Commentary for Feb, 20, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $83.40 at $5059.30, and silver closed up $4.71 at $82.28. I’m surprised that increased safe haven demand and a weaker dollar that gold has not regained its bullish spark. I’m really surprised that Trump’s threatening Iran with “bad things” if they do not give up nuclear ambitions did not create fireworks. This approach is tied to the US and Israeli armed forces. If Israel goes in to clean up this mess a second time, they will make sure there is not a third attempt by Iran to create trouble in the Middle East. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail. Last Friday gold closed at $5022.00, and silver closed at $77.85. On the week gold was up $37.30, and silver closed up $4.43.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. The present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the domestic gold market was closed for Presidents Day.
On Tuesday the price of gold rose to session highs of $4940.00 in early trade. This rally was sold and gold tested support around $4850.00, the market finishing the day heavily in the red as traders reacted to rising strength in the dollar. The perhaps deescalating geopolitical situation is also encouraging bearish sentiment. But I would be careful of claims from either side relative to this power struggle in the Middle East. I can’t believe Israel will go for any change in the status quo which allows Iran the possibility of nuclear weapons. But for now, gold prices are weaker and may continue to move lower as this market struggles to develop fresh bullish sentiment.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold slides more than 2% on easing geopolitical tensions and firmer dollar – Gold fell by more than 2% on Tuesday as signs of progress in U.S.–Iran talks drove investors away from safe-haven assets, while a stronger dollar added to the pressure to sell. Spot gold fell 1.9% to $4,896.09 per ounce by 09:26 a.m. ET (1426 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery declined 2.6% to $4,914.40 per ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5% against a basket of currencies, making bullion priced in the currency more expensive for overseas buyers. “Bull markets need to be fed fresh fundamental fodder often and with the gold and silver markets, there’s been a lack of fresh bullish fundamental news lately to drive prices still higher,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Iran and the United States reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” in a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday, but work needs to be done, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. Negotiators from Ukraine and Russia also gathered in Geneva for two days of U.S.-mediated peace talks. Wyckoff said the talks underlined the negatives for gold and silver. “If the U.S. can avoid attacking Iran, market anxiety would ease and that would be negative for safe-haven gold and silver, and same applies to the Russia‑Ukraine talks,” he added. Investors are awaiting the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting, due on Wednesday, and the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures report for December, due on Friday, for clues on the U.S. central bank’s interest-rate outlook. Markets so far anticipate the first interest rate cut of the year will be in June. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments. Many Asian markets were closed on Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holidays, including mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. Spot silver fell 2.9% to $74.36 per ounce, after dropping as low as $72.37 earlier in the session. Spot platinum fell 1.2% to $2,015.81 per ounce, while palladium lost 2.9% to $1,675.17.
On the day gold closed down $139.10 at $4882.90, and silver closed down $4.40 at $73.45.
On Wednesday the price of gold tested support at $4910.00 and then traders pushed prices to daily highs of $5000.00 as gold recovered yesterday’s loss and bullish sentiment got a shot in the arm. Today’s bounce to the upside is not surprising considering the still unresolved geopolitical problems centered in the Middle East. “There is some nervousness about the existing geopolitical tensions both with Iran and the U.S.,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. However, “we’ve been in a very tight trading range for much of February. You can’t really say there’s a clear direction at this point.” The distinction that Marex makes within the context of the geopolitical tension is right to the point. Recent trading ranges are tight, meaning that while gold has support at current numbers it also faces solid overheard resistance. This latest and steep jump to the upside may suggest the return of bargain buying but this is still a tough market to judge in the short term.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold rises as investors weigh geopolitical risks; Fed minutes in focus – Gold rose more than 1% on Wednesday as investors assessed simmering geopolitical risks, while markets also awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes due later in the day. Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,957.70 per ounce by 9:15 a.m. ET (1415 GMT). Bullion prices dropped to $4,841.74 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 0.5% to $4,977.80. “There is some nervousness about the existing geopolitical tensions both with Iran and the U.S.,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. However, “we’ve been in a very tight trading range for much of February. You can’t say there’s a clear direction at this point.” On the geopolitical front, the first day of U.S.-mediated Ukraine–Russia peace talks in Geneva wrapped up after two hours, with President Zelenskiy describing the discussions as “difficult” and accusing Moscow of stalling. Meanwhile, Iran on Tuesday said it reached a set of “guiding principles” with the U.S. for nuclear talks, though its foreign minister cautioned that a final deal is not imminent. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, hit a record high of $5,594.82 on January 29. The non-yielding metal also tends to benefit in low-interest-rate environments. Investors await minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s January 16-17 meeting, due at 2 p.m. on Wed amid easing labor‑market risks and slow progress on inflation. “The narrative has shifted since the last Fed meeting, when policymakers were more cautious. Markets are seeing a different picture now, so I don’t think the minutes will reveal much,” Meir said. Investors will also scrutinize Friday’s U.S. personal consumption expenditure report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for clues on inflation and its potential impact on borrowing costs. Markets currently expect a total of two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in June, per CME’s FedWatch Tool. In other metals, spot silver rose to $76.88 per ounce after declining more 4% on Tuesday.
