Gold Firm into the Weekend 

Gold Firm into the Weekend

Commentary for Friday, Feb 15, 2019 – Gold closed up $8.30 at $1318.10. We closed at $1307.00 this past Monday so on the week gold moved up by $11.10 – nothing to write home about but still impressively holding above $1300.00 in choppy trading.  Gold yawned over the President’s declaring an emergency this morning and the dollar surged reaching 97.4 on the index before falling to virtually unchanged around 97.00.

Crude oil since October has moved from $75.00 through $42.00 but has stabilized since early December and is now trading solidly above $50.00 which should support gold prices for now. The DOW seems happy with the latest lovefest between Trump and China so I’m not optimistic about safe haven demand for gold from Wall Street.

Still the interest in gold bullion remains consistent – not hot but interesting. Prices have been encouraging since December pushing from $1240.00 through $1320.00 but since late January have been flat. Today’s close ($1318.10) is a bit surprising and the aftermarket was up another $4.00 so this looks like an attempt to break higher.

But still no cigar – that might come next week with a close above $1320.00. Firmer pricing however does add a plus to the technical picture.

It’s plain that a break to the upside above $1350.00 would reinvigorate this market but it is also clear that recent price gains continue to encourage the rank and file core of bullion owners.

Whether you are bullish or bearish I don’t think there is much downside here especially with a dovish FOMC. Obviously a break below $1300.00 would take all the air out of the balloon but really this market could break either way, but not dramatically.

There are signs that the American public is beginning to take another look at gold and silver bullion and there are some in the trade that believe this market is just resting – looking for another up leg in a generally bullish trend which began in December of last year.

And I think its wishful thinking that our now $22 trillion dollar national debt will be repaid. Congress is incapable of putting together a plan which even holds the line when it comes to fiscal responsibility.  

I also like silver bullion here and would be an aggressive buyer on any price pullback. Platinum bullion is getting some well-deserved play – it should at these price levels.

But like I said, don’t expect any surprises – this remains a good time to accumulate – pricing looks steady, your choice of product is great and premiums for remain cheap.     

We are closed Monday, Feb 18th for President’s Day, banks, USPS and markets are closed.

This from Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) – Gold Prices Up, At Weekly Highs, On Bullish Technical Momentum – Gold prices are moderately higher and at their weekly highs in early U.S. trading Friday. Technical buying is featured today as the near-term chart posture for gold remains bullish. The gold bulls are especially impressed by the early gains today that come in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar index. April gold futures were last up $7.40 an ounce at $1,321.40. March Comex silver was last up $0.107 at $15.635 an ounce.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes have hit two-month highs this week and are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite in the marketplace this week remains generally upbeat, which is a negative for the safe-haven gold and silver markets.

Gains in Asian shares were limited today by downbeat economic data coming out of China. Its producer price index for January came in at up 0.1%, which was well down from the December gain of 0.9% and suggests slowing economic growth. Meantime, China’s consumer price index for January was reported up 1.7%–down from up 1.9% in December, year-on-year. The China inflation data continues a theme of low price inflation in the major world economies.

The U.S.-China trade talks taking place in Beijing this week have concluded, with people involved in the talks saying enough progress was made to construct a framework on the path to an agreement, and to be later added to when U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet at a later date. The White House released a statement Friday morning that said hard discussions took place, but that progress was made. The two sides will continue negotiations next week in Washington. While there are still big obstacles to overcome on the matter, the marketplace is reading the discussions as making notable progress, which has in part helped to rally world stock markets this week.

The marketplace has also been assuaged this week by Trump agreeing to a U.S. budget compromise between the Democrats and Republicans, despite the agreement not having as much money appropriated for a border wall with Mexico. Trump now says he’s going to declare a national emergency to get the funding for a border wall with Mexico.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and very near its 2018 high scored in December. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $54.50 a barrel. The oil market bulls are having a good week, but stiff chart resistance is located at and just above $55.00 a barrel.

U.S. economic reports due for release Friday include import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and Treasury international capital data.

Technically, the April gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some momentum late this week. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at the January high of $1,331.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,331.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,314.30 and then at this week’s low of $1,304.70. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.5.

March silver futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage. A 2.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of $16.20 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $15.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $15.69 and then at this week’s high of $15.83. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $15.445 and then at $15.30. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 6.0.”

Silver closed up $0.22 at $15.72.

Platinum closed up $17.70 at $803.40 and palladium closed up $21.30 at $1445.60.

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course, it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think: 6 believe gold will be higher next week 1 thinks gold will be lower and 2 think it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees, our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 59 people thought the price of gold would increase next week 21 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 20 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Feb. 11 – Feb. 15

Gold Firm into the Weekend

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s). 

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

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Gold Quiet but Watched Carefully 

Gold Quiet but Watched Carefully

Commentary for Wednesday, Feb 13, 2019 – Gold closed up $1.60 today at $1310.80. So while this market remains quiet it is also holding the public’s attention, which is unusual because when trading ranges get close it’s like watching the paint dry. Gold remains engaging however because everyone wants to see if $1300.00 will hold up.

And according to the latest Gallup poll Americans are feeling pretty good about their financial future with 79% seeing a better tomorrow. This optimism enforces Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s rather upbeat assessment as to the economy – he feels the FOMC has this interest rate conundrum under control. This settles Wall Street to some extent and while I think it’s a mistake to read too much into this most recent wave of optimism it does calm the waters and deemphasize the need for higher interest rates at least for the short term.

The next “big” meeting will be March 19th and 20th and my bet is that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged and the latest CME FedWatch Tool agrees – the probability of a “no change” outcome being 98.7%. This shows how dramatically the FOMC has altered course since early 2018 when higher interest rates were touted and generally accepted by everyone. Just a point of accuracy here – there were a few thinkers that claimed higher interest rates were never going to happen because “cheap” money had become addictive. I was not one of them but in hindsight they appear to be at least ahead of the curve.  

There are also those looking for a big dip on Wall Street (and therefore more safe haven buying in gold) if the Trump/China trade deal sinks. This is wishful thinking – even if all the tariffs were left in place, which is not likely the actual change in US GDP would be almost zero because our Gross Domestic Product number is so large. Thus a deal or no deal with China will create no waves or opportunity for gold. And considering the renewed American enthusiasm I see the fear of a shaky DOW growing less over time.

What makes gold interesting and engaging at this point are two important points. First, the combination of a now dovish FOMC and the fact that gold pricing has seen a generally rising bottoms pattern since early 2016. The first bottom ($1050.00), the second bottom ($1150.00) and the third bottom ($1200.00). Gold could even break-down at $1300.00 and this encouraging technical pattern would remain in place as long as $1200.00 was not breached.

What I would really like to see on the shorter term is a break above $1350.00. This alone would reinvigorate the gold market and dispel the notion that pricing, while higher on the shorter term is just stuck in a channel which has been in place between $1200.00 and $1350.00 for 3 years.

Everyone should be patient here – the latest Consumer Price Index suggests that the increase in inflation is the lowest we have seen in 2 ½ years and while you might think this is not good for higher prices it actually favors the bulls. Subdued inflation will encourage a dovish FOMC. And no interest rate hikes equals higher gold.

Second, and completely ignored these days is our massively large US debt. The latest numbers on the national debt are a staggering $22 trillion dollars – the largest in history. And by some accounts this explosion will soon be growing by a trillion dollars a year. These numbers are so big that most people can’t even imagine how large a “trillion” is. And further this number does not include unfunded liabilities so who really knows where this disaster might lead.      

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “Global equities were mostly higher with Russian and Australian markets bucking the trend. Overnight South Korea saw its unemployment rate jump up to a nine year high and many see that economy as a bellwether indicator for Asian economic activity. Japan saw January PPI rise by 0.6% on a year-over-year basis and that was slightly softer than expected. From the UK, core CPI on a month over month basis declined as much as was expected, but PPI input prices on a month over month basis contracted and were obviously weaker than expectations. From the euro zone the market was presented with industrial production for December and that figure came in much weaker than expectations but not as soft as the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, euro zone industrial production declined by 4.2, which is a full point worse than expectations. The North American session will start out with a weekly private survey on mortgage applications. The January consumer price index is expected to have a moderate decline from December’s 1.9% year-over-year rate. The January core consumer price index (ex-food and energy) is forecast to have a minimal downtick from December’s 2.2% year-over-year rate. Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak during morning US trading hours while Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak during the afternoon. Earnings announcements will include Barrick Gold and Louisiana-Pacific before the Wall Street opening while tech bellwether Cisco Systems, Williams, Kinross Gold and The Andersons report after the close.

