Commentary for Friday, Sept 5, 2025 – Today gold closed up $47.40 at $3613.20, and silver closed up $0.16 at $41.07. This week was a happy one for the bulls as gold rallied to all-time highs reacting to disappointing US jobs data as some experts believe the marketplace is now factoring in three quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. That kind of expected rate cut in such a short time is very bullish and suggests that even higher gold prices are expected by insiders. I however fall into the camp which believes today’s price jump is a kind of bubble (“Too Soon” & “Too Much”) which may lead to profit taking in the short term. Last Friday gold closed at $3473.70 / silver at $40.20. On the week gold was higher by $139.50, and silver was higher by $0.87.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
September 1st was Labor Day. Banks, Wall Street, USPS and Golddealer.com were closed.
On Tuesday the price of gold dipped on the open, testing support at $3470.00 but traders bought this weakness and pushed prices to record highs ($3540.00). Investors are getting more convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates at the next FOMC held on September 16th and 17th. Further helping this bullish buzz is rising tension over Trump’s next political move which may cement physical bullion in the form of safe haven demand. Everyone seems to be getting on this bullish train as Suki Cooper of Standard Bank sees $3700.00 gold before year end. I’m optimistic about higher gold prices but believe $3700.00 gold will likely wait until next year.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold hits record high over $3,500 per ounce, as focus turns to payrolls data – “Gold held firm after surging to an all-time high above $3,500 per ounce on Tuesday, with investors piling into the metal on growing conviction of a Federal Reserve rate cut and lingering political and economic risks. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,491.47 per ounce as of 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,508.50. Bullion has gained 33% this year. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.1% to $3,554.30. “The gold market is entering a seasonally strong period for consumption, coupled with expectations for a rate cut at the September Fed meeting. We continue to expect new record highs,” said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. “We continue to expect further upside risk for gold prices and forecast gold to average $3,500/oz in Q3-25 and $3,700/oz in Q4-25,” Cooper added. Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Non-yielding gold typically benefits in a lower interest rate environment. Analysts say gold’s record run this year has been underpinned by sustained central bank purchases, diversification away from the U.S. dollar, resilient safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade frictions, and broad dollar weakness. Uncertainty around U.S. policy under President Donald Trump has added to the appeal. His public clashes with the Fed, including criticism of Chair Jerome Powell and a push to remove Governor Lisa Cook, have raised concerns over central bank independence. “The accusations against Cook are a clear warning to other FOMC members to bow to government pressure for substantial rate cuts … This makes gold investments more attractive in such an environment,” Commerzbank said in a note, referring to the Federal Open Market Committee. Attention now turns to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on Friday for cues on the size of a September rate cut. A weak job print this week could reignite the conversation around the possibility of a 50 bps rate cut at the meeting, said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. “I do not think this will happen, even if we get a poor NFP print, but market participants may start to price in the possibility, and that could fuel the gold rally,” Vawda added. ETF inflows are reinforcing the rally. SPDR Gold Trust , the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 1.01% on Friday to 977.68 tons, the highest since August 2022. Spot silver was down 0.5% at $40.48 per ounce, after hitting its highest since September 2011 earlier in the session. Platinum lost 0.7% to $1,389.75 and palladium fell 1.4% to $1,121.75.”
On the day gold closed up $75.70 at $3549.40, and silver closed up $0.87 at $41.07.
