Commentary for Friday, June 13, 2025 – Today gold closed up $50.30 at $3431.20, and silver closed up $0.07 at $36.28. While the price of gold was nearly unchanged Monday through Wednesday of this week things began to heat up Thursday and Friday. The price of gold moved to session highs as safe haven demand was sparked over Israeli air strikes which are related to Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran then promised retaliation against Israel and the United States. At the same time President Trump issued a warning to Iran – accept a nuclear deal to avoid further “planned attacks”. The price of crude oil jumped to 75.00 a barrel. Whether all of this will produce fresh record prices for gold in the short term is uncertain but a cooling off period will benefit all concerned. Last Friday gold closed at $3322.70 / silver at $36.03. On the week gold was higher by $108.50, and silver was up $0.25.
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On Monday gold was choppy this morning trading between $3308.00 and $3335.00 (highs on the day). I would call this trade a “steady as she goes” but favoring the high end of the range for the time being even though the Dollar Index is trading on both sides of unchanged (99.00). Traders are looking for fresh information, perhaps the outcome of the Chinese meeting in London to discuss trade restrictions will provide some incentive.
The Consumer Price Index will be out this Friday and could get some attention, but this looks like a quiet week for gold, still a fluid market in transition. Bloomberg this week sees higher inflation as tariffs reach consumers. Silver’s run to higher ground is interesting, since early June we are higher by $2.00. I would not chase this market but would consider some profit taking even though the technical picture suggests higher numbers are in the making.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold edges up with spotlight on US-China trade talk – “Gold prices edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, as market participants kept a close eye on the ongoing U.S.-China trade talks. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,320.15 an ounce, as of 0956 ET (1356 GMT), after dropping to an over one-week low earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $3,341.90. The U.S. dollar index remained subdued, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for other currency holders. Senior U.S. and Chinese officials meet in London to discuss tit-for-tat tariffs imposed on each others products this year along with other trade restrictions. Last month, the two sides had agreed to a temporary pause, providing some relief to investors. “In the short term, if there is a positive outcome of the meeting, it could be a little negative for gold, but not too much,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. “I think a weaker economy, likely interest rate cuts and lower momentum on the risk appetite side is getting people to move into gold. And of course expectations of higher inflation.” Elsewhere, Russia said that its forces had taken control of more territory in Ukraine’s east-central region of Dnipropetrovsk, where the Kremlin said fighting was partly aimed at creating a “buffer zone.” Safe-haven gold becomes more attractive during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. It also tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset. Investors also await U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Friday, to gauge the country’s economic health and predict the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory. Data over the weekend showed that China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in May for the seventh straight month. Spot platinum gained 3.1% to $1,205.01, reaching its highest point since May 2021. Spot silver was up 1.3% to $36.41 per ounce, while palladium rose nearly 3% to $1,077.59.”
On the day gold closed up $9.40 at $3332.10, and silver closed up $0.66 at $36.69.
On Tuesday gold moved to daily highs on the open of $3345.00 but I believe we are still in a kind of consolidation mode even though there are several bullish factors developing on the geopolitical front. The bulls hold the technical advantage, and insiders will watch carefully any challenge of last week’s high of $3427.00. Still, $3500.00 gold represents tough, long standing overhead resistance so taking some profits along the way might make sense.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold prices rise as traders monitor US-China talks – “Gold prices rose on Tuesday amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, while traders closely monitored developments in trade talks between the U.S. and China. Spot gold was up 0.3% to $3,335.79 an ounce as of 10:15 a.m. EDT (1415 GMT) and U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $3,357.50. We’ve seen consolidation in recent weeks, but with solid underpinnings of uncertainty and central bank buying,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the talks with China were going well as the two sides met for a second day in London, seeking a breakthrough on export controls that have threatened a fresh rupture between the superpowers. The talks follow a temporary truce in May that established a 90-day pause on new tariffs. Israel deployed its navy to hit Iran-backed Houthi targets near the Red Sea port of Hodeida and threatened further action if the group persists with its attacks on the Jewish state. China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in May for the seventh straight month, official data showed on Saturday. Gold thrives amidst geopolitical and economic uncertainty as a safe-haven asset. Investors are also keenly awaiting the release on Wednesday of U.S. Consumer Price Index data, which could provide crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy decisions. Spot silver eased 0.8% to $36.42 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.4% to $1,214.29, after hitting its highest level since May 2021. Palladium lost nearly 1% to $1,064.08. “The rally in platinum has been supported by a combination of supply concerns, speculative interest, and a broader uplift across the precious metals complex,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. “Palladium is lagging primarily due to its narrower demand base and weaker investment appeal. Unlike platinum, palladium lacks a strong secondary demand narrative beyond auto catalysts.”
