Commentary for Friday, Aug 22, 2025 – Today gold closed up $37.50 at $3374.40, and silver closed up $0.97 at $39.00. Gold finished this week with a bang as traders and investors pushed prices to recent highs, reacting to Powell’s latest Jackson Hole comment which suggests he is preparing for an interest rate cut next month. This balancing act is complicated, so the Chief did give himself some wiggle room, but informed insiders claim the chances of a rate decrease are now 90%. And USB has joined this bullish party by raising its second quarter 2026 gold forecast to $3600.00. Last Friday gold closed at $3336.00 / silver at $37.89. On the week gold was higher by $38.40, and silver was higher by $1.14.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold was sleepy with a small downward drift, finishing only mildly in the red for the day. We are off to a quiet start this week even though fresh news from the Trump – Zelensky meeting and the Jackson Hole summit are key in judging the direction of gold in the short to medium term. Most insiders continue to see further consolidation around the current gold pricing range – but not much in the way of fireworks. Because many of the problems on the table seem intractable, at least in the shorter term. Still, interest rates may trend lower, at least to some degree between now and the end of the year, which will help support the price of gold.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold rises on softer yields, focus on Trump–Zelensky meeting and Jackson Hole summit – “Gold prices edged higher on Monday, buoyed by easing U.S. Treasury yields, while investors focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian and European leaders, and the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Spot gold was 0.1% higher at $3,383.20 per ounce at 09:56 a.m. ET (1355 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since August 1 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.2% to $3,388.80. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell from more than two-week highs, making non-yielding gold less attractive. The key event for investors on Monday is a White House meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, joined by European leaders, as Washington pushes for a swift peace deal to end Europe’s deadliest conflict in eight decades. This follows Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, where the two leaders agreed to pursue a peace deal without implementing a ceasefire. “There was not much reaction in gold to the Putin-Trump meeting. I think we’ll continue in this price range. Next inflection point is the Federal Reserve,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s July policy meeting are due on Wednesday, ahead of the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, scheduled for August 21–23. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak at the event. Markets will be watching Powell’s remarks on interest rates, a 25 basis point cut is already priced in, but there’s an outside chance of a 50 basis point reduction, which could drive gold prices higher, Meir said. Gold tends to perform strongly in environments with low interest rates and heightened uncertainty. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% at $38.07 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.5% to $1,328.40.”
On the day gold closed down $4.30 at $3331.70, and silver closed up $0.06 at $37.95.
On Tuesday the price of gold is hanging out, trading between $3344.00 and $3320.00 and finally closing in the red to the downside. Everyone is waiting for fresh news out of Jackson Hole. While there is plenty of analysis floating around, I don’t see much in the way of fireworks which might rekindle the gold or silver bulls. I still like both gold and silver bullion even at these elevated levels, but some settling would be good for the investors, giving the weak hands a chance to run for cover and perhaps include a bit of profit taking for the rest of us mortals.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Sits at the 50 Day EMA on Tuesday – “The gold market continues to see a bit of sideways action, as we are hanging about the crucial 50 Day EMA on Tuesday. With this, the markets look as if they are simply drifting along after the massive move higher that we had seen previously. Technical Analysis – Gold is sitting just above the crucial 50-day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. It has basically acted as a trend line all year and with that being the case, I think it makes sense that we continue to react to it. If we can break above the top of the inverted candlestick from the Monday session, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $3,500 level. If we were to break down below the 50 day EMA, then the market could open up the possibility of a drop to the $3,300 level. If we break down below there, then it’s likely that we will drop to the $3,200 level, which is an area that has been pretty important support previously. If we were to break down below there, then we have to reevaluate the whole thing. But with the whole thing, basically moving on central bank buying, central bank cutting of rates, and of course, a lot of uncertainty, then I think you have a situation where gold will eventually go higher, but this time