Author: Richard

Gold – Will Prices Hold Up?

Commentary for Friday, Dec 1, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $32.90 at $2071.00, and silver closed up $0.21 at $25.50. This week some traders are considering the possibility that the price of gold will not substantially retreat despite higher interest rates and hawkish Powell comments. This seems a bit counterintuitive, and perhaps premature, but gold did finish in the green four days this week. There is not enough science behind this new trading wrinkle to keep the conservative bullish trade from fearing higher interest rates. But the kernel of truth which created this novel thinking is plain enough – traders and the public continue to buy weakness, nudging gold prices higher. Last Friday gold closed at $1991.40 / silver at $23.67 – on the week gold was up $79.60 and silver was higher by $1.83. We will be closed December 25^th (Monday) and December 26^th (Tuesday) for Christmas. And January 1^st (Monday) for New Years. Holiday Insured mail is slow and unpredictable, please plan accordingly. Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!        

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. 

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold was typically choppy in the early trade, moving between $2008.00 and $2016.00 with a small upward bias. Still, gold’s price action seems a bit flat at these higher levels even though its technical picture suggests higher prices might be an option.

If you suspect gold’s momentum is turning south the 60-day pricing chart might offer better insight as momentum slows and our shiny friend consolidates between $1950.00 and $2000.00. This seems like a better fit because the Fed interest rate question is still undecided.

If you are looking for a better horse in this race, consider the silver bullion market. Granted prices are at 3-month highs, but its technical picture is still creating buzz. Its cost per ounce is much less than gold, allowing for wider participation. This aspect of silver investment is rarely explored these days but is a big plus because its price allows anyone to get started.

There are developing reasons to consider higher silver prices. Its possible upside is still being explored within the “green movement” and solar panel innovations. Finally, if you are optimistic about our economy silver prices tend to rise in times of economic expansion.

Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold nudges higher on dollar dip, Fed pause bets – “Gold hit a six-month high on Monday as a softer dollar and expectations of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening helped bullion consolidate above the key $2,000 an ounce level. The dollar (.DXY) hovered near a three-month low, making greenback-priced gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. Gold is likely to trade around $2,000 for a little bit until we get some more information from the Fed on its plan on interest rates, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “Gold will trade higher if they are done with rate hikes for the time being.” Traders widely expect the U.S. central bank to hold rates in December, while pricing in about a 50% chance of a cut in May next year, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets, often boosting gold prices. Investors’ attention will be on the U.S. third-quarter GDP figures on Wednesday and the PCE price index due on Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. “Economic figures coming out of the U.S. this week, both on the growth and inflation front, will make or break a case for whether gold remains above $2,000,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com. On the physical front, data showed that top consumer China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell for a second consecutive month in October as a patchy economic recovery weighed on demand in the key bullion market. Silver jumped 1.3% to $24.62, platinum fell 1.6% to $915.44 and palladium was down 1.3% to $1,055.24 per ounce.”

On the day gold closed up $9.60 at $2011.80, and silver closed up $0.34 at $24.67.

On Tuesday the price of gold continued to make the bulls smile as gold surged ($2040.00) and held this high into the close. This extra optimism is firmly attached to the notion that the Fed is finished raising interest rates in the short term, and in fact has enough gas in the tank to lower rates in case recession clouds create economic anxiety.

Optimistic or not, this latest jump to higher ground has a life all its own as computer programs wake up around the world and momentum players join the party. I’m still too old school not to show appropriate caution about these higher prices. Even though Fed insiders seem more relaxed, perhaps even dovish about Fed interest rate policy.

This turn in sentiment could be transitory. But it is amazing that not long ago all the Fed governors were hawkish and prepared to stop rising inflation with higher interest rates.

But for now, let’s enjoy this bullish ride. The economy remains steady, and inflation may continue to decline. The answer as to why gold and silver continue higher might even become obvious: Perhaps the Fed has created too much fiat currency, making gold and silver more valuable. That is what usually happens, but in this upside-down world let’s remain cautious.

Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold extends gains on Fed pause bets, dollar retreat – “Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday and hit a more than six-month high, driven by a retreating dollar and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve has finished hiking interest rates. Gold continues to be bullish in the near term, with the dollar index in a downtrend on hopes the Fed will no longer raise interest rates and will maybe even cut rates by springtime, Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said. However, “if (U.S.) GDP numbers and inflation indicators are stronger than expected, it will dent traders’ enthusiasm in bullion,” Wyckoff added. Traders widely expect the U.S. central bank to leave rates unchanged in December and are pricing in about a 50% chance of cuts in May next year, CME’s FedWatch Tool shows. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing bullion. U.S. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is “increasingly confident” that policy is in the right spot. Making bullion less expensive for overseas buyers, the dollar index touched its lowest since mid-August. Investors will monitor Thursday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The focus is also on the revised U.S. third-quarter GDP figures scheduled for Wednesday. “A sense of caution ahead of another busy week for global financial markets is also lending support to the precious metal. Given how the $2,000 level proved an extremely tough resistance to conquer, gold could end up dipping without a potent fundamental catalyst,” FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga said. Silver rose 0.8% to $24.81 per ounce; platinum was up 1.9% to $935.74. Palladium fell 1.2% to $1,058.01 per ounce.”

On the day gold closed up $27.90 at $2039.70, and silver closed up $0.26 at $24.93.

On Wednesday the price of gold cooled on the open, recovered and finally managed to finish in the green for the day, a plus for the bulls. And the third green finish in as many days. But many are beginning to worry about gold’s overhead resistance at $2050.00. It has played an important role since last April as gold tried on three occasions to overcome this obstacle and failed.

This could suggest a tired market looking to consolidate, which is the line the technically minded trader would likely follow. I feel this conclusion is the most popular assumption today.

The hard asset optimist, however, sees an equally good argument for higher prices in gold. Especially if the Fed is finished with higher interest rates. The $2050.00 overhead shelf is thin, and a break to the upside is not a big stretch.

This of course would further rally the physical market developing the notion that gold may double in value. I talked with a long-time customer not long ago and asked him what he thought of $2000.00 gold? His answer was straightforward – “This is just the beginning – mark my words, gold is moving much higher.” This may sound like a radical idea to some, but only because it has never happened. True followers, however, rarely question this outcome.

FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Showing Signs Of Exhaustion – “Gold initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but gave back gains rather quickly as we are overextended by just about any measure you use. The Relative Strength Index is reaching the overbought condition, and of course we are testing a previous resistance barrier that was very difficult to overcome multiple times. Because of this, and the fact that we had gotten straight up in the air rather quickly tells me that a short-term pullback makes a certain amount of sense. That being said, I’m not necessarily looking to short this market, but if we see the US dollar pick up a little bit of strength in an oversold condition, it will show itself in the gold market as well. The market certainly has a lot of bullish pressure underneath it, but I think given enough time we probably will have to work off some of this excess froth. If we were to break out from here, that would actually be somewhat dangerous considering the last couple of days have been straight up and vertical. Underneath, the $2000 level is an area that I believe will offer a significant amount of support and a potential “floor in the market.” This of course assumes that we even get down there, which is not something that I think will be easy to make happen. However, the PCE Core Price Index coming out on Thursday could cause a lot of volatility in the markets as it is the Federal Reserve’s favorite indicator. It might be an excuse for people to take quite a bit of profit in this market, as gold has been explosive as of late. Recently, we have been seeing some conflicting statements coming out of Federal Reserve governors, and that of course has the markets being choppier than ever. This is what the Federal Reserve does, it fumbles the ball time and time again. Quite frankly, the Federal Reserve will wait too long to loosen monetary policy, as they typically do. It’s almost impossible that we do not head into a recession, so it’ll be interesting to see how long it takes for them to change their attitude, but right now it looks like the simplest explanation to this chart is that we have come too far, too fast.”

On the day gold closed up $7.40 at $2047.10, and silver closed up $0.14 at $25.07.

On Thursday the price of gold moved between $2042.00 and $2032.00, settling mid-range, as traders sold the rallies and bought the dips going into the weekend. I think the smarties do not know exactly what to make of both the gold and silver trade this year.

Year over year gold is higher by 13% and silver is higher by 10%, but these percentages are misleading. Because the price of both metals has been all over the street. Sentiment has moved from highly bearish to higher bullish as traders tried to second guess Fed interest rate policy. And frankly we are probably in for another year of confusion. So, keep your seatbelts buckled and do not be swayed by the tide of changing sentiment.

The short-term price of both gold and silver should be of interest only to the highly leveraged paper trade. For the rest of us mortals, this type of leverage should be avoided as we concentrate on the bigger picture and longer time frame. How much do you think gold or silver will bel in a decade? Of course, this is strictly speculation but if the past is any indication, it’s not a bad bet to say both metals will be higher in value. Perhaps considerably higher depending on how this government sorts out its debt problem.

FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Look Stretched – “Technical Analysis – Gold markets have dropped a bit during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours, but quite frankly it doesn’t look like we are ready to fall apart just yet. We are overextended, and that’s probably something that we need to pay close attention to as well. The area right around the $2050 level continues to be significant resistance, just as it had been multiple times in the past. This is a major resistance barrier, and at this point it’s probably worth noting that the Relative Strength Index indicator is now in the overbought condition, suggesting that perhaps a pullback is imminent. That being said, it doesn’t necessarily mean that gold is going to suddenly be something that you should be shorting, just that if you are already long in this market, you may want to tighten your stop losses. Remember, markets don’t go straight up in the air forever, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we need to take a bit of a breather. Given enough time, I do think that we could break out to the upside, especially if the Federal Reserve starts to sound a bit more dovish, which is something that a lot of people were trying to front run. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility, and therefore you will have to pay close attention to the bond market in the United States, and of course speakers from central banks. I don’t think at this point in time it’s very easy to short this market, but I do think that the pullback could offer a nice buying opportunity, especially if we drop anywhere near the $2000 level. While that would be $40 below where I see the market trading at the moment, it is still but a small blip on the radar considering that we launched this move from just above the $1800 level. Be cautious with your position size but recognize that a short-term pullback should end up being buying opportunities in what is a very bullish market that simply needs to take some type of break from the relentless buying pressure.”

On the day gold closed down $9.00 at $2038.10, and silver closed up $0.22 at $25.29.

On Friday the price of gold moved to daily highs ($2070.00) in the early trade, again helping the technical picture and increasing bullish sentiment. It appears this market has gotten ahead of itself, but it is becoming difficult to make the usual argument – that higher interest rates will blunt short term gains in the price of gold. The logical view is that interest rates are trending lower creating more interest in the metals. But relatively speaking interest rates are still high and may not be moving lower anytime soon. This may have created an interesting wrinkle in today’s trade. It does not feel as heavy – so perhaps there is something at work which suggests a change in the trading wind. A change which might further encourage bullish sentiment.

Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold firmer, traders brace for cues from Fed’s Powell – “Gold firmed on Friday en route to a third consecutive weekly gain on bets that U.S. interest rates could soon be cut, but investors awaited further confirmation from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. “Gold will pull back if there is a hawkish push back. But, it is certainly within the realm of possibility that gold re-tests record highs.” Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he believes U.S. inflation is “on track” to reaching the Fed’s 2% target. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. Traders were currently pricing in a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed. But, “prices may have entered overbought territory and gold has been known to price in monetary policy expectations prematurely over the past two years,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said in a note. Powell will take part in a discussion later in the day, traders will watch out for his opinion on the recent shift in rate expectations. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields slipped and the dollar (.DXY) marked its weakest month in a year in November.”

On the day gold closed up $32.90 at $2071.00, and silver closed up $0.21 at $25.50.

Platinum closed up $0.80 at $932.00, and palladium closed down $9.10 at $1000.00.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in March futures above solid resistance at $2,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,069.70 and then at this week’s high of $2,072.70. First support is seen at $2,050.00 and then at this week’s low of $2,030.00. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March futures prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $26.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $25.87 and then at $26.00. Next support is seen at $25.245 and then at $25.00.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                            

Gold – A Christmas Surprise?

Commentary for Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $7.90 at $1991.40, and silver closed down $0.17 at $23.67. The big story this Thanksgiving week must be the price of gold moving above $2000.00 on Tuesday. This was not a seminal moment; It was expected but the fact that traders sold the rally and today gold finished in the red creates bullish caution. Still, hard asset optimists are enjoying a holiday surprise. Gold is dancing around $2000.00, and the 10-year Treasury rates are fetching 4.5%! Just a few months ago such a cozy relationship would have seemed impossible. Wishing you all a great Thanksgiving! We will be closed this Thursday and Friday, and likely will be accused of eating too much. Blessings! Last Friday gold closed at $1981.60 / silver at $23.81 – on the week gold was up $9.80 and silver was down $0.14. Not exactly earth shattering but encouraging.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. 

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold dipped on the open but recovered into mid-range on the day, as prices moved between $1978.00 and $1966.00. Bullish sentiment from last week seems to have lost its focus. Still, this trading dynamic could soon swing in either direction if the FOMC provides a reasonable solution to the interest rate question.

The technical picture for gold and silver seems to be turning in the neutral direction. Which provides time for this market to settle. This may encourage a unique kind of “back and forth” pricing but not necessarily a typically quiet market. Anything between $1980.00 and $2000.00 is fair game these days. A relatively tight, higher end drift which is supported technically at the lower end and will likely see profit taking rounds above $2000.00. This picture is not fixed however – if the Fed turns hawkish the lower end will be tested. Gold will likely remain capped above $2000.00 as long as the possibility of even higher interest rates remains a Fed option.

Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold loses footing as focus turns to Fed minutes – “Gold prices declined on Monday weighed down by an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields, with investors awaiting minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting for cues on the central bank’s interest rate path. Spot gold was down 0.7% to $1,966.39 per ounce as of 1432 GMT (0932 ET), after rising as high as $1,993.29 on Friday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.8% to $1,968.40. “Technically we’ve seen gold hit resistance and is back to range bound trading with somewhat higher rates as a catalyst here,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. The Fed was going to maintain its narrative that monetary policy will depend on inflation and that it will keep rates elevated for as long as necessary. The minutes of the Fed meeting will be released on Tuesday. Last week’s data reignited hopes that the Fed could begin easing monetary conditions sooner than expected after a slowing jobs market and a weaker-than-expected consumer inflation report. Lower interest rates exert downward pressure on the dollar and bond yields, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Precious metals bulls have lost momentum and need fresh, fundamental impetus. Rising U.S. Treasury yields are trumping a lower U.S. dollar and higher crude oil prices to keep gold and silver buyers skittish (Kitco Metals). The dollar slipped 0.3% to a more than 2-1/2-month low against a basket of its rivals, limiting gold’s losses today.”

On the day gold closed down $3.90 at $1977.70, and silver closed down $0.23 at $23.58.

On Tuesday the bulls were offered a Christmas surprise as the price of gold surged, moving above the vaulted $2000.00 mark. Dollar weakness has been providing underlying strength to the bulls for a week as the Dollar Index moved from 104.5 (last Thursday) through 103.4 (today). Surprisingly the Fed’s latest minutes released this afternoon contained no fresh information. (CNBC) “The summary of the meeting, held Oct. 31-Nov. 1, showed that Federal Open Market Committee members still worry that inflation could be stubborn or move higher, and that more may need to be done.” Which should raise eyebrows, because if the Fed is going to remain hawkish, why are interest rates going down and the price of gold moving higher?

Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold marches ahead to the beat of a weaker US dollar – “Gold prices climbed over key $2,000 an ounce ceiling on Tuesday, buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve has concluded interest rate hikes, pressuring the dollar, while investors awaited minutes from the U.S. central bank’s latest meeting for further policy cues. Spot gold gained 1.5% to $2,006.37 per ounce, as of 9:56 a.m. ET (1456 GMT), after earlier hitting $2,007.29, its highest level since Nov. 3. U.S. gold futures gained 1.4% to $2,008.90. “It looks like it’s short covering because of the weaker U.S. dollar and also the fact that it doesn’t look like there’s going to be any more rate interest rate hikes here coming up on the horizon, so that’s bullish for gold,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The dollar fell to more than a 2-1/2-month low, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Meanwhile, the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered near two-month lows touched last week. The minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting are due at 1900 GMT, which could give further clarity on the central bank’s interest rate path. “After the minutes come out this afternoon, if there’s anything about a pause on rate hikes, you could see (gold) steadily above $2,000” Haberkorn added. Signs of slowing inflation in the U.S. have boosted expectations that the Fed has curbed rate hikes. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. “Now that concerns about the conflict in the Middle East have abated noticeably, the U.S. interest rate outlook has regained the upper hand for gold,” Commerzbank said in a note. Spot silver rose 2.4% to $23.96 per ounce, platinum gained 1.7% to $933.76, and palladium was up 0.4% to $1,081.99. The global silver market faces a third consecutive year of supply deficit in 2023, the Silver Institute said last week.”

On the day gold closed up $21.60 at $1999.30, and silver closed up $0.26 at $23.84.

On Wednesday gold’s momentum cooled as pricing moved between $2002.00 and $1990.00. This lack of follow-through from yesterday’s higher prices makes sense for three reasons. First, trading during the Thanksgiving holiday is typically thin, this is a big travel week, and folks are already on their way. Second, the latest FOMC news reversed dollar direction on the short-term. And third, crude oil is down 20% from September highs. (Reuters) – “The dollar index rose on Wednesday, bouncing back from a 2-1/2 month low after economic data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week.”

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold hovers near $2,000 as Fed pause bets lend support – “Gold prices hovered near the key $2,000 level on Wednesday, as expectations of an end to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle kept the dollar and U.S. bond yields subdued. “The macroeconomic backdrop is turning supportive (for gold) as moderating inflation in the U.S. raises prospects for the end of the U.S. interest rate hiking cycle. The decline in US yields and the US dollar are increasing the investment appeal for gold,” wrote analysts at ANZ in a note. Fed officials agreed at their last policy meeting that they would proceed “carefully” and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed. Markets are confident there won’t be another rate hike and are currently pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by May, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. The dollar rose 0.1% against its rivals but held near a more than 2-1/2-month low touched on Tuesday. Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields ticked lower. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for other currency holders. “Price dips are probably a good buying opportunity considering at some point the Fed will cut interest rates,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, forecasting the gold price would increase to target around $2,150 by end-2024.”

On the day gold closed down $7.90 at $1991.40, and silver closed down $0.17 at $23.67.

Platinum closed down $15.40 at $924.60, and palladium closed down $38.90 at $1054.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at the October high of $2,019.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,935.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,009.80 and then at $2,019.70. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $1,979.90 and then at this week’s low of $1,967.20. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $21.925. First resistance is seen at the November high of $24.22 and then at $24.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $23.30 and then at $23.00.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                                 

Gold – The Inflation Question

Commentary for Friday, Nov 17, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $2.30 at $1981.60, and silver closed down $0.08 at $23.81. Even in the midst of confusion this has been interesting and perhaps a pivotal week for gold. Consider the pricing action on Tuesday of this week as inflation numbers softened. Observers claim that the Fed should be satisfied as inflation moves lower. At the same time many believe the FOMC will keep rates at these elevated levels until the Fed is sure they have accomplished their goal. When analysts first visited this “higher for longer scenario” they found it lacking. Now they are suggesting that their first assessment was incorrect and weaker inflation numbers support this change in the wind. These “back and forth” changes could be transitory – so continued caution is a good idea. This week’s $1980.00 bullish surge could turn into a $1880.00 “wet blanket” by the middle of next year. Last Friday gold closed at $1964.20 / silver at $22.83 – on the week gold was up $17.40 and silver was up $0.98.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. 

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold held steady on the open but quickly moved toward highs on the day ($1946.00) providing needed support for bullish sentiment. Whether this move to the upside is bargain hunting or short covering is an open question, it could be a transitory anomaly.

In my opinion this market has the right to be sagely worried about higher inflation and higher interest rates. Still, the pudding will soon be tasted as the last FOMC meeting of this year will be held Dec 12^th and 13^th. Believe it or not, even this far into the unwinding process, this outcome remains a mystery. Obviously, if they raise interest rates gold may remain defensive.

But the consensus is that they will “pause”. Whether this “rest” will help or hurt the bullish scenario will be confirmed in the first quarter of 2024. Their all-important action will answer the question as to whether the Fed will throw in the interest rate towel and live with higher interest rates. Or will they regain hawkish momentum in an effort to force lower inflation?

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold little changed as traders strap in for US inflation data – “Gold prices held steady on Monday as investors looked towards key U.S. inflation data due this week that could throw some light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance. U.S. consumer prices index (CPI) data will be released on Tuesday. According to a Reuters poll, core U.S. CPI month-over-month is expected to have risen 0.3% in October, with a year-over-year increase of 4.1%. Traders will also scan the U.S. producer price index data due on Wednesday. If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation, gold will likely pull back as that would raise the possibility of another rate hike, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “But, if data comes in line, gold will trade north of $1,950.” Although gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates dull non-yielding bullion’s appeal. The market is currently pricing in an 86% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Bullion dipped nearly 3% last week as safe-haven demand driven by the conflict in the Middle East eased, while Fed officials said they “are not confident” that rates are yet high enough to end the battle with inflation. Goldman Sachs said in a note, “Going forward, in the short-term the investor appetite to add length will rely on the extent of (geopolitical) escalation but (gold) will face headwinds from elevated U.S. real rates”. “Tactically, we would view a potential selloff in gold as a buying opportunity as we see an environment with elevated risk channels ahead playing into gold’s hedge qualities.”

On the day gold closed up $12.90 at $1945.50, and silver closed up $0.08 at $22.30.

On Tuesday the price of gold rallied ($1970.00) as inflation eased more than expected in October creating a weaker Dollar Index which lost a full point in early trading. This “easing” of inflation should be taken with a grain of salt. The analysts are talking about small changes, October came in at 3.2% versus a gain of 3.7% in September.

But this is enough to get everyone’s attention and suggests the current interest rates may be high enough to tame the inflation dragon. It is not like the Fed has been sitting on its hands, a year ago the Fed Funds Rate was 4% and currently it varies between 5.25% and 5.5%.

This rapid increase created anxiety in the financial markets because during the rise the Fed remained hawkish. But analysts hope that today’s 0.5% drop in inflation may help the Fed turn to the dovish side. An obvious plus for the gold bulls. How seriously everyone will take this insight might be gauged by how long recent gains in gold remain in place.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold moves higher as yields, dollar slip after U.S. inflation data – “Gold prices gained on Tuesday as the dollar and Treasury yields retreated after softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data, which fueled more bets that the Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates. U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October and underlying inflation showed signs of slowing. In the 12 months through October, the CPI climbed 3.2% after rising 3.7% in September. The market is pricing in a 100% chance that the U.S. central bank will leave rates unchanged in December versus 86% before the inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “CPI data came in significantly weaker than expected, which is quite supportive for precious metals. We are expecting a significant deterioration in the data over the course of the fourth quarter, which should weaken dollar and support gold,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. “Over the next six months, we’re looking at gold prices to rally towards $2,100 per ounce.” Boosting bullion’s appeal, the dollar index fell 1% while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than one-month low after the data. Investors will also keep a tab on the U.S. producer price index data due on Wednesday. Commerzbank lowered its price forecast for silver at the end of 2024 to $29 per ounce from $30. But, it added that this would still see silver noticeably outperform gold, attributing it to a positive outlook for industrial demand and ongoing transformation of the economy towards climate neutrality, in which silver plays an important role.”

On the day gold closed up $16.30 at $1961.80, and silver closed up $0.78 at $23.08.

On Wednesday the New York cash price for gold was transitory, moving between $1972.00 and $1956.00, a small bullish disappointment. It is too early to claim that yesterday’s price surge is losing momentum, but today’s “quiet” mood does serve as a warning against too much bullish optimism. Next week is Thanksgiving, and some traders are already on the holiday road. Expect tight price ranges and little drama. The US markets are closed Thursday (Nov 23^rd). We will be closed Thursday and Friday thanking God for his bounty and providence. Cheers!

Reuters (Anushree Mukherjee) – Gold eases as firm dollar counters bets on peak US rates – “Gold eased on Wednesday as the dollar ticked up, while expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be done with its interest rate hikes capped bullion’s losses. Denting bullion’s appeal, the dollar index was up 0.4%, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after a revision of retail sales data showed strong gains in September. Bullion gained over 1% in the previous session after data showed that U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October. U.S. producer prices fell by the most in 3-1/2 years in October, the latest indication of subsiding inflation pressures. “The results from CPI and PPI are positive and it continues to support gold prices with the expectation that inflation will continue to pull back adding to the expectation that the Fed is done raising interest rates,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The market is pricing in a 100% chance that the U.S. central bank will leave rates unchanged in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. While gold is considered an inflation hedge, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion’s appeal. “With yields backing up gold is lower after the initial spike up. I think the outlook will remain positive for (gold) assets but the moves will be more measured,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. Investors also looked at data that showed that U.S. retail sales fell in October, though by less than expected, after months of strong gains, pointing to slowing demand that could further strengthen expectations that the Fed is done hiking interest rates.”

On the day gold closed down $1.70 at $1960.10, and silver closed up $0.41 at $23.49.

On Thursday the price of gold moved from $1965.00 though $1985.00 before settling at the upper end of the day’s pricing. While yesterday’s rather flat close took away from Tuesday’s charge to the upside, today’s higher close has once again encouraged the bulls.

This latest bit of good news rekindles, to some degree, the notion that even higher prices for gold may become a reality sooner than later. This optimistic bullish view is based on two assumptions. The first is that the Fed’s higher interest rate program has begun to tamp down real inflation rates. The second, and probably the more important of the two, is that this week’s small decline will be just the beginning of a steady trend towards lower and more manageable rates.

This second assumption falls into the “too much too soon” category because it puts the cart before horse. It fails to address the question of how this country is going to pay back all the fiat money created during the tough days of the pandemic.

Reuters (Anushree Mukherjee) – Gold climbs over 1% as U.S. jobless claims data cement Fed pause bets – “Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields dipped after U.S. weekly jobless claims increased more than expected, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hiking cycle. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, which could help the Fed’s fight against inflation. The data confirms that the U.S. economy is slowing down a little bit, giving gold and silver bulls confidence that the Fed is not going to raise interest rates again, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Data on Wednesday showed U.S. producer prices fell the most in 3-1/2 years in October, while another set of data on Tuesday highlighted that U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October. The market is pricing in around a 100% chance that the U.S. central bank will leave rates unchanged in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. While gold is considered an inflation hedge, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion’s appeal. Boosting gold’s allure, the dollar index fell 0.3%, hovering around to a more than two-month low hit in the previous session, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also slipped. “The charts have turned more friendly for gold. If there is a geopolitical development, it could help gold but if we get strong U.S. data, then it would raise the notion of one more (rate) hike and pressure the metals market.”

On the day gold closed up $23.80 at $1983.90, and silver closed up $0.40 at $23.89.

