards.

This quandary may not take long to resolve, which is a plus for the metals. If prices do move lower, it actually increases stability given that gold and silver do not fall out of bed. An event most professionals do not think has much of a possibility even with all the short term drama.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Prices Decline as Dollar Strengthens and Fed Meeting Approaches – “Gold prices remain under pressure, continuing their bearish trend after a steep sell-off last Friday. The metal is trading below its 50-day moving average, indicating weakness in the intermediate term. At 10:38 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2307.650, down $3.345 or -0.14%. U.S. Dollar Gains Ahead of Key Reports – “On Tuesday, gold prices fell as the U.S. dollar strengthened. Investors are positioning themselves ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate forecasts. The dollar’s rise of 0.1% makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, reflecting their inverse relationship. Support Levels and Market Focus – “Gold is nearing the support level at $2,277.34. If the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows higher-than-expected inflation, the likelihood of the Fed delaying rate cuts could push gold prices below this level. Furthermore, if the Fed’s dot plot indicates minimal or no rate cuts this year, gold could face additional downward pressure. Federal Reserve Meeting and Projections – “The Federal Reserve’s June meeting starts on Tuesday, with a policy decision expected on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, economic projections are anticipated to show fewer rate cuts than previously expected due to persistent inflation. High interest rates reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, as investors prefer bonds and other yielding investments. Treasury Yields and Investor Sentiment – “U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as investors awaited the Fed’s policy decision and key economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped four basis points to 4.4256%, while the 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.8488%. Investors are closely watching the Fed’s guidance for any hints about future policy moves. Market Forecast: Bearish Outlook – “Considering the current strength of the U.S. dollar, the approaching CPI report, and the expected Fed stance on interest rates, the short-term outlook for gold remains bearish. If inflation data and Fed projections support a delay in rate cuts, gold prices are likely to break below the key support level of $2,277.34. Traders should stay vigilant and monitor these developments closely as they impact the gold market. Technical Analysis – “XAU/USD’s intermediate trend continues to be controlled by the 50-day moving average, which is showing signs of flattening after providing support and direction since February 29. This makes $2344.03 the key level to watch today. A sustained move under the 50-day MA will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, then look for the selling to possibly extend into the last swing bottom at $2277.34. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target bottom coming in at $2146.15.”

On the day gold closed down $0.20 at $2307.50, and silver closed down $0.64 at $29.13.

On Wednesday the price of gold surged in the early domestic trade, a surprise challenge to $2340.00, which quickly settled. Still, gold finished nicely in the green for the day. This challenge was high enough to convince some traders that gold may be oversold. That remains to be seen but inflation numbers seem to have cooled in May which could give the Fed room to ease interest rates later this year. This story has faded in and out of the daily metals trade for months so while it does gather interest some believe this inflation data may be transitory and therefore discounted to some degree. The Fed has made no secret about its primary mandate to tame these still strong inflation numbers. Which to me suggests that rates will remain unchanged, perhaps through the end of this year obviously discouraging bullish sentiment. The question at this point is how much gold will be discounted before the Fed begins to lower rates?

Reuters (Brijesh Patel and Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold rush to endure through 2024 though $3,000 mark may prove elusive – “Gold’s lightning rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing in the second half of 2024 as the fundamental case for bullion remains firmly in place, though $3,000 per ounce looks just out of reach, traders and industry experts said. Investors have flocked in droves towards the precious metal, driven by expectations for monetary easing, geopolitical tension in Europe and the Middle East and – most notably – central bank purchases led by China. Spot gold is trading around $2,300 per ounce after hitting a record $2,449.89 on May 20, gaining more than 11% so far this year. “There are lots of reasons driving gold right now…, but one of the major factors is China,” Ruth Crowell, CEO of the London Bullion Market Association, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Precious Metals conference in Singapore. “Usually, China and Japan have been budget shoppers, but given the state of the economy, real estate challenges and equity markets, gold is a safe choice… I think gold is going to be of interest for some time.” Central banks across the globe, especially China, have been ramping up reserves held in gold due to currency depreciation and geopolitical and economic risks. Bullion is traditionally known as a favored hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, thriving in a low-interest rate environment. Physical demand for gold is strong, but we have not seen retail investment demand coming in yet like exchange-traded funds, demand from the United States…I see prices reaching $2,600 – $2,700 very easily this year,” said Amar Singh, Head of Metals – Asia Pacific and Middle East at StoneX. As investors seek clarity on the timing of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the November U.S. elections are likely to add more volatility to the market, analysts said. While most of the analysts and traders remain bullish on gold, the possibility of the precious metal surpassing $3,000 per ounce looks remote at this point, they said. “It’s not a case of some particular factor holding back gold but rather that $3,000 would mean another 30% from here, which is quite a lot given we have already had some hefty gains,” said Nikos Kavalis, managing director, Metals Focus. Silver Performs – Silver, both an investment asset and an industrial metal used in electronics and solar panels, has performed well on the back of gold’s strength and firm physical demand. The metal was trading at $29.20 per ounce on Tuesday, close to a more than 11-year peak scaled in May. “The future is bright for silver with respect to its use in green energy transition. Also, there is further room for gold prices to go higher and silver prices will follow as well,” said Michael DiRienzo, president & CEO of The Silver Institute. India’s silver imports in the first four months of the year have already surpassed the total for all of 2023, on rising demand from the solar panel industry and as investors bet on an outperformance versus gold, government and industry officials told Reuters last month. The silver market is currently in the fourth year of a structural market deficit due to expectations of higher industrial demand, Metals Focus said in research produced for industry body the Silver Institute.”

On the day gold closed up $28.50 at $2336.00, and silver closed up $1.05 at $30.18.

On Thursday gold was choppy between $2325.00 and $2295.00, so was silver moving between $29.70 and $28.40. Both metals tested support after weeks of mixed sentiment and each finished the day in the red as they struggled against the specter of higher interest rates. The daily price swings in gold have been volatile this month. But it is trading today for the same price as it was 30 days ago, so short term gains have evaporated. Its price gain over the past year, however, is higher by $400.00, suggesting that profit taking is becoming a more important option.

At the same time the Fed seems to have turned a bit to the dovish side judging by Powell’s public statements this week. Gold is still holding around $2300.00 and silver around $29.00 but these support levels are being tested and the technical picture of both metals has lost its buzz, leading to speculation that lower prices may be in the offing. Still this recent Barron’s headline is a plus for the bulls – “Markets remain confident of cuts despite the Fed.” For now, however, higher interest rates create a volatile market, uncertainty and lower prices.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Markets Continues to Show Noise – “The gold market fell a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are testing the $2,300 level again, and of course we are trading right around the 50 day EMA. In general, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that the markets have a lot to try to digest in the form of geopolitical events, the interest rate situation, and of course, just profligate spending by the central banks around the world, the treasury departments, US Treasury specifically. So, with that being said, I do think that eventually we will have buyers coming back into the market and taking advantage of cheap gold as it were. This is an area that I would expect to be supported, perhaps down to the $2,280 level. If we break down below there, then we probably go looking for a buying opportunity between the $2,200 level and the $2,150 level. In general, that’s an area that I think defines the trend, especially considering that the 200-day EMA sits there as well. If we can break above the shooting star from the Wednesday session, then I think we go looking to the $2,400 level. This is an area that I think will continue to be resistant, but if we can clear that level, we are likely to go much higher at this point.”

On the day gold closed down $35.80 at $2300.20, and silver closed down $1.19 at $28.99.

On Friday the price of gold surged to session highs ($2335.00) as traders worked their way through another volatile week in the metals. Still, this jump to higher ground today was a surprise as the Dollar Index made weekly highs (105.00). I think this is not so much counterintuitive as illustrative of gold’s ability to keep everyone honest in a troubled world coming to terms with rising inflation. I’m not sure where the price of gold or silver will go from here, but my resolve is certain. Gold and silver bullion are unique financial assets. Keeping their ownership private, outside the banking system, and away from government confiscation always makes sense. This approach may seem paranoid but it’s my favorite “just in case” scenario.

