Commentary for Friday, Sept 26, 2025 – Today gold closed up $38.40 today at $3775.30, and silver closed up $1.52 at $46.22. The price of gold closed on daily highs, helped by a weaker dollar, falling consumer sentiment and fresh safe haven demand. It’s tough to find many bears in the forest today as gold continues to make record highs. Still, I would not chase this market because there are too many unstable crosswinds. As hot as this market is it makes sense to ignore advertising gimmicks. If you want to explore a new idea, make sure you read the fine print and shop prices carefully. The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) presents a Fraud Advisory which targets senior citizens. Check it out even if you are not a senior, it provides a lot of wisdom. Last Friday gold closed at $3649.60 / silver at $42.39. On the week gold was higher by $125.70, and silver was higher by $3.83.
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On Monday gold made fresh new highs ($3740.00) with the help of a weaker dollar. And surprisingly offered no “price settling” on the close. Value hunters continue to buy significant weakness, a trend which has been in place for several years. This break to the upside is of course a big deal but was not unexpected. The fact that we have seen little significant selling across our trading desk is however curious. Where is that expected round of profit taking? It is missing in action but I suspect it is being kept on a short leash. Investors are willing to “stay long” as long as gold sentiment remains bullish – like today. Why? Because gold is the ultimate safe haven. But I can tell you that significant dips to the downside or fresh new record highs are likely as world confusion grows, so remember to keep your seat belt buckled. Don’t become complacent.
FXEmpire (Christoper Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Strong – The gold market continues to see a lot of buying pressures on Monday, as we continue to see the overall bullish momentum and trend show itself. At this point, the market continues to a “buy on the dip” situation. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday as it looks like we are going to remain pretty bullish at this juncture. I think ultimately, you’ve got a situation where traders are going to continue to see this as a market that will attract a certain amount of inflows. Quite frankly, this market has, of course, been very bullish for a couple of years now, and we have now just hit a new high, and I just don’t think that is something that you can sell into. The 3,650 level will continue to be important from everything I see. And ultimately, this is a market that given enough time, it should see plenty of value hunters on each and every dip. This breakout of course is a big deal. And I think eventually we could go looking at the $3,800 level, which is basically the bottom of the ascending triangle pattern that we’ve been escaping from and now putting in the rear view mirror. Short-term pullbacks will get bought into, I think $3,800 probably gets hit pretty quickly. And for that matter, I think we probably go higher than that. The shrinking of the US dollar helps gold, but we also have to keep in mind that gold markets are moving on a multitude of reasons. It’s not just the US dollar. With this, I think you remain bullish on gold. I think you have to look at it as anytime it falls, it’s offering value. And in this environment, I think that momentum could very well take control again. We just went sideways for a while. And now we’re reaching that breakout speed again. Gold does tend to be very impulsive and therefore, I think it probably goes much higher. Silver Jumps Higher on Monday – The silver market jumps drastically in the early hours of Monday, as we continue to see a lot of buying pressure overall in the silver market. Also, the US dollar has drifted a bit lower on Monday, so this has helped as well. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gapped higher to kick off the trading session here on Monday as we continue to see a lot of bullish pressure. All things being equal, this is a market that has been very strong for some time, and we had recently broken out of a bullish flag, pulled back to test it for support, and then jumped again, proving market memory. That being said, this is a market that I think you need to pay close attention to the measured move of the bullish flag, which suggests we could go all the way to $46.50. Ultimately, this is a market where I think short-term pullbacks will continue to be buying opportunities. The $42 level of course has offered support, and I think it probably continues to do. But if we were to break down below the $42 level, then we could go looking at the $40 level where the absolute floor in the market I think finds itself, especially with the 50-day EMA hanging about. The US dollar is on its back foot a bit during the trading session here on Monday. So that helps silver as it typically has a negative correlation. The market is likely to continue to be very noisy, and therefore, I think we see a situation where a little bit of volatility probably comes back into the picture, but ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of value hunters every time we do see a little bit of a sell-off. I remain bullish.
On the day gold closed up $69.20 at $3740.70, and silver closed up $1.26 at $43.80.
