Commentary for Friday, Aug 29, 2025 – Today gold closed up $41.90 at $3473.70, and silver closed up $1.01 at $40.20. This week has been an optimistic one for the bulls for several reasons. The consensus that interest rates are moving lower makes sense. Gold’s technical picture is solid and creating fresh buzz with investors interested in physical gold and silver bullion. Trump’s attempt to influence the FOMC board of governors has increased tension and created confusion leading to uncertainty and dramatically higher ETF holdings which have increased by 15 tons in the last two days. And Ian Samson, portfolio manager at Fidelity International claims the upside for gold remains solid even at these elevated levels. It always pays to be cautious when sentiment strongly favors higher prices. But all things considered owning physical gold and silver bullion during the Trump presidency still makes the most sense. Last Friday gold closed at $3374.40 / silver at $39.00. On the week gold was higher by $99.30, and silver was higher by $1.20.
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On Monday the price of gold held a tight trading range between $3362.00 and $3372.00 and closed almost unchanged on the day. This is off a few dollars from last Friday’s close and suggests a lazy start to this week’s pricing range. Still, this must be a disappointment to the bulls considering the explosive close to the upside last Friday of $37.50 ($3374.40). Traders are still waiting to hear exactly what Chief Powell has in mind relative to interest rate policy. But insiders are looking for some sort of incremental decrease between now and early 2026. If this speculation is accurate, it will encourage fresh safe haven physical demand and perhaps even another attempt at moving above tough overhead resistance in the $3500.00 range.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Drifts Lower in Early Hours of Monday Trading – “Gold continues to see a bit of noise, but a short-term pullback is what we are seeing in the early hours of Monday. At this point, the market is still bullish but is also a touch thin. Technical Analysis – The gold market has dropped slightly in the early part of Monday trading, but quite frankly, this is just a simple pullback from the explosive move that we saw on Friday. Now, with all of that in mind, you also have to keep in mind that the volume is probably a little lacking this time of year, as it is typical vacation season for traders on Wall Street and Canary Wharf, places like that. The 50-day EMA sits at the $3,368 level and is rising, so I look at that as a potential support level, as the 50-day EMA has essentially acted as a trendline for months now. The upside sees the $3,500 level as a major barrier that will be difficult to get above, and even if we did, I think at that point, you still have to expect some type of fight. The US dollar is strengthening a little bit in the early hours on Monday, so that does suggest that gold might be a little bit choppy, but either way, at this point, I still favor buying dips in gold as we’ve been in a very strong uptrend for some time and have now just been working off some of that excess froth in the market. On a move above the $3,500 level, I would take the measured move of $300 and expect a move towards the $3,800 level. On a breakdown, I believe there’s plenty of support at the $3,300 level as well as the $3,200 level. I don’t have any interest in shorting gold. I would need to see some type of major shift in the overall economic picture to even start thinking that. Silver Continues to See Volatility – The Monday session was a little soft for silver in the early hours, but we are still a positive market from the longer-term from what I see. At this point, the silver market remains “buy on the dips.” Technical Analysis – Silver has found itself dropping a bit in the early market trading on Monday, which does make a certain amount of sense as we are seeing the U.S. dollar strengthen a bit. Remember, most times—not always but most times—the silver market runs counter to what the U.S. dollar is doing as they have a pretty strong negative correlation. Ultimately, though, silver has been very bullish for a while, and until I see something that proves otherwise, I have to assume that these dips end up being buying opportunities. From a technical analysis standpoint, you can see plainly that the $37.50 level is an area that has been important multiple times, as it has been resistance followed by support. The 50-day EMA now finds itself right around that level as well, so I think it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see short-term buyers offering a little bit of support if we do get anywhere near that level. Long-term buyers most certainly will be interested as well, but quite frankly, when you’ve had an uptrend like we’ve had since the beginning of April, most longer-term traders are already invested here. To the upside, the $39 level is a short-term barrier, but I think the real ceiling in the market at the moment is the $40 level. If we were to break above there, that would be extraordinarily bullish for silver and could send it screaming to much higher levels. That being said, it is a fairly quiet time of year typically, and of course, nobody’s really sure where the global economy is heading at the moment. And it is worth noting that silver is an industrial metal. So, while I like buying dips, I also recognize that it could be quite noisy.
