Commentary for Feb, 27, 2026 – Today gold closed up $54.00 at $5230.50, and silver closed up $5.68 at $92.68. Gold finished the week with a small amount of fireworks as it pushed to session highs of $5250.00 before settling somewhat. Yet finishing the day solidly in the green. Suggesting that this market may be resting and still has plenty of upside potential, especially in the longer term. Gold is currently about 6.5% below its all-time high and silver is about 22% below its all-time high. I’m not precluding a round of profit taking at this point. But across our trading desk it looks like there are few big sellers of gold or silver bullion. In other words, the public is not likely to “push the panic” because the world geopolitical tension is heating up not cooling down. JP Morgan raises long-term gold price forecast to $4,500 – JP Morgan raised its long-term forecast for gold prices to $4,500 an ounce on Wednesday while keeping its 2026 year-end forecast at $6,300. Spot gold has risen by about 20% this year, hitting a three-week high of $5,248.89 an ounce on Tuesday. It hit a record peak of $5,594.82 on January 29. That followed a 2025 surge of more than 64% in the metal widely regarded as a safe-haven investment. The bank noted that it remains firmly bullish on gold prices through 2026 and still sees a continued structural diversification trend into the metal, which it says has further room to run. It added that it forecasts enough demand from central banks and investors this year to ultimately push gold prices to $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026. Geopolitical risks, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate easing cycle, central bank buying and flows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have driven gold to multiple record highs over the past year. Low interest rates tend to make non-yielding gold a more attractive proposition for investors. Bank of America said it sees a pathway for gold to hit $6,000 over the next 12 months. The bank added that it is concerned that silver prices could pull back further in the near term but could rise again above $100 an ounce this year. Spot silver was trading around $90.70 on Wednesday, down from a record $121.64 touched in late January. Last Friday gold closed at $5059.30, and silver closed at $82.28. On the week gold was higher by $171.20, and silver closed higher by $10.40.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. The present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday I can’t say that the surge in gold was a surprise, as it opened choppy and then jumped to a session high of $5200.00. Now add this to last Friday’s close of $83.40 higher on the close and the bulls are certainly fired up and ready for this week’s action. Most of this volatility in gold and silver today was created over fresh save haven concerns. These are fueled by recent setbacks over Trump’s use of tariffs by the Supreme Court. And the continuing trouble with Iran’s view of nuclear weapons in the Middle East. In January of this year gold topped the record charts at around $5600.00 but could not manage to hold these gains and tumbled nearly 10% as investors took profits. Where prices may go from here is problematical, but likely will be determined by the Fed interest rate timeline and Iran’s ability to follow established nuclear rules.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Rally Intact – Why Iran and the Fed Matter More Than Tariffs – Spot Gold Picks Up a Bid as Dollar Slides on Tariff Uncertainty – Spot Gold picked up a bid on Friday as the U.S. Dollar slid in reaction to the uncertainty centering around U.S. tariffs. According to Reuters, a revived “Sell America” trade may be behind the move, but I think saying this is a little premature since we don’t know all of the details yet and we’re just looking at a reaction to the news. Supreme Court Ruling and Trump’s Tariff Response Were Telegraphed – Not a Surprise – Some are calling the Supreme Court’s decision to declare President Trump’s tariffs illegal a surprise, but I think the news has been telegraphed for weeks. Trump’s perfectly legal response – the adding of an additional 15% tariff on imports — was also expected. I believe the timing is the surprise, not the action-reaction. Gold’s Uptrend Remains Intact – January’s Selloff Was a Reset, Not a Reversal – Gold is in an uptrend on the weekly chart and, other than the steep decline a month ago, hasn’t really shown any signs of weakness. In hindsight, the one-week break in January looks like a reset, designed to reestablish trend line support and to shake out the weaker traders that had pushed prices too high for the long-term buyers. Tariffs Are Creating Uncertainty, but That Alone Isn’t Enough to Drive Gold Higher – Other than creating uncertainty, I fail to see how the news is bullish for gold, other than maybe as a hedge against lower stock prices. The dollar has also weakened since the tariff announcements, which tends to lead to increased foreign demand for gold. Iran Negotiations Thursday – Just Days Before Trump’s Military Deadline – Geopolitics is also playing a role in the rally, with gold traders eyeing the simmering tensions between the United States and Iran. This week, negotiations will continue on Thursday, just days