While the Dollar range up extension pressured gold and silver prices in the Tuesday morning trade, the Dollar fell back in a fashion that the bear camp in gold has to be a little frustrated. In fact the gold bulls seem to be capable of shifting their focus from bearish outside market forces (like risk-on and declining macroeconomic flight to quality) to alternative bullish themes like the hope for a recovery in physical demand. While the market hasn’t paid that much attention to classic supply issues there is a threat of a strike at Sibanye following news that the company might close unprofitable shafts. In the end, the action in the Dollar has been a solid force for the daily direction of gold prices for several months and therefore buyers should be poised to exit long gold and silver positions in the event that the March Dollar Index returns to 96.85 or prices start to erode in sync with big stock market gains! The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending January 15th showed Gold Managed Money traders reduced their net long position by 6,142 contracts to a net long 43,806 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders are net long 133,866 contracts after net selling 9,906 contracts. In conclusion, internal fundamentals might have little control over gold prices over the coming 3 days and expanded volatility should be expected. The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending January 15th showed Silver Managed Money traders are net long 39,349 contracts after net selling 3,459 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders added 2,722 contracts to their already long position and are now net long 72,854.

While the palladium market failed to make a higher high during the Tuesday trade, it forged another upside breakout overnight and seems poised for a return to $1,400. Obviously the platinum market will continue to lag behind palladium on upside moves and it should lead palladium on downside moves, but a definitive risk on environment from one or two solutions to budget or trade problems could bring about a short covering bounce in platinum of $15. Under a definitive risk on environment, we suspect March palladium will spike above $1,400 and will eventually post a fresh record all-time high spec and fund long positioning. The January 15th Commitments of Traders report showed Palladium Managed Money traders added 268 contracts to their already long position and are now net long 14,159. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders are net long 15,097 contracts after net selling 67 contracts. Uptrend channel support in March Palladium today is seen at $1,337.85 while support in April platinum is seen at $787.80. The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending January 15th showed Platinum Managed Money traders added 3,459 contracts to their already short position and are now net short 10,700. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders are net long 16,133 contracts after net selling 5,081 contracts.

As we have said several times over the prior five trading sessions, the action in gold is impressive as it has shown resiliency in the face of adversity. However, a critical juncture and decision on the markets focus sits directly ahead and volatility could be similar to the volatility seen on January 25th when gold forged a daily trading range of $25. Uptrend channel support in April gold today is seen at $1,308.15 and the failure to hold that level could result in a slide down to $1,282 before the end of the week. However, if the dollar falls precipitously on progress on either trade or budget, that could give gold a double lift from currency buying and from improved physical demand hopes. Unfortunately, gold has seen some divergence with silver, platinum, palladium and copper on days with a major fundamental inflection point and that inflection point is likely to be Friday.”

Silver closed down $0.04 at $15.62.

Platinum closed up $2.30 at $788.00 and palladium closed down $2.80 at $1411.00.

This is our usual ETF information – All Gold Exchange Traded Funds:

Total as of (2/6/2019) was 70,210,305. That number this week (2/13/2019) was 69,849,383 ounces so we dropped 360,922 ounces of gold.

The all-time record high for all gold ETF’s was 85,112,855 ounces in 2013. The record high for Gold ETF’s in 2019 was 70,515,544 and the record low for 2019 was 68,732,549.

All Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (2/6/2019) was 614,978,173. That number this week (2/13/2019) was 612,266,157 ounces so we dropped 2,712,016 ounces of silver.

All Platinum Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (2/6/2019) was 2,425,580. That number this week (2/13/2019) was 2,486,025 ounces so we gained 60,445 ounces of platinum.

All Palladium Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (2/6/2019) was 780,546. That number this week (2/13/2019) was 772,640 ounces so we dropped 7,906 ounces of palladium.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s). 

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold Closes Firm

Gold Closes Firm

Commentary for Friday, Feb 8, 2019 – Gold closed up $4.30 at $1313.70 today. We closed at $1314.30 last Monday so on the week gold was down $0.60 – so remaining pretty quiet but still shouting above $1300.00. I think today’s push to higher ground was just the result of a dive in the dollar – the index pushed from 96.70 through 96.45 but decided to recover somewhat making the daily action look more choppy than anything else.

Still gold is holding in there despite a slowdown across our counter going into the weekend. Perhaps because China trade talks are still up in the air and the DOW looks at least a bit nervous.

I would describe this most recent market as constructive for the bulls but would add that caution is most likely the best approach until the next FOMC move is discovered. I use the word “discovered” because I’m not sure but I think they are privately arguing over consensus.

The recent weakness in the DOW will be cited for those looking for a recession but I think this unlikely – the job’s number continues to shine. But there is an underlying angst to the world market which encourages the bullion community. And for the naysayers of late look at gold’s late rally to higher ground today going into the weekend. There is something tickling this market, fading in and out but with a positive slant. Traders are highly sensitive to these shades of gray in a market which lacks enough real news to established or break a short-term trend. But long accounts into the weekend might suggest they are interested enough to anticipate higher prices next week. Time will tell but like I said there is something stirring in the bullish camp.  

A look at David Erfle (Kitco) is worth the time. A Few Bullish Undertones as Gold Corrects Recent Gains – “The continued strength in gold this year alongside the strong bounce in the stock market has been impressive. While global equities have taken investors on a roller coaster ride since late 2018, the gold price has gained 10% from its August 2018 lows with hardly a pullback along the way. With this move becoming long in the tooth in both price and time, it is only natural to expect gold to give back at least a small portion of its recent gains. The Chinese market has also been closed this week for the Chinese New Year Holiday, taking a huge demand component out of the sector.

Furthermore, after testing its rising 200-day moving average last week, the U.S. dollar has rallied and closed above its 50-day moving average on Thursday. Although gold has remained firmly atop $1300, the closing above this widely watched benchmark trend line is making many gold traders nervous, and rightly so, given gold’s sensitivity to the world’s reserve currency’s dominant trend. Most analysts feel the greenback has put in a long-term top, so if the recent downtrend does not resume soon, the gold complex could come under increased selling pressure in the coming days and weeks.

Meanwhile, the past two weeks of trade in January saw fund managers who are under-exposed to gold miners, send the GDX soaring 13% into the end of the month last Thursday. After financial advisors were being questioned by clients as to why they were under-weight the best performing asset class over the past six months, month-end fund buying was largely responsible for taking the GDX up eight consecutive trading sessions into the last day of trade in January.

Nevertheless, the global miner ETF was also due for a pullback after strongly outperforming gold since bullion began trading above $1300 a few weeks ago. After nearly reaching resistance at $23 by the end of January, lower volume profit taking this week has made for an orderly decline so far. This is healthy action, as opposed to dashing long-suffering gold stock speculators hopes yet again with a high-volume, intraday red candle reversal after the sector had become overbought. There is good support at the $21.50 level and stronger support just below $21 at its 200-day moving average. However, while the GDX has been correcting its recent gains, there have been a few bullish developments taking place in the sector this week. A few of the silver juniors which I own, and/or follow, have been rising strongly as the gold space corrects. Historically, when silver leads gold higher, it is bullish for the complex. But silver juniors outperforming the gold complex has historically been an indicator of a significant sector bottom being in place. There also has been numerous individual junior gold stocks flashing buy signals, along with a few others trading at multi-year highs.  

Moreover, according to a new report by the World Gold Council (WGC), holdings in global gold-backed ETFs rose 72 tonnes in January to reach 2,513 tonnes (80.8m troy ounces), hitting the highest levels in nearly six years. The industry body says the inflows were driven by market uncertainty and a shift in sentiment that drove the price of gold 3.5% higher in January.

Also in the report, the WGC said it believes “net longs increased yet remain below historical averages.” But that remains to be seen with both sentiment and positioning in Comex futures in New York being unclear at this time due to the U.S. government shutdown.

However, with the ending of the shutdown, at least temporarily, we might finally get a COT report today at 3:30pm EST. Expectations are that speculators have increased their long position dramatically. The question is by how much.

There is strong support at the $1280 level of the gold futures price and this number has held firm after being tested multiple times in January. The market consolidated below the physiological $1300 level for the first three weeks of 2019 and the safe-haven metal has cleared this important number in convincing fashion. The Fed’s policy shift last week was a very gold friendly event, so I do not expect this region to be broken on a weekly basis close unless the U.S. dollar continues higher.

Nonetheless, if the $1275 level is taken out, look for strong support at the $1240-$1250 level to come into play. The GDX will also need to stay well bid above its 200-day moving during this correction, or I would be concerned that something has gone amiss. In the meantime, this sector remains a stock pickers market until the GDX can finally muster a weekly close above long-term resistance at $25.”

