Commentary for Friday, July 11, 2025 – Today gold closed up $38.60 at $3356.00, and silver closed up $1.64 at $38.68. Gold and silver finished this week with a bang as gold moved to $3356.00 in the early trade and silver notched a 13 year high. This latest surge will only confirm fears that Trump’s radical tariff policies and his pressure to lower interest rates will cement safe haven demand for physical bullion at least in the short term. Now consider that the Fed may be forced to lower interest rates if not later this year, then perhaps early next year, especially if the US economy wobbles. These bullish forces may yet produce the perfect storm for record high prices in both gold and silver. Today’s investor, however, must give this market more time to develop. Looking for a wild card? It’s interesting that no one has considered the possibility of a “short squeeze” in gold or silver. Last Friday gold closed at $3331.60 / silver at $36.78. On the week gold was up $24.40, and silver was higher by $1.90.
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On Monday gold was choppy after the holiday weekend but managed to move to $3330.00, a one week low, reacting to dollar strength. Gold finished the day almost unchanged. Technically the bulls hold the advantage, but this market looks a bit tired. I would not be surprised to see gold drift lower, over the lack of fresh news. At the same time, I don’t see much upside because the Fed does not seem to be in a hurry to lower interest rates. The pros may play on both sides of the street, buying significant dips and selling significant rallies. This will likely produce a narrow trading band coupled with little buzz in the short term as this market looks for fresh drivers.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold falls to one-week low as dollar firms after tariff deadline extension – “Gold prices retreated to a one-week low on Monday as the dollar firmed and traders digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of his July 9 tariff deadline to August 1 and assertion that the U.S. is close to several trade deals. Spot gold was down 0.8% at $3,307.87 an ounce at 1302 GMT after hitting its lowest since June 30 at $3,296.09. U.S. gold futures lost 0.7% to $3,318. The stronger dollar makes dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. “The market volumes remain quiet at this moment, and price action is probably still just reflecting the latest piece of economic data but also starting to look forward to the potential for trade deals to be announced,” said Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. Last week’s stronger than expected U.S. payroll data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates as early as previously expected. Minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting and speeches by several Fed officials are due this week for further insights into the central bank’s policy path. Elsewhere, China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in June for an eighth consecutive month, official data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Monday. “The PBoC in particular has been diversifying foreign exchange reserves substantially and an uptick in uncertainty and geopolitical risk may speed up the process,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. In other precious metals, spot silver fell 1.6% to $36.32 an ounce, platinum shed 2.9% to $1,350.97 and palladium lost 3% to $1,100.65.”
On the day gold closed up $0.60 at $3332.20, and silver closed down $0.16 at $36.62.
On Tuesday the price of gold seems content to drift lower testing support at the psychologically important level of $3300.00. Gold was off as much as $36.00 in the early morning trade so this looks like a bear raid and may develop into something more serious because this lack of interest in the bullish scenario seems like a carryover from yesterday. My bet is that pricing will remain soft and quiet perhaps trending even lower through this week, given that Trump does not create fresh safe haven waves. This “back and forth” pattern has been with us for months and until the Fed lowers interest rates will likely stay in place. Which does not encourage the physical bullion market. It has been a bit on the quiet side across our trading desk this week, but it is hard for me to believe that geopolitical tension will not cushion current weakness to some degree.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Search for Momentum – “The gold market has been a bit quiet in the early hours of Tuesday, as we continue to look for some type of momentum to get this market moving. Ultimately, gold is a market that I think will be bullish over the longer term, but as things stand right now, it is still working off a lot of fraud. Technical Analysis – The gold market has pulled back just a bit during the trading session here on Tuesday in the early hours, but I still think that we have a lot of buyers out there willing to get involved. Quite frankly, the gold market has been going sideways for several months now after initially shooting straight up in the air. So, with that being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that remains bullish long-term but is working off some of the excess froth. If you think about what’s gone on recently, it does make a certain amount of sense that we are going sideways because, quite frankly, we had shot straight up in the air, we had a lot of geopolitical events, we had some concerns about a tariff war, and everything else. And now I think the market is just wiped out. I just don’t think that anybody is willing to throw a ton of money into the market, especially now that we are in the middle of summer. That being said, I do think pullbacks will continue to attract buyers from a longer-term standpoint, as the market has been very bullish for quite some time. And I do think that continues to be what we look to. The $3200 level underneath should continue to be support, assuming that we even break below the 50-day EMA. On the upside, we have the $3,500 level, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where traders will be paying close attention to previous resistance. If we can clear that area, then we have a real shot at this market, perhaps going much higher. The measured move from the consolidation would be for a target of $3,800, but quite frankly, we need some type of catalyst to make that happen. Silver Continues to Threaten Ceiling – “The silver market continues to look very bullish as we continue to threaten the crucial $37.50 ceiling. At this point, it is probably only a matter of time before it breaks out, but you should be aware of the fact that this is a very volatile market. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially tried to rally during the early hours on Tuesday but gave back those gains rather quickly. This isn’t to say that the market looks weak. It just looks like it doesn’t have enough momentum to break above the crucial $37.50 level. If in fact it did though, that would be a very bullish sign, allowing silver to perhaps grind its way towards the $40 level based on the measured move of the consolidation that we are currently in. The market pulling back at this point in time would make quite a bit of sense because we have been consolidating and I do think that there are plenty of places that traders will be looking to get involved. The low from Monday, right around the $36.40 level, could be an area of interest based on the orders put in the market 24 hours ago. But even if we were to break down below there, the $36 level as well as the $35 level are both rather crucial. The $35 level being the bottom of the range, of course, makes it incredibly important. And now that the 50-day EMA is hanging around that same area, it makes a lot of sense that it is only more solidified at this point. And with this, I think you are looking at dips as buying opportunities until we get some type of external factor to blow through the roof here, possibly setting up the next great bull phase in this market.”