before the 10-to-15-day window that Trump suggested last week could launch the start of military activity. Fed Uncertainty Could Cap Gold’s Gains Just as Easily as It Drives Them – If uncertainty is driving gold prices higher, it could also cap gains or even cause them to move lower. I’m talking about the uncertainty surrounding the timing of the first rate cut in 2026. Gold topped at $5602.23 in January the day after the last Fed meeting. This tells me that something the Fed did or said encouraged investors to book profits. The dollar also reached a bottom at that time, so the Fed statement may have been interpreted as hawkish. That same message came across last week with the release of the Fed minutes on Wednesday. Prior to the tariff news on Friday, the dollar was steady-to-better because news of weaker GDP and higher inflation supported the idea that the Fed didn’t have enough economic data to cut rates in March or June. The March meeting is over a month away and the market is already saying there is a 94% chance the Fed won’t cut rates at that time. The June CME FedWatch Tool sees only a 44% chance of a rate cut in June. Technical Outlook: $5143.89 Sets the Tone – Above Targets $5600, Below Means Range – This week, the gold market is likely to lean higher with the weekly Fibonacci level at $5143.89 controlling its direction, along with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the tariff news. I think the tariff story will eventually fade away, but the geopolitical situation is going to linger. The trigger for volatility will be the outcome of Thursday’s negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. I think the odds are pretty strong that by next weekend, the two countries will either be engaged in a war or both claiming they won the negotiations. The emphasis will then shift back to the economic data and the chances of a June rate cut. Trader reaction to $5143.89 will set the tone this week. Holding above will put $5600 back on the map, but a break under it will put prices back inside a range. The Bottom Line: Ignore the Noise and Watch Iran and the Fed – The “Sell America” narrative is premature. The Supreme Court ruling wasn’t a surprise and the tariff story is just noise. The real drivers are Iran geopolitics and the Fed rate cut timeline. Those two factors will ultimately determine where gold goes from here.
On the day gold closed up $145.40 at $5204.70, and silver closed up $4.24 at $86.52.
On Tuesday the price of gold held up in the early trade but soon tested support at $5100.00, finally closing nicely in the red for the day. The reason being that investors took profits after yesterday’s big jump to the upside, likely the result of decreased geopolitical pressure. But this may be only the short term picture as UBS sees $6200.00 gold by mid-year. I think the UBS guess is somewhat optimistic, but the downside may not be much as safe haven demand is solid and insiders expect interest rates to trend lower. The geopolitical situation is getting crazier so investors should expect increased volatility and perhaps fresh record prices this year.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold slips from three‑week high on profit‑taking and dollar strength – Gold retreated more than 2% on Tuesday, slipping from a three‑week high as profit‑taking and a firmer dollar weighed on the market, while traders awaited clarity on U.S. tariff plans and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran. Spot gold dropped 2.1% to $5,119.67 per ounce by 9:33 a.m. ET (1433 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 1.7% at $5,138.30. The U.S. dollar rose 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. “Gold prices (had been) trending higher again so I suspect this is just a corrective pullback,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, adding that a higher dollar is also having a negative influence on the prices. Prices hit a three-week high earlier in the session, boosted after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to raise duties to 15% following the Supreme Court ruling that his use of an emergency law to impose tariffs exceeded his authority. However, the United States on Tuesday imposed a 10% tariff on all non‑exempt goods, as first announced by Trump on Friday. Iran and the U.S. will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva, amid growing concerns about the risk of military conflict between the longtime adversaries. “You’ve still got solid safe‑haven demand, with Iran–U.S. tensions and tariff uncertainty limiting selling in gold, keeping fundamentals supportive. But as prices near record highs, they’ll face stiff resistance, and pushing to new highs would likely require a fresh geopolitical catalyst,” Wyckoff said. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, tends to benefit in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Outgoing Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic told Reuters the U.S. may be entering a phase of structurally higher unemployment as firms adopt AI to cut labor, a shift that the Fed may not be able to counter with lower rates. Spot silver fell 2% to $86.45 per ounce, after hitting a two-week high on Monday. Spot platinum was down 1.6% to $2,119.29 per ounce, and palladium lost 1.4%, to $1,719.29.
