Commentary for Friday, Oct 24, 2025 – Today gold closed down $7.10 at $4118.40, and silver closed down $0.10 at $48.38. This week presented a challenge to even veteran traders as gold moved between price extremes of $4100.00 and $4350.00. Investors joined the race trying to figure out whether this volatility and deteriorating technical picture means the end of surging momentum. To me this looks like a typical whipsaw market, and the comments of Christopher Lewis (FXEmpire) are worth noting: “Gold endured a volatile week, rallying early before breaking sharply lower toward the $4,000 support zone. Rising volume suggests a potential top forming, with a corrective pullback toward $3,800 seen as a healthy normalization after recent parabolic gains”. I don’t see this latest fireworks show as the end of the world. In my opinion gold will continue to climb that wall of worry because that is what bullion gold and silver do best in times of uncertainty. Last Friday gold closed at $4189.90 / silver at $49.86. On the week gold was lower by $71.50, and silver was lower by $1.48.
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On Monday gold traders were presented with another roller coaster ride. Last Friday’s close was down $90.30 at $4186.90 and today’s opening higher by $156.00 at $4360.00! So, a very tough market to figure, especially in the short term. I would be happier to see gold cool to some degree, but this theory looks like a broken flush with expected lower interest rates, rising geopolitical uncertainty and insiders talking about $5000.00 gold. Underpinning these record prices in gold is the government shutdown, now in its 20th day as Congress failed again to tack together some kind of compromise. This market reminds me of an adage which claims that the more intractable the problems the higher the price of gold. And our debt problems are very intractable. Still, we are in uncharted waters which means keeping your seat belt fastened, anything can happen.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold climbs on rate cut bets, broader uncertainty; investors eye US-China trade talks – Gold prices rose by over 1% on Monday, buoyed by expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand, as investors awaited upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and inflation data out of the U.S. this week. Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,318.50 per ounce, as of 1330 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 2.8% to $4,333.10 per ounce. Gold prices notched a record high of $4,378.69 on Friday but closed 1.8% lower – their steepest drop since mid-May – after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump alleviated some concerns around U.S.-China trade tensions. Political and economic concerns are driving prices higher after Friday’s sharp sell-off, said CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian. “Our expectation is that the price is going to rise higher over the next several weeks and several months, and we wouldn’t be surprised at $4,500/oz soon,” he added. The U.S. government shutdown stretched to its 20th day on Monday, after senators failed for the 10th time last week to break the impasse. The shutdown has also delayed key economic data releases, leaving investors and policymakers in a data vacuum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. U.S. consumer price index data, delayed due to the shutdown, is scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, with another cut in December. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest rate environments. Investors are also looking out for further updates on U.S.-China trade talks, after Trump on Friday said a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping would go ahead. “I would not be surprised to see gold get to $5,000/oz at some point next year. That would be predicated on ongoing political problems and worsening political problems, which is actually what we have right now,” Christian said. Spot silver rose 1.3% to $52.53. The metal fell 4.4% on Friday, after hitting a record high of $54.47 earlier that day. Elsewhere, platinum rose 1.3% on Monday to $1,630.24 per ounce and palladium gained 0.4% to $1,479.51 per ounce.
On the day gold closed up $146.50 at $4336.40, and silver closed up $1.26 at $51.12.
On Tuesday the price of gold fell out of bed this morning with gold being down $250.00 as of this writing on a strong wave of profit taking and improved risk appetite. If this kind of volatility bothers you just step aside and wait to buy gold and silver bullion on the cheaper side. But it takes a great deal of sand to walk in front of this train, so my bet is that investors will continue to take profits and wait for paper traders to buy this dip. It does not take a genius to claim that gold and silver have moved too high and too fast. But if you consider today’s dip of $250.00 is only 6% off of gold’s all time high of $4375.00 it will help keep today’s fireworks in perspective. In the meantime, a little patience will provide time for this shakeout to settle. I certainly would not plan my investment strategy on one day of red numbers but drops like this are large enough to stagger bullish sentiment. But whether today turns out to be a major reversal remains to be seen.