On Friday gold finished the week on a quiet note, closing almost unchanged on the day. Three of the five days this week gold moved higher creating bullish buzz on the notion that because inflation is cooling, the Fed will turn dovish. Whether that is true or not remains to be seen. Still, higher gold prices create attention, and the $1940.00 short term bottom is solid.

Still this week’s good bullish news is not pie in the sky speculation. Some technical insiders believe the dollar has peaked and will soon correct lower. The holiday season is typically good for the jewelry trade. And the desperate war in the Ukraine supports safe haven demand.

We are closed two days next week (23^rd and 24^th) for Thanksgiving. Have a blessed day!          

FXStreet (Eren Sengezer) – Gold Price Weekly Forecast: Technical outlook turns bullish heading into Thanksgiving Week – “Gold gathered bullish momentum and gained more than 2.5% this week as the US Dollar (USD) declined alongside the US Treasury bond yields. Next week’s economic docket will not offer any significant macroeconomic events and participants could watch XAU/USD’s technicals for trading opportunities. In the absence of high-tier data releases, Gold managed to stage a technical upside correction on Monday as sellers booked their profits after XAU/USD tested the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below $1,940. On Tuesday, Gold gathered bullish momentum and advanced beyond $1,970. Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.2% on a yearly basis in October from 3.7% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 4% in the same period, down slightly from the 4.1% increase recorded in September. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell more than 3% after soft inflation data and broke below 4.5%, while the USD came under strong selling pressure. In turn, XAU/USD gained more than 1% on the day. Retail Sales in the US declined 0.1% on a monthly basis in October, the US Census Bureau reported on Wednesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for a 0.3% contraction and helped the USD stabilize following the previous day’s sharp decline. Thursday’s data, however, showed that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits climbed to 231,000 in the week ending November 11 from 218,000 and didn’t allow the currency to extend its recovery. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that Industrial Production contracted by 0.6% on a monthly basis in October. After Wednesday’s choppy action, Gold regained its traction and advanced toward $1,980. As US Treasury yields continued to stretch lower on the last trading day of the week, Gold preserved its bullish momentum and advanced to its highest level in over a week above $1,990. Reuters reported that Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told a US senator that the process of balance sheet wind-down faces no imminent end. “Under plausible assumptions, the size of the balance sheet could decline considerably further before reserves reach the level consistent with the ample reserves operating framework,” Jefferson wrote in response to Republican Senator Rick Scott, who posed a series of questions regarding the central bank’s balance sheet. Meanwhile, demand-side dynamics also provided a boost to gold prices this week. “Indian buyers brushed off record high local prices this week making gold purchases during the Diwali festival week in the country, while China premiums remained buoyant after the top-buyer continued to accumulate gold holdings,” Reuters reported.”

On the day gold closed down $2.30 at $1981.60, and silver closed down $0.08 at $23.81.

Platinum closed down $2.40 at $894.70, and palladium closed up $9.30 at $1056.50.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,996.40 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,983.90 and then at $1,975.00. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $24.22 and then at $24.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $23.805 and then at Thursday’s low of $23.35.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold – Rising Bearish Sentiment  

Commentary for Thursday, Nov 9, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $12.70 at $1964.20, and silver closed up $0.18 at $22.83. Another week of trouble for the bulls as gold’s technical picture falters, crude oil weakens, and Fed hawkishness seems resolute. (Reuters) – “Oil prices slid over 2% on Wednesday to their lowest in more than three months on concerns over waning demand in the U.S. and China.  “The market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance,” ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note to clients, referring to crude supply conditions.” It is interesting that at the same time, today’s New York cash market surged to highs on the day ($1964.20). My sense is that gold has become oversold, traders covered, creating a short covering rally. But this last-minute pop to the upside may instead suggest fresh escalation in the Middle East, which has prompted safe haven buying. Rising bearish sentiment has slowed our trading volume – so caution is warranted. We will be closed tomorrow (Friday) for Veterans Day. USPS & Banks are open. Last Friday gold closed at $1991.50 / silver at $23.20 – on the week gold was down $32.73 and silver was off $0.37.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. 

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold continued to settle, moving from highs on the day ($1988.00) to lows on the day ($1979.00). A typical trade these days, with a negative bias as the bulls lose steam and yet the still positive technical picture constrains the bears.

This week we will hear from a host of important Fed insiders including Chief Powell himself on Thursday. So, there could yet be some fireworks which may provide support to the flagging bullish sentiment. And ETF holdings continue lackluster, joining this bearish party.

Still, a confused Middle East picture, and the possibility of increased hostility may refresh safe haven bullion demand. The holiday season may also help, suggesting an increase in gold jewelry sales and gift giving in the US. At the same time jewelers in India are optimistic even though gold prices have gained 20% since the last Diwali.

At the same time, investors are less optimistic, turning cautious. Gold struggles because its last official short-term bottom was in October, around $1825.00.

Today’s physical investor is somewhere between optimistic and pessimistic. That weird kind of middle ground that slows the action somewhat, but there is not enough conviction in either group to establish a diffident trend. So, for now the jury is out as to whether gold is settling at the upper end of that range around $1950.00 or insiders expect a test of the most recent lows.

FXEmpire (Vladimir Zernov) – Gold, Silver, Platinum Forecasts – Gold Pulls Back As Treasury Yields Rebound – Silver and platinum are also moving lower as traders focus on rising yields. “Gold pulls back as traders focus on the rebound in Treasury yields. It looks that gold needs additional positive catalysts to settle above the $2000 level. From the technical point of view, gold remains stuck near the support at $1975 – $1985. A move below $1975 will push gold towards the support at $1940 – $1950. Silver is moving lower as traders wait for additional catalysts that could push it out of the current trading range. In case silver manages to settle above the resistance at $23.40 – $23.60, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the $25.00 – $25.30 range. Platinum is losing ground amid a broad pullback in precious metals markets. Platinum did not manage to settle above the resistance at $925 – $935. In case platinum moves below the 50 MA at $910, it will head towards the support at $880 – $890.”

On the day gold closed down $9.90 at $1981.60, and silver closed down $0.05 at $23.15.

On Tuesday the price of gold began moving lower in the overnight Hong Kong and London markets, perhaps reflecting a disappointing miss in China’s economic picture. But its weakness in the US cash market confirms my suspicions that gold has lost its momentum and will look to consolidate at lower levels. The pricing spread on the day moved between $1967.00 and $1956.00 as gold settled solidly in the red by the close. There is enough confusion in the world to cushion this weakness in the short term. The most recent October low ($1850.00) also held up in early September. This technical plus supports the bullish contention that if $1850.00 is actually tested, the price of gold at that time would present an oversold market and traders would be looking for a significant short covering rally.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold falls 1% as dollar firms, traders brace for Fed speeches – “Gold fell 1% to a two-week low on Tuesday on a firmer dollar, with traders positioning for interest rate cues from a host of Federal Reserve speakers this week. “Gold prices appear to be heading lower after a failure to push above the $2,000 an ounce key resistance, (that) prompted some profit taking, (and) appears to be being driven by a stronger US dollar which is higher across the board,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. The dollar index rose 0.4%, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Gold gained more than 7% in October as the conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. The gold market is waiting for further dovish signals from the U.S. central bank before the rally can continue, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, market analyst at Kinesis Money. Investors now await a host of speeches from Fed officials this week, with the spotlight on Chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. Investors see a 90% chance of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in its December meeting, and a 75% chance of introducing a cut as early as June next year, according to CME FedWatch tool. However, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the central bank likely has more work ahead of it to control inflation. “If we see some sort of tepid demand (in the Treasury auctions this week) … that could put upward pressure on yields again and put some downside pressure on gold,” said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com. Spot silver fell 2.2% to $22.52 per ounce and platinum eased 1.2% to $894.73. Palladium slipped 1.2% to $1,093.27 and was down 39% for the year so far. “Substitution from palladium to platinum and more electric vehicles being sold will likely push the metal into a structural surplus next year,” UBS said in a note, adding it sees prices targeting $1,050 per ounce in the second half of 2024.”

On the day gold closed down $14.80 at $1966.80, and silver closed down $0.64 at $22.51.

On Wednesday the New York cash market for gold quickly moved to daily lows around $1950.00 helped by a deteriorating technical picture and still struggling against a rising dollar. And you will have to look hard for optimistic bullish commentary as even the gold ETFs look elsewhere for hedging options. Think about our relative economic territory and you will have valuable insight into the nature of the gold trade. Just 6 months ago everyone was bullish and talking about higher prices for gold. Today, the opposite is true, most everyone is bearish and talking about lower prices for gold. The point I’m trying to make is that sentiment and therefore commentary for any commodity is volatile and subject to quick changes in the wind.

Does it create “happiness” when gold sells off from $2050.00 and dips to recent lows of $1850.00? Of course not, but it does slow down the momentum trade. Which helps us view pricing realistically and with a view as to value. It’s also a good idea to approach this notion with what Davy Crockett called Kentucky windage – but it’s not just guesswork.

This approach allows us to consider choices which might be overlooked when highly negative sentiment prevails, and the bullish scenario is downbeat.

Can you benefit when gold commentary turns overly bearish? It depends on your inclination, which for the most part is already wired into your thinking. If you are pessimistic (which is not necessarily a bad thing) you will assume the worst. If optimistic or a student of world history, you will look for opportunities.

I believe the technical floor ($1850.00) may hold up surprisingly well. This is no revelation as veteran buyers believe that gold will make all-time highs in the next decade. Price averaging and bargain hunting makes good sense to them in a down market.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold lacks momentum as traders seek more Fed cues – “Gold prices retreated for a third straight session on Wednesday as investors looked for fresh cues on the U.S. central bank’s interest rate stance, while palladium hit a five-year low. The dollar index ticked 0.1% higher, making greenback-priced metals less alluring for other currency holders. “Traders will start looking at economic data and potential actions from the U.S. central bank. Gold will react based on whatever the data is showing,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. “It is hard to see a catalyst for further upside in gold without a notable deterioration in the data.” A slew of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday maintained a balanced tone on the central bank’s next decision, but noted they would focus on more economic data and impact of higher long-term bond yields. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 2:00 p.m. ET on Thursday. Gold is sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. “The risk premium gold gained from the Israel-Hamas war is eroding. If you see an escalation in the conflict, then gold can get some momentum behind it,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago. Bullion gained over 7% in October as the conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. Elsewhere, palladium hit its lowest levels since 2018 at $1,007.73 earlier in the session and was down 1.2% at $1,042.72. Platinum eased 2.2% to $871.92. In the palladium market, “demand is evaporating at pretty fast pace led by smaller production of internal combustion engines and it is also being substituted with platinum in auto catalysts components,” Ghali added. Both metals are used in emissions-controlling devices in cars.”

On the day gold closed down $15.30 at $1951.50, and silver closed up $0.14 at $22.65.

On Thursday weakness in the price of gold has the bulls hiding under the bed. This has created one of those typical anomalies encountered in a confused market. The public is not standing in line to buy, and at the same time they are not selling their gold or silver bullion.

That being said, today gold surged higher in the domestic market despite the current downtrend reminding everyone that there are more than a few unanswered questions as to our current monetary policy. This confusion takes continued patience. The last FOMC confab for this year will be on December 12th and 13th – and will offer a Summary of Economic Projections. Santa Clause will be warning investors to make sure their seat belts are fastened!

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold holds some gains after Fed’s Powell speaks; palladium sinks – “Gold held on to some gains on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the need for higher interest rates to rein in inflation, while auto-catalyst palladium fell below the $1,000 an ounce level for the first time since 2018. Powell said Fed officials “are not confident” that interest rates are yet high enough to finish the battle with inflation, sending the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher. “Powell’s comments are less dovish than hoped which has prevented a further advance in gold, though it has broken a three-day losing streak,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

“Gold seems likely to stay in a range under $2,000 as geopolitics is still exercising an outsized influence.” Bullion has fallen over $40 after hitting $2,000 last week when escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven inflows. Silver was up 0.4% to $22.6. “Gold could move above $2,100 in the second quarter of 2024 and the catalyst will be the Fed needing to start cutting rates,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Traders pushed out bets on the Fed’s likely first interest-rate cut to June of next year from May earlier. Lower interest rates boost zero-yield bullion’s appeal. Palladium slipped 5.5% to $992.69, hitting its lowest level since 2018. “Large short positions have exacerbated the downside risk for palladium,” Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper said.

“In the near term, supply curtailments have not materialized, and demand has been weaker than expected following the UAW strike action.” Platinum fell 0.8% to $859.49.”

On the day gold closed up $12.70 at $1964.20, and silver closed up $0.18 at $22.83.

Platinum closed down $8.80 at $856.60, and palladium closed down $51.30 at $1005.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures prices hit a three-week low early on today. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $1,977.50 and then at $1,985.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,948.20 and then at $1,935.00. December silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are starting to trend lower on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $23.88. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $20.85. First resistance is seen at $23.25 and then at $23.50. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.375 and then at $22.00.”

We are closed Friday – Veterans Day and thank veterans for their service with a snappy salute. Our staff have served in the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines. We understand what a snappy salute looks like and why it’s important to those who serve.  

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.

Gold – The Fed Pause?

