Commentary for Friday, July 18, 2025 – Today gold closed up $12.90 at $3353.00, and silver closed up $0.16 at $38.22. Gold finished the week on a positive note, and I believe insiders remain bullish in the longer term, but in the short term there is a developing question as to whether this strong bull market is running out of gas or on the other hand is consolidating with an eye on fresh record highs. The reasoning here is that traders continue to see $3500.00 as tough overhead resistance, especially in the short term given the Fed does not look like it’s ready to lower interest rates anytime soon. Last Friday gold closed at $3356.00 / silver at $38.68. On the week gold was down $3.00, and silver was down $0.46.
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On Monday the price of gold rose on the open, touching $3370.00, traders sold this rally, and the market turned defensive testing $3345.00 support. This looks like normal profit taking for both gold and silver and to be frank our phones are not exactly ringing off the hook – we are looking at a quiet start to this new week. On Tuesday traders will watch carefully the latest US Consumer Price Index and on Wednesday the Producer Price Index for inflation clues. I’m a bit surprised that the public is not selling much of either gold or silver bullion, even at these elevated prices. Which might suggest the average person on the street still anticipates higher prices, the result of Trump induced inflation over the longer term. I also believe that safe haven demand is not going away anytime soon because geopolitical tension worldwide is still problematic.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold eases after hitting three-week high – “Gold prices slipped after hitting a three-week high on Monday, with attention focused on trade talks and U.S. economic data, while silver climbed to its highest level since September 2011. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,343.02 per ounce, as of 1100 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT), after reaching its highest point since June 23 earlier. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $3,351. The U.S. dollar hit a near three-week peak, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. After a significant price increase, we’re seeing some profit-taking; however, the gold market remains largely well-bid overall, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. The European Union and South Korea said they were working on trade deals with U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump stepped up his trade war on Saturday, saying he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the EU and Mexico from next month, adding to similar warnings for other countries, including Japan and South Korea. Investors now await Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index data and the Producer Price Index report on Wednesday for clues into the Federal Reserve’s potential policy path. “We’ve had the U.S. President continue to make remarks that he would like to see lower interest rates and that I think in the end is fairly supportive for gold,” Melek added. Gold’s attractiveness increases in a low-interest rate environment since it is a non-yielding asset. Spot silver shed 0.2% to $38.28 per ounce, hitting its highest level since September 2011 earlier in the session. “Silver has firm fundamentals, with the metal being in a supply deficit and demand, especially in solar remaining robust,” said WisdomTree commodities strategist Nitesh Shah. “Performance is catching up with gold, with the gold to silver ratio approaching 86.” Elsewhere, platinum fell 1.8% to $1,373.84 and palladium dropped 1.6% to $1,195.94, after logging a more than eight-month high earlier in the day.”
On the day gold closed down $4.50 at $3351.50, and silver closed down $0.22 at $38.46.
On Tuesday the price of gold held up for a short time around $3360.00 but soon tested support at $3325.00 likely because still firm inflation numbers suggest the Fed will not lower interest rates anytime soon, choosing instead to fight its number one priority – inflation. I’m surprised however that this free fall in prices was not at least partially cushioned by Trump’s heated rhetoric criticizing Russia’s fresh military aggression within the Ukraine. Is it possible that Trump’s “détente” with Moscow has begun to unwind? If so, you may soon expect a serious increase in geopolitical tension which would portend fresh safe haven interest in bullion gold.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukerjee) – Gold firms as trade tensions buoy safe-haven demand; US CPI data in focus – “Gold prices firmed on Tuesday as concerns over the global trade war fueled demand for safe-haven assets, while investors awaited a key U.S. inflation reading. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,354.84 per ounce, by 1153 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $3,363.40. The U.S. dollar was down 0.1%, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. “Gold is edging higher as bulls look to take advantage of the dollar that’s a touch lighter today,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.Money. “Gold enjoys plenty of supportive factors, from expectations for Fed rate cuts, U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, as well as persistent geopolitical and economic risks.” Trump escalated his trade war on Saturday, announcing a 30% tariff on most European Union and Mexican imports, after issuing similar warnings to other trading partners. The EU responded on Monday by accusing the U.S. of resisting efforts to strike a trade deal and threatened countermeasures if no agreement is reached. On the geopolitical front, Trump has privately urged Ukraine to ramp up strikes deep inside Russia, even asking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy if Moscow could be targeted with U.S.-supplied long-range weapons, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Trump’s recent statements, including a threat of sanctions on buyers of Russian exports, are serious and require analysis. Elsewhere, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, due at 1230 GMT, could give investors more guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in June, potentially marking the start of a long-anticipated, tariff-induced increase in inflation that has left the Fed cautious about resuming rate cuts. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 0.2% to $38.22 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since September 2011 on Monday. “If the current gold to silver price ratio is maintained, at gold prices above $3,440/oz, we will see silver above $40/oz,” said WisdomTree commodities strategist Nitesh Shah. Platinum rose 1.6% to $1,385.60, while palladium rose 1.8% to $1,215.30.”
