Commentary for March, 13, 2026 – Today gold closed down $63.30 at $5052.50, and silver closed down $3.76 at $80.91. The price of gold seems to be trending lower this week, which is not hard to believe as interest rates remain steady. And even though gold may test the psychologically important $5000.00 level, I believe investors will buy this weakness. The logic here should be obvious in that according to Reuters Iran is laying mines within the Strait of Hormuz faster than the US can disarm this growing threat to international commerce. Insiders also believe Iran already has enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon. As of March 2026, Iran is believed to have a significantly advanced nuclear program, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium sufficient to potentially produce multiple nuclear weapons if further enriched to 90%, although they do not currently possess a fully developed nuclear bomb. While Iran claims its program is for peaceful, civilian energy purposes, international concern remains high regarding its ability to quickly develop weapons-grade materials. Last Friday gold closed at $5146.10, and silver closed at $83.82. On the week gold was down $93.60, and silver was down $2.91.
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On Monday gold held a trading range between $5070.00 and $5130.00, and finished the day in the red, which is surprising considering the geopolitical problems in the Middle East. But the recent rise in crude oil prices of 25% should spur inflation and underpin gold’s current trading range. Why gold prices are not creating fresh highs over the 10 days of pounding by the allies in Iran is tough to figure. It is possible that the lack of fireworks is a bearish sign suggesting that all is not right in River City (The Music Man). That being said traders will buy significant weakness in gold or silver and hold for the longer term. If you are new to this drama, it may better serve your needs to stand aside and see if this pricing froth will settle and provide better prices.
FXEmpire (Arsian Ali) – $5,200 Ceiling Holds – Bull Trap or New Rally? – Despite the escalating tensions in the Middle East gold kicked off the new week on the downswing, edging lower around 5,080 and slumping to a low of 5,015 – though big picture the downward trend has as much to do with inflation concerns as it has to do with anything else. The US Federal Reserve’s chances of cutting interest rates anytime soon just got a lot slimmer, and that in turn has given the US dollar a boost, putting more pressure on gold. Silver is in the same boat and currently down by 1.21% at 83.32, it’s also being squeezed by a stronger dollar and inflation worries. But on the other hand, all this Middle East business may actually help limit silver’s losses – who knows. US Dollar Strength Looks Like It’s Here to Stay Amid Inflation Fears and Middle East Tensions – The US dollar has had a great day, although you could argue it’s had even better days. Behind it all is the inflation story – after all, crude oil has just spiked by over 25%. That tends to increase the risk of inflation, which in turn makes the Fed rather less likely to cut interest rates anytime soon. And that’s exactly what’s been driving the dollar upwards to its highest point in ages – since last November, to be precise. Now of course, all eyes are on the Middle East too – US and Israeli forces have now been pounding Iran for 10 days straight and still there’s no end in sight. It’s just gotten a whole lot worse in the last 24 hours with Iran naming the Ayatollah’s son as the new top guy, which likely just means business as usual and more tensions with the Western world. Another thing that’s got investors spooked is the Strait of Hormuz – this is one of the key bits of shipping infrastructure that keeps the world’s oil and gas flowing. If this gets gummed up, you can bet the world’s economies are going to feel the pinch – and fast. Technical Outlook: Range Compression Below $5,175 Resistance – Gold’s bouncing around $5,105, hedged in by a strong resistance zone that runs from $5,175 to $5,200. The 2-hour chart shows a pretty tight trading range after gold shot up against the $5,410 high, with lower highs jamming up against the supply zone. The 50-EMA is pretty much flat near $5,130 but the 200-EMA at $5,015 still looks like it’s in an uptrend, given the ascending trendline from early February. Lately, the rejection candles are showing up right near resistance, while buyers are stepping in above $5,015 – we’re getting a bit of a triangle-like squeeze in the short term. RSI is just hovering around 50, which doesn’t really give us any clue about momentum. If gold can break through $5,200, you can bet the first stop is $5,276. On the other hand, if it drops below $5,015, it’s a risk that takes us all the way down to $4,935. Trade Idea: Consider buying above $5,200, with a target of $5,276, and stop if I fall below $5,120. Silver Technical Outlook: Ascending Trendline Holds as $85 Caps Recovery – Silver’s currently trading at around $83.52, taking a breather after getting knocked down from that big chunk of supply between $91.20 and $96.20. On the 2 hour chart, the price is stuck between a horizontal line at $85.45 which is acting as a bit of a barrier and that rising trendline support that’s floating around the $80.50 level. It’s starting to look like a pretty tight squeeze. The 50-EMA is edging its way around $84.00, while the 200-EMA is hovering just above that, really driving home the point that $85.00 is a big deal. If the price does manage to break out above that $85.45 line, we might see this thing suddenly shoot all the way up to $88. But if it gets knocked down below that $80.50 level, watch out – it could send the price careering all the way down to $76.13. Trade Idea: Consider buying above $85.50 and targeting $88.00. Set your stop just below $83.80
