Commentary for Friday, May 9, 2025 – Today gold closed up $38.80 at $3335.40, and silver closed up $0.30 at $32.68. Last week’s volatility in the gold market seems to have carried forward into this week, even though the latest tariff news from President Trump was generally upbeat and should have settled this market down into this Mother’s Day weekend. An interesting aspect of this market, however, is the lack of bullion sellers at these elevated prices. We have seen a few large sellers recently but not many, which might suggest the public believes that eventually Trump policies will be inflationary. For now, however, a steady interest rate hand by the FOMC will present a negative drag for the bullish gold scenario. Sooner or later, however, Powell will be forced to lower interest rates if for no other reason than to avoid the possibility of recession. As interest rates move lower the stage will be set for new record highs in the metals. Last Friday gold closed at $3231.90 / silver at $31.99. On the week gold was higher by $103.50, and silver was up $0.69.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold spiked to session highs as the dollar weakened and safe haven demand increased. Today’s jump in price will increase attention and help bullish sentiment. But do not overemphasize this move to $3300.00. It only sets up the speculation that gold will once again try to move towards $3500.00, the all-time high seen in April. Today will put a smile on your face if you belong to the group who believe that the price of gold will eventually head for $5000.00 pushed by unabated safe haven demand. If you belong to the more conservative group, this market looks like it is or soon will be overheated. In my experience, guessing a short term top in gold is nearly impossible. The smart money will remember that there are still too many reasons to like physical gold bullion over the longer term. But in the short term I’m less optimistic, so at this point I would consider taking profits along the way, it’s a safer bet.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers – “The gold market has been bullish as of late, as the gold uptrend seems to be continuing. The gold market of course is a volatile market, but it also has long trends that come into play. This is a scenario where traders seem to be willing to take advantage of cheaper ounces. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied significantly during the early hours on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of upward pressure in general. The market pulling back the way it has offered a little bit of a buying opportunity for some out there. And as a result, it looks like we are now going to threaten the $3,350 region, an area that was significantly noisy previously. So, with that being said, I don’t know how much more upward momentum we have, but certainly I would not be a seller of this market in the current environment. The 3,200 level of course is an area that I think a lot of people will look at it as potential support. All things being equal, I am a bit cautious right now about getting too aggressive, but I certainly see this as a bullish market. I certainly won’t be shorting it. Even if we broke down below the $3,200 level, the 50-day EMA underneath should offer support. And I think a lot of traders would be looking at that as a potential buying opportunity as well. Keep in mind that there are a lot of geopolitical concerns out there right now, and a lot of traders will be looking at this as a potential buy-on-the-dip type of scenario. This has been the situation for some time in this market, and I see it as continuing at the moment. I have no intention of trying to “catch the top” here. Silver Continues to See Noise – The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, but at this point in time, it looks like the $33 level will be a magnet for price, and therefore I think the market will continue to try to get there. All things being equal, I still favor the upside but also recognize that there is volatility. Technical Analysis – The silver market has rallied pretty significantly during the early hours on Monday, as we are now threatening the 50 day EMA. The 50 day EMA being broken to the upside opens up the possibility of a move for silver to reach the $33.00 level. The $33.00 level is a major area of confluence that traders have been paying attention to multiple times. If we can break above there, then it opens up a move to the $34 level. Underneath we have the $32 level offering significant support. And breaking down below that opens up a move down to the 200 day EMA, which sits just above the $31 level. All things being equal, I think we continue to consolidate, and it does make a certain amount of sense where we maybe go back and forth and trying to understand where the next big move comes from. After all, the US dollar is negatively correlated to silver most of the time. But we also have to worry about industrial demand. So, I think there is a lot of different attitude influencing noise out there that I think continues to keep traders somewhat frozen. And therefore, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to keep silver relatively sideways. This might be the case for a while, as we have seen so much volatility that the market might just need to catch its breath for a while. Because of this, I am focusing on short term moves.”
On the day gold closed up $79.40 at $3311.30, and silver closed up $0.22 at $32.21.