Reuters (Stephen Culp) – Wall St dips and gold surges, capping a tumultuous week – “U.S. stocks dipped and gold surged on Friday at the conclusion of a week fraught with the apparent contradiction of cooling economic data and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields extended their slide, while the dollar gained ground against a basket of world currencies amid geopolitical uncertainties in Europe. All three major U.S. stock indexes were moderately lower amid a broad sell-off in which economically sensitive industrials and transports. For the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are on track to advance, with the latter lining up its biggest weekly percentage gain since late April. The Dow looks to be headed to end the week lower than last Friday’s close. “There’s a lot of cross currents going on,” said Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. “Are we worried about the economy and the Fed or are we taking a breather?” “We have been at all-time highs and we’re just taking a breather here and adjusting to the new rate cut scenario,” Martin added.

The Fed capped its two-day monetary policy meeting with no change to its key interest rate, as expected. But in its Summary of Economic Projections, the central bank reduced the number of its projected rate cut this year from three to one, striking a more hawkish than expected tone. he sting was soothed by a series of economic indicators, which showed inflation is cooling faster than analysts projected, which could convince the data-dependent Fed to reconsider the timing and number of cuts this year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester called the recent cooling inflation data “welcome,” in the wake of the week’s CPI and PPI reports, which came in below analyst expectations.”

On the day gold closed up $31.20 at $2331.40, and silver closed up $0.41 at $29.40.

Platinum closed up $4.00 at $955.30, and palladium closed up $13.20 at $890.60.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the June high of $2,406.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $2,304.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,358.80 and then at $2,375.00. First support is seen at $2,330.00 and then at the overnight low of $2,316.70. July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $29.83 and then at $30.00. Next support is seen at $29.00 and then at this week’s low of $28.73.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

Posted on

Gold – What a Ride!

Gold – What a Ride!

Commentary for Friday, June 7, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $65.10 today at $2305.20, and silver closed down $1.91 at $29.34. Another surprise finish to a week of very volatile pricing as traders move between bullish and bearish scenarios for both gold and silver. The trading quandary was in place, but difficult to see earlier this week as the Bank of Canada and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The surprise trigger for this scary drop then whipsawed traders and was  threefold: A great employment picture from the Labor Department, a significantly stronger dollar, and news that China’s central bank will ease its gold purchases. Any one of these is enough to promote caution but all three going into the weekend have the bulls hiding under the bed, as anxiety soared, and gold dipped to a four month low. The implications of today’s conflicting picture presents the usual conundrum. Physical gold is a unique financial asset for central banks and safe haven protection. It has no substitute and is absolutely necessary to anchor the world’s fiat money machine. But today suggests that pricing volatility is not over by a long shot so it’s wise to keep your seat belts fastened. Last Friday gold closed at $2322.90 / silver at $30.30 on the week gold was down $17.70  and silver was down $0.96. These spreads are relatively modest only because both metals were much higher earlier in the week. It was the suddenness of the reversal that has shaken this market.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold was off to a good start this week pushing to session highs of $2350.00 as inflation cooled a bit and traders began again to think the Fed will cut interest rates sooner than later. I think this is too optimistic as we have visited this theory a few times since the beginning of this year only to find that Fed hawkishness remains deeply ingrained.

Unless Chief Powell sees a significant improvement in the numbers, they will not lower interest rates this year. Note the word significant, this has been the “go to” scenario for Jerome these past few years, as he takes his Federal mandate seriously. You might see a small change, like a quarter point if inflation continues to cool. But I don’t think a trend of lower interest rates will gain any momentum before next year. Look for small changes and FOMC hints that things are improving, but their primary goal is taming inflation. Across our trading desk we have seen a few larger sellers, so a cautionary note, all-time highs and profit taking hold hands.

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold firms on Fed rate cut hopes; investors await more US data – “Gold prices edged higher on Monday as signs of cooling U.S. inflation lifted hopes for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while traders awaited a slew of U.S. economic data due this week. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,331.84 per ounce as of 09:49 a.m. ET (1349 GMT), after posting a 2% gain last month. Prices hit an all-time high of $2,449.89 on May 20. “We’ve had a bit of a pullback, we’d prefer to call it a consolidation. But again, the underpinning positive bias really comes from strong expectation that we are moving towards a interest rate cuts at some point later this year,” said David Meger, director of alternative investments and trading at High Ridge Futures. Data on Friday showed that the U.S. inflation had stabilized in April, suggesting the U.S. central bank’s interest rate cut plans later this year remained intact. Traders are currently pricing in about a 56% chance of a cut in September, according to CME FedWatch tool, opens new tab. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding bullion. Investors will examine the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) nationwide PMI reading, expected at 1400 GMT, Wednesday’s ADP employment report, and non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. “We still expect a slowdown (in U.S. economic data) will allow the Fed to cut interest rates later this year and this should lift gold prices,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Meanwhile, The European Central Bank is seen almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday, which could make it the first major central bank to cut rates this cycle. Elsewhere, spot silver eased 0.2% to $30.31 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.9% at $1,028.85 and palladium gained 1.8% to $929.54.”

On the day gold closed up $23.70 at $2346.60, and silver closed up $0.34 at $30.64.

On Tuesday the price of gold gave up yesterday’s gains in the early domestic trade as the number of jobs available dropped to its lowest level in more than 3 years according to the latest JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey). This is an example of what used to be good news turning into bad news for bulls. The still in place thinking that the labor market is weakening helped promote the notion that the Fed would loosen its monetary policy.

Now the bulls will fear the number of available jobs is moving lower, not moving higher. In other words, the economy is doing just fine and there may be no reason to lower interest rates at the present time. This diminishes the bullish gold scenario, and traders may turn bearish.

Is this latest bit of economic data a big deal? Not really, which is the point I was trying to make yesterday. The gold market is looking for anything which might support a short term guess as to price direction because traders in general are confused over the Fed’s next interest rate move.

This general confusion creates a classic “back and forth” pricing trade for gold. Higher one day and lower the next, still traders bought this latest weakness ($2317.00) which is a bullish plus.

The point being that long term physical holders should wait this turbulence out because most insiders see higher prices for both gold and silver bullion over the longer term. Why? Because the root cause which is behind the creation of $2300.00 gold and $30.00 silver is the creation of too much fiat (unbacked) paper money. The world has turned into a giant paper printing machine since the beginning of the pandemic, and I believe this alone will support even higher prices over the next decade. Today the JOLTS number and the drop in crude oil prices created a downdraft in prices. Tomorrow gold prices might move higher if the dollar weakens.

These day to day changes are transitory and can be nerve racking. But insiders know that they will correct over time. For now, ignore the chop and keep your eye on the bigger picture.

FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look for Support – “Gold markets continue to see a lot of noise, with a significant amount of support underneath the current levels. This is a market that has a lot of reasons to think that it could go higher at the moment. Looking at the gold market it is obvious that we are testing a certain amount of support in the general vicinity that we are trading right now. Underneath, we have the 50 day EMA offering plenty of support and the $2,300 level underneath is also an area that I think a lot of buyers are going to defend. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be noisy, but it does have quite a bit of upward pressure. Ultimately, if we can go higher, the$2400 level could be a target, which of course is the next major round figure. Above there, then we have the $2450 level as well. This is a market that has been very bullish and now looks as if it’s doing everything it can to work off some of the excess froth. I think that makes sense.”

On the day gold closed down $21.10 at $2325.50, and silver closed down $1.15 at $29.49.

On Wednesday the price of gold moved higher ($2355.00) as the Bank of Canada cut its lending rate a quarter of a point and ADP says the jobs created in May missed expectations. Both events are bullish for the price of gold because it again suggests that Fed may be forced to cut interest rates. But these short term crosswinds create only transient changes within a relatively narrow trading range. This pattern is common these days as traders look for something more substantial they can use to better understand longer term pricing trends.

