Commentary for Friday, July 25, 2025 – Today gold closed down $37.00 at $3334.00, and silver closed down $0.85 at $38.17. Gold finished the week on a rather sour note as prices moved from $3360.00 through support around $3325.00 as China’s jewelry demand weakens and the dollar gets stronger. The trend this week was mildly lower but not exactly falling out of bed because at the same time China’s coin and bar demand was getting stronger. It has been rather quiet across our trading desk today and this might suggest the public is back to a “wait and see” position, the real key to higher gold prices being lower interest rates. Last Friday gold closed at $3353.00 / silver at $38.22. On the week gold was down $19.00, and silver was down $0.05.
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On Monday the price of gold surged in early trading, touching $3402.00 as the dollar weakened, trade uncertainty increased, and safe haven demand took center stage. The jury is still out as far as a possible interest rate change this year, a negative for bullish sentiment. But with US Treasury Secretary Bessent claiming that the Federal Reserve needs reassessment, the US and world markets have a case of the jitters, which also supported higher gold prices today.
The investor will have to decide whether this political bombast will eventually turn into tomorrow’s trading reality. But with Trump beating the tariff drum and insiders considering fresh new highs in gold the tension needle is moving higher. I’m less optimistic because overhead resistance in gold around $3500.00 remains tough and resilient. And I would ignore the fresh talk about Chief Powell’s replacement. But if Trump decides to damn the torpedoes I would not be surprised to see the bulls talk about fresh new highs this year and even $5000.00 next year.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains over 1% as dollar, yields ease; spotlight on trade – “Gold prices gained over 1% on Monday as the dollar and U.S. bond yields weakened amid uncertainty over trade talks ahead of a U.S. deadline of August 1 for countries to strike deals or face more tariffs. Spot gold was up 1.2% at $3,390.79 per ounce at 9:52 ET (1352 GMT). U.S. gold futures were up 1.3% to $3,402.40. The U.S. dollar index was down 0.4%, making dollar-denominated gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than one-week low. “With the August 1st deadline looming, it brings a level of uncertainty to the market and that certainly is supportive,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The European Union is exploring a broader set of possible countermeasures against the U.S. as prospects for an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fade, according to EU diplomats. On the interest rate front, traders are pricing about a 63% chance of a rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the entire Federal Reserve needed to be examined as an institution and whether it had been successful. Talk of earlier than expected U.S. rate cuts is building, with speculation around a possible replacement of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and reshaping of the Fed adding to market jitters, Meger said. Gold is considered a hedge against uncertainty and tends to perform well in a low interest rate environment. Data showed that the world’s leading gold consumer, China, brought in 63 metric tons of the precious metal last month, the lowest amount since January. Its imports of platinum in June fell 6.1% from the prior month. Spot silver gained 1.8% to $38.86 per ounce, platinum rose 2.2% to $1,453.17 and palladium was 3.5% higher at $1,284.46.”
On the day gold closed up $48.90 at $3401.90, and silver closed up $0.88 at $39.10.
On Tuesday the price of gold again powered up this morning, moving to $3425.00 as the dollar moved moderately lower. But I think traders may be caught up in yesterday’s momentum rally and would not be surprised to see this market eventually turn lower on profit taking this week. That being said, today’s jump in price was big so even higher prices may be in the offing considering the confusion between Trump and Musk, a strong technical picture, geopolitical tension and the resultant increase in safe haven demand. At this point try to ignore the political fireworks. This market is again buying time by offering a distorted tariff picture which offers inflationary consequences. The key to understanding gold today is the possible significant break above $3500.00. If that happens the next stage of this developing bull market remains in play.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Rally – “The gold market initially tried to drop, but as New York came back onboard, the buyers came in and sent the market much higher. With this, the market continues to look to the $3500 level above as a potential target. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially pulled back a bit during the early hours here on Tuesday only to turn around and show signs of life again. By doing so, gold looks as if it is trying to get to that crucial $3,500 level again, which is the top of the larger consolidation area that we have been bouncing around in since the beginning of April. The market killing time here is not a huge surprise. Quite frankly, we barely had much of a pullback over the last two years, really. So, I think you have a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is trying to find another reason to go higher. And if and when we can break above the $3,500 level, then I think you’ve got a real shot at this market ripping to the upside. I don’t have any interest in shorting gold regardless. And I think that each and every dip offers a bit of a buying opportunity due to the bullish nature of it and the fact that the US dollar is shrinking a bit, while a lot of people are concerned about global trade, which has them running into the gold market anyway. Furthermore, we have plenty of geopolitical risk. So, it all ties together quite nicely for gold to continue going higher. And we also have a permanent bid in the market in the form of central banks out there willing to step in and buy gold and add it to their reserve. So, all things being equal, this is a market that every time we dip, I’m looking for a bounce that I could start buying again. This time of year, is typically very choppy, though. And with that being the case, I think you have to understand that you’re probably not going to see massive moves without some type of external force or headline. Silver Continues to Power Higher on Tuesday – The silver market continues to see a lot of buying on dips, as the market continues to watch the $40 level with interest. The market continues to see buyers aggressively supporting silver at the moment, so it’s only a matter of time before something bigger happens. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially pulled back just a touch during the early hours here on Tuesday, only to find buyers underneath willing to get involved and push the market higher again. At this point, silver looks as if it is trying to get to the crucial $40 level, an area that’s been important multiple times in the past and I think will continue to be an area that has a certain amount of psychology attached to it. So, I think you’ve got a situation where you have to assume that there will be some type of reaction here. Whether or not silver really takes off above $40 remains to be seen, but it is worth noting that quite often what happens is we get a breakout in silver and we get a huge rush forward. Silver is a very volatile momentum driven market. So that is worth paying attention to. It’s probably worth noting also that the US dollar has softened quite a bit during the day. And I do think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that remains correlated negatively to the US dollar. And therefore, you have to watch what is going on over there to get a true feeling for what could happen here. The gold market is strong as well. So that correlation should hold. I suspect we have a scenario where plenty of traders out there are willing to buy on the dips, with $37.50 underneath offering massive support. The question is, can we break out of this range? It certainly looks like we’re going to try.”
