Commentary for Friday, Sept 19, 2025 – Today gold closed up $27.80 at $3671.50, and silver closed up $0.83 at $42.54. This week gave gold sentiment another boost as prices set a fresh record of $3707.00 on Wednesday, helped by a weaker dollar. The price of gold today has bounced higher again, but some bulls expect gold to test support as residual profit taking continues. Ignore the latest claim from a few insiders that gold has now developed enough buzz to move above $4000.00. If you read between the lines, the FOMC is suggesting that they will be stingy about further rate cuts until inflation numbers are less troubling. Last Friday gold closed at $3649.40 / silver at $41.39. On the week gold was higher by $22.10, and silver was higher by $1.15.
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On Monday gold got off to a nice start moving to a session high of $3680.00. Keep an eye on the FOMC meeting which begins this Tuesday and ends on Wednesday afternoon. Followed by a press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. Insiders believe the price of gold has already priced in a quarter point decrease – so what Chief Powell has to say at that conference becomes important and offers the trade his thinking as we move forward. I think most are still comfortable enough with the bullish side of this trade, at least in the short term, and will continue to look for even higher prices in gold as interest rates trend lower. Keep in mind however that overhead resistance above $3500.00 has always been a tough nut to crack. I look for a back and forth trade even into the first quarter of next year as traders work off this expected froth. Ignore any rumors that the Fed is facing an imminent crisis, Chief Powell, as usual, is doing a great job, in spite of Trump’s continued pressure to lower interest rates.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Work Off Froth – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy chop, but at this point in time, the markets are waiting for the Federal Reserve, and the interest rate decision. Ultimately, this is a market that remains “buy on the dips.” Technical Analysis – The gold market has gone back and forth during the course of the early hours here on Monday as traders are keeping an eye on the crucial $3,700 level. Short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities in this market, I believe, but also keep in mind that the Wednesday session is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and a lot of people will be paying close attention to that. It’s not so much what the decision is. I think most people recognize it will be a 25 basis point cut. What’s going to be interesting is the statement and, of course, the press conference. If it really starts to look like the Federal Reserve is concerned, that could get the gold market rallying even further. We are a little bit stretched at this point in time, so you have a couple of different things that you can do here. The first one is that you can go sideways in order to grind away some of that excess froth. The other one, of course, is pulling back. And if we pull back a bit, then the $3,600 level might be an area of support. After that, we have the $3,500 level, which I think is the absolute floor in the market. The 50 day EMA is sitting right around the $3,500 level as well. And therefore, I think that close attention has to be paid to. When you zoom out, you can see that the market has recently broken out of a massive ascending triangle. And as a result, you can take the measured move of that expected jump and expect to see gold go looking at the $3,800 level. There’s nothing on this chart that suggests that it won’t happen. It just doesn’t necessarily have to happen right away. I think pullbacks will continue to offer buying opportunities for most people in this market.” Silver Pauses Early on Monday – The Monday session sees the silver market slowing down a bit, perhaps absorbing the massive momentum from the Friday session. At this point, the market certainly looks positive, but we might need a little bit of a pullback. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been very choppy and quiet during the early session here on Monday, but that makes a certain amount of sense because we had such an explosive move to the upside on Friday, we have recently broken out of a bullish flag, which measures for a pretty significant move to somewhere in the neighborhood of around $46. And really, there’s nothing on this chart that suggests we can’t do that. Short-term pullbacks are possible, especially with the Federal Reserve interest rate decision coming out on Wednesday. Those pullbacks will more likely than not be so short-lived because there’s obviously a lot of momentum in this market. But pay attention to how the Federal Reserve behaves because it’s not so much about whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates. I think pretty much everybody out there is expecting a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
On the day gold closed up $32.80 at $3682.20, and silver closed up $0.13 at $42.52.
On Tuesday the price of gold was choppy at the higher end of today’s pricing range, testing overhead resistance at $3698.00 several times but settled only mildly in the green which is a bit curious and might suggest this bull market needs a rest. Still, optimism grows, the dollar weakens, and President Trump continues to call for lower interest rates. Also worth noting is an increase in safe haven demand as Israel launches another ground assault in the Middle East. Still, even with solid bullish sentiment I would be cautious. The price of gold has risen 41% this year, suggesting that traders may look for settling and the possibility of profit taking.