On the day gold closed down $11.20 at $3320.90, and silver closed down $0.15 at $36.54.
On Wednesday the price of gold made new daily highs of $3360.00, then reversed direction touching lows on the day of $3320.00 and then interestingly reversed direction making daily highs in the aftermarket of $3355.00. Inflation seems to be cooling, and this might suggest that the FOMC will cut interest rates sooner than expected has sparked bullish sentiment. The dollar is moving lower this morning, which is a plus for the metals. Surprisingly, the much talked about China – US tariff deal is done according to Trump. And the results are underwhelming. Another example of big talk and little action between the superpowers but something that could be the beginning of a cooling trend in the metals especially in the short term. So, it’s easy to see these crosswinds have created a rather volatile trade.
Whether or not gold and silver can challenge recent highs remains the big question. For gold the number is $3400.00 and for silver $37.00. If a challenge does not happen quickly traders believe a short term correction is in the making. I’m not excited over gold or silver prices until the Fed lowers interest rates. Until that happens look for back and forth pricing. The reason is that some expect interest rates to decrease this year but not dramatically. The Fed will focus on keeping inflation in check so the FOMC will remain cautious, perhaps capping interest rates and higher prices in the metals. On the other hand, today’s significant bounce to the upside suggests that $3500.00 gold is no longer on the back burner and may become a reality this year.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold holds gains after cooler-than-expected inflation data – “Gold prices rose on Wednesday, helped by cooler-than-expected inflation data that strengthened investors’ conviction the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by September. Spot gold was up 0.5% to $3,337.49 an ounce as of 0909 ET (1309 GMT) after rising as much as 1% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,358.80. Data showed the Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in April. In the 12 months through May, the CPI advanced 2.4% after gaining 2.3% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast CPI climbing 0.2% and increasing 2.5% year-on-year. “The surprise low print in core CPI has goosed the entire precious metals complex higher as yields and the dollar fall. The hope is that it will bring a Fed cut that much sooner,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Traders are currently pricing in a 68% chance of an interest rate cut in September by the U.S. central bank, according to CME FedWatch tool. On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. deal with China is done, with Beijing to supply magnets and rare earth minerals, while the U.S. will allow Chinese students at its colleges and universities. Trump said the deal is subject to final approval by him and President Xi Jinping. The market’s focus is now on the U.S. Producer Price Index data, due on Thursday before the Fed’s June 17-18 meeting. “The market will want to see gold and silver take out recent highs, $3,403 and $36.90 respectively, as a signal to charge higher. If we don’t rally strongly on surprisingly good data, then it may signal a short-term correction,” Wong added. Spot silver eased 0.7% to $36.32 per ounce. Platinum rose 3.8% to $1,268.12, its highest level since 2021. Palladium added 1.1% to $1,072.25.”
On the day gold closed up $0.40 at $3321.30, and silver closed down $0.37 at $36.17.
On Thursday the price of gold weakened considerably on the open but quickly turned around and moved to session highs of $3390.00 encouraging an already strong technical market. Still, these markets create significant crosswinds as usual. On the plus side for gold the PPI (Producer Price Index) is cooling, jobless claims remain elevated, safe haven demand created over increasing geopolitical tension continues, and the dollar weakens. On the minus side insiders will note that $3500.00 gold has been a traditionally tough nut to crack. One which encourages strong profit taking sentiment. Don’t get me wrong, I like this latest bullish surge in the price of both gold and silver. And I even believe this market has legs. At the same time there are always reasons for selling, especially at all-time highs, so be ready for sudden downdrafts.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the market has been bullish recently, but at this juncture, the market is also near a lot of downward pressure. This is a “buy on the dips” scenario. Technical Analysis – The gold market has been positive in the early hours on Thursday as we continue to press to the upside. But quite frankly, I think we are in an area that might be a little bit difficult to get above without a push. We’ve gotten fairly weak inflation numbers coming out of the United States, and that may have a little bit of an influence here. But quite frankly, with the US dollar getting hit as hard as it did in the early hours, I’m a little surprised that gold hasn’t taken advantage of this. So perhaps that correlation is starting to fade a bit. With this being the case, I am looking at gold with a buy on the dip mentality. I don’t necessarily think that you want to short gold. I just think that it’s possible that it’s going to be very noisy along the way. Ultimately, I do think that we will get back to the $3,500 level, but it’s probably going to take some work to get there. So, with that in mind, I would be somewhat cautious here, I would prefer to see a move towards the $3,300 level that then bounces, that I could take advantage of. If we don’t get that, we could race towards the $3,500 level. But for me, it’s obvious there’s a lot of resistance