On the day gold closed up $37.30 at $3439.20, and silver closed up $0.22 at $39.32.
On Wednesday the price of gold gave up yesterday’s big gains reacting to a firmer dollar and a deal made by Trump and Japan relative to an easing of tariffs. This, of course, reduces overseas tension and reduces safe haven demand for bullion gold. It also opens the door for Trump to negotiate with China and the European Union, easing geopolitical tensions.
Some insiders believe these events have set the stage for lower gold prices and safe haven demand, at least in the shorter term. At the same time traders continue to ponder the possibility of lower interest rates, which would provide the fresh spark necessary to push the price of gold higher. I believe the larger bull market in gold remains intact but would not be afraid to take profits along the way, keeping the bigger picture in mind – all-time highs in gold by 2026.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey and Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Safe-haven gold edges lower as US-Japan trade deal eases some uncertainty – “Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as a U.S.-Japan trade agreement announced by U.S. President Donald Trump lifted investor risk appetite, while a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields added further pressure. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,428.69 per ounce as of 1147 GMT, after hitting its highest point since June 16 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures also slipped 0.1% to $3,441.90. Trump struck a trade deal with Japan that lowered tariffs on auto imports and spared Tokyo from punishing new levies on other goods in exchange for a $550 billion package of U.S.-bound investment and loans. “Spot gold is paring some of its gains as the U.S.-Japan trade deal diluted demand for safe havens. The U.S. dollar’s slight rebound is also weighing on bullion, though it’s only natural that bullion bulls take a breather after the 3-day rally,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.Money. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.1% against its rivals, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rebounded from near-two-week lows. U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm next week to discuss an extension to the deadline for negotiating a trade deal, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Meanwhile, the European Commission said it remained focused on achieving a negotiated outcome in trade talks with the U.S. Gold, often considered a safe-haven asset, tends to do well during times of economic uncertainties and geopolitical tension. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.3% to $39.39 per ounce, its highest level since late September 2011. “Silver’s supply-demand fundamentals are attractive and warrant a re-rating of prices higher and now that it is at a fresh 14-year high, it remains to be seen whether the conviction is sufficient to breach the psychologically important $40 level,” independent analyst Ross Norman said. Platinum fell 0.4% to $1,436.38 and palladium was down 0.3% at $1,270.93.”
On the day gold closed down $45.10 at $3394.10, and silver closed down $0.04 at $39.28.
On Thursday gold moved lower again in the early trade testing $3355.00, likely on a round of profit taking, but there was then a round of bargain hunting which suggests there is more interest in physical gold bullion than meets the eye even though global tensions are beginning to ease. Trump criticized Chief Powell for not lowering interest rates, and while I doubt that he will hand out more aggressive threats the fact that the President is beating the interest rate drum will improve gold sentiment. It looks like we are still moving back and forth within a relatively narrow pricing band for gold. The key here remains the elusive $3500.00 level. If gold breaks above this overheard resistance the bulls are powering up, anything less they are still treading water. Although there does not appear to be much downside even at these elevated prices.