On the day gold closed $25.20 at $3307.00, and silver closed down $0.15 at $36.47.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved from about unchanged, to mildly in the green, so we have a quiet trade, unable to take advantage of yesterday’s higher close. This lack of bullish conviction is likely the result of a stronger dollar as seen in the Dollar Index which has moved a full point higher since last Friday. That being said professionals still see plenty of support for current gold prices in the longer term. This market is however looking for a fresh spark to refocus on bullish sentiment. In the meantime, tariffs should underpin safe haven demand.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold hits one-week low as dollar gains; trade talks in focus – “old prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened, while investors monitored developments in trade negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,297.19 per ounce, as of 9:23 am ET (1323 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since June 30 earlier. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $3,306.10. The U.S. dollar index hovered near a two-week high, making bullion less attractive for overseas buyers. The yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes remained close to a three-week peak. “In the short term, I note that the dollar is bouncing off those recent lows a little bit, taking some of the wind out of the sails of the gold market… from a longer term perspective gold prices are well supported,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. On the trade front, the European Union said it was working on reaching a deal with the United States by the end of the month, while Trump promised that he would deliver further tariff notices on unnamed countries. Investors are also focused on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, due at 2:00 pm ET (1800 GMT) for any hints on central bank’s interest rate trajectory. Minutes from the Fed’s June 17-18 meeting are expected to show a divided central bank hesitant to commit to rate cuts amid uncertainty over the inflation impact of Trump’s tariff hikes. “We would expect out of those minutes today to reiterate the likelihood that the Fed will not be lowering rates at its July meeting and the earliest would be at its September meeting,” Meger added. Gold usually does well in uncertain times but tends to struggle when interest rates are high, since it doesn’t earn interest. Spot silver fell 1% to $36.40 per ounce, platinum shed 0.3% to $1,355.69 and palladium lost 1.5% to $1,094.44.”
On the day gold closed up $4.60 at $3311.60, and silver closed down $0.12 at $36.35.
On Thursday gold was choppy between $3328.00 and $3314.00. The early rally was sold but gold managed to finish the day mildly in the green. There is, however, solid resistance at $3400.00 so this trade may remain lethargic – carried over from Wednesday. Still, if you are looking for fireworks be patient as the possibility of lower interest rates may become more promising sooner than later, if the Trump rhetoric becomes a reality. The early walk in cash trade was quiet but picked up substantially in the afternoon. The public is asking questions which suggests safe haven demand remains solid. There is tension right below the surface in this trade.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Safe-haven gold firms on elevated trade tensions – “Gold prices nudged higher on Thursday as rising trade tensions steered market participants toward the safety of bullion, though gains were limited by an uptick in the dollar. Spot gold was up 0.4% to $3,326.48 per ounce by 1307 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $3,335.10. “I think generally the whole metals complex is up because of the knock-on effects of copper being tariffed,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “However, there is limited upside seen unless a significant geopolitical escalation occurs.” U.S. President Donald Trump launched a further tariff assault on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August 1. There is a “rising appeal for gold among emerging economy nations, which see the metal’s counterparty-free qualities as attractive in a world burdened by persistent geopolitical risk,” Paul Wong, Market Strategist at Sprott Asset Management said in a note. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting showed only “a couple” of officials said they felt interest rates could be reduced as soon as this month, with most policymakers remaining worried about the inflationary pressure they expect to come from tariffs. Limiting price upside, the U.S. dollar index drifted 0.2% higher. Gold tends to lose appeal when the U.S. dollar strengthens, as it becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies. On the data front, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting employers may be holding on to workers despite other indications of a cooling labor market. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.4% to $36.82 per ounce. “Breaking above the $35 level increases the likelihood of reaching the $40 target,” Wong added. Platinum gained 0.3% to $1,350.95, and palladium climbed 3.5% to $1,144.40.”
On the day gold closed up $5.80 at $3317.40, and silver closed up $0.69 at $37.04.
On Friday gold woke up at the upper end of its current trading range and challenged $3360.00 in the short term. In the physical bullion world, most bulls consider the price of gold to be still cheap when adjusted for real inflation numbers. But if you do some digging you will find reasonable sources that claim that the current price of gold is about right. You will also find many who claim that the reason gold is at or approaching all-time highs is the result of world tension which translates into strong safe haven demand. In my opinion, however, you will always find a true gold bull believes the price of gold must continue higher because the stack of fiat paper money never goes down regardless of who is in the White House. This is my personal belief and the core reason I always keep a percentage of my net worth in gold and silver bullion, no matter what the price may be on any given day. The above is only my personal take but it has turned into a kind of safe haven hedge which allows me to sleep better in these troubled times.
On the day gold closed up $38.60 at $3356.00, and silver closed up $1.64 at $38.68.
Platinum closed up $57.10 at $1452.00, and palladium closed up $86.10 at $1273.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,250.50. First resistance is seen at $3,376.90 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,332.30 and then at $3,300.00. September silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh power late this week. Prices have seen a bullish upside breakout from a sideways trading range at higher levels. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $36.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $38.485 and then at $39.00. Next support is seen at $38.00 and then at the low of $37.51.
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