of year does tend to be somewhat quiet, and volume does tend to drop and in fact has been dropping since the middle of May overall. So, with this, I think we just essentially drift higher, not necessarily explode higher, but eventually I expect to see the market break above the $3,500 level. Then we could go looking to the $3,800 level based on the $300 worth of range and the measured move from breaking out of it. You could even make an argument that we are in an ascending triangle, which also sends this market looking to the $3,800 level. I don’t expect to see it tomorrow, but I do think it happens given enough time. Silver Continues to See Support Underneath – The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy support just below current levels, as we are looking to find some momentum in this silver market to get it back to the $39 region. At this point, there is no reason to think of shorting. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially pulled back just a touch during the early hours on Tuesday only to show signs of strength yet again. All things being equal, this is a market that I do believe continues to respect the $37.50 level as massive support, especially now that the 50-day EMA is racing toward that level. It’s worth noting that the $37.50 level had previously been significant resistance before it became support, so there’s a lot of order flow in this area. All things being equal, I also recognize that this is a market that is still very bound with the $39 level above being significant resistance. Anything above there opens up the possibility of a move to the $40 level, although I don’t necessarily think it happens right away. I expect a lot of choppy back and forth trading, but I prefer to buy the dips more than anything else, and I certainly don’t want to short silver. In fact, it’s really not until we break down below the $35 level that I would even start to consider that the trend may be in serious trouble. Remember, this is a time of year where volume drops off, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we just meander sideways for a while as traders do everything they can to at least attempt to figure out what to do next. But also, I think we’re waiting on a lot of things such as the results of the Jackson Hole Symposium, whether the Federal Reserve is going to become aggressive in cutting its rates, and of course, indicators that could tell us about industrial demand for silver. So, at this point, I’m bullish, but somewhat muted in my expectations.”
On the day gold closed down $18.30 at $3313.40, and silver closed down $0.69 at $37.26.
On Wednesday the price of gold saw a nice jump to the upside challenging recent highs as speculation increased about Federal Reserve minutes and Chief Powell’s comments this Friday at the Jackson Hole summit. There is no front runner as to who will replace Powell, but his term is set to expire in May of 2026. In the meantime, if Powell’s comments turn dovish, you may see further gains in the price of gold. Yahoo Finance recently commented that “economists warn that the latest inflation data is more concerning than investors seem to believe.” If inflation continues to be a problem the resultant scare factor may provide fresh safe haven demand. In the meantime, Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole will be noted carefully for possible bullish or bearish clues.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold firms as dollar weakens, focus on Fed minutes and Jackson Hole – “Gold rose nearly 1% on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar eased, while market participants braced for the minutes of the U.S. central bank’s last policy meeting and upcoming Jackson Hole symposium for clues on future interest rate moves. Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,343.42 per ounce, as of 10:06 a.m. EDT (1406 GMT) after hitting its lowest level since August 1 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.9% to $3,387.10. The U.S. dollar eased, making dollar-priced-bullion more affordable for other currency holders. The Federal Reserve July meeting minutes, due at 2:00 p.m. EDT, will be released two days ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday. Last month’s decision by the Fed to hold interest rates unchanged prompted dissent from two central bankers, who wanted to lower rates to guard against further weakening of the job market. “Gold prices fell yesterday, so now traders are looking at it as an opportunity to get into gold ahead of the Fed minutes,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn. “If Powell is dovish, it’s bullish for gold, as it does not bear interest. It will need to break through $3,350 and then retest $3,400/oz if he’s dovish,”. Traders currently expect an 85% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday called on Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign, citing a call by the head of the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency urging the Department of Justice to probe Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1% to $37.73 per ounce, platinum gained 2% to $1,331.70 Palladium was little changed at $1,115.92 after hitting its lowest since July 9.”
On the day gold closed up $30.00 at $3343.40, and silver closed up $0.45 at $37.71.
