Commentary for Friday, Oct 17, 2025 – Today gold closed down $90.30 at $4189.90, and silver closed down $3.16 at $49.86. Considering Thursday’s strong close today’s significant dip to the downside should suggest volatility is increasing. But traders bought this dip in the aftermarket, which was higher by almost $50.00. Suggesting underlying strength. And at this point investors may be considering a cooling trend for gold and silver. Prompted by the President’s still fragile truce in Gaza and the profit taking. But in the back of my mind, I’m still wondering about recent stratospheric prices? Why so high and why so fast? The answer is not simple, but I feel that investors are now adding the “fear factor” to traditional bullish drivers like lower interest rates, rising inflation, geopolitical tension and the subsequent increasing safe haven interest. Last Friday gold closed at $3975.90 / silver at $46.94. On the week gold was higher by $214.00, and silver was higher by $2.95.
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On Monday gold set a fresh record high of $4100.00 in the early trade and silver scored a fresh near term high of $52.00 on what looks like a short squeeze created over rumors that there is now not enough physical silver available to meet current demands. These bullish factors are further intensified as the government shutdown enters day 12 with little compromise from the Republicans or Democrats. Still, it’s interesting that the price of gold is surging higher considering the Gaza truce. Traders expected to see lower gold prices and lower safe haven demand…so what’s going on? It is possible that this surprise in gold and silver was created by Trump’s comments last Friday which reignited trade tensions with China. But one thing in sure, bullish sentiment is heating up. Across our trading desk we saw mostly big buyers even at these elevated levels. Once again $5000.00 gold is in the headlights according to Bank of America.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Pablo Sinja) – Gold, silver surge to all-time highs on trade jitters and rate-cut optimism – Gold notched another record high on Monday, as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions sent investors flocking to safe-haven assets and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts added to the metal’s allure. Silver mirrored gold’s ascent, also hitting an all-time high. Spot gold was up 1.9% to $4,093.39 per ounce, as of 10:04 a.m. ET (1404 GMT), after hitting a record $4,096.35/oz. U.S. gold futures for December delivery surged 2.8% to $4,113.40. “Rises in gold and silver prices happen when investors are concerned about the state of the world, either economically or politically,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, adding that expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts are also supporting prices. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with China on Friday, ending an uneasy truce between the world’s two largest economies. Traders are, meanwhile, now pricing in a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in October and a 100% chance for December. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest rate environments. Gold has climbed 56% this year and scaled the $4,000/oz milestone for the first time last week, buoyed by geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and robust central bank buying, among other factors. Analysts at the Bank of America and Societe Generale now expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its forecast to an average of $4,488/oz next year. “Given the carousel of drivers, and how short-lived dips have been, this rally has legs in our view, but a near-term correction would be healthier for a longer-term uptrend,” said Suki Cooper, global head, commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank. Spot silver rose 3.3% to $51.91/oz, touching a record high of $52/oz earlier in the session, buoyed by the same factors supporting gold and spot market tightness. Goldman Sachs said it expects silver prices to rise further in the medium term, driven by private investment flows, but warned of heightened near-term volatility. Technical indicators show both metals are overbought, with the relative strength index (RSI) at 80 for gold and 83 for silver. Platinum rose 4% to $1,651.20 and palladium gained 4.3% to $1,465.97.
On the day gold closed up $132.70 at $4108.60, and silver closed up $3.19 at $50.13.
