Commentary for Friday, Aug 1, 2025 – Today gold closed up $54.50 at $3347.70, and silver closed up $0.24 at $36.79. Gold finished the week today with a very surprising rebound sparked by a weak jobs report which suggests that the chance of a September interest rate cut is rising sharply according to AG Thorson (FXEmpire). With a rate cut I would buy the notion that gold is heading higher by year end but without that rate cut higher prices in gold remain unlikely. Last Friday gold closed at $3334.00 / silver at $38.17. On the week gold was higher by $13.70, and silver was down $1.38.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold weakened reacting to a tariff deal between the US and the European Union which lifted the dollar. So, gold prices continue to drift lower after Friday’s rather large dip to the downside of $37.00. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, which will worry the bullish base and cap higher prices in the short term. Still, gold holds the psychologically important $3300.00 ground. A plus for investors although the trend has been generally lower in price these past 3 weeks. It is also worth remembering that Trump is a master at playing both sides of the tariff fence, which should also support pricing to some degree.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold falls 1% as US-EU deal boosts risk appetite ahead of Fed meeting – “Gold fell to a near three-week low on Monday as a U.S.-European Union trade accord lifted the dollar and risk sentiment, while investors awaited fresh cues on rate policy from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Spot gold fell 1% to $3,304.87 per ounce as of 10:10 a.m. ET (1410 GMT), touching its lowest level since July 9. U.S. gold futures were down 0.6% at $3,320.20 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose to a one-week high, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. “I think the more trade announcements we get, the more the dollar increases. These tariff deals are dollar friendly, lowering the allure of gold and driving the sell-off amid a risk-on sentiment,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. A weekend deal between U.S. President Donald Trump and the European Commission imposed a 15% tariff on EU goods, half the rate initially threatened, easing fears of a broader trade war. That pact came on the heels of last week’s U.S.-Japan agreement, while U.S. and Chinese officials will resume talks in Stockholm on Monday, aiming to extend their trade truce by another 90 days. However, a U.S. trade representative said no major breakthrough was expected with China, noting discussions would focus on monitoring and implementing existing commitments. “You’re not seeing a huge move on the downside in gold because the deals could still prove to be either difficult to implement or unrealistic,” said Meir. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep its benchmark rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range when its two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday. Markets, meanwhile, continue to price in a potential September rate reduction. Gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver was down 0.2% at $38.05 per ounce, while platinum fell 1.8% at $1,375.88 and palladium gained 0.5% to $1,226.25.
On the day gold closed down $23.70 at $3310.30, and silver closed down $0.14 at $38.03.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved mildly into the green on the open even though the Dollar Index has been moving higher since last Thursday. This suggests that demand for physical bullion may not be fading even though prices have been generally moving lower of late. There is talk that a break in gold below $3300.00 will create further losses perhaps opening the door to $3000.00 gold. This sounds a bit severe to me considering traders are considering significant cuts by the Fed in interest rates by the holidays. But it is the uncertainty of exactly what the Fed will do which creates the demand for bullion gold especially in the shorter term.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold steadies with focus on US-China talks, Fed meeting – “Gold prices held nearly steady on Tuesday as markets turned their focus to upcoming U.S.-China talks and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Spot gold steadied at $3,313.63 per ounce, by 10:05 ET (14:04 GMT). Prices hit their lowest point since July 9 on Monday after a trade deal between the United States and European Union dampened safe haven demand for the yellow metal. U.S. gold futures was unchanged at $3,311.60. “The lack of clear details and a defined outline of the announced trade deals… continues to keep market participants on edge,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Vawda added that a break below $3,300 could trigger a decline toward the $3,000 level in the medium term. U.S. and Chinese officials held more than five hours of talks in Stockholm on Monday aimed at extending their trade truce by three months, with discussions set to resume Tuesday. Analysts note that recent U.S. deals with the EU and Japan offered some relief, but talks with China remain far more complex and prolonged. On the U.S. interest rate front, the U.S. central bank’s two-day policy meeting kicks off later in the day, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged. Investors will closely scrutinize the Fed’s commentary for any signals on the timing and pace of potential rate cuts ahead. Markets are currently pricing in just under 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with October seen as the most likely starting point, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. However, dissent from two Fed members could shift expectations toward a September cut, which could potentially boosting gold, he added. Gold tends to benefit in a low interest rate environment as the reduced yield on competing assets makes the non-yielding metal more attractive to investors.”
