Gold – Will Higher Prices Continue?

Commentary for Friday, Jan 24, 2025 – Today gold closed up $14.20 at $2777.30, and silver closed up $0.35 at $31.02. As a fresh load of bullish news came crashing through the front door this week the big question on everyone’s mind should be easy. Is it time to once again seriously consider $3000.00 gold? Consider yes but keep in mind that $2784.00 was the highest price today. At that point traders sold this rally meaning the profit taking incentive is still an important part of this trade and suggests the road to higher prices may turn bumpy. The technical picture for both gold and silver suggests these higher prices are in the cards. But developing or refining your investment strategy at these record levels is difficult even for professionals. FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – “When you look at the chart, you can see that we are very much in an upward trend, and I don’t think that has changed any time over the last couple of months. I just think we were working off some of the excess froth. Now you can look at this as a huge, mutated W pattern, which typically means that we are going to go higher, but we have not broken to a fresh new high quite yet.” Enjoy the ride but don’t get carried away, the bottom line is to keep the longer term in mind, especially in the physical bullion market. Last Friday gold closed at $2744.30 / silver at $30.95On the week gold closed higher by $33.00, and silver closed higher by $0.07.

Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.

Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.

Monday, we celebrated Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We were closed and so were the commodity markets, the post office and the banks.

On Tuesday the price of gold trended lower on the open but turned around at $2710.00 and began to move higher and moving to highs of the day at $2755.00. The US market was closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, while the rest of the world is focused on several important outside issues like the Trump presidency and how possible tariffs will change the balance in safe haven demand. Generally, however, this market remains undecided and will be driven higher or lower, following changes in interest rates. This “back and forth” pricing should be familiar by now. The fact that gold remains north of $2700.00 is a bullish plus. But profit taking and other bearish factors continue to keep gold prices capped.

FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Strength – “The gold market continues to show a bit of strength in the early hours of the Tuesday session, as the market is trying to break free of the consolidation area that we have been in for some time. At this point, the market remains “buy on the dip.” Technical Analysis The gold market rallied a bit in the early hours, gaining about three quarters of a percent as New York comes online and I think ultimately, we’ve got a situation where gold is going to break out eventually, but it’s also possible that we could see this market pullback in the meantime in order to build up the necessary momentum to go higher. The market is somewhat sideways still. We haven’t really broken out yet, but I do think that a short-term pullback only invites more purchasing of gold as there is almost certainly going to be a major problem just waiting to happen with various economies and currencies around the world. In fact, I really like gold, but I like it even more against other currencies than the US dollar. If we do break higher, then it’s likely that the market will go looking to the $2,800 level. Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to be thought of as value played. The 50-day EMA right around the $2,650 level, think at this point in time will be offered a support level and a dynamic floor in the market. I have no interest in shorting gold anytime soon and I look at any pullback ads and potential value play, but I also recognize that gold, like pretty much everything else right now, is apt to be fairly volatile as the markets come to terms with the uncertainty of the world at the moment. Silver Continues to Look Lost – The silver market continues to see a lot of sideways action overall, as the markets are going to continue to pay close attention to interest rates and the value of the US dollar. Ultimately, I believe that silver will underperform against the gold market. Technical Analysis “Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session here on Tuesday, as we are squeezing between a previous support level and a previous uptrend line. So, there’s a lot of noise right here. Further, adding to the noise is the fact that we have the 50 day EMA hanging around in the same area as well. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to watch the $31 level very closely and if we can break above the $31 level, then it’s possible that we could see this market go higher, perhaps reaching the $32.50 cents level. On the other hand, if the market were to turn around and break down from here, the 200-day EMA offers a significant amount of support. The market breaking down below that level then opens up the possibility of a move down to the $28.75 level. It’s when you break below that you see silver fall apart. This is a situation where a lot of traders will continue to look at this through the prism of sideways action, trying to sort out where we go next.”

On the day gold closed up $10.70 at $2755.00, and silver closed up $0.36 at $31.31.  

On Wednesday the price of gold was off to another good start, trading between $2748.00 and $2759.00 as possible Trump policies create tension and push the price of gold higher. Still, in the short term this market may have turned choppy but still closed mildly in the green. What is interesting about this trading pattern is that while Trump has kicked around a few fresh ideas, at this point the President is vague as to how he will proceed in getting what he wants. From my point of view, I would not get too excited about the “talk” and wait patiently for the “action”.

Also keep in mind that across our trading desk yesterday there was a mountain of selling in gold and silver bullion. This may suggest that profit taking is alive and well and may become a roadblock to higher prices between now and the second quarter of 2025 for a guess. If Trump policies turn out to be inflationary the Fed would likely turn hawkish relative to its interest rate policy. Which may push prices of both gold and silver lower.

The resolution to these still developing crosscurrents will take time and patience. All things being equal I would not be surprised to see the prices of both gold and silver continue working off this froth with “back and forth” action and coming up with a middle pricing ground. For gold this might be $50.00 on both sides of $2700.00. For silver it might be $1.00 on both sides of $30.00. I still favor higher prices in both these metals if you keep the much longer term in mind.

Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Trump uncertainties push safe-haven gold to near all-time highs – “Gold prices soared to near three-month highs on Wednesday, trading below its record peak, fueled by a soft dollar and lack of clarity around U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy plans, which investors fear could trigger trade wars and elevate market volatility. Spot gold added 0.3% to $2,753.79 per ounce as of 9:45 a.m. ET (1445 GMT). Prices were at their highest since Oct. 31 when they hit their all-time high of $2,790.15. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,764.80. The dollar index dipped to a more-than-three-week low, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for holders of other currencies. “There are uncertainties with proposed tariffs and other things, and gold typically does well when there’s a large or even a moderate amount of uncertainty in the market, it’s a natural place where people gravitate to,” said Ryan McIntyre, Senior Portfolio Manager at Sprott Asset Management. Trump said his administration was discussing imposing a 10% tariff on goods imported from China on Feb. 1, the same day that he previously said Mexico and Canada could face levies of around 25%. Gold is often viewed as a haven during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, but Trump’s proposed policies are broadly regarded as inflationary, potentially compelling the U.S. Federal Reserve to sustain elevated interest rates for an extended period to rein in rising price pressures. Trump has not provided many details about his proposed tariffs, making investors question the aggressiveness of the move, and the depth of its potential impacts. “(Trump) has been perhaps just a shade less hawkish on tariffs as feared which helps – less/lower tariffs is taken to indicate lower inflation hence potential for more rate cuts,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $30.68 but hovered near a one-month high hit on Jan. 16.”

On the day gold closed up $12.60 at $2767.60, and silver closed down $0.07 at $31.24.  

On Thursday the price of gold was choppy but finished the day only mildly in the red. Prices tested support at $2735.00 in the early trade but recovered to session highs of $2760.00. A bumpy ride, but traders remain optimistic that higher prices for gold and silver are in the making. Why? President Trump is creating a nervous trade which may cement higher prices this year.

The technical picture for gold and silver also suggests higher prices are in the making. The FOMC will meet Jan 28th and 29th and the oddsmakers claim that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. So, the bulls will not enjoy that expected interest rate reduction this time around. January has not produced the big fireworks show which will be necessary to push these metals to all-time highs. But the trading mood is more optimistic than pessimistic. I would not be surprised to see all-time highs in both gold and silver this year. Perhaps sooner than later.

Reuters (Daksh Gover) – Gold slips as traders await clarity on Trump’s policies – “Gold prices dipped on Thursday after hitting a near three-month high in the previous session, while market participants awaited further clarity on policies from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,744.49 per ounce by 1246 GMT, having hit its highest since Oct. 31 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures shed 0.7% to $2,751.20. “Spot prices are flirting with technically overbought conditions, which suggests that a slight technical pullback is due,” said Exinity Group chief market analyst Han Tan. Gold’s relative strength index is at 64, suggesting that the price is approaching the “overbought” territory that starts at 70. “Gold is set to take further strides towards the psychological $3,000 mark if President Trump’s policies in turn boost demand for inflation hedges and safe havens,” Tan said. Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of about 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, starting Feb. 1. He has also mentioned potential tariffs on European imports, but did not provide specific details. Gold is considered a safe investment amid economic and geopolitical turmoil, but higher interest rates reduce bullion’s appeal as it yields no interest. The Federal Reserve will meet on Jan. 28-29 amid steady economic growth and falling inflation but is likely to face uncertainty from Trump’s proposed policies. Traders see a 96% chance that the U.S. central bank will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch. Trump also threatened Russia “and other participating countries” with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon. Russia is the world’s largest palladium producer and a major supplier of the metal to the U.S. Palladium added 0.5% to $982.25 per ounce. Spot silver dropped 1.5% to $30.33, and platinum was flat at $944.30.”

On the day gold closed down $4.50 at $2763.10, and silver closed down $0.57 at $30.67.  

On Friday the bulls were happy campers as the price of gold moved to session highs of $2784.00. As traders reacted to another round of Trump rhetoric. Gold is within striking distance of all-time highs because of the President’s recent comments on interest rates and tariffs. This latest bullish happiness is also driven by a weaker dollar reflected in the Dollar Index which has lost almost 2 full points this last week. Normally I would question such a large drop and suggest an oversold position. But the President is calling everyone on the carpet, including a few allies. And our unsettled geopolitical world could drive prices of gold and silver bullion even higher.

Reuters (Ishaan Aroa – Shitha Shivaprasad) – Gold glitters near record high levels after Trump’s comments – “Gold prices rose nearly 1% on Friday, lingering near record high levels scaled in October, steered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls to lower interest rates and uncertainty surrounding his trade policies. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $2,776.97 per ounce by 1210 GMT and was up 2.8% for the week. Prices are at their highest since Oct. 31, when they hit a record high of $2,790.15. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 0.7% to $2,783.80 per ounce. The dollar hit a one-month low, making bullion less expensive for foreign buyers. Gold’s move towards all-time high has coincided with a correction in the dollar, which is lower following remarks by Trump that suggest he may go soft on tariffs and settle for a trade deal with China, analyst Ross Norman said. “We see gold as likely to hit $3,175 during 2025.” On Thursday at the World Economic Forum, Trump said he would demand that interest rates drop immediately. In an interview with Fox News, Trump said he would rather not have to use tariffs over China. Zero-yield gold is known as a hedge amid political and economic turmoil and tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment. Trump’s remarks come before the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where the policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged. Spot silver was up 1.4% at $30.88 per ounce, palladium gained 1% to $1,001.51 and platinum rose 0.6% to $947.63. Platinum and palladium will likely experience some downward pressure in the near term, said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. “Moving forward, sanctions on Russia could influence the market, considering Russia’s role as a major palladium producer.” Earlier this week, Trump said he would likely impose new sanctions, taxes and tariffs on Russia if a Ukraine deal is not reached. All three metals were poised for weekly gains.”

On the day gold closed up $14.20 at $2777.30, and silver closed up $0.35 at $31.02.

Platinum closed up $0.50 at $957.60, and palladium closed down $9.00 at $1001.20.

Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, February gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,826.30. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,700.00. First resistance is seen at $2,790.00 and then at $2,800.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,761.00 and then at $2,750.00. March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $33.33. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $31.71 and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at $31.00 and then at this week’s low of $30.46.”

Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary

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