Commentary for March, 27, 2026 – Today gold closed up $116.50 at $4492.00, and silver closed up $1.88 at $69.55. The near term future of gold and silver prices is still a bit fuzzy as traders buy time to see what the Fed does with short term interest rates. Most believe they will stand pat at present levels with an eye on inflation, especially because the US economy still looks solid. And it would be a safe bet to say that deescalating tension in the Middle East will not spark fresh safe haven demand. But today gold surged to recent highs around $4560.00, high enough to give bullish sentiment a shot in the arm. Joining the party is Wells Fargo who sees $6200.00 gold by year end. This very bullish prediction is driven by rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Last Friday gold closed at $4570.40, and silver closed at $69.36. On the week gold was down $78.40, and silver was up $0.19. Long term employee Harry Johnson is retiring; he called Friday with the news. We are sorry to see him go.
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On Monday the price of gold faded in the early trade, testing support at $4100.00 but recovered to session highs of $4500.00 – perhaps a plus but this is not enough to fully restore bullish sentiment in my mind as gold sees the biggest weekly losses in 6 years. The real enemy facing gold at the present are Treasury Yields. The fact that Trump and Iran have held constructive talks helps cool the most recent Middle East flare up and allows this market to settle forming a more constructive base. That is not to say that volatility will disappear because there are geopolitical cross winds which quickly come and go. But I believe investors will soon have better options, and time to balance their holdings relative to the developing interest rate policy. Some dealers claim these lower prices in gold and silver are just an old tactic called “shaking the tree”. An attempt to flush out weaker hands. I don’t buy this scenario because prices look like they are heading lower as interest rates are “stuck” so approach this market with caution.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold trims losses as Trump postpones strikes on Iran’s energy assets – Gold trimmed losses to recover from a four-month low on Monday, after U.S. President Donald Trump postponed military strikes on Iranian infrastructure, but prices were still down for a ninth straight session as bets on higher interest rates dimmed the metal’s appeal. Spot gold declined 0.9% to $4,448.32 per ounce by 1314 GMT, after falling over 8% earlier to a session low of $4,097.99. It posted its worst weekly performance since 1983 on Friday. U.S. gold futures dropped 2.7% to $4,451.40. “The overnight sell-off was a continuation of the long liquidation we’ve seen over the past several sessions, driven largely by expectations of rising interest rates. The dramatic reversal came after Trump’s post on Truth Social. The headline triggered broad reversals across markets – metals, energy and equities alike,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “It’s fair to assume that we’re going to see volatility continue,” he added. Higher energy prices due to the Iran war have lately increased bets on rates staying higher for longer. Gold, despite its reputation as an inflation hedge and safe haven, has struggled to benefit as elevated rates raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Trump said the U.S. and Iran have held constructive talks and that he would postpone any strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure. Conversations with Iran will continue throughout the week, he said in a social media post. However, Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a source, said there are no direct or indirect communications with the U.S. Following Trump’s comments, oil prices plunged and the dollar moved lower. A weaker dollar makes greenback‑priced bullion more affordable to other currency holders. Spot gold prices have fallen nearly 16% since the Middle East conflict began on February 28 and has retreated over 20% from its record peak of $5,594.82 reached on January 29. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.5% to $68.76 per ounce while platinum slipped $1,892.22. Palladium added 3.2% to $1,448.65.
On the day gold closed down $166.30 at $4404.10, and silver closed down $0.31 at $69.05.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved between $4320.00 and $4440.00, a bit subdued considering the dangerous geopolitical situation developing in the Middle East. At this point, the investor should look at the big picture, considering oil prices, stubborn inflation, and rising geopolitical tension worldwide. These will eventually win the bullish argument but not before interest rates move lower. I like the bullion option because it is effective and easy to hide in troubled times. You may not make a fortune at these higher prices, but most insiders believe you will do just fine if you don’t panic about the possible downswings. Still, gold is struggling, as the momentum players are still in charge, so I don’t see fresh record highs anytime soon. But this weakness presents opportunities to reevaluate your holdings. The public remains a seller of gold and silver bullion, but they are cautious and waiting for the next shoe to drop relative to interest rates.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold extends decline on expectations of high interest rates – Gold prices extended their decline on Tuesday, weighed down by persistent Middle East tensions that fanned worries of inflation and expectations of higher interest rates globally. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,377.93 per ounce by 9:00 a.m. ET (1300 GMT), after hitting its lowest since November at $4,097.99 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 0.6% to $4,378.80. “If the war continues and energy prices keep grinding higher, it’s not great news for gold,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “Gold is going to be under pressure for the second quarter, but I think by yearend, the gold outlook should again look pretty sweet, as we are hoping that by then central banks like the Fed will have more freedom and we could see the dollar ease and rates drop,” he added. Bullion is considered a safe‑haven asset and an inflation hedge, but because it yields no interest, it loses appeal in a high‑rate environment. Iran launched waves of missiles at Israel on Tuesday, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said there had been “very good and productive” talks aiming at halting the war unleashed by the U.S. and Israel now raging across the Middle East. The war has effectively halted shipments of about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up energy prices and stoking inflation concerns. Following this, top central banks have emphasized their readiness to act if the war drives a broader surge in prices. Spot gold has fallen about 22% from its record peak of $5,594.82 reached on January 29. “The recent price slump is likely to be just as much of an overreaction as the massive rise at the start of the year. In a sense, the pendulum has swung from one extreme to the other for gold,” analysts at Commerzbank said in a note. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.3% to $68.20, platinum added 0.2% to $1,885.18 and palladium lost 2.9% to $1,392.25.
