Commentary for Friday, Oct 31, 2025 – Today gold closed down $19.10 at $3982.20, and silver closed down $0.44 at $47.99. The next FOMC move will define interest rate trajectory and the relative price of gold through the holidays. Not long ago traders were convinced that rates would be lowered in two quarter point stages before the end of this year. Now, the second piece to this puzzle may be put on hold as Chief Powell dallies over the question of whether inflation has sufficiently cooled? If he does not lower rates a second time the price of gold will be in “no man’s land”. Gold closing in the red today may be the first sign of approaching trouble. On the other hand, this entire pony show could be a tempest in a teapot. The Fed may have painted itself into an economic corner and so will be forced to lower interest rates to avoid recession. My bet given this developing dilemma is that prices for gold and silver will tread water, waiting for the second shoe to fall. Last Friday gold closed at $4118.40 / silver at $48.38. On the week gold was down $136.20, and silver was down $0.39.
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On Monday gold again disappointed the bulls as it trended lower, testing support at $3980.00. This continued weakness is helped along with news that the US and China are close to a major trade agreement. And today’s bearish flag pattern brings more bears out of the woods. These factors, coupled with less risk appetite as US stocks move to record highs, suggests that the price of gold will continue to settle. Technical guys see gold’s first support at $3900.00 and silver at $45.00. This week will likely see further selling of both gold and silver bullion, especially from those that are in serious profit positions having joined this bullish market earlier in the year. It will be interesting to see if this downward trend continues across our trading desk this week.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Pablo Sinha) – Gold slips below $4,000 per ounce as US-China trade progress cools safe-haven demand – Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce on Monday as signs of a thaw in U.S-China trade tensions reduced some of bullion’s safe-haven appeal, while market participants awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week. Spot gold was down 2.6% at $4,005.11 per ounce at 10:13 a.m. ET (1413 GMT), after briefly falling below the $4,000 per ounce mark earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 2.9% at $4,019.00. In addition to technical selling, gold is “seeing a further decline because of an unwinding of trade tensions that had taken prices from $3,800 to $4,400 over the course of the first three weeks of October,” said CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian. Gold, a traditional safe haven, climbed to a record high of $4,381.21/oz on October 20, but retreated 3.2% last week following hints of easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Negotiators from the U.S. and China on Sunday outlined the framework for a deal to pause steeper American tariffs and Chinese rare earths export controls. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are expected to meet on Thursday to further discuss a trade accord. Meanwhile, the market sees a 97% chance of a quarter basis point reduction at the Fed’ meeting on Wednesday. Gold, being a non-yielding asset, typically performs well in a low-interest rate environment. While most analysts and investors see further highs for the yellow metal, even bringing $5,000/oz into view, some are skeptical about the sustainability of its recent huge rise. Capital Economics analysts on Monday lowered their gold price forecast to $3,500/oz for end-2026. Spot silver fell 3.8% to $46.75 per ounce, platinum eased 1.1% to $1,588.86, and palladium 1.3% to $1,409.47.
On the day gold closed down $116.50 at $4001.90, and silver closed down $1.82 at $46.56.
On Tuesday as the price of gold tested support at $3880.00, bearish sentiment continued to attract all the attention. That’s the bad news. Traders bought this initial weakness and the resultant bounce to higher ground did steady the bulls to some degree, that is the good news. So, is this downward price trend a combination of profit taking and settlement considering that the price of gold is higher by 51% this year alone? Or are investors facing a series of political agreements which calm the fear factor and suggest that safe haven demand is heading south? It is also possible that the FOMC will lower interest rates by a quarter point tomorrow and another quarter point before the end of this year. Providing a bullish plus among these gathering storm clouds. Still, lower prices in gold and silver seem to be the theme for now with the technical picture suggesting gold support at $3900.00 and silver support at $45.00. Don’t be fooled into thinking that prices will continue lower – given recent weakness. The reality here is gold and silver prices are struggling but holding up. Better than that, both are building a reliable base. And I think the chances are good that we will end up with a more stable investment market next year.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Pablo Sinha) – US-China trade progress sends gold to three-week low – Gold slipped to a three-week low on Tuesday as hopes for progress in U.S.–China trade talks dimmed its safe-haven allure, while investors’ focus tipped over to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision this week. Spot gold was down 1.2% to $3,932.33 per ounce as of 9:31 a.m. EDT (1331 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since October 6. U.S. gold futures lost 1.8% to $3,946.40 per ounce. Gold, a traditional hedge during times of uncertainty and a non-yielding asset, has gained 51% this year, bolstered by ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as expected U.S. interest rate cuts. “The U.S.-China trade tensions have really diminished, with a possible trade deal later this week after a summit meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump. That’s bearish for the safe-haven metals,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Top Chinese and U.S. economic officials this weekend finalized the framework of a potential deal for President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to review at their meeting on Thursday. Hopes of easing trade tensions have stoked optimism across global markets, with U.S. stock index futures hovering near record highs after rallying in the past two sessions. Investors also await the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The safe-haven metal’s outlook, however, remains murky, with some analysts seeing continued highs, while others remain cautious. The London Bullion Market Association’s (LBMA) annual gathering predicted prices at $4,980 per ounce over the next 12 months, while both Citi and Capital Economics lowered their gold price forecasts on Monday. “The market has become overbought, which finally gave rise to this week’s correction,” Bank of America said in a note, adding that gold is approaching its bearish forecast of $3,800 per ounce in the fourth quarter. Spot silver fell 0.5% to $46.68 per ounce, after touching its lowest price since September 26, platinum slipped 1.1% to $1,575.43, and palladium lost 3% to $1,366.75.