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “Global equity markets overnight were mostly lower with some European markets showing minimal gains. The Asian session was relatively quiet again with a December reading on Japanese household spending coming in higher for the first time in 4 months. Also released from Japan overnight, the January Eco-Watchers survey which posted a slightly better than expected outlook and a disappointing current condition result. Overnight economic information from Europe produced German imports which were better-than-expected, a slight decline in the German current account, better-than-expected German exports and a larger German trade surplus than was expected. French industrial output for December was better-than-expected, while French nonfarm payrolls on a quarter over quarter basis remained positive but were weaker than the prior result. Italian industrial output declined by a whopping 5.5% which was significantly worse than expected. The North American session will start out with January Canadian unemployment which is expected to have a minimal uptick from December’s 5.6% reading. January Canadian housing starts are forecast to have a modest downtick from December’s 213,400 annualized rate. San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak during afternoon US trading hours. Earnings announcements will include Exelon, Phillips 66, CBOE Global Markets and Hasbro before the Wall Street opening.

All things considered gold and silver prices have stood up to patently bearish dollar action this week even if a pattern of lower highs and lower lows has prevailed thus far. It is possible that today’s action in the currency markets will be somewhat reserved due to a lack of critical US scheduled data. However economic uncertainty was rekindled by the revelation that a full trade deal would not be likely ahead of US tariff escalation at the beginning of next month. Cushioning the gold market this morning are bullish comments from a Goldman analyst who predicted “sustained” buying by central banks in 2019n (in other words equaling 2018 purchases of 650 tons) and the analyst also predicted ongoing ETF inflows. However the dollar this morning has forged another higher high and the trade was presented with news of active selling of ETF gold and silver holdings yesterday. In fact ETF’s yesterday sold 245,397 ounces of gold and that lowers this year’s net purchases to 1.72 million ounces. Furthermore ETF’s also reduced their silver holdings by 1.43 million ounces which brings this year’s “net sales” up to 8.8 million ounces. While the World Gold Council projected a slight increase in 2019 Indian gold demand (they pegged it at 750 to 800 tonnes), those levels are still below the peaks in Indian gold demand from the past. According to a story in Reuters, the northeastern Indian state of Assam is promising $530 worth of gold to every “bride from a poor family” and that follows similar assistance to farmers and other lower middle-class recipients. The article also indicated that $42 million was set aside for the fiscal year beginning April 1st for the gold program in the tea-growing state of Assam. While those moves are obviously pre-election efforts to garner political support that would seem to point to the end of government attempts to shift Indian savings/investment interest away from gold. However, until the dollar shows a sustainable reversal on its charts, the outlook for the US economy deteriorates significantly or there is a negative trade associated headline, it is difficult to call for an end to the February slide in gold prices. On the other hand, there have been some very positive long-term Indian gold demand developments this week and gold has in our opinion held up rather impressively in the face of major pressure from the dollar rally this week. Initial support and a possible target is $1,300, and then at an uptrend channel support line down at $1,298.40. However the ebb and flow of the gold market today will certainly be focused on the dollar, with a dollar price back above 96.37 unleashing fresh selling while a dollar trade back below 95.94 prompting a weekending short covering rally.

The palladium market has forged yet another higher high for the move and would appear to be on a track to retest the contract highs up at the psychological level of $1400. Clearly the palladium market remains a classic physical commodity market reacting to unending forward tightness expectations, but we also suspect the trade is emboldened by what appears to be a resilient US economy and the ever present hope of trade progress next week. Uptrend channel support in March Palladium today is seen at $1356.10 and the next resistance/target point is seen at $1383.40. However the PGM markets did see outflows of capital from platinum and palladium ETF’s yesterday and Lonmin confirmed fiscal year platinum sales of 640,000 to 670,000 ounces. The Platinum market should be supported by comments from Lonmin as they predicted significant growth in demand for both palladium and rhodium. With the palladium/platinum spread reaching $566 an ounce, one would have expected rumors of rotation but auto industry officials aren’t expected to retool quickly unless prices sustained the massive historic differential over a longer period of time. In the end the platinum market fell back below the $800 level and could retest the mid-January lows below $792 unless palladium and gold provide moderate spillover buying interest.”

Silver closed up $0.09 at $15.77.

Platinum closed up $6.00 at $799.30 and palladium closed up $13.10 at $1409.60.  

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course, it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think: 7 believe gold will be higher next week 1 thinks gold will be lower and 2 think it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees, our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 54 people thought the price of gold would increase next week 28 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 18 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Feb. 4 – Feb. 8

Gold Closes Firm

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s). 

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold Steady – A Plus for Now

Gold Steady – A Plus for Now

Commentary for Wednesday, Feb 6, 2019 (www.golddealer.com) – Gold closed down $4.70 at $1309.50 today. We closed Monday at $1314.30 so in the last few days we have drifted somewhat lower but have held a tight range. The 30 day gold price picture remains bullish in that we have pushed into higher ground moving from $1280.00 through $1320.00 but the shorter term view is that gold has paused – waiting for what I’m not sure but there has been no reaction to the political football still in place and the late sell-off today was not encouraging.

The short term Dollar Index is somewhat stronger moving from 95.25 through 96.25 and gold is still holding up which is a plus. Stocks moved lower after Trump’s State of the Union address but this did not produce much in the way of fireworks and the closed Chinese market over the Lunar holiday decreases trading interest.

So for now I still think gold is subject to an older trading paradigm – the 1 year pricing charts will show that it is subject to that pesky overhead resistance at $1350.00 which amazingly goes back to 2014.

Unless gold can break to the upside and maintain numbers above $1350.00 it appears to be stuck at least for the shorter term. That being said we are seeing some interest in physical buying in the mid-range to big boy range. This is relatively new and so is encouraging from the US side.  

The world side continues to encourage bullish hopes. This from the World Gold Council – Global gold-backed ETFs continued their strong growth in January – “Holdings in global gold-backed ETFs and similar products rose in January by 72 tonnes(t) to 2,513t, equivalent to US$3.1bn in inflows, marking the fourth consecutive month of net inflows. Notably, total holdings have not been this high since March 2013, when the price of gold was 22% higher. Global gold-backed ETF holdings have grown 6% over the past two months, driven by market uncertainty and a shift in sentiment that drove the price of gold 3.5% higher in January alone. Global assets under management (AUM) rose by 6% in US dollars to US$107bn over the month.”

Today’s gold close ($1309.50) also encourages the bullish technical position relative to its moving averages. The 50 Day Moving Average ($1274.00) the 100 Day Moving Average ($1244.00) and the 200 Day Moving Average ($1246.00).

But I think that gold traders are still fearful of a stronger dollar even though the latest FOMC inside information seems to suggest they are at least turning less aggressive. So we are back to shifting through small pieces of information on a daily basis – which makes the bigger picture more difficult to see. I think the gold community would sleep better if they simply refocused on the bigger picture. Who is going to pay back all this borrowed money and when?

Generally speaking the world gold market has had its finger on the trigger for about three years which resulted in a back and forth market mostly between $1200.00 and $1350.00. I will leave it up to the reader to decide whether this latest “awakening” in gold will ultimately produce the “big bang” some are looking for but ultimately dollar direction will decide who gets the cigar.    

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “Global equity markets overnight were mostly lower with the exceptions the Australian and Spanish markets. With the Chinese New Year holiday continuing to limit action in Asia, the focus of the trade sits squarely on upcoming data from the US. However, it is possible that news of a high level meeting between US and Chinese officials next week will serve to deflate safe haven interest in the markets and perhaps rekindle risk-on. It would not appear as if the US State of the Union address resulted in a definitive market reaction but there would appear to be increased chances of another US government shutdown over the “wall”. Overnight the markets were presented with German factory orders for December which fell surprisingly by 1.6%. However year-over-year declines in German factory orders were really startling with a decline of 7%. The North American session will start out with a weekly private survey of mortgage applications, followed by a November reading on the international trade balance which is expected to show a moderate decline in the monthly deficit. Fourth quarter non-farm productivity is forecast to have a modest decline from the third quarter’s 2.3% reading, while fourth quarter unit labor costs are expected to have a moderate increase from the third quarter’s 0.9% reading. The January Canadian Ivey PMI is forecast to have a moderate decline from December’s 59.7 reading. Fed Chair Powell and Fed Vice Chair Quarles will speak late today. Earnings announcements will include Eli Lily, GlaxoSmithKline, General Motors and Boston Scientific before the Wall Street opening while MetLife and Prudential Financial report after the close.