up here and we just need some type of bigger announcement or bigger statement or something to get gold moving. I really don’t have any interest in shorting this market, but if we broke down below 3,200, we’d have to start to rethink some things, with $3,000 underneath being what I consider the actual floor in the market where we have to look at the overall trend and see if it’s holding. Right now, though, the odds still favor the upside. I just think we’re kind of stuck at the moment. Silver Continues to See Buyers on Dips – The silver market initially fell on Thursday, only to turn things around after the weak PPI numbers in the USA. At this point, it remains very “buy on the dip” at this point in time. Technical Analysis – Silver initially plunged during the early hours on Thursday only to turn around and show signs of life near the $35.48 level. By doing so, this does suggest that perhaps we are going to continue to see a little bit of a “buy on the dip mentality.” And after the inflation numbers in the United States came out weaker than anticipated this week twice, this certainly looks like a market that I think given enough time probably continues to go higher. The US dollar, of course, is getting hit for this reason. So, with that being said, I am looking at silver as a potential move to the upside just waiting to happen. I would like to see a break above 37 dollars and then I would be adding but right now you clearly cannot short silver it’s going to take off quite some distance and ultimately, I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re just now getting started this is a market that’s been ripping higher for some time and with that I think and the added bonus of the US dollar shrinking the silver market is going to continue to be one of the better performers. If we were to break down below the $35.48 level, which I don’t think is likely, you have a situation where the market probably finds plenty of support near the $34 level. But I think it would take a lot to make that happen in this environment. So, I remain committed to the upside basically at this point in time.”
On the day gold closed up $59.60 at $3380.90, and silver closed up $0.04 at $36.21.
On Friday the price of gold moved higher as the long standing feud between Iran and Israel seriously escalates. It is an understatement to say that the US and Israel are worried about Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. Trump could drag out his old 2018 sanction approach to bring them to the bargaining table. But if we have learned anything from the Iraq fiasco threats against a totalitarian regime do not work. Reagan’s approach of “trust but verify” makes sense because it allows time to deescalate this mess. This escalation in my mind is not the end of world. It will likely, however, keep the price of gold and silver elevated in the short term. But I would not be surprised to see this market sell off before the end of this month.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sarah Qureshi) – Gold advances as Israel-Iran escalation fuels safe-haven bids – “Gold prices soared on Friday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets following Israeli airstrikes on Iran, re-igniting fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East.
Spot gold rose 1.7% at $3,439.79 an ounce as of 0923 EDT (1323 GMT), coming within striking distance of its record high of $3,500.05 set in April. Prices gained more than 4% so far this week. “Israel knocking out Iranian targets is causing a little bit of geopolitical scare in the market. Prices will stay elevated in the anticipation of what is to come, the retaliation by Iran,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Israel launched a barrage of strikes across Iran on Friday, saying it had attacked nuclear facilities and missile factories and killed a swathe of military commanders in what could be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran building an atomic weapon. U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Iran had brought the attack on itself by resisting a U.S. ultimatum in talks to restrict its nuclear program. Softer U.S. inflation prints earlier this week added extra shine to gold, bolstering expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Bullion is widely regarded as a safe asset, especially during times of economic turmoil and geopolitical unrest. It also tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. Goldman Sachs reiterated its forecast that structurally strong central bank buying will raise the gold price to $3,700 by end-2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. B of A sees a path for gold to rally to $4,000/oz over the next 12 months. On the physical front, demand in major Asian hubs weakened this week as rates soared, with prices in India zooming past the psychologically important 100,000-rupee mark. Spot silver eased 0.3% at $36.24 per ounce, gaining nearly 1% for the week. Platinum fell 3.9% to $1,244.91 and was up 6.3% for the week. Palladium fell 0.3% to $1,052.28 but added 0.7% so far this week.”
On the day gold closed up $50.30 at $3431.20, and silver closed up $0.07 $36.28 .
Platinum closed down $61.90 at $1210.80, and palladium closed down $22.50 at $1039.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at last week’s high of $3,427.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,250.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,467.00 and then at $3,477.30. First support is seen at $3,400.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $3,358.50. July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $40.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $37.03 and then at $37.50. Next support is seen at $36.00 and then at this week’s low of $35.58.”
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