Commentary for Friday, May 2, 2025 – Today gold closed up $21.90 at $3231.90, and silver closed down $0.20 at $31.99. In a word, yes, they are worried but considering the drubbing gold took yesterday, today’s bounce to the upside will steady bullish resolve, at least on the shorter term. Still, traders are dealing with enough crosswinds to create a bumpy and uncertain ride. Insiders believe this bull market is just resting and will ultimately move higher. But this has been the primary theme in the metals for some time, so keep in mind that the longer this overhead resistance remains in place the more this market will be subject to downward correction. It’s best to welcome the unexpected as President Trump tries to create his view of “trading equality” among other nations. Last Friday gold closed at $3282.40 / silver at $32.99. On the week gold was down $50.50, and silver was down $1.00.
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On Monday the price of gold moved lower in the early trade testing support at $3270.00 but quickly reversed direction topping $3330.00 and finishing the day nicely in the green. This rally looks like perceived bargain hunting, especially when you consider that last Friday was a big down day for our shiny friend as it lost nearly $50.00. Helping today’s bargain hunting was early dollar weakness. MarketWatch (Vivien Lou Chen) – The case for a sustainable rally in the dollar remains weak, strategist says – “Despite some strengthening in the dollar on Friday, investor allocation out of the U.S. currency is likely to be the dominant narrative in the medium term, according to Thierry Wizman, global foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Macquarie. “Even if the U.S. repairs its commercial relations with allies via negotiations and concessions, allocators are unlikely to return fully to the narrative of relative ‘trust and stability’ that supported overweighting the U.S. in their portfolios. A more compelling case for diversification will work against the USD, over time,” he wrote in a note.
So, are we heading in the right direction? In this crazy market it really depends on your time frame. In the short term the scrimmage between Trump and Powell is growing, and neither seems to be worried about a blow up, even though Trump has already said he will replace Powell. I imagine Powell’s replacement would be considerably more dovish. But Jerome was appointed in 2014, and his term will last through 2028. Whether you believe today’s upward pressure in gold is the result of bargain hunting, possible lower interest rates, or fresh safe haven demand coming from the clash between the White House and Jerome Powell, the chances of gold remaining around current levels or setting new record highs perhaps next year seems like the more likely bet. Another point worth remembering is that reversing a longer term and freewheeling tariff policy is no easy matter, some damage has already been done. And this will continue to help safe haven demand for the metals regardless of how the ongoing food fight between Powell and the White House ends.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Ishaan Arora) – Gold rebounds as bargain-hunting kicks in – “Gold prices reversed course to edge higher on Monday as bargain-hunting kicked in, while market focus was on U.S.-China traded developments and a slew of economic data. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,332.59 an ounce as of 12:09 p.m. ET (1609 GMT) after falling as much as 1.8% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 1.4% to $3,344.0. “We’re starting to see the first signs of selling exhaustion,” TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said, adding that the downside risk in gold is extremely limited. “Western investors, particularly discretionary traders or macro funds, have been completely under-positioned in this last leg of gold’s rally and as a result of that, there’s limited amount of selling activity and gold prices are drifting higher to reflect that.” Bullion, a traditional hedge against political and financial instability, rose to an all-time high of $3,500.05/oz last week due to elevated uncertainties. U.S. President Donald Trump says progress has been made with China. However, Beijing has denied that trade talks are occurring, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent failed on Sunday to back Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were under way. “Until we witness clear patterns of lower highs, lower lows, and firm trade agreements rather than more political bluster from the Trump administration, the prospect of fresh highs for gold cannot be dismissed,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. The risk is high that the global economy will slip into recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Data due this week includes the U.S. job openings report on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Market participants will scan these to gauge the impact of the latest tariffs on the U.S. economy. Spot silver eased 0.1% to $33.05 per ounce, platinum gained 1.2% to $983.00, and palladium was steady at $948.31.”
On the day gold closed up $50.10 at $3332.50, and silver closed unchanged at $32.99.
