Commentary for March, 6, 2026 – Today gold closed up $80.80 at $5146.10, and silver closed up $2.13 at $83.82. Gold finished the week off a few hundred dollars which is surprising when you consider Israel’s claim it’s moving to the “next phase” of war with Iran (CNN). And European nations are being drawn into the conflict as Trump says he wants to be involved in selecting the next Iranian leader. This would amount to a potential upheaval in the geopolitical balance of the Middle East. One which should have sent the price of gold through the roof but did not. Yes, gold closed higher today but we are still comfortably below all-time highs of $5500.00 we saw in January of 2026. Which might suggest some of the current political commentary is at least exaggerated. Last Friday gold closed at $5230.50, and silver closed at $92.68. On the week gold was down $84.40, and silver was off $8.86.
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On Monday gold surged in the early trade, challenging $5420.00 on increasing safe haven demand as tension rises in the Middle East. With a joint US and Israel strike force hitting multiple targets within Iran, killing key personnel and destroying what allies believe is an attempt by Iran to hide its nuclear weapons. What is puzzling about this initial jump in prices is that traders sold this rally with both hands and gold then tested support around $5280.00. This suggests several strong and confusing cross winds – which include gold’s overhead resistance. And the notion that these record highs may be more resilient than most believe. I’m hoping that at this point, both gold and silver may be settling at these higher levels, waiting for the next shoe to fall relative to interest rates. The higher interest rates go (or the more time the Fed takes to lower rates) the more difficult it will be for the bulls to break out of this current trading range. If the FOMC, on the other hand, decides that lowering rates is its best option this year then gold and perhaps silver will have a shot at all-time highs. It is also prudent planning to keep in mind that investors will cash in, taking profits along this bumpy road. JP Morgan’s price for gold by year end is $6300.00, but I’m not so optimistic…a cautionary approach is better in my mind.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Strength as War Breaks Out – Gold jumps to kick off the trading week, as the Americans and Israelis have launched a military action against the Iranians. Concerns of an expanding war will be an underlying theme in this market. Technical Analysis – The gold market continues to see upward momentum as we see a lot of upward pressure anyways, and then you have to keep in mind that the war breaking out in Middle East obviously has a major influence on what people are expecting gold to do. So really, in a market that was already bullish, this shouldn’t be much of a surprise. That being said, what I do find a little bit surprising is that we’re not just ripping through the recent high. Market Levels and Strategies – It looks like we’ll probably challenge it somewhere near 5500.00. Whether or not we can stay above there remains to be seen, but I do think you’ve got a situation where short-term pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities more than anything else. I just don’t think this is a scenario where you are looking for the market to pull back and take advantage of that. You are looking for short-term pullbacks to give you an opportunity to find gold cheap. With that being said, the 5000.00 – level underneath, I think, is your floor, that’s assuming that we even get that far to the downside. I don’t even think we test that. More likely than not, somewhere around 5200.00 is where your short-term floor is. Gold was positive to begin with, the United States, Iran, Israel, and everybody else jumping into a conflict, of course, only gives it that much more momentum. I do think we’ll see a fresh new high, although I’m the first to admit I’m kind of surprised that we’re not even more bullish than we are at the moment. Silver Continues to See Buyers to Start Week – Silver has rallied a bit to start the week, as war breaks out in the Middle East. At this point, it was just the most recent reason for buyers to jump in and take advantage of the overall trend in general. Technical Analysis – Silver jumped to kick off the trading week, fell back to fill the gap and now is sitting pretty much where we had opened. It’s kind of an interesting candlestick because although it’s bullish, it’s not overwhelmingly so. This is a bit surprising to me, as I would have thought we would jump straight up into the air on the news. While the metals have done fairly well so far, they’ve been reasonably bullish, not out of control panic bullish. Maybe that tells you something. This is a really interesting move, or lack of move I suppose would be the way to put it. Market Levels and Support – Silver was already breaking out to the upside, so if you had shown me this chart and I didn’t know anything about war breaking out, I probably wouldn’t think much of it. It would just be a continuation of what’s been happening. Having said that, I think we do eventually try to find the $100.00 level. The $90.00 below should offer a significant amount of support. Anything below opens up the possibility of $87.00 or so and then $80.00 where the 50-day EMA currently hangs about and will attract interest. Long-term outlook, I think you’re probably going to try to get roughly $110.00 based on the previous measured move from consolidation. Buying on the dips probably remains the main strategy here in a market that has been in a strong trend for ages. At this point, I have no interest in trying to short this market.
On the day gold closed up $63.90 at $5294.40 , and silver closed down $4.40 at $88.28.
