Commentary for Thursday, July 3, 2025 – Today gold closed down $16.40 at $3331.60, and silver closed up $0.35 at $36.78. A small reminder that we and the US markets will be closed Friday for Independence Day. Unfortunately, the price of gold moved lower this morning as strong jobs data provided more interest rate options for the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). If the economy is healthy Chief Powell is not likely to lower interest rates at its next meeting (July 20th and 30th, 2025). The interest rate battle is still in play between Trump and Powell, but the President cannot just replace him. And Powell is on record as saying that he favors higher interest rates to battle stubborn inflation numbers. I expect the price of gold will drift lower until the Federal interest rate policy turns dovish and expect a back and forth market through the holiday season. Last Friday gold closed at $3273.70 / silver at $36.04. On the week gold was up $57.90, and silver was up $0.74.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold firmed to some degree, trading between $3275.00 and $3295.00. So, you could say we are seeing light bargain hunting at the beginning of this short trading week considering the whopping $60.00 drop last Friday. But I’m still suspicious and defensive in the short term because until interest rates move lower it will be difficult for gold to move higher. Gold’s technical picture suggests higher prices but to me this looks like a market in transition, most likely to the downside. That being said, the geopolitical picture is a mess so safe haven demand should cushion this market nicely as world tension continues to mount. Finally with July 4th being Friday – the markets and the store are closed. Enjoy a safe Independence Day!
Reuters (Sara Qureshi) – Gold rises on weaker dollar; investors await US jobs data – “June 30 (Reuters) – Gold edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, while investors hunkered down for U.S. economic data due later this week for signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $3,292.39 per ounce as of 1220 a.m. EDT (1620 GMT) after reaching its lowest point since May 29 earlier in the session. The yellow metal was up for the second straight quarter, rising 5.4%. U.S. gold futures was up 0.5% at $3,304.30. The dollar fell against the yen and hit its lowest in almost four years against the euro, as market optimism over U.S. trade deals bolstered bets for earlier interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On the trade front, the U.S. and China resolved issues over rare earth minerals and magnet shipments last week, renewing hopes for further talks between the two superpowers. Elsewhere, Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. tech firms late Sunday to revive stalled trade negotiations with the U.S. Gold, traditionally considered a hedge during times of uncertainty, also thrives in a low-interest rate environment. Investors now await the U.S. ADP employment data, due Wednesday, and Thursday’s initial jobless claims data for hints on the central bank’s potential policy path. Citi analysts said in a note they expect gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 to $3,500 in the third-quarter of the year, noting that the late April peak of $3,500 may already be the high as the gold market deficit approaches its peak. Spot silver eased 0.1% at $35.94 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.6% to $1,330.85, and palladium dropped 3.3% to $1,097.20. All the three-metals were headed for gains so far this quarter.”
On the day gold closed up $20.70 at $3294.40, and silver closed down $0.19 at $35.85.
On Tuesday the price of gold jumped to higher ground early in the day, touching $3355.00 before settling somewhat but still finishing nicely in the green. This is worth noting because it suggests that Monday’s bounce was not an anomaly. It looks like traders are solid buyers of Friday’s significant dip in the price of gold. Yes, the dollar is weaker, tariffs uncertain, and safe haven demand continues. But investors also see an opportunity to hedge their bets as Trump’s rhetoric increases, which may have become the golden rule of investing. This and the possibility of lower interest rates may set the stage for record prices in gold and silver this year.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold firms on weaker dollar, US tariffs and fiscal uncertainty – “Gold prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday as a weaker dollar and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, along with concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook, drove investors towards safe-haven assets. Spot gold climbed 1.4% to $3,349.32 an ounce by 1203 GMT while U.S. gold futures jumped 1.6% to $3,361.70. The U.S. dollar weakened to its lowest level since early 2022, making gold less expensive for overseas buyers. “The precious metal’s safe-haven appeal is being boosted by concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and ongoing tariff-related uncertainty as the Trump administration keeps all options on the table ahead of the looming July (tariffs) deadline,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades. President Donald Trump expressed frustration with U.S.-Japan trade negotiations on Monday and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches despite ongoing negotiations. Markets are also focused on a vote over Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill, adding to an already uncertain market environment. Meanwhile, Trump continued to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, sending Fed Chair Jerome Powell a list of global interest rates with handwritten notes. “I expect prices to move higher in the near term, attracting additional buying interest as they approach $3,350, with the next significant resistance level around $3,370,” Evangelista said. On the data front, markets are awaiting job openings numbers later on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls on Thursday. Gold is viewed as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty and tends to perform well when interest rates are low. HSBC said in a note that it expects central bank gold purchases to moderate on further rallies above $3,300 and said they could increase if gold corrects nearer to $3,000. Spot silver firmed 0.9% to $36.41 an ounce, platinum was down 0.1% at $1,351.80 and palladium gained 2.5% to $1,124.79.”
