Commentary for Friday, Dec 12, 2025 – Today gold closed up $14.60 at $4300.10, and silver closed down $2.57 at $61.36. While the momentum players will be disappointed with how gold prices finished today, it may not be an overstatement to call this a watershed week for both gold and silver. Now don’t get me wrong, I would not go out and mortgage the house to buy metals this week even though some commentors expect higher prices by the first quarter of next year. But if you have been quietly accumulating gold and silver bullion over the longer term, I would not soon be an aggressive seller. Patience here might prove rewarding because interest rates will likely continue to move lower. And the dollar index has lost 2 full points this month. The gold to silver ratio is also getting attention. The ratio is found by dividing the price of gold by the price of silver, today the ratio is 71. This is historically high and favors selling silver and buying gold. Last Friday gold closed at $4212.90, and silver closed $58.42. On the week gold was higher by $87.20, and silver was higher by $2.94.
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On Monday the price of gold tested support at $4175.00, and gold finished the day in the red, a somewhat bearish sign. But I don’t expect much downside at this point regardless of what the FOMC decides to do with rates this week. A rate cut is expected, and this will boost the price of gold, but the current negative downward drift is not going to disappear in my opinion. The reason is that even the FOMC may be unsure how to deal with the next round of inflation. They could turn to the bearish side and stand pat, which obviously would not be good for gold.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Sideways Action Ahead of Fed – Gold trades in a choppy early-Monday range as price action stalls above $4,200 ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Traders await clarity on the tone of the expected rate cut while watching key levels at $3,950 and $4,400. Technical Analysis – The gold market is very choppy at the moment, and Monday looks like it is going to be more of the same. We are essentially spinning our wheels just above the crucial $4,200 level, a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be watching closely. The $4,200 level is going to be a market memory type place, as we had seen both support and resistance there previously. So, it does make sense that we’re hanging out here. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision on Wednesday, and a lot of traders, although they expect an interest rate cut, will want to see what the tone of the cut is. Federal Reserve Tone and Market Reaction – Will the Federal Reserve sound extremely dovish, or will they give what is known as a hawkish cut, meaning that they cut, but it doesn’t sound like they’re on autopilot to start cutting even further? I suspect that would be the case. However, market participants aren’t sure, I think, and they’re just killing time at the moment, waiting to see what the next central bank guidance will be. I do think short-term pullbacks get bought into, and I really don’t have any interest in shorting gold until we break down below $3,950. Something that’s not likely to happen in the short term. To the upside, if we do start to rally for whatever reason, $4,400 is your target. That’s where we had seen a lot of selling previously. Silver Continues to Watch the $60 Level – Silver trades noisily early Monday as it consolidates just below $60, with traders watching for momentum to drive a breakout. Pullbacks remain favored buying opportunities, while upside targets extend toward $62.50 amid limited known resistance. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gone back and forth in the early hours of Monday as we continue to consolidate just shy of the $60 level. This does make a certain amount of sense because, quite frankly, if we are going to break out to the upside, we will need to build up the necessary momentum to make that move. Short-term pullbacks, I think, are still buying opportunities, although, truthfully, I’d prefer to see silver pull back towards the $55 level, where I think there will be a lot of interest, mainly due to market memory and the fact that that was basically where we had broken out in the recent past. So, I am looking for that, but I also recognize that silver is a very impulsive market under the best of circumstances. So, it is possible that it just shoots straight up in the air. That could be a thing as well. So, with that being the case, it’s a one-way trade. think pretty much everybody knows that. You’d have to be very reckless to start shorting silver. Silver Is Overheated – But I also recognize that moves like this, sooner or later, might be much later, the way things are going, end in tears. But right now, this is clearly a buy on the dip market. We are consolidating, and we are trying to figure out whether or not we can make the next push higher. If we can, then that probably opens up $62.50 or so; really, there’s nothing to measure. There’s no resistance barrier above that we know of other than the usual large, round, psychologically significant figures. But that’s probably what you’re to have to use the guide where you’re aiming for if you do in fact find yourself buying.
On the day gold closed down $25.70 at $4187.20, and silver closed down $0.64 at $57.78.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved to a session high of $4207.00 in early trading and closed the day nicely in the green. This might suggest that the Fed will lower interest rates another quarter point as the FOMC meets this week. This latest confab will provide further information as to how they see the latest inflation data. Chief Powell’s actual decision will not be made public until after the markets close this coming Wednesday. This latest decision may not provide a definitive direction for the price of gold or silver because we now have a very nuanced market. Still, I believe this resting bull market has plenty of time to make all-time highs next year given our government continues to print fiat currency 24 hours a day 7 days a week.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold rises ahead of Fed rate cut decision, key US jobs data – Gold rose on Tuesday as traders remained optimistic ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, while also awaiting the U.S. job openings report for further clues on labor market strength. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,193.14 per ounce by 0922 a.m. ET (14:22 GMT), after falling to its lowest level since December 2 earlier today. U.S. gold futures for February delivery also added 0.1% to $4,222.20 per ounce. “There’s expectation of another 25-basis-point rate cut, which is generally bullish for gold. The market remains strong and could move to contract highs after the Fed announcement,” said RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting kicks off today and ends with a decision on Wednesday. Fresh data show inflation is still stubborn and running above the Fed’s 2% target, even as secondary indicators hint the once‑red‑hot labor market is starting to cool in some sectors. Traders now see an 89.4% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this week. Investors are also awaiting Tuesday’s 10 a.m. ET release of the October JOLTS report, to gauge labor market conditions. If the job openings report is softer-than-expected, gold could rally, Haberkorn said. Silver climbed 1.1% to $58.78 per ounce, trading near the record-high level of $59.32. “A gold-silver ratio of 70 ounces is close to the average over the last couple of decades, but historically we’ve gone as low as 40. So, there’s definitely room for outperformance,” said Maria Smirnova, senior portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Sprott Asset Management. It currently takes 71 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold , compared with 82 ounces in October. “Metals are volatile, but unless we fix the deficit, silver only has one way to go, and that is up,” Smirnova added. Platinum gained 0.1% to $1,646.03/oz, while palladium rose 0.6% to $1,474.28/oz.