On the day gold closed down $4.80 at $4399.30, and silver closed up $0.22 at $69.27.
On Wednesday the price of gold was choppy between $4535.00 and $4580.00, featuring a big jump to higher ground, reacting to lower interest rates, as Iran showed little interest in compromising. Even as the US has drafted a 15 point proposal with would end the conflict delivered to Iran through Pakistan. There is a great deal of confusion as to what will happen next, so the uncertainty factor is spurring higher gold prices. The good news for the bulls is that today’s price surge has snapped a nine day losing streak for gold according to Bloomberg. This possible “repacking” of the Middle East leaves Trump a bit isolated but this will not last long as the various power brokers claim victory in a region which changes very little over time. I think gold and silver will move higher this year, perhaps scoring record highs if interest rates fade.
Today this comment by veteran trader Jim Wycoff is a classic – There’s an old trading adage that says markets will do anything and everything possible to frustrate the largest number of traders. Such appears to be the case at present in the safe-haven metals: They sell off on keener risk aversion and rally on better risk appetite. Apparently, the metals traders on this day are focusing more on inflation prospects receding if the war in the Middle East de-escalates. And veteran gold market watchers also remember when their metal used to rally on inflation fears.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Rises on Lower Rates – The gold markets rose in early trading on Wednesday, as rates in the USA have dropped a bit. With the idea of the war possibly ending, energy shocks will continue to be a worry. Technical Analysis – The gold markets have been very bullish during the early part of the Wednesday trading session testing the $4,600 level as we gapped higher after reports came out that the United States and Iran are starting to talk. The 15-point peace plan that Iran has received certainly helps the idea that at least there’s some hope to the war ending fairly quickly. Technical Support and Geopolitical Drivers – The markets clearly are looking for some type of peace settlement, and with the rates in America dropping, that makes gold a little bit more attractive. Whether or not gold takes off from here really comes down to the warring parties, would be my guess, but there’s a whole slew of issues to worry about. If we can get rid of energy inflation issues, which is what that would do in theory, at least, then we have to worry about the other forms of inflation, but as things stand right now, this was a perfect hammer right at the 200-day EMA and a bounce, which will have caught the attention of many traders. So far, so good, but I think it’s still early, and of course, one bad headline really could ruin any type of recovery. If we turn around and break down below the hammer from the Monday session, that would be disastrous. I don’t think that happens, but it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind. As things stand right now, as long as there’s progress towards peace, gold probably remains somewhat bullish. Silver Continues to See Noisy Trading as Rates Drop – Silver gapped higher on Wednesday, as rates in the US started to drop. With the hope of peace talks, energy-driven inflation will be a possible concern. Technical Analysis – Silver gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Wednesday as reports are coming out that the United States and Iran are trying to work their way towards a ceasefire and talks. Ultimately, I think at this point in time you have to assume that the market is willing to jump higher on any hopes of a secession of hostilities in the Middle East as it will drive interest rates down around the world due to perhaps cooling inflation when it comes to energy. This is the hope that the markets are trying to price in at the moment. Middle East Peace and Energy Inflation – Looking at this chart, I think you could see the silver market try to reach the $80 level, although I’d be the first to warn you that silver, of course, is very sensitive to interest rates. At this point in time, if the interest rates peak back up, perhaps due to headlines or something to that effect, you can expect silver to fall apart. The 200-day EMA is support. We are back above the $70 level, which is a very strong victory, but the question now is, can we get past $80? I don’t know. I think that still remains to be seen, but in the short term, it certainly looks like we’ve got a little bit of upward momentum. Longer term I think it might end up being a different story. We’ll just have to pay attention to the bond market. As things stand right now, over the next day or two, it’s probably a bullish market.
On the day gold closed up $150.50 at $4549.80, and silver closed up $3.09 at $72.36.