An example of a longer term trend would be US 10 year treasury yields. Last October we were looking at 5.00%, today it is 4.28%, so they are moving lower – a plus for the price of gold. The technical picture suggests even lower yields are in the cards before year end. But until those rates materialize traders must live with the notion that this important data point remains uncertain.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Markets Continue to See Support – “Gold markets rallied slightly during the early hours on Wednesday, but quite frankly, we’re just hanging around. The 50-day EMA underneath will offer a bit of support, so pay close attention to that and it is sitting just above the $2,300 level, which of course is a large round number that a lot of people will be paying attention to. It’s the bottom of the overall range to begin with, and of course, like I said, it’s a big round number. If we were to break down below $2,300, that could kick off a sharper decline, but I see massive amounts of support at various places underneath with the most obvious one being the $2,150 level where the 200-day EMA is rapidly approaching and where we had seen previous support. On the upside, if we can break out above the $2,365 level, it’s likely that we could go looking to the $2,400 level and then eventually the $2,450 level. I do think gold has plenty to think positively about it, not the least of which would be geopolitical concerns as the world seemingly is trying to march towards some type of major conflict between the United States, NATO, and Russia. And then of course we have the borrowing, the profligate spending by countries around the world, again involving the United States, borrowing a trillion dollars every 90 days. Sooner or later, that adds up to real money. With this being the case, it is a market that I like buying dips, but it just looks like right now, we’re trying to work off some of the excess froth that has been thrown into this environment.”

On the day gold closed up $28.60 at $2354.10, and silver closed up $0.46 at $29.95.

On Thursday the price of gold dipped on the open ($2354.00) but quickly recovered and finished the day mildly in the green as the European Central Bank cut interest rates 25 basis points. While the rate cut was minor and expected the ECB is the second world bank to cut rates this week, the first being the Bank of Canada. Which reinforces to some degree the notion that interest rates will be moving lower this year. Whether the US follows along remains to be seen but this interest rate dance is perhaps the most important factor in determining the price of gold in both the short and long term. But it is not the only important factor, which makes the end result more complex when considered over the long term. Still, there is no substitute for physical gold bullion as far as world central banks are concerned. The same is true for safe haven demand. So, for now, we may not be making new highs anytime soon but there does not appear to be much downside here even at these elevated prices. Finally, most believe that interest rates are destined to move lower eventually, setting the stage for even higher gold prices.

FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Attempt a Move Higher – “The gold market initially rallied during the trading session on Thursday, but then gave back gains. The ECB cut rates, so we’ve seen a lot of noise and therefore we have to question whether or not gold really starts to take off due to the fact that it looks like central banks around the world are starting to cut. The $2,400 level above is a major round figure that a lot of people will be paying attention to. So, I look at that as a potential target. Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities from what I see, especially with the 50-day EMA underneath offering quite a bit of support just above the crucial and obvious $2,300 support level. This is a market that has been very noisy as of late, but the recent consolidation looks to be giving way to a breakout, so I do believe that we will continue to grind higher. I don’t think it’s going to be an easy move. I just think that it’s a move that is destined to happen. Short-term dips are buying opportunities and it’s not until we break down below 2275 that I’d be concerned about the short-term trend and even then, I would be looking for buying gold somewhere closer to the 2150 dollars level, which also features the 200 day EMA so that will of course be very important to pay attention to. Nonetheless, this is a market that I think favors the upside regardless and I would be very surprised to see us break down towards that region.”

On the day gold closed up $16.20 at $2370.30, and silver closed up $1.30 at $31.25.

On Friday the price of gold dropped from $2375.00 to $2310.00 in a matter of minutes, further confusing an already volatile week. It is fair to say that traders believe that the bullish gold and silver scenario has been damaged considerably. But I respectfully suggest that this is not the case, we are simply experiencing higher degrees of “chop” as the “worry” factor increases. This is not unusual, but it does create tension, especially within the physical trade. Whether gold and silver will continue lower next week will depend on whether traders buy this current dip. Keep in mind, however, that gold closed today at $2305.10 and bargain hunting began around $2310.00 which is a bullish plus. Silver closed today at $29.34 and bargain hunting began around $29.37, also a bullish plus. It is difficult to say where gold and silver will be in a decade, but most physical investors look for still higher prices because our fiat monetary system cannot stop increasing the money supply. Which is what got us into this financial mess in the first place.

Reuters (Harshit Verma and Rahul Paswan) – Gold slides over 2% on double blow of strong jobs report, China data – “Gold accelerated declines after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report doused expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts this year, adding to bearish sentiment driven by data showing top consumer China held off on bullion purchases in May. Spot gold dipped 2.7% to $2,312.20 per ounce as of 1520 GMT. U.S. gold futures dropped 2.5% to $2,330.10.

Caught in gold’s slipstream, silver shed 5.8% to $29.50 per ounce, platinum fell over 3% at $972.10, and palladium lost 2.8% to $904.25. “We will find out today whether gold has the stomach to absorb the one-two punch of a strong employment report AND a pause in Chinese buying,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. The Labor Department’s report showed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 272,000 jobs in May, against expectations of an increase of 185,000. The data also drove a rally in the dollar, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Traders lowered their bets to price in 38 basis points (bps) of cuts by end-December, from 48 bps before the NFP data, with the first cut more likely seen coming in November instead of September. The gold market is seeing a bit of liquidation, along with other metals since the data shows the U.S. economy is quite robust and the Fed may delay that first cut, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The jobs report also added to the bearish sentiment seemingly driven by data showing top consumer China held off gold purchases in May after 18 consecutive months of buying. But analysts at TD Securities wrote in a note that while the China news notably hit the yellow metal, “the pause in purchasing could just be a hint of a return to a more price sensitive operation given the run up in prices.””

On the day gold closed down $65.10 at $2305.20, and silver closed down $1.91 at $29.34.

Platinum closed down $40.50 at $967.80 and palladium closed down $14.30 at $909.50.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. Prices are scoring a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Also, a bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at today’s high of $2,406.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $2,308.70. First resistance is seen at $2,350.00 and then at $2,375.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,330.60 and then at $2,308.70. July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices today are scoring a big and bearish “outside day” down. Also, a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above technical resistance at the May high of $32.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below support at $29.00. First resistance is seen at $30.50 and then at $31.00. Next support is the overnight low of $29.835 and then at this week’s low of $29.50.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

Posted on

Gold – Continues to Find Support

Gold – Continues to Find Support

Commentary for Friday, May 31, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $20.00 at $2322.90, and silver closed down $1.09 at $30.30. This was a short week considering the domestic markets were closed for Memorial Day. Gold prices did spike higher on the open but reversed direction and finished the day mildly in the red. Still, insiders are encouraged as inflation and geopolitical worries keep the base support focused. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure Personal Consumption Expenditures came in flat for April suggesting a cooling trend might be in place, but this is still an open question. Rates will likely not be lowered this year if inflation does not weaken. This may cap higher gold prices in the short term. The Fed is now hinting, however, that some easing might be in the cards before year end which supports the current pricing range for gold. Last Friday gold closed at $2335.00 / silver at $30.28 on the week gold was down $12.10 and silver was up $0.02. A lot of chop for such tight spreads.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday May 27th the domestic markets and CNI were closed for Memorial Day.

On Tuesday the price of gold was firmly higher reaching $2365.00 in the early trade before settling somewhat on the day. The price of gold finished solidly in the green after the long Memorial Day weekend. Helping the bulls was a continued weaker dollar which is reflected in the Dollar Index, moving from 105.00 on Friday through 104.25 on Tuesday.

While a short week might suggest subdued action, the metals began with a bang. This coming Friday’s fresh inflation data will have everyone’s attention. And could be the key that opens the lock to even higher prices in the near future. Silver prices were also firmly higher today, up $1.75 this morning so the silver bulls remain optimistic even at these higher numbers.

Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold steadies on lower dollar, focus shifts to US inflation data – “Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, buoyed by a slight pullback in the dollar as investors look forward to U.S. inflation data due later this week for more clarity on interest rate cut timings. Spot gold was flat at $2,349.78 per ounce by 10:16 a.m. ET (1416 GMT), after rising 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures were up 0.7% at $2,350.20. “The dollar index is down and we are seeing the yield curve rates drop a little bit. Gold is coming off a correction and is hovering around resistance levels and now it’s bouncing again,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. “We continue to be fairly optimistic on gold. I still think that ambiguity of Federal Reserve monetary policy may very well keep gold from taking off and moves be very much data dependent going forward.” The dollar slipped 0.1% to a more than one-week low, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Focus this week will be on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. Fed meeting minutes released last week showed that the policy response would involve maintaining the benchmark rate at its current level. Traders are pricing in a 63% chance of a Fed rate cut by November. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. “Gold prices are likely to remain fairly supported by buying-on-dips demand and central bank diversification,” said Amelia Xiao Fu, head of commodity market strategy at Bank of China International.  Demand from global central banks for gold has been elevated for two years as they diversify their foreign currency reserves. Meanwhile, global physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of 11.3 metric tons last week, according to the World Gold Council. Silver eased 0.1% to $31.64 after a 4.4% jump on Monday. Platinum fell 0.8% to $1,045.56. Palladium slipped 1.7% to $972.”

