Commentary for Friday, Nov 7, 2025 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $19.50 at $3999.40, and silver closed up $0.23 at $48.02. There are many traders who generally believe that the price of gold peaked in 2025, and further the rise to these extreme levels has placed our shiny friend in an overbought position. In other words, a cooling trend in gold may already be in place. The reasoning being that gold has recently failed several times to break through tough overhead resistance. The flip side of this investment coin is that because inflation is moving lower the Fed may not lower interest rates. The next FOMC meeting will be held December 9th and 10th of 2025. And Powell remains uncommitted, preferring to wait for fresh inflation data. He also said not long ago that this second rate decrease is not a foregone conclusion. So, folks are presented with an investment paradox. One which Trump dislikes because he believes Powell should have already lowered interest rates. If the President gets his way, fresh all-time highs are a possibility next year. Last Friday gold closed at $3982.20 / silver at $47.99. On the week gold was up $17.20, and silver was higher by $0.03.
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On Monday gold was choppy between $4030.00 and $3995.00, so steady on the day but closing only mildly in the green. The general feeling however is that gold’s correction is temporary, and prices will eventually trend higher as interest rates move lower. In other words, most see this market as upbeat, waiting for fresh news. UBS is calling for $4100.00 with upside potential as high as $4700.00 but this is too optimistic in my mind. Look for continued downward drift.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold steady as focus shifts to US private payroll data – Gold prices held steady on Monday, hovering around $4,000 per ounce, as investors hunkered down for U.S. private payroll data due this week to assess the chances of an additional U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year. Spot gold was little changed at $4,002.35 an ounce by 1:32 p.m. ET (1832 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.4% higher at $4,014. “Gold is in the process of carving out a trading range, maybe in the high 3000s to the mid-4000s… this is a kind of expected consolidation after such a big move,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. The metal, which has gained 53% this year, has dropped over 8% from a record high hit on October 20. Investors are awaiting the release of ADP U.S. employment data due on Wednesday and ISM PMIs this week, for cues on the Fed’s policy direction. The U.S. government shutdown has halted the release of key economic data, including from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Last week the central bank cut interest rates for the second time this year, but Chair Jerome Powell said another cut this year was “not a foregone conclusion”. Traders are now pricing a 65.3% chance of a rate cut in December, down from a near certainty last week before the Fed meeting. Non-yielding gold thrives when interest rates are low and in times of economic uncertainty. “Gold’s pause still looks like a breather, not a breakdown. Seasonal softness, temporary Chinese policy noise, and a firmer dollar explain the short-term retreat, but none change the longer-term narrative,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
On the day gold closed up $18.10 at $4000.30, and silver closed down $0.10 at $47.89.
On Tuesday the price of gold tested support at $3930.00. This is a bearish sign suggesting more settling is in the cards – which figures considering the dollar is at 3 month highs. Investors should also keep in mind that gold has gained 53% this year alone. Therefore, insiders believe it remains overbought. Which might prompt some to take profits and move aside as geopolitics and therefore safe haven demand are cooling. My bet it that you will continue to see a slide in both gold and silver prices, perhaps even through next year. But such losses will likely not be dramatic, especially as interest rates continue to move lower.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold slips below $4,000 on firm dollar as market awaits data for Fed clues – Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce on Tuesday as the dollar hit three-month highs, while traders awaited U.S. economic data for clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold lost 0.8% to $3,968.09, as of 09:04 a.m. ET (1404 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery eased 0.9% to $3,979.20. The dollar index traded at three-month highs, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. “With the dollar making new highs, we’re seeing that having a weight on the gold market… some of this recent strength in dollar and the weight in the gold market comes from the less likelihood of a potential rate cut in December,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Although the Fed cut rates last week, Chair Jerome Powell suggested that it might be the last cut of the year. Traders now see a 71% chance of a rate cut in December, compared with more than 90% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty. With the U.S. government shutdown likely to become the longest ever, halting the release of government data, investors are watching non-official reports, including Wednesday’s ADP National Employment data. Remarks from Fed officials have highlighted differing perspectives over how to address the current data gap. Bullion, which has gained 53% this year, has dropped by more than 9% from a record high hit on October 20. “Gold is losing some froth, while still pricing in concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of stagflation as well as underlying geopolitical risk and international tensions. Some of the froth has been blown off in a much-needed correction,” StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver was down 1.3% at $47.47 per ounce, platinum eased 1.2% to $1,547.09 and palladium fell 3.5% to $1,394.75.
