Commentary for Friday, April 25, 2025 – Today gold closed down $49.60 at $3282.40, and silver closed down $0.49 at $32.99. The price of gold drifted lower on the open, finding some support around $3270.00 and finishing the day in the red. It appears traders are still cautious, fearing further downside in the shorter term. The reasoning here is that Trumpism and tariffs created these record prices and now that the tariff wars are deescalating the price of gold may further weaken. At the same time, the price of silver promises higher prices at least technically, and is supported by fresh industrial uses. So, for now investors continue to look at a mixed bag. Still, how much downside can the metals have in uncertain geopolitical times? Trump and Putin are still barking at each other – a bullish plus. At the same time, China is suggesting a tariff deal makes sense – a bearish minus. Last Friday gold closed at $3308.70 / silver at $32.42. On the week gold was down $26.30, and silver was up $0.57.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday I’m not surprised to see that gold again made all-time highs, over the Easter holiday, driven by a weaker dollar. The Dollar Index lost 2 points since last week. This mayhem has been created and intensified as Trump doubles down on his tariff policy. And risk aversion continues to drive safe haven demand for gold. It is difficult to see why silver is having a bit of trouble completely joining this bullish party. I do not, however, see this as a big negative in the gold market which is generally sideways to higher as the world faces increased tension.
Some experts see this as an old bull market and expect prices to cool. I have said for some time that it would be good if this market cooled down. It would give gold a chance to consolidate.
At the same time, let’s not overlook your investment “options”. The higher gold goes in price the greater the possibility of it becoming unstable in the shorter term. Investors should even expect volatile swings in the opposite direction. So, taking a small profit makes sense occasionally. Still, profit taking does not seem to be slowing down this roaring bull, at least for the time being.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Daksh Grover) – Gold extends record run, breaks above $3,400/oz on safe-haven rush – “Gold surged above $3,400 to a new record high on Monday, as the dollar weakened and uncertainty over the economic impact of U.S.-China trade tensions spurred demand for safe-haven bullion. Spot gold rose 2.6% to $3,414.91 an ounce at 09:26 a.m. ET (1326 GMT). Prices hit a record high of $3,424.25 earlier in the session. The dollar tumbled as investor confidence in the U.S. economy took another hit over President Trump’s comments about Federal Reserve chairman Powell. A weaker dollar makes bullion more appealing for other currency holders. On the trade war front, China accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the U.S. at its expense. “As tariff tensions continue to move at a fevered pitch, we continue to see gold prices move to the upside as a safe haven response,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “There’ll be pullbacks and profit-taking at times, but we still believe in the underlying trend to be on sideways to higher trajectory.” Gold, which is considered a hedge against uncertainties and known to be a highly liquid asset, has scaled multiple record highs and gained more than $700 since the start of 2025. It surpassed $3,300 last Wednesday and its strong momentum pushed it up by another $100 in just a few days. “These much bigger daily price moves in gold are one early clue this mature bull market run is close to climaxing and that a near-term market top may be close at hand, from a time perspective, more so than a price perspective,” said Jim Wyckoff, analyst at Kitco Metals. Among other metals, spot silver added 0.8% to $32.87 an ounce, platinum was down 0.6% at $961.63 and palladium slipped 3% to $933.02.”
On the day gold closed up $97.50 at $3406.20, and silver closed up $0.08 at $32.50.