On the day gold closed down $48.90 at $5155.80, and silver closed up $0.94 at $87.46.
On Wednesday the price of gold closed solidly in the green, trading between $5205.00 and $5160.00 in a choppy fashion. Generally bullish sentiment remains in tack because investors are willing to buy this market on weakness. But in my mind, they also seem willing to sell on strength, so the jury is still out as to relative direction on the short term. Most analysts however see higher prices over the long term, supported by tariff and Supreme Court confusion as to what Trump now has in mind given his “big picture” structural setback. My bet is that he will figure a way to get what he wants, adding to the confusion and eventually supporting the price of gold. I like these current trading levels in gold because it gives this market time to consolidate, which is another reason to expect higher prices, eventually spurred by rising geopolitical tension.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold continues to See Buying – The gold market has been positive in the early hours of Wednesday, as the markets are trying to continue to longer-term move that has been so positive. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied a bit in the early hours of Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise and volatility, but the market continues to be one that I think a lot of value hunters will continue to chase as the uptrend is so apparent. And we have plenty of fundamentals to drive the gold market higher. We have geopolitical tensions, which is almost always a good thing for gold. We have the trade war still, and then again, we have the actual central banks buying gold. That of course is a huge tailwind. Technical Outlook and Key Support Levels – When you look at the technical analysis of this market, we have just broken out over the last couple of days and now it looks like we are trying to confirm that breakout above the $5,150 level. Even if we were to break down below there, I think you have a situation where the market is going to continue to see more of a buy on the dip mentality. I have no interest in shorting this market anytime soon. With that being said, I think you also have to keep an eye on the $5,000 level, which is a large round psychologically significant figure that people will be paying attention to. Even if we break down below there, we have the $4,800 level followed by the $4,600 level offering support. So, it is really not until we break through all of that that my overall analysis changes. We will have some choppiness along the way, but that choppiness should give us opportunities to pick up gold on the cheap.
On the day gold closed down $48.90 at $5155.80, and silver closed up $0.94 at $87.46.
On Thursday the price of gold moved lower on a round of profit taking and reduced geopolitical tension but found support around $5150.00, a bullish plus at least in the short term. Investors remain optimistic that gold and silver prices will make fresh record highs this year and seem willing to deal with the volatility which comes and goes as the world figures out what Trump has in mind for his next surprise on the world stage. The volume numbers across our trading desk are off but the public remains strong buyers and sellers of gold and silver bullion. The investor market is solid because there is not much in the way of discounts on popular bullion products.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Profit-taking price pressure on gold, silver – Gold and silver prices are down in early U.S. trading Thursday, with silver once again leading the way. Profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders is featured in both markets, following recent gains that have started new near-term price uptrends. April gold was last down $42.20 at $5,184.40. March silver prices were down $4.878 at $86.245. U.S., Iran hold third round of nuclear talks. The U.S. and Iran started a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland today, with days to go until President Trump’s deadline for a deal. “The two parties have been locked in a tense, months-long standoff over the Islamic Republic’s atomic activities and are negotiating through mediator Oman at its embassy in Geneva, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency said and as reported by Bloomberg. “Iran has come here with a very reasonable amount of flexibility,” Esmail Baghaei, spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Iranian state TV on the sidelines of the talks in Switzerland. “We are entitled to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes; that’s a right that is recognized.” Trump has given Iran a deadline of March 1-6 to strike a deal and has threatened military action if it fails to do so, sparking fears of a new Middle East war that could embroil Israel and Gulf Arab oil producers. Russia launches major drone, missile attack on Ukraine. Russia set off a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, hours after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and President Trump discussed potential next steps in peace talks. Dozens of people, including children, were injured in Russian strikes on eight regions of the country involving 420 drones and 39 missiles, Zelenskiy said today in a post on Telegram and as reported by Bloomberg. Energy infrastructure was targeted in Kyiv and the Dnipro and Poltava regions. Top U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators are due to meet in Geneva today to discuss economic issues, including a so-called prosperity plan for financing Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, said the report. Wall Street is struggling to figure out economic impact of AI. A blog post earlier this week by Citrini Research titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” sparked a stock market dip as investors digested the worrisome scenario of AI replacing white-collar jobs and causing a deflationary spiral. “The post imagined a scenario where extremely capable AI agents have replaced vast swaths of white-collar jobs, wiping out consumer spending and pushing the global economy into a deflationary spiral, causing stocks of firms like Uber and Mastercard to tumble,” Bloomberg said in a report. “The reaction to the post is the latest indication that Wall Street is struggling to understand the trajectory of AI, with investors worried that the technology will be either not lucrative enough or too disruptive to the economy,” said the report. This report falls into the camp of the safe-haven metals bulls. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index a bit firmer, with crude oil prices down and trading around $64.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is 4.05 percent.