Commentary for Friday, Nov 3, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $5.90 at $1991.50, and silver closed up $0.45 at $23.20. Now that the Fed has “paused” its interest rate program, the question becomes what has the investor learned from this latest insight? Is this good or bad for the bullish scenario? Analysts can make a case for either outcome. If the Fed “paused” because they are worried about a weaker US labor market it would suggest the end of higher interest rates. A plus for the bullish scenario. If they “paused” with the hawkish intention of raising rates in early 2024 it would be another reason to consider a bearish pricing scenario for gold. The hopeful speculation preceding this latest Fed decision has fizzled because Wall Street and Main Street are no better informed. The optimist might suggest we are no worse off for the wear, and perhaps that works. Still, the longer this confusion continues the more dangerous the financial waters. Last Friday gold closed at $1988.60 / silver at $22.77 – on the week gold was higher by $2.90 and silver was higher by $0.43. The metals continue to tread water.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.  

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the pricing spread on the day was $1990.00 through $2003.00 settling mildly in the green for the day. Typical of recent trading action and suggestive that while gold continues to fight for the higher end of its current price range it may lack bullish conviction. If interest rates continue higher, it may cap price gains and introduce downside risk.

Still, our economy is stronger than most expected, giving the Fed rate options in pursuing its primary objective – controlling inflation. But as academics make a strong case that present rates are slowing the economy the Fed is doing its job by turning cautious.

The Federal Reserve meets this week, Tuesday, and Wednesday so the question as to what they will do with interest rates in the short term will soon be answered. Still, this process is not as simple, requiring a kind of balancing act. The FOMC is in a good position to influence the outcome, one way or the other because Chief Powell controls the public rhetoric.

If the Fed does not raise interest rates, and at the same time the Chief restates his hawkish commentary, the government creates “wait and see” time. A valuable commodity to those who believe that inflation is moving lower. Which presupposes our present mess will “fix” itself. How the government deals with its massive debt problem will have to wait for another day.

Our trading volumes were steady and did not favor either the bullish or bearish scenario.

Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) – Wall Street analysts cautiously optimistic on gold, while retail investors remain firmly bullish – Gold held onto its recent gains this week, supported by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, while high bond yields continue to deliver headwinds for the precious metal. The yellow metal also went on another run heading into the weekend, with spot gold once again trading above $2,000 per ounce as traders look to get into long positions in case the geopolitical situation deteriorates while markets are closed. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey sees retail investors still bullish on the precious metal for the week ending Nov. 3 despite the recent price runup, while a majority of market analysts are also bullish but with a significant minority expecting either pullback or consolidation next week. “I’m going to go neutral for the survey this week,” said Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “The reason is because I think that gold could actually have a big move; I’m just not sure which direction.” Cieszynski said he expects another hawkish hold at the Fed meeting next week. “I don’t think they’re in a position to start saying they’re done raising interest rates,” he said. “I think they’ll hold and leave the door open to another rate hike in December because they forecast one more. I think today’s inflation number was benign enough that they don’t need to go raising rates again, but at the same time, it wasn’t dropping off fast enough for them to say we’re done.” He added that a hawkish hold would likely mean that the run-up in treasury yields is just about done. “That actually would be bullish for gold, or if nothing else, not bearish,” he said. “It could perhaps stop gold from going down too much. On the other hand, it probably wouldn’t be enough to really push it up either because Treasury yields are still pretty high. “Cieszynski said that the other side of the equation is the uncertainty about what’s going to happen in the Middle East. “The question with that is how long before hostilities break out again,” he said. “If you don’t have increased hostilities, that’s actually bearish for gold. And on the other hand, if there are hostilities, is that bullish for gold? Because it’s already probably priced in, considering gold rallied a hundred bucks.” “The Fed side would be flat to up a little bit. The war side would be flat to the downside. And so that leaves me in the middle.” Michael Moor, creator of Moor Analytics, said the technical picture remains bullish, even if markets see a moderate pullback. “I warned on 10/6 of strength and we left a moderate bullish reversal below—we have traded $164.0 higher from the 18452 10/6 close,” he said. “The trade above 19409 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) projects this upward $22 minimum, $130 (+) maximum – we have attained $68.3 so far.  Decent trade below 19871-62 (+3 tics per/hour starting at 5:00am) will project this downward $15 minimum, $57 (+) maximum; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, resume bullishness and look for more of the macro projection higher.” This week, 11 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Six experts, or 54%, expected to see higher gold prices next week, while three analysts, or 27%, predicted a price drop, and two others, or 18%, were neutral on gold for the coming week. Meanwhile, 602 votes were cast in the online polls. Of these, 395 retail investors, or 66%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 126, or 21%, expected it would be lower, while 81 respondents, or 13%, were neutral about the near-term prospects for the precious metal.”

On the day gold closed up $7.60 at $1996.20, and silver closed up $0.51 at $23.28.

On Tuesday the price of gold continued higher for the second day reaching $2008.00 before reversing direction and settling in the red for the day. I’m a bit surprised that gold did not do better considering tensions in the Middle East and the likelihood that the Fed will not raise interest rates this week. Because this “unwinding process” is not complete uncertainty comes in and out of focus quickly – even for informed insiders. Will we have a “soft landing” or recession? How long will the “higher for longer” interest rate theory be popular? The war in Gaza could end for humanitarian reasons and reduce safe haven demand for the metals.

Pricing remains an open-ended question in the short to middle term. Considering the long term makes more sense in the physical market. Neither the Democrats nor Republicans will reduce spending so our debt problem will continue to grow. And inflation will continue in one form or another as the US Mint prints fiat paper money in staggering amounts.

Of course, all of this frustrates the fiscally conservative. It would not surprise me if the price of gold was two or three times its current price in a decade. And you might want to consider taking the “over” on this bet if something seriously goes wrong.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Mideast conflict sets up safe-haven gold for best month since November – “Gold inched up on Tuesday and was set for its best month since November as the Israel-Hamas war sparked safe-haven flows, while focus shifted to this week’s U.S. central bank policy meeting. Spot gold was at its lowest in seven months at $1,809.50 on Oct. 6, a day before Hamas’ attack on Israel. It is now on track for an 8% rise in October as investors bolted for safety amid the ensuing crisis. “We still have a positive bias in gold with the continuation of safe-have demand given the Middle East war,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Market focus this week is also on the U.S. Treasury’s refunding announcement and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by the U.S. monthly jobs report Friday. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold at this meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “A stronger jobs market could potentially positively impact yields and negatively impact gold, while a weaker jobs market raises potential for a less hawkish or dovish Fed and then the pendulum would swing the other direction,” Meger added. On the physical front, the World Gold Council (WGC) said central banks’ gold buying remained strong in third quarter of 2023, but it fell short of the third quarter 2022 record. “Fragile consumer electronics demand continued to undermine volumes of gold used in technology,” the WGC added.”

On the day gold closed down $11.00 at $1985.20, and silver closed down $0.44 at $22.84.

On Wednesday gold was defensive waiting for the latest insight into the still evolving interest rate puzzle. Gold yawned as the FOMC left interest rates unchanged because this was widely expected, and therefore already figured into the pricing model.

Whether Chief Powell’s latest revelation and his voiced reasoning is a big plus or big minus for gold between now and the first quarter of next year is still an open question. And the answer to this question depends on whether this “pause” signals the end of a hawkish Fed or reinforces the popular “higher for longer” scenario.

The truth is that traders still have not gained much insight into what Washington has in mind. And the reason behind this quandary? The Fed is still experimenting with its preferred economic outcome – the so-called “soft landing”. As the months drag on it has become apparent that investors will need the patience of a Saint before discovering an answer to this quandary.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold dips as Fed’s Powell stays hawkish after holding rates – “Gold prices fell on Wednesday after the U.S. central bank announced its widely expected decision to leave interest rates unchanged and Chair Jerome Powell said the question of rate cuts is not on their radar right now. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but left the door open to a further increase in borrowing costs in a policy statement that acknowledged the U.S. economy’s surprising strength but also nodded to tighter financial conditions. “While the macro shadows (from ongoing dollar strength, growing expectations of higher-for-longer rates and inflationary pressures easing) persist after the Fed meeting, the geopolitical premium has more than offset them,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. central bank is not thinking about lowering rates right now. This week, gold prices have slightly pulled back after surpassing the key $2,000 level on Friday. Bullion rose over 7% in October, helped by strong safe-haven demand due to growing unrest in the Middle East. After the Fed’s decision, the U.S. dollar held gains while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to two-week lows. Traders added to bets that the central bank is done raising its policy rate and will start cutting rates by June of next year. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. “A combination of eventually lower rates, a waning U.S. dollar, and strong official sector buying should help gold longer term,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Investors also looked to the October non-farm payrolls report due on Friday.”

On the day gold closed down $6.40 at $1978.80, and silver closed down $0.15 at $22.69.

On Thursday the price of gold touched $1990.00 in early trading, but this small rally was sold, and the market dipped to session lows ($1980.00) before settling mildly in the green. It is surprising that gold is not moving much higher – the Dollar Index has lost a full point since Wednesday. My bet is that gold ignored the Fed decision – the FOMC did not raise interest rates, but Powell did equivocate leaving the door open to speculation and uncertainty.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains as US dollar, yields slip on hopes of peak Fed rates – “Gold prices firmed on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields retreated on raised bets that the Federal Reserve may be done raising interest rates, while investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data for further cues. Helping bullion’s appeal, the dollar index slipped, and benchmark U.S. 10-year note yields fell to a near three-week low. Gold is stronger as there are signs of cracks in the U.S. labor market, which probably signals the Fed is backing off completely from rate hikes, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Data showed U.S. weekly jobless claims rose moderately as the labor market continues to show few signs of a significant slowdown. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday as policymakers considered whether financial conditions may be sufficiently tight to control inflation. The market now sees an 85% chance of another Fed pause in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Investors will also monitor the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for further cues on the U.S. central bank’s policy path. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Gold rose over 7% in October and surpassed the key $2,000-per-ounce level last week on safe-haven demand amid growing unrest in the Middle East. “Gold already prices in the geo-political risks. if the war expands, then prices would benefit more,” Haberkorn added. Shares of Johannesburg-based precious metals producer Sibanye Stillwater fell more than 3% after the company said it was considering further changes at its U.S. palladium mines to adjust the operations to metal prices that have dropped faster than anticipated.”

On the day gold closed up $6.80 at $1985.60, and silver closed up $0.06 at $22.75.

On Friday the price of gold opened in typically choppy fashion trading between $1886.00 and $2004.00. On the day it finished mildly in the green, supported by a weaker dollar and a bullish technical picture. Still pricing into holiday season and through next year is dicey at best, unless the Fed throws in the interest rate towel, which is not likely.

Even at these elevated prices the physical market is surprisingly active, premiums for quality bullion products are steady, and while I don’t think there is much buzz in this trade the public is not just kicking the tires.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold advances on Fed pause hopes after weak U.S. jobs data – “Gold prices gained on Friday and hovered around the key $2,000 mark as U.S. dollar and Treasury yields slipped after a weak U.S. job data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in October, while wage inflation cooled, pointing to an easing in labor market conditions. Data showed employers added 150,000 jobs in October, below the 180,000 expected by economists. “If the labor market starts to deteriorate, the Fed will be unable to continue a hawkish path. The data cements the idea of a Fed pause, which is helping gold,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion. Adding to gold’s shine, the dollar index (.DXY) fell 0.8% and benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to three-week lows after the data. Traders are now pricing in an 90% chance that the U.S. central bank will leave rates unchanged in December compared to 80% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader, said. Price action on Friday will tell if gold needs to consolidate a bit or if its full steam ahead, in any case there is no good news for gold bears at the moment. On the physical front, gold dealers in India offered discounts for a fourth consecutive week as consumers shied away from making purchases due to higher domestic prices.”

On the day gold closed up $5.90 at $1991.50, and silver closed up $0.45 at $23.20.

Platinum closed up $14.10 at $936.60, and palladium closed up $17.70 at $1124.40.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $2,050.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,950.00. First resistance is seen at the October high of $2,019.70 and then at the July high of $2,028.60. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,989.30 and then at this week’s low of $1,978.20. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, an uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $24.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $23.25 and then at $23.50. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $22.565 and then at $22.25.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                                                                                                                 

Gold – Possible Outcomes?

Commentary for Friday, October 27, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $1.40 at $1988.60, and silver closed down $0.02 at $22.77. Gold closed quietly at the end of this trading week. With escalating troubles in the Middle East and a positive technical picture I’m surprised that both gold and silver seem to have lost focus. This market consolidation could be typical with higher numbers right around the corner. Or it could be the first signs of an insipid turn which might eventually favor the bears. Still, we are up $115.00 this month and $325.00 this past year so gold continues to do its job of keeping everyone honest. Last Friday gold closed at $1982.50 / silver at $23.35 – on the week gold was up $6.10 and silver was down $0.58.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.  

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold and silver saw mild settling after reaching short term highs last Friday. The technical picture for both metals also support the bullish scenario.

As usual, however, I would approach these numbers with caution. The bullish case here was made by Barron’s. It claimed the hawkish Fed has turned dovish. Trying to figure out the next Fed move is difficult, perhaps impossible. If they do have a specific plan, they are not sharing details, preferring to track inflation and keeping their options open.

The price of gold Friday made a 3.5-month high moving from $1825.00 to $1985.00. I could be wrong, but this looks like a tired bull, running out of steam. The paper market is looking at a fresh and sizable $160.00 profit. It is easier to believe traders will take profits rather than worry about the Fed’s next move. Especially as gold approaches the $2000.00 overhead resistance.