On the day gold closed up $22.70 at $2355.20, and silver closed up $1.64 at $31.97.

On Wednesday the price of gold dipped in the early trade touching $2336.00 as interest rates continue to rise and Wall Street once again worries about this trend. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said Tuesday that US interest rates will remain steady as long as needed, adding that they might be raised if inflation numbers continue to rise.

I think the recent floor for gold above $2300.00 is established in the short term. Higher interest rates, however, will continue to pose a significant obstacle to the bullish scenario. We may now see a reasonable downdraft in prices reacting to these higher interest rates as traders rethink the popular notion that interest rates would be moving lower by the summer months.

There are other issues which support safe haven buying. The war between Israel and Hamas has created a million displaced refugees this past 3 weeks according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). The notion of seized, claimed and rightful ownership of this ground has been a confused and deadly mess since the state of Israel was recognized in 1948. Brokered truce arrangements made by 3rd parties have all been tenuous as peacemakers now wonder if a two-state solution which involves the establishment of an independent State of Palestine alongside that of the State of Israel is even a possibility in what seems like a never ending war which demoralizes the most vulnerable on both sides.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look For Footing – “The gold market fell a bit in the early hours of Wednesday, as the market is currently looking for some kind of floor in this market. You can see that gold fell quite a bit during the early hours on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility in markets around the world. Gold won’t be any different. And at this point, I think we are trying to determine whether or not there is a floor. Underneath, the $2,300 level should continue to be an important level as it not only is a large round psychologically significant figure, but it’s also an area where we’ve seen buyers jump in. We also have the 50 day EMA in that area. So, I think it all comes together for a potential value area. A lot of confusion seems to be raining out there, and I just don’t see how that changes anytime soon. However, when you look at this chart, it’s pretty easy to see that this is in an upward trend, and it would take quite a bit of downward pressure to change that. We did during the previous week, we saw a lot of nasty selling pressure, but still it was from an extraordinarily high level. So, with this, I think you’re waiting to see whether or not we can get some type of bounce from here. And if we do, then you’re a buyer the market should continue to enjoy central bank buying, geopolitical concerns pushing gold higher and of course countries like the United States borrowing money hand over fist should continue to drive the demand for gold higher.”

On the day gold closed down $14.90 at $2340.30, and silver closed up $0.23 at $32.20.

On Thursday the price of gold moved higher as the real estate market weakened and the latest inflation numbers (Consumer Price Index) came in hot (3.6%). There are two ways of looking at this latest data. The first is that because inflation remains problematic the Fed will not be lowering interest rates anytime soon and this will eventually pressure gold lower because of opportunity costs. The second, and likely the stronger of the two possibilities is that gold moved higher in reaction to climbing inflation numbers which will prompt more investor interest. Still, this early rally in gold eventually fizzled as it closed only mildly in the green for the day.

The price of silver moved lower over profit taking as its technical picture weakened over a bearish double top trading pattern. Analysts on the other hand are generally bullish on higher prices for silver over the longer term because of its growing use in environmental projects.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Silver Plunges on Thursday – “The silver market fell rather significantly during the early hours of Thursday, as we have seen a lot of noise overall. The market has been bullish overall, but at the same time, has to acknowledge gravity sooner or later. Silver fell rather significantly during the trading session on Thursday, as it looks like we are going to continue to struggle to stay above the $32 level for a meaningful move. This isn’t to say that we won’t see the market break out above the $32.50 level and continue going higher. It just shows that we are going to have to build up enough momentum to finally take off to the upside. Underneath we have the $30 level that could offer quite a bit of support and I do think that is important to pay attention to as it is not only an area that had been held previously, it’s also a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. The 50 day EMA currently sits at the $28.50 level and is rising. So with that being the case, I think you have to assume that buyers would be more willing than not to come in there as well. Keep in mind that silver is an industrial metal, so it’s not just gold and it doesn’t just follow gold. It has its own scenario that it has to pay attention to. In general, this is a market that I think will continue to attract a lot of buyers on dips as the uptrend should continue to go higher, but we may have some work to do before we can make the next move. Once we do, I would expect to see a lot of momentum back into the market again.”

On the day gold closed up $2.60 at $2342.90, and silver closed down $0.81 at $31.39.

On Friday the price of gold surged higher in the early trade in what some are calling a “relief rally” but soon reversed direction, finishing mildly in the red on the close. This may suggest that bullish sentiment is cooling to some degree, but physical bulls believe that the inflation genie is already out of the bottle and continue to buy weakness. Our volume numbers are solid and new accounts are growing, which is a good sign, suggesting continued safe haven demand.

The bulls still buy low premium silver bullion with both hands. My feeling is that their patience in this confused, inflationary world of fiat currencies will eventually prove rewarding. It is an additional plus that silver’s bullish technical picture while volatile remains strong.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Find Support – “The gold market continues to find support underneath, as the market is well supported. This is a market that will continue to have a lot of different reasons to continue higher over the longer term. The gold market has gone back and forth during the early hours on Friday, as it looks like we are going to continue to see plenty of support underneath the 50 day EMA, since it is just above the 2300 level, an area that recently had been a swing low. Ultimately, this is a market that I think given enough time will find buyers, but I think you also have to keep in mind that it’s likely that the 2400 level above is a massive ceiling. All things being equal, I think we are still in the midst of trying to work off a lot of the froth that we have seen over the last couple of months. And I do think at this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see more choppiness than anything else. But I do believe in the upward trajectory. Therefore, I don’t have any interest in shorting gold. If we break down below the $2,300 level, then we could drop as far as $2,150 and still be in an uptrend and just then start to test the 200-day EMA. If we break above the $2,400 level, then $2,450 would be targeted, followed by $2,500, after that, market participants will continue to look at each dip as a potential opportunity to pick up cheap gold, at least as far as I can tell and as far as history shows on the chart. And until something massively changes, geopolitics, profligate spending, profligate borrowing, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where gold doesn’t continue to at least have a certain amount of appeal.”

On the day gold closed down $20.00 at $2322.90, and silver closed down $1.09 at $30.30.

Platinum closed up $4.80 at $1037.70 and palladium closed down $45.10 at $899.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,477.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $2,308.70. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,388.00 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at $2,350.00 and then at this week’s low of $2,343.30. July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $32.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $29.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at $32.28. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $30.94 and then at $30.50.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

 

Posted on

Gold – The Big Pushback

Gold – The Big Pushback

Commentary for Thursday, May 23, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $54.20 at $2335.00, and silver closed down $1.02 at $30.28. This was not an optimistic week for the bulls, as overhead resistance proved stronger than most believed, and the technical outlook moved from promising to ominously bearish. This quick turn of events again proved that the Fed interest rate hammer is as powerful as ever, lest we all get too carried away with record prices. Trading reaction to the latest Fed minutes was extreme and perhaps even overdone. But one thing is sure, a hundred dollar drop in the price of gold in a few days presents an out of the blue whiplash trade no one appreciates and suggests further downside may still in the cards. Last Friday gold closed at $2412.20 / silver at $31.05 on the week gold was down $77.20 and silver was down $0.77.

Our newsletter was published on Thursday because I will not be available Friday. Please note that our phones are regular hours Friday, but our parking lot will be closed. We will be back to normal business next week. Have a blessed day and thanks for your patience. Richard

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold and silver benefited from Friday’s recent highs with follow through buying. Both metals finished the day firmly in the green. Gold and silver made new highs in the overnight trade as problems in the Middle East and generally rising geopolitical tensions continue to prompt safe haven buying.

While both silver and gold continue to create a technically solid pricing picture, I would feel better about these higher levels if this market cooled off a bit before attempting the climb to $2500.00, which I see as very challenging indeed. Gold’s 30 day pricing change is only about $13.00 suggesting a slowing trend is already in place.