Reuters (Anushree Mukherjee) – Fed-fueled frenzy sends gold to uncharted territory above $3,700 – “Gold vaulted past $3,700 an ounce levels for the first time on Tuesday as rising bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week fueled a rally that has been stoked by safe-haven demand, central bank buying and a weaker dollar. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,698.67 per ounce, as of 10:21 am ET (1421 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,702.95 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.5% to $3,736.90. Gold is surging on a sharply weaker dollar, which is at lows not seen since July,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. The dollar fell to a more than two-month low against rivals. A weaker greenback makes gold less expensive for other currency holders. “Global growth uncertainty and geopolitical risk continue to keep haven demand high but the gold rally is being driven largely by anticipation of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut at the end of the two-day meeting on September 17, with a small chance of a 50-bp reduction, per the CME FedWatch. President Donald Trump in a social media post on Monday called for Fed Chair Powell to enact a “bigger” rate cut. Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Bullion, renowned as a hedge against uncertainties, has surged about 41% since the start of the year. It breached the mark of $3,600 per ounce on September 8. Analysts say the rally has been driven by a potent mix of sustained central bank buying, intensifying safe-haven flows, a global shift away from the U.S. dollar, which is also facing persistent weakness. Spot gold surged 27% in 2024 and broke the $3,000 mark for the first time in March, as uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies drove investors toward the safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, Commerzbank raised its gold price forecast to $3,600 per troy ounce by the end of this year and to $3,800 by the end of 2026.”
On the day gold closed up $6.70 at $3688.90, and silver closed down $0.05 at $42.47.
On Wednesday the price of gold dipped on the open testing support at $3660.00 but quickly recovered as traders bought this weakness and cautiously awaited the pending decision on interest rates. Still gold closed mildly in the red on the day. All eyes will be focused on Chief Powell and what he has to say today about short term interest rates. A quarter point decrease has already been factored into current gold pricing, so most traders are looking for a steady market at current levels with perhaps a small downward drift going into the weekend. As it turned out the Fed did lower interest rates by a quarter point and indicated they will steadily lower borrowing costs for the rest of this year according to Reuters. I look for further profit taking in the short term, although there is probably not much downside here if interest rates trend lower.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold eases after scaling record peak, Fed rate verdict looms – “Gold slipped on Wednesday as investors locked in profits after prices scaled the $3,700-mark in the previous session, with the spotlight now on the Federal Reserve’s looming policy verdict. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,676.29 per ounce, as of 9:10 am ET (1310 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,702.95 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.4% to $3,711.20. The U.S. dollar inched up after retreating in the previous session. A firmer dollar makes greenback-priced gold less appealing to holders of other currencies. Gold is seeing “some profit-taking pressure from recent gains ahead of the FOMC meeting. Overall fundamentals and technicals remain firmly bullish for gold,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. “The next upside price target for gold is $3,800 and then a major upside price target down the road would be $4,000.” The most politically charged Fed meeting in years wraps up at 2 p.m. EDT, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut. Focus will also be on whether officials debated a deeper 50 bps cut, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic overhaul drive raises fresh questions about the central bank’s independence. Gold often gains appeal when interest rates fall, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Deutsche Bank, while raising its gold price forecasts, said that even though gold has screened as rich versus fair value, this is largely driven by strong official demand, which is expected to persist. Elsewhere, in key hub India, supplies of used gold jewelry and coins, typically released when investors book profits, have been scarce, as many expect prices to continue climbing. Spot silver slipped 1.9% to $41.76 per ounce, platinum was down 1.6% at $1,367.70 and palladium fell 1.5% to $1,158.14.”
On the day gold closed down $7.10 at $3681.80, and silver closed down $0.75 at $41.72.