On Wednesday the price of gold once again added to recent upward momentum as it topped $3565.00 and sentiment supporting a rate cut this September 17 grows with investors and traders. Continued confusion over Trump’s next move also supports higher gold, some claiming that $3900.00 is right around the corner. While I’m still bullish on gold and silver prices, we are due for a welcomed round of profit taking which will relieve short term tension and set the stage for fresh record prices, even as the dollar continues to weaken – a longer term bullish plus.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Rate Cut Odds and Tariff Tensions Fuel $3,900 Gold Price Prediction – “Gold prices soared to a new all-time high of $3,561.39 on Wednesday, extending their winning streak to a seventh consecutive session and marking ten straight days off the recent low at $3,311.56. The move places gold well above key technical support at $3,500.20 – the previous record high—and firmly entrenched in a strong uptrend. Traders are watching the potential for a run toward $3,879.64, a key technical target projected by swing chart analysis. Momentum has taken control of the rally, with gold trading significantly above its 50-day moving average of $3,360.50, reinforcing the bullish structure. The steepness and duration of this move suggest momentum, rather than defined support and resistance levels, are dictating price action. Dollar Weakness Adds to Gold’s Upside Case – Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming September 17 policy meeting continue to grow, with CME FedWatch now pricing in a 92% chance of a 25 basis-point cut. As non-yielding gold typically thrives in low-rate environments, these expectations are a core driver behind the current surge. Additionally, persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar – down over 9% year-to-date – has further bolstered gold’s appeal by lowering the cost for foreign buyers. Adding to the pressure on the dollar are renewed concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. President Trump’s public criticism of Chair Jerome Powell and a recent, unprecedented attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook have stirred unease about political interference, a factor weighing on USD sentiment and strengthening gold’s safe-haven appeal. Tariff Tensions and Geopolitical Risks Supporting Bid – Fresh trade uncertainty emerged after the Trump administration moved to fast-track a Supreme Court review on tariffs that were recently ruled illegal by an appellate court. The political and legal wrangling over tariffs is being watched by investors, many of whom see gold as a hedge against growing trade instability and legal deadlock in Washington. Independent analyst Ross Norman noted, “Gold provides a welcome respite from market turbulence,” while others see the metal as potentially extending gains in the $3,600–$3,900 range in the coming weeks. Momentum Points to Further Upside – With momentum running hot, support holding firm at $3,500.20, and external factors including Fed policy uncertainty, a weakening dollar, and trade tensions continuing to support the bid, the gold rally shows no immediate signs of stalling. All eyes are now on Friday’s non-farm payrolls data for clues on the Fed’s rate decision. Until then, the gold market remains in bullish territory, with the next major resistance likely forming around the $3,879.64 level. A confirmed break above $3,600 would further strengthen the case for continued upside in the near term. Silver Rally Gains Momentum as Bullish News Lifts Price Toward $44.22 – Silver (XAG/USD) extended its rally Wednesday, mirroring gold’s surge as market bets on a September Fed rate cut intensified and long-end Treasury yields briefly broke above 5%. After breaking through resistance at $40.93, silver is now targeting $44.22 – its next key upside level. The rally puts silver well above its 50-day moving average at $38.00, underscoring bullish momentum. However, this positioning also leaves the metal exposed to sharp, temporary pullbacks that may not disrupt the broader uptrend. Traders are advised to stay alert to short-term reversals, especially as headline risks mount. Fed Policy in Focus as Rate Cut Odds Hit 92% – CME FedWatch now shows a 92% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting. This has lit a fire under non-yielding assets like silver and gold, which benefit from a lower interest rate environment. The shift in rate expectations follows growing concerns about the Fed’s independence and increasing political interference. Public friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve intensified this week. President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook—now facing legal resistance—has stoked fears of political encroachment into central bank operations. Nearly 600 economists have signed an open letter defending the Fed’s autonomy, adding to uncertainty around future monetary policy. The U.S. dollar, already down over 9% year-to-date, continues to lose ground as political and trade tensions simmer. For silver, a weaker greenback enhances appeal for foreign buyers and further supports upward price action. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury markets have become increasingly sensitive to legal and political developments. The 30-year yield briefly crossed the 5% mark on Tuesday before pulling back to 4.936% on Wednesday. This move came in response to a federal appeals court ruling that deemed most of Trump’s import tariffs illegal—raising the possibility of multibillion-dollar refunds and renewed fiscal uncertainty. $44.22 Target in Sight But Watch for Volatility – Silver remains in a firm uptrend with momentum favoring higher prices in the short term. As long as the metal holds above its 50-day moving average and macro drivers like a weakening dollar, dovish Fed outlook, and Treasury yield volatility stay intact, bulls are in control. Immediate resistance sits at $44.22, while any pullbacks toward $40.93 could offer renewed entry points for long positions. A confirmed close above $42 would increase the probability of testing the upper range.”
On the day gold closed up $43.80 at $3593.20, and silver closed up $0.47 at $41.54.