On Tuesday the price of gold challenged $3500.00 today and while traders sold this strength it finished the day only mildly in the red. This may be significant in hindsight. You saw short term profit taking after yesterday’s big jump to the upside. There is a lot of noise at current levels but hold your focus, the important point is that gold recaptured the $3400.00 level. Which figures as trader sensitivity increases as the IMF downgrades the US economy by a percentage point, over tariff blowback. Profit taking as noted becomes a more important part as the physical and paper trade become cautious. Trump/Powell controversy over interest rates creates confusion. Because of this quickly changing picture I would not be surprised to see gold and silver prices consolidate around current levels. Still, investors should keep in mind that we are in the middle of one of the most powerful bull markets on record. I don’t believe there is even a small chance that Trump will distract Powell away from his main concern, which is inflation. But the ongoing drama between these two important officials suggest they would make good poker players.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold hits $3,500 per ounce as investors flock to safety – “Gold extended its record run on Tuesday, breaching $3,500 per ounce, as weakness in the dollar, U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve and trade war fears boosted demand for the safe-haven asset. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,440.51 an ounce by 09:21 a.m. EDT (1321 GMT), after rising as much as 2.2% to $3,500.05 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.9% to $3,454.60. “Gold is continuing to find buyers on any short-term dips, and it is really difficult to say how much further it can go. Momentum is clearly strong, which is discouraging investors or traders from selling gold significantly,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. “The primary driver of gold is undoubtedly ongoing trade tensions. The standoff between the U.S. and China has created the kind of economic fog that keeps risk assets on edge and gold bulls firmly in control.” Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has risen more than 30% so far this year, owing to central bank buying and escalating trade tension between the U.S. and China. Adding to tensions in the market, Trump ramped up his criticism of Fed chief Jerome Powell on Monday and demanded to cut interest rates, which rattled financial markets and sent the dollar lower. “I think the uncertainty with respect to tariffs is the main catalyst for currency depreciation pressures in Asia, which is ultimately one of the main fundamental drivers for gold buying activity,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. Traders will look to speeches by several Fed officials later this week, hoping for insights into future monetary policy amid the concerns about the central bank’s independence. Meanwhile, gold’s relative strength index (RSI) stands at 79, indicating that the metal is overbought. Spot silver rose 0.3% at $32.63 an ounce, platinum was steady at $962.36, and palladium jumped 1.4% to $940.”
On the day gold closed down $5.40 at $3400.80, and silver closed up $0.38 at $32.88.
On Wednesday the price of gold basically collapsed, closing seriously in the red for the day. This kind of move should be expected but kept in perspective. The close for today is approximately the price gold was just a week ago. And the higher gold goes in price the better the chance of large corrections. The lesson here being that it never hurts to sell a portion of your bullion gold or silver in the heat of the action. Cash is always a good asset, especially in the short term. But this momentum play will give traders a better feeling of what to expect in the next several months. Everyone should be confused and wondering whether today’s weakness is the harbinger of things to come? The elephant in the living room is whether today is the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning to quote Churchill? Most should not be too pessimistic because gold and silver bullion are around all-time highs. That’s good because sellers who do sell tend to represent the “weaker hands” position. They make this market more stable over the longer term and better prepared to move to fresh new highs over the next decade.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel and Daksh Grover) – Gold falls 2% as Trump comments on Fed and China boost risk sentiment – “Gold on Wednesday extended its retreat from an all-time high, as appetite for riskier assets improved after President Donald Trump said he has no plans to fire the U.S. central bank chief and also signaled progress with China on the tariff front. Spot gold slipped 2.2% at $3,305.79 an ounce by 09:23 a.m. ET (1323 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,500.05 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures dropped 2.9% to $3,320.40. “The market is starting to move past the tariff crash. You’re going to see a broad rotation out of some of the safe haven assets back chasing some of the specific names like Apple, Tesla,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Sentiment in wider financial markets improved and the dollar rebounded after President Trump backed off from threats to fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell after days of intensifying criticism of the central bank chief for not cutting interest rates. Trump also expressed optimism that he would make progress with China that would lower tariffs substantially but also warned that “if they don’t make a deal, we’ll set the deal”. Gold, used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has gained more than 26% since the start of 2025, boosted by central bank buying, tariff war fears and strong investment demand. “From a technical perspective, the blowout top around $3,500 and sharp reversal has, in the short term, raised the risk of a deeper correction,” Saxo bank Ole Hansen said in a note. “However, [the] gold price has so far managed to find support at $3,292, the 0.382 retracement level, which for now signals a weak correction within a strong uptrend.” Silver was up 1% to $32.83 an ounce, platinum gained about 0.9% to $967.61 and palladium rose 0.6% to $941.04.”
On the day gold closed down $124.50 at $3276.30, and silver closed up $0.64 at $33.52.
On Thursday the price of gold firmed to some degree, which suggests traders bought yesterday’s significant dip. It is a bit soon to draw any conclusions, but the price of gold may have been too aggressive testing overhead resistance at $3500.00 earlier this week. We are close to the weekend and these price swings have been aggressive so it may be next week before investors get some reasonable settling, and perhaps even an early trend, higher or lower.