But year-over-year gold is higher by $430.00 which might suggest that if the Fed does not move interest rates lower prices are subject to longer term profit taking. Still, world politics is a mess and this alone will cushion the possible dramatic swings in the price of gold.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – US rate cut optimism steers gold to another record high – “Gold prices touched a record high on Monday as recent economic data boosted bets for interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while silver followed suit and surged to a more than 11-year high. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,427.21 per ounce as of 1204 GMT after hitting a record high of $2,449.89 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.6% to $2,431.10. “Gold’s ascent to fresh all-time peaks was likely fueled by restored bets for Fed rate cuts, following last week’s cooling U.S. inflation data. It may also be benefiting from the spillover of the surge in the broader metals complex,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. Data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend, boosting expectations for a September interest rate cut. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, which also benefits from uncertainty in the market. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash. “Geographic tension environments are getting complicated,” said Dick Poon, general manager at Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd. Meanwhile, a key consumer of gold and other industrial metals, China, announced on Friday “historic” steps to stabilize its crisis-hit property sector. Spot silver eased 0.7% to $31.27 after hitting an over 11-year high. “On silver, its dual characteristics as industrial and precious is finally getting more attention. Transition to clean energy should continue to see a greater role in the use of silver,” analysts at OCBC wrote in a note. Platinum dipped 1.3% to $1,066.53 after hitting its highest since May 2023. Palladium slipped 0.7% to $1,001.93.”

On the day gold closed up $21.70 at $2433.90, and silver closed up $1.16 at $32.21.

On Tuesday the price of gold saw profit taking and finished mildly in the red for the day. Still, as I mentioned yesterday, a settling trend in the price of gold would definitely create more faith in these higher numbers. At the present time the Fed still seems reluctant to lower interest rates. Fed Governor Waller recently said the economy is slowing down but he would like to see better inflation numbers before easing monetary policy. Most traders believe that higher interest rates will remain in place at least in the near term. So, the fact that gold still seems to be holding up around $2400.00 is a plus for the bullish scenario. Many believe this strength will eventually set the stage for higher prices as the Fed begins to lower interest rates before the end of the year.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold eases from record highs as profit taking kicks in – “Gold prices slipped on Tuesday as U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers stuck to a cautious tone on monetary policy and investors locked in profits after bullion hit an all-time high in the previous session. Spot gold fell 0.3% at $2,417.95 per ounce, as of 0900 GMT, after scaling a record high of $2,449.89 on Monday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% at $2,421.70. “The loss of momentum is inevitable at some point as new participants are already in but there is a chance of more investors arriving. Most people are in for the long haul and likely to stay there in view of geopolitical tensions, banking issues and so many elections around the world this year,” StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said. “Gold’s key role is to offset risk, whether financial, geopolitical or volatility. That is not new, but sentiment has now realized.” Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash on Sunday. Geopolitical events and lower rates make non-yielding gold an appealing investment. Recent data suggested that U.S. inflation resumed its downward trend, but several Fed policymakers remained cautious on Monday and want to make sure pricing pressures are fully back on track to the 2% target rate before starting to cut rates. Investors will keep a tab on minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting due on Wednesday. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $31.64 after hitting an over 11-year high in the last session. “Silver is the beta for gold. Investors are attracted to silver because fundamentals are very strong coupled with growing industrial demand and it’s a cheaper alternative to gold,” said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. Platinum lost 1.4% to $1,032.30 and palladium dropped 0.5% to $1,021.77.”

On the day gold closed down $12.20 at $2421.70, and silver closed down $0.34 at $31.87.

On Wednesday the price of gold dipped considerably on the open as gold broke through the $2400.00 support reaching $2375.00 before traders bought the dip. This would suggest follow through profit taking from yesterday and the growing reality that the Fed will not turn dovish before inflation numbers turn significantly lower. Keep in mind however that trading weakness these past few days may not be a trend. It does resonate with those who believe gold was overbought. And those who think a healthy correction will be good for the longer term market.

Breaking down at $2400.00 is not a good sign, but it does reinforce the conviction that the Fed’s interest rate policy is the elephant in the living room. Safe haven demand will come and go but interest rates will likely be the determining factor relative to the price of gold into next year.

It may be too soon to assume that gold will continue lower because the Fed will remain hawkish, but that feeling is definitely growing. There is talk that a test of $2300.00 would be good for this market but in the meantime, traders are in a kind of “half time” mode trying to piece together the next Fed move relative to interest rates. One thing is sure, the trading mood is turning pessimistic and those bulls who claim that $5000 gold is right around the corner may want to reconsider.

On the day gold closed down $32.50 at $2389.20, and silver closed down $0.57 at $31.30.

On Thursday it might be an understatement to say that the bears have taken over and the bulls are now hiding under the bed. This latest down draft in gold prices began suddenly on Tuesday, continued through Wednesday and increased in intensity on Thursday. The reasoning is simple enough, the latest Fed minutes suggest that the FOMC will remain hawkish on its interest rate policy. And perhaps even raise rates if inflation continues higher. Whether this turnaround is another buying opportunity remains to be seen, but the price drop was quick, large, and scary.

Reuters (Polina Devitt) – Gold falls to one-week low on hawkish Fed minutes – “Gold prices declined to a one-week low on Thursday, extending their fall for a third consecutive session on profit-taking after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest meeting indicated that interest rates would stay higher for longer. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,356.29 per ounce as of 1355 GMT, after hitting its lowest since May 14 at $2,351 earlier in the session. The non-yielding bullion hit a record high of $2,449.89 on Monday and is up 14% so far this year. The market has also been concerned that high gold prices could affect purchases by central banks, which were active buyers in 2022-2023, as well as demand from Chinese investors. “We expect them to continue with strong purchases on any price dips, and we don’t expect the downside to gold prices to be pronounced,” said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree. Gold could see the next level of support at $2,300, and signals that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates would be the next major catalyst for its price gain, he added. Meanwhile, imports to India, the world’s second-biggest gold consumer, could fall by nearly a fifth in 2024 as high prices spur consumers to exchange old jewelry for new items, according to an industry body. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $30.57. The recent rally in gold and copper prices drove it to $32.5, an 11-year high, earlier this week. Platinum was down 0.2% at $1,033.44. The metal is up 11% so far this month after a wave of forecasts of the second year of structural market deficit. Providing further support, platinum’s technical chart formed a golden cross – a bullish pattern – in late April when its short-term moving average pierced through a long-term moving average, Shah said. Palladium lost 1.7% to $982.38 under pressure from future market share growth of electric vehicles and despite structural supply deficit.”

On the day gold closed $54.20 at $2335.00, and silver closed down $1.02 at $30.28.

Platinum closed down $18.40 at $1025.70 and palladium closed down $29.60 at $973.30.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,454.20. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,385.70 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,341.20 and then at $2,325.00. July silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $32.75. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $29.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $31.185 and then at $31.50. Next support at today’s low of $30.36 and then at $30.00.

On Friday – Our newsletter was published on Thursday because I will not be available on Friday. Please note that phones are regular hours on Friday, but our parking lot will be closed. We will be back to normal business next week. Thanks for your patience. Richard

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

 

Posted on

Gold – Above $2400.00!

Gold – Above $2400.00!

