Commentary for April 2, 2026 – Today gold closed down $131.70 at $4651.60, and silver closed down $3.13 at $72.74. The bullish hope of all-time highs in gold moved to the back burner this morning as our shiny friend dipped seriously into the red as the dollar and oil prices rose. And Trump said the US would continue attacks on Iran, spurring inflation concerns and bolstering expectations of higher interest rates according to Reuters. Investors should now consider a rather counterintuitive scenario based on the longer term, which is the hallmark of bullish sentiment. The Fed will likely drag its feet, holding interest rates steady and thus fighting problematic inflation. But they will be forced to lower rates slowly this year, supporting higher gold prices. Investors should expect a bumpy ride in the short term but take solace in the notion that traders are at least laying the groundwork for all-time highs in gold, perhaps this year. Also consider the inflationary and geopolitical tension present when gold reached an all-time high of around $5500.00 in Jan 2026. Most believe these same drivers are still in place. My best bet it that the world may be forced to sell gold in the short term to maintain liquidity, pushing prices lower. But it’s time to build the plausible reason behind higher gold in the long term. Last Friday gold closed at $4570.40, and silver closed at $69.36. On the week gold was higher by $81.20, and silver was higher by $3.38.
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On Monday the price of gold moved from $4490.00 through $4570.00, but traders sold this small rally and gold moved into the $4520.00 region, closing only mildly in the green for the day. This is a disappointment to the bulls considering that gold finished the day last Friday up a big $116.50. Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) – ‘Near-term trend still looks bearish’ for gold prices, silver producers ahead of 2025 pace – Heraeus – Central banks’ switch from buyers to sellers has weakened the bid beneath gold prices even as the price action suggests further bearishness, while silver output from key producers is ahead of last year’s pace, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus. The analysts warned that central bank gold sales have removed a key driver of gold demand. “The Turkish central bank has reportedly reduced its gold reserves by 53 tons to 772 tons,” they wrote. “This is as a result of sales of 22 tons with the amount of gold-backed currency swaps being 31 tons. While this is only one bank and others may still be accumulating reserves, it demonstrates that central bank reserves are underutilized in times of financial and economic stress, with gold performing its job as a counterparty free liquid asset.”
I’m not excited about Monday’s price action in gold and silver, but prices are higher as traders bought morning weakness. Safe haven demand got a shot in the arm because the war in the Middle East is running hot, and higher oil may promise higher inflation over time. Still, the price of gold is not creating much in the way of fireworks considering the US and Israel continue to strike Iran and Tehran retaliates by firing missiles in the Gulf region. Frankly I can’t believe this market continues to look undecided as Trump threatens to “take” the oil from Iran while the US troops in the area are now well above typical levels. For this reason alone, and the fact that interest rates may trend lower this year I don’t think the public will be a seller of gold bullion.
FXEmpire (Pablo Sinha and Rajendra Jadhav) – Gold demand improves in India as prices ease; China sees softer buying – Gold demand in India saw a slight uptick this week as softer bullion prices attracted some buyers, though many remained cautious and held off for further price drop, while premiums in China narrowed as physical demand slowed. Bullion dealers in India offered discounts of up to $61 per ounce over official domestic gold prices this week, down from as much as $75 last week. These prices include 6% import duty and 3% sales tax. Meanwhile, spot gold experienced volatile trading, flitting between $4,100 and $4,600 per ounce. Prices briefly touched a four-month low of $4,097.99 on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and growing expectations of hawkish U.S. monetary policy. “Falling prices are helping revive interest in gold. However, prices remain well above levels seen last year, and many buyers are postponing purchases in hopes of a bigger fall,” a Kolkata-based jeweler said. Gold prices in India were trading around 141,000 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, after rising to 169,880 rupees earlier this month. Volatility in the rupee and global prices left jewelers sidelined, with many waiting until the financial year-end to make fresh purchases, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. In Singapore , gold was sold at prices ranging from a discount of $0.50 to premiums of $3.50 an ounce. Singapore set out plans on Friday to turn the city state into a gold trading hub for the whole of Asia, with regulators and industry players working together to strengthen the market’s trading, clearing and storage infrastructure. In top consumer China, bullion traded at premiums of $14-$18 an ounce over global benchmark prices this week, narrowing from a $10-$22 premium last week. “Physical demand has cooled, reflected in lower premiums, but the market remains underpinned by central bank buying and quota restrictions,” said Bernard Sin, regional director of Greater China at MKS PAMP, adding that the unresolved Middle East conflict has tarnished gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. “China’s divergence is clear: while global headwinds weigh on gold, domestic resilience persists, sustained by policy, cultural demand, and structural supply constraints.” In Hong Kong, physical gold traded at par to premiums of $1.90, while in Japan, gold was sold at par with spot prices.
