Commentary for Friday, Oct 3, 2025 – Today gold closed up $41.10 at $3880.80, and silver closed up $1.60 at $47.60. The price of gold continues to draw attention as the government shut down and safe haven demand push prices to record levels. And $4000.00 gold is on everyone’s mind, likely before the holiday season. Yesterday’s dip was not a sign of weakness in this long term bullish market but an opportunity to take advantage of bargain prices. Insiders believe the government shutdown will continue for another week and this confusion will support even higher prices in the physical bullion market. Last Friday gold closed at $3775.30 / silver at $46.22. On the week gold was higher by $105.50, and silver was higher by $1.38.
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On Monday gold again powered up, moving to $3830.00 as investors continued to buy physical safe haven bullion. Silver was also hot, moving to 14 year highs ($47.00). Of course, this bullish happiness is helped by a weaker dollar and the expectation that interest rates will soon be lower. At the same time escalating geopolitical tensions continue to rise. And so, underscore safe haven demand. Government shutdown rhetoric is rising, thanks to Trump. It’s possible the government will shut down, forcing everyone towards a more balanced budget. The US debt ceiling is a joke, no matter which party is in the White House. This reality ensures more unfunded debt, which makes the excellent case for fresh record highs in both gold and silver over the next decade.
Reuters (Noel John and John Biju) – Gold hits record high above $3,800 on rate-cut bets, US government shutdown fears – Gold prices surged past $3,800 an ounce for the first time on Monday, setting a new record as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset on U.S. rate cut expectations, fears of a potential government shutdown and escalating geopolitical tensions. Spot gold jumped 1.6% to $3,820.96 per ounce by 09:32 a.m. ET (1332 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,831.19 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 1.1% to $3,850.80. The U.S. dollar index also fell 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion less expensive for overseas buyers. “Safe-haven demand focused on the potential U.S. government shutdown” is one of the driving factors behind gold’s rally, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “The dollar is under some light pressure in response to that, certainly supporting the precious metals complex.” U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with top congressional leaders from both parties later on Monday to negotiate an extension of government funding. Without a deal, a federal shutdown would begin on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Russia’s defense ministry said its forces had taken control of the village of Shandryholove in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Gold, which tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during times of uncertainty, has climbed 45% so far this year. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index came in line with expectations on Friday, bolstering market confidence in potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve at its October and December meetings. “The PCE data from last week was viewed as not standing in the way of an additional one or two Fed rate cuts… they continue to be a supportive factor for gold and silver,” Meger said. Separately, Newmont said CEO Tom Palmer would retire by the year-end, after spending more than a decade with the world’s largest gold miner. Rival Barrick also announced the resignation of CEO Mark Bristow earlier in the day. Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 1.7% to $46.78 per ounce, hitting a more than 14-year high. Platinum gained 1.7% to $1,594.90, a 12-year high, while Palladium fell 0.4% to $1,265.25.
On the day gold closed up $45.60 at $3820.90, and silver closed up $0.39 at $46.61.
On Tuesday the price of gold was again choppy, falling on the open and not finding much support as it approached $3800.00. But traders aggressively bought this weakness, pushing our shiny friend back to $3850.00 as gold finished the day nicely in the green. Early weakness was attributed to profit taking and later buying attributed to bargain hunting. Gold remains technically strong with overhead resistance around $4000.00 and solid support coming in around $3700.00. Safe haven demand in my opinion continues to underpin these lofty prices. I expect further “up and down noise” between now and the holidays. But it is difficult to see anything that can reverse this major move to the upside if interest rates continue to move lower.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold falls from record high on profit-taking; set for best month in 5 years – Gold fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits after prices hit a record high earlier in the session, while concerns about a looming U.S. government shutdown and increased bets of a Federal Reserve rate cut limited losses. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,805.99 per ounce, as of 0723 GMT after rising 1% to hit a record high of $3,871.45 during Asia hours. Bullion has risen 10.5% so far in September and is on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain since July 2020. Swissquote external analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said gold has pared gains on profit-taking after rising as much as 1% during Asia hours and “so far this is just a technical correction and we are not talking about an inversion.” U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday. The risk of shutdown for gold is positive because it means uncertainty and that the Federal Reserve doesn’t have clear data because that could arrive late,” De Casa added. Markets expect an over 91% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Fed’s October meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Investors now await a slew of U.S. data including Friday’s non-farm payrolls for further clues on the economy’s health. The U.S. Labor Department confirmed on Monday that its statistics agency would suspend data releases, including the closely-watched monthly employment report in the event of a partial government shutdown. UBS expects gold could rise as high as $4,200/oz by mid-2026 in its bull case scenario, the bank said in a note on Tuesday. Gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Shares of China’s Zijin Gold International (2259.HK), opens new tab rose 66% in their Hong Kong trading debut, after the company raised $3.2 billion in an initial public offering (IPO), the largest deal of its kind globally in 2025. Elsewhere, spot silver lost 1.7% to $46.14 per ounce but has climbed 16.3% so far this month. Platinum fell 3.1% to $1,551.80 and palladium lost 3% to $1,230.19.
