Commentary for Friday, May 23, 2025 – Today gold closed up $71.30 at $3363.60 , and silver closed up $0.39 at $33.44 . Today gold was off to the races as Trump threatened allies, including the European Union and Apple with new tariffs if they don’t play ball, the dollar weakened, safe haven demand reappeared, traders squared accounts for a long Memorial Day weekend, and China is buying gold bullion with both hands. So, are rumors of $4000.00 gold and $100.00 silver in the short term an overstatement? Of course, this kind of hyper bullish rhetoric draws attention because there are plenty of reasons the metals will trend higher over the next decade. Being suspicious however of sensational claims in the short term makes more sense. Last Friday gold closed at $3182.00 / silver at $32.16. On the week gold was higher by $181.60, and silver was higher by $1.28.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold surged on the open as Moody’s downgraded US debt, the dollar weakened, and Trump claimed that he will raise the tariff ante if partners do not negotiate in good faith. Traders did sell this initial rally and gold closed off the highs of the day but still nicely in the green. Suggesting that safe haven demand is becoming more important. And I think traders this morning may be looking for even higher prices in gold if international tension escalates. Supporting this contention is the recent Goldman Sachs forecast of $4000.00 gold in 2026 even as Trump softens his tariff policy. This suggests that analysts may continue to worry about higher inflation. Perhaps the result of expected aggressive Trump spending policies and lower interest rates. So, there are enough crosswinds in this trade to keep everyone interested.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel and Ishaan Arora) – Gold prices rebound on dollar weakness, US downgrade – “Gold prices rose more than 1% on Monday, helped by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating amid lingering trade concerns. Spot gold gained 1.1% to $3,239.23 an ounce by 1236 GMT, reversing the previous session’s losses. U.S. gold futures gained 1.7% to $3,242.60. “The main supporting factor for gold today is the downgrade of American debt by Moody’s,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. “The dollar is also weakening across the board, with bond yields rising because government debt is being sold, so it’s a bit of a risk off tone in the market.” Moody’s cut the United States’ top sovereign credit rating by one notch on Friday, the last of the major ratings agencies to downgrade the country, citing concerns about its growing $36 trillion debt pile. The dollar slipped 0.8%, making greenback-priced gold cheaper for overseas buyers. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in television interviews on Sunday that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in “good faith”. Meanwhile, soft economic data out of China also weighed on risk sentiment in the wider financial markets. Gold, often used as a safe store of value in times of uncertainty, rose to an all-time high of $3,500.05 per ounce on April 22. “We maintain our gold price forecast of $3,700/oz by year-end and $4,000/oz by mid-2026, despite delayed Fed cuts and lower U.S. recession risk,” Goldman Sachs. Trump on Saturday said in a social media post that the Federal Reserve should cut rates “sooner, rather than later”. Spot silver was up 0.7% at $32.5 and palladium lost 0.3% to $957.74. Platinum gained 0.9% to $996.45. Demand for platinum jewelry in China, has started picking up, helping drive a deeper than previously expected global platinum deficit this year, the World Platinum Investment Council”.
On the day gold closed up $46.90 at $3228.90, and silver closed up $0.15 at $32.31.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved to daily highs after a slow start, moving to $3280.00 likely because of fresh safe haven demand. There are so many moving parts to this pricing puzzle that it is difficult to pinpoint just what turned the market to the bullish side this morning, but the technical picture is worth considering. The overhead resistance is $3350.00 with support around $3100.00. As of this writing we are looking at $3285.00 so we are pretty much in the middle of the trading range yet nicely in the green for the second day in a row. Because of the uncertainty over tariff fallout and the tension created as the EU and Britain impose Russian sanctions without Trump the safe haven aspect of this market benefits on the short term. This latest pop to the upside might also be a kind of insurance policy. Traders are not yet convinced that all parties dealing with tariff issues are acting in good faith, so these higher numbers are transitory.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold holds firm as investors await more details on US tariff policy – “Gold prices eked out gains on Tuesday, buoyed by a lower dollar, while investors cautiously turned their attention to further developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and U.S. tariff policy. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,236.94 an ounce as of 1102 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $3,239.40. The dollar index was down 0.2% against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. “Main focus of traders in the gold market today is on the optimism around the US-China trade and also on renewed hopes for progress towards peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades, said. “It appears that investors largely shrugged aside the recent downgrade of the US credit rating by Moody’s. The scenario appears to be bearish for gold due to a rise in risk appetite but the downside is capped by lingering uncertainty.” Moody’s cut the U.S. sovereign credit rating to “Aa1” from “Aaa” on Friday, denting risk appetite and lifting safe-have gold more than 1% in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations towards a ceasefire. U.S. Federal Reserve officials cautiously took on board the ramifications of the downgrade as well as the unsettled market conditions as they continue to navigate an uncertain economic environment. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak later in the day, potentially providing further insight into the economy and the central bank’s policy path. Markets are now pricing in at least 54 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the first one expected in October. “The gold price is building up to a super zone above $3,200, and as long as the price remains above this threshold, we can start to see further recoveries,” said Carlo Alberto De Casa, analyst at Swissquote. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $32.48 an ounce, platinum climbed 1.4% to $1,011.53, and palladium was up 0.4% at $978.33.”