Despite a bit of renewed safe haven psychology from weak U.S. and European data, renewed fears of another US government shutdown, forecasts of expanding central bank gold demand and upbeat silver Institute projections for silver, prices have started out under pressure. Obviously strength in the dollar remains the primary bearish force but the charts appear to have settled into a lower high and lower low pattern. Unfortunately for the bull camp total gold derivative holdings fell again in what has become a recent trend and a major fund manager (BlackRock) indicated the Fed could still raise interest rates twice this year. In the end, the primary driving force for gold and silver will likely remain the Dollar and the Dollar looks capable of further gains! In the event the March Dollar Index manages to settle in above 96.00 that could be a psychological inflection point for a fresh wave of currency related selling of gold and silver. The delayed Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of December 31st for Gold showed Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 166,647 contracts. The delayed Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of December 31st for Silver showed Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 58,864 contracts.

Once again, divergence returned to the PGM complex yesterday with the palladium market regaining control over platinum and while that is usually a bullish condition for the complex, the bull case appears to be lacking this morning. Apparently favorable equity market gains kept the hope for favorable palladium demand in the forefront yesterday and one might expect palladium and platinum to garner some support from industry comments overnight predicting South African production of palladium will not be enough to correct the world deficit condition. In fact some PGM/Mining stocks have shown some strength recently because of consolidation in the gold mining sector but also because of the idea that demand will consistently overcome palladium supply for “years”. Close-in support in March palladium is seen today at $1,316.40 and resistance isn’t seen until $1,351. On the other hand, the platinum market faltered yesterday, closed poorly and has damaged its charts again this morning and that leaves critical pivot point support today at $816.40. The delayed (old) Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of December 31st for Palladium showed Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 14,679 contracts. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of December 31st for Platinum showed Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 19,920 contracts.”

Silver closed down $0.13 at $15.66.

Platinum closed down $6.00 at $809.80 and palladium closed up $10.40 at $1390.00.

This is our usual ETF information – All Gold Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (1/29/2019) was 70,437,430. That number this week (2/6/2019) was 70,210,305 ounces so we dropped 227,125 ounces of gold.

The all-time record high for all gold ETF’s was 85,112,855 ounces in 2013. The record high for Gold ETF’s in 2019 was 70,515,544 and the record low for 2019 was 68,732,549.

All Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (1/29/2019) was 613,124,185. That number this week (2/6/2019) was 614,978,173 ounces so we gained 1,853,988 ounces of silver.

All Platinum Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (1/29/2019) was 2,367,497. That number this week (2/6/2019) was 2,425,580 ounces so we gained 58,083 ounces of platinum.

All Palladium Exchange Traded Funds: Total as of (1/29/2019) was 785,540. That number this week (2/6/2019) was 780,546 ounces so we dropped 4,994 ounces of palladium.

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s). 

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.           

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold Settles into the Weekend

Gold Settles into the Weekend

Commentary for Friday, Feb 1, 2019 – Gold closed down $2.80 at $1316.90. The jobs number roared today, normally this would have created headwinds for gold the thinking being that with higher employment numbers the Fed would be more likely to raise interest rates. The next FOMC gathering will be March 19th and 29th but this last friendly talk seemed to indicate that they were interested in “extensive deliberations” which most believe means any hawkish talk about interest rates is now on the back burner. So if the dollar was a bit weaker today – the Dollar Index moving lower by a quarter point why is gold soft?

Most likely because this sell-off at $1322.00 is just a round of profit taking going into the weekend. Keep in mind that gold has been on a tear moving from $1280.00 through $1320.00 this past week so this soft weekend finish makes sense.

Technically the bulls are still happy but the bears may be holding a shorter term trump card in that gold prices have shown traditional weakness at $1350.00 for the past 5 years and paper players like to lock in profits when short-term gains are on the table.

But what do you think about the real increase in safe haven buying which has made these recent gains possible? ETF physical numbers are moving higher, world angst continues and central bank buying is coming back to life. So there are real reasons gold is trending higher and a break above that important overhead resistance number ($1350.00) would be a world wake up call.

And what if you think this latest small pullback is just the beginning of a downward trend in gold? You might be right but let’s wait and see what the numbers say. The bullish crowd is looking for a traditional consolidation here – some backing and filling closes which show there is plenty of support still in place to create the next push to higher ground.

I don’t think anyone can actually tell you when gold will bust to the upside – but I can proffer. This will happen when no one really expects that break – in other words it will be surprising. We may be a bit premature here in that gold does have everyone’s attention but this new reality has not been the norm.

Two years ago most deep thinkers thought gold was going to break down at $1050.00 and there were better places to look for monetary protection.

Today that sage advice has turned into the generally accepted notion that gold and silver bullion is still a reliable foil to government hyper intrusion into your personal life. Skyrocketing prices will come when eventually the dollar is challenged – we are not close to that new paradigm but that too will come to pass and gold ownership in the United States will become a necessity.       

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “The bull camp has to be a little discouraged this morning with gold and silver prices falling back modestly in the face of a weaker dollar and disappointing economic data flows overnight. Perhaps it is possible that the metals are becoming a little concerned that the net result of economic developments will be for slowing conditions and not economic turmoil and that is typically bearish to precious metals and other commodities. However the gold and silver markets did leap sharply higher yesterday in the face of much softer than expected claims data and that could set up a similar reaction this morning if US nonfarm payrolls come in softer than expectations for a gain of 165,000. However after gold and silver markets ranged up sharply yesterday and fell back sharply from their highs that could be a sign that the markets have become overbought and or are waiting for the official statements from the trade talks. Even though the Dollar rejected a washout and climbed back into positive ground yesterday, the dollar chart remains negative, economic uncertainty following US scheduled data has returned and gold is catching a lot of bullish press. In addition to positive press stories regarding surging Central Bank gold demand, the gold bulls are also embracing ideas that the Fed will be on hold for even longer. Going forward, gold should draft support from the World Gold Council comments this week that central banks added 651 tonnes to official gold reserves last year. In fact, the WGC indicated that global central bankers bought the most gold in any single year since “1967”. Furthermore, the WGC also noted improving demand for gold bars and gold coins last year and therefore the strong demand angle has certainty been given added breadth and credence.

With divergence within the PGM complex yesterday, we are somewhat less bullish toward the complex today. In fact, the lack of sustained positive leadership from palladium has not been a good environment for platinum in the recent past, and therefore both markets looked vulnerable going forward. The palladium market forged a large $52 trading range yesterday and finished poorly which leaves the $1,300 level a potential failure point today. Obviously the overall big picture macroeconomic outlook was undermined as a result of yesterday’s US scheduled data, and again by Chinese readings overnight. We also suspect that the economic outlook is tempered further following comments that a total trade deal would not be agreed to until the middle of February. Therefore, the demand outlook for palladium has been tempered as the week has progressed and pushed into the market today, we favor the downside. However, the platinum market showed very impressive action yesterday, as it ranged up, closed positively and reached the highest level since January 11th in the process. However, given the weakness in palladium and the deterioration of economic sentiment, it is possible that the gains in platinum were the result of long palladium/short platinum spread liquidation and not fresh long interest. Critical pivot point/failure pricing in April platinum today is seen at $823.40.

While the path of least resistance looks to remain up in gold and silver we detect some corrective potential today unless US data is very soft and gold rallies right on the 7:30 jobs release. However, bullish sentiment toward gold is surfacing in mainstream press coverage with various analysts/investors touting the likelihood of a long term uptrend. While the US dollar rallied off its low yesterday, US scheduled data was definitively disappointing and that should ultimately leave the dollar within its current downtrend pattern. However a fresh trend decision in the Dollar and therefore in gold should be expected today. It should be noted that the gold market yesterday filled an overhead gap with a trade above $1,328.70, and for some that might point to an intermediate top. On the other hand, in the event that the March dollar index falls back below 94.94 following US payroll data this morning, gold could quickly streak to the top of an old spike high of $1,337.80. While the silver market fell back from its highs yesterday by as much as $0.20, the market was able to close above $16.00 and that should give credence to that level as a value zone. As long as March silver holds above $15.90, we will remain bullish.”

Silver closed down $0.14 at $15.88. Looks like a big jump in 100 oz silver bar sales, have not a clue as to why. I think most think this latest interest in silver bullion gets played out above $16.00 – still action there but no rush if you know what I mean. But you never know – silver guru David Morgan (Kitco) says “We will see people flocking to $30.00 silver.” And he is right – that is just the nature of this metal and today’s market, even at $16.00 still presents a big discount to recent old highs.   

Platinum closed up $2.10 at $822.60 and palladium closed up $13.70 at $1352.00.

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course, it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think: 5 believe gold will be higher next week 2 think gold will be lower and 2 think it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees, our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 49 people thought the price of gold would increase next week 34 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 17 think gold will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Jan. 28 – Feb. 1

Gold Settles into the Weekend

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s). 