Commentary for Friday, May 17, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $32.20 at $2412.20, and silver closed up $1.38 at $31.05. Another solid week for gold and silver as each metal moved to recent highs with conviction this morning. Gold challenged $2415.00 and silver broke through $30.00 overhead resistance with a few traders believing this is only the first inning. Still, caution is good stewardship. I don’t believe professionals can read these short term tea leaves well because updrafts are problematical over interest rate confusion. What the Fed may do between the summer months and the end of the year will be determined by how the US economy settles. Stock market euphoria has already factored in lower interest rates, which might also be the case with the metals. This is also a good time to dismiss the notion of a hyperbolic increase in the price of both gold and silver. Exaggerated stories reinvent themselves as record highs are approached, or the hyperbole becomes excessive. It is also a good time to fasten your seat belts and expect further price turbulence. Last Friday gold closed at $2367.39 / silver at $28.28 on the week gold was higher by $44.81 and silver was higher by $2.77.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold dipped considerably on the open which is a bullish disappointment considering the big move higher last Friday. But so goes the trading reality in this supercharged market as continued higher interest rates point to more profit taking. Let’s just call today’s trade a cautionary pullback which could have further implications if fresh bargain hunting does not overrule this red flag. Today’s dip, under the circumstances, is large enough to get everyone’s attention, but not so great as to reverse solid bullish sentiment. The fact that gold is higher by $350.00 this past year supports this statement. Expect the Fed to turn dovish sooner than later in this high stakes poker game just to make sure the economy does not go off the rails. If the Fed remains overly hawkish $2300.00 could give way, but higher interest rates create the possibility of recession. I believe however that it is a mistake to overly concentrate on Fed thinking. There are other factors which may soon favor fresh safe haven demand and higher gold prices.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Pulls Back a Bit of Support – “The gold market has shown itself to be a little bit negative during the early hours on Monday, but it looks to me like it is going to continue to see plenty of support underneath, and therefore I think it’s probably more likely than not a buy on the dip opportunity. With this being the case, I think we’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this as an opportunity to get long occasionally on these dips. I don’t see why you would try to short this market, but there is always somebody out there willing to do it, I suppose. The $2,300 level is more likely than not going to be your floor, and therefore, that’s what I would really like to play off of assuming we even get that far. And it doesn’t look like we are. So short term dips that show signs of life are more likely than not going to end up being a buying opportunity for those trying to get long of gold. And let’s face it, there are plenty of reasons to think that gold should continue to go higher. The $2350 level looks to be an area of interest, but the $2450 level above, I think, is your gateway to much higher pricing. There are geopolitical concerns, interest rate concerns, central banks around the world getting ready to cut again, central banks around the world buying gold, and a multitude of plenty of other reasons why we continue to look at this through the prism of a bullish market.”

On the day gold closed down $31.20 at $2336.10, and silver closed down $0.06 at $28.22.

On Tuesday the price of gold was up nicely after yesterday’s dip in prices. This could be the result of changing and conflicting factors. The latest inflation numbers seem to suggest the Fed will remain hawkish – a negative for the gold scenario. Still, some insiders believe that the Fed could begin easing interest rates by September. Today’s higher numbers might as easily be the result of traders buying yesterday’s dip which would encourage the feeling that gold has room to move higher before the year end. Today’s pop to the upside might also suggest fresh safe haven demand as aggression continues in the Middle East. Traders expect this ebb and flow in the price gold, given these typical cross currents. But the longer gold remains above $2300.00 the stronger the bullish scenario becomes when viewed from the longer term perspective.

Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold inches up as traders eye key US inflation report – “Gold prices firmed on Tuesday as investors awaited the crucial inflation report this week, which can significantly influence the outlook on U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,345.39 2 per ounce by 1209 GMT, after dropping 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,351.20. “Gold’s relatively flat performance today shows that markets remain on tenterhooks and aren’t willing to take an outsized view of how the incoming U.S. data will pan out,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group. Investors are now looking forward to the U.S. consumer price index report due on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations that respondents project inflation a year from now at 3.3% from March’s 3%, while inflation three years from now is seen moderating to an expected 2.8% rise from the prior month’s 2.9%. Traders expect the U.S. central bank to start easing its cycle in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. “Signs of easing price pressures may further bolster hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2024, which could give gold fresh impetus to return closer to its record high,” Tan added. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $28.39 per ounce and palladium gained 1.1% to $1,007.35. Platinum was up 0.9% at $969.25, after hitting a near one-year peak of $1,016.40 on Monday.”We expect platinum to outperform on rising auto catalyst demand, greater potential for investment inflow and capex tightening in the South Africa PGM mining industry which could disproportionately impact platinum supply,” Deutsche Bank said in a note.”

On the day gold closed up $17.30 at $2353.40, and silver closed up $0.27 at $28.49.

On Wednesday the price of gold moved higher as April’s Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% as opposed to the consensus of 0.4%. This may not seem like much but anything which suggests inflation is moving lower is used to sell the idea that the Fed will soon turn dovish and thus bolster the bullish gold scenario. And it’s hard to make a reasonable case that gold is stuck after today’s dramatic “pop” to the upside which must be a surprise even to dedicated followers of the yellow metal. You can make a case that traders fear the current high interest rates which have acted as kind of “governor” on the daily pricing equation. But what do you now do with the notion that gold has broken through overhead resistance and is again challenging $2400.00?

Of course, today’s big surprise was the combination of a significant drop in the dollar and the growing belief that the Fed will soon be forced to turn dovish. And the frosting on this gold cake is a solid technical picture. While well regarded analysts were waiting for something tangible from the Fed regarding interest rates, speculators, investors, and central banks beat everyone to the punch and today decided to jump into these bullish waters. The technical sharpies now claim that the next upside price objective for gold is $2450.00. Another record high.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Pressures – “Gold initially surged a bit during the early hours on Wednesday, but it looks as if we are running into a little bit of noise near the $2,370 level. This is an area that was difficult previously, so it’s not a huge surprise to see momentum give it up a little bit here. That being said, I think any short-term pullback is more likely than not going to be thought of as a buying opportunity. And you can even make a little bit of an argument for a bullish flag being formed at the current trading block. The market certainly sees a lot of support underneath, regardless, with the 2300 level being a major support level and the 50-day EMA racing toward it being a potential backup to that support level. This isn’t even to say that we will fall that far, just that we could, and it really wouldn’t change much. If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then the next major support level is down at the $2,200 level. I think it’s more likely than not that we break out to the upside before it is all said and done, and if and when we do, we could very well go looking to the $2,500 level. The massive move higher as of late has slowed down, but that makes sense. We are just simply consolidating gains. Inflation, of course, will be front and center, but keep in mind, regardless, there’s a lot of geopolitical concern out there. And of course, central banks around the world have been buying gold, so that adds upward pressure as well.”

On the day gold closed up $35.30 at $2388.70, and silver closed up $1.02 at $29.51.

On Thursday gold gave up some of yesterday’s strong move to the upside but still managed to finish the day only slightly in the red. Today’s market settled a bit as jobless claims fell, and the Dollar Index recovered. It is good, in the long run, for this market to calm down at these elevated. Keeping in mind that gold still presents an upward bias and bullish sentiment is strong. The possibility of lower interest rates underpins recent gains and lays the foundation of eventual new highs perhaps this year. Across our trading desk speculative money is apparent this week and large sellers have disappeared. This optimism could reverse itself if interest rates do not move lower, but most are betting on higher prices for both gold and silver before year end.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold near one-month high on improved Fed rate cut bets – “Gold prices hovered near a one-month high on Thursday as signs of inflation stabilizing in the U.S. increased the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as early as September. Spot gold was little changed at $2,384.07 per ounce as of 1155 GMT, after hitting its highest since April 19 earlier in the session. Bullion rose over 1% on Wednesday. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures slipped 0.3% to $2,388.70. “The combination of stabilizing inflation and softness in other economic data such as retail sales is really a good cocktail for gold and silver,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat last month, while cooling consumer prices and last week’s lackluster labor market data came as good news to Fed policymakers waiting to see renewed progress on inflation before reducing rates.  Lower interest rates boost non-yielding bullion’s appeal. “Gold has been through a period of consolidation, but that consolidation has been very shallow compared to the big rally back in March and April…so it does indicate that there’s still underlying strength in the market,” Hansen said. The dollar index hovered near a more than one-month low, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were at its lowest since April 5. Meanwhile, spot silver fell 0.3% to $29.61 per ounce, having hit its highest since February 2021 earlier in the session. “Strong fundamentals amid rising gold prices are likely to spur investor interest in silver,” analysts at ANZ wrote in a note, adding that they expect the metal to trade above $31 by the end of 2024. Palladium lost 0.3% to $1,007.10, while platinum rose 0.2% to $1,066.30 after hitting a one-year high earlier in the session.”

On the day gold closed down $8.70 at $2380.00, and silver closed up $0.16 at $29.67.

On Friday the price of gold surprised everyone by surging to $2415.00. It was not that this happy event was not anticipated. It was by some technical experts, but I think few believed we would see such strong action this week. Which brings me to an interesting story. I smiled when an old customer walked in and asked for me. We have been doing business with this gentleman for a long, long time and he always knows what he wants to do in advance. But today his first words were: “Oy vey” (A popular Yiddish expression suggesting exasperation). What’s the matter was my response? I’m so confused – should I be buying or selling? I hope this educational story will prove helpful to the reader for at least the rest of this year.