On the day gold closed down $29.90 at $5176.50, and silver closed down $3.94 at $87.00.
On Friday the price of gold got a shot in the arm as traders pushed prices to session highs approaching $5250.00, underscored by rising inflation pressure and solid safe haven demand. The question is whether the latest hot inflation suggests that Fed will have less opportunity to lower interest rates? Which might be true. And if so, it might help stall this rally. The lesson to be learned here, however, is that the price of gold has a life of its own and really does not present a big downside danger because of the confused world geopolitical situation.
Reuters (Nevzat Devranoglu and Ezgi Eroyun) – Gold’s rise cheers Turks, takes shine off anti-inflation efforts – Gold‑loving Turks grew $300 billion wealthier in the past year as record prices swelled the value of their holdings to nearly half the size of Turkey’s economy, but the resulting resilience in domestic demand has slowed the country’s already difficult fight against inflation. With global bullion soaring to all-time highs since the summer, the total value of Turkey’s gold stock has climbed to more than $750 billion, which is exceptionally high by global standards considering Turkey’s GDP of about $1.57 trillion. The central bank says $600 billion of that stock is “under‑the‑mattress”, or “under-the-pillow” in Turkish: gold held by households and companies outside the banking system, reflecting a long tradition of Turks holding tight to the metal as a safe, portable, tangible store of wealth. The doubling of the value of these coins, bangles and other gold pieces in a year has encouraged spending, despite annual inflation above 30%. Economists and the central bank say this has complicated a disinflation path, prompting slower interest rate cuts. Confidence To Spend – Gold hit $5,000 an ounce last month, driven by trade disruptions and geopolitical instability. For Turks, the global gold rush marks some relief after a nearly decade-long inflation and currency crisis at home that slashed their earnings and savings. “I’ve been investing in physical gold for a year, buying it piece by piece whenever I save up,” said 21-year-old air conditioning technician Furkan as he used cash to buy a gram of gold at an Istanbul shop. “I believe prices will rise even further. I’m planning to buy a car.” Turkey has among the highest levels of household gold ownership alongside India, Germany and Vietnam. The precious metal, given as gifts at weddings and passed down through generations, is a hedge against inflation and lira depreciation, and a permissible investment under Islamic tradition that spurns interest-bearing banking. Beyond what is under the pillow, Turkish banks store some $80 billion of the metal in bank deposits and investment funds, while the central bank owns about $80 billion in reserves, data show. Central Bank Slowed Rate Cuts – In a recent blog post, the central bank flagged that housing prices have risen markedly more in provinces with a higher share of gold deposits than elsewhere since the last quarter of 2023, when global bullion prices started to climb. When households use gold-related wealth to buy homes without relying on credit, “demand remains strong even amid tight financial conditions”, it said, calling this a “clear sign of a wealth effect”. Asim Gursel, a gold shop owner in Istanbul, said that over the past year customers were increasingly selling gold to buy cars or first homes in a reversal from past practices when they were largely selling homes to buy gold. The central bank cut its key rate by a smaller-than-expected 100 basis points to 37% in January, when monthly consumer prices soared nearly 5%, and it has since raised year-end inflation forecasts. Gold prices jumped almost 25% in January alone, when the wealth effect in Turkey amounted to $80 billion – capping a year in which it totaled $300 billion.
On the day gold closed up $54.00 at $5230.50, and silver closed up $5.68 at $92.68.
Platinum closed up $134.90 at $2365.60, palladium closed up $43.60 at $1792.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,854.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5,269.40 and then at $5,300.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5,109.50 and then at $5,100.00. March silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $71.815. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $91.34 and then at $93.00. Next support is seen at $87.00 and then at this week’s low of $84.56.
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.