Commentary for Wednesday, Dec 31, 2025 – Today gold closed down $44.50 at $4325.60, and silver closed down $7.24 at $70.13. I don’t think anyone could have guessed the price of gold would double from a year ago and the price of silver would more than triple. The price of platinum moved higher by 120% and the price of palladium 70%. Granted these markets have been choppy and volatile but the public did not seem rattled, remaining enthusiastic bullion buyers. Even our staff hoorayed big up days and booed big down days. For the record we finish this year with gold at 95% of all-time highs and silver at 86% of all-time highs. Last Wednesday gold closed at $4480.60, and silver closed $71.03. On the week gold was down $135.00, and silver was down $0.90.
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On Monday the price of gold and silver took a nosedive as profit taking was the order of the day. And this makes sense when you consider that gold has surged 65% and silver 150% this year alone. Of course everyone is considering the bigger question: Is this the beginning of a trend reversal or just a heathy correction? This is where the technical guys can offer some guidelines, and it would seem, at least at this early stage that traders still like gold but are throwing up a cautionary flag with silver. (Kitco – Wycoff) – “Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,600.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,300.00. First resistance is seen at $4,500.00 and then at $4,550.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,454.40 and then at $4,433.00. March silver futures see that today’s price action appears to have produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail, whereby the bulls run out of gas at the high and prices back way off to close near the daily low. The bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at today’s record high of $82.67. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at $75.00 and then at $76.00.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Precious metals drop amid profit taking; silver, platinum retreat from record highs – Precious metals retreated sharply on Monday, with silver and platinum falling from record highs hit earlier in the session, as investors booked profits after recent rallies. Spot gold fell 3.6% to $4,367.97 an ounce by 9:57 a.m. ET (1457 GMT) after hitting a record $4,549.71 on Friday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery also lost 3.6% to $4,387.40. Platinum dropped 12% to $2,157.09/oz after touching a record peak of $2,478.50 earlier in the session, while silver shed 7.9% to $72.87 an ounce, also retreating from a record high of $83.62 hit earlier in the session. Spot palladium plunged 15% to $1,634.04/oz. “All the metals moved up to recent and all-time highs. We are seeing profit-taking pullbacks off of those spectacularly high levels,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Gold has surged about 65% this year. Platinum and palladium are also on track for annual gains. Silver has outperformed all with a 150% gain so far, driven by its critical mineral status, supply shortages and rising industrial and investor demand. “I believe that the underlying fundamentals of (silver) supply constraints remain factors in the market and we still have positive prospects going into 2026,” Meger added. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were “getting a lot closer” to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Trump is also preparing to push for progress on the stalled ceasefire in Gaza when he meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later on Monday. Gold is a traditional safe-haven asset that performs well during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. It also thrives in a low-interest-rate environment as a non-yielding asset. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts next year and awaiting the release of the Fed’s December meeting minutes on Tuesday for further guidance on its policy path.
On the day gold closed down $204.00 at $4325.10, and silver closed down $6.63 at $69.86.
On Tuesday the price of gold rallied to daily highs of $4400.00 after yesterday’s disaster but traders sold this rally and our shiny friend settled around $4362.00, before trending somewhat higher on the close. But this kind of rally, considering the thin holiday trading, is not strong enough evidence to convince traders they are looking at a substantial trend. But gold and silver will likely remain defensive in the short term, and recoup to some degree given rising geopolitical tension and safe haven demand. It is interesting however that across our trading desk there are a few large bullion buyers, taking advantage of yesterday’s weakness. These folks are convinced investors who believe today’s prices will seem cheap over the next decade.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Recovers Early on Tuesday – Gold recovers early on Tuesday, trying to fight back against the disastrous Monday selling. At this point, it is also worth considering the lack of volume with the holiday approaching. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied quite nicely in the early hours here on Tuesday in order to try to fight the massive selling pressure that we had seen during Monday’s bizarre session. Nonetheless, I think this is a market that is going to continue its overall uptrend anyway. So, I’m okay with buying this. I recognize that it could be a very noisy situation, and it could be a very volatile situation. And you could actually see this market turn around and start falling again. But this is the right direction, and you have to start somewhere. Breaking Above $4400 – So, because of this, I think this is a situation where now that we’re breaking back above $4400, I think we could go looking to the highs. But I also recognize that you don’t want to get too aggressive here at the end of the year. If we break down from here, the 50-day EMA sits at the $4200 level, and I think it is your floor in the market at the moment. Gold is being hoarded