On Tuesday the price of gold fell out of bed, moving from $5350.00 through $5000.00 before traders bought this significant weakness around $5100.00. What caused gold to drop 4.66% this morning is a complex call. Is this a harbinger of weaker future prices? While such a sudden drop does rattle the gold and silver bullion trade, it may not be as bad as it looks. The primary driving forces are the war in Iran, now in its 6th day and rising investor uncertainty. Also keep in mind that the Dollar Index has moved a full point higher in the last few hours, because in times of trouble it also attracts safe haven demand. Perhaps this weakness makes some sense if you consider the latest from the World Gold Council – Central Bank gold demand has dropped by 82% in January. As the Middle East becomes more unstable who controls the Strait of Hormuz becomes more uncertain. So, what a mess investors are dealing with this morning as the price of gold remains unstable. You may have to deal with further weakness in gold and silver prices in the short term as the prospects of an interest rate cut fade, but rising anxiety in the Middle East and the rising confusion over tariffs should eventually underpin fresh safe haven demand.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold retreats on strong dollar, delayed rate-cut expectations – Gold prices drifted lower on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading prospects of an interest rate cut as inflation concerns intensified against the backdrop of a potentially prolonged Middle East conflict. Spot gold was down 5.6% at $5,029.59 an ounce by 1450 GMT. Prices hit an over four-week high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures lost 5.1% to $5,041.50. “The move lower in gold appears to be driven by a flight to liquidity – a flight to cash. We have a strong dollar and bond yields trading higher,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The U.S. dollar, a competing safe-haven asset, rose to an over one-month peak, making dollar‑priced bullion less affordable for holders of other currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose for a second consecutive session. “However, this dip in prices is likely to be short‑lived, and flight to safety flows driven by geopolitical risk should support higher gold and silver prices,” Haberkorn added. On the geopolitical front, the Iran conflict entered its fourth day as explosions rocked Tehran and Beirut, while a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official said on Monday the Strait of Hormuz had been closed. Crude oil benchmarks jumped over 8% on Tuesday in response. Damage to energy infrastructure and stalled tanker traffic through Hormuz have lifted the risk of sustained strength in oil, gas and refined products, stoking inflation fears and pushing back rate‑cut expectations, leaving gold with little support, said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. Despite being considered a hedge against inflation and turmoil, gold is typically preferred in a low‑rate environment, as it yields no interest. Spot gold has gained 17% so far this year, supported by global uncertainties, following a stellar 64% rise in 2025. Meanwhile, silver is up nearly 12%. Spot silver fell 11.2% to $79.42 an ounce after climbing to a more than four-week high on Monday. Elsewhere, platinum lost 12.6% to $2,013.65 and palladium shed 8% at $1,624.50.
On the day gold closed down $187.00 at $5107.40, and silver closed down $5.36 at $82.92.
On Wednesday the price of gold rose to session highs of $5200.00 but this rally was sold and gold on the day managed to finish only mildly in the green, a plus for bullish sentiment. Still, I can’t get too excited about today’s small bounce to the upside after yesterday’s $187.00 collapse in prices created by a sudden rush to liquidity. The lesson learned here is that volatility rules because the Middle East war offers no easy answers. I therefore would expect continued uncertainty, underpinned by the West’s determination to eliminate hidden nuclear weapons within Iran. Keep your eyes on the bigger picture which is likely higher prices in gold if the FOMC eventually lowers interest rates before year end. On the other hand, if the Fed is still worried about stubborn inflation, interest rates will remain steady, and this alone may tether the price of gold to within a few hundred dollar on both sides of the current trading range.
Reuters (Polina Devitt) – Gold bulls say broader rally is intact despite investors’ dash for cash – Gold’s appeal as it draws support from the widening conflict in the Middle East is expected to remain intact even if some investors have favored the dollar as their preferred safe haven, traders and analysts said. They added that a sharp fall in gold prices on Tuesday was likely to draw in buyers. A flight to safety lifted the dollar index by 0.5% on Tuesday, taking it to a more than three-month peak, as traders reassessed prospects for interest-rate cuts by global central banks – particularly in oil-importing countries that face a renewed surge in energy prices. Dollar Strength Pushes Gold Lower – old, typically viewed as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty and a long-term hedge against inflation, struggled under the weight of dollar strength. The dollar’s jump pushed spot gold to its lowest since February 20, down 4% at $5,136. “This is one of those days when, if you’ve got profits, you have just take the risk off the board wherever you can,” said Robert Gottlieb, former head of precious metals at Koch Supply and Trading. “But have the fundamentals changed? The answer is no. We still have persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty.” Traders have been made cautious following extreme volatility on January 29 when gold hit a record high of $5,594.82 then plunged over the next two sessions. “People learned on January 30 to be careful – to decide whether it’s a dip or a falling knife, and not get caught,” Gottlieb said. Increased Gold Price Forecast – BNP Paribas raised its average 2026 gold price forecast by 27% to $5,620 – with a peak above $6,250 likely by end-2026 – this week. Gold’s fall to around the $5,100 level will attract demand from Asia as safe-haven buying continues, a precious metals trader said. He asked not to be named as he was not authorized to speak to media. He added that the selloff on the gold market this week had been greater because of the amount of buying on Friday – ahead of the start on Saturday of the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran. Buying culminated when gold prices closed on Monday at $5,260, their highest level since January 30, and then profit-taking ensued. A selloff in government bonds and stocks, with the S&P 500 index last down 1.5%, added to the pressure on gold as sharp equity corrections often force investors to liquidate safe-haven holdings, including bullion, to release cash for deposits with brokers. Gold prices surged 64% last year, helped in part by investors’ cash inflows into bullion as they grew uneasy about the S&P 500’s 2025 strong gains. “Day-to-day, their performance is a coin toss – month on month too. But if you think this war, God forbid, is going to drag on, then gold’s long-term appeal as a safe haven is hard to beat,” Ash added. On a 12-month horizon, gold tends to rise when stocks have fallen from a year earlier. Over a five-year horizon since 1970, according to Ash’s calculations, gold has always been higher than five years before when the S&P 500 price index has declined over that period.
