Commentary for Jan, 16, 2026 – Today gold closed down $27.90 at $4588.40, and silver closed down $3.79 at $88.09. It is true that gold made fresh record highs this week, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in the recent pricing model because Chief Powell’s next move is linked to how aggressive the FOMC becomes between now and the end of this year, even though Trump’s “lower interest rate” policy still holds great sway. The informed among us expect a gradual decrease in rates, perhaps two or three smaller cuts depending on the latest economic data. We will be closed for Martin Luther Kind Jr. Day (Monday, Jan 19th). Last Friday gold closed at $4490.30, and silver closed at 78.88 . On the week gold was up $98.10, and silver was lower by $9.21.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. The present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the gold and silver trade was off to a hot start with fresh record prices, created by safe haven demand in bullion. This, the result of rising geopolitical tension, Trump’s rhetoric relating to Fed Chief Powell, the President’s possible reactions to widespread unrest against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the Iceland fiasco. These kind of new problems lead analysts to believe that higher prices are in the making. I expected to see profit taking from the public today, but this is not the case. Investors are busy, however if our phones are any indication, they are ringing off the hook, so thanks for your patience. Finally, the World Gold Council does not see gold as extremely overbought from a technical perspective until it breaches $4770.00.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold cracks $4,600/oz as Fed uncertainty fans safe-haven rush – Gold hit a record above $4,600 per ounce on Monday and silver reached a fresh peak as investors piled into safe-haven assets after uncertainty deepened over a Trump administration criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,584.91 per ounce as of 09:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT), after earlier hitting a record high of $4,620. U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 2.1% to $4,596.70. “Elevated uncertainty plays directly into the gold market, (and) every week we seem to have another area of uncertainty added,” said Michael Haigh, global head of commodities research at Societe Generale. The backdrop underpinning the rally looked unlikely to reverse anytime soon, he added. Gold surged more than 64% last year, its best performance since 1979, while silver logged its strongest year on record with a 146.8% gain. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has intensified pressure on the Fed, threatening to indict Chair Jerome Powell over his comments on a building renovation project, an act Powell called a “pretext” to gain control over rate cuts Trump seeks. Powell’s term ends in May. The Trump administration is expected to interview BlackRock’s Rick Rieder as a potential candidate to succeed him, Fox News reported. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady during its January 27–28 meeting, after cutting them by 75 basis points last year. However, markets are still pricing in two further rate cuts later this year, boosting appetite for non-yielding assets like gold. Geopolitical tensions also remained elevated as Trump weighed potential responses to a deadly crackdown on protests in Iran, following his removal of Venezuelan President Maduro and floating the idea of acquiring Greenland. Spot silver also hit an all-time high of $85.69 and was later up 5.1% at $84 per ounce. Gold and silver “go together”, said Ned Naylor-Leyland, gold and silver fund manager at Jupiter Asset Management, but “when silver captures flow, (it) really runs because it’s a smaller channel and it’s more sensitive to the flows in and out”. Spot platinum climbed 1.8% to $2,314.71 per ounce while palladium gained 1.9% to $1,850.82.
On the day gold closed up $114.00 at $4604.30, and silver closed up $5.73 at $84.61.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved again to record highs at $4630.00 before settling somewhat and finishing the day in the red. The latest CPI figures suggest inflation is cooling to some degree, but this is not necessarily a bearish sign for the bullion trade. Trump continues to pressure everyone for lower interest rates, a plus for gold. I like gold bullion even at these record levels because the geopolitical fireworks are not going away anytime soon. Long standing investors already know there is no substitute for gold bullion in our fiat monetary system. The price of silver still bothers me. I underestimated this explosion in pricing from the very beginning. Take a bow if you guessed even 5 years ago that silver would be driven to unbelievable levels because of industrial demand and Artificial Intelligence.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold hit a record high on Tuesday, as U.S. inflation data cemented bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainties drove safe-haven demand, while silver also hit a fresh peak. Spot gold gained 0.8% to $4,631.19 per ounce as of 09:50 a.m. ET (1450 GMT), following a record high of $4,634.33 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 0.6% to $4,641.30. “The reason for the slightly positive tone across the board in the markets was the benign CPI data (which) portends a higher likelihood of Fed rate cuts in the future,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The U.S. core Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in December, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Trump reiterated his push to cut interest rates “meaningfully” after the inflation data. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady at its January 27-28 meeting, though investors anticipate two interest rate cuts this year. Lower interest rates tend to be favorable for non-yielding bullion. Fundamental factors like geopolitical tensions and questions over Fed independence continue to support safe-haven gold, said Meger. Concerns over Fed independence grew after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, drawing criticism from former Fed chiefs and global central bankers. Trump has also threatened to slap a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, risking reopening old wounds with Beijing, Tehran’s top partner. Elsewhere, Russia struck cities across Ukraine with missiles and drones overnight. Commerzbank raised its 2026 year-end gold forecast to $4,900. Meanwhile, CME Group said on Monday it will adjust margin setting for precious metals to address market volatility. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 4.7% to $88.95 per ounce after hitting an all-time high of $89.10 earlier in the session. “Despite technical indicators screaming correction, traders continue to favor bullish options (for silver)… Investors should prepare for sharp countermoves within this high-volatility environment, even as the broader bullish bias remains intact,” said Hugo Pascal, a precious metals trader at InProved. Spot platinum rose 1.9% to $2,387.35 per ounce and palladium rose 1.8% to $1,875.35 per ounce.