On Tuesday the price of gold fell to session lows as consumer confidence wavered, but it did not exactly fall out of bed, finishing only slightly in the red. Still, after yesterday’s big jump to the upside, today’s non-existent follow through suggests you may be looking at the first step in a cooling of international problems created by Trump’s erratic tariff policy. On the other hand, consider the flip side of this coin, which is represented in yesterday’s trade. Safe haven demand was being whipped up over bargain hunting. If all of this sounds confusing welcome to a classic flip-flop approach as even the experts are scratching their heads as to what might be around the next corner. It is for this reason that I like taking a bit of profit as gold is moving significantly higher and adding to my stack on significant dips in price. The reasoning behind this approach is that most believe that gold and silver will trend higher, perhaps significantly higher through next year as inflation remains a problem and interest rates decrease.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Sarah Qureshi) – Gold falls as trade tensions soften, US data on tap – “Gold fell more than 1% on Tuesday as signals of easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced some safe-haven demand, while investors braced for key economic data this week to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Spot gold was down 1.2% at $3,300.57 an ounce as of 9:50 a.m. ET (1350 GMT). “There is some optimism that there will be some de-escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “We’ve seen the equity markets rebound over the course of the last several sessions. So there’s been a bit of a lesser need for safe havens like gold.” President Donald Trump’s administration plans to lessen the effect of auto tariffs by lowering taxes on foreign parts used in U.S.-made cars and making sure imported cars aren’t hit with multiple tariffs, officials said. Softening trade tensions has caused a sell-off in safe-haven gold, a traditional hedge against rising global instabilities, which rose in an unprecedented rally to notch a record high at $3,500.05/oz last week. For gold futures, “first resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,363.80 and then at last Friday’s high of $3,384.10. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at last week’s low of $3,270.80,” Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) wrote in a note. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday several top trading partners had made “very good” proposals to avoid U.S. tariffs. China’s recent moves to exempt certain U.S. goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions, Bessent added. On investors’ radar now is a slew of important U.S. economic data this week, including the personal consumption expenditures price index on Wednesday, and a monthly non-farm payrolls report on Friday. Spot silver rose 0.1% to $33.2 an ounce, platinum eased 0.3% to $983.26, and palladium lost 0.8% to $941.51.”
On the day gold closed down $13.70 at $3318.80, and silver closed up $0.29 at $33.28.
On Wednesday the price of gold continues to consolidate, testing support at $3270.00 and dealing with overhead resistance at $3320.00. A choppy pattern for sure, and while traders are looking for higher prices in the longer term, there could be storm clouds on the horizon. (Reuters) US economy contracts in the first quarter – “The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter, swamped by a flood of imports as businesses raced to avoid higher costs from tariffs and underscoring the disruptive nature of President Trump’s often chaotic trade policy.” A recession may turn bullish sentiment on its head. At the same time some insiders believe that the Fed will be forced to reduce interest rates by a full point this year. The President has been pushing for lower interest rates for months, but it seems Jerome Powell has not joined this liberal celebration, still fearing stubborn inflation. The outcome here is uncertain but if the Fed lowers rates to fend off recession the price of gold will likely move higher.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers on Dips – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the initial move was lower, but after a bad GDP print in the United States, the market has turned around a bit to the upside. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have initially pulled back during the session here on Wednesday, but as you can see, they have also bounced in order to show signs of life. It is worth noting that gold had been overextended previously, so this little bit of sideways action probably will help going forward. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where traders continue to see gold as a favorable market to be involved in due to the geopolitical concerns, the US dollar shrinking, and of course, the fact that we may see a recession in the United States. In fact, the GDP numbers came out weaker than anticipated and actually negative in the United States during the session. So that has given gold a bit of a reprieve here in this general vicinity. Whether or not we continue to see gold go sideways or truly take off remains to be seen. But I believe at this point in time, we have a scenario where traders continue to look at dips as buying opportunities. The $3,500 level is a major barrier to overcome, but I think given enough time, we will. The weekly candlestick from last week was a massive shooting star, and it certainly looked like people were getting a bit nervous, but this GDP number, of course, changes a lot of things. If we do drop from here, I think $3,200 ends up being a major support level, while the 50-day EMA underneath there also offers support. I’m looking at buying dips, which has been the play all along with gold. I don’t know if anything has changed. Silver Continues to See Consolidation – The silver market has seen a lot of choppiness over the past several sessions, and Wednesday was no different. At this point in time, the markets continue to move on tariffs, the US dollar, and all the same noise as the past month. Technical Analysis – The silver market has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session here on Wednesday, but it is starting to recover mainly due to the fact that GDP in the United States came out weaker than anticipated, which, of course, has people very interested in owning precious metals. And in fact, in the few minutes that occurred after that announcement, we’ve seen metals absolutely rip to the upside. This is true in both gold and silver at this time. So with that being the case, I like the idea of buying this dip and I think we will probably continue to see a lot of back and forth. That being the case, I think we have to look at this as a market that, quite frankly, is trying to work off some of the froth here right around the 50-day EMA. And that, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. I have no interest whatsoever in trying to get too cute here, but I do think that if we can break above the $34 level, silver more likely than not goes racing towards the $35 level above. Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time, I think reaches those highs and eventually breaks out. And that’s especially true if the US dollar continues to suffer in the currency world. At this point, silver remains somewhat bullish, but there is a lot of work to be done in this area.”