On the day gold closed down $35.70 at $3966.20, and silver closed up $0.57 at $47.13.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved quickly to $4020.00, before settling to some degree as the FOMC lowered the interest rate by a quarter point, as expected. At the same time, the FOMC was a bit foggy on forward guidance, perhaps leaving its options open while waiting for fresh information. The price of gold closed only modestly higher on the day, which in my mind leaves traders and investors in a kind of “no man’s land” in the shorter term. Still, many will see this market as overbought. And I expect gold and silver to trend lower. Keep an eye on the 50 Day Moving Averages. For gold ($3800.00) and for silver ($45.00). A break below these numbers would be very bearish in my mind. If we continue to bounce around current trading ranges gold and silver will present a more stable and reliable market, a bullish plus in the longer term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Jumps Ahead of FOMC on Wednesday – Gold prices briefly dipped before rebounding above $4,000 ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders watching for Federal Reserve signals that could determine whether gold extends higher or resumes its decline. Technical Analysis – Gold markets initially gapped lower, only to turn around and show signs of life again as we have broken above the $4,000 level. That being said, it will be interesting to see how this plays out because we do have the FOMC interest rate decision on Wednesday, and that will have a major influence on what happens next. I do think that you have to look at gold through the prism of a market that is bouncing after a dangerous sell-off. The question is, does that sell-off mean that the trend is over? We’re not quite there yet. Basically, we have a big swing high and a big swing low, and now the question is: the next high, will it be lower than the one before it? I think there’s a good probability of that, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Jerome Will Set the Tone – A lot of this comes down to whether or not the Federal Reserve seems hawkish or dovish. Right now, it certainly looks like we are going to hang on to whatever the chairman of the Federal Reserve has to say during that press conference. If we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, then the market would probably drop down to the $3,600 level and then possibly even $3,500. Again, we’ll just have to wait and see. Clearing the $4,200 level would obviously be a very strong sign. I do think that we’re in the tail end of the massive move to the upside. So, although it’s really difficult to short this market, at least here, I think this is a scenario where you probably are going to have to be very nimble. Learn why this event could impact gold prices in our educational section. For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar. Silver Rallies Ahead of FOMC Announcement – Silver prices rose ahead of the FOMC meeting, likely on short covering, with traders eyeing the $50 resistance level. Market reaction will hinge on the Fed’s tone, with downside risks toward $42 or even $40 if the market turns bearish. Technical Analysis – Silver has rallied ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision and press conference during the day, showing a little bit of short covering. It’s possible that the market will start to consolidate in this area, or if Jerome Powell says something that really gets the market going much higher due to the fact that he may end up being dovish, we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. Keep in mind that silver isn’t quite gold, so we will have to pay close attention to how this unfolds. I think the $50 level is your short-term ceiling. If we can get above there, that’s obviously a very bullish sign. In that environment, silver would likely continue the overall uptrend. If we cannot break above that level, then the reality is that silver will probably start testing the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is near the $45.45 level, and breaking down below there opens up the possibility of a move down to the $42 level, followed by the $40 level. Keep in mind that the silver market is more of an industrial and electric-vehicle-driven market, less of a precious metal. Although it tends to move in the same general direction as gold, it will underperform gold under most circumstances. That wasn’t the case recently, but if we start to see a situation where markets return to normalcy and begin to sell off, then I believe silver will probably lead the charge lower. So, keep that in mind as you get involved in the silver market.
On the day gold closed up $17.50 at $3983.70, and silver closed up $0.59 at $47.72.