What the Fed might do in the short term is uncertain and transitory. You could even make the case that their interest rate strategy as of now is already factored into the price of gold. It is because of this uncertainty that their short-term revelations may be largely ignored.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold subdued as yields rise, spotlight shifts to US economic data – “Gold prices eased on Monday as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields advanced higher, while investors kept a tab on growing unrest in the Middle East and awaited U.S. economic data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit 5.0%, decreasing the appeal of non-yielding bullion. “Higher yields continue to be a drag on gold prices, but we believe geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty in the Middle East will continue to drive prices higher,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Bullion prices hit their highest since mid-May on Friday and surged about 9% in the past two weeks as investors fluttered into the safety of gold on fears that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider Middle East conflict. Focus is also on the U.S. PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge — U.S. GDP figures for the third quarter, the European Central Bank’s rate decision and global flash PMIs for economic cues. “If inflation data come in higher than expected, it will raise concerns about rising interest rates, to which gold might see a knee-jerk reaction to the downside, but safe-haven demand should begin to kick post that,” Meger added. Mirroring investor sentiment, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), rose 1.77% to 863.24 tons on Friday.”

On the day gold closed down $6.20 at $1976.30, and silver closed down $0.28 at $23.07.

On Tuesday the price of gold was a roller coaster ride in the overnight Hong Kong and London markets, dipping to $1955.00 before eventually reversing direction in the domestic New York trade and moving to daily highs approaching about unchanged on the day. Today’s recovery suggests that traders bought the dip – a plus for the bulls.

This may suggest that yesterday’s “profit taking” admonition is a busted flush. But the price of gold may still be overbought. Granted this is a minority opinion considering the Middle East problem. And an uncertain FOMC relative to interest rates.

FXEMPIRE (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Markets Look a Little Heavy – “Gold markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday, but then gave back the gains to show signs of weakness. We fell pretty drastically but then turned around to show signs of life again. All things being equal, the $2000 level above is a major resistance barrier, and of course a large, round, psychologically significant figure. This is an area that traders have been looking at for some time, and have fallen from multiple times in the past. Because of this, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we pull back a little bit deeper. Whether or not we do so drastically remains to be seen, but it is probably worth noting that the major turnaround in gold had more to do with the geopolitical concerns than anything else. Interest rates are still very high, so it doesn’t necessarily think that the market will be able to continue going higher forever. Furthermore, if we get some type of relaxation on tensions in the Middle East, the market then breaks down rather drastically. In that environment, I suspect that the market could go looking to the 50-Day EMA, followed by the 200-Day EMA.

On the other hand, if we were to turn around and take out the $2000 level handily on a daily close, then the gold market could go much higher. At that point, I think you probably have another $50 that traders will be looking to pick up, and then perhaps breaking out above there. A lot of this comes down to geopolitical noise, so it’s difficult to predict it, but at this point it’s obvious that the market had gotten a little overdone so a little bit of digestion does make a certain amount of sense after a massive run higher that we have seen. That being said, if we get some type of bad headline coming out across the newswire, that can change the attitude of the market almost immediately, and therefore you will have to be very cognizant of headlines and recognize that things can change in an instant.”

On the day gold closed down $1.30 at $1975.00, and silver closed down $0.09 at $22.98.

On Wednesday morning gold continued to consolidate in a range between $1970.00 and $1985.00 and managed to finish slightly in the green for the day. And its technical picture leans toward higher prices. Both factors are a “plus” for the bullish scenario.

Still experts are divided over the conflict between safe haven demand and higher interest rates. A significant change in either of these will change the shorter-term outlook and be reflected in the price of gold. It appears however that its price may be turning flat, which suggests a continuation of the narrow trading channel between $1900.00 and $1950.00.

It all depends on what the Fed does between now and the first quarter of 2024. Still this monetary confusion requires patience. A long consolidation in prices tends to diminish the cash trade across our counter because it’s boring. Something like watching paint dry.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Safe-haven gold gains on MidEast conflict; US data in focus – “Safe-haven gold gained on Wednesday, buoyed by continued conflict in the Middle East, while investors looked forward to key U.S. economic data for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The geopolitical concerns are not going away in the short term, which will continue supporting gold, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Israel’s military intensified its bombing of southern Gaza overnight, amid international calls for a pause in fighting. Limiting bullion’s gains, the dollar index and benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields inched higher. Investor attention turns to U.S. third-quarter GDP figures due on Thursday and the U.S. PCE price index on Friday that could impact the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold at its policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. If the data shows a slowdown, it will give Fed more reason not to raise interest rates, which should be very supportive for gold and see prices back above $2,000, added Haberkorn. U.S. business activity ticked higher in October while output in the euro zone took a surprise turn for the worse, surveys showed on Tuesday, underscoring the diverging path for central bankers in the two regions. On the physical front, China’s gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2023 climbed 7.32% from a year earlier on increasing demand amid economic recovery, the China Gold Association said.”

On the day gold closed up $9.10 at $1984.10, and silver closed down $0.10 at $22.88.

On Thursday the price of gold was generally weaker in the overnight Hong Kong and London markets but recovered somewhat in the domestic trade. And finished the day mildly higher, which is surprising considering the Dollar Index has moved higher by a full point since Tuesday. Today’s pricing spread is also relatively small ($15.00) which suggests that gold is still holding up considering the threat of even higher interest rates.

An improved technical picture and the possibility of no further rate hikes this year favors gold and silver in the short term, and these factors help the bullish scenario.

This week’s strong US economic data encourages Fed hawkishness. A minus for the bulls.

The Middle East does not look solvable at this point and may escalate further. Yet, it is notable that gold is not making new highs on safe haven demand.

A confusing week, which has “insiders” wondering what is around the next corner? New and changing trends fade in and out of this trade. Still, it is a mixed bag of opposing forces.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Mideast risks cushion safe-haven gold despite strong US data – “Gold was little changed on Thursday as steady safe-haven demand fueled by the Middle East conflict helped bullion weather pressure from strong U.S. data that quelled recession fears. The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the third quarter, again defying dire warnings of a recession that lingered since 2022. A separate report from the Labor Department highlighted labor market resilience after data showed the number of people filing new claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 during the week ending Oct. 21 from 200,000 in the prior week. The GDP number and jobless claims numbers “paint the picture of a very strong U.S. economy,” and this supports the narrative that the Fed might need to raise rates more, which is negative for gold, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “I am surprised we are not seeing a bigger move downward in gold. I think there is a realization that geo-political risks are not going away anytime soon.” Keeping a leash on gold, the U.S. dollar rose 0.2%, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Gold has gained 9% over the past two weeks as investors sought refuge from the potential fallout of the Israel-Hamas conflict. But the lingering prospects of higher interest rates have softened any upside in non-yielding bullion. In Europe, the ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected, snapping an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive hikes. Focus shifts to the PCE price index due on Friday for cues on what to expect from the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.”

On the day gold closed up $3.10 at $1987.20, and silver closed down $0.09 at $22.79.

On Friday the trade was a bit more relaxed as gold closed almost unchanged. Still, pricing seems rather subdued in the face of rising inflation according to the latest PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) numbers. Is it not amazing that with all the current confusion in the world the price of gold seems almost “stuck” waiting for the next news headline?

Really, it can’t seem to move forward or back up with certainty, even though the notion of “higher interest rates for a longer period” has been in place for some time and carries the most weight among the hard asset fraternity.

It is at times like these that I look at availability and premium for quality bullion products. Sometimes a change in these is insightful. But premiums and availability are steady and typical. Meaning the major mints are not giving anything away and the physical market remains “steady Eddie”. Not too hot and not too cold, waiting for the next turn in this winding road.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold steady with spotlight on MidEast risks, Fed meet – “Gold prices held steady on Friday, supported by continued safe-haven demand fueled by Middle East tensions, while investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting due next week. “Gold has been consolidating in a very tight range holding nearly all of its recent gains as the market remains concerned about a conflagration in the Middle East,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent trader. Israeli forces carried out their biggest Gaza ground attack in their 20-day-old war with Hamas overnight as Arab nations condemned the bombardment. Safe-haven bullion has gained around 8% or more than $140, since the start of the war on Oct. 7. “If there is an escalation in the conflict, there are prospects of additional safe-haven buying … Gold investors will also be watching the outlook for U.S. Treasury yields,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is due on Oct. 31-Nov. 1, with traders expecting a 98% chance of the U.S. central bank leaving rates unchanged. “In our view the Fed will most likely end its tightening campaign, and this is already priced into the gold market,” Ghali added. Data showed U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in September, keeping it on a higher growth path heading into the fourth quarter. In the physical market, purchases of gold during a major festival in India improved this week, albeit at a slower pace compared to last year, as domestic prices were near-record highs.”

On the day gold closed up $1.40 at $1988.60, and silver closed down $0.02 at $22.77.

Platinum closed down $2.90 at $897.20, and palladium closed down $21.80 at $1124.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $2,050.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,003.70 and then at the October high of $2,009.20. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,981.60 and then at this week’s low of $1,964.60. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending higher on the daily bar chart, but the bulls need to show fresh power soon to keep it alive. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $23.00 and then at $23.35. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $22.565 and then at $22.25.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                                                                                                                 

Gold – 3 Month Peak – Safe Haven Demand

Commentary for Friday, October 20, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $14.10 at $1982.50, and silver closed up $0.46 at $23.35. Both gold and silver finished the week trending higher, helped by safe haven demand, an improved technical picture, and Chief Powell’s dovish hints. This fresh interest in metals, however, is driven by fear of more Middle East escalation. I’m sorry to say that the world’s list of hot spots is growing, and possible answers are less effective. Unless the forces at war do not stand down and find a way around this impasse the innocent will continue to suffer. Last Friday gold closed at $1927.40 / silver at $22.73 – on the week gold was higher by $55.10 and silver was higher by $0.62.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.  

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold traded between $1915.00 and $1923.00, not much of a spread considering the serious problems brewing in the Middle East. The plus here for gold is that it remains above $1900.00.

There is talk that the Fed will pause in November, but I think this is unlikely given rising inflation. The variables relative to precious metal pricing are moving towards the more “confusing side” at a time when most traders were hoping for a quiet holiday season.

So, what’s a good choice when the investing world is getting more confusing? Physical gold or silver bullion? ETFs? Stocks or Bonds? The crazier it gets (to a point) the better good old cash looks! This approach allows the investor to take advantage of bumps in the road. And it’s a pretty safe bet to expect bumps and volatility along the way.

Goldman Sachs (Reuters) – “The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates at its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote on Saturday, while also forecasting the U.S. central bank would lift its economic growth projections when policymakers gather next week. “On November, we think that further labor market rebalancing, better news on inflation, and the likely upcoming Q4 growth pothole will convince more participants that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can forgo a final hike this year, as we think it ultimately will,” the investment bank’s strategists wrote in a report. Goldman’s strategists, however, wrote that they expect the Fed’s “dot plot,” which reflects policymakers’ interest rate projections and will be updated on Wednesday, to show “a narrow 10-9 majority still penciling in one more hike, if only to preserve flexibility for now,” they wrote.”

FXEMPIRE (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Pulls Back to Moving Average – “Gold markets have pulled back a bit during the trading session on Monday, as the overbought condition from Friday abated. That being said, it looks like the 200-Day EMA is of course offering a little bit of support, so it will attract a certain amount of attention. Ultimately, if we break down below the 200-They EMA, it’s likely that the market will continue to correct, at least to the $1900 level. All of that being said, it is difficult to go short of a market that rallied 3 ½% during the previous session. At this point, I think we are overbought, but whether or not we get a true correction remains to be seen. In fact, I would not be comfortable shorting this market until we break down below the $1900 level again. Alternatively, if we turn around a break above the $1950 level, gold could go looking to the $2000 level after that. It’s probably worth noting that we are at the apex of the previous triangle, so we are essentially in an area where the market is going to be doing a lot of fighting. Because of this, I would be very cautious about putting a lot of money into the market, and I would also keep a close eye on interest rates in America, because the higher they go, the lower gold goes, at least that’s the typical correlation. It certainly has been the way the market has been behaving recently, so it is something worth paying attention to. The size of the candlestick on Friday is very telling, and of course volume spiked as well. It is because of this that I think the market is trying to do everything he can to change directions, but the question at this point is whether or not it can break through all of that previous noise? Pay attention to the peripheral markets, meaning the bond markets, and how they behave, as well as the US dollar. It’s worth noting that the US dollar can and will rise right along with gold at times, especially in geopolitical situations like we have now. In other words, you can’t just trade the “higher dollar, lower gold” scenario. You need to be a bit more nimble.”

On the day gold closed down $6.30 at $1921.10, and silver closed down $.12 at $22.61.

On Tuesday gold remained quiet, moving from $1915.00 through $1930.00, before settling on the day. Traders remain watchful of developments in the Middle East. And fresh interest rate hints from Chief Powell later this week will also be pondered carefully.

The price of silver began moving higher in the overnight Hong Kong and London markets, consolidated, and then challenged daily highs ($23.00) in the domestic trade. This could also portend a meaningful shift in the physical silver market.

Not sure what to make of this so early on, but the technical guys suggest a short-term bottom is in place and higher silver prices are in the making. Even a false rumor is worth $1.00 or more in the silver market which thrives on such comings and goings. Being suspicious is always a good rule, but someone is taking this latest speculation seriously, we sold almost half our available silver bullion to half a dozen people looking for immediate delivery.