On Thursday the price of gold tested support at $4360.00, falling out of bed. And failing to capitalize on yesterday’s jump to higher ground, it finished the day significantly in the red. So, on one hand we are again dealing with a bearish slide. On the other hand, traders seem somewhat comfortable with the current pricing range give or take a few hundred dollars. And with interest rates just hanging out, the FOMC considering its options, and a cooling trend perhaps now in place relative to the Middle East traders might expect worldwide tensions to be moving lower, decreasing safe haven demand. This is not a very optimistic view which suggests consolidation. Neils Christensen (Kitco) offers an alternate view in an interview with Nitesh Shad (Wisdom Tree) – “If you aren’t buying gold in this correction, you never will.” This thought in my mind suggests there is underlying strength in gold at current levels. Whether that strength reappears as interest rates fall or the metals simply need to develop fresh fireworks remains to be seen.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Move to Rates – Gold pulls back on Thursday again as the interest rate markets around the world see higher rates in multiple countries, most notably the United States. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours as interest rates in America continue to climb. As long as those rates climb, then we have a situation where gold, I think, struggles to find any real traction. Yes, I understand there’s the safety aspect of gold, but when you have non-yielding assets fighting yielding assets in the form of bonds that continue to yield more, this is what happens. As long as the war goes on there will be people out there pricing in the idea of higher rates for longer and I think it weighs upon gold. The Influence of the Bond Market – I know it’s counterintuitive to what you’ve always been told, but the bond markets run everything before it’s all said and done, so that’s why you should be watching the 10-year yield. The 10-year yield approaching 4.4% is a major problem for gold, and therefore, I think gold at best consolidates in this area. It is interesting that it could not break above the 4600 level, an area that has been such a brick wall. If we were to take that level out and continue to go higher, I could see this market heading towards the 50-day EMA, but quite frankly, I think we need to see yields in the United States drop pretty significantly. There are no signs of this happening at the moment. I’d say you’re probably looking at a lot of back-and-forth sideways action with a bit of an overhang sitting on top of it here. This is a market that will remain tough in this environment.
On the day gold closed down $174.30 at $4375.50, and silver closed down $4.69 at $67.67.
On Friday the price of gold challenged recent highs of $4560.00! For gold the $4600.00 level is a tough ceiling and a break above this level would be bullish. Silver was pulled along by the paper traders and faces typical overhead resistance around $70.00. These pricing patterns suggest that yesterday’s significant drop in both gold and silver prices created some bargain hunting, which is a plus for bullish sentiment. I think this market needs more time to flush out the white noise created over rising Middle East tension, but in the longer term it will prove bullish given interest rates eventually trend lower. This will likely take time, but patience should be rewarding.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look for Floor and Momentum – The gold market has bounced a bit early on Friday, as we are trying to figure out where we are going next. Rising interest rates, fear of worsening war headlines, and much more are causing issues. Technical Analysis – The gold market has bounced a bit during the early part of the trading session on Friday. But with that being said, it’s also worth noting that traders are going to have to look to this through the prism of a market that is moving on interest rates and fear, sometimes pro gold, sometimes negative for gold. But we are trying to maintain the 200-day EMA, and that, of course, is a major factor here. If we can rally from here, a break above the $4,600 level opens up the possibility of a much bigger move towards the 50-day EMA. I don’t really see that being easy, though, and I do think that the $4,600 level continues to be a bit of a ceiling. This area will remain very difficult to break above in this environment for any real length of time. Psychological Support and Resistance – If we were to break down below the 200-day EMA, then the market is more likely than not to try to test the $4,000 level. The $4,000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and it, of course, will be a number that gets a lot of headlines. I think you will see a lot of volatility based on interest rates in America as they are spiking, but at the same time we are going to see a lot of erratic moves based on the latest headlines and social media posts coming out about the war. So, I think we might be entering a bit of an area of consolidation with the $4,600 level being a very significant barrier that’s going to be difficult to break above. Silver Drops with Higher Rates on Friday – Silver continues to see a lot of noisy behavior on Friday, as traders continue to struggle with higher interest rates, and of course overall fear. The rising US dollar continues to cause issues as well. Technical Analysis – The silver market rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Friday but struggled at the $70.00 level again. The $70.00 level is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that a lot of people will be watching very closely. If we were to break above there cleanly, then I think it opens up some hope. The reality is that the interest rate situation in the United States continues to be very negative for silver as silver tends to move in the opposite direction of the US dollar. The strengthening of the US dollar is a byproduct of the higher rate. Inflation and Energy Supply Concerns – Rallies at this point, I think the $75 level will be targeted, and I also think it will be a little bit of a barrier. After that, we have the 50-day EMA potentially offering support. I think you still see this more or less as a sell on the rally type of situation at the first signs of exhaustion. The 200-day EMA sits near the $62.36 level, and then the $60 level. Silver just looks really bad right now, and as long as there is fear out there, the interest rates in America will continue to rise as people are betting on inflation picking up due to energy supply concerns. If that is going to be the game that we continue to play, silver will continue to drop from here. This is a market that looks very toxic at the moment.
On the day gold closed up $116.50 at $4492.00, and silver closed up $1.88 at $69.55.
Platinum closed up $32.30 at $1870.60, palladium closed up $49.60 at $1390.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,750.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,469.30 and then at $4,500.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,369.10 and then at $4,300.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $70.43 and then at $72.385. Next support is seen at $66.00 and then at $62.50.
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