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold Firm as the FOMC Ducks

Gold Firm as the FOMC Ducks 

Commentary for Wednesday, Jan 30, 2019 – Gold closed up $1.00 today at $1309.90 but the aftermarket was up $8.60 most likely because of the dovish Federal Reserve comments. You have to like today’s close in gold in that this latest push above $1300.00 is a nice break to the upside from a pricing market which has been encouraging since late November but rather flat between $1280.00 and $1290.00 since late December. In the last 3 months the dollar has generally supported higher gold moving from 97.00 through 95.00 and settling around 96.00 but higher prices are mostly safe haven buying in my opinion. This because of our government shutdown, troubles in Europe and more troubles in the Middle East. All of this angst helped by a still sagging DOW and worries within Wall Street that the better part of this recovery might be in the rear view mirror.

The latest Fed pronouncement today, before the markets closed was decidedly dovish. They did not raise interest rates (no big deal it was not expected) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held the first of eight press conferences this year instead of the usual quarterly format. The Fed will concentrate on reducing its balance sheet which has ballooned to $4.5 trillion dollars. And lost in this rather mild conversation was the hawkish talk about interest rate hikes which was pressed in the 2018 agenda. So this will certainly help the price of gold in 2019 if they stay away from further interest rate hikes.

Still gold must push through and hold overhead resistance now at $1350.00 for all of this recent activity to prove rewarding to physical holders. I don’t see a big rush across our counter at these higher prices which is disappointing but keep in mind that gold still retains its “all in or not in” attraction with the American public. World demand – as real as it now is remains far away and ill-defined. There still is no panic in the US to protect wealth with physical metals although the idea that gold and silver bullion is a good idea has more than regained its footing. So time will tell if gold can continue to climb this “wall of worry” – my bet is simple. We will see days of complete bullish conviction coupled with bouts of “what me worry” – so pretty much the same set of trading parameters which has been in place since 2008.

In the process one of my continuing themes – who is going to eventually pay for the enormous amount of money which has been borrowed or leveraged?  I’m fairly experienced with large numbers and even I can’t get my head around just how large the federal deficit has become. And I have been watching it for years. So let me offer hard money legend Gary North’s Tip of the Week – Back in the good old days, when the U.S. government’s budget was a tight-fisted $3.5 trillion, a young man made a video. It is one of the great instructional videos of all time. It lasts 97 seconds. President Obama was promising to cut $100,000,000 from the budget. We cannot get our minds around this number. We need help. This video offers help. The help is visual. This is what we need to handle big numbers. https://www.garynorth.com/snip/1364.htm For graphic images of the federal debt — stacks of $100 bills — go here. https://www.garynorth.com/snip/1365.htm

Just for the record and only if you are new to the gold business Gary North was warning people of government excess and building financial danger in the 1970’s when I first decided that having some gold and silver bullion made sense. He was and still is ahead of the curve.

I thought Allen Sykora (Kitco) latest was interesting. Refinitiv GFMS: Gold To Avg. $1,292 In 2019; Physical Demand To Limit Gains Refinitiv GFMS looks for gold to average $1,292 an ounce in 2019, calling for increased investment demand but saying physical markets – such as jewelry – may be “subdued” due to high prices. In addition to the outlook, analysts also provided an overview of the fourth quarter, reporting that investment demand and central-bank buying both picked up.

“We expect gold prices to continue to benefit from continued economic uncertainty and a slowdown in the U.S. economy,” said GFMS analysts at Refinitiv. “As we approach the end of the economic-growth cycle, demand for defensive assets is likely to pick up as concerns deepen about the widening U.S. budget deficit and as the tariff-driven trade war starts to damage the country’s economy.”

The potential for rising inflation, an end to the cycle of rising interest rates and potential for a correction in the stock market are all factors that could boost interest in gold but hurt the U.S. dollar, analysts said.

“While ETF [exchange-traded-fund] and bar and coin demand is expected to see a return to growth, physical markets are likely to be subdued due to the higher price level,” analysts said in their report. “We therefore forecast gold to average $1,292/oz in 2019.”

Meanwhile, during the fourth quarter, investor interest perked up and speculators bought to cover short positions, or bearish bets, on Comex, the GFMS analysts reported. ETFs recorded inflows of 114 tonnes of gold, taking global ETF holdings to 2,321 tonnes, the highest level since June. However, retail investment in the form of coin and bar demand eased in the fourth quarter, with North American buying hurt by a strong U.S. dollar and optimism about the U.S. economy, analysts reported. Official-sector purchases during the fourth quarter totaled 196 tonnes, the most so far this century, according to the GFMS report. This brought total estimated net purchases for the year to 571 tonnes.

“A shift in central-bank behavior, in which further EM [emerging-market] countries are seeking to build their gold reserves, has resulted in some countries reporting their first transaction in 2018 since the turn of the century,” GFMS said. “China, which has not reported a change in its gold holdings since October 2016, reported for the first time in December a 10-tonne increase in its holdings, with weakness in the Asian equity market driven by trade tensions with the U.S. a key influencer.”

However, jewelry consumption fell globally in the fourth quarter by 3% to 560 tonnes, according to the report. Demand in Asia, which accounts for more than 80% of total global jewelry fabrication and consumption, was down following an economic slowdown, analysts said.

GFMS reported that global mine output increased by 27.7 tonnes, or by 1.2% year-on-year, during the first nine months of 2018. Indonesian output surged 32.4%, helped by higher grades, while Australian production was up 8.3% and Canada’s climbed 9.6%. The largest decreases were posted in China, South Africa and the United States, with a combined fall of 56.7 tonnes. Average all-in sustaining costs increased 4.5% year-on-year to $924 an ounce. The GFMS gold survey has been published since 1967.”

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “Global equity markets were mixed once again with a slight pattern of weakness in Asia and generally positive European/US early action. The Asian session presented a December reading on Japanese retail sales which rose more than expected, with consumers spending on appliances and clothing. The European trade brought news of a jump in UK M4 money supply growth, a rise in UK mortgage approvals, softer than expected consumer credit and net lending to individuals actually coming in stronger than expected. Also from the euro zone, industrial confidence matched expectations, but the business climate for January, economic sentiment, services sentiment and consumer confidence all came in soft. The North American session will start out with a weekly private survey on mortgage applications, followed by the January ADP employment survey which is forecast to have a sizable decline from December’s 271,000 reading. December pending home sales are expected to have a moderate uptick from November’s -0.7% reading. A round of trade talks between the US and Chinese are scheduled to begin today. The highlight for global markets will come during early afternoon US trading hours with the results of the latest FOMC meeting. While the market expects no changes to rates or policy, Fed Chair Powell will now have post-meeting press conferences after every meeting so his comments will be scrutinized for clues to upcoming policy moves. Earnings announcements will include AT&T, Boeing, McDonald’s and Thermo Fisher Scientific before the Wall Street opening tech bellwethers Microsoft and Facebook posting earnings today. Other earnings include Mondelez and Tesla report after the close.

The April gold contract has forged another higher high extension and reached up to the highest level since June 15th in a move this morning that would appear to have legs. It is a little surprising to see gold continue to rise in the face of bearish Indian gold demand/import news from Gold Fields Mineral Services overnight and that highlights the strength on the bull camp. Another bearish gold story that is being ignored by the gold trade today came from Australia where Newcrest mining posted a year-over-year quarterly gold production increase of 42,000 ounces. On the other hand the GFMS report might be seen as a fresh bullish development for silver, as the consultancy group is suggesting that Indian demand is starting to shift toward silver and away from gold. Understandably consumers are giving silver a fresh look at the expense of gold with Indian gold prices in terms of the Rupee near all-time highs while silver is being viewed as “cheaper”. Clearly the bull camp has a number of bull arguments that might be expected to become even more powerful in the day ahead. In particular, we see the Fed decision later today as a potential major bearish development for the dollar which in turn would be a significant bullish development for gold and silver prices. In our opinion, the Fed should acknowledge the vast amount of global slowing evidence, the obvious drag from the US government shutdown and the unresolved US/Chinese trade war. It is possible that the Fed might utter some hawkish words regarding ongoing strength in the US jobs market but if that strength is found to be fading, the Dollar index could quickly fall below 95.00. A decline below 95.00 in the Dollar index could project an April gold rally up above $1,335.00. On the other hand, the April gold contract from last week’s lows has already rallied roughly $36 an ounce and the FOMC result could prompt significant price volatility. There is an old gap area that starts up at $1,337.20 in April gold and that gap will not be filled until $1,345.60, and for some that could be a near term technical objective.