On Thursday the price of gold was choppy, a bit confused but generally trended lower, testing support at $3630.00 after the Fed cut interest rates a quarter point yesterday. This may sound a bit counterintuitive, but I believe that knowledgeable traders believe this is simple profit taking. It may be that FOMC members are conflicted over the general direction of interest rates. Perhaps some fear the rate cut was a mistake, others consider the flip side of this coin…a slowing US economy. Trying to get this interest rate adjustment is difficult at best because the tools used to measure these changes are usually only published after the fact. Still, if they get this wrong corrections can be made with little real damage over the longer term. Gold pricing today seems nervous because it is and will likely remain on the volatile side until this smoke settles. Physical bullion activity across our trading desk is once again divided between large sellers and large buyers, which makes sense. Recent large buyers are looking at a strong technical picture and want to be positioned for higher prices in the longer term. Many recent sellers are sitting on large profits and want to cash in and wait for the markets to adjust to fresh trading information.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Strong Despite Initial Drop on Thursday – “The gold market continues to find buyers on dips, after the FOMC cut rates on Wednesday. At this point, there are four central bank meetings this week, so it’s not a surprise to have seen a bit of volatility. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped at the open to the downside on Thursday, as we have seen a little bit of profit taking, but really at this point in time, I think we’ve got a situation where the market has been very bullish for some time. And therefore, I think a little bit of a pullback was probably necessary. The Federal Reserve meeting has come and gone, and it initially looked like the Federal Reserve might be tighter than people thought, or at least more hawkish. But now it looks like the markets are starting to readjust. And the first move the market makes after the Federal Reserve decision might end up being the wrong one. We are still in the massive uptrend that we had been in previously and that hasn’t changed. I think ultimately any pullback at this point in time still ends up being a buying opportunity, with the $3,650 level offering support right along with the $3,600 level. To the upside, the $3,800 level is a potential target based on the measured move of the ascending triangle that we broke out of, but we’ll just have to wait and see how long it takes to get there. I’ve got no interest in shorting gold. It’s been bullish for far too long. And of course, with central banks, mainly the Federal Reserve out there cutting rates, it does help the idea of gold going higher. Not to mention the fact that central banks around the world have been hoarding gold and the geopolitical situation out there continues to be pretty noisy. And that does tend to help gold as well.”
On the day gold closed down $38.10 at $3643.70, and silver closed down $0.01 at $41.71.
On Friday the price of gold did not continue to fizzle as traders bought yesterday’s weakness. But investors are not standing in line to buy at these lofty prices. An interesting side note – in the physical market fresh money is moving into what looks like a value play. Not long ago you could not give away platinum or palladium bullion. But today both precious metals are attracting attention because they remain giveaway cheap, especially if you consider the long term. We have been calling around looking for fresh bullion coins, the best bet because platinum or palladium bars are still taxable. It appears that few dealers carry a lot of stock and in fact a large order of either might be surprisingly difficult to cover. Premiums on these tax-free bullion coins are already high, and I expect this trend to continue as more people consider this value option.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold edges higher with spotlight on Fed policy path – “Gold prices moved higher on Friday and headed for a fifth straight weekly gain; with market attention focused on further U.S. rate cut cues after the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,653.86 per ounce by 9:17 am EDT (1317 GMT). Prices are up 0.3% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.2% to $3,686.60. The U.S. central bank cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday but tempered the move with warnings about persistent inflation, casting doubt over the pace of future easing. Following the decision, spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,707.40 before retreating in volatile trading. “Gold remains pretty strong here and is just seeing a pause after the Fed. The bullish trend remains intact with new highs inevitable and realistically we could see $4,000 before year-end,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn. Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said job market risks warranted this week’s rate cut and likely reductions at the central bank’s next two meetings. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. The metal also tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty and has gained about 39% since the start of the year. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping spoke by phone on Friday, Chinese state media reported, aiming to resolve tensions and keep TikTok operational in the U.S. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.9% to $42.18 per ounce and platinum firmed 0.6% to $1,391.73. Palladium was down 0.3% at $1,146.98 and headed for a weekly loss. “What I’m seeing is that many investors are now turning to platinum and silver as they are more affordable than gold,” said Haberkorn.”
On the day gold closed up $27.80 at $3671.50, and silver closed up $0.83 at $42.54.
Platinum closed up $16.90 at $1414.30, and palladium closed down $17.20 at $1150.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,800.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,600.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $3,707.30 and then at this week’s high of $3,744.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3,660.50 and then at $3,650.00. December silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $45.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $40.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $42.685 and then at $43.00. Next support is seen at $42.00 and then at this week’s low of $41.48.”
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