Reuters (Noel John and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold retreats after record surge, investors await key US CPI data – Gold prices fell over 4% on Tuesday, as the dollar firmed and investors booked profits after expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and sustained safe-haven demand drove the yellow metal to a fresh record high in the previous session. Spot gold fell 4.1% to a nearly one-week low at $4,178.23 per ounce, as of 09:58 a.m. ET (1358 GMT), its steepest fall since November 2020. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 3.9% to $4,190.80 per ounce. Prices scaled an all-time peak of $4,381.21 on Monday and have gained about 60% this year, bolstered by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, rate-cut bets and sustained central bank buying. “Gold dips were being bought as recently as yesterday, but the sharp jump in volatility at the highs over the past week is flashing caution and may encourage at least short-term profit-taking,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. The dollar index rose 0.4%, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Wall Street looked poised for a calm start, with futures trimming earlier losses as investors assessed a wave of largely positive earnings from corporate giants. “Better risk appetite in the general marketplace early this week is bearish for the safe-haven metals,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, in a note. Traders now await the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data, delayed due to the ongoing U.S. shutdown, due on Friday. September’s figures are expected to show a 3.1% year-on-year rise. Markets expect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to benefit in a low-interest rate environment. Investors are also awaiting U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.
On the day gold closed down $248.70 at $4087.70, and silver closed down $3.67 at $47.45.
On Wednesday the price of gold saw some follow through weakness after yesterday’s colossal drop to the downside. Which is expected as this market tries to steady itself. The price of gold opened around $4140.00, dipped to the downside, found support around $4020.00 but the bounce to the upside at that point was nothing to write home about. Still, this reaction is not that bad, my working theory being that gold and silver were overbought. This correction is not only good, but it may also be the first step in developing a more stable market over the next few years. So, are the bulls out of the woods? Probably a bit too soon to be aggressive but this significant weakness in gold and silver offers the investor an opportunity to consider bargain hunting. It also gives less aggressive folks time to stop, take a breath and develop a more realistic outlook for the metals over the next decade. If these unexpected fireworks are on your nerves step back and take in the bigger pricing. You may be offered cheaper prices next week. But in the longer run government debt continues to skyrocket. So, the conditions which created these record prices have not changed to any great degree and insiders are still talking about $5000.00 gold.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold extends fall as investors book profits ahead of US inflation data – Gold prices fell on Wednesday to a near two-week low, following their sharpest single-day drop in five years in the previous session, as investors booked profits ahead of key U.S. inflation data due this week. Spot gold was down 1.7% at $4,054.69 per ounce, as of 09:22 a.m. ET (1322 GMT), after rising to as much as $4,161.17 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.9% to $4,072.10 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab rose 0.2% to a one-week high, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive. Gold prices have notched multiple record highs and gained 54% this year, bolstered by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, expectations of U.S. rate cuts and strong inflows into ETFs. Prices fell 5.3% on Tuesday, after notching a record high of $4,381.21 in the preceding session. “Given the aggressive move to the upside over the course of the last several weeks, it’s not completely surprising to us to see a bit of profit taking ahead of the CPI report on Friday,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, delayed due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, is expected to show that core inflation held at 3.1% in September. Investors have nearly fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to benefit in low-interest rate environments. Meanwhile, Russia said on Wednesday that it was still preparing for a potential summit between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors are also awaiting clarity on next week’s potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. “We maintain a bullish outlook for gold and silver into 2026, and following a much-needed correction/consolidation, traders will likely pause for thought before concluding the developments that drove the historic rallies this year has not gone away,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a note. Among other metals, spot silver dropped 1% to $48.27 per ounce. It slipped 7.1% on Tuesday. Platinum fell 0.1% to $1,549.85, and palladium was down 1.6% at $1,430.
On the day gold closed down $43.30 at $4044.40, and silver closed up $0.01 at $47.46.
On Thursday the price of gold moved to $4150.00 in early trade, up more than twice the amount that was lost yesterday. So, to say we are on another roller coaster ride would be an understatement. This type of volatility may throw up a red flag which could undermine bullish sentiment. On the other hand, a cautionary tale like this is what this market needs, allowing investors to consider the longer term without bullish momentum pressure. There is a possibility that if this market does not stabilize the number of sellers may increase and damage bullish sentiment, in the shorter term. But like I said yesterday $5000 gold is still on the table because in the longer term not much has changed. Bullish gold fundamentals remain in place as the creation of fiat paper money and the subsequent rise in inflation threaten everyone’s standard of living.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Chops Back and Forth on Thursday – The gold market continues to attempt to find a bottom on Thursday, as we attempt to recover overall. After the massive selling, it is a market that is still a bit in shock. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have gone back and forth during the trading session here on Thursday in the early part of the day, as we are trying to find a bit of a floor after a couple of vicious days of selling. At this point, I think a little bit of a relief rally would make sense but be cautious. Moves like we’ve seen over the last couple of days don’t happen in a vacuum very often. In other words, there’s probably more trouble ahead. If we do bounce from here, the $4,200 level would more likely than not end up being a little bit of resistance. If we break down below the $4,000 level, then I think the market really starts to drop, perhaps heading towards the 50-day EMA at the $3,838 level. Gold, of course, has seen a nice rise as of late, but the last couple of days have really put some fear back into this market. That’s probably a good thing, quite frankly, because we had gotten so overdone that people on the streets were talking about gold and silver, almost always a bad sign. The US dollar has been strengthening this whole time, so I think we’ll have to see how this plays out, but there’s a good chance that gold is either going to go sideways for a while or maybe the trend is over. We just don’t know yet. But I think at this point in time, you have to be cautious about rallies and the first signs of exhaustion. I’d be nervous after the type of drops we’ve seen. If we break above the $4,400 level, that obviously would be very bullish and open up the door to $4,600. But we’ve got a lot of work to do to get beyond that. And quite frankly, I’d like to see it take its time. Let’s get it a little bit more stable and durable as far as the rally is concerned, if we are going to continue. Silver Rallies to Attempt Recovery on Thursday – The silver market continues to see inflow on Thursday, despite the massive selling that we have seen recently. With this, the market looks to bounce, but be careful, drops like we have seen rarely happen in a vacuum. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Thursday but then rallied to start to recover. The question here is whether or not this recovery will matter. After all, this is a market that has been absolutely pummeled over the last couple of days. And I think you have a problem with the idea of this volatility, perhaps causing massive amounts of problems with stability, this stability that has gone missing from the market. I think, really at this point it is going to continue to be the main story here with the $47 level offering a massive floor in the market. And this would be an area that we have to defend. If we cannot defend this area, I think you’ve got a real problem. I think more likely than not, we start to unwind the overall trend. One problem that I think you need to keep in mind is that moves like this don’t happen in a vacuum, given the type of selling we’ve seen. I’d be very cautious here. I think this could just end up being a uh short-term relief rally. The type of selling that occurred, like I said, best case scenario, we may stabilize for a while, but I think the impulsive parabolic move is all but done at this point. The $50 level above will be a major area of contention. If we can’t get above $50, that might be your clue that the trend is about to change.
On the day gold closed up $81.10 at $4125.50, and silver closed up $1.02 at $48.48.
On Friday gold traders had to once again deal with severe up and down pricing as gold moved between support ($4050.00) and overhead resistance ($4130.00). But the investment jury is still out when it comes to the question of further downside losses. Investors will get better insight if they view the monthly gold pricing chart. A month ago, gold rose quickly from $3900.00 to record highs, threatening $4382.00. But in my opinion became unstable at these levels. If you look at gold’s monthly chart you will see a bearish double top. And then the downward dive to short term support at $4100.00. The question on everyone’s mind is typical when a long term bullish trend is threatened. Will we see further losses or is this simply a longer term transition which will cool prices and provide some relief from overhyped momentum pricing? Inflation numbers are improving but not enough to give anyone, including the FOMC, a good feeling that inflation is in the rear window. But with insiders calling for an interest rate cut next week and again in December it is difficult to believe that prices will continue to trend significantly lower.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold trims losses after US inflation data; set to end nine-week win streak – Gold prices pared losses on Friday after slightly softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week but was still set for its first weekly loss in ten. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,115.03 per ounce by 09:26 a.m. ET (1326 GMT), after falling nearly 2% earlier in the session. The price is down 3.1% for the week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4% to $4,130.50 per ounce. “Gold and silver jump as September core CPI comes in lower than expectations but it’s likely insufficient to entirely blunt this week’s selloff. Price action suggests that gold and, especially silver, need another leg lower before consolidation,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Spot gold notched a record high of $4,381.21 on Monday, but has fallen over 6% since, as investors booked profits and signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions dented safe-haven demand. Spot silver was down 0.6% at $48.61/oz, on track for a weekly loss of 6.3%. Labor Department data showed that U.S. consumer prices rose 3.0% in the 12 months through September, slightly below economists’ expectations of a 3.1% increase. Traders are almost fully pricing in a rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s meeting next week, with another expected in December. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Meanwhile, the White House confirmed on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next week, ahead of the November 1 deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. “If (gold prices) fall below $4,000, we’re going to continue to see more of a dramatic washout in the market, perhaps down to $3,850, the next major support level,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Bullion has gained 55% this year, on geopolitical and trade tensions, robust central bank buying, and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts among other factors. Elsewhere, platinum slipped 1.2% to $1,606.75 and palladium lost 0.6% to $1,447.93.
On the day gold closed down $7.10 at $4118.40, and silver closed down $0.10 at $48.38.
Platinum closed up $6.30 at $1593.90, and palladium closed down $7.30 at $1463.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a minor bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,159.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $4,175.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,066.70 and then at this week’s low of $4,021.20. The silver market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a minor bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $48.76 and then at $49.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $46.82 and then at $46.00.
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