On the day gold closed up $34.00 at $4526.00, and silver closed up $0.77 at $70.32.
On Tuesday the price of gold was choppy to higher but finished nicely in the green on the day. Ernest Hoffman – Spot gold trades above $4,600/oz after U.S. Consumer Confidence rises to 91.8 in March – Neils Christensen – Gold prices push back above $4,600 as JOLTS shows drop in US job openings – Jim Wyckoff – More price gains in gold, silver amid safe-haven bidding.
So, there are insiders who are getting excited over the possibility of higher highs in gold and perhaps silver as crude oil prices continue to move higher, pushed by rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East as Iran fires missiles at a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai. In my mind gold and silver should already be making fresh record highs considering this evolving debacle which threatens to further entangle the US into a war which does not offer much in the way of short term solutions. But even with these fireworks the shop is curiously quiet. Which might suggest that the public is waiting to see if the international market hits the panic button, spurring safe haven demand or investors simply sell bullion and move into bonds until this storm passes.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold rises more than 1%, but on track for worst month since 2008 – Iran sets giant oil tanker ablaze off Dubai after Trump warnings – Goldman still sees gold reaching $4500 per ounce by the end of 2026 – Silver, platinum, palladium head for monthly declines – Gold rose on Tuesday, but remained on track for its steepest monthly decline since October 2008, as persistent inflation worries and expectations of higher interest rates due to the impact of the Iran war weighed on the non-yielding metal. Spot gold was up 1.4% to $4,572.89 per ounce by 8:50 a.m. EDT (1250 GMT), after hitting its highest price since March 20 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,588. The U.S. dollar eased but remained on course for a monthly gain. A stronger dollar makes greenback‑priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. The price of gold is down 13.3% in March, as higher oil prices triggered by the war in the Middle East weigh on bullion. The energy price surge has intensified inflation concerns and prompted markets to reassess interest rate expectations. Despite being a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, high rates raise the opportunity cost of holding the metal. BMI kept its 2026 gold forecast at an annual average of $4,600, while Goldman Sachs continues to forecast the gold price reaching $5,400 by the end of 2026. Iran attacked and set ablaze a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai, despite a threat by President Donald Trump that the U.S. will obliterate Iranian energy plants if Tehran does not agree to a peace deal and open the Strait of Hormuz. Spot silver rose 4.1% to $72.82 but was down 22.4% for the month. Analysts at BNP Paribas see silver trading in a range of $65 to $75 per ounce through 2026 and expect the physical market to shift into surplus by 2027. Platinum gained 0.7% to $1,911,86 an ounce, and palladium rose 2.8% to $1,445.74. Both metals were on track for monthly declines.
On the day gold closed up $121.60 at $4647.60, and silver closed up $4.37 at $74.69.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved higher from the open, challenging $4760.00 and finishing the day solidly in the green. Most traders are still very bullish but will keep an eye on the problematic war in the Middle East because de-escalation in this region could hurt safe haven demand and push prices lower. Mike McGlone (Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg) warns that January of this year may be a “generational high”. And gold will face a difficult hurdle created by its overextended speculative run at the start of the year as the metal stretched to its highest-ever level versus the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index and its greatest premium to its 60-month moving average since 1980. “Our takeaway is that gold’s parabolic 2025 rally – the best year since 1979 – was prescient of the Iran war, and the 2026 high may mirror the 1980s. The peak that year, at about $850.00 an ounce, held until 2008.” McGlone expects that silver’s rally to $120.00 in January could represent a historic peak. He noted that the price ratio of silver versus oil and copper reached historic highs during the first quarter. Across our trading desk the public continues to sell silver bullion while holding gold bullion.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold extends gains on softer dollar; focus remains on Iran war – Gold rose for a fourth straight session to nearly a two-week peak on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar slipped, while traders focused on the war in the Middle East and its implications for global monetary policy. Spot gold was up 1.3% to $4,728.75 per ounce by 1309 GMT after hitting its highest level since March 19 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 1.7% to $4,755.70. The U.S. dollar dropped for a second straight day, making greenback‑priced bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies. “Gold prices could move back above $5,000 per ounce if we’re on a path toward de‑escalation, as rate‑cut expectations could creep back in,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “The focus is on Iran and the Strait (of Hormuz) – how this conflict unfolds, and what the path forward looks like,” he added. Iran’s new leader has asked the U.S. for a ceasefire, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post. “We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion,” he said. Spot gold fell more than 11% in March as higher energy prices from the Iran war stoked inflation and led markets to scale back expectations for looser monetary policy. Bullion is seen as a safeguard during geopolitical turmoil and inflation, but high interest rates reduce the appeal of the non‑yielding metal. “An end to the conflict could prove a double-edged sword (for gold). On one hand, a lasting peace agreement would remove the geopolitical safe-haven bid that supported prices in the run-up to the conflict,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Lower oil prices and easing inflation also could revive expectations of 2026 Fed cuts, Sycamore added. U.S. private payrolls increased steadily in March, the ADP’s national employment report showed. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales rose solidly in February, but surging gasoline prices due to the war could crimp spending in the months ahead. Spot silver fell 0.5% to $74.70 per ounce, platinum lost 0.3% to $1,942.80 and palladium eased 0.8% to $1,464.88.