by central banks around the world and retail traders following momentum, as well as many nations trying to shore up balance sheets in a heavily debt-laden world. It makes sense that gold continues to go higher. It is bouncing from a breakout point previously, and I think you’ve got a shot at this, trying to get to the upside, maybe capturing the highs again here in the next few weeks. I think we are going to slow down a bit, but we’ll just have to wait and see when the momentum comes back. Silver Rallies Early on Tuesday – Silver takes off early on Tuesday as traders are looking to recapture the momentum that was crushed on Monday. Technical Analysis – The silver market has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Tuesday as we are trying to recover some of the massive losses that we had endured during the Monday session. All things being equal, I think this is a scenario where traders will look at the $70 level in the futures market as a major floor. And I think recently I have said a few times that really what we need, if you’re going to stay elevated like this, is sideways action in order to have the market work off some of the excess and get used to these higher prices. Sideways Action Needed – Traders have to be able to look at this through the prism of whether or not the price is sustainable. Clearly, the momentum isn’t. But if we sit here for a while, market participants begin to accept the price. And I think that’s what we are looking at. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will look at the market from a buy on the dip perspective. And if we were to break down below the $70 level, I don’t think that kills the trend. I think what that does is have you looking for a drop to $65, then $60, etc. I think $60 probably is the floor at the moment. But even if the trend were to change right now, the floor in silver has definitely risen. We’re not going back to $12 an ounce anytime soon. I think we’re just trying to find the true value of silver, which has been suppressed for years, and now nobody really knows what to do. The one thing I know I’m not going to do, though, is short this market.
On the day gold closed up $45.00 at $4370.10, and silver closed up $7.51 at $77.37.
On Wednesday gold tested support at $4290.00 and overhead resistance at $4350.00 so on the last day of trading this year gold is holding a tight trading range. The outlook for gold, silver, platinum and palladium in 2026 is very encouraging, with analysts looking for fresh record highs in all four metals. Gold finished the year up 65%, silver up 150%, platinum higher by 130%, and palladium higher by 80%. So, to say the bulls are riding an enthusiastic and very bullish wave of enthusiasm is an understatement. Across our trading desk this week we have seen little profit taking as the public anticipates higher prices next year, given that interest rates trend lower.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Precious metals poised to finish 2025 strong with stellar annual gains – Precious metals are set to end the year with stellar gains on Wednesday, as gold posted its biggest annual rise in 46 years, while silver and platinum recorded their highest gains on record. Spot gold edged 0.3% lower to $4,331.73 per ounce by 10:15 a.m. ET (1515 GMT), after dropping to its lowest level since December 16 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery lost 0.9% to $4,346.40/oz. Bullion has surged about 65% this year, its steepest annual rise since 1979, driven by a cocktail of factors including the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, geopolitical flashpoints, robust central bank buying, and ETF inflows. Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and is considered a safe store of value. Prices have slipped from their recent peaks as traders booked profits after CME raised margins again on precious metal futures. “The short-term is very choppy and there is some profit-taking but we think the prices will continue to push higher into 2026,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. “For gold, there is a chance we could see $5,000/oz sometime next year and for silver, we can maybe get to $100/oz.” Silver has gained more than 151% year-to-date, its strongest year ever and far outpacing gold. Supply shortages, low inventories, rising industrial and investor appetite, and its recent designation as a critical mineral in the United States fueled the rise. Silver lost 4.8% to $72.83/oz, after hitting a record high of $83.62 on Monday. Spot platinum fell 6.1% to $2,064.21/oz after rising to a lifetime high of $2,478.50 on Monday. It is up more than 127% in 2025, also its strongest annual performance on record. Palladium inched up 0.1% to $1,612.25/oz, but was up more than 78% for the year, its best performance in 15 years. “PGMs will probably also move up with gold and silver. They tend to move with industrial metals and the auto sector, so they usually lag, but catch up as funds shift between markets,” Meir said.
On the day gold closed down $44.50 at $4325.60, and silver closed down $7.24 at $70.13.
Platinum closed down $197.80 at $2034.50, and palladium closed down $77.50 at $1629.20.
Thursday and Friday our offices are closed. Wishing you a Happy & Healthy New Year!
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,584.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,384.90 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,284.30 and then at $4,250.00. March silver futures see Monday’s price action still appearing to have produced a big and bearish buying exhaustion tail, whereby the bulls run out of gas at the high and prices back way off to close near the daily low. Silver also saw a big and bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart Monday. The bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at Monday’s record high of $82.67. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $67.50. First resistance is seen at $73.00 and then at $74.00. Next support is seen at $70.00 and then at $69.00.
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