James Stanley (Forex.com / Kitco) – $2,500 gold is in play this week – “Gold prices have broken out of a near-term bearish technical pattern and the yellow metal is poised once again to surpass its all-time highs, according to James Stanley, Senior Strategist at Forex.com. “Gold prices broke out of a falling wedge pattern in a very big way last week,” Stanley wrote. “Coming into April Gold prices were flying higher, eventually pushing weekly RSI into deeply overbought territory.” He said that when gold prices failed to hold above the $2,400 per ounce level, it triggered a strong pullback that drove gold down $100 in relatively short order. “But, just like Gold bulls failed to gain acceptance above the $2400 level, Gold bears struggled to gain acceptance below $2300,” Stanley said. “There was a single daily close below that price but in the days after, buyers returned to hold support above the level while also building in a backdrop of higher-lows.” Stanley said this price action is what created the falling wedge pattern on the daily chart “as sellers were showing more aggression at highs or near resistance but suddenly showed passiveness near lows or at support.” Turning to the price action seen this week, Stanley noted another technical pattern that he gleaned from the pullback: “a Fibonacci retracement that has continued to show inflections.” “Taking the April high down to the May low produces a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2372.68,” he said. “That’s what helped to hold the highs on Friday before a pullback appeared.” Stanley said the pullback ran all the way down to the 38.2% retracement level. “That plots at $2336.31, and that price helped to hold the lows on Monday and into Tuesday, at which point bulls came back,” he said. “That then led to a run and a pause at the 61.8% level, followed by extension up to the 76.4% retracement at $2395.18, and that’s so far held the highs for this week.” He added that the pullback from this level “has so far held support on a re-test of support at prior resistance, at the same 61.8% retracement of 2372.68.” Moving forward, Stanley said “the big question is whether bulls have the drive to push a weekly close above the $2400 level,” something that XAU/USD has yet to achieve. “The two instances that we did have of price testing over that level were met with fast pullbacks, with the second test also showing a lower-high,” he noted. “This provides some context should continuation show, and gold bulls holding the bid above the big figure would illustrate a strong response to the pullback that started a month ago.” Above the 2400 level, Stanley pointed out the prior inflection points at the $2,417 and the $2,431 levels, after which there would be no prior barrier standing in the way of gold’s march to $2,500 per ounce. “Given that price would be at fresh all-time highs beyond 2431, a degree of projection would be required to set shorter-term resistance levels,” he said. “[T]his could put focus on spots such as 2450 or 2475 before a test of 2500 could come into the picture.” After forming a triple top pattern just below the $2,400 level shortly after 9 pm EDT Wednesday evening, gold prices have trended lower on Thursday. Spot gold last traded at $2,376.42, down 0.41% on the session at the time of writing.”

On the day gold closed up $32.20 at $2412.20, and silver closed up $1.38 at $31.05.  

Platinum closed up $19.20 at $1084.60 and palladium closed up $12.40 at $1009.90.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,448.80. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,402.70 and then at $2,415.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,377.80 and then at Wednesday’s low of $2,357.10. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained good power this week. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $30.19. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $28.00. First resistance is seen at $30.19 and then at $30.50. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $29.555 and then at $29.00.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

 

 

Posted on

Gold – Gaining Momentum

Gold – Gaining Momentum

Commentary for Friday, May 10, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $35.20 at $2367.39, and silver closed up $0.15 at $28.28. As they say, you can’t argue with success, and today’s “break” to the upside in gold reinforces its technical picture and the notion that the Fed is moving away from its 2% inflation target embracing dovish monetary policies. I would not however bet the ranch here on the short term for two reasons. First, this bullish story has come in and out of favor over the past few years. And second, this decoupling process will take time to work out the obvious problem of a still hawkish FOMC stance relative to inflation. And while gold and silver bullion still have a few obstacles in their way the bearish clouds are clearing up nicely for the longer term. Last Friday gold closed at $2299.00 / silver at $26.45 on the week gold was higher by $68.39 and silver was higher by $1.83.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold again opened the week in a choppy fashion, moving between $2312.00 and $2330.00 with an upward bias, managing to finish the day nicely in the green. There is fresh talk that is helping gold by suggesting that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier than expected based on the weakening jobs report. And the World Gold Council claiming strong central bank buying – 16 tons of gold in March also helps the bullish scenario. There seems to be some confusion over Hamas and the ceasefire from Egypt and Qatar as far as Israel is concerned so look for continued safe haven demand.

Keep in mind that gold’s fading technical picture is creating mild bearish crosswinds. Still, the fact that the price of gold seems to be happy above $2300.00 is a plus for bulls.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Strength – “The gold market continues to see a lot of pressure to the upside, as the gold markets are being used to protect wealth against devaluation, and of course geopolitical issues around the world. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Monday, dipping below the 2,300 level, only to turn around and show signs of life. The market right now is looking at $2,320 as a little bit of a barrier, but I think given enough time, we probably go higher. You will of course have to pay close attention to interest rates in the United States due to the fact that the Federal Reserve is still very much in the picture. And of course, people are worried about inflation, but at the same time that can actually help gold. You also have to keep in mind the geopolitical issues around the world, which can help gold. And quite frankly, just looking at the momentum on the chart helps gold. So, all things being equal, I think we are still very much in an uptrend when it comes to the gold market and therefore it’s a one-way trade you don’t want to be short of the gold market. Above we have the $2360 level and it’s a short-term barrier, but if we can break that, then I think we go looking to the $2400 level rather quickly, while underneath we have the 2280 dollars level offering significant support. The 50-day EMA sits just below there as well and that of course comes into the picture for support and therefore I think it remains buy on the dip from a technical analysis standpoint as well. Quite frankly, fiat currencies around the world are being eviscerated as we just spend, spend, spend and that includes the US dollar. Yes, the US dollar is stronger than other currencies but that’s just in relation to other currencies. So, with that being said, the market looks like one you are still looking to buy.”

On the day gold closed up $22.60 at $2321.60, and silver closed up $0.92 at $27.37.

On Tuesday the price of gold traded lower closing mildly in the red. This is a small disappointment for the bulls in that gold failed to capitalize on yesterday’s nice finish in the green. The Dollar Index lost more than a point these past 5 trading days but has settled around 105 helping tap down bullish sentiment. The point being that gold is once again subject to positive and negative crosswinds creating mild up and down cycles in trading. This is not news, but it suggests that prices are settling which is good for the metals in the longer run.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Price Adjustment Amid Strengthening Dollar – Gold is edging lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, creating a less favorable environment for gold investors using other currencies. This movement came ahead of further remarks expected from Federal Reserve officials, which traders are closely monitoring to gauge future monetary policy directions. Impact of the Dollar and Treasury Yields – The U.S. dollar index, which compares the dollar to six major currencies, rose slightly by 0.1% to 105.23. This increase is part of a broader pattern where the dollar has gained nearly 4% this year, despite a recent dip of almost 1% following the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes. Concurrently, U.S. Treasury yields saw a decrease, with the 10-year Treasury dropping 3 basis points to 4.459%. This suggests a cautious investor sentiment towards the evolving economic environment and monetary policy. Federal Reserve’s Stance and Market Reactions – Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, emphasize a wait-and-see approach regarding interest rate cuts, advocating patience until more definitive signs of inflation easing appear. This stance was reinforced by weaker economic indicators, such as the April jobs report which showed an unexpected rise in unemployment from 3.8% to 3.9%, prompting speculation about the timing and extent of future rate cuts. Investor Outlook and Gold’s Position – Despite the current consolidation in the gold market, underlying factors such as geopolitical tensions and potential banking stresses continue to provide support. The precious metal hit a record high of $2,431.29 on April 12, bolstered by strong buying from central banks and increased demand from Chinese retail investors. This suggests that while short-term profit-taking may dampen price spikes, long-term drivers remain bullish for gold. Short-Term Forecast – Looking ahead, the market’s attention will remain fixed on upcoming comments from Fed officials, including Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed. Investors are adjusting their expectations, with current Fed funds futures indicating a 67% likelihood of rate cuts starting in September. Considering these elements, the outlook for gold remains cautiously bullish as it continues to serve as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and currency fluctuations. Technical Analysis – XAU/USD is edging lower on Tuesday, but the market remains at the upper end of a short-term consolidation zone, suggesting a developing upside bias. The intermediate and long-term trends remain well intact with the former providing strong support at $2245.99. The short-term trend is down. A trade through $2352.64 will change the short-term trend to up, while a trade through $2277.34, reaffirms the downtrend.