On the day gold closed up $12.80 at $5120.20, and silver closed down $0.29 at $82.63.
On Thursday the price of gold held steady on the open but quickly tested support around $5060.00 supporting a somewhat bearish view and pointing to lower prices soon from a technical standpoint. This dip is also encouraged by a dollar which seems happy at the upper end of its weekly trading range. At the same time, investors should wonder why gold is not producing any fireworks considering the attack by US and Israeli forces on Iran’s nuclear capabilities which began a week ago. And just as importantly why Iran’s promise of retaliation which further escalates geopolitical tension has also not produced fireworks. The stage is set for higher inflation when you consider the price of oil jumped 3% today, so we continue to look at a confused market, with underlying crosswinds, so investors should approach with caution.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold falls as rising yields, firm dollar eclipse safe‑haven demand – Gold prices reversed course on Thursday, erasing earlier gains as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a firmer dollar pressured prices, and concerns that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could drive up inflation grew. Spot gold fell 0.7% at $5,099.48 per ounce, after rising as much as $5,194.59 earlier. U.S. gold futures for April were down 0.5% at $5,108.70. “The market is looking at higher oil prices and the potential for inflation, while higher Treasury yields aren’t great for gold,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. The U.S. – Israeli campaign against Iran entered its sixth day on Thursday, with residents reporting heavier bombardment, while Tehran vowed to retaliate after a U.S. strike on a ship far from the main conflict zone. The escalation has kept energy‑supply worries elevated, supporting oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and dimming prospects for interest rate cuts. Gold is often viewed as a hedge against long‑term inflation but tends to perform better when interest rates fall. The metal, which hit a record $5,594.82 on January 29, briefly climbed above $5,400 on Monday as the start of the U.S.–Israeli air campaign drove safe‑haven demand, but later eased as the dollar attracted its own flight‑to‑safety flows. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.4%, making greenback‑priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, while U.S. 10‑year Treasury yields climbed to a three‑week high, raising the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding gold. However, gold still has supportive fundamentals, Melek said, as “we’re going to at some point start seeing evidence of significantly higher deficit in the U.S… and a massive amount of uncertainty.” U.S. data on Thursday showed initial jobless claims unchanged last week, while layoffs dropped sharply in February. The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday that economic activity rose slightly, prices continued to increase and employment levels were stable in recent weeks. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its March 18 policy meeting, with investors watching Friday’s U.S. February jobs report for further clues. Spot silver fell 1.2% to $82.41 per ounce. Platinum edged down 0.6% to $2,136.09, while palladium lost 2.4% to $1,639.96.
On the day gold closed down $54.90 at $5065.30, and silver closed down $0.94 at $81.69.
On Friday the price of gold tested support at $5060.00 and overhead resistance at $5160.00, the spread here being a mere $100.00. Which is not much in the way of fresh fireworks for bullish sentiment, at a time when the world is looking forward to a reordered Middle East with President Trump calling at least some of the shots. There is an old Arabic proverb that comes to mind – “change without progress” which might be handy to keep in mind as the world embraces the “new” Middle East. From a technical standpoint gold and silver remain steady as gold deals with rising oil fuels and Fed delays possible rate cuts. And everyone is watching for a possible “C” change in the dollar. The Middle East war certainly supports the price of gold, but I think investors remain cautious, a wise choice. If you are new to this bullion dance with inflation and the FOMC dragging their feet you might be offered lower prices in the short term. The volume numbers across our trading desk are quiet, which offers interesting insight.
On the day gold closed up $80.80 at $5146.10, and silver closed up $2.13 at $83.82.
Platinum closed up $12.40 at $2142.40, palladium closed up $11.50 at $1631.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $5,434.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $5,000.00. First resistance is seen at $5,200.00 and then at $5,250.00. First support is seen at $5,000.00 and then at $4,900.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $95.86. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $71.815. First resistance is seen at $85.00 and then at $87.50. Next support is seen at $80.00 and then at this week’s low of $78.06.
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