Gold Firm into the Weekend
Commentary for Friday, Feb 15, 2019 – Gold closed up $8.30 at $1318.10. We closed at $1307.00 this past Monday so on the week gold moved up by $11.10 – nothing to write home about but still impressively holding above $1300.00 in choppy trading. Gold yawned over the President’s declaring an emergency this morning and the dollar surged reaching 97.4 on the index before falling to virtually unchanged around 97.00.
Crude oil since October has moved from $75.00 through $42.00 but has stabilized since early December and is now trading solidly above $50.00 which should support gold prices for now. The DOW seems happy with the latest lovefest between Trump and China so I’m not optimistic about safe haven demand for gold from Wall Street.
Still the interest in gold bullion remains consistent – not hot but interesting. Prices have been encouraging since December pushing from $1240.00 through $1320.00 but since late January have been flat. Today’s close ($1318.10) is a bit surprising and the aftermarket was up another $4.00 so this looks like an attempt to break higher.
But still no cigar – that might come next week with a close above $1320.00. Firmer pricing however does add a plus to the technical picture.
It’s plain that a break to the upside above $1350.00 would reinvigorate this market but it is also clear that recent price gains continue to encourage the rank and file core of bullion owners.
Whether you are bullish or bearish I don’t think there is much downside here especially with a dovish FOMC. Obviously a break below $1300.00 would take all the air out of the balloon but really this market could break either way, but not dramatically.
There are signs that the American public is beginning to take another look at gold and silver bullion and there are some in the trade that believe this market is just resting – looking for another up leg in a generally bullish trend which began in December of last year.
And I think its wishful thinking that our now $22 trillion dollar national debt will be repaid. Congress is incapable of putting together a plan which even holds the line when it comes to fiscal responsibility.
I also like silver bullion here and would be an aggressive buyer on any price pullback. Platinum bullion is getting some well-deserved play – it should at these price levels.
But like I said, don’t expect any surprises – this remains a good time to accumulate – pricing looks steady, your choice of product is great and premiums for remain cheap.
We are closed Monday, Feb 18th for President’s Day, banks, USPS and markets are closed.
This from Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) – Gold Prices Up, At Weekly Highs, On Bullish Technical Momentum – Gold prices are moderately higher and at their weekly highs in early U.S. trading Friday. Technical buying is featured today as the near-term chart posture for gold remains bullish. The gold bulls are especially impressed by the early gains today that come in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar index. April gold futures were last up $7.40 an ounce at $1,321.40. March Comex silver was last up $0.107 at $15.635 an ounce.
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes have hit two-month highs this week and are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite in the marketplace this week remains generally upbeat, which is a negative for the safe-haven gold and silver markets.
Gains in Asian shares were limited today by downbeat economic data coming out of China. Its producer price index for January came in at up 0.1%, which was well down from the December gain of 0.9% and suggests slowing economic growth. Meantime, China’s consumer price index for January was reported up 1.7%–down from up 1.9% in December, year-on-year. The China inflation data continues a theme of low price inflation in the major world economies.
The U.S.-China trade talks taking place in Beijing this week have concluded, with people involved in the talks saying enough progress was made to construct a framework on the path to an agreement, and to be later added to when U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at a later date. The White House released a statement Friday morning that said hard discussions took place, but that progress was made. The two sides will continue negotiations next week in Washington. While there are still big obstacles to overcome on the matter, the marketplace is reading the discussions as making notable progress, which has in part helped to rally world stock markets this week.
The marketplace has also been assuaged this week by Trump agreeing to a U.S. budget compromise between the Democrats and Republicans, despite the agreement not having as much money appropriated for a border wall with Mexico. Trump now says he’s going to declare a national emergency to get the funding for a border wall with Mexico.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and very near its 2018 high scored in December. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $54.50 a barrel. The oil market bulls are having a good week, but stiff chart resistance is located at and just above $55.00 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Treasury international capital data.
Technically, the April gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some momentum late this week. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at the January high of $1,331.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,331.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,314.30 and then at this week’s low of $1,304.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.
March silver futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $16.20 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $15.69 and then at this week’s high of $15.83. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $15.445 and then at $15.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.”
Silver closed up $0.22 at $15.72.
Platinum closed up $17.70 at $803.40 and palladium closed up $21.30 at $1445.60.
Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?
Of course, it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think: 6 believe gold will be higher next week 1 thinks gold will be lower and 2 think it will be unchanged.
Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?
Like the employees, our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 59 people thought the price of gold would increase next week 21 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 20 think prices will remain the same.
Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Feb. 11 – Feb. 15
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