On Thursday the price of gold was jittery, dipping to daily lows of $3325.00 but quickly recovered to finish the day mildly in the red as traders bought this promising weakness. Suggesting that while most are a bit nervous over the Jackson Hole gathering and what Chief Powell has in mind – traders already expect a dovish turn, the result being a decrease in interest rates. What the Fed does next is uncertain, but the bulls are betting that the FOMC will continue its lowering cycle next month. The thinking here is that the FOMC may lower rates by a small amount several times going through next year. Which may set the stage for record highs in gold. Some however believe that inflation will not cooperate. Powell will not lower rates, even with Trump’s encouragement. If so, gold may consolidate within a few hundred dollars on either side of the current pricing trend.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold holds steady as investors strap in for Jackson Hole gathering – “Gold prices were steady on Thursday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for signals on the central bank’s policy direction. Spot gold fell marginally at $3,344.66 per ounce, as of 9:43 a.m. ET (1343 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery were steady at $3,388.70. The U.S. dollar index was up 0.2%, making U.S. dollar-priced gold expensive for overseas buyers. Powell is expected to speak at the Jackson Hole conference about the economic outlook and the Fed’s policy stance. “If (Powell) signals a rate decrease in September, I don’t think much will happen because the market is already expecting that,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. “If he says we may decrease rates again in October, November or December, I think the dollar could weaken and gold could push higher,” Meir added. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest rate environment. The Fed has kept rates unchanged since December, but traders see a 79% chance of a quarter-point cut by September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting showed that Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller were the only officials pushing for a rate cut, dissenting from the decision to hold rates steady. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits jumped last week, marking the biggest increase in nearly three months. Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions’ research company BMI on Wednesday revised its 2025 gold price forecast upward by $150 to $3,250 per ounce. “Prices will remain elevated in the coming weeks as the market braces for a U.S. Fed rate cut in September. Even then, we believe the upside for gold following the rate cut will be limited with most of it already priced in,” BMI said in a note. Spot silver was up 0.4% at $38.05 per ounce, platinum fell 0.1% to $1,338.75 and palladium shed 1.3% to $1,100.06.”
On the day gold closed down $6.50 at $3336.90, and silver closed up $0.32 at $38.03.
On Friday the price of gold soared on rumors of a pending interest rate cut, so the bulls may be treated to the perfect storm for fresh record prices. But I would not get too excited at this point because we all have heard and acted upon such speculation more than once. And were disappointed when inflation remained stubborn and the Fed held interest rates firm. But today’s optimism makes sense, and the dollar has weakened considerably. To some degree this rate cut was expected and thus already reflected in the price of gold. And most bulls look for continued gains in the longer term because we continue to print fiat money in unprecedented amounts.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains as Powell’s comments fuel rate cut hopes – “Gold prices rebounded on Friday, buoyed by heightened expectations of a September rate cut following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s Jackson Hole symposium. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $3,362.53 per ounce by 10:26 a.m. EDT (1426 GMT), while U.S. gold futures were 0.8% lower at $3,408.20. The U.S. dollar was down 0.7%, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Powell said that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting the Fed’s policy stance but stopped short of committing to a rate cut. His remarks struck a delicate balance, acknowledging growing risks to the job market, while cautioning that inflationary pressures remain. “In his eighth and final Jackson Hole speech, Powell surprised a worried market, opening the express lanes to a September rate cut, which has boosted every single asset, including gold,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “It will be important to see if gold can break and hold above $3,400 in the coming days,” he added. Traders now see a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, up from 75% before the speech, CME’s FedWatch tool showed. Powell’s remarks put significant emphasis on upcoming jobs and inflation data that will be published before the Fed’s September 16-17 policy meeting. Gold typically performs well in a low interest rate environment, as it does not offer any yield and becomes more attractive relative to interest-bearing assets. Physical gold demand in key Asian hubs remained subdued this week as price volatility kept buyers at bay, while jewellers in India resumed purchases ahead of a key festival season. Spot silver gained 1.3% to $38.67 per ounce, platinum rose 0.5% to $1,359.75, and palladium firmed 1.4% $1,126.25.”
On the day gold closed up $37.50 at $3374.40, and silver closed up $0.97 at $39.00.
Platinum closed up $4.20 at $1355.40, and palladium closed up $18.00 at $1123.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. September silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The downside objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $38.34 and then at $38.875. Next support at $37.50 and then at this week’s low of $36.96.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.