On the day gold closed up $13.10 at $3323.40, and silver closed up $0.05 at $38.08.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved lower testing support at $3270.00 as the dollar gained strength, losing safe haven allure as US second quarter Gross Domestic Product increased 3%. The Fed left interest rates unchanged today as expected helping bearish sentiment. So, is there further bad news in the gold price tea leaves? It appears gold pricing will continue to move back and forth or perhaps trend lower as traders wait for some expected bargain hunting. The bullion gold and silver markets are very active reminding me of the shootout at the OK corral. We see strong buying and selling from the public. With enough buzz to suggest volatility will continue.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold falls as strong US data fuels expectations of rate cut delays – “Gold fell on Wednesday as solid U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, while also increasing the likelihood that rate cuts may be pushed back for the remainder of the year. Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,306.57 per ounce, as of 9:34 a.m. ET (1334 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $3,303.40. “The releases that just came out really look quite supportive for the economy. GDP was an upside surprise. Same with labor market addition. So both indicate that the Fed can continue to wait on cutting rates,” said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree. The ADP National Employment report showed U.S. private payrolls rising more than expected in July, though signs of a slowing labor market persisted. Separately, a Commerce Department report showed second‑quarter GDP grew 3%, beating forecasts of 2.4% in a Reuters poll. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged later in the day, resisting pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for cuts. Traders currently see a 60% chance of the Fed cutting rates in September versus 66% before the data. Market participants will be parsing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments due at 2:30 ET (1830 GMT) for any nuance on the timing and trajectory of policy shifts. Shah noted that the louder the administration voices its distaste for current policymaking, the more likely it is to drive gold prices. Gold tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment and during periods of uncertainty. On the trade front, U.S. and China agreed to extend their 90‑day tariff truce following two days of what were described as constructive talks in Stockholm. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 1.5% to $37.61 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.1% to $1,380.25 and palladium was down 0.5% to $1,251.88.”
On the day gold closed down $27.60 at $3295.80, and silver closed down $0.51 at $37.57.
On Thursday the price of gold moved back above $3300.00 but the response was muted, and traders then sold this small rally again testing support around $3280.00. Solid US economic news would suggest the Fed can drag its feet relative to cutting interest rates which is of course a negative for the bullish gold scenario. This looks like a continuation of the consolidation pattern which has been in place for some time. Investors and traders are buying time, waiting for fresh news which might provide the spark needed to move the pricing needle one way or the other.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Choppy Behavior – “The gold market continues to see a lot of back and forth trading, as we are looking likely to be stuck in a range for the summer, which is quite typical truth be told. At this point in time, the rangebound traders will be the happiest. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially gapped lower to kick off the Thursday session as Jerome Powell was a bit more hawkish than people expected really through the currency markets, and therefore interest rate markets, and commodity markets for a loop. That being said, it looks like gold has spent almost the entirety of the Asian and European session getting back to where it had gapped lower from. We are looking at the 50 day EMA underneath offering support and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we find ourselves just stuck in the inner consolidation of the larger action that we had seen for some time. The outer consolidation area, which is basically the range we’ve been in since the early part of April, has the $3,200 level on the bottom and the $3,500 level on the top. As we are basically in the middle of that, it’s very difficult to get overly bullish or bearish on gold. And I recognize that we are just simply killing time. This makes a certain amount of sense that we are essentially going sideways, working off some of the previous froth that we had in this market on the way up. If we can break above the $3,500 level, then the market could go looking at the $3,800 level based on the measured move, just as if we break down below the $3,200 level, it will not surprise me at all to test the $2,900 level based on that same measured move. I do believe that we will go higher eventually, but at this point we just don’t