Commentary for Friday, Nov 14, 2025 – Today gold closed down $99.30 at $4087.60, and silver closed down $2.48 at $50.59 . This week investors must deal with several confusing crosscurrents. The first and probably the most complicated is the fact our long and cumbersome government shutdown created record highs in gold, but that bullish factor is now off the table. Which suggests lower gold prices, especially in the short term. Today is a great example, with gold falling out of bed and testing support at $4040.00. The second factor is the reality that lower prices in gold suggest less tension and less safe haven demand. Would it not, then, seem counterintuitive to expect the metals to make fresh highs next year? The answer is yes, it is not logical, but I still expect fresh highs in 2026. The reason being is that not much has changed with the “free lunch crowd” – that mantra remains the same regardless of what party occupies the White House in the coming years. Last Friday gold closed at $3999.40 / silver at $48.02. On the week gold was up $88.20, and silver was up $2.57.
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On Monday the price of gold was off to the races, reaching $4110.00 in the early trade before settling to some degree but still finishing the day solidly in the green. The reason the bulls are happy is the notion that a deal to end the government shutdown (in place now for 40 days) is in the works. The weaker dollar, falling consumer sentiment and fresh safe haven demand also helped the price of gold. Worth noting is this latest comment from Saxo Bank – “While we maintain that gold could approach $5,000 within the next 12 months and silver $65.00, we are more cautious about calling for an immediate return to the highs.” So, are we out of the woods yet? The smart money would say…not so fast. The reasoning is that this complex puzzle has many moving parts and it’s difficult to say what Trump might do next. Still, bullish sentiment is rising over the prospect of fresh investor money and possible new record highs in 2026.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold hits two-week high as weak US data boosts rate cut expectations – Gold prices rose 2% on Monday, hitting their highest level in two weeks, as weak U.S. economic data bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while a softer dollar lent further support to bullion. Spot gold climbed 2.1% to $4,082.17 per ounce by 1138 GMT, hitting its highest level since October 27. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 2% to $4,090.50 per ounce. The dollar index fell 0.1%, making gold more affordable for overseas buyers. “There are concerns regarding the U.S. economy because of the weak data, and the main focus remains on the dollar index,” said Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities. Safe-haven buying has also increased due to persisting trade war and geopolitical tensions, aiding bullion, Trivedi added. Data last week showed the U.S. economy shed jobs in October, with losses in the government and retail sectors. Additionally, U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years in early November, weighed down by worries over the economic fallout from the longest-ever government shutdown, a survey showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate advanced a measure on Sunday to reopen the federal government and end the 40-day shutdown that sidelined federal workers. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett warned in an interview aired on Sunday that U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter could turn negative if the shutdown persists. Market participants now see a 65% chance of a Fed rate cut in December. Gold, which yields no interest, typically benefits from a low-rate environment and economic uncertainty. “While we maintain that gold could approach $5,000 within the next 12 months and silver $65.00, we are more cautious about calling for an immediate return to the highs,” Saxo Bank said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 3.4% to $49.95 per ounce, reaching its highest since October 21, platinum rose 1.7% to $1,571.10 and palladium added 2.2% to $1,410.48.
On the day gold closed up $112.40 at $4111.80, and silver closed up $2.16 at $50.18.