On Tuesday the price of gold dipped on the open, testing support at $4100.00 which might suggest this bull market is tired and gold will move lower in the short term. But today our shiny friend closed nicely in the green. So, what’s up? Most insiders believe that if a drift to the downside develops it will be healthy and stabilize this market. There is also a chance that a change in investor mood may prompt profit taking – a bearish development in the short term. But figuring price direction in gold and silver is difficult especially as rumors of a short squeeze persist. In the bullion market, a bit of patience could prove rewarding at this time. It would give investors a chance to rebalance or to rethink the ratios of their gold and silver positions.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Pressure Upside – The gold market continues to see a bit of strength in the early part of the Tuesday session, but it also looks as if it is seeing a bit of hesitation at these lofty levels. This market continues to attract a lot of headlines, so it will remain noisy. Technical Analysis – Gold initially did take off to the upside during the trading session here on Tuesday, but it does look like the $4,200 level is offering a bit of resistance. And truthfully, this is a market that I think desperately needs to pull back. We are getting overdone pretty rapidly here. And of course, the only thing you’re hearing out there on the financial channels will be stories about gold and silver. So that’s almost always a sign that you’re getting closer to the end than the beginning. So, I think ultimately this is a market that pulls back and could offer support here. We’ll just have to wait and see. $4,000 probably ends up being psychological support that people will pay attention to. If we break down below $3,950, then we could drop all the way to $3,800, which quite frankly, I think would be very healthy in this environment. But the 50-day EMA racing towards that level, I think would only add more support. We could, of course, just continue to go higher and break through the $4,200 level, but I don’t like that move. That being said, I could have said that about half the moves that we’ve had over the last couple of months as the market has just exploded to the upside. Watch the US dollar if it starts to pick up a little bit of a bid that can lead to a little heaviness here, although that correlation has been broken as of late. Silver Continues to See Volatility – The silver market has been very active in the early hours of Tuesday, as we are continuing to see a lot of action around the $50 level. This market continues to attract a lot of headlines, which is a sign of danger as well. The silver market has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Tuesday, as we continue to bounce around the $50 level by breaking to the upside at one point above $52 and falling below 49. So, this tells me that the market is certainly running out of confidence. I think there are going to be some questions here about whether or not this can keep up. I think the answer, of course, is I don’t think it can. I think this market desperately needs some type of correction. And we are seeing a massive battle between the silver futures markets and the spot markets, because quite frankly, the spot market has been higher than futures for a while. And in fact, as I look, the spot market is about $1.50 higher. This is because there’s demand for physical metals out there at the moment. The backwardation in the futures contract does suggest that eventually we are going to fall given enough time. I’m starting to hear a lot of things. Quite frankly, almost everything on my newsfeed is about silver, which tells me we’re getting close to the end here. Gold is a little bit different situation. You can make an argument for gold for multiple reasons. At this point, it’s just about a silver short squeeze, which although we’ve seen quite a bit of volatility and a huge push higher, we’ve also seen it push right back down. I think we’re getting to a very dangerous point on this chart.
On the day gold closed up $30.10 at $4138.70, and silver closed up $0.18 at $50.31.
On Wednesday the price of gold continued to surge, reaching $4215.00 before settling somewhat but still finishing nicely in the green. Even through gold has surged 60% this year alone I would not bet against higher prices through 2026. Investors are lining up for gold and silver bullion in a time of growing uncertainty here and in the overseas markets. And this bullish happiness is also underpinned by the growing certainty that interest rates will soon be moving lower. Across our trading desk most of the action is fresh buying of gold and silver bullion. But caution here is a good play because there are also sellers of gold and silver bullion. The smart money should now be considering at least the possibility of the inevitable profit taking.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold extends record run past $4,200 on rate-cut hopes, safe-haven fervor – Gold prices breached $4,200 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, extending a record rally as rising interest rate cut bets and geopolitical jitters send investors flocking to the safe-haven metal. Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,206.59 per ounce as of 10:19 a.m. ET (1419 GMT), after hitting an all-time high of $4,217.95 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.4% to $4,222.30. “The metal has been on a tear, and it doesn’t look like it wants to stop. With U.S.-China trade tensions being reignited in the last few days, investors have even more reason to hedge their long equity bets by diversifying into gold,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com. Gold has surged over 60% this year, driven by a confluence of factors including geopolitical tensions, rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization and strong ETF inflows. “With the $5,000 handle now just $800 away, I wouldn’t bet against gold getting there eventually,” Razaqzada said, adding that a short-term correction is likely to shake out weaker hands and attract fresh dip buyers. The dollar slipped against a basket of peers after Federal Reserve Chair Powell struck a dovish tone on Tuesday, saying the U.S. labor market remained mired in “low-hiring, low-firing doldrums.” Gold is considered a traditional hedge against uncertainty and inflation, and also thrives in low-rate environments as it is a non-yielding asset. Traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October with a 98% probability, followed by another cut in December, which is fully priced in at 100%. Adding to the safe-haven bid President Trump said Washington was considering cutting some trade ties with China after both sides imposed tit-for-tat port fees this week. Markets are also watching the U.S. government shutdown, which has halted official data and may cloud policymakers’ outlook abroad. Silver climbed 2.4% to $52.69, following Tuesday’s record high of $53.6. Silver’s surge is driven by a tight London supply, marked by extreme backwardation and record lease rates, but it could reverse quickly if shortages ease, Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone, said. Elsewhere, platinum climbed 1.2% to $1,657.45 and palladium rose 1% to $1,541.50.