On Thursday the price of gold dipped on likely profit taking after Wednesday’s close to the upside of $43.80. This should have been expected sooner or later simply because at some point the power of profit taking sets in and even the bulls move to the sidelines and await fresh trading information. While the gold technical picture remains solid and the bulls are now touting $3700.00 gold, I’m less optimistic because gold has been hanging around $3500.00 since May of this year and seems to have lost its bullish momentum. Even though there are plenty of reasons to suspect safe haven demand is not heading south. In the meantime, traders and investors should be looking for a fresh spark to what looks like sagging momentum in the short term. On the plus side there may not be much downside if the dollar continues to trend lower.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold slips after record rally, US payrolls report on radar – “Gold prices slipped on Thursday as traders took profits following a record-breaking rally, with spotlight now shifting to the U.S. payrolls report for fresh cues on Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $3,553.75 per ounce by 9:35 a.m. EDT (1336 GMT), while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.6% to $3,613.80. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday. This comes after spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,578.50 on Wednesday, as weak job opening data cemented U.S. rate cut bets and lingering uncertainties supported safe-haven demand. Data earlier in the day showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week. “With Fed rate cut expectations already largely priced in, tomorrow’s monthly jobs report becomes the key focal point. Any shift in that outlook would directly impact the dollar and, by extension, gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Several Fed officials who spoke on Wednesday said labor market worries continue to animate their belief that rate cuts still lie ahead for the central bank. The market is now pricing in a 98% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut this month, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to perform well in low interest rate environments and during periods of uncertainty. Fed’s independence will be in focus as U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic advisor Stephen Miran faces a Senate Banking Committee hearing at 10 a.m. EDT on his nomination, amid Trump’s push to exert greater influence over the central bank. Goldman Sachs said gold prices could surge well above its $4,000 per troy ounce baseline by mid-2026, should private investors diversify more heavily into the metal. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.7% to $40.89 per ounce, after hitting its highest since September 2011 on Wednesday. Platinum lost 2.6% to $1,384.39 and palladium shed 1.5% to $1,133.20.”
On the day gold closed down $27.40 at $3565.80, and silver closed down $0.63 at $40.91.
On Friday the price of gold made fresh record highs and not surprisingly big buyers and big sellers charged our trading desk. This turn of events suggests real uncertainty as some ask whether the Fed finds itself in a tight spot and hits the panic button. (Tai Wong, independent metals trader) – “The outlook is undoubtedly bullish for gold as labor concerns override inflation for the short, probably medium term. However, I think we are still too far away from 4,000 (gold) unless there is massive dislocation.” This makes a lot of sense to me so don’t get carried away with this latest pop to the upside as caution here may prove rewarding in the short term.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold hits record high, nears $3,600/oz as weak US jobs data fuels rate-cut bets – “Gold’s powerful rally took on fresh legs on Friday, with prices hitting a record high and getting closer to $3,600 per ounce, as weak U.S. jobs data further raised expectations for a bullion-supportive Federal Reserve rate cuts. Spot gold was up 1.4% at $3,596.49 per ounce, as of 1402 GMT, having hit a record $3,596.76 earlier. The metal is now on track for its strongest weekly gain in nearly four months. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 1.3% to $3,653.30. Bullion has surged 37% so far this year after a 27% gain in 2024 – driven by U.S. dollar weakness, central bank buying, a softening monetary policy backdrop and wider geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Data showed U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%, confirming that labor market conditions were softening. Traders are now betting an 84% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut and a 16% chance of a 50 basis-point cut in September. “Gold makes new highs; bulls are looking at the weakening trend of employment translating into multiple rate cuts,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “The outlook is undoubtedly bullish for gold as labor concerns override inflation for the short, probably medium term. However, I think we are still too far away from 4,000 unless there is a massive dislocation,” Wong added. Analysts have also flagged the independence of the Fed as a key factor in shaping gold’s trajectory – an issue thrust into the spotlight after U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and put repeated pressure on the central bank to slash rates. Bullion, which does not pay interest, tends to shine when rates are low and uncertainty is high, making it a go-to asset for investors seeking safety. China and India are top gold consumers. Physical demand for gold in these hubs dropped this week due to record high prices. August gold in reserves data from China’s central bank, due on Sunday, will not catch the September record highs, but may still provide clarity on how demand from central banks was being affected by high bullion prices. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.5% to $41.29 per ounce and was heading for its third consecutive weekly gain. Platinum gained 1.9% to $1,393.25 and palladium fell 0.1% at $1,126.45.”
On the day gold closed up $47.40 at $3613.20, and silver closed up $0.16 at $41.07.
Platinum closed up $10.50 at $1381.70, and palladium closed down $13.90 at $1111.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,700.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,500.00. First resistance is seen at $3,650.00 and then at $3,675.00. First support is seen at $3,600.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $3,573.70. December silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $45.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $38.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $42.29 and then at $43.00. Next support is seen at $41.00 and then at this week’s low of $40.55.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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