On the day gold closed up $19.90 at $3840.80, and silver closed down $0.36 at $46.25.
On Wednesday the price of gold surged higher on the open, threatening $3895.00 but quickly settled as traders took profits and gold found support ($3865.00). The bulls still hold all the cards as our shiny friend notches another record, and investors continue to buy bullion. This upward trend, now supported by a government shutdown, does not appear to be cooling as insiders ponder $4000.00 gold. A number that would have been considered crazy not so long ago.
Reuters (Noel John and John Biju) – Gold rallies to record high on US government shutdown, Fed rate cut bets – Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday, lifted by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand amid a U.S. government shutdown, while softer jobs data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Spot gold climbed 0.2% to $3,866.10 per ounce, as of 09:16 a.m. ET (1055 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $3,895.09 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $3,892.80. The dollar weakened against a basket of other leading currencies, making dollar-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers. “The dollar has been under pressure because usually when the government shuts down, the mood turns quite negative on the U.S. and both the dollar and U.S. equity markets are one of the casualties,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. The soft ADP jobs report “is also not going to help the dollar. Yet another reason, slowing economy, meaning lower rates, all these things are bullish for the gold.” U.S. private payrolls decreased by 32,000 jobs in September, after a downwardly revised 3,000 decline in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 following a previously reported 54,000 advance in August. The U.S. government has shut down large parts of its operations, putting thousands of federal jobs at risk, after partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal. The shutdown could delay the release of key economic indicators, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. Non-yielding gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. Investors are pricing in a 99% chance of a rate cut this month, per the CME FedWatch Tool. “We are now seeing increased appetite from Western investors, both institutional and retail, as a case of ‘FOMO’ kicks in… Should this trend continue, we would not be surprised to see gold prices break above $4,000/oz,” SP Angel said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 1.4% to $47.33 per ounce, a more than 14-year high. Platinum fell 0.5% to $1,566.30, and palladium was down 1.4% at $1,239.97.
On the day gold closed up $26.70 at $3867.50, and silver closed up $1.04 at $47.29.
On Thursday the price of gold moved to session highs of $3890.00 but traders sold this rally in what looks like a profit taking round as prices then moved to session lows of $3830.00, perhaps helped by a stronger dollar. On the day gold closed solidly in the red. Today is Yom Kippur the holiest of Jewish holidays and traders were looking for thin volume and a quiet trade, which may have set the stage for this most recent weakness. Still world uncertainty continues to drive safe haven demand and many in the physical bullion market will consider this a day to bargain hunt. I tend to be a bit more practical. This past month gold has moved from $3640.00 through $3880.00 which means investors are enjoying a nice profit. Some will consider this a good time to sell a portion of their holdings as perhaps the price of gold is getting tired. We also see selling across our trading desk. And those who bought it years ago will take advantage of these record prices. Not a bad idea, especially if you want to manage or rebalance your investment assets.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers – The gold market continues to see a lot of buying pressures, as we are looking for the market to continue to react to the Federal Reserve cutting rates, central banks buying gold, and of course a lot of geopolitical concerns. Technical Analysis – The gold market pulled back just a bit during the trading session here on Thursday, only to turn around and show signs of life again. All things being equal, this is a market that I think given enough time probably goes looking at the $4,000 level, which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that people will be paying attention to and of course, will open up the possibility of a headline risk, and people piling into the market to take profit. Short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities. And the $3,800 level should end up being a significant support level. There’s nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests you should be thinking negatively. The ascending triangle that we had broken out of previously had a target of 3,800. We’re now above 3,900. And therefore, the $3,800 target becomes a pretty hard floor in this market, as we have seen it be so important a few times in the past. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, so there’s a permanent bid. And of course, you have the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates a couple of times between now and next summer. And if that’s going to be the case, that could help gold as well. Beyond all of that, we have plenty of geopolitical tension out there that can drive the price of gold up as well. I see no reason to think that we are not able to get to the $4000 level. Silver Continues to Grind Higher – The silver market continues to see a lot of pressure to the upside but faces a massive ceiling at the $48 level. At this point, the markets continue to be “buy on the dips” overall. Silver is overbought, but still strong in general. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been noisy to say the least during the early hours on Thursday, as we continue to look at the $48 level above as a significant barrier to overcome. With that being the case, I think we are in a little bit of a holding pattern and that does make sense considering that traders will be paying close attention to the fact that we don’t get the jobs report on Friday as maybe a reason to just kind of sit still Furthermore, when you look at this market, it is overbought. It’s been in an extraordinarily strong run. That’s not to say we should be shorting it, just that a little bit of a pullback makes quite a bit of sense. $46 is an area that I would love to see tested again and then proven to be support. Underneath there, you have $45. That being said, if we do just break above the $48 level, the market could go looking at $50, but historically speaking, every time we’ve gotten close to $50, silver falls apart. So, with that being said, I do believe we’re in more or less in a buy on the dip situation where you’re trying to find value. By value, I mean lower prices that confirm buying interest and support. With that being the case, I am bullish, but I’d like to be bullish from a lower level if I get the opportunity to do so. I do not want to chase this market, as it is so overextended.
On the day gold closed down $27.80 at $3839.70, and silver closed down $1.29 at $46.00.
On Friday the price of gold rose again which makes for the 7th straight week of higher prices in this still developing bullish market. UBS (United Bank of Switzerland) sees gold rising to $4200.00 over the next several months so it does not look like this roaring bull will soon be slowing down to any great degree. Because traders are in unchartered bullish waters the question of just how high gold may rise this next year is difficult to pin down. But one thing is sure, our shiny friend is doing what it does best and that is reacting to worldwide uncertainty. And with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East fast deteriorating, fresh record prices in gold should be anticipated, especially if the expected interest rate cut by the FOMC shows before Christmas. Goldman Sachs on the gold breakout: “We think the breakout mostly reflects: (1) rapidly rising Western ETF holdings, (2) likely central bank demand re-accelerating after the seasonal summer lull, and (3) to a lesser extent stronger speculative positioning”.
Reuters (Noel Johns and John Biju) – Gold set for seventh straight weekly rise on US shutdown woes, rate cut bets – Gold prices firmed on Friday, poised for a seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by growing concerns over the economic impact of a prolonged government shutdown and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,874.66 per ounce by 09:13 a.m. ET (1313 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,896.49 on Thursday. Prices have gained 3.1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.8% to $3,899.1 per ounce. “I think the longer the government stays shut down, that’s going to be a steady bullish element for the gold market. If they happen to have a surprise weekend agreement to open the government back up, that would probably be a bearish element,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. The U.S. Senate will vote again on dueling Democratic and Republican plans to end a government shutdown now entering its third day, though there is no sign that either plan will win passage. The key U.S. non-farm payrolls report, originally slated for release on Friday, has been postponed, leaving investors to lean on alternative indicators that point to a cooling labor market and sustain expectations of an imminent rate cut. Investors are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in October and a 90% likelihood of another similar cut in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and has risen over 47% so far this year. UBS in a note said it expects gold to rise to $4,200 per ounce over the coming months as the “opportunity cost of holding gold is falling thanks to declining real interest rates in the U.S., while expectations of further broad U.S. dollar weakness are another tailwind for gold.” Elsewhere, spot silver climbed 1.4% to $47.63 per ounce, platinum rose 1.9% to $1,599.01 per ounce and palladium gained 1% to $1,253.75 per ounce.
On the day gold closed up $41.10 at $3880.80, and silver closed up $1.60 at $47.60.
Platinum closed up $55.50 at $1619.30, and palladium closed up $33.20 at $1273.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. “Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,750.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s record high of $3,923.30 and then at $3,950.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,861.10 and then at Thursday’s low of $3,842.80. December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $44.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $48.01 and then at $48.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $46.55 and then at this week’s low of $45.71.”
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