Reuters ((Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Safe-haven gold slips as trade optimism lifts risk appetite – “Gold prices fell for a second straight session on Thursday, as signs of easing global trade tensions dampened demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold was down 0.8% at $3,362.35 per ounce, by 9:41 a.m. ET (1340 GMT). U.S. gold futures dropped 0.9% to $3,367.40. The market is optimistic about trade deals — first with the U.S. and Japan, and now possibly the EU, said Aakash Doshi of State Street Investment Management, adding that strong equities and low volatility have weighed on gold’s upside. The U.S. and European Union were making progress toward a trade deal that may include a 15% baseline U.S. tariff on EU goods, with potential exemptions. The move comes shortly after Washington unveiled a separate agreement with Japan. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected visit to the Federal Reserve added a layer of uncertainty to the policy outlook. The White House confirmed the visit, which comes amid Trump’s repeated criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more aggressively. “Any potential interference with Fed independence is supportive for gold over the medium to long term,” Doshi said. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its July 29–30 meeting, but markets continue to price in a potential rate cut in September. A safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainties, gold also tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. On the data front, U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week, signaling a steady labor market despite sluggish hiring making it harder for the unemployed to find work. Spot silver slipped 1% to $38.87 per ounce, palladium dropped 2.2% to $1,247.68 and platinum fell 0.8% to $1,400.18.”
On the day gold closed down $23.10 at $3371.00, and silver closed down $0.26 at $39.02.
On Friday the price of gold was again weaker, which suggests that a general consolidation is still in place and prices may even trend lower. It is difficult to say how strong this downdraft might become at this point. The $3100.00 support is being talked about by professional traders, but I believe this is to severe considering gold’s 50 Day Moving Average is $3327.00. A reasonable strategy which has worked well in the past is to sell strong rallies and buy strong weakness. At the same time, it makes sense to keep a core position in both gold and silver bullion. Just in case Trump’s master tariff plan begins to crack around the edges.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Drop on Friday – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noise, and we are falling a bit in the early hours of Friday, as the market continues to see the same larger consolidation range play out. At this point, I am looking for dips to buy. Technical Analysis – The gold market has dropped pretty significantly to reach towards the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will watch, but regardless, the market here has shown itself to be somewhat interesting as we had an inner consolidation area between the larger consolidation area. With that being said, the market should continue to respect the $3,200 level underneath as a major floor. If we were to break down below there, that would change a lot of things, obviously. But right now, that doesn’t look very likely. To the upside, the $3,500 level is a major resistance barrier. And really, I think at this point in time, we’re just chopping back and forth. It’s very likely that we could drop even further and then bounce again. I like buying dips and I don’t have any interest in trying to get short of this market, even though I fully anticipate that it will drop. A little bit of patience will probably go a long way because, quite frankly, we’re in an uptrend. So, I don’t want to fight that. And I think this is just the gold market, either fairly quiet in the summertime, because this time of year is fairly quiet, or we’re trying to work off some excess froth. Either one of those are very possible at this point. At this juncture, though, I don’t think it means anything other than we’re just drifting sideways more than anything else. Eventually, I expect to see the market break above the $3,500 level, perhaps reaching towards the $3,800 level. Silver Continues to See Barrier Above – The silver market continues to see the $40 level as a ceiling at the moment, as we have pulled back a bit further. Also, do not forget the negative correlation between the US dollar and the silver market as well. Technical Analysis – Silver pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Friday as the market has shown itself to be a little bit hesitant to try to break above the $40 level. The $40 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure in an area that I think if we can break above there, then it’s likely that we will go much higher. The $37.50 level underneath is support from what I can see. And ultimately, this is a market that is very noisy. Therefore, it’s not surprising to see that we have pulled back just a bit. The silver market, of course, is very sensitive to what’s going on with the US dollar as it is negatively correlated to it. So, with the US dollar perking up just a touch, it makes a certain amount of sense that silver is not necessarily struggling, just that it’s giving back some of its initial momentum. And of course, the fact that we were near a major resistance barrier only adds fuel to that fire. I do think that ultimately, we have a scenario where traders are going to look at this and eventually look at silver as being cheap. And I don’t know if it’ll be closer to the $37.50 level or if it will be somewhere in the middle of this range because that’s quite common as well. All things being equal, I do like the idea of buying silver on dips. I certainly don’t want to short this market. It’s been far too strong. With that, if we did break down below $37.50, then you have to ask questions about the 50 day EMA, which sits just below there. In general, this is a market that I think once it breaks the $40 level should go much higher, perhaps to the $42.50 level based on the measured move. But regardless, like I stated before, there’s no chance of me shorting silver with this type of just vicious uptrend. When you look at it, the silver market has actually been in an uptrend for about three years. It was sideways a couple of times, and it’s very possible that we go sideways for the short term. But over the longer term, it goes from the lower left to the upper right, and there’s no way to dispute that. That being the case, I think you have to be bullish, and you just cannot short what has worked so well, which of course has been buying the dip.”
On the day gold closed down $37.00 at $3334.00, and silver closed down $0.85 at $38.17.
Platinum closed down $17.20 at $1407.40, and palladium closed down $33.60 at $1243.40.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are now fading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $3,451.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,376.60 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at $3,325.00 and then at $3,314.30. September silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $36.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $39.52 and then at $40.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $38.365 and then at $38.00.”
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