On the day gold closed down $6.40 at $2315.20, and silver closed down $0.07 at $27.30.

On Wednesday the price of gold moved between $2304.00 and $2316.00 continuing gold’s steady trade and finishing the day almost unchanged. Most analysts see this consolidation as constructive in the longer term. Across our trading desk through mid-week the public does not seem worried about buying gold and silver bullion at the higher end of their current trading ranges. In fact, selling has pretty much dried up suggesting the average buyer has turned patient. Although traders are looking for gold and silver to test support, most professionals see this test as healthy and expect higher prices by year end. Still, fresh news from the US Bureau of Labor like next Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index will be watched carefully and could create waves.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Market Update – “Gold prices are mixed on Wednesday in a thinly traded session as the interaction of rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar outweighed the benefits from safe-haven demands. This shift occurs against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical tensions and the evolving economic conditions influenced by Federal Reserve policies. Treasury Yields and Federal Reserve Signals – The Treasury yields observed a modest increase, with the 10-year Treasury note rising more than 1 basis point to 4.479% and the 2-year Treasury also up by over 1 basis point to 4.839%. This uptick reflects investor reactions to the recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, which provide insights into the potential direction of interest rates. Notably, Federal Reserve officials have indicated a cautious approach to rate cuts, awaiting more definitive signs of inflation aligning closer to the 2% target. Statements from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin suggest a steady rate policy until clearer disinflation trends emerge. Dollar Strength and Impact on Gold – The US dollar maintained strength, dampening the appeal of gold for holders of other currencies. This situation is critical as gold’s pricing in dollar terms affects international demand. Additionally, higher interest rates pose an increased opportunity cost for holding non-yielding bullion, further challenging gold’s position. Geopolitical Concerns and Safe-Haven Demand – Despite the pressures from monetary policies and yield changes, gold continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven asset. Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly concerning the Middle East and Ukraine, have sustained a degree of support for gold prices. The potential escalation involving NATO and Russia introduces additional uncertainty, reinforcing gold’s appeal during times of geopolitical strife. Short-Term Forecast – Considering the current economic indicators and geopolitical context, the outlook for gold remains mixed. While the safe-haven demand provides some support, the strengthening dollar and potential for steady or higher US interest rates may limit upward movements. Traders currently see a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut by September, but this could shift rapidly with new economic data or geopolitical developments. As such, investors should prepare for possible volatility in gold markets, with a cautious eye on further economic indicators and central bank cues. The near-term forecast appears bearish, given the prevailing economic conditions and market sentiment. Technical Analysis – “The current daily chart pattern suggests trader indecision and impending volatility. The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is $2336.41. Its counterpart for a short-term meltdown is $2277.345. Traders are just waiting for a catalyst before they make their move. The nearest major support is the up trending 50-day moving average at $2251.70.”

On the day gold closed down $1.60 at $2313.60, and silver closed up $0.06 at $27.36.

On Thursday the price of gold moved higher, testing $2335.00, which is a bit surprising since it has been trending downward since Monday. But traders bought weakness suggesting underlying strength in this transition period as US weekly jobless claims jump to six month highs and the Dollar Index lost half a point in the early trade. On the short term I believe higher prices for gold will be capped to some degree because interest rates may remain high. In the longer term there is plenty of room for higher prices and wider investor interest in gold and silver bullion.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczk) – Gold Continues to Look Bullish – “The gold market has shown itself to be somewhat noisy during the Thursday session, but we have seen a little bit of a boost higher as the jobs report in the United States came out a little worse than anticipated. That being said, this is a market bullish anyways due to the fact that we have been in such a huge uptrend. All things being equal, this is a market that I look at through the prism of buying the dip. The market is more likely than not going to continue to see upward momentum and eventually a move to the recent highs at $2,400. Whether or not we can break above there remains to be seen, but it would not surprise me at all due to the fact that there are a whole plethora of reasons why we could go higher. The first thing of course, would be that central banks are more likely than not to cut interest rates going forward. But we also have geopolitical concerns that continue to have people jumping into this market. The $2,300 level continues to be an area that people pay close attention to as it previously had been supported. The 50-day EMA is reaching the $2,300 level. And given enough time, I think that also comes into the picture to attract a certain amount of buying. You could make a little bit of an argument for a bullish flag, although it’s not the most textbook example one, but regardless, we are in an uptrend, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon. Silver Price Forecast – Silver Continues to See Buyers – “The silver market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday, as the weekly Unemployment Claims number in the United States came out hotter than anticipated, suggesting that perhaps the employment situation in America is starting to deteriorate. Technical Analysis – “Silver rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday to break above the $27.50 level. At this point, it looks like the market is going to try to get to the $28.50 level, but I would prefer to buy a dip if I get the opportunity. I don’t necessarily want to chase silver because silver is notoriously volatile and quite frankly, dangerous most of the time. Short-term pullbacks will certainly attract a lot of attention and inflows with the $27 level underneath offering support, followed by the $26 level, where the 50-day EMA sits just above. Whether or not we can break out to the upside remains to be seen, but really at this point in time, all I can tell you is that historically speaking, the area between $28.50 and $30 is typically very difficult to get beyond. In general, this is a market that I think will have the occasional pullback that you can buy into based on value and selling based on the idea that we get a little too far to the upside. With this, I think we’re a little too far to the upside to try to find value. I anticipate that we will probably go sideways between $26 and $28.50 for the foreseeable future due to the fact that there are geopolitical concerns out there that could continue to push silver higher. That being said, keep in mind that this is a market that can punish you if you are wrong, so you don’t necessarily want to jump in with a huge position, keeping silver is a very small part of your overall portfolio.”

On the day gold closed up $18.50 at $2332.10, and silver closed up $0.77 at $2813.

On Friday the surge in the price of gold was not unexpected, just looking for a trigger. The idea that the US will cut rates is an old and reliable bullish scenario. But the “when and how” is still very uncertain. If our economy is slowing down investors can look forward to higher prices in gold as the Fed gets more serious about cutting interest rates.

But you might find that all things considered we are not slowing down, which gives the Fed more hawkish options. The fact that the price of gold is above $2300.00 is a big plus for the bulls so enjoy this ride. Smart money will keep their options open. If you look at the bigger picture nothing much has changed. Russian military aggression, inflation, mounting government debt and a troubled world all portend higher prices for both gold and silver bullion.

The movement to monetize gold and silver bullion is gaining strength nationwide, and there are already some states which have eliminated capital gains on these unique assets!       

Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold at more than two-week high on US rate-cut bets – “Gold prices strengthened on Friday and were on track for their best week since early April, as weak U.S. employment figures fueled bets of interest rates cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Spot gold gained 1.1% to $2,372.46 per ounce by 1203 GMT, hitting its highest in more than two weeks. Prices have risen over 3% so far in the week. U.S. gold futures jumped 1.7% to $2,379.30. On the gold market, “focus is likely to be on the development of consumer prices in the U.S. after progress in the fight against inflation has been considered insufficient in recent months and interest rate hopes have been scaled back,” Commerzbank said in a note. Gold extended gains after jumping 1% on Thursday in response to data showing the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week. Investors are now looking forward to the U.S. producer price index and consumer price index data due next week for fresh clues on the Fed’s rate trajectory. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, opens new tab, traders are pricing in about a 68% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. However, there is “considerable” uncertainty about where U.S. inflation will head in the coming months, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Thursday. Meanwhile, Palestinian residents reported about Israeli forces bombarding the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip on Thursday, while an Israeli official confirmed the end of indirect negotiations with Hamas. “The next target for the gold can be seen in the region of $2,380,” De Casa said. Spot silver rose 0.8% to $28.56, platinum firmed 1.7% to $990.73 and palladium added 1.9% to $985.81. All three metals were up for the week.

On the day gold closed up $35.20 at $2367.30, and silver closed up $0.15 at $28.28.  

Platinum closed up $16.40 at $1001.10 and palladium closed up $10.40 at $980.80.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and prices have just seen a bullish upside “breakout” from the recent trading range. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $2,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,385.30 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at $2,365.00 and then at today’s low of $2,352.00. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have gained good power this week. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $27.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $29.00 and then at $29.37. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $28.47 and then at $28.00.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.