On the day gold closed down $54.60 at $5091.50, and silver closed up $0.21 at $84.03.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved to session highs in the early trade of $5230.00, reacting to several bullish crosscurrents, including uncertainties over the escalating war in the Middle East and a weaker dollar. On the other hand, concerns over inflation in the US have reduced hopes that the FOMC will cut interest rates anytime soon, a bearish indication, at least in the short term. It is easy to see that rising geopolitical concerns support safe haven demand, but the confusing part of this equation happened after Trump’s public comments about Iran today. The aftermarket was weaker and, in my mind, even a bit unstable, still the price of gold is consolidating near $5183.00, so its positive trendline remains intack. Investors may expect higher prices in the short term, extreme volatility and even the possibility of fresh record highs this year. According to FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – The Silver market has gapped higher on Tuesday to show continued strength on dips. At this point, silver is trying to break above the crucial $90 level.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains on softer dollar, cooling inflation concerns – Gold rose on Tuesday, buoyed by a pause in the dollar’s rally and easing inflation concerns as oil prices pulled back amid receding expectations of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Spot gold was up 1.2% at $5,200.29 per ounce as of 9:11 a.m. ET (1311 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 2.1% at $5,210.70. The dollar took a breather after rallying the previous day, supporting gold prices as a weaker dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for other currency holders. Oil prices plummeted on Tuesday after soaring to a more than three-year high in the previous session as U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies. On the ground, however, there were no signs of the war easing, with Tehran residents reached by Reuters describing U.S.-Israeli bombardment of the capital overnight as the fiercest of the conflict. Meanwhile, G7 energy ministers are expected to discuss how to tackle soaring energy prices in a call on Tuesday. “With oil prices easing from peaks above $100 – still inflationary and therefore supportive for gold, but no longer high enough to seriously limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates – investors are gaining comfort that the debasement trade may be re-energizing as we move on,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Despite being viewed as an inflation hedge, gold loses some appeal when interest rates rise, as it offers no yield. Investors also await U.S. consumer price index data and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data due later this week. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at its upcoming March 17-18 meeting but may have a broader discussion given key supply-chain risks are on the table again. Meanwhile, gold in Dubai is trading at a discount to London as flight constraints caused by the conflict keep more bullion in the local market, while demand remains subdued. Spot silver rose 2.4% to $89.21. Spot platinum gained 2.1% at $2,228.35, while palladium added 0.2% to reach $1,693.70.
On the day gold closed up $138.20 at $5229.70, and silver closed up $5.05 at $89.08.
On Wednesday the price of gold drifted lower in a fairly choppy trade as the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose 0.2% in February. Neils Christensen (Kitco) – The gold market is struggling to hold the line near $5,200 as investors continue to focus on stubborn inflation, which could force the Federal Reserve to maintain its neutral monetary policy longer than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in February, following a 0.2% increase in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Wednesday. The inflation numbers rose in line with economists’ expectations. Annual inflation rose 2.4%, unchanged from January’s reading and also in line with expectations. “The good news is that inflation didn’t come in higher than expected in this morning’s CPI report; however, this is backward-looking data from before the war in Iran began,” said Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management. “It is generally assumed – and we agree – that the Fed is going to be on hold for longer now, as they wait to see if inflation expectations rise and become embedded, or if everything will go back to where it was prior to the military operations in the Middle East.”