On the day gold closed up $103.60 at $4986.50, and silver closed up $4.06 at $77.51.
On Thursday the price of gold tested highs at $5020.00 and lows at $4975.00 so we may be stuck at or around $5000.00 – and the longer this continues the better the news for bullish sentiment. Today’s pricing action is strong considering that the Dollar Index this past week has been moving higher, suggesting that interest rates may remain rangebound. Gold may also soon benefit from fresh safe haven demand as the geopolitical tension rises in the Middle East. “The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon,” Axios reported Wednesday. I can’t believe Iran would risk such an attack rather than negotiate its way out of further nuclear development. But an attack is possible. Such an American / Israeli attack would destroy the tenuous Middle East balance, likely sending the metals through the roof at least on the short term. President Trump likes to raise the specter of some sort of cataclysmic event, but I think he’s too smart to step into this trap.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Chop at Large Figure – Gold Continues to Chop at Large Figure – Technical Analysis – The gold market has been very choppy and noisy during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours, as we continue to pay close attention to the 5,000 level, as we have seen for some time now. The 5,000 level of the course is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching; it’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and one would imagine there’s probably quite a bit of options trading right around this range. We are starting to see a little bit of a hawkish FOMC minute release during the previous session, maybe weighing on the idea of the US dollar falling apart, although it’s worth noting the dollar was down a little bit as I record this, and that maybe is weighing on gold just a touch. Yield Pressures and Support Targets – Really, at this point in time, I think we’ll be watching whether or not we liquidate towards the 4,850 level. That might be the case if the 10-year yield starts to jump; maybe if it can sustain a move above 4.10% that might put pressure on here. But in general, I think this is a situation where you’re looking for dips as potential buying opportunities. I also recognize that after this massive run up and this big slamming candlestick to the downside, a little bit of sideways consolidation goes a long way here. I think you will continue to buy dips, but I also recognize that we need a reason to go much higher and right now we just don’t have it. So, it becomes more of a trading range before it’s all said and done. Silver Continues to Look for Momentum as Rallies Fade – Silver continues to be very noisy as we find trouble at $80 during the early hours of Thursday. This has been a pattern for a while. Technical Analysis – The silver market rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise, but ultimately, I think you have a situation where there are a lot of questions when it comes to whether or not we can just break to the upside or are we going to continue to see successive lower highs. The $70 level at the moment is a major floor in the market and as long as we can hang out above there, we’re probably okay. If we can’t, then it’s very possible we go to the 200-day EMA, maybe even $50. Locating the Market Floor – I think the question now isn’t so much whether or not silver can turn things around and rally, I think it’s more or less, where is the floor. The last time we saw a massive spike in silver, the floor was at $12 an ounce. I’m pretty sure it’s not there this time. So, there are a lot of questions to be asked about this, but at this juncture, I believe that we are still in a somewhat buy-on-the-dip situation, but we also need to recognize that these are short-term trades. The longer we go sideways, the better off silver’s going to do and I do expect the range to compress. Maybe $90 won’t be the high, maybe $80 will be the high and 70 will be the floor, we just don’t know yet. Either way, the last thing you want to see is a massive impulsive move, especially to the upside, because it would just signify that the market is still out of control and that we would get another nasty candlestick as we got a couple of weeks ago.