On the day gold closed down $15.10 at $4589.20, and silver closed up $1.27 at $85.88.
On Wednesday the price of gold was choppy around $4635.00 but traders took profits and it consolidated around $4605.00 before bouncing higher and finishing nicely in the green for the day. Silver also finished in the green and seems happy around $90.00. Both metals remain firm; the result of safe haven demand and the latest US PPI (Producer Price Index) which suggests that inflation remains stubbornly high. This lessens the chance of an interest rate cut as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meets January 27th and 28th. The Fed could leave interest rates unchanged, hoping that inflation will cool. Geopolitical tension and rising inflation support higher prices as does lower interest rates favored by President Trump. So fresh record prices may again be in the making, especially in the somewhat confusing shorter term.
FXEmpire (Christpher Lewis) – Another Day, Another All-Time High – The gold market continues to be very strong during trading on Wednesday, as the geopolitical risks and central bank accumulation continue to drive prices higher. Technical Analysis – The gold market continues to be very strong, as you can see with the market now testing yet another all-time high. There are a lot of geopolitical issues out there that I think traders will be watching, and with that being the case, I think you have to look at short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. In this environment, I do believe that any short-term pullback that opens up value, you have to take advantage of. Gold is getting a boost due to geopolitical concerns as well as the US dollar shrinking a bit. Nonetheless, it really doesn’t matter. This is a market that’s been on fire for a while and now continues to see plenty of value hunting. The $4,400 level is an area that I think will continue to be support, and at this juncture, I do think that if we did get back there, the enormous amount of buying would be kind of impressive, even in this environment of runaway momentum. The 50-day EMA is all the way down at the $4,300 level, and based on the ascending triangle, we could be looking at $4,900. There is nothing on this chart that suggests we can’t get there, so with that being the case, I remain bullish. I think any time you get a little bit of a pullback; you have to look at it as a potential opportunity in a market that is just chugging right along. There is no opportunity to short this market anytime soon. Gold continues to see plenty of momentum, and this is something that I will not fight anytime soon.
On the day gold closed up $37.10 at $4626.30, and silver closed up $4.99 at $90.87.
On Thursday the price of gold moved between $4580.00 and $4620.00, finishing mildly in the red as traders likely took profits from yesterday’s pop to the upside. And the cooling of geopolitical to some degree. The Dollar Index moving to weekly highs has taken some of the wind out of the bulls but generally investors expect at least solid support in gold or perhaps even fresh new highs in 2026. Why? Because even with all the Trump bombast Mr. and Mrs. America does not see much in the way of reduced spending and remain suspicious about inflation. Across our trading desk there have been some sales this week. But there is not a stampede by any means. Most insiders expect fresh records because the world is a dangerous place and there is no substitute for bullion in their hands, especially with a monetary system driven by fiat currency.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Price Retreats on Easing Iran Tensions and Surging Dollar Strength – Momentum Stalls as Gold Retreats from Record Highs – Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging lower on Thursday, with price action also subdued for a third session, suggesting it is losing upside momentum and may be getting ready for a near-term correction but not a change in trend. At 13:38 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4,595.76, down $30.81 or -0.67%. Rising Yields and Surging Dollar Apply Pressure – Higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. Dollar are weighing on dollar-denominated gold. Yields found support at the 50-day moving average at 4.126% before moving up to 4.16%. The move helped boost the greenback to 99.129, its highest level since December 2. It also put the dollar index in a position to break out over resistance at 99.384. There is room to run over this level, which could curb gains in gold or fuel an even deeper correction. Trump’s Greenland Focus and Iran Pivot Shape Safe-Haven Demand – According to Reuters, gold traders are eyeing President Trump’s focus on Greenland as one reason for underlying support, the other being the situation in Iran. Trump’s remark that he may pause military action against Iran has dampened safe-haven demand for bullion after the Iranian government’s violent response to protesters drove gold to a record high of $4,642.97 on Wednesday. Regarding Greenland, Trump said on Wednesday that the U.S. needs Greenland and that Denmark cannot be relied upon to protect the island, Reuters noted. As for Iran, Trump said he had been told that killings in Iran’s crackdown on protests were easing, Reuters also said, suggesting the President would take a wait-and-see approach to the