The palladium market appears to be coiling this week as if another major trend decision is in the offing. While the palladium market should have been undermined by a Reuters’ poll yesterday suggesting palladium prices will fall back to a discount versus gold in the coming year, palladium should get a lift later today if the net take away from the FOMC meeting is “dovish” as we expect it to be. Unfortunately, global macroeconomic views are generally limiting of commodities but a weak Dollar is providing some cushion to prices. A Reuters’ poll released yesterday pegged palladium prices this year to average only $1,200 an ounce and that is bearish given recent futures prices above $1,300. It should also be noted that Russian palladium miner Nornickel overnight forecasted an increase in their output of palladium this year with production expected to rise by 50,000 to 60,000 ounces. That same Reuters poll pegged average platinum prices this year to be $856 an ounce, and that is bullish considering that prices are currently trading $815. In a slightly supportive story, Swiss platinum and palladium imports for all of 2018 were reportedly higher than in the prior year. Historically, Switzerland has been a key wholesale delivery merchant for the world platinum group metals markets. A Russian platinum miner overnight indicated their 2019 platinum production could fall slightly or increase by a very modest and insignificant 17,000 ounces.

While the dollar is trading softer this morning it has not made a fresh low for the move which would have given gold and silver an even bigger lift. Furthermore global equity markets are generally calm and the gold trade might avoid early positions because of news from the Fed in the early afternoon and possible trade news late in the day. However, the path of least resistance remains up throughout the precious metals markets, even though short-term technical conditions are leaning toward overbought status. However, in our opinion it is likely that the Fed outcome later today will result in a “buy the rumor” extension and perhaps even a “buy the fact” extension if the Fed is more dovish than hawkish. If one were to be exclusively data dependent, the Fed should give a nod to slowing especially if they consider geopolitical headwinds and the US government shutdown. Key support in April gold is seen at $1,305 and near term upside counts provides a retracement target up at $1,329.90. It should be noted that the silver rally has yet to reach a 50% retracement of the 2018 slide at $16.07, but the $16 level is obviously some form of psychological resistance to start today, especially with the market failing to take out that level on its first attempt today.”

Silver closed up $0.09 at $15.88.Gold Firm as the FOMC Ducks

Platinum closed up $0.30 at $812.00 and palladium closed up $12.80 at $1354.80.  

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold Bulls Remain Hopeful 

Gold Bulls Remain Hopeful 

Commentary for Friday, Jan 25, 2019 – Gold closed up $18.30 at $1297.40, close but no cigar. Gold opened flat and then decided, once again to be contrary – pushing towards the vaulted $1300.00 mark. This “flash” weekly finish is encouraging but considering the Washington mess and the fact that gold closed Tuesday at $1282.50 it may be another tempest in a teapot.

This sudden jump in price began as the dollar tanked – the Dollar Index moved from 96.4 through 95.9 most likely on a combination of political woes and economic news. The government shutdown continues but the clock ticking (maybe), the China-US trade talks drag on and there is another Federal Reserve meeting next week.

I also suspect the arrest of Trump’s friend Roger Stone brings joy to the Democrats and adds further froth to the rumors of problems in the Trump White House.

All of this continuing angst supports higher gold prices. But is this latest “inside info” just another version of a Keystone Cops short film. I used to love these when I was a kid, everyone running around in circles. I’m sorry to say that this funny nonsense eventually replaced the sober reckoning I used to have of politics when I was in college. At any rate I will leave it up to the reader as to whether or how serious anyone should take these latest political revelations.

In the meantime, keep your eye on the shorter term 60 day pricing chart. Today’s “pop” to the upside certainly helps the bullish position and more importantly reinvigorates an upward trend which was looking pretty worn out. But a look at the 5 year pricing chart requires some caution. I’m always suspicious when everyone is getting out the champagne and party hats.

The longer view of gold clearly shows a market struggling at the well-established $1350.00 overhead resistance. And like I have pointed out before gold must move and stay above $1350.00 before all these recent fireworks will be justified.

If gold cannot brush off the remaining cobwebs we remain stuck in a range which has been in place for 6 years – with plenty of political intrigue but no inflation to spark and enflame prices.

So keep your powder dry – if gold runs however this market will be transformed quickly because there are plenty of watchers and plenty of punters who will turn into buyers if the world financial structure begins to crack – even a little bit.  Finally worth noting – Alex is cleaning out the safes – he has a flash sale on today and Monday if you are so inclined listen to the quote line.

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “While the charts remain vulnerable with another lower low probe for the week yesterday, the bull camp has to be cheered slightly because the gold market posted another rejection of the $1,275 level and prices are showing some strength to start today. Fortunately for the bull camp the Dollar has faltered from the very definitive upward thrust yesterday and therefore currency related pressure is missing to start today. Apparently gold continues to draft some safe haven support from the realization yesterday that US/Chinese trade talks were not as close to resolution as was hoped for last week. However, the market is comforted by news that China was found to be adding to its central bank reserves! The Chinese addition to reserves was reported to be the first “add” to reserves in two years, but we think the “add” is simply the first time the Chinese have allowed the inflow to be known. In the current environment the Chinese can shape the gold reserve investment as a sign they are re-allocating capital away from US Treasuries. Another development overnight that might add to the initial bull tilt is word from Asia of increased Wedding season buying in India. A slightly negative impact on gold was seen yesterday following an EU parliament vote to reject a proposal to would have allowed greater liquidity rules for banks trading gold in the euro zone. However we don’t think the gold market rallied off the hope of more European gold trading liquidity. Another tempering development facing the trade today is bearish comments from Mark Mobius who cautioned gold buyers that the Fed could still hike rates this year. In the end the bias is up but the bull case doesn’t dominate unless the Dollar falls back below 96.00. Total gold derivative holdings overnight fell minimally to 56.5 million ounces.

The palladium market broke down on the charts again overnight and that leaves the market in a negative technical condition into the last trading session of the week. Since we had difficulty justifying and at times explaining the massive run up in palladium prices over the last 2 months, we are a little hesitant to label the source of the current washout. However, we suspect that weakness in the Chinese economy is at least partially behind the slump from the January highs. In fact with hope for a US/Chinese trade deal dashed yesterday and prices sliding sharply yesterday, the Chinese situation is a weight hanging over the PGM trade. With the platinum market rallying in the face of a breakdown in palladium prices again overnight, we suspect some spread liquidation is taking place. While it would appear as if platinum found a solid value at this week’s lows, we have difficulty projecting platinum prices sharply higher in the current environment. Near term downside targeting in March palladium is seen at $1260.80 with support in April platinum moving up to $796.40.

With a strong upward thrust in the dollar this week, several probes down to $1,275 in February gold and weakness in a wide mix of physical commodity markets the bear camp retains a trend edge. While we give the bull camp a slight early edge to start the odds of a narrow trading range appear to be high. However the dollar has reversed from the spike up yesterday and a trade back below 96.00 in the Dollar could wake up a wave of gold buyers. On the other hand inability to hold above $1,275.30 could project a weekending washout in the February gold down to $1,269.10. In the silver market, a two day corrective bounce probably balanced the oversold condition into the low Tuesday and that could now set the stage for a failure down to $15.195.”

This insight from Gary Wagner (Kitco) is interesting and adds to the drama. Golden Cross Identified in Gold – “Market technicians use a multitude of moving averages in terms of’ the time cycles. These can vary from extremely short averages of three, seven or 10 minutes in length. Daily moving averages analyze long-term cycles and look at market momentum in terms of the big picture and long sustained moves.

In the case of looking for long sustained moves, the standards include a 50-day moving average, which indicates the intermediate or short-term trend of a stock or commodity. A 200-day moving average to indicate the long-term trend of a stock or commodity.

One of the more important technical patterns which market technicians are constantly looking for is when a cross occurs between two different length moving averages. When a longer-term moving average crosses below a shorter-term moving average it is called a “death cross”. This pattern is considered a bearish breakout which indicates that the market has been in a defined downtrend and has now broken with more momentum indicating a further decline in price.

When a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term moving average it is labeled as a “golden cross”. This bullish breakout pattern can be created when any two different length moving averages have the shorter-term average crossing above the longer-term average. Most importantly this pattern indicates bullish market momentum.

Obviously, one of the most significant golden cross’s is when the 50 day, average, crosses above the 200-day moving average. Because markets do not trade straight up or straight down, technicians use a single moving average to determine the current trend. However, the cross (bullish or bearish) determines not only trend but more importantly indicates strong momentum is occurring in terms of the current trend visible in any given market.

Which takes us to our current scenario in gold. Over the last two days, we have identified a golden cross occurring on the daily charts in which the 50-day moving average is now crossed above the longest term 200-day moving average. This could indicate stronger momentum in terms of the bullish trend, which would result in higher pricing for gold.”