On the day gold closed up $38.20 at $4176.90, and silver closed up $0.76 at $51.07.
On Thursday the price of gold moved to a record high of $4290.00 fueled by the continuing government shutdown, growing US/China trade tensions and the likelihood of lower interest rates before the holidays. To say that the safe haven bullion trade in both gold and silver is hot would be an understatement, suggesting that now is not the time to sell. Traders are now considering $5000.00 gold. And fresh new records in silver as this short squeeze develops. Still, I believe this market is overbought and have been expecting price consolidation in gold and silver for months. The public, however, is buying bullion with both hands as uncertainty grows. And this fireworks show does not look like it wants to cool off to any degree anytime soon.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Safe-haven surge, Fed rate-cut bets drive gold to new record highs – Gold hit a record high for the fourth straight session on Thursday, as investors flocked to the safe-haven metal on brewing U.S.-China trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, with bets on interest rate cuts fueling the momentum. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,242.65 per ounce, as of 09:10 a.m. ET (1310 GMT) after bullion touched a record high of $4,254.61 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 1.3% at $4,256.70. The yellow metal has gained over 60% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarisation and robust ETF inflows. “Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around U.S.-China. If no deal is reached between the U.S.-China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5000/oz barrier,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering U.S.-China trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing China’s expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains. Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities of 98% and 95%, respectively. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda said. HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355 an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted scheduled economic data, with a Treasury official warning it could cost the economy up to $15 billion a week in lost output. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $52.96 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $53.60 on Tuesday, tracking gold’s rally and supported by tightness in the spot market. Platinum rose 0.7% to $1,665.24 and palladium climbed 1.8% to $1,564.00.
On the day gold closed up $103.30 at $4280.20, and silver closed up $1.95 at $53.02.
On Friday the price of gold opened steady around $4360.00 but quickly tested support at $4220.00, introducing some doubt about bullish resolve at these record levels. Yes, some physical investors are cashing in, especially those who bought this market just a year ago because a solid 50% investment gain in 12 months is difficult to ignore. Still, big players – like banks and hedge funds are talking about $5000.00 gold in 2026. So, today’s weakness looks more like a “rest” than the beginning of a major downtrend. My bet is that the pros will buy this weakness and ride out this volatility. The technical guys see solid support for gold at $4000.00 and support for silver at $47.00. Buyers in both metals still outnumber sellers by a large degree.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold pulls back after record high on firm dollar, Trump’s China remarks – Gold prices fell more than 2% on Friday after hitting a record high above $4,300 per ounce, pressured by a firmer dollar and U.S. President Donald Trump’s comment that a “full-scale” tariff on China would be unsustainable. Spot gold was down 2.2% to $4,228.89 per ounce at 10:21 a.m. ET (1421 GMT), after scaling an all-time high of $4,378.69 earlier in the session. The metal breached $4,300/oz for the first time Thursday and is set for a weekly gain of 5.2%. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 1.5% to $4,239.30. The dollar index was up 0.2%, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Earlier in the session, gold had temporarily been on track for its biggest gain since September 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers fueled the global financial crisis. “I think Trump’s more conciliatory tone since the initial announcement of 100% tariffs has taken a little heat out of the precious trade,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Trump on confirmed a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, easing market jitters over the escalating trade conflict between the two countries. Wall Street’s main indexes were mixed at open on Friday after the comments, while worries over regional bank credit issues kept investors on edge. Gold, a traditional hedge against uncertainty, has surged more than 62% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, a switch out of the dollar, and strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds. Bets on U.S. interest rate cuts have also supported the non-yielding asset. “We’re forecasting gold to average $4,488 in 2026 and see further upside risk from broader structural factors supporting the market,” said Suki Cooper, global head, commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut at the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and another in December. HSBC on Friday raised its 2025 gold price forecast by $100 to $3,455 per ounce, and projected it would reach $5,000 an ounce in 2026. Spot silver fell 4.1% to $51.99 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $54.47, tracking the rally in gold. The metal is set for a 7.4% weekly gain. Platinum fell 6.1% to $1,607.65 and palladium lost 7% to $1,500.00.
On the day gold closed down $90.30 at $4189.90, and silver closed down $3.16 at $49.86.
Platinum closed down $132.60 at $1602.30, and palladium closed down $155.80 at $1499.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight record high of $4,392.00 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,291.30 and then at $4,250.00. December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $55.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $46.70. First resistance is seen at the overnight record high of $53.765 and then at $54.00. Next support at the overnight low of $52.25 and then $52.00.
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