This latest silver surge is interesting in that gold, while supported by the Middle East tragedy, remains threatened over the likelihood of further interest rate hikes. Which leads some insiders to suggest that the “green” environmental movement may make silver a better bet than gold both in the short and long term. Not a new idea but one worth considering.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold firm on Middle East conflict, focus on Fed Chair’s speech – “Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as investors took stock of developments in the Middle East and awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later this week for cues on the U.S. interest rate path. “The precious metal is likely to remain heavily influenced by Fed rate expectations and geopolitical risk. Much focus will be on Jerome Powell. If Powell strikes a hawkish tone, this could boost Fed hike bets, pressuring gold prices as a result,” FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga said. U.S. President Joe Biden will visit Israel on Wednesday as the country prepares to escalate an offensive against Hamas militants that has raised fears of a broader conflict with Iran. Gold is often used as a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty. “It (gold) has eased to around $1,920 but there seems to be some pushback against a steeper retreat amid the volatile nature of this conflict that’s keeping investors on alert,” Raffi Boyadjian, lead investment analyst at forex broker XM, said. Investors’ focus will be on Powell’s speech on Thursday after dovish signals by top policymakers in recent weeks raised expectations that rates may have peaked. The U.S. retail sales report and industrial production data, due later today, will also be scrutinized to gauge the economic strength of the world’s biggest economy. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to a more than one-week high, lowering non-yielding bullion’s appeal. Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.8% on Monday.”

On the day gold closed up $1.60 at $1922.70, and silver closed up $0.25 at $22.86.

On Wednesday the gold trade moved between $1940.00 and $1960.00 before settling, so pricing spreads were similar to Tuesday, even as safe haven demand escalated, and the Gaza nightmare continues. Professionals see even higher prices in the short term but I’m still in a “wait and see” mode. This market may already be overbought but for now that is a minority opinion.

If you consider the 1-year gold pricing chart you will see that gold is now facing very strong overhead resistance between $1900.00 and $2000.00. Traders, even if they are still bullish, will be expecting consolidation and perhaps a round of profit taking.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold advances as Middle East tensions spur safe-haven demand – “Gold rose to a more than one-month peak on Wednesday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East sent investors flocking towards the safe-haven metal. “Elevated risks in the Middle East are prompting safe-haven demand for gold and silver, the technical posture for both has also improved. I think gold will push above $2,000 in the near term,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. “Gold will pull back if the Middle East situation simmers down, but right now the marketplace is expecting a further escalation.” Gold, considered a safe store of value amid political and financial uncertainty, has climbed more than 5% so far in October. While Wall Street’s main stock indexes have dipped amid risk aversion. About 500 Palestinians were killed in a blast at a Gaza City hospital on Tuesday that Israeli and Palestinian officials blamed on each other. Market focus is also on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due on Thursday, which could offer some clarity on the Fed’s interest rate path after recent dovish comments from several U.S. policymakers. Traders are pricing in a 60% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, highlighted in a note that asset managers, many of which trade gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), continue to focus on U.S. economic strength, rising bond yields and potentially another delay in peak rates. Holdings in bullion-backed ETFs continue to decline, the paper market is still in sell mode, added Hansen.”

On the day gold closed up $32.60 at $1955.30, and silver closed up $0.08 at $22.94.

On Thursday the price of gold in early trading drifted between $1950.00 and $1956.00. Waiting for Fed comments by Chief Powell today in New York. His thoughts, mid-morning still suggested that caution is warranted. But noted that our economy remains strong and higher bond prices might reduce the need for further tightening. His was relaxed, tending toward dovish.

Still, traders lean toward a hawkish Fed. (Reuters) “Inflation is still too high, and a few months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal,” Powell said, citing the progress made since inflation peaked last year but also noting that one of the Fed’s main measures of inflation remained at 3.7% through September, nearly twice the central bank’s target.”

Gold seemed to ignore the Chief’s comments as it finished the day surprisingly in the green. It did not fade in price likely because this “news” was anticipated and thus already factored into the pricing model. And gold is further supported by continued bad news from the Gaza Strip, yet both these factors are tenuous, and if support weakens a profit taking round would be typical.

Still, it is unlikely this market will “lurch” dramatically, one way or the other. It appears “higher for longer” is the best choice, but like I have been saying the downside here for gold may be surprisingly mild during this transition.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold firms on Mideast conflict, Powell takes center stage – “Gold crept higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday as growing tensions in the Middle East sparked safe-haven demand, while investors strapped in for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day. Israel pounded Gaza with more air strikes, as British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak followed U.S. President Joe Biden on visits to demonstrate support for the war against Hamas while urging Israel to ease the plight of besieged Gazans. Gold prices have risen nearly $120 since the start of the Middle East conflict. But while gold has gained due to the war, “buying exhaustion is fairly imminent,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities, adding prices should consolidate around the $1,950 range in the near term. Fed Chair Powell will take the podium at the Economic Club of New York, with his colleagues at the U.S. central bank in apparent agreement to hold interest rates unchanged at their next meeting in two weeks. Markets are pricing in around a 94% chance the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “Any signs of deteriorating data in the U.S. is required to get discretionary interest into the precious metal, which has been a large missing piece. Recession would allow Fed to cut rates and help prices move north of $2,100,” Ghali.

On the day gold closed up $13.10 at $1968.40, and silver closed down $0.05 at $22.89.

On Friday the price of gold moved higher for the fourth day in a row over rising Middle East anxiety. Today’s surge peaked at $1995.00 but settled at the higher end of its trading range going into the weekend. This does not suggest a tired bull but profit taking should be anticipated.

Selling has increased across our trading desk; the public is taking advantage of these higher prices. The tough overhead resistance ($2000.00) established in April is problematic.

With higher interest rates anticipated expect a bumpy ride, profit taking, and volatility.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold hits 3-mth peak as investors take cover from Middle East risks – “Gold climbed to a three-month peak on Friday, enroute to a second straight weekly rise, as fears of a further escalation in the Middle East conflict bolstered safe-haven demand. “There’s an enormous amount of uncertainty around Israel and Gaza at the minute, and two days can feel like a very long time under the circumstances. So (there are) safe-haven flows and risk aversion going into the weekend; I don’t think that would be a surprise to anyone,” said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA. Israel levelled a northern Gaza district on Friday and ordered the evacuation of the biggest Israeli town near the Lebanese border, as it made clear that a command to invade Gaza was expected soon. Gold has risen 2.5% this week, and added nearly $150 since the onset of the conflict. Gold was also supported “as fears of another Fed rate hike in 2023 subside,” Fitch Solutions said in a note, forecasting prices to average $1,950 an ounce this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday agreed “in principle” that the rise in bond yields was helping to further tighten financial conditions and “at the margin” might lessen the need for additional rate increases. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep rates on hold at its policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Spot gold is expected to extend gains into a range of $1,998-$2,010 per ounce, as it has broken a resistance at $1,972, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.”

On the day gold closed up $14.10 at $1982.50, and silver closed up $0.46 at $23.35.

Platinum closed up $7.40 at $896.70, and palladium closed down $17.70 at $1104.00.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,997.60 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at $1,980.20 and then at $1,968.90. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $23.49 and then at $23.80. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $22.78.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                                                                                                                 

Gold – Safe Haven Demand Soars

Commentary for Friday, October 13, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $58.10 at $1927.40, and silver closed up $0.94 at $22.73. Today is typical of the gold trade lately, in that just when you think you have all the pieces of the puzzle lined up correctly an unexpected event upsets the apple cart. Gold prices began to rise overnight in the Hong Kong and London markets and kept on going in the New York domestic trade. Gold finally wobbled around $1930.00 but held as Middle East tension escalated. The Washington Post – “Israel called on the entire population of the northern Gaza Strip — about 1.1 million people — to move south within the Palestinian territory within 24 hours. Israeli strikes are pounding the densely populated enclave and troops are amassing nearby, ahead of an anticipated ground incursion after Hamas militants staged one of the deadliest attacks in Israeli history. Hamas described the Israeli evacuation warning as psychological warfare and urged people not to comply. Gaza authorities said there was nowhere safe to go under siege, while health officials said it would be impossible to evacuate hospitals, which are already facing power shortages and dwindling supplies. The United Nations, also criticizing the order, warned of devastating humanitarian consequences.”  Last Friday gold closed at $1830.20 / silver at $21.54 – on the week gold was higher by $97.20 and silver was higher by $1.19.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.  

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday gold trended lower on the open ($1843.00) but quickly reversed direction as a surprise Hamas attack in Gaza over the weekend refocused safe haven in gold. While the upward trend this morning topped out around $1855.00 this kind of hostile activity by terrorist groups is difficult to assess. Especially in an already volatile region like the Middle East. My initial reaction is to discount safe haven demand once the violence quiets down, but you never know because such terror can quickly attract all kinds of splinter groups. Let’s be hopeful.

Today used to be called Columbus Day, it has been renamed Indigenous People’s Day. It used to be a national holiday, but these rules have also evolved. The bond markets are closed, the banks are closed, the post office is closed, and Brinks celebrates the holiday.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivprasad) – Safe-haven gold hits 1-week high on Middle East conflict – “Gold prices scaled a one-week high on Monday after military conflict between Israeli forces and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas raised political unrest in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Israel’s troops were battling on Monday to clear out Hamas gunmen more than two days after they burst across the fence from Gaza on a deadly rampage. There are a lot of questions about what could happen next in the Middle East, if the situation further escalates, then gold prices could move towards $1,900, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Gold is considered a safe store of value amid political and economic turmoil. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell, while crude prices jumped more than 3% as the Middle East violence rattled markets. Market focus is also on minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting and the U.S. inflation data due later this week. “We do not believe the FOMC will continue to hike rates into increased uncertainty, and the prospect for peak rates have suddenly move closer despite the potential inflationary impact of higher oil prices,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a note. Traders are now pricing in an around 28% chance of another rate hike from the Fed this year, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.

On the day gold closed up $19.30 at $1849.50, and silver closed up $0.20 at $21.74.

On Tuesday the gold trade seemed to cool, adjusting to yesterday’s Hamas attack which placed the Gaza Strip in turmoil. This points to early containment and less safe haven demand, in the short term. But this recent attack may suggest the violent and more extreme factions are gaining strength in an area which has been plagued with war for nearly 18 years.

This morning CNBC reports “The al-Qassam armed wing of Palestinian militant group Hamas said it launched hundreds of missiles at the southern Israeli city of Ashkelon, saying the attack was “in response to the displacement of civilians.” It comes shortly after al-Qassam’s deadline of 5 p.m. local time for Ashkelon citizens to leave the premises had passed. This is the fourth day of an ongoing lethal conflict between Hamas and the Israeli administration.”

The problem here is that all sides feel justified in striking out, which leads to escalation. I assumed the price of gold this morning would trend much higher. The fact that momentum has cooled suggests the world has again ignored the problem, hoping for an internal solution.

This is a revival of an old fight, and the international community understands the resolve on all sides. Still, they are hesitant to show leadership in resolving this human catastrophe because it will lead to more religious radicalism. What a tragic mess, pray for the Middle East.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold rally loses steam as yields edge up, stocks rebound – “Gold prices edged down on Tuesday after clocking a sharp rise in the last session as risk sentiment improved and bond yields rebounded, while investors awaited the U.S. inflation data due later this week. Gold prices edged down on Tuesday after clocking a sharp rise in the last session as risk sentiment improved and bond yields rebounded, while investors awaited the U.S. inflation data due later this week. Gold rose about 1.6% on Monday, its biggest one-day jump in five months, as military clashes between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas boosted demand for safe-haven investments. “Markets remain responsive to further signs of escalation and further events that unfold over the coming days. But for now, it seems that markets have settled down,” said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA. Gold has run into resistance at $1,865, with some initial profit taking on the back of two very positive days backed by risk aversion and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s balanced commentary, Erlam added. European stocks rebounded sharply on Tuesday as dovish comments from Fed policymakers and easing oil prices helped calm investor nerves. The military conflict in the Middle East is threatening more volatility for investors, adding to uncertainty ahead of the corporate earnings season and crucial U.S. Consumer Price Index data on Thursday, which could offer more visibility on the Fed’s rate-hike path. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday that the recent run-up in yields may reduce the need for further interest rate hikes. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.7049%, decreasing the appeal for non-yielding bullion. In the longer run, however, U.S. rates will be the bigger driver, said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com, adding that yields are broadly very positive “and that’s kryptonite for gold”.

On the day gold closed up $11.50 at $1861.00, and silver closed up $0.04 at $21.78.

On Wednesday the gold trade remained choppy with an upward bias, trading between $1868.00 and $1877.00. The fact that gold is up from recent lows is a plus for bullish sentiment, but professional traders remain cautious. The dollar is moving lower, and this helps fill in that base support. Troubles in the Middle East may further support higher gold and higher oil prices.

The Dollar Index peaked a week ago at 107.00 and is currently trading around 105.50. This weakness is likely transitory but a substantial drop like this braces the bullish gold scenario. As does the notion that bond yields may become unstable. The Hamas conflict could easily turn into another fundamental reason to own physical gold. Especially if the warring parties become more violent and they lose control of their most militant factions.