On Tuesday the price of gold ripped higher testing overhead resistance at $3790.00 as strong technical support and fresh safe haven demand set the stage for $4000.00 or perhaps $5000.00 gold sooner than later. My usual comments about profit taking are collecting dust on the back shelf and sellers are scarce. It is hard to say when this market will cool off as it seems most everyone has turned bullish even at these record prices. In the short term you might see minor settling, in the longer term fresh record highs are not unexpected. But the key here is whether fresh cash money sitting on the sidelines will jump in and continue to feed growing momentum. I think the smart money will sell a small amount of gold and silver bullion and keep the rest under wraps waiting to see if there is an explosion in prices as interest rates trend lower.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See buying Pressures – The gold market rose again in the early hours of Tuesday, as we are up over 1% before Wall Street even showed up for the day. At this point, we are now breaking above the important $3800 level. Gold will continue to pay close attention to central banks and global growth. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have shot straight up in the air again during the trading session here on Tuesday as we find ourselves up well over 1 % before Wall Street even steps onto the stage. With that being the case, we have reached the $3,800 level, which was roughly the measured move from the ascending triangle breakout. So, we have hit that target. Short-term pullbacks at this point could end up being nice buying opportunities. And I think the $3,700 level is an area that a lot of people will be looking at for support. Really at this point, now we have to start talking about the possibility of $4,000. I don’t really see any reason why we can’t get there. Certainly not a lack of momentum. That won’t be the issue. So as long as central banks around the world continue to hoard gold and we are seeing interest rates get cut in places like the United States, that probably helps gold go higher anyway. I don’t have any interest in shorting gold and quite frankly, I wouldn’t even be concerned about the trend until we break below the $3,400 level. Ultimately, this is a market that anytime it pulls back, people will be looking to get involved and pick up cheap gold along the way. I just think we have a lot further to go based on what I’m seeing as gold continues to just rip to the upside in this environment as gold has been so strong.
On the day gold closed up $39.90 at $3780.60, and silver closed up $0.39 at $44.19.
On Wednesday the price of gold drifted lower as traders dealt with an expected profit taking round after two days of fresh record highs on Monday and Tuesday. This testing of support is steady around $3720.00 but could push further into the red if profit taking continues. Under past recent pricing this kind of drop would have been bought almost immediately. But this time around you may see significant caution because many still ponder the direction of interest rates. Even Powell is not sure what is developing and suggests patience. The FOMC is walking a fine line trying to balance inflation and recession. They want a kind of Goldilocks outcome when it comes to the US economy. Not too hot and not too cold. With this amount of uncertainty safe haven demand could lead the charge to fresh record highs if Trump decides to stir the pot.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold holds near record high as markets eye US economic data – Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, hovering just below a record high hit in the previous session, as investors hunkered down for economic data due later in the week for further cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold was steady at $3,765.02 per ounce, as of 09:40 a.m. ET (1340 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged down 0.5% to $3,798.20. “Gold is still digesting some of the commentary coming out of the Federal Reserve yesterday and also geopolitical tensions with Russia. It’s finding some support here, but slightly cautious ahead of some economic data coming out,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday offered no new clues on the future course of interest rates, stressing that the central bank must carefully balance the risks of stubborn inflation against a slowing job market. Markets are pricing in two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts this year — one in October with a 94% probability and another in December with a 79% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors are now focused on Thursday’s weekly U.S. jobs data and Friday’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, for fresh signals on the path of potential rate cuts. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday it struck two oil pumping stations overnight in Russia’s Volgograd region. Safe-haven gold becomes more attractive during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. It also tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset. Spot silver rose 0.3% to $44.15 per ounce, hovering near a 14-year high. Platinum rose 0.1% to $1,479.34 and palladium rose 0.8% to $1,228.85. “On one hand, silver benefits as a high-beta expression of gold’s store-of-value appeal. On the other, structural demand growth from photovoltaics and electrification provides a more tangible narrative that helps anchor allocations,” Saxo Bank said in a note.
On the day gold closed down $48.50 at $3732.10, and silver closed down $0.41 at $43.78.