But this is not a cautionary tale. Investors, central banks and hedge funds are on board when it comes to gold and silver bullion as Trump rolls the dice on tariff priorities. At the same time the debate over Iran’s production of fissionable materials is at least dangerous. Some believe they are close to producing nuclear weapons. So, this developing plot may soon turn into wild fresh safe haven buying. On a positive note, it seems that China now wants to end the tariff war with the US. And that may cool what some believe is an overbought gold market in the short term.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains amid bargain hunting, all eyes on trade updates – “Gold prices gained on Thursday after falling more than 3% in the previous session, helped by a subdued dollar and bargain hunting, while market attention remained focused on any updates on U.S.-China trade relations. Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,332.89 an ounce, as of 1300 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $3,500.05 on Tuesday due to concerns about the U.S. economy, but prices retreated on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump backed down from threats to fire the head of the Federal Reserve and appeared to soften his stance on China. U.S. gold futures firmed 1.5% to $3,344.60. “The entire market is one story, tariffs, at the moment. China is playing the outraged party… That has stocks down, dollar down and gold up,” said Tai Wong, an independent trader. “The gold run to $3,500 was a little gluttonous and it needed a pullback to digest. Gold seems likely to trade sideways for the next few sessions but we are in a bull market so significant dips will be bought.” In other markets, stocks drifted and a rebound in the dollar lost traction as investors try to grasp Trump’s U-turns. A weaker dollar and a risk-off sentiment tend to make safe-haven bullion more appealing to investors. China called for all “unilateral” U.S. tariffs to be cancelled, and clarified it has not held trade talks with Washington despite repeated comments from the U.S. government suggesting there had been engagement. Meanwhile, data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose marginally last week, suggesting the labor market remains resilient despite darkening clouds over the economy caused by tariffs. Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.6% to $33.33 an ounce, platinum was steady at $972.79 and palladium eased 0.6% to $938.50.”
On the day gold closed up $55.70 at $3332.00, and silver closed down $0.04 at $33.48.
On Friday the price of gold cooled, suggesting the bulls are taking profits. At the same time gold even in this unstable week presents a solid technical picture. Still there are naysayers creeping into the bullish dialogue, at least around the edges. TD Securities suggests that while gold prices may be overbought the precious metals are under owned. I have talked about gold and silver bullion being “under owned” for years and can’t figure out why the ultra-rich do not protect a portion of their wealth as the opportunity presents itself. If you ask why they should bother, the answer is simply to protect against the dollar going into a spin. It is amazing that even in these loosey goosey times that most investors do not consider this possibility.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold down 2% as US-China trade tensions ease, dollar rises – “Gold prices fell 2% on Friday and were enroute for a weekly dip as the dollar rose and signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions after a report that Beijing has exempted some U.S. goods from its tariffs weighed on bullion. Spot gold was down 1.9% at $3,284.13 an ounce as of 09:10 a.m. EDT (1310 GMT). Bullion is down 1.2% for the week. U.S. gold futures slipped 1.6% to $3,294.50. “The apparent detente on tariffs is negatively affecting gold prices … But so far we’ve not seen substantial liquidations,” said TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali. “However, we know that they’ve continued to buy the dip over the last few sessions, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory. “China is considering exempting some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs and is asking businesses to identify goods that could be eligible, according to businesses notified. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a de-escalation of their tit-for-tat tariff battle, saying direct talks were already underway. The U.S. dollar , meanwhile, rose and was on track for its first weekly gain since March, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, scaled a record high of $3,500.05 per ounce and has gained more than 25% so far this year, owing to US-China trade tensions and strong central bank demand. Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.1% to $33.21 an ounce but was heading for its third straight weekly gains. Platinum fell 0.5% to $965.75, and palladium dipped 1.5% to $939.82.”
On the day gold closed down $49.60 at $3282.40, and silver closed down $0.49 at $32.99.
Platinum closed down $6.80 at $964.80, and palladium closed down $16.90 at $931.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $3,509.90. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,200.00. First resistance is seen at $3,350.00 and then at the overnight high of $3,384.10. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,296.00 and then at this week’s low of $3,270.80. May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above technical resistance at $35.00. The next downside price for bears is closing prices below support at $32.00. First resistance is this week’s high of $33.69 and then at $34.00. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at $32.50.”
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