On the day gold closed down $13.80 at $3305.00, and silver closed down $0.75 at $32.53.
On Thursday the price of gold dipped further into the red as the dollar moved higher in value. The Dollar Index has gained a full point in the last 5 trading days and some sort of compromise by Trump on tariff policy with China suggests a softening of trade tensions. So, while gold moved to fresh new highs approaching $3500.00 on rising trade tensions in late April, today’s trade reflects the bearish sentiment of lower prices as trade tensions improve. The big question investors now face is with gold testing support at $3200.00 will our shiny friend hold up, or will the dollar rise pushing gold even lower and opening the door to further profit taking? Technically the price of gold at $3200.00 offers a short term floor according to Christopher Lewis (FXEmpire). And it’s a big plus that longer term viewers still believe the price of gold remains in a bullish trend. But today’s swift $100.00 loss in the price of gold over tariff improvements should present a big red flag to bullish sentiment.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold slips to 2-week low on trade talk hopes, China holiday – “Gold dropped to a two-week low on Thursday, pressured by signals of softening trade tensions and a holiday in top consumer China, while focus was also on Friday’s U.S. payrolls report to gauge the economic outlook. Spot gold was down 2.2% at $3,216.41 an ounce at 10:25 a.m. ET (1425 GMT), after hitting its lowest since April 14 earlier in the session. Prices hit a record $3,500.05/oz last week. “There’s hints of upcoming trade deals, and talk from China that the Trump administration had reached out. A risk-on trade is going on, leading to some profit-taking in gold’s safe-haven,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. U.S. President Donald Trump said trade agreements could be reached with India, Japan, and South Korea. There is a “very good chance” of securing a deal with China, he added. Additionally, a social media account affiliated with Chinese state media said the U.S. has approached China to seek talks over Trump’s 145% tariffs. Chinese markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday on May 1-5. TD Securities said that “gold is being sucked into China’s holiday-induced liquidity vacuum.” Data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, and the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index was unchanged in March. Now, all eyes are on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday. Federal Reserve policymakers indicated interest rates would remain unchanged until there were clear signs of lowering inflation to the 2% goal or potential job market deterioration. Lower interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty raise non-yielding bullion’s appeal. “While the short-term correction has been driven by improved market sentiment, the structural drivers underpinning gold’s strength remain firmly in place,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote. Spot silver fell 1.3% to $32.15, platinum lost 1.2% to $954.85, and palladium gained 0.4% to $941.14.”
On the day gold closed down $95.00 at $3210.00, and silver closed down $0.34 at $32.19.
On Friday the technical price picture of both gold and silver seem to be fading. I would not get too excited here, we did get a large price bounce, but this early rally cooled and gold finished the day by testing daily lows around $3220.00. If you want to think outside the box, consider AG Thorson (FXEmpire). Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. “Gold – Our cycle analysis indicated that market highs tend to form approximately every 115 trading days, indicating a potential peak around April 21st. On April 22nd, gold posted an outside reversal day after hitting $3,500, reinforcing the likelihood of an imminent cycle top. Additionally, our gold cycle indicator reached its maximum topping level, suggesting a multi-month correction of around 20%, with prices possibly retracing toward the $2,800 level. Silver – Silver dipped below $32.00 intraday but rallied into the close. Overall, I think prices are headed lower with gold over the coming months and could revisit support near $26.00 before the next significant bottom.” If you belong to the large group who think that Trump induced escalation was responsible for record high prices, then you should believe that this de-escalation will produce a downward move in prices. One way or the other keep your seat belts fastened.
On the day gold closed up $21.90 at $3231.90, and silver closed down $0.20 at $31.99.
Platinum closed down $1.90 at $962.90, and palladium closed up $7.20 at $946.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,350.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,100.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,277.00 and then at $3,300.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,234.50 and then at this week’s low of $3,209.40. May silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $33.69. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid at $30.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $32.675 and then at $33.00. Next support is seen at $32.00 and then at this week’s low of $31.685.”
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