On the day gold closed up $19.50 at $4206.70, and silver closed up $2.39 at $60.17.
On Wednesday the price of gold drifted lower, testing support at $4190.00 as investors wait for an update from Chief Powell based on the latest inflation numbers. The oddsmakers expect a second cut in interest rates sooner than later but keep in mind that Powell will be replaced by Trump in early 2026. Trump strongly favors lower interest rates so it figures that the frontrunner in this replacement race (Kevin Hassett) will hold similar views. Lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tension worldwide may set the stage for record highs in gold next year. After the market closed the Fed did lower interest rates as expected, which helped bullish sentiment and prices moved to session highs of $4225.00. But the Fed did not provide much in the way of guidance for 2026, which figures. They are still trying to keep all options open just in case.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi and Anushree Ashish Mukerjee) – Gold slips ahead of Fed’s rate decision; silver drifts near record high – Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors booked profits ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks later today, while silver hovered below record high levels. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,198.28 per ounce at 0948 a.m. ET (14:48 GMT). U.S. gold futures for February delivery inched 0.2% lower to $4,227.40 per ounce. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $60.56/oz, after hitting an all-time high of $61.61 earlier in the session. “All you really want to make note of right now is some light profit-taking ahead of the Fed meeting- a very highly anticipated event later this afternoon,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET (1900 GMT), with Powell scheduled to speak at 2:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT). Traders are pricing in an 89.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, and expect further easing in 2026. “We might be on a path of rate cut and pause… we still believe we’re in a sideways-to-higher uptrend, with just a little bit of a pause,” Meger added. The meeting is among the most divisive in years, as policymakers weigh lowering borrowing costs to support the labor market against the risk of reigniting inflation. A lack of fresh economic data following the recent 43-day government shutdown, coupled with uncertainty over who will lead the Fed next year, adds to the challenge. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, a proponent of rate cuts, is seen as a front-runner for the role. Meanwhile, silver has surged 110% so far this year, supported by rising industrial demand, falling inventories, and its designation as a critical mineral by the U.S. “We believe the gold-silver ratio, which had been extended to over 100, is coming back to some type of historical norm at this point in time,” Meger said. It now takes 69 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold , down from 82 ounces in October.
On the day gold closed down $10.30 at $4196.40, and silver closed up $0.21 at $60.38.
On Thursday the price of gold took some time to get started but finally reacted to the latest Fed interest rate cut and soaring to session highs of $4285.50. Silver also soared up $3.55 at $63.93. Also helping bullish sentiment in both metals will be the soon to be named replacement for the stalwart Chief Powell. The new choice will likely be one who follows Trump’s lead as he beats the drum for lower interest rates. For now, I don’t see shorting gold, using the profit taking scenario. But the physical metals are volatile and subject to powerful crosswinds. Premiums are also volatile, rising and falling without warning. Still, I would not be surprised to see fresh records for gold and silver next year reacting to expected lower interest rates. Ignore rumors that the new chief will be in Trump’s pocket, the FOMC will react to inflation threats as usual.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Remains Choppy After FOMC – Gold trades sideways as traders weigh the impact of Fed rate cuts and a $40 billion bond buyback program. Despite strong long-term momentum and central-bank demand, near-term hesitation suggests potential pullbacks within the broader uptrend. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday but has given back some of those gains as we continue to consolidate and go sideways. All things being equal, this is a market that I think is trying to figure out what to do with itself for a bigger move, and short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to look at the $4,200 level, which is an area that’s been important for a couple of weeks. The Federal Reserve cutting interest rates wasn’t a surprise, but the bond buyback program of $40 billion a month might have been. That being said, it was not enough to push gold to the upside, and now the question is, what are we waiting for? Concerns Around the Reaction to Fed Policy – I don’t know, but the fact that it did not scream to the upside is a little bit concerning. One would think that the quantitative easing, although the Federal Reserve refuses to call it that, would be enough to send this market higher. A pullback might be imminent, but that pullback is in the context of a larger uptrend. And I do think that we continue to see more buy-on-the-dip type of attitudes. The 50-day EMA coincides quite nicely with the uptrend line in the channel. And I think you’ve got a situation where value hunters will certainly be interested in a market that’s been very bullish for quite some time. Central banks around the world continue to buy gold, and I think that also adds a little bit of credence to the overall uptrend. I have no interest in shorting. I do have an interest in buying cheap gold, though. Silver Rally Hits Records as Silver Analysis Flags Crowd Risk – Silver hits record highs as bullish momentum extends, but stretched levels raise correction risks as traders watch key support and tight supply fuels the silver outlook. Spot silver keeps grinding