On the day gold closed down $52.60 at $3947.70, and silver closed down $0.76 at $47.13.
On Wednesday the price of gold challenged overhead resistance twice at $3985.00 before settling nicely in the green for the day, but unable to overcome that $4000.00 ceiling. The bulls are reasserting themselves to some degree in trying to mitigate yesterday’s $52.60 loss. Is this another attempt at carving out a bottom? I believe investors are growing more cautious as gold struggles after dipping below $4000.00. We may see a soft market moving toward the holiday season. This thinking represents a growing number of people who believe gold has topped out for 2025. But the likelihood of lower interest rates suggests that gold could make fresh record highs in 2026. Especially if safe haven demand doubles down and the dollar trends lower.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold gains on risk aversion despite strong US payrolls data – Gold prices rose over 1% on Wednesday, lifted by investors avoiding risky assets despite stronger-than-expected private payrolls data in the U.S. Spot gold was up 1.1% at $3,976.15 per ounce by 08:58 a.m. ET (1358 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $3,986.40 per ounce. “Gold and silver are modestly higher despite a stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls report, which is the best broad jobs indicator given the shutdown. This should give comfort to bulls who were surprised that metals fell along with risky assets yesterday,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. U.S. private employment increased by 42,000 jobs last month, above Reuters estimate of a 28,000 rise, the ADP employment report showed on Wednesday. A strong jobs market typically reduces likelihood of rate cuts and can even keep rates higher for longer. Stocks fell on Wednesday, retreating from record highs on fears equity markets may have become overstretched. “Some safe-haven demand has surfaced at mid-week as the global stock markets are still a bit shaky amid ideas U.S. stocks are overvalued and that there is an AI stock bubble,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, in a note. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating it could be the final reduction this year. Traders now see a 70% chance of another rate cut in December, down from over 90% last week. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty. Eyes will also be on a U.S. Supreme Court hearing later in the day on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, after a lower court ruled the administration had overstepped authority by imposing levies under an emergency law. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 1.9% to $47.98 per ounce, platinum rose 1% to $1,550.60 and palladium climbed 2.2% to $1,421.96.
On the day gold closed up $32.60 at $3980.30, and silver closed up $0.73 at $47.86.
On Thursday the price of gold tried on three occasions to move above $4015.00 in the early morning but failed and finished the day almost unchanged. I believe most traders remain optimistic about the price of gold, especially in the longer term. But they must be disappointed that yesterday’s big jump to the upside fizzled. Still the government remains shut down and the dollar is trending lower, supporting current pricing levels, plus or minus a few hundred bucks. It remains to be seen if we trend lower next year, but most insiders believe gold is overbought at these higher levels, and lower prices would be a healthy correction. This correction may even set the stage for fresh record highs in 2026 given soaring government deficits and such nonsense.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold reclaims $4,000/oz level as dollar slips, US shutdown woes persist – Gold reclaims $4,000/oz level as dollar slips, US shutdown woes persist – Gold rose above the key $4,000 per ounce level on Thursday, supported by a retreat in the dollar, while a prolonged U.S. government shutdown raised worries over the economic outlook. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,015.31 per ounce by 1207 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.8% to $4,024.60 per ounce. “The Supreme Court skepticism on the tariffs and the weaker dollar are supporting gold,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “While near-term prices are likely to continue consolidating, we expect further Federal Reserve rate cuts to lift gold to $4,200/oz by the end of the year.” The dollar fell 0.3% after hitting a four-month high in the previous session, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. U.S. Supreme Court justices raised doubts on Wednesday over the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs in a case with implications for the global economy. Meanwhile, U.S. private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding Reuters’ forecast of a 28,000 gain, the ADP report showed on Wednesday. The stronger labor market could temper interest rate cut hopes. A congressional impasse has resulted in what is now the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown, forcing investors and the Federal Reserve to rely on private sector indicators. The Fed cut interest rates last week, but Chair Jerome Powell suggested it might be the last reduction for 2025. Market participants now see a 63% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, down from more than 90%. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments. European stocks slipped, pressured by losses in France’s Legrand as it missed sales growth expectations, adding to recent worries around elevated valuations in tech-related companies. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 1.3% to $48.69 per ounce, platinum was up 0.4% at $1,568.26, and palladium fell 0.8% to $1,407.41.