On the day gold closed up $51.40 at $3280.30, and silver closed up $0.67 at $32.98.
On Wednesday the price of gold drifted higher, topping $3315.00 before investors sold this mild rally and gold tested support at $3295.00. But as traders tested support the dollar drifted lower, suggesting at first that there may be a lack of conviction above $3000.00. Still, the market did strongly reverse direction, closing on daily highs of $3309.30. And naysayers were again surprised as the price of gold continued higher in the aftermarket, eventually moving through $3320.00, so the technical picture is growing stronger. Overnight US intelligence claims that Israel is preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, a red flag which suggests there may be another attempt at all-time highs in the making ($3500.00). But it’s unclear if Isreal will turn more aggressive as the Iranian government (a terrorist state) claims their nuclear development is for peaceful purposes. And it is not negotiable. This standoff is dangerous because neither side trusts the other. Any sign of bad faith and investors may double down on safe haven demand.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold at highest in more than a week on soft dollar – “Gold prices rose to their highest in more than a week on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand as U.S. President Donald Trump failed to convince Republican holdouts to back his tax bill. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,298.19 an ounce, as of 1243 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.5% to $3,300.40. There’s been again a change in direction related to concern about the fiscal situation of the U.S. and the driver has been the Moody’s downgrade, and the market was attracted by the level of $3,300 yesterday,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. “This fiscal concern is weighing on the dollar, and the weaker dollar is supporting gold prices,” Staunovo added. The dollar slipped to a two-week low against its rivals, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of overseas currency. In a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill, Trump told Republicans in the House of Representatives not to press for further changes to the bill that would cut taxes and tighten eligibility for the Medicaid health program. Investors also monitored developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and any progress on trade deals ahead of the end of Trump’s 90-day tariff respites. Gold, traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during political and economic uncertainty, rose to an all-time high of $3,500.05 per ounce last month, boosted by central bank buying, tariff war fears and strong investment demand. Spot palladium was steady at $1,013.73 after hitting its highest level since February 4 earlier in the session. “Palladium has been starved of good news,” Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said, citing Honda’s shift towards hybrids rather than EVs as “a decent reason”. Palladium is a component of catalytic converters used in internal combustion engine or hybrid vehicles to reduce harmful emissions. Silver was up 0.1% at $33.10 an ounce, while platinum rose 0.4% to $1,057.57.”
On the day gold closed up $29.00 at $3309.30, and silver closed up $0.48 at $33.46.
On Thursday the price of gold drifted lower from the open today, bouncing to some degree off $3280.00 support in what looks like a rather sleepy trade as we approach the long three day weekend. A reminder that we always close on Memorial Day, as we salute our men and women in uniform and thank them for their service. This pricing action looks like gold yawned as Trump’s large financing package has passed and the sky is not falling. The theory here being that the naysayers claimed the US deficits would explode and spark further inflationary fear. That may or may not be true over the long term but for now the predicted bullish bang is missing in action and the price of gold hovers around $3300.00, not too hot and not too cold, with virtually no one interested in shorting this market. Still this market offers great potential for higher prices. Interest rates are relatively high and stiff overhead resistance is traditional in this higher trading range. I don’t see fresh record prices for gold unless we get a change in the status quo. But lower interest rates are in the cards this year, so higher prices in the metals make sense especially if the dollar weakens. Business across our trading desk this week has been quiet. The public is back to a “wait and see” investment strategy. But make no mistake about it their finger is on this bullish trigger. The US Mint will stop minting pennies! If you have a “penny jar” better figure a way to spend them as soon as possible. Good luck!