On the day gold closed down $10.60 at $4975.90, and silver closed up $0.06 at $77.57.
On Friday the price of gold moved to session highs of $5060.00 in the early trade and finished the day nicely in the green. Considering the turmoil today, a weaker dollar, and the possibility of war in the Middle East, I’m surprised that safe haven demand has not pushed the price of gold to fresh record highs. This may be the result of the Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs. Or the notion that cooler heads will prevail. Or even highlight the fact that gold faces tough overheard resistance around $5000.00. Now consider that the odds of further rate cuts have moved to an even bet and it appears that the price of gold may be in a cooling trend.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold Price as Rate-Cut Odds Dip – Gold Edges Higher on Safe-Haven Demand as Iran Tensions Overshadow Fed Uncertainty – Spot gold is edging higher on Friday as traders reacted to mixed economic data and the threat of a war between the United States and Iran. Since the odds of a June rate cut dropped from 50.2% to 46.8% after the reports, I have to chalk up today’s gains to safe-haven buying. GDP Disappoints, Inflation Holds Firm, Putting the Fed in a Tough Spot – Today’s data showed U.S. economic growth cooled considerably in the fourth quarter of 2025 while inflation remained elevated above the Fed’s mandated target. This news made it more difficult for the Fed to justify an interest rate cut. It also helped support the U.S. Dollar, which weighed on foreign demand for dollar-denominated gold. However, this assessment was outweighed by the geopolitical concerns out of the Middle East. The details show that gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a meager annualized rate of just 1.4%, according to the Commerce Department. This was well below the forecasted 2.5% gain. Meanwhile, inflation held firm in December, based on the Fed’s favorite indicator, the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE). It rose 3% as expected, maintaining its position above the Fed’s 2% target. Geopolitical Risk Trumps Rate Cut Odds as the 10-to-15-Day Clock Ticks – Spot gold traders appear to be putting more emphasis on the geopolitical events rather than the odds of a Fed rate cut in June. This is likely because a war between the United States and Iran could be triggered within the next 10 to 15 days while conditions could change enough to alter the Fed’s plans in June. Just a month ago, speculators would have probably taken gold sharply higher at the mere mention of a war between Iran and the U.S. However, the absence of aggressive speculators, Fed uncertainty, and low liquidity due to the Asian New Year may be preventing a spike in prices. As we approach the end of President Trump’s 10-to-15-day warning period, traders could become more agitated, leading to heightened volatility and higher prices. A Peace Deal Could Flip the Script and Trigger a Sharp Selloff – If a deal is struck between the United States and Iran before a war begins, gold could drop dramatically because it would no longer have the safe-haven bid, and the diminished chances of a June rate cut and a stronger U.S. Dollar could encourage aggressive selling of the metal. Technical Outlook: $5002 Is the Pivot – Upside Targets $5119 and $5143 – Technically, gold is trading on the strong side of a short-term pivot at $5002.31, putting it in a position to challenge the recent top at $5119.35 and the Fibonacci level at $5143.89. The latter is also a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. Traders face downside risks if $5002.31 fails as support. The nearest targets are pivots at $4760.87 and $4744.34. The 50-day moving average at $4705.42 also remains a valid target. It’s also a value price, which means a test of this indicator could attract new buyers.
On the day gold closed up $83.40 at $5059.30, and silver closed up $4.71 at $82.28.
Platinum closed up $107.40 at $2169.70, palladium closed up $83.80 at $1774.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $5,144.50. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,670.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5,074.40 and then at $5,100.00. First support is seen at $5,000.00 and then at $4,900.00. March silver futures bulls see the next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $63.90. First resistance is seen at $82.50 and then at $85.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $77.285 and then at $75.00.
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.