On the day gold closed down $21.70 at $3329.80, and silver closed down $0.63 at $37.83.
On Wednesday the price of gold was a roller coaster ride, noisy around $3334.00, breaking to the downside and testing $3322.00 before seriously reversing direction, finishing the day nicely in the green. Trump’s tariff uncertainty coupled with aggressive Israeli air strikes against Syrian targets continue to create fresh safe haven demand. Wholesale inflation pressures remained unchanged last month according to the latest Producer Price Index. This should provide support for gold as it indicates inflation pressures are under control, giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates later this year. Christopher Lewis (FXEmpire) considers $3200.00 a short term floor and perhaps a good place to begin building a base capable of fresh highs. Investors should realize that this trade produces many powerful crosswinds as noted and expect volatile pricing.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Noisy Trading – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the markets are trying to figure out where to go next. That being said, the $3200 level is a short-term floor, and the $3500 level is a ceiling. As we are in the middle of this range, we are near “fair value.” Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied ever so slightly during the trading session here on Wednesday as we wait to determine which direction we’re going to finally go. After all, we are basically in the middle of a larger consolidation range that sees the $3,500 level above as a major ceiling and the $3,200 level below as a major floor. It’s probably worth noting that we are hanging around the 50 day EMA as well, which of course has a major influence also. And therefore, as we are basically at what I would consider to be fair value, there isn’t a whole lot to do here unless, of course, you are trading very short-term charts. I suspect that at this moment, we have gold, which looks like a market that is probably working off a lot of excess froth because we did shoot straight up in the air for a couple of years to get here. Now, we are simply trying to sort out whether or not there is any momentum that will enter this market. I think this time of year might be coming into play as well, mainly due to the fact that the summer is typically pretty quiet when it comes to trading volume. A lot of traders are away on holiday during the month of July or August as well. So, we may have a couple more months of this sideways grind. Once we get into fall, you’ll see more volume flow into the markets, and you might get a bit more clarity. As things stand right now, I prefer to buy dips that get anywhere near the $3,200 level, assuming that even happens. If we were to break above the $3,500 level, then it opens up a move to $3,800. Below $3,200, then you have a real shot at testing the 200-day EMA, which is just above the psychologically important $3,000 level. Silver Continues to See Buyers on Dips – The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the markets recently broke above a significant resistance barrier. At this point in time, the markets are still looking to get to the $40 level above. Technical Analysis – The silver market has rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see buyers jump into this market on dips. And at this point, I am paying close attention to the $37.50 level underneath as it was a previous resistance barrier and a very difficult one to break. Market memory comes into the picture, and I think that opens up a significant potential for a bigger move. I think at this point in time, the $40 level is something that you need to watch out for. And I do think that makes quite a bit of sense, as the measured move from the previous consolidation area did suggest that. So, the volume has shown quite a bit of upward momentum as well, even though it has slowed down over the last couple of days, it’s still fairly elevated. I have no interest in shorting silver. And I think if the US dollar falls, it could help this market as well. So, keep an eye on the US dollar index. The US dollar is softening a little bit in the early hours. So, I think that might be part of what’s going on here as well. Regardless, this is a market that has a lot of momentum and is very bullish. So at this point in time, you have to just assume it’s going to continue to work off some of the excess froth in this area and then eventually break higher again. Again, I have no interest in trying to short silver at this point. It’s obviously very bullish.”
On the day gold closed up $22.70 at $3352.50, and silver closed up $0.02 at $37.85.