On the day gold closed up $135.60 at $4783.20, and silver closed up $1.18 at $75.87.
On Thursday the price of gold tested support around $4560.00 and overhead resistance around $4680.00 so a tight trading spread going into the Easter / Passover season. Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) – We remain bullish on gold over the medium to long term’ on diversification, safe-haven flows – HSBC’s Sels and Ku – Despite gold’s recent underperformance, the rise of cross-asset correlations makes the yellow metal more valuable than ever as a portfolio diversifier, and gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish, according to commodity strategists Willem Sels and Lucia Ku at HSBC. Sels and Ku reiterated their constructive outlook on gold over the next six months, and said the bank is maintaining its Overweight positioning. “Inflation concerns have also led to rate volatility and a repricing of monetary policy expectations,” they noted. “Policymakers are likely to maintain current interest rates for some time before easing later. We continue to seek quality yields from investment-grade credit and EM local currency bonds for income generation.” I believe patience during this volatility will prove rewarding over the longer term. Investors are not paying much attention to prices during this holy season. We will get a better idea of general price direction after the holiday.
Our offices will be closed on April 3rd. Wishing everyone a blessed Easter and Passover.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold drops on stronger dollar, rising bets on higher interest rates – Gold prices fell on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and oil prices rose after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would continue attacks on Iran, spurring inflation concerns and bolstering expectations of higher interest rates. Spot gold was down 3.6% at $4,587.55 per ounce as of 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT), after hitting a two-week high earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 4.2% to $4,613.30. The dollar rose sharply, making greenback-priced bullion less affordable to other currency holders. “The market is very focused on Trump’s comments, which so far offer little sign of a quick resolution to the energy situation,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. This is weighing on gold and silver prices, as there is less likelihood of rate cuts, he added. Trump said in a televised speech that the U.S. military had nearly accomplished its goals in Iran but offered no clear timeline for ending the month-long war and vowed to bomb the country back into the “Stone Ages”. Following this, oil prices climbed. Higher energy prices feed through to broader inflation, reducing the scope for central banks to cut rates. Despite its inflation-hedge status, gold struggles when rates are high as it yields no interest. Spot gold has fallen 13% since the Iran conflict started on February 28. Sentiment was also hit by news that the Turkish central bank’s gold reserves dropped by 69.1 metric tons to 702.5 tons last week, bringing the fall in the last two weeks to more than 118 tons as authorities seek to blunt market fallout from the war. In Asia, gold traded at a premium in India for the first time in two months as softer prices boosted demand, while premiums in China ticked down slightly as buyers awaited a deeper correction. In other metals, spot silver dropped 7.1% to $69.78, platinum fell 2.7% to $1,911.13 and palladium shed 1.3% to $1,453.70.
On the day gold closed down $131.70 at $4651.50, and silver closed down $3.13 at $72.74.
Platinum closed down $5.50 at $1963.80, palladium closed up $13.00 at $1491.40.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,300.00. First resistance is seen at $4,700.00 and then at $4,750.00. First support is seen at $4,600.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,580.40. May silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.21. First resistance is seen at $72.50 and then at $75.00. Next support is seen at $70.00 and then at this week’s low of $67.70.
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