FXEmpire (Muhammad Umair) – Gold Consolidates Above $5,000 Ahead of CPI as Middle East Tensions Drive Market – Gold prices were stable in the early Asian session on Wednesday. The spot gold price is trading near $5,190 following a period of sharp volatility. The precious metal started to recover from the key level of $5,000 as oil prices dropped lower on Tuesday. Despite the recent fluctuations, gold is still trading above important psychological levels. Markets are still looking for the geopolitical headlines. The release of CPI data on Wednesday will be the key event that may drive the next move in the gold price. Middle East Tensions and Oil Market Reactions – Geopolitics is the primary driver of recent movements in prices. US President Donald Trump hinted that the US penetration in Iran might conclude in the near future. However, the situation on the ground still appears to be tense. According to some reports, Tuesday was the heaviest day of strikes within Iran. Oil markets reacted positively to prospect of de-escalation. US crude prices dropped over 20% since the peak at $119 as traders speculated that conflict would not grow. Meanwhile G7 energy ministers agreed to hold back on releasing strategic oil reserves and asked the International Energy Agency to review situation before making any decision. US Dollar, Economic Data and CPI in Focus – Currency markets also reacted strongly to these developments. The US Dollar Index was able to bounce back slightly and increased to about 98.90. This rebound has pushed the gold price higher to above $5,200. At the same time, high energy prices brought on by conflict have complicated expectations about US monetary policy. Investors are now looking forward to slightly less dovish Federal Reserve. On the other hand, economic data this week also influenced sentiment in markets. The chart below shows that the US existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, recovering from sharp decline in January. Labor market indicators also showed improvement with the weekly ADP employment change increasing to 15.5K from 12.75K previously. Investors now focus on the upcoming US CPI data. Headline inflation is expected to continue at 2.4% year-on-year while core CPI could continue at 2.5%. A stronger than expected reading of inflation could cause the US dollar to rise and exert short-term pressure on gold prices. Traders will also heavily monitor developments in the Middle East. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps put the world on notice that continued attacks could result in disruptions in regional oil exports. At the same time, President Trump mentioned that if any attempt were made to block oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the US would respond strongly. Any escalation could quickly pick up the safe haven demand and send gold prices higher again. Gold Holds Key Support as Bullish Momentum Builds – The chart below shows that the gold price has been consolidating above the $5,000 key level and is looking for the next move. The consolidation above $5,000 and then a break above $5,200 indicates that the next move in the gold price will likely be higher. The 50-day and 200-day SMA are trending higher which indicates a strong bullish trend. The short-term target for the gold price is $5,600 as long as $5,000 holds. A break below $5,000 will find strong support at $4,800. Bottom Line – The gold price is still trading above the important $5,000 level, which maintains the overall bullish structure. Investors are now looking at the US CPI data and Middle East developments that could influence the next move. Stronger inflation could help the US dollar and put pressure on gold in the short term. However, increasing geopolitical risks and uncertainty in energy markets could continue to support the safe haven demand. As long as gold holds above $5,000, the overall outlook is bullish, and market may continue to move towards higher levels in the coming days.
On the day gold closed down $62.30 at $5167.40, and silver closed down $4.01 at $85.07.