On the day gold closed up $42.30 at $3336.70, and silver closed up $0.23 at $36.08 .
On Wednesday the price of gold opened on the quiet side, trading between $3330.00 and $3350.00 on the speculation that interest rates may soon be moving lower. Especially if payroll numbers weaken. Still investors must deal with the Trump Effect, meaning they will likely buy gold on any reasonable weakness, which will in turn support safe haven demand. It is worth considering that we have a short trading week because of Independence Day. And no one wants to be short this market over the weekend. I expect a quiet pricing market but one which is supported by possible geopolitical hot spots. Gold finished the day only mildly in the green.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold rises as weak ADP employment data strengthens rate cut bets – “Gold prices firmed on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected jobs data fueled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut rates sooner than expected, while investors also awaited upcoming non-farm payrolls data for further market cues on monetary policy. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,347.59 per ounce, as of 1246 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,358.10. U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell in June and job gains in the prior month were smaller than initially thought, the ADP National Employment Report showed. After the data, traders increased their expectations to 67 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, up from the earlier expectation of 64 basis points. “The grimace-inducing -33k print in ADP private payrolls – the first showing net job losses since early 2023 is giving gold a nice bump,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. On Tuesday, U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in May, but a decline in hiring added to signs that the labor market had shifted into lower gear. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday reiterated that the Fed is taking a patient approach to further interest rate cuts. But he did not rule out a reduction at this month’s meeting, saying everything depends on incoming data. That raises the stakes for the monthly non-farm payrolls report due on Thursday for more insight into the health of the labor market. “If the payrolls report is terrible tomorrow, it’s not inconceivable that a July cut could be possible,” Wong added. Gold, traditionally considered a hedge during times of uncertainty, also thrives in a low-interest rate environment. Traders are also focused on U.S. tariff uncertainty ahead of the July 9 deadline. Adding to investor concerns, Trump’s massive tax-and-spending bill, expected to add $3.3 trillion to the nation’s debt, is headed to the House of Representatives for possible final approval. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $36.33 per ounce, platinum was up 1.9% to $1,375.91, while palladium gained 1.9% to $1,120.87.”
On the day gold closed up $11.30 at $3348.00, and silver closed up $0.35 at $36.43.
On Thursday gold moved lower, testing $3315.00 as the dollar strengthened after strong US payroll data suggests that the Fed would not be lowering interest rates in the near term. Most insiders see this market as defensive, testing support in the $3200.00 or perhaps $3100.00 but not falling out of bed because Trump is a big inflationary spender. And tariffs are also inflationary in the longer term and will likely remain part of Trump’s war chest, threatening friends and foes alike, while he makes new deals with old enemies like Vietnam. While investors will likely have to deal with lower gold prices near term, there is no Federal debt ceiling. In my mind $3100.00 gold will seem cheap over the next decade no matter which party is in the White House.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold falls 1% as strong US payrolls data douses rate cut hopes – “Gold fell 1% on Thursday as stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates as early as previously anticipated, denting the metal’s appeal. Spot gold fell 1% to $3,325.48 per ounce as of 1303 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.7% to $3,336.00. The dollar and U.S. stock index futures rose after non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 110,000. A stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. “The better than expected jobs number means we see a lesser likelihood of a Fed rate cut earlier than currently anticipated. As a result, the dollar strengthened which is adding pressure to the gold market,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “The key is the fact that the idea or possibility of a July rate cut is off the table.” Investors are now pricing in 53 basis points of Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of the year, starting in October, down from around 66 basis points expected prior to the report. Non-yielding gold tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. On the trade front, an agreement between the United States and Vietnam was announced on Wednesday ahead of a July 9 deadline when U.S. tariffs are set to take effect. Meanwhile, Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives advanced Trump’s massive tax-cut and spending bill, estimated to potentially add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt, toward a final yes-or-no vote. “As the indebtedness of the US continues to grow, investors might become more concerned about the US dollar, which should benefit gold in the longer-term,” said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer. Spot silver edged down 0.2% to $36.51 per ounce, platinum lost 2.9% to $1,376.80 and palladium shed 2.3% to $1,128.78.”
On the day gold closed down $16.40 at $3331.60, and silver closed up $0.35 at $36.78.
Platinum closed down $49.00 at $1372.00, and palladium closed down $20.50 at $1136.50.
On Friday the 4th of July the domestic gold market was closed. And so was GoldDealer.com. Wishing you all a safe and happy Independence Day!
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,200.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,370.50 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,337.20 and then at Tuesday’s low of $3,313.70. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy and sideways at higher levels recently. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of $37.73. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $35.00. First resistance is seen at $37.00 and then at $37.50. Next support is seen at $36.00 and then at last week’s low of $35.53.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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