FXEMPIRE (Cristopher Lewis) – Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Rally – “Gold has completely ignored the PPI numbers coming out twice what they were expected to be in the United States, and despite the fact that inflation is so strong, it looks like the traders in the markets are going to continue to see gold at least attempt to rally. The CPI numbers on Thursday will probably be much more impactful, and it’s probably worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is getting ready to cross below the 200-Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “death cross.” We also have the $1900 level in that general vicinity, which of course has a lot of market memory attached to it.   Gold will continue to move right along with bond markets, so pay close attention to those yields. If those yields start to turn around and rally again, that will be absolutely toxic for gold. Given enough time, there could come in the “safety trade”, into the gold market at least, which may be part of what we have seen over the last couple of days. The $1800 level underneath is a major support level, and an area that would be difficult to break through. In general, this is a market that I believe continues to be noisy, but it has had a nice relief rally, something that probably get sold into. On the other hand, if we break above those moving averages above, that opens up the possibility of a move to the $1950 level, and then possibly even the $2000 level. That being said, I don’t think it’s going to be an easy move to make that happen, but if we get above those moving averages, I would assume that we should eventually get to that $2000 level. All things being equal, you need to be cautious with your position sizing but I do recognize that it’s also become a bit of a short-term trading environment. That’s probably true with most markets around the world, so I don’t know that gold would or should be any different at this point in time. We’ve had a nice rally, but we still have a long way to go to change everything in the opposite direction.”

On the day gold closed up $11.80 at $1872.80, and silver closed up $0.18 at $21.96.

On Thursday the bulls should be happy with gold’s short-term bottom ($1820.00) and subsequent rise to recent highs approaching $1880.00. Inflation looks stubborn, the Middle East and Hamas continue to threaten. Fed uncertainty binds these volatile factors into an uncertain trade which will likely be prolonged for months.

And the price of gold again faces two old nemeses. The rising certainty of higher interest rates over the longer term and the tough price ceiling which remains above $1900.00. This trading model is not new, but it is predictable.

Expect paper traders, especially at these higher levels, to sell rallies. And aggressively buy weakness. This gives everyone plenty of time to sit tight and wait for something to give.

You should have a pressure cooker trade at this point because there is plenty going on, but the daily price spreads are uneventful. Patience will be needed, but not necessarily rewarding.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold trims gains as yields, dollar rise after US inflation data – “Gold prices pared gains on Thursday as dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher after U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in September and raised worries that the Federal Reserve could keep rates higher for some time. The consumer price index increased 0.4% last month after a 0.3% gain in August, the Labor Department said. However, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. “The warm CPI print might be enough to slow gold’s formidable rally into a consolidation but in itself shouldn’t trigger a serious selloff especially given high geopolitical tensions,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. Traders now see a 40% probability of a rate hike in December from the Fed, according to CME Fedwatch tool, compared with about a 28% chance seen before the report. U.S. benchmark 10-year yields and dollar index rose after the data. Offering support to safe-haven gold, the escalating conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant Islamist group Hamas has kept investors on the edge. Gold is used as a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty, but higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “There are still some signs that there is a slowdown in the U.S. economy, this should benefit gold. I anticipate prices could trade in the $1,860-$1,920 range in the near term,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.”

On the day gold closed down $3.50 at $1869.30, and silver closed down $0.17 at $21.79.

On Friday the price of gold moved dramatically higher as years of tension within the Gaza Strip boiled over into fierce fighting between factions. The fact that Hamas has taken and threatened to kill hostages raises the stakes considerably. This escalation in a small area already devastated by decades of conflict has focused attention on a perennial question.

Should you negotiate with terrorists, under any conditions? The divisions here are deep, long standing and rooted in opposing religious views. But I believe that negotiation with an open mind to both sides of the problem is sensible in a complicated world. If Israel continues with its proposed ground assault within Gaza it provides little hope for the innocent.

As far as the gold trade is concerned, easing this escalation would weaken prices. It would also encourage the short trade which has been helped by the belief that interest rates have peaked.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains on safe-haven inflows, set for best week since March – “Gold jumped more than 2% and was set for its best week in seven months on Friday, as conflict in the Middle East lifted safe-haven demand for the metal, combined with expectations that the U.S. interest rates may have peaked. Expectations of an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Islamist group Hamas is mainly pressuring yields and driving gold prices higher, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Israel called for all civilians in the northern half of the Gaza Strip to relocate south within 24 hours, as it amassed tanks for an expected ground assault in response to an attack by Hamas. Gold is considered a safe investment during times of geopolitical and economic turmoil. “Despite yesterday’s warmer than expected inflation report, currently there is an expectation that Fed will not hike rates in the November meeting, which is also helping prices.” U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell, having strengthened in the last session after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased in September. Traders currently see around a 67% chance of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged this year, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. In the physical gold market, a rebound in domestic prices dulled activity in India, while premiums in China retreated further from recent highs.”

On the day gold closed up $58.10 at $1927.40, and silver closed up $0.94 at $22.73.

Platinum closed up $8.50 at $875.50, and palladium closed up $9.40 at $1148.70.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, bulls have momentum and recent price action begins to suggest a market bottom is in place. Prices are still in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,950.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,823.50. First resistance is seen at $1,913.60 and then at $1,922.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,881.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of $1,871.70. The silver bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, the bulls have gained momentum this week to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the October low of $20.85. First resistance is seen at $22.555 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at $22.00 and then at this week’s low of $21.70.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                                                                        

Gold – An Interest Rate Dilemma  

Commentary for Friday, October 6, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $13.60 at $1830.20, and silver closed up $0.69 at $21.54. Will the Fed raise interest rates again in November and keep them elevated for a longer period? The Wall Street Journal offers a contrary opinion – the chances of that rate increase are going down because of an unstable bond market. At the same time the latest US nonfarm payrolls came in hot this morning. Our economy is strong, offering the Fed a good reason to push interest rates higher in the battle against inflation. This is another one of those pesky details which often throws a monkey wrench into commodity trading. It is difficult to argue against the notion that higher interest rates have created generally weaker prices in both gold and silver. Trying to fathom what the Fed might do given these opposing forces will require a great master at reading the tea leaves. Or perhaps a genuine mystic. Enjoy a quiet weekend. Last Friday gold closed at $1848.10 / silver at $22.24 – on the week gold was down $17.90 and silver was off $0.70.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.  

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the bullish hopefuls were looking for some kind of short-term relief from falling gold prices. But this was not to be as analysts are waving the red flag – fearful of higher, and continued interest rate hikes by an aggressive Fed.

This already hot trade was further encouraged by a stronger dollar. The Dollar Index this morning moved from 106.00 through 107.00 before settling only modestly lower on the day.

Could this be an overreaction? It’s possible if you are an optimist, but this group of stalwarts is getting smaller. Still, Chief Powell in true form will take the time necessary to make sure his “option” ducks are all in a row. Which suggests another “wait and see” moment.

In the meantime, the power of momentum and speculation weigh heavily on the metals.

The pricing conversation that not too long ago was discussing $1900.00 must now reckon with whether gold will hold the precarious $1800.00 support.

As usual, patience in these downward swoops will likely prove rewarding. But keep your eye on the prize, the goal in any event is to own physical metal. Gold and silver bullion provides a degree of independence because it works as a financial asset which is outside typical government control. A handy aid in times of trouble, in case this grand experiment goes off the tracks.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold extends fall as strong dollar, higher US rates take toll – “Gold extended its decline for a sixth straight session on Monday to hit a near seven-month trough, as a robust dollar and prospects of higher U.S. interest rates took the shine off bullion. “There is a reckoning that interest rates are going to be higher for much longer, which has been the bearish element in the precious market. Gold prices could go below $1,800 in the near term,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. “Trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer lasting. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar may not end anytime soon, pressuring the gold market.” The U.S. dollar (.DXY) rose 0.6%, making bullion less attractive to other currency holders. Traders are pricing in a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current range of 5.25%-5.50% this year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Federal Governor Michelle Bowman said she remains willing to support another increase in rates if incoming data shows progress on inflation is stalling or proceeding too slowly. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, however, said rates are “at or near” sufficiently restrictive level. Since powering above the key $2,000-per-ounce level in early May, gold prices have fallen more than 11%, or $230, pressured by a sharp rise in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields, which makes the non-yielding gold less attractive. “The buying on dips (in gold) by central banks is now conspicuously absent,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. The market focus now shifts to job openings data, private hiring numbers and U.S. nonfarm payrolls over the course of the week.”

On the day gold closed down $18.10 at $1830.00, and silver closed down $1.02 at $21.22.

On Tuesday gold was still in a downtrend but the drop in prices was not as extreme, so the avalanche of lower prices may have abated in the short term. The dollar remains strong, as the Dollar Index has moved nearly two points higher since last Friday.

The bulls are sidelined. But the bears also have their problems in that gold pricing may now have to deal with an oversold market. And the Fed has its own set of problems, even though they seem resolute about higher interest rates, even into next year. With the bulls, the bears and the Fed at war with each other and often times playing on both sides of the street the gold trade presents a high degree of risk to all concerned.

The dollar could correct lower (not likely but possible) providing the bulls shelter at these lower prices. And while the bearish scenario is most popular these days, they are not without risk because these lower prices always create bargain hunting. Finally, this phase of the uncoupling offers all concerned an ideal opportunity to switch sides without warning.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold down for 7th day on higher dollar, yields; US jobs data eyed – “Gold prices languished near a seven-month low on Tuesday, weighed down by a robust dollar and elevated bond yields as the likelihood of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer dominated sentiment. U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, pointing to tight labor market conditions that could compel the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month. “The JOLTS report has surprised the market as it raises prospects of another hike but also lowers expectation of a slowdown in the U.S. economy, pressuring precious metals,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties. But higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is priced in dollars and does not yield interest. Gold prices briefly ticked up earlier in the session as the dollar sharply weakened against the yen, just moments after briefly rising above 150 for the first time since October 2022, signaling a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. “If the Bank of Japan intervenes, it could weaken dollar in the short term and provide some support to the precious metals,” Moya added. The market focus is now on September nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday. “We reiterate our 12-month target of $1,725 per ounce and remain cautious on gold,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.”

On the day gold closed down $5.20 at $1824.60, and silver closed down $0.04 at $21.18.

On Wednesday the downward trend in gold slows as the daily price loss diminishes. And today’s aftermarket was higher by $5.00 for the first time this week. Perhaps suggesting interest in bargain hunting or a mild short-covering rally. This kind of oscillation is typical of a market in transition. Still, I don’t see a gold turnaround, but perhaps a hint at stabilization. For the gold scenario to get that needed boost the FOMC must become friendly before the holiday season.

This is true because our economy seems to be adjusting to higher interest rates. This in turn gives the Fed more room for experimenting with their much sought after soft landing.

I am not a big fan of predicting recession because economists claim the definition of “recession” is difficult to pin down. Your best shot is to prepare for that continued slowdown, if rates move higher and hope that it passes by unnoticed, at least in your neighborhood.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold edges up as dollar slips after US jobs data – “Gold held near a seven-month low on Wednesday, while palladium slipped to its weakest level since late 2018, as a sell-off in the U.S. bond markets lifted yields after economic data raised worries that interest rates will likely remain high. Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings rose unexpectedly in August, pointing to a still-tight labor market that could lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month. The benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yield scaled fresh 16-year highs, while sentiment in wider financial markets also remained weak as the bond rout continues. Gold has shed more than $100 in the past two weeks as bets for higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates dented the zero-yielding asset’s appeal and partly overshadowed its traditional safe-haven role. A fall below $1,800 is likely, if the narrative that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer continues to gain traction, said ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista. Meanwhile, Fed officials consider rising long-term Treasury yields as evidence their tight-money policies are working. Markets are pricing in a 44% chance of another 25-basis-point rate hike this year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The investor focus remains on U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for cues on the Fed’s rate hike path. “Asia’s retail gold demand should rebound October-February and central banks continue to add to gold reserve holdings, which should be supportive for markets over a 6-12 month horizon,” analysts at Citi Research said in a note.”

On the day gold closed down $6.10 at $1818.50, and silver closed down $0.22 at $20.96.

On Thursday the price moved back and forth between $1812.00 at $1822.00 so the rate of decline seems to be slowing, as noted on Wednesday. This is also true for silver. It is difficult to say how traders will react here in the short term because bearish sentiment is still building. And helped along by a bearish technical picture and a hawkish Fed.

My guess in the short term is that gold and silver will continue to settle lower, but that is just a guess. There are too many variables. That is the bad news, the good news is that even the mighty Fed will soon be forced to make a problematic decision. And it’s my feeling that their November rate hike may be the Fed’s infamous Rubicon.

The phrase “crossing the Rubicon” is an idiom that means “passing a point of no return”. Its meaning comes from an allusion to the crossing of the river Rubicon by Julius Caesar in 49 BC, a fateful mistake that led to a civil war and the end of the Roman Republic.

If you are still bullish on gold or silver, especially in the longer term, current prices are low enough to see early bargain hunting. If you think this market has more downside, holding cash in the short term may not be a bad idea. As usual patience is a virtue.

Reuters (Harshit Verma) – Gold steady as bond yields ease with focus on US jobs data – “Gold prices held steady on Thursday as Treasury yields pulled back from 16-year highs and investors awaited U.S. jobs data for more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Gold on Wednesday posted its worst losing run since 2016, dropping for an eighth straight session, as the likelihood of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer weighed on sentiment. Echoing investor demand, SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell to its lowest since August 2019 on Wednesday. “Over the past few weeks gold really took a tumble, the big driver for that appears to be the rise in long term US interest rates,” said Edward Gardner, commodities economist at Capital Economics. The benchmark 10-year bond yield slipped after data on Wednesday showed U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in September. Markets now look forward to U.S. weekly jobless claims data and September’s non-farm payrolls report on Friday which is expected to show that employers added 170,000 jobs. Traders are pricing in around a 37% chance of another rate hike from the Fed this year, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, as these increase the opportunity cost of holding it. “As we get towards the end of this year, we do think that the price of gold will appreciate next year and in our view that the Fed will cut interest rates by more than markets currently anticipate,” Gardner said.”