On Thursday the price of gold was surprisingly weaker, which is a bit on the bearish side because the bulls were not able to take advantage of the rather large dip in the price of gold yesterday. And this weakness has raised the possibility of gold testing support around $5000.00. But I find this unlikely considering the rising tension in the Middle East. In fact, I’m surprised investors have not bought today’s weakness with both hands. But this bearish turn may be the first sign that Iran is not going to cave to Western pressure as easily as Trump imagined. This should not be surprising to Middle East observers; Iran has never been a Western minion. Finding a middle ground makes more sense than blowing up oil tankers in Strait of Hormuz, which will drive oil prices higher, spur inflation, further divide the Middle East and increase terrorism worldwide. This is turning into a humanitarian disaster with no easy answers.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers in Risk Aversion – Gold continues to find buyers on dips during the session on Thursday, as traders continue to worry about the war, and the next steps going forward. Technical Analysis – The gold market pulled back just a touch during the early hours here on Thursday only to find buyers again as we continue to see a “buy on the dip” type of situation. Dropping from here opens up the possibility of testing the $5,000 level, an area that I think is going to be important not only from a psychological standpoint, but from the point that it has offered support a couple of times already. The 50-day EMA is racing towards the $5,000 level as well, so I think all things being equal, it is a well-supported market. Central Bank Demand and Long-Term Targets – Central banks around the world continue to buy gold in general and that puts in a bit of a permanent bid, but we also have so many issues around the world that could push gold higher, especially the war in the Middle East, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where we could go higher and I think we probably will over the longer term with a target of $5,500. If we can break that area, then it opens up the possibility of a much bigger move. If we were to break down below the 50-day EMA then it’s possible that we could go to the $4,600 level, which is an area that I think is essentially the floor in the market at this point. Ultimately, I’m a buyer, I’m not a seller. I do think gold eventually goes much higher over the long term, as there will continue to be several reasons to think we are going higher here.
On the day gold closed down $51.60 at $5115.80, and silver closed down $0.40 at $84.67.
On Friday the price of gold was typically choppy, trading between $5070.00 and $5120.00. But I believe the informed buyer is more bullish than these numbers suggest. Especially if Iran cannot stop attacking its neighbors to allow rising geopolitical tension time to cool. Trump’s warning that the US will be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week” is not a great strategy because the people living in Iran are denied free choice and have been brutally trained to follow a religious zealot willing to blow up the Middle East because he sees Iran as the victim. I would not be a seller of gold bullion anytime soon, especially if interest rates remain steady.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold firms but heads for second consecutive weekly fall – Gold prices firmed on Friday but were on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, with inflation worries driven by the Iran war weighing on rate‑cut expectations. Spot gold gained 0.8% at $5,118.39 per ounce, by 8:52 a.m. ET (1252 GMT), but was down 1% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures for April delivery steadied at $5,124.70. The U.S. dollar was on course for a weekly rise, making greenback priced-bullion less affordable for other currency holders. “As expected, there was little reaction in gold to the Fed’s ‘favored’ inflation indicator, it was high but on consensus, the release had been delayed as it was January data, but mostly importantly the Iran conflict and oil prices are dominating every market,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “The market remains overwhelmingly bullish on gold in the long term on fundamental drivers and its relative stability at this time is not a concern.” While gold is prized as a traditional hedge against inflation and periods of uncertainty, elevated rates typically curb its appeal by increasing the cost of holding bullion. Data showed U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in January, which together with continued strength in underlying inflation and the war in the Middle East bolstered economists’ views the Federal Reserve would not resume cutting interest rates for some time. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was going to be hitting Iran “very hard over the next week”, shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil. Oil prices dipped but were on track for weekly gains as Gulf disruptions due to the conflict persisted. Elsewhere, resumption of some flights from Dubai has allowed gold flows from this major global trading hub to partially resume this week, three sources told Reuters. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.7% to $84.32. Platinum lost 1.4% to $2,102.12 and palladium shed 0.6% to $1,608.75. The sister metals lost value this week.
On the day gold closed down $63.30 at $5052.50, and silver closed down $3.76 at $80.91.
Platinum closed down $123.40 at $2036.60, palladium closed down $67.80 at $1554.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $5,434.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $5,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $5,132.40 and then at $5,200.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $5,058.20 and then at this week’s low of $5,021.20. May silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $72.405. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $85.62 and then at $87.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $81.515 and then at this week’s low of $79.64.
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