situation. Rate Cut Expectations Keep Dip-Buyers Engaged – Despite the lost momentum, investors are looking forward to the possibility of a near-term correction. Not only is the market being supported by the 50-day moving average, which helps maintain the “buy the dip” trading strategy, but expectations of up to at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year are also underpinning the valuable asset. Low interest rate expectations are propping up the market and controlling the uptrend, while bouts of safe-haven demand are powering gold higher over the short term. Key Technical Levels Signal Potential Correction Zone – Technically, the main trend is up according to the daily swing chart and the 50-day moving average. A trade through $4,642.97 will signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a move below $4,274.02 changes the trend to down. If there is a near-term correction, a 50% level at $4,458.49 will be the first downside target and value-buying opportunity. The major support and trend indicator is the 50-day moving average at $4,274.40. Short-Term Outlook: Correction Likely, But Uptrend Remains Intact – Looking ahead, rising yields and a stronger dollar as well as easing geopolitical concerns could weigh on gold and force a correction into the pivot at $4,458.49. With the main trend up, buyers will embrace any pullback as a buying opportunity. This process is likely to continue as long as the 50-day moving average support remains intact.
On the day gold closed down $10.00 at $4616.30, and silver closed up $1.01 at $91.88.
On Friday gold opened choppy around $4600.00 but quickly tested support at $4550.00. Traders bought this dip (a bullish plus) but gold still closed in the red. This round of profit taking was expected as problems in the Middle East seem to be cooling down and dollar strength is trending higher. I think most are expecting higher prices in gold and silver over the long term. But the public has turned somewhat mixed in their pricing view, at least in the short term across our trading desk. Investors seem ready to take profits in silver and sometimes in gold, perhaps parking their profits in cash for now. I think $5000.00 gold is on the table this year, but this market may turn sluggish if the FOMC gets aggressive with the number of rate cuts.
Reuters (Anmol Chouey) – Gold eases as profit‑taking, easing geopolitical risks weigh – Gold fell on Friday as investors booked profits after recent record highs, while signs of easing geopolitical tensions further dampened the metal’s safe-haven appeal. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,606.54 per ounce as of 09:14 a.m. ET (1414 GMT). However, the metal is poised for its second consecutive weekly gain of 2.1% after scaling a record peak of $4,642.72 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for February delivery edged 0.3% lower to $4,610.70. “It’s a general retreat in the commodity complex after weeks of aggressive gains, with some profit-taking. The de-escalation of Middle East tensions has also removed some of the geopolitical premium in gold and other metals, especially silver,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Geopolitical tensions appeared to ease as protests in Iran subsided, while U.S. President Donald Trump took a wait‑and‑see approach and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin moved to mediate in Iran and de‑escalate the situation. On the trade front, the U.S. and Taiwan struck a deal on Thursday that lowers tariffs on many of Taiwan’s semiconductor exports and channels new investments into U.S. tech, and risks infuriating China. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged through the first half of the year, with a first 25‑basis‑point cut projected in June. Safe-haven gold tends to do well during times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as well as when interest rates are low. “I still think we have a chance of getting to $5,000 sometime this year, punctuated with these big corrections in the meantime,” Meir said. Physical gold demand in India stayed weak this week as record-high prices dampened retail buying, while bullion traded at a premium in China on steady pre–Lunar New Year demand. Spot silver shed 3.3% to $89.231 per ounce, although it was headed for a weekly gain of 11% after hitting an all-time high of $93.57 in the previous session. Spot platinum dropped 3.9% to $2,315.72 and headed for weekly gain, palladium lost 3.4% to $1,740.01 per ounce.
On the day gold closed down $27.90 at $4588.40, and silver closed down $3.79 at $88.09.
Platinum closed down $86.20 at $2303.80, and palladium closed down $53.80 at $1805.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,750.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,400.00. First resistance is seen at the record high of $4,650.50 and then at $4,675.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $4,584.50 and then at $4,550.00. March silver futures bulls have the strong chart advantage and their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $80.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight record high of $93.70 and then at $94.00. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $86.125 and then at $85.00.
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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