On the day gold closed down $0.40 at $3979.90, and silver closed down $0.07 at $47.79.
On Friday gold moved above $4000.00 but traders quickly sold this rally and gold tested support at $3985.00. So, it appears that further consolidation is in the cards for gold and perhaps for silver as well. The big question at this point is whether gold will continue to drift lower given that traders are expecting interest rates to weaken through the first quarter of next year. What the FOMC does next will in large part depend on current inflation data, which because the government shutdown is in its 38th day is missing in action. There is little doubt however that inflation is cooling down, which provides the FOMC with options. In other words, the widely accepted game plan that Powell would be forced to lower rates a second time to avoid recession is now a busted flush, the economy is doing just fine. Perhaps investors could use a crystal ball?
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Consolidation – Gold is modestly higher early Friday, holding steady near the $4,000 level after recent volatility. Consolidation appears healthy as the market digests prior gains, with $3,800 and $4,200 marking key downside and upside levels. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied slightly during the early hours on Friday as we continue to hang around the $4,000 level. The $4,000 level, of course, is an area that a lot of people will be watching closely and is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that causes some headline volatility. At this point, we should be watching what happens next through the prism of sitting and waiting. After all, we had shot straight up in the air for quite some time and then had this massive sell-off. We are now just dancing around the crucial $4,000 level, which is an area that makes perfect sense to consolidate at and try to work off some of the froth via time spent at this level instead of selling off. That being said, if we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, I think we would visit the $3,800 level, which was the measured move of the breakout from the ascending triangle we had been in. A breakdown below opens up a move to $3,500 level, which would cause serious concerns about the overall trend in this market. On the other hand, if we do break to the upside, watch the $4,200 level—that could be a significant barrier. But as things stand right now, I think the best bullish case scenario is to simply stay right around this $4,000 level and sit here, letting the market get used to these prices and letting traders accept the fact that gold is $4,000 an ounce. Eventually, that could attract fresh money back into the market. Silver Continues to Consolidate on Friday – Silver is steadying around the $47 level, showing signs of consolidation after a sharp correction from $54. The market is working off excess momentum, with sideways movement likely before any renewed push higher. Technical Analysis – The silver market rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday in early trading as the $47 level continues to be an area of interest and support. That being said, market participants continue to see a lot of back-and-forth behavior, with the 50-day EMA underneath offering a certain amount of support. Silver had a huge run to the upside for quite some time, and I think you need to look at it through the prism of a market that may have gotten a little bit overdone. With that, the massive sell-off from $54 to $47 in a very quick flash has shocked the market. Now we’re trying to determine whether or not we can hang out in the $47 region. To be honest with you, the best thing that could happen for this market is for it to go sideways for a while and just accept this price. That would allow it to work off some of the excess froth that had been thrown into the market, and by doing so, people would become more comfortable with these prices, potentially sending silver higher. If we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, then it’s possible that silver could plunge toward the $40 level. Whether or not it has topped out completely, we don’t know yet, but I do suspect that, in the best-case scenario, this market probably moves sideways for a while. This would allow traders to feel more comfortable with the idea of silver being priced as high as it is at the moment.
On the day gold closed up $19.50 at $3999.40, and silver closed up $0.23 at $48.02.
Platinum closed up $11.00 at $1539.30, and palladium closed up $9.20 at $1397.30.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,800.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $4,028.70 and then at $4,059.90. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $3,973.20 and then at this week’s low of $3,935.70. December silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at $49.00 and then at $49.225. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $47.41 and then at $47.00.
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