On Thursday the price of gold initially pushed to $3760.00 in the early trade but experienced tough overhead resistance and quickly dipped to $3725.00, finishing only modestly higher on the day. The range between $3800.00 and $3900.00 is a tough nut to crack and $4000.00 gold may have to wait until next year. If this seems less bullish, it is – in the short to medium term. Because traders have to be thinking about taking profits, at this point. Still, given the high probability of lower interest rates and rising geopolitical tension, fresh bullish sentiment will likely power up and be followed by increasing safe haven demand. Don’t let the volatility in gold bother you too much because this country’s debt issues and those abroad are simply moving higher and higher as liberals continue to sell the “free lunch” scenario to the uninformed.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Supported – The bullish pressure of the gold market continues to show itself, as we are positive in the early hours of Thursday. The market continues to see a lot of people willing to jump into the market to try to find “value”, or cheaper gold. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday as we are just simply consolidating a bit and continuing the overall grind higher. At this point, it looks like the $3,800 level is going to continue to be resistance, but if we can break above there, we could go looking to the $3,900 level. And now we are starting to think about the $4,000 level, which is about 11% higher than here. That doesn’t mean we get there overnight, but what it does mean is that traders continue to jump into the market. There’s just nothing here that suggests gold is going to suddenly fall from the sky like rain. This market has a considerable amount of noise right around the $3,700 level, which should be translated into support again if we get there anytime soon. And then we have the 50-day EMA at $3,550 and rising, followed by the $3,500 level, which, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that previously had been massive resistance. Based on the ascending triangle that we had broken out of down here, the projected target was $3,800 and we have hit that. So, a little bit of profit taking I think is going on for technical traders but given enough time. When this thing drops and bounces, that’s where more people will jump in trying to ride that wave to the next couple of targets to the upside, as we remain very bullish in this gold markets. Silver Continues to Race Higher on Thursday – The early hours of Thursday have seen a lot of bullish pressure in the silver market, as the silver market continues to be a massive winner. This is despite the fact that the US dollar is still stable, so this is true strength in silver. Technical Analysis – The silver market has rallied a bit during the early hours here on Thursday as we continue to see silver really take off. We are above the $45 level in pre-open pit outcry trading. So, with this, I think we are setting up for continued momentum. Nonetheless, even if we do pull back from here, and I think that happens sooner or later, there are a couple of areas that I’ll be watching, specifically the $44 region for some type of support as it was important previously. And then again, the $42 region, as it had been the top of a bullish flag and has already shown itself to offer support on the pullback based on the measured move of the bullish flag. We’re looking at about $46. I think that makes perfect sense here. I don’t know that we will get there tomorrow, but I do think that you’ve got a scenario where each time we pull back, you’re looking for a dip and then the right side of the V on the chart where the momentum starts to shift to the upside. I’ve got no interest whatsoever in shorting silver and in fact, probably wouldn’t even consider thinking about it until we get below the crucial $40 level, which at this point has become basically the floor in the market. Silver has done this without the US dollar falling apart. So that shows you just how much strength there is in silver on Thursday as we are just ripping higher at this point.
On the day gold closed up $4.80 at $3736.90, and silver closed up $0.92 at $44.70.
On Friday the price of gold moved to session highs as traders expect a significant cut in interest rates both in October and December. It’s best to remember that these rate cuts have been expected for some time now and are already factored into the price of gold. If for any reason the FOMC decides it has room to continue its fight against inflation the price of gold could become unstable. In the longer term, however, this market has so much bullish buzz that any weakness will likely be met with fresh buyers. And $4000.00 gold is likely only a matter of time. If you are looking for a spoiler, consider the COMEX is increasing margins by 6.25% for gold and 6.67% for silver effective 9/26/2025. This suggests they are trying to cool down this market because such changes increase margin requirements. This could force liquidation and lower prices.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold firms as inflation data keeps Fed rate cut bets alive – Gold gained on Friday after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, reinforcing bets that the Federal Reserve may continue with interest rate cuts later this year. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,761.41 per ounce as of 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT), after hitting a record $3,790.82 earlier in the week. The metal has risen 2% this week. “Monthly PCE data is in line, though personal income and spending were a tenth above expectations. Nothing from this data will prevent the Fed from carrying on with another cautious rate cut at the October meeting,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Data showed that U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll. Investors now see an 88% probability of a rate cut in October and a 64% chance of another in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Markets will also watch remarks from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman later in the day for clues on the Fed’s stance. Gold, a traditional safe haven, typically benefits from lower interest rates. On the trade front, President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on imported drugs, trucks and furniture, effective October 1. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.5% to $45.46 per ounce, hitting an over 14-year high, while palladium gained 1.3% to $1,266.50, putting it on track for a weekly gain. Analysts and traders note that silver and platinum are gaining momentum amid elevated gold prices, with investors turning to more affordable alternatives. “Chinese President Xi’s pledge to cut net Chinese carbon emissions by 7-10% by 2035 has also spurred buying of silver which is used in solar cells,” Wong said. He noted that sentiment was further supported by Freeport’s force majeure at the Grasberg copper mine. Platinum rose 1.2% to $1,547.42, its highest in more than 12 years.
On the day gold closed up $38.40 at $3775.30, and silver closed up $1.52 at $46.22.
Platinum closed up $52.00 at $1582.70, and palladium closed up $27.00 at $1291.40.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,900.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,650.00. First resistance is seen at $3,800.00 and then at this week’s high of $3,824.60. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $3,749.70 and then at this week’s low of $3,718.10. December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $47.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $41.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $45.53 and then at $46.00. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $44.06 and then at this week’s low of $43.37.
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