higher, and Thursday’s move to a fresh record at $62.89 shows buyers still have the upper hand. That said, the market is starting to look a little stretched — especially with price widening out from the 50-day moving average at $51.85. The trend is bullish, no debate there, but when silver outruns its own support structure by this much, traders usually start asking the same question: who’s left to chase it? With silver trading at uncharted levels, there’s no ceiling overhead. The nearest real trend marker sits all the way down at the $56.46 swing bottom, and the rally off that level has now stretched more than $6. A move of that size tends to be fine as long as buyers stay energetic — but if they step back even briefly, overleveraged longs can get squeezed out in a hurry. The trailing 50% pullback for the $56.46–$62.89 leg sits at $59.67, and that number will keep climbing as long as silver presses higher. Traders should keep that level in the notebook; it’s the spot where dip-buyers may be willing to step in if we get a shakeout. Fundamentals still lean firmly toward higher prices. Silver is up 115% year-to-date – huge, even by this market’s standards – thanks to strong industrial demand, thinning inventories, and the boost from being added to the U.S. critical minerals list. That mix matters. It turns silver into a two-engine market: part monetary metal, part growth commodity. As long as industrial buyers stay active, dips may be harder to come by than bears hope. Analysts point out that stockpiling could pick up now that silver carries critical-mineral status. If that happens, the supply tightness already visible this year could worsen, keeping bears uncomfortable. Or as Norman put it, the market has “a phenomenal tailwind” – and traders seem to be trading it that way. Near term, momentum favors the upside, but the setup is fragile and a sharp correction wouldn’t be surprising. The bigger silver gets above its trend markers, the more tempting profit-taking becomes. A pullback into $59.67 wouldn’t break the trend – it would probably strengthen it. A deeper slide toward $56.46 would test whether bulls really want to defend the move. Bottom line: the market still wants higher prices, but traders should be sizing with respect for how violent silver can be when the crowd steps away for even a minute.
On the day gold closed up $89.10 at $4285.50, and silver closed up $3.55 at $63.93.
On Friday gold pricing action while positive remains a bit suspicious given the gigantic jump to the upside on Thursday. Yes, gold hit seven week highs on safe demand supported by a weaker dollar, but traders sold this early rally, and it looks like we closed only modestly into the green. The price of silver is still raging which also makes me nervous. I’m not a big silver bullion fan at these prices but the dedicated silver bulls believe fresh record prices are always right around the corner. Still, the distribution of physical silver bullion can easily become skewed and create an authentic short squeeze…which is usually overhyped as the market becomes overheated. Still, the big drop to the downside is disappointing to the bulls but just part of this very volatile game.
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold hits seven-week high on safe-haven demand; silver notches peak – Gold prices rose 1% to a seven-week high on Friday, bolstered by a soft dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven demand prompted by geopolitical turbulence, while silver hit a record high. Spot gold rose 1% to $4,327.31 per ounce by 1248 GMT, its highest level since October 21, and was set for a 3.1% weekly gain. U.S. gold futures gained 1.2% to $4,363.20. The dollar hovered near a two-month low and was on track for a third straight weekly drop, making bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. “The sharp rise in U.S. weekly jobless claims as well as U.S.-Venezuela tensions are underpinning gold and keeping haven demand strong,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. U.S. jobless claims rose by the most in nearly 4-1/2 years last week, reversing the sharp drop seen in the previous week. The U.S. Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year on Wednesday but indicated caution on additional cuts. Investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts next year, and next week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report could provide further clues on the Fed’s future policy path. Non-yielding assets such as gold tend to benefit in low-interest-rate environment. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil following the seizure of a tanker this week. Meanwhile, India saw widening gold discounts this week as demand remained subdued despite the wedding season, while high spot prices dented demand in China. Spot silver rose 0.8% to $64.09 per ounce, after hitting a new record high of $64.56/oz and is headed for a 10% weekly gain. Prices have more than doubled this year, supported by strong industrial demand, dwindling inventories and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list. “Silver is supported by industrial demand amid fears of shortages, a continued tight market, and the speculative frenzy, mostly from retail investors which has helped drive inflows to Silver ETFs,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Elsewhere, platinum was up 3.2% at $1,750.35, while palladium climbed 2.6% to $1,523.10. Both were headed for a weekly rise.
On the day gold closed up $14.60 at $4300.10, and silver closed down $2.57 at $61.36.
Platinum closed up $49.30 at $1757.10, and palladium closed up $1.50 at $1514.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at $4,400.00 and then at $4,433.00. First support is seen at $4,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,295.50. March silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a close below support at $57.00. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then at $66.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $63.125 and then at $62.00.
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