On Thursday gold gave up yesterday’s gain, finishing the day mildly in the red as consumer retail sales number jumped 6% in June. The dollar was stronger, encouraging the bears. But I believe deterioration in geopolitical stability, Trump tariff blowback and the Israel and Damascus war will underpin the price of gold in the short term. Still, gold is struggling with overhead resistance ($3370.00) and finding short term support ($3320.00). If you are a longer term planner, consider gold’s moving averages – (50 MA – $3342.00) – (100 MA – $3354.00) – (200 MA $3340.00). These numbers are close together – a trend which lacks bullish or bearish momentum but suggests a coming breakout in the pricing structure, either higher or lower.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold extends decline after solid US economic data – “Gold prices extended declines and fell nearly 1% on Thursday after upbeat U.S. economic data aided the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on resuming monetary easing this year. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,315.15 per ounce, by 0936 a.m. EDT (1336 GMT) after hitting a session low of $3,309.59. U.S. gold futures fell 1.2% to $3,320.80. Following the latest U.S. data, “there was a bit of rise in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are higher. So, it’s put a little weakness in the gold market,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. But, strong central bank demand, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and tariff risks could keep gold prices elevated, he added. The dollar gained 0.3%, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for foreign currency holders. Data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell last week, pointing to steady job growth in July. While U.S. retail sales rebounded more than expected in June, recording an increase of 0.6% last month after an unrevised 0.9% drop in May, but some of the increase reflected higher prices for some goods exposed to tariffs. Meanwhile, the Fed should not cut interest rates “for some time” as the impact of Trump administration tariffs begins to pass through to consumer prices, Fed Governor Kugler said. Gold is known as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, but higher rates dim its appeal as it yields no interest. On the trade front, Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa held talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on U.S. tariffs, as Tokyo races to avert a 25% levy that will be imposed unless a deal is clinched by an August 1 deadline. Palladium added 0.1% to $1,232.02, after reaching its highest level since October 2023. Fears of an escalating war in Russia, a major palladium exporter, are fueling supply concerns and driving prices higher, Haberkorn said. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.8% to $37.64 per ounce and platinum lost 0.6% to $1,408.30.”
On the day gold closed down $12.40 at $3340.10, and silver closed up $0.21 at $38.06.
On Friday gold gained strength, moving from $3335.00 through $3360.00, finishing the day in the green, helped by mild weakness in the dollar. This market looks like it has lost its momentum and some of its bullish buzz. Still, pricing looks solid enough because gold is holding around its 200 Day Moving Average ($3340.00). Traders may just be looking for fresh data to support higher prices or at least encourage bullish sentiment until the Fed makes up its mind about short term interest rates. The talk about Trump firing Powell was political nonsense but Trump does think interest rates should be considerably lower. Without lower interest rates the price of gold will likely remain stuck around current levels. Across our trading desk today the phones are not ringing off the hook, so investors may just be looking forward to a quiet weekend.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold drifts higher; platinum at highest in over a decade – “Gold prices firmed on Friday on a weaker dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions, though easing concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence, and strong U.S. data capped gains. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,350.87 per ounce, as of 1013 GMT, after falling 1.1% in the previous session. The bullion has receded 0.1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,356.70. The dollar was down 0.4% for the day, though headed for a second straight weekly rise. A weaker dollar tends to make gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The European Union agreed to an 18th package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine, including measures aimed at dealing further blows to its oil and energy industry.
“Gold is rising on the softer US dollar yet remains hemmed in by this week’s U.S. data releases which buffered the notion that the world’s largest economy remains resilient,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.Money. “New EU sanctions on Russia are a reminder to market participants that geopolitical risks remain evident on the global stag.” Earlier in the week, a source told Reuters that U.S. President Donald Trump was open to firing Fed Chair Powell. Trump later said he doesn’t plan to sack Powell but renewed his criticism over the Fed’s interest rate policy. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales in June exceeded expectations, while initial jobless claims too were better. “In precious metals, the carnival has moved on from safe-haven gold to silver, platinum and palladium as pro-growth, industrial alternatives,” said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault. Spot platinum rose 0.3% to $1,461.77 per ounce, its highest since August 2014. Palladium climbed 4% to $1,329.88, its highest since August 2023. Silver was up 0.5% at $38.31.”
On the day gold closed up $12.90 at $3353.00, and silver closed up $0.16 at $38.22.
Platinum closed down $15.90 at $1438.50, and palladium closed up $0.90 at $1291.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $3,250.50. First resistance is seen at $3,375.00 and then at this week’s high of $3,389.30. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,337.20 and then at this week’s low of $3,314.30. September silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $36.00. First resistance is seen at $39.00 and then at this week’s high of $39.57. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $38.375 and then at $38.00.”
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