On Tuesday we were closed for Veteran’s Day
On the day gold closed down $5.00 at $4106.80, and silver closed up $0.44 at $50.62.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved to recent highs ($4200.00) and silver to 6 week highs ($53.33) in the early morning, mainly on technical buying. This underlying strength in metals suggests a bullish price structure, especially over the longer term. Let’s hope that the much talked about “deal” to end this very long government shutdown holds fast. And even if it does not, the resulting rise is geopolitical tension will encourage fresh safe haven demand. So, there are plenty of reasons to believe gold traders remain optimistic. The primary one being that the US printing presses never stop creating fiat paper money…24 hours a day. This dismal outcome is the obvious failure of both parties to take necessary steps to balance a ridiculous budget.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold edges up as traders await US House vote to end federal shutdown – Gold prices ticked up on Wednesday, ahead of a U.S. House of Representatives vote to reopen the government that could restart the flow of economic data and set the stage for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,137.95 per ounce, as of 09:41 a.m. (1158 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $4,143.30 per ounce. “Gold is holding recent gains as the House votes to end the government shutdown today. Recent price action would suggest that any hiccups on House approval, like a delay, would cause both stocks and precious metals to stumble quickly,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Wall Street opened higher with the Dow at a record high, as investors cheered a likely end to the longest U.S. government shutdown. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is due to vote later in the day on a deal to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The 42-day shutdown has weighed on the economy and halted government data, prompting policymakers and markets to rely on private indicators to gauge the state of the economy. Tuesday’s weekly jobs data from ADP showed private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending October 25, signaling continued weakness in the labor market. Traders now see a 63% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in low-interest rate environments and during times of economic uncertainty. “Gold has consolidated for a little while around the $4,000/oz level, but the underlying trend remains up,” analysts at SEB Research said in a note. “Unless global liquidity suddenly tightens or the dollar makes a lasting break higher, the path of least resistance for gold is for higher levels.” Elsewhere, spot silver gained 1.8% to $52.16 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $1,589.18 and palladium was up 0.1% to $1,445.70.
On the day gold closed up $97.60 at $4204.40, and silver closed up $2.71 at $53.33.
On Thursday the price of gold tested the overhead ceiling at $4250.00 several times in the early morning trade but I think traders got jittery when this bullish climb was not successful and sold early strength, pressuring the price of gold, which found support around $4186.90. I would not read too much into this dip because most feel that higher prices are only a matter of time if the Fed lowers interest rates a second time in December. Powell has said that a second rate cut is not a sure thing, he wants to see if the inflation continues to cool. Most insiders, however, already expect that second cut so reasonably steady to higher gold prices are likely. Record high deficits, a strong technical picture and a weaker dollar may spark fresh save haven demand.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczk) – Breakout Above $4192.36 Signals Push Toward Record High – Spot gold jumped to a fresh three-week high on Thursday, fueled by expectations of rising U.S. debt levels and growing bets on another Fed rate cut in December. The market also gained technical traction after crossing to the strong side of a key retracement zone, signaling further upside could be in play. At 12:40 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4223.05, up $27.84 or +0.66%. The Record High at $4381.44? XAU/USD surged past the short-term retracement zone between $4133.95 and $4192.36, turning it into immediate support. The move positions gold for a potential test of the all-time high at $4381.44, especially if price action remains firmly above $4192.36. Failure to hold above this zone would be an early sign of seller interest returning. A break back below the 50% retracement at $4133.95 could shift the near-term bias to the downside, potentially opening the door to a deeper pullback toward the 50-day moving average at $3929.58. Debt Surge and Fed Uncertainty Driving the Gold Market – Fundamentally, gold is catching a bid on the back of rising U.S. debt concerns following the resolution of the 43-day government shutdown – the longest in history. With President Trump signing legislation to reopen federal operations through January 30, traders now expect a surge in borrowing. The U.S. deficit is projected to grow by $1.8 trillion annually, which has revived interest in hard assets like gold. “Precious metals are rallying alongside equities as traders continue to front-run dovishness,” said Hugo Pascal, a precious metals trader at InProved. He added that the debt implications from the shutdown resolution are likely to keep supporting gold prices. Fed Rate Cut Bets Heating Up – With delayed economic data now back in focus, the market is also pricing in more clarity on Fed policy. Fed Chair Powell cut rates by 25 basis points last month but has urged caution amid limited data. Still, 80% of economists in a Reuters poll expect another quarter-point cut in December, with traders citing weakening growth indicators and resilient physical demand for gold and silver as tailwinds. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and typically act as a bullish catalyst — particularly in an environment where growth and fiscal responsibility are both under pressure. Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Above $4192.36, Bearish Below $4133.95 – As long as spot gold holds above $4192.36, the bias remains bullish, with scope to retest the October 20 record high at $4381.44. However, a failure to sustain this breakout – especially a move back below $4133.95 — would suggest a short-term top is in place and could trigger a deeper correction toward the $3929.58 level. Eyes now turn to upcoming jobs and inflation reports, which could confirm whether the Fed has the green light to cut again. Until then, gold’s bullish tone remains intact. Silver Continues to Reach Even Higher Early on Thursday – Silver extends its explosive four-day surge of roughly 14%, but the thin volume behind the move raises concerns. Traders are cautious about chasing highs, with $50 emerging as the key level that must hold to preserve the bullish outlook. Technical Analysis – The silver market has rallied significantly during the trading session on Thursday as the outrageous move continues. This is a move that just over the last four days has seen as much as a 14% gain. This is interesting because there is a problem with this move that is difficult to reconcile, and that is the extreme lack of volume to get racing back to this area. This is very interesting, and the market is starting to give some back. Shorting silver is not necessarily the way to go, but the lack of volume is the one thing that makes this difficult. If you’re chasing a 14% move after a couple of days, sometimes it works out; other times you lose your account. It is a market that, if you want to buy, needs to pull back. It also needs to hold the $50 level, giving about $4 worth of wiggle room, which is a good thing if you’re bullish. It is interesting that the metal markets are acting the way they are because the dollar itself is not exactly getting hammered. So, it’s not an anti-US dollar play. It is probably a mixture of factors, including central banks. In the case of silver, it might even be the idea of EV and AI data centers. Silver is a very thin market with only a few major players, so many things happening at once can cause chaos like this. The lack of volume remains a concern and is typically a red flag, but this time could be different. $50 is key. As long as the market stays above $50, the outlook remains to the upside. If it gives back $50, that is probably a poor sign.
On the day gold closed down $17.50 at $4186.90, and silver closed down $0.26 at $53.07.
On Friday the chances of another quarter point rate cut now look like a busted flush. Comments from US Federal Reserve suggest that a second cut this year will now be on hold. If this is true, it is a very surprising move by the FOMC, really one out of left field. And the price of gold reacted violently, suggesting that increased volatility will remain in the pricing picture through next year. The only logical reason behind this story is that the Fed believes inflation is a problem and higher interest rates will remain in place. How this is going to shake out with President Trump remains to be seen as he already thinks interest rates are too high and Powell should be replaced.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold prices dropped more than 3% on Friday on a broader market sell-off, sparked by hawkish remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve officials, dimming hopes for a December interest rate cut. Spot gold fell 3.1% to $4,041.01 per ounce, as of 09:02 a.m. ET (1153 GMT). However, bullion is up 1.4% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 3.6% to $4,043.10 per ounce. “It’s this idea that we’re going to see a lesser likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December that is taking some of the wind out of the sails of the gold and silver market,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Equity markets tumbled, following the global selloff triggered by hawkish Fed signals. The longest U.S. government shutdown, which ended Thursday, created a major data gap, leaving the Fed and traders flying blind ahead of next month’s policy meeting. Investors hoped fresh data would show a slowing economy, giving the Fed room to cut rates in December, boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold. Those expectations dimmed as more Fed policymakers adopted a cautious stance toward additional monetary easing. Market expectations for a 25 basis-point rate cut next month fell to 53%, from 64% earlier this week, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed. Non-yielding gold tends to perform well during periods of economic uncertainty and in low-interest-rate environment. “When margin calls and liquidations happen, traders close everything to free up margin… This is what partially explains why even gold is down in this risk off environment,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, in a note. Meanwhile, physical gold demand across major Asian markets was subdued this week. In other metals, spot silver edged down 3.7% to $50.38 per ounce but was on track for a weekly gain, up 4.6% so far. Platinum fell 3.6% to $1,524.05 and palladium lost 3.3% to $1,379.18.
On the day gold closed down $99.30 at $4087.60, and silver closed down $2.48 at $50.59.
Platinum closed down $48.70 at $1555.20, and palladium closed down $49.70 at $1420.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $4,398.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then at the overnight high of $4,215.10. First support is seen at $4,100.00 and then at $4,050.00. December silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s record high of $54.41. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $50.00. First resistance is seen at $52.00 and then at $53.00. Next support is seen at $51.00 and then at $50.00.
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