Silver closed up $0.40 at $15.64.

Platinum closed up $14.50 at $813.50 and palladium closed up $39.10 at $1358.80.

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think: 8 believe gold will be higher next week – none thinks gold will be lower and 3 think it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 48 people thought the price of gold would increase next week – 29 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 23 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Jan. 21 – Jan. 25

Gold Bulls Remain Hopeful

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold Sill Choppy after MLK 

Gold Sill Choppy after MLK 

Commentary for Tuesday, Jan 22, 2019 – Hello again and thanks for stopping by for a short visit in your busy day. Gold opened higher today after the MLK holiday sold off and then recovered somewhat settling up $1.20 on the day at $1282.50. You could make a case that today’s interest came as a result of weakness in stocks or last minute weakness in the dollar – the Dollar Index moved from 96.46 through 96.23. If you are a technical type watcher you won’t like the breakdown of the current trading range which began in early January around $1290.00 and over the past few weeks has trended lower towards $1280.00. But this is just another sign of consolidation, the big question remains will gold hold higher ground?

At the same time the general political and trade discontent both here and in Europe seems to suggest that today’s dollar has a short shelve life. I’m not on board yet but eventually this has to be true and will be one of the primary reasons gold will hold up and move higher. Kitco heavyweight Peter Hug suggests that “higher” is closer than you think with 2019 presenting us with $1500.00 gold.

In the meantime this choppy and somewhat nervous market is just part of a precious metals market trying to reinvent itself in the new world of leveraged and fiat paper money. For the record I would ignore the day to day – unless you just like the rhetoric. The bigger picture for gold today is that the latest move from $1200.00 through $1300.00 is being watched carefully. It’s possible that gold could once again fail but like I’m fond of saying I really don’t think there is big downside at these numbers and the upside could be surprisingly good if the politicians and bankers find out that they have released the inflation genie.      

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “The gold market has rebounded impressively from the overnight low with a rally of eight dollars. While there is some anxiety from global equity market declines, in the wake of pessimistic IMF world growth projections, the magnitude of the declines in equities isn’t large enough to justify such a noted bounce in gold prices. In fact with the US dollar basically unchanged this morning, the magnitude of the gold bounce must be partially attributable to the oversold condition into the overnight low following the big range down washout last Friday. With the US apparently seeking extradition of a Chinese tech sector executive and the Chinese government lashing back at that news, a certain measure of geopolitical safe haven buying interest is to be expected. It is also likely that the slowest Chinese economic growth pace in 28 years overnight has fostered some macroeconomic safe haven interest in gold. While the strike at a Sibanye mine in South Africa is taking place at platinum facilities it is possible that some minor spillover buying is being seen in gold from that news. Unfortunately for the bull camp exchange traded funds reduced their holdings by 87,020 ounces in the most recent readings but the net purchases this year still stand at 1.29 million ounces. According to Bloomberg the decline in ETF holdings was the biggest one day decline since December 3rd. Barrick gold 2018 full year gold production was pegged at 4.53 million ounces and that might be seen as slightly supportive of gold as the company’s guidance on output was for output of 4.5 to 5.00 million ounces.

The palladium market is in an early freefall with prices into the low this morning reaching $108 an ounce below last week’s spike high. With the psychological $1400 level not taken out last week and press coverage on the bull case last week some of the most active flow we have seen on the market in years, it is possible that the market reached a temporary bullish zenith in prices. Even more surprising is the fact that the AMCU union has heightened its strike pressure on a Sibanye mine in South Africa with “no workers” reporting for work (according to union officials) and yet that has not cushioned platinum prices which broke out down this morning and have reached the lowest level since January 2nd. On the other hand ETF holdings in both platinum and palladium increased in the most recent report with platinum holdings building for the sixth straight session. Given the technical damage and momentum in March Palladium, a further decline to a recent consolidation low down at $1,274.10 is likely. Critical support in April platinum is now seen down at $787.90.

While the bias in gold looks to be up the presence of slowing economic activity from the Chinese and from the IMF that news also leaves a measure of deflationary concern hanging over the metals markets. Furthermore the dollar charts generally remain bullish and without disappointing economic news from the US later today the evidence of international slowing overnight might leave the dollar underpinned. Obviously the overnight spike low down at $1276 was rejected leaving that level as some form of value. However closer in support is seen at $1280.10 but the market might be limited on the upside by the underside of the early January consolidation which begins at $1286.50. The silver market also ranged sharply lower overnight and rejected that washout and is trading a somewhat impressive 12 cents above its early low in a fashion that suggests the market found some value. However given slower global growth projections and a very negative chart pattern since early January, we have to leave the edge with the bear camp.”

Silver closed down $0.07 at $15.26.Gold Sill Choppy after MLK 

Platinum closed down $11.30 at $786.50 and palladium closed down $28.60 at $1345.50.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold Settles into the Long Weekend

Gold Settles into the Long Weekend

Commentary for Friday, Jan 18, 2019 – Gold closed down $9.70 at $1281.30. So if you are like me this market has you scratching your head – your generally upbeat but can’t quiet figure out why gold is struggling mightily with that $1300.00 level. Especially since the democratic vote of the people cannot be consummated either here or in England.

The Brits don’t like anyone telling them what to do so it was inevitable that a break from the European Union was in the cards. And while Theresa May survived a no confidence vote she can’t work out the politics necessary to carry out the popular Brexit vote.

The same is true of Trump – a government shutdown drags on as the Democrats and Republicans argue over funding and the wall.

I would not argue the sense in either of these apparently voter approved (the Wall or Brexit) but I would say that with so much confusion on both sides of the ocean gold should be moving higher.

Today is a good example, however of why this is not the case. China places an offer on the table to perhaps cool the trade war inclination and even though politics remain a mess – Wall Street trading moves into the green and gold’s safe haven value is questioned.

And of course the dollar remains primary factor. The Dollar Index has moved from 95.00 through 96.00 this past week raining on the gold bulls.

There will likely be no new FOMC information until late March and even this meeting might be the confirmation that the Fed is turning dovish enough as to suggest they will not take further action until summer – much to the delight of the gold bullion community.

Or will they change their minds again? If Wall Street roars and confidence in the economy is once again promised the FOMC might just revert to its old rhetoric – more interest rates in store.

In the meantime what are the technicians looking for? The near term trading range has everyone’s attention. It will be used to determine if gold is just resting, ready for that next leg up or breaking down looking to test new recent lows.

The key level gold must hold is something between $1280.00 and $1290.00. A break in these numbers which have been in place since early January and we all could be looking at $1240.00 or perhaps in a worst case scenario $1220.00.

While all of this is working itself out look for gold to keep churning – we are up something like $70.00 since December. A churning market might imply gold is having trouble moving higher just because in the past 5 years it has lost momentum at least 3 times at $1350.00. This defines a kind of background tension which could develop into profit taking.

It is interesting that Wells Fargo recently turned bullish on the metals but added that if gold moved above $1350.00 it would change its mind.

If gold moved above $1350.00 I would move all in – a break to the upside at those levels would confirm, at least in my mind that things in financial River City are in real disarray and this latest push to higher ground is just the beginning of a potential large comeback in gold.

So once again gold faces a critical juncture in this long consolidation pattern.

Don’t look for certainty in this current gold market. It is plain that gold remains a critical part of financial planning as the world tries to figure out its financial future. But the amount of fiat paper money continues to build in dramatic fashion. Lots of free money creates a sense of security in the financial world – as long as the top keeps spinning.

We will be closed this Monday (Jan 21st) for Martin Luther King Day – the commodity markets, the banks and the post office will also be closed.

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “After gold and silver tightened their coiling patterns earlier this week a failure this morning in the gold market sets a decidedly bearish tone for the last trading session of the week. While dollar gains are modest this morning and the Dollar is probably contributing to the weakness in gold it is likely that gains throughout global equity markets from trade rumors have pulled a wave of safe haven longs from gold and silver. While the markets were tossing around the idea that the US might be poised to remove tariffs as a show of good faith in the negotiations administration officials have failed to confirm that prospect. Certainly some of the selling in gold this morning is fresh outright selling considering the failure to hold what had become a fairly solid consolidation low zone on the charts. However the gold market ends this week with total gold derivative holdings reaching up to the highest level since June of last year, while silver derivative holdings have dipped down to the lowest level since December of 2016. It is possible that the gold market is seeing some liquidation off reports that recent gold price gains have deterred Indian and Chinese buyers and that is partially confirmed by anemic buying in Indian in the face of an expanding gold price discount. Not surprisingly Chinese gold prices continue to register a premium of six dollars to nine dollars but regional sources suggest that demand has been soft. In fact some Chinese dealers have indicated that buying head of the lunar New Year celebrations has already taken place.