Reuters (Brijesh Patel and Ishaan Arora) – Gold prices ease from two-week high as dollar edges higher – “Gold slipped on Thursday after hitting a nearly two-week high earlier in the session, hurt by an uptick in the dollar, although worries over the U.S. government’s increasing debt burden and fiscal outlook kept prices above $3,300 level. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,303.82 an ounce, as of 1020 GMT, after hitting its highest level since May 9 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $3,304.10. “Selling coming in especially from those looking to book profits and a degree of recovery in the dollar seems to have taken some of the shine off gold,” Ross Norman, an independent analyst said. The dollar index edged up 0.2% against its rivals, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. “There are concerns about the way the U.S. is managing its debt and one would expect gold to remain relatively firm if the markets take these tax cuts in a negative way,” Norman said. Moody’s cut the United States’ top sovereign credit rating by one notch last week, citing concerns about its growing $36 trillion debt pile. U.S. Treasury Department’s $16 billion sale of 20-year bonds met soft demand from investors on Wednesday, weighing on risk sentiment among investors in the Wall Street. Market participants also worried that the U.S. government debt would swell by trillions of dollars if Congress passes President Donald Trump’s proposed tax-cut bill. Gold is often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty. The dollar index hovered near two-week low, making the bullion more attractive for other currency holders. Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill cleared a crucial hurdle on Thursday, as the House of Representatives voted roughly along party lines to begin a debate that should lead to a vote on passage later in the morning. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.7% to $33.14 an ounce, platinum dropped 0.7% to $1,068.97 and palladium lost 2% to $1,015.97.”
On the day gold closed down $17.00 at $3292.30, and silver closed down $0.41 at $33.05.
On Friday the price of gold turned hot today as paper traders pushed prices to daily highs at $3360.00. This is the result of a weaker dollar and Trump again beating the tariff drum. What keeps this trade pensive however is that traders have no good handle on what Trump may do with his tariff power from day to day. One day he is making deals if you play ball, the next day he is threatening allies if they do not toe the line. In the past few trading weeks, we have gone from “taking $3500.00 gold off the table” to renewed safe haven demand which sets in motion recent sensational price claims by the peanut gallery. Watch this market carefully but expect longer periods of time when volatility may increase dramatically. Patience will be rewarded.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi and Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold rises 2% on safe haven flows after Trump’s renewed tariff threats – “Gold prices rose 2% on Friday and were headed for their best week in six, as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and a weaker dollar. Spot gold was up 1.6% at $3,345.99 an ounce as of 0952 ET (1352 GMT). It rose as much as 2% earlier in the session. Bullion has risen 4.5% this week to reach a two-week high. “Trump has been on a tear the last 24 hours. Threating 50% tariffs on the EU as of June 1, biting Apple and hammering Harvard has stocks in a black mood, which is great for gold,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “Renewed tariff concerns on a low-liquidity day ahead of the long weekend can magnify moves.” Global stocks tumbled on Friday after Trump unleashed his latest unexpected trade bombshell by recommending 50% tariffs on European Union imports from June 1. Trump also said that Apple would pay a 25% tariff on iPhones that are sold in the United States but not made in the country. The dollar eased 0.6%, making greenback-priced gold cheaper for foreign currency holders. Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday passed a sweeping tax and spending bill that would enact much of Trump’s policy agenda and saddle the country with trillions of dollars more in debt. Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset increases in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Platinum added 0.3% to $1,078.15, reaching its highest level since May 2023 earlier in the session. “Above ground inventories (of platinum) have fallen to quite low levels and this is just triggering a physical tightness in the market,” said Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst. Spot silver was steady at $33.08 an ounce, while palladium slipped 2.4% to $990.93. Both the metals headed for weekly gains.”
On the day gold closed up $71.30 at $3363.60, and silver closed up $0.39 at $33.44.
On the day platinum up $9.20 at $1087.40, and palladium closed down $22.50 at $1001.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $3,123.30. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $3,346.80 and then at $3,375.00. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $3,285.50. July silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $31.78. First resistance is seen at $33.50 and then at $34.015. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $32.74.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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