On Tuesday the price of gold continued to surge after yesterday’s pop to the upside, so the momentum and technical players are doubling down as gold moved to session highs ($3395.00). This is not a reaction to this week’s FOMC meeting as most believe the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. But this latest excitement suggests that $3500.00 gold is off the back burner. Continued weakness in the dollar will also support higher gold prices as the Dollar Index has lost a full point since last Thursday. Most, at this point, consider $3500.00 gold to be a kind of “ceiling” so insiders will be expecting a round of profit taking and some settling. But the same group will privately admit that as Trump experiments with tariffs and other “balancing” ideas all time highs for both gold and silver may be in the cards before the end of 2025.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold rises nearly 2%, spotlight on Fed meet – “Gold prices rose to a two-week high on Tuesday, supported by post-holiday buying from China and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, while investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3,394.39 an ounce, as of 0936 ET, its highest since April 22. U.S. gold futures also reached a two-week high and were last 2.4% up at $3,403.00. Markets in top consumer China reopened after the Labour Day holiday, which ran from May 1 to 5. “The bull market is being driven by China’s latest gold investing surge, plus the ongoing bid from central banks wanting to cut their exposure to U.S. assets, most especially the dollar,” said Adrian Ash. The dollar struggled as investors began to grow impatient over hoped-for U.S. trade deals, making greenback priced-gold less expensive for other currency holders. Bullion, widely viewed as a hedge against uncertainty, has hit multiple record highs this year amid market jitters sparked by tariff developments. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday signaled that he plans to announce new tariffs on pharmaceutical products over the next two weeks. Earlier on Sunday, Trump had announced 100% tariffs on movies produced overseas. “We think there is increased participation from speculators in China. In the West, we think that despite the fact that prices are overbought, gold is significantly under-owned. Both of these factors should underscore stronger gold prices,” TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said. “Prices can trade up to $4,000 an ounce this year.” Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Fed’s upcoming policy decision on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks expected to offer clues on the potential timing of interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates decrease gold’s attractiveness as it is a zero-yielding asset. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 2% to $33.16 an ounce, platinum rose about 2.3% to $981.44, and palladium added 2.5% to $964.45.”
On the day gold closed up $100.10 at $3411.40, and silver closed up $0.90 $33.11.
On Wednesday the price of gold traded between $3370.00 and $3395.00, somewhat subdued after yesterday’s big jump to the upside. With the dollar being relatively stable this morning today’s minor loss will likely not dampen bullish sentiment. The Fed left interest rates unchanged today, a negative for bullish sentiment. But with safe haven demand underpinned by Trump tariff policies traders believe gold will hold recent gains and perhaps move higher in the shorter term. Across our trading desk we have seen some large sales as the public took advantage of recent gains. But investors remain net buyers and are particularly interested in our delayed delivery program. The most popular bullion gold is the US gold Eagle (1 oz). The most popular silver bullion products are the 1 oz silver round and the 100 oz silver bar. There remains little buying or selling interest in platinum, palladium, or rhodium but there is also little downside.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold slips more than 1%; Fed verdict on tap – “Gold prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday, pressured by a firmer dollar and U.S.-China trade talks optimism, while the focus is on Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later in the day. Spot gold slipped 1% to $3,395.29 an ounce as of 0957 ET. U.S. gold futures lost about 0.6% to $3,403.50. The U.S. dollar gained 0.2% against other fiat currencies. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for other currency holders. “China and the United States are formally trying to start a conversation on tariffs, igniting optimism in risk markets,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy. Gold, considered a hedge against geopolitical risks, has risen 29.4% so far this year. Bank of America said, “while we see limited upside (for gold) near term, we expect prices to push higher again in second half of 2025, potentially hitting $4,000.” China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in April for the sixth straight month, official data showed. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policy decision is due at 1400 ET (1800 GMT) today, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The market will watch out for cues on policy outlook. “If the Fed surprises and is a lot more hawkish than the market expects, we think there is strong support above $3,100,” Melek added. The Fed in the past had indicated that it was in no hurry to cut rates and market consensus is that there will be no cuts before July. Higher interest rates tend to pressure bullion as it yields no interest. Elsewhere, spot silver shed 1.4% to $32.81 an ounce, platinum dropped 0.1% to $986.15 and palladium edged 0.7% higher to $981.03.”
On the day gold closed down $30.00 at $3381.40, and silver closed down $0.58 at $32.53.
On Thursday the price of gold was again erratic, moving from a daily high of $3390.00 to a daily low of $3310.00. For sure another rough day for bullish sentiment. And the large dip to the downside suggests traders may be returning to a rather defensive market. These large swings in price are behind the latest CPM comment that gold prices seem comfortable between $3050.00 and $3500.00 as investors buy or sell on the latest news headlines.