On the day gold closed down $0.60 at $3373.80, and silver closed down $0.32 at $38.68.
On Tuesday the price of gold was choppy, trading between $3366.00 and $3385.00 on another almost quiet day, even though Trump said he was removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Traders are a bit nervous but have not hit the panic button. Still, gold finished the day nicely in the green reacting to Trump’s latest attempt to influence interest rates – the primary weapon the FOMC uses to control inflation. It’s common knowledge that Trump believes interest rates are too high, and he could be right. But I’m not sure if this frontal assault makes sense and some believe it could damage FOMC independence. Many insiders are expecting steady to higher prices in both gold and silver between now and the holiday season.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold hits two-week peak after Trump says he is firing Fed governor – “Gold prices hit a more than two-week high on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, a move seen by many as eroding the central bank’s independence and undermining confidence in U.S. assets. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,378.64 an ounce at 1143 GMT, having hit its highest since August 11 at $3,386.27 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.3% at $3,426. Trump on Monday took the unprecedented action of firing Cook over mortgage borrowing impropriety claims. Some investors are seeing Trump’s move as an attempt to secure a dovish majority in the Fed’s members, said Carlo Alberto De Casa, an external analyst at banking group Swissquote. He added that this raises questions about the Fed’s independence and adds market uncertainty that prompts investors to buy gold. Prices of non-yielding bullion tend to perform well when interest rates are low and in times of economic uncertainty. SPDR Gold Trust , the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose by 0.18% to 958.49 metric tons on Monday, from 956.77 tons on Friday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday signaled a possible rate cut next month, saying that job market risks were rising but inflation remained a threat. “Markets are pricing a 25 bps rate cut (in September). A jumbo cut would help gold further, but I don’t see this as a likely,” De Casa added. Investors are awaiting further inflation data on Friday for more clues on the central bank’s monetary policy path. Meanwhile, China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose 126.81% in July from June, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Tuesday. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.2% to $38.47 an ounce, platinum was down 0.2% at $1,340.30 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,091.25.”
On the day gold closed up $14.80 at $3388.60, and silver closed down $0.10 at $38.58.
On Wednesday the price of gold was again choppy this morning moving between $3374.00 and $3382.00 with a mild upward bias even as the dollar continues to gain strength and traders take profits awaiting the latest data on inflation with the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) due this coming Friday. The current reading from the FedWatch Tool predicts an 87% chance of a quarter point rate cut from the FOMC September 17th supporting bullish sentiment. Which has rallied to some degree as Trump attempts a rather circuitous route in lowering interest rates in the shorter term. If successful insiders anticipate another attempt at all-time highs in gold.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold eases on firmer dollar and profit-taking – “Gold slipped on Wednesday as the dollar firmed and investors booked profits after prices hit a more than two-week high in the previous session. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $3,375.79 per ounce at 1119 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.2% to $3,425.10. The dollar index which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose about 0.4%, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. “(Gold) prices are acting less like an arrow and more like a feather, with the prevailing direction of travel determined by the dollar. Current gold price weakness is likely attributable to some profit-taking…as momentum faded to the upside,” independent analyst Ross Norman said. Bullion hit its highest since August 11 on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook undermined confidence in the independence of the central bank and more broadly in U.S. assets, boosting safe-haven demand. Cook will file a lawsuit to prevent Trump from firing her, her lawyer said, kicking off what could be a protracted legal fight over the White House’s effort to shape U.S. monetary policy. “Market participants will await the decision of U.S. courts (regarding whether) Trump can fire Cook or not, before gold reacts more strongly,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo added. The data focus is on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, due on Friday, after dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium last week. Markets have priced in an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Spot silver fell 0.8% to $38.27 per ounce, platinum was also down 0.8% at $1,337.38 and palladium was 0.2% lower at $1,091.99.”
On the day gold closed up $16.00 at $3404.60, and silver closed up $0.11 at $38.69.