On the day gold closed down $1.90 at $1816.60, and silver closed down $0.11 at $20.85.

On Friday the New York cash market was worth a closer look considering all the confusion about what the Fed might or might not do with interest rates. The domestic trade opened steady, dipped to lows on the day ($1810.00) and then steadily moved higher on three separate occasions, reaching $1835.00. This may not look like a big deal, but it suggests the paper trade may not breach $1800.00 support. And in fact, is closing out short positions and perhaps even bargain hunting. Look for continued volatility but this may become a plus for the bulls.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold slides as dollar, yields rise after strong jobs data – “Gold prices fell on Friday after strong jobs data pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher, while raising expectations that the market remains strong enough for the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. The Labor Department’s report showed non-farm payrolls increased by 336,000 jobs in September on a monthly basis, against expectations of 170,000 additions, according to a Reuters poll of economists. “It is going to be difficult for gold to find traction in this higher interest rate environment. There will be areas of technical support for prices once Treasury yields retrace,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Benchmark Treasury yields edged higher and the dollar index (.DXY) rose 0.4%, denting appeal for gold. Traders are pricing in around a 29% chance of another rate hike from the Fed this year, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. “If gold can hold the $1,805-$1,810 range today, then we should get a good bounce,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.”

On the day gold closed up $13.60 at $1830.20, and silver closed up $0.69 at $21.54.

Platinum closed up $18.90 at $871.10, and palladium closed up $18.40 at $1164.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,848.80 and then at $1,850.00. First support is seen at $1,815.00 and then at $1,800.00. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $21.595 and then at $22.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $20.85 and then at $20.50.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.                                                                                                                                                                                       

Gold – More Rate Hikes? 

Commentary for Friday, September 29, 2023 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $12.30 at $1848.10, and silver closed down $0.28 at $22.24. Another one of those weeks the bulls would like to forget. A tepid short covering rally reversed direction in early trading and gold again moved to daily lows into the weekend. There is more than enough worry to go around. Traders are worrying over 9-month lows and a government shutdown; Barron’s is waving a red flag at Wall Street and the world is drowning in debt. The gold trade is so worried about rising interest rates that other problems are now on the back burner. Let’s hope the Fed does not get carried away with its powerful interest rate hammer as it too continues to worry about rising inflation. Last Friday gold closed at $1925.40 / silver at $23.60 – on the week gold was down $77.30 and silver was down $1.36. Like I said, a dreary week for the bulls.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.  

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

On Monday the price of gold held around $1925.00 in early trading yet drifted to $1915.00 by the end of the day. Traders are in the same pickle as last week. Fed hawkishness continues to grind away at the bullish scenario. At the same time, the price of gold is still in the fight above the important $1900.00 support.

I suspect this “give and take” market will remain in place until the last two FOMC meetings of 2023. The Oct/Nov confab is only important in that it might set the stage for the much-awaited December 12^th and 13^th get together. The Fed calls this last meeting of the year a “Meeting associated with a Summary of Economic Projections”. One that everyone will be eager to hear as Chief Powell explains how current policies will eventually control inflation and interest rates.

FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Resilient Amidst Rising Global Instability, US Government Shutdown Fears – Fed’s Hawkish Stance – The U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance remains primarily hawkish, with the potential for another rate hike by the year’s end, despite already aggressive monetary tightening cycles. This has driven the dollar and bond yields higher, creating pressure across commodity markets including gold. Global Economic Outlook – Major central banks worldwide are signaling a retention of high rates to combat inflation as concerns about global economic stagnation increase. The market is interpreting these decisions not as triumphs against inflation but as preemptive measures anticipating economic downturns. The sentiment is clear: the global economy is weakening, and the central banks are bracing for impact. Shutdown Mechanics – A government shutdown is imminent as the disagreement over federal spending escalates. This situation occurs when Congress fails to pass the requisite funding legislation, which results in a halt to all non-essential work by federal agencies, affecting millions of federal employees and various sectors of the economy. Shutdown Implications – If a shutdown occurs, the ramifications are extensive, impacting not just federal workers but also numerous government services and sectors connected to the federal government. Industries such as travel could face significant losses, and the overall economic growth could be reduced by 0.2% every week the shutdown persists. Market Reaction – Goldman Sachs predicts a temporary but significant dent in economic growth, coupled with a rebound once the government reopens. However, the repercussions extend beyond tangible financial losses to eroding confidence in the government’s ability to perform basic duties, possibly unsettling financial markets. Market Sentiment – There is a prevalent market belief that the government shutdown and resultant economic turmoil could offer a conducive environment for gold investments. Investors are possibly betting on gold to weather short-term governmental instability and to capitalize on potential long-term economic growth. Economic and Political Instability – The government shutdown, induced by disagreements over federal spending and inflamed by hard-right demands for extensive cuts, presents a critical backdrop to gold prices. The ensuing instability, both economic and political, could foster an environment conducive to gold investments, with the commodity potentially serving as a safe harbor amid turbulent economic seas. Bullish Outlook for Gold – The combination of aggressive monetary stances, looming economic challenges, and political instability might amplify gold’s appeal as a reliable investment. Considering the current economic landscape, market speculation, and prevailing sentiments, a strong upward trajectory for gold is conceivable, with investors likely turning to this time-tested asset for stability in the face of a turbulent financial scene. Final Notes – The multifaceted economic landscape, characterized by stringent monetary policies, looming government shutdowns, and potential economic contractions, highlights the imperative to closely monitor evolving market trends and sentiments. Gold’s status and trajectory in this intricate financial tapestry will likely be shaped by the unfolding economic and political narratives, requiring constant vigilance and informed analyses for optimal investment strategies.

On the day gold closed down $8.80 at $1916.60, and silver closed down $0.45 at $23.15.

On Tuesday the price of gold moved to session lows this morning, a pattern trade which has become typical of late. The problem gold has recently is that traders expect bad news even when there is some reason to suggest that the trading cup is half full not half empty.

Now that gold is again testing support ($1900.00) commentary assumes it will not hold up and the discussion centers around support at $1890.00. I have no problem with a market trending lower. And helped with a rising bearish technical picture, this one will likely bust through the $1900.00 support. But it is a mistake to let the current negative wave become your only fixation. Gold is still holding up at the higher end of its range. Paying attention to the “noise” is not a bad idea but keep your thinking within the wider and troubled world geo-political frame.

In this business, the lower the price of gold becomes, the more interest it creates in those who embrace the physical possession of real money. Money which is outside the control of banking or Wall Street. It is probably an understatement to say that people have a natural fear of government intervention, but these thinkers are the bedrock of the physical market. Increased bargain hunting is expected but this market will remain shaky as long as the Fed is aggressive.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold retreats as dollar, yields rise on hawkish Fed – “Gold prices on Tuesday were set to fall for a second straight session as Treasury yields and the dollar rose on prospects of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer. Inflation staying above the Fed’s 2% target remains a greater risk than tight central bank policy slowing the economy, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said on Monday. “The market is not currently positioned for gold to behave as a safe-haven yet. If there is a fear that the Fed is going to over-tighten and anticipation of significant deterioration in the economy, then it is good news for gold,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is priced in dollars and does not yield interest. The dollar rose to near 10-month highs while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields scaled a fresh 16-year peak. Investors await the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday to gauge the Fed’s interest-rate path. “If we get a hot report, then there will be further downward pressure on gold,” Moya added. Reflecting investor interest in bullion, SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell on Monday to their lowest level since January 2020. “The (gold) bears would be eying liquidity resting below recent lows at $1,900 and then at $1,885 next. Those are our immediate downside targets,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index.”

On the day gold closed down $16.20 at $1900.40, and silver closed down $0.20 at $22.95.

On Wednesday gold moved aggressively lower, threatening $1870.00. This drop surprised even me, but it does demonstrate how fast momentum players can jump on a serious trend. At this point even the serious players in the physical market will have to grin and bear it considering gold has moved from $1940.00 through $1870.00! A whopping $70.00 loss in the past month.

Bargain hunting is picking up across our counter, but it may be too soon to be looking for the expected short-covering rally and bounce in prices which would signal a short-term bottom. Still, I suspect this too may happen faster than bears would anticipate. All of this drama and we are only halfway through an interesting trading week with fresh inflation news due Friday.

Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold hastens retreat on higher-for-longer rate bets – “Gold extended declines for the third straight session on Wednesday as appeal for non-yielding bullion took a hit from bets that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated, while traders hoped for more cues from U.S. inflation numbers this week. The prospects of higher-for-longer U.S. rates sent investors scurrying to the safety of the dollar instead, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Further hammering appetite for zero-yield gold, Treasury yields also remained near 16-year highs. “As long as the narrative remains higher-for-longer, it’s going to continue pressuring precious metals, ” said Ryan McKay, commodity strategist at TD Securities, adding the break below the $1,900 mark also triggered technical selling. “If the (inflation) data continues to come in stronger, that will be another thing that continues to weigh on gold.” The U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is due on Friday. However, “If the inflation number falls, we could see some support coming to gold and the expectation of tightening monetary policy could dampen a bit,” said ANZ analyst Soni Kumari. A “soft landing” for the U.S. economy is more likely than not, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday, but there’s also a 40% chance that the Fed will need to raise rates “meaningfully” to beat inflation. On the flip side, gold continued to find some support from robust physical demand, especially from central banks and in China, although “the near-term dynamics are certainly the Fed,” TD’s McKay said.”

On the day gold closed down $28.80 at $1871.60, and silver closed down $0.47 at $22.48.

On Thursday the price of gold again dipped to session and new recent lows. This downward fall from grace has defined the bearish scenario of late because despite rising interest rates, and the Fed “pausing” for a second time the US economy seems to be doing just fine.

Of course, you can pick and choose sectors to criticize but generally Wall Street is not exactly hiding under the bed. This is, at least for the present time, the most optimistic “snapshot” paper investors could hope for and if this economic picture does not materially change the Fed has options and may continue to fight inflation with even higher interest rates.

A few of the “informed” believe that rates could move to 7%! This is what creates that underlying tension of something going amiss along the way. But if our economy stays above water the paper investment world sees blue skies and gold will remain under selling pressure.

Reuters (Swati Verma) – Gold holds near 6-month low as higher US rates bite – “Gold prices were subdued on Thursday, having slid to their lowest in about six months in the last session, as an elevated U.S. dollar and Treasury yields continued to exert pressure on the non-yielding metal. The dollar held near 10-month highs against its major peers, while Treasury yields climbed to a 16-year peak as investors bet the U.S. economy will outperform its competitors in an environment of higher interest rates. “Expectation that the Fed is not done and could do more is weighing on the gold price.” Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which does not yield interest, and support the dollar, in which it is priced. Gold prices have shed more than 3% so far this month and are on track for their worst monthly showing since February. The metal fell 1.4% on Wednesday in its biggest daily decline since July. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday said he is not yet ready to say rates have been lifted enough to get inflation back to the 2% target amid ample evidence of ongoing economic strength. Data on Wednesday showed orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose in August and business spending on equipment appeared to regain momentum. Market focus now turns to the revised U.S. GDP growth rate for the second quarter and weekly jobless claims due later in the day, with the August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. “Despite the Fed hiking rates, incoming data out of the U.S. remains solid,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.”

On the day gold closed down $11.20 at $1860.40, and silver closed up $0.04 at $22.52.

On Friday the fact that gold showed no interest in a short covering rally will further damage the bullish scenario. With $1900.00 now in the rear-view mirror the possibility of testing $1800.00 support, which goes back to early December of last year will weigh heavily on the paper trade. If you are thinking of buying this weakness, patience might be rewarding. But frankly I’m surprised this market is not already considered oversold. The reason likely being is that this latest swoon in prices caught everyone by surprise. We are seeing virtually no selling in bullion gold or silver at these new lower prices but at the same time customers are not waiting in line. My bet is that it might take a week, or two before normal trading volumes are reestablished.

Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold ticks higher on slowing US core price inflation – “Gold prices rose on Friday, helped by a retreating dollar and Treasury yields as data showed core price inflation slowed in August, but bullion was still on track for monthly and quarterly declines on prospects of higher U.S. interest rates. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.9% on an annual basis in August, down from 4.3% in July. The headline index, however, gained by 3.5% on the year, up from 3.4% in July. “We have seen lows in gold for the short term. After weaker PCE, a move back over $1,885 will be a salve for scalded bulls,” said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader. “Last weeks ‘higher-for-longer’ Fed dot plot has done its damage, but gold has been remarkably resilient behind central bank buying.” Bullion hit its lowest in six months on Thursday and is set to end September down 3.3% and the quarter 2.3% lower, after the Federal Reserve struck a hawkish stance. Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is priced in dollars and does not yield any interest. The dollar was down 0.4% and benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated from a 16-year peak, lifting bullion’s appeal, but both were still headed for quarterly rise. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy maintained a fairly solid pace of growth in the second quarter. On the physical front, gold premiums eased slightly in top consumer China this week, but remained elevated on high investor demand amid a broadly weaker yuan and economic worries.”

On the day gold closed down $12.30 at $1848.10, and silver closed down $0.28 at $22.24.

Platinum closed up $1.50 at $906.80, and palladium closed down $22.70 at $1255.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,950.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,850.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,896.80 and then at $1,900.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,879.60 and then at this week’s low of $1,874.50. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. There are stiff technical support layers just below the market that may halt the decline. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $24.05. The next downside objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $23.34 and then at $23.50. Support is seen at $23.00 and then at the overnight low of $22.81.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Have a blessed day. Richard Schwary

Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.