There are other factors which may also cloud the long term outlook. Like Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments – “Our policy is well positioned. The costs of waiting to see are fairly low”. This remains the inside key to a perhaps developing downtrend. The US may not be as threatened by tariffs as it was a few days ago. Trump’s announcement that he has a deal with Britian and is now working on the European Union further support this developing downtrend. It would not take much to turn this bullish market on its head.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi and Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold subdued as Trump signals potential trade deal with Britain – “Gold prices inched lower on Thursday, ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s likely announcement of a trade deal between the United States and Britain. Spot gold was down 0.1% to $3,362.19 an ounce as of 1318 GMT, after rising 1% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,368.50. “The gold market has been very volatile. What you’re seeing are short term investors buying and selling based on news headlines,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group. “Prices could trade as low as $3,050 or as high as $3,500 on a long term basis.” Trump posted on Truth Social he would hold an Oval Office news conference at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT) about a “major trade deal with representatives of a big, and highly respected, country,” using all capitalized letters. Earlier in the day, the New York Times reported the United States and Britain are likely to announce a deal. Bullion, widely regarded as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, has surged over $300 and hit multiple record highs since Trump first announced his tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s top economic official on Saturday in Switzerland. Elsewhere, China’s central bank has approved foreign exchange purchases by commercial banks to pay for gold imports under recently increased quotas, two people with direct knowledge of the matter said. “Theoretically, this move should boost gold prices as increased demand from China becomes a factor. However, current market dynamics are dominated by developments surrounding tariffs,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. On the U.S. monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, as its policymakers grapple with the impact of tariffs. Spot silver was up 0.2% at $32.52 an ounce, platinum gained 1% to $984.15 and palladium rose 0.2% to $973.92.”
On the day gold closed down $84.80 at $3296.60, and silver closed down $0.15 at $32.38.
On Friday the price of gold saw a nice bounce to the upside as early trading moved to session highs of $3345.00. With the price of gold up 30% this year it is difficult to say if gold will remain firm and sentiment bullish as Trump seems open to talking about his recent tariff fireworks. If he continues to adjust policy, it follows that tension worldwide will move lower and so will the price of gold. With geopolitical tension in the Middle East and Exchange Traded Funds back in the game the demand for physical gold bullion will insure safe haven demand. In the long run Trump induced inflation should set the stage for record prices over the next decade.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sarah Qureshi) – Gold rises as dollar eases ahead of US-China trade talks – “Gold rose over 1% on Friday as the dollar ticked lower, while the market digested recent tariff remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of a weekend meeting between the U.S. and China. Spot gold was up 0.8% to $3,332.88 an ounce at 0919 ET(13:18 GMT) and gained nearly 3% so far this week. Bullion, known as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties has risen more than 27% since the start of the year. U.S. gold futures were up 1% to $3,338.10. The U.S. dollar edged 0.3% lower, making bullion less expensive for other currency holders. U.S. President Donald Trump said that 80% tariffs on Chinese goods “seems right” as representatives prepared for weekend talks to contain a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Additionally, on the geopolitical front, India and Pakistan accused each other of launching new military attacks, using drones and artillery for the third day in the worst fighting between the nuclear-armed South Asian neighbors in nearly three decades. “Obviously, the overall continued uncertainty in regard to tariffs remains probably the most significant underpinning behind gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “We’re not quite as favorable towards gold as we have been over the course of the past several months. We could be moving into a period of more consolidation or retracement for a period of time.” On the physical front, Indian gold dealers offered price discounts this week amid weak demand as a weaker rupee lifted local prices to near-record highs, while buying in China picked up after a holiday. Elsewhere, Trump’s trade policies will likely lift inflation, lower growth, and raise unemployment later this year, Federal Reserve Governor Barr said, leaving policymakers with a tricky decision on which problem to fight. Spot silver added 0.2% to $32.56 an ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $986.55, and palladium climbed 0.1% to $976.68.”
On the day gold closed up $38.80 at $3335.40, and silver closed up $0.30 at $32.68.
Platinum closed up $22.20 at $998.50, and palladium closed down $1.40 at $978.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above resistance at this week’s high of $3,448.20. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $3,209.40. First resistance is seen at $3,350.00 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $3,278.90. July silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $31.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $33.095 and then at this week’s high of $33.48. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $32.16 and then at $32.00.”
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