On Thursday the price of gold moved from $3390.00 through $3410.00 in the early trade, finishing the day nicely in the green, creating further buzz. With gold holding above $3400.00, the dollar weakening and the technical picture solid I would not be surprised to see safe haven demand continue to grow. A somewhat bearish concern, the Dollar Index this past month has settled (98.00). And until interest rates move lower the price of gold may be stymied. The wild card here is whether Trump’s attempt at pushing interest rates lower will be successful. If so, gold will strengthen, if not some expect sideways action to continue perhaps into next year.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold hits over one-month peak on lower dollar; US inflation data in focus – “Gold prices rose on Thursday, hitting an over one-month high, as the dollar softened while investors hunkered down for Friday’s U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,407.81 per ounce at 1222 GMT, after hitting $3,408.62, its highest level since July 23, earlier in the session. U.S. December gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,466.30. The dollar index was down 0.3% against a currency basket, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies. Investors are awaiting Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Economists polled by Reuters expect the index to rise 2.6% in July, matching the June figure. “A surprise to the upside would likely strengthen the dollar and increase Treasury yields, weighing on gold prices,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. “The opposite outcome could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, softening the dollar and supporting the precious metal.” Markets expect a more than 87% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s policy meeting next month, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. New York Fed Bank President John Williams said on Wednesday that interest rates could fall at some point, but policymakers will need to gauge upcoming data. Traders are also watching U.S. President Donald Trump’s moves to assert control over the Fed. Earlier this week, Trump said he was firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. “Many see the dispute as a threat to the Fed’s independence and credibility, which is supportive for the precious metal,” said Evangelista. Elsewhere, spot silver was up 1.2% at $39.08 per ounce, platinum rose 0.2% to $1,349.22 and palladium climbed 1.1% to $1,103.82.”
On the day gold closed up $27.20 at $3431.80, and silver closed up $0.50 at $39.19.
On Friday the price of gold was flat on the open but quickly moved to session highs ($3445.00) on fresh safe haven demand and the growing possibility of a quarter point decrease in interest rates coming out of the September FOMC meeting. The bulls are feeling pretty good this week with gold up close to 5% in August and the likelihood of lower interest rates sooner than later. But traders remain worried about tough overhead resistance at $3500.00. Still, with consumer sentiment falling, and the fear of inflation rising higher prices in gold are expected.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey and Sarah Qureshi) – Gold on track for best month in four as inflation data bolsters rate cut bets – “Gold prices held steady on Friday and were poised for their best monthly performance since April, as U.S. inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates next month. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,433.99 per ounce, as of 10:20 a.m. ET (14:20 GMT). Bullion has gained 4.4% in August so far. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $3,497.30. The dollar held steady but was set for a monthly drop of 2.1%. A lower dollar makes gold less expensive for overseas buyers. U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in July while underlying inflation picked up as tariffs on imports raised prices of some goods. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, and was up 2.6% on a year-on-year basis – both in line with expectations. “We have expectations of a Fed rate cut, or potentially two, throughout this year, (which is) generally supportive for commodity prices across the board, including gold and silver,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Traders increased their bets on a 25-basis point rate cut by the U.S. central bank at the September policy meeting to an 89% probability, up from 85% before the data. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Meanwhile, a federal judge on Friday will consider whether to block President Donald Trump temporarily from firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while she pursues a lawsuit claiming Trump has no valid reason to remove her. “Gold is benefiting from this uncertainty (around Fed independence), as shown by inflows into gold ETFs of just under 15 tons in the last two days. Nevertheless, the upside for gold above $3,400 is looking limited,” Commerzbank said in a note. Spot silver added 0.2% to $39.14 per ounce and gained for the fourth straight month. Platinum fell 0.9% to $1,347.77, but was on track for monthly gains, while palladium was also down 0.9% at $1,092.18, heading for a monthly loss.”
On the day gold closed up $41.90 at $3473.70, and silver closed up $1.01 at $40.20.
Platinum closed up $9.30 at $1365.70, and palladium closed up $0.60 at $1105.20.
Just a reminder that Monday September 1 is Labor Day, a federal holiday. Banks, the stock exchange, the post office and Golddealer.com will be closed. Enjoy your three day weekend.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,479.60 and then at $3,500.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $3,442.50 and then at $3,422.20. September silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $39.33 and then at $39.91. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $38.68 and then at $38.00.”
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