have the catalyst. Silver Continues to See Pressures – The Federal Reserve, being less dovish than anticipated during the previous session, continues to weigh upon the idea of a weakening silver market, as the US dollar continues to see strength at this point as the trading world continues to look at forward rate cuts, or lack of. Technical Analysis – The silver market gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Thursday and then dropped pretty significantly to break down below the 50 day EMA. We are currently testing an area at the moment that is pretty noisy. So, I do think the area will probably keep the market somewhat afloat, at least in the short term. But if we break down below the $35 level, then we will really start to see a pretty significant acceleration to the downside. A lot of this is coming down to the idea that the U.S. dollar is strengthening. And if that continues to be the case, silver will take it on the chin as silver is highly sensitive to the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar in a negative correlation sense. If we do bounce from here, the $37.50 level is an area that we’ll be watching because it was previous resistance and also became support. So, if we turn around and break above there, then it’ll be interesting to see if we can continue above there. All things being equal, though, I do think that short term rallies probably see negativity at this point, as long as the US dollar continues to show signs of strength. Jerome Powell during the Federal Reserve press conference was not very dovish and therefore not being dovish really rocked the market and it’s at the US dollar higher yet again. And that leads me to believe that we have to watch $35 because this may be the beginning of something bigger.”
On the day gold closed down $2.60 at $3293.20, and silver closed down $1.02 at $36.55.
On Friday the price of gold jumped to higher ground encouraging bullish sentiment, but some insiders held a different opinion. According to AG Thorson (FXEmpire) – “Precious metals are approaching interim cycle lows, and a short-term bounce could occur in the first half of August. However, I expect the rebound to be brief, with prices likely rolling over later in the month forming lower lows before reaching a more sustainable bottom in September”.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold rises nearly 2% as US payrolls data boosts rate cut hopes – “Gold prices rose almost 2%, hitting a one-week high, on Friday after weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls data boosted Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and fresh tariff announcements spurred safe-haven demand. Spot gold climbed 1.9% to $3,351.61 per ounce, as of 0931 a.m. ET (13:31 GMT), reaching its highest level since July 25. Bullion was up 0.3% so far this week. U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $3,405.20. “Payrolls numbers came in at below expectations, but a little higher than the market was printing. So, this gives a better probability that the Federal Reserve will cut (rates) later in the year,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. “We’ve got a situation where we have inflationary pressures continuing from tariffs and wages, yet job numbers are disappointing. So in that situation, if the Fed cuts (rates), that’s going to have a material impact on gold in a positive way.” Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 73,000 jobs last month, after rising by a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Market participants are now anticipating two rate cuts by year-end, beginning in September. Earlier this week, the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged in 4.25%-4.50% range, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell saying it’s too soon to say whether the central bank will cut its interest rate target in September. On the trade front, Trump’s latest wave of tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India and Taiwan, sent global markets tumbling as countries pushed for talks to clinch better deals. Safe-haven gold thrives during economic and geopolitical turmoil. Spot silver was up 1.1% to $37.14 per ounce, platinum added 0.6% to $1,296.58 and palladium gained 2.3% at $1,217.91.”
On the day gold closed up $54.50 at $3347.70, and silver closed up $0.24 at $36.79.
Platinum closed up $17.60 at $1304.00, and palladium closed up $11.80 at $1207.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained footing today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $3,509.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at $3,400.00 and then at $3,450.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,350.00 and then at today’s low of $3,331.40. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading fast. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above technical resistance at this week’s high of $38.51. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below support at $35.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $37.285 and then at $38.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $36.28 and then at $36.00.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.