While the sharp range up explosion in palladium prices yesterday saw prices close nearly $50 an ounce below the high the market has flashed higher again today as if the upward track remains in place. In the end the palladium market yesterday forged a very expansive range of $76 which should be pushing the market toward an exhausted technical condition. This week we have seen more market coverage of the reason behind the rally in palladium than we have seen in many years. Most of the coverage focused on strong auto catalyst demand, a 1.1 million ounce world deficit and the inability to expand supply. With the expanded press coverage of the massive rally and wide swings in prices that could suggest that the bull story is becoming saturated. Certainly there are minor supply-side threats from ongoing labor developments in South Africa, but the trade hasn’t focused intensely on that situation. In the month of January alone, palladium has forged a low to high rally of $210 (or 17%) and we suspect two-sided volatility will expand dramatically and a top could follow further near term blow-off gains. However, given thin conditions and a lack of a clear credible fundamental driving force, a top could be $1,400, $1,450 or even $1,500. If there were actively traded put options on palladium futures, we would be looking to purchase puts.

Clearly the initial damage today on the gold chart has resulted in a downside breakout of a recent consolidation range and that should foster added stop loss selling. Perhaps the trade rumors have severely punctured the safe haven argument. In our opinion longs should be exiting because of trade hope, soothing US Fed news, generally favorable US economic news and equity market gains as conditions that have clearly lowered economic uncertainty. In retrospect the equity markets have traversed the latest UK exit debacle without anxiety, China has stepped forward to cushion its economy and equity action is fostered optimism. The failure below $1286.50 would seem to set a near term target down at $1280.90. However we don’t get the impression that gold prices are set for a massive wholesale liquidation. The silver market has also forged another lower low for the move but is clearly within an extremely uniform lower high and lower low downtrend channel pattern that projects near term downside targeting in March silver at $15.40.”

Silver closed down $0.14 at $15.33.

Platinum closed down $10.00 at $797.80 and palladium closed up $28.40 at $1374.10.

Our Patented Employee Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Of course, it’s not really patented but we do have some fun along the way. This is what the GoldDealer.com employees think: 7 believe gold will be higher next week 1 thinks gold will be lower and 2 think it will be unchanged.

Our Patented Customer Survey – Gold’s Direction Next Week?

Like the employees, our customers were given three choices – up – down – unchanged. We limited the survey to a random sampling of 100 transactions – unscientific but worth considering because these people took action: 45 people thought the price of gold would increase next week 20 believe the price of gold will decrease next week and 35 think prices will remain the same.

Precious Metal Closes & Dollar Strength – Jan. 14 – Jan. 18

Gold Settles into the Long Weekend

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Posted on

Gold – Now Optimistic or Tired?

Gold – Now Optimistic or Tired?

Commentary for Tuesday, Jan 15, 2019  – Gold closed down $2.90 today at $1286.20. Looks pretty quiet out there folks – as gold continues to move in a tight trading range. I think the trade remains somewhat positive given recent history but remember anyone associated with the physical gold market has a short memory. It is always what have you done for me lately and frankly, considering all that is going on I would not have expected gold to be so quiet.

The British are still fighting over Brexit, the US government shutdown is getting pathetic and world trade remains worried about the Chinese numbers. The DOW moving above 24,000 does not help safe-haven demand. Still gold remains in the fight as the dollar drifts higher – the Dollar Index moved from 95.47 through 96.25 enough to put a halt to gold’s upward early trading bias around $1294.00.

So you tell me – is this market getting ready to move higher?

Is the bullish trend established in late November, which suggested gold would soon trade above $1300.00 enough to satisfy its base? Or does its recent loss of momentum suggest that this latest move to higher numbers is tired? And the follow through needed to challenge the real gold Mount Everest ($1350.00) is simply wishful thinking.

The answer to this question, even with all the political noise we have to put up with these days centers again around the FOMC. They will meet on January 29th and 30th and the learned among us claim this meeting will be no big deal – a steady as she goes clambake.

The next FOMC meeting (March 19th and 20th) is another matter – if the DOW roars back the governors will consider another interest rate hike and even this consideration would hurt gold given inflation numbers remains calm. I appreciate the fact that some in the gold community believe that gold could move higher as interest rates push higher and this may be true – but I’m not on board yet.

A bullish gold argument which has been around forever but has been lost in all this white noise was again cited by Neils Christensen (Kitco). John Hathaway, chairman of gold fund heavyweight Tocqueville Management Corp claims that burgeoning US debt relative to its gross national product will swamp our financial ship – pushing the dollar dramatically lower and gold dramatically higher.

The idea that our growing cumulative national debt is now larger than our gross national product should make your head spin but for some reason has lost its resonance. This is true because while this situation is not unheard of internationally it does not seem to create financial fear and lead to a downgrade of the county’s creditworthiness.

Just how long everyone can get away with this hat trick remains to be seen but the argument is sound and does in the longer term support the price of gold.

This from Zaner (Chicago) – “We continue to think that the gold market is in the process of losing upside momentum with the $1,300 level becoming more significant resistance with every day spent trading under that level. In a continuing trend South African gold output for November (the latest figures available) showed another decline of 14% on a year-over-year basis and output also declined by 14.8% on a month over month basis. While the dollar showed some weakness yesterday, it has forged a 4 day upside breakout early today and that should spark some currency related selling of gold today. While a buyout within the gold mining sector yesterday might hint at some value of gold assets, hints of progress on a US/Chinese trade deal from the President yesterday could force gold to shift its bullish focus from safe haven buying to weak Dollar buying. In the meantime, it will probably take significant declines in equities and/or a series of softer than expected US data points to see gold test and take out the $1,300 level. There does appear to be a number of bullish annual forecasts for gold surfacing in the media. With many of those bullish 2019 predictions based on strong physical demand from China and India, strengthening central bank purchases and significant losses in the Dollar, it could be a tall order to get all of those forces operating in concert.

With significant divergence between platinum and palladium seen again yesterday, some weakness in physical commodities and definitive slowing evidence from China, palladium hasn’t been deterred. In fact evidence of slowing Chinese car sales, slowing Chinese economic data and weakness in the rest of the metals complex is simply being ignored as palladium this morning appears to be poised for more all-time high action. In fact, March palladium did carve out a minor new all-time high Monday which defeats the argument of lost momentum. It should be noted that palladium prices on Monday saw a higher high than gold, and that headline might serve to pull further speculative interest into palladium in the days ahead. So far, total palladium and platinum derivative holdings have not shown any discernable trend of inflows and that might mean the bull case for palladium has yet to reach the small investor and that could mean that the bullish condition has not reached a blown-out condition yet. Obviously the $1,300 level in March palladium is psychological resistance but until there is a fundamental of significance to justify a top, the trend remains up. On the other hand, platinum suffered significant chart damage yesterday and it seems to be catching the brunt of slowing fears along with other industrial commodities.

We remain skeptical of the bull case in gold and think the market will have to shift its focus away from classic safe haven support and toward weak Dollar support to rekindle the upward track seen prior to the initial foray to $1,300. In fact, the sideways consolidation has extended to eight days and that is longer than the mid December setback wave. However, open interest has expanded consistently and one could point out a “general pattern” of higher lows on the February gold chart, as a partially bullish chart interpretation.”

Silver closed down $0.06 at $15.55.Gold – Now Optimistic or Tired?

Platinum closed down $3.20 at $795.60 and palladium closed down $4.90 at $1274.60.

When buying or selling you will receive an email confirmation. This includes a PDF File to confirm your invoice or purchase order and includes forms of payment and bank wire instructions. When doing business please check to see if your current email has been entered into the new system and that your computer will accept our email (no spam). Thanks for letting us know when you move or change your email.”

We believe our four flat screens downstairs with live independent pricing are unique in the United States. The walk-in cash trade can see in an instant the current prices of all bullion products and a daily graph illustrates the range of the markets on any given day.

Yes – you can visit the store with cash and walk away with your product. Or you can bring product to the store and walk away with cash. We will also wire funds into your account that same day for a small service fee ($25.00) if you are in a hurry.

In addition to our freshly ground coffee we offer complimentary cold bottled water, Cokes and Snapple. We also provide fresh fruit in a transparent attempt to disguise our regular junk food habits as we sneak down the block for the best donuts in the world (Randy’s).

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @CNI_golddealer – have some fun.

We appreciate your friendship and business. Enjoy the evening and thanks for reading.            

Disclaimer – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metals and rare coin market is random and highly volatile so it may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.