On Thursday the price of gold lost buzz on the open but finished the day in the green. The thinking here is that traders believe that while the FOMC cut interest rates a quarter point yesterday, a bullish plus, Chief Powell has gone out of his way to say that the second expected interest rate cut by the end of this year is still only being considered. In other words, he is dragging his feet, waiting to see if inflation warrants further reduction. This is a negative for the gold market because investors thought the second cut was a done deal. The supposedly good news about the US China trade deal is also problematic, pushing a bearish button because the most recent details are shaky. Which should not be surprising considering the last tariff dance between these two superpowers. Still, there are enough crosscurrents in gold’s current trajectory to slow the rise in pieces. This alone provides a cautionary red flag, which the technical guys have been talking about since last week. That being said, there are more than enough long term trends to support current pricing. And these should develop a stable base for record prices next year. The reason that my scenario sounds bullish is simple. Neither party is interested in balancing the US budget. So, the creation of fiat paper money and the resultant rise in inflation continues to be driven higher each year by political infighting and disregard for record deficits.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold gains as Fed trims rates, investors assess U.S.-China trade deal – Gold prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday, buoyed by a Federal Reserve interest rate cut as well as lingering uncertainty over the outcome of a trade deal between China and the U.S. Spot gold was up 1% at $3,970.36 per ounce as of 09:43 a.m. ET (1343 GMT), having risen nearly 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for December delivery were steady at $3,992.40 per ounce. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would reduce tariffs on China to 47% from 57% in exchange for Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases and rare earth exports and cracking down on illicit fentanyl trade. “You’ve seen a little bit of weakness (in gold)… but as the details (of the U.S.-China deal) came out and people realized it was a pretty hollow agreement, you’ve seen the markets back off of any optimism that the trade wars are over,” said CPM Group managing partner Jeffrey Christian. Equity markets fell on concerns that the truce may prove fleeting. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday, in line with market expectations, but signaled it may be the final reduction this year as the ongoing government shutdown threatens the availability of key economic data. Safe-haven gold becomes more attractive in a low-interest rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset. It also tends to thrive during periods of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The Wells Fargo Institute raised its 2026 year-end target for gold to a range of $4,500-$4,700/oz, up from $3,900-$4,100/oz earlier, citing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty. “We expect these question marks will continue to support private and official demand and drive higher prices,” analysts said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 1.7% to $48.34 per ounce, platinum gained 0.9% to $1,598.55 and palladium climbed 1% to $1,415.52.
On the day gold closed up $17.60 at $4001.30, and silver closed up $0.71 at $48.43.
On Friday gold moved mildly higher, touching $4030.00 in early trade but consolidating and finishing the day in the red. I figure the calming of tension between Trump and China is responsible for today’s lackluster finish. Investors should also note that if gold can manage to hold on to the $4000.00 mark, we have a bullish plus for the longer run. The Fed giveth (the first expected quarter point reduction in interest rates yesterday). And taketh away (an equivocation from Powell) that he would not necessarily lower rates a second time before the holidays. This has scrambled the theory, to some degree that lower interest rates will support the price of gold and set the stage for fresh records next year. But investor patience might yet prove rewarding.
Reuters (Noel John and Pablo Sinha) – Gold steady as traders assess further rate cuts, set for third monthly rise – Gold prices held steady above $4,000 an ounce on Friday as traders weighed uncertainty around another interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, but the metal remained poised for a third straight monthly gain. Spot gold was steady at $4,023.44 per ounce at 9:32 a.m. ET (1332 GMT), after falling to $3,988.37 earlier in the session. Prices were on track for a gain of 4% this month. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.5% at $4,035.30 per ounce. The dollar index held near a three-month high, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. “A lot of traders have been waiting on the sidelines to reallocate back into the gold market. I think they did that below the $4,000 mark,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday, but hawkish remarks from Chair Jerome Powell have caused traders to dial back bets on another cut in December. Markets are now pricing a 65% chance of an interest rate cut in December, down from over 90% earlier in the week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Gold loses its appeal when interest rates are higher, as it is a non-yielding asset. The metal has gained 53% this year, hitting a record high of $4,381.21 on October 20. Morgan Stanley on Friday said it continues to see upside for gold on interest rate cuts, ETF inflows, central bank purchases and ongoing economic uncertainty. The bank expects gold to average $4,300 in the first half of 2026. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would trim tariffs on China to 47% from 57% in exchange for Beijing cracking down on illicit fentanyl trade, resuming U.S. soybean purchases and keeping rare earths exports flowing. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.1% to $48.93 per ounce, platinum lost 1.7% to $1,583.80, while palladium gained 1.4% to $1,464.75.
On the day gold closed down $19.10 at $3982.20, and silver closed down $0.44 at $47.99.
Platinum closed down $38.50 at $1569.80, and palladium closed down $16.80 at $1444.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,800.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,059.90 and then at $4,100.00. First support is seen at $4,000.00 and then at $3,950.00. December silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at $49.00 and then at $49.225. Next support is seen at $48.00 and then at $47.50.
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