Commentary for Friday, Aug 15, 2025 – Today gold closed up $0.80 at $3336.00, and silver closed down $0.09 at $37.89. Gold finished almost unchanged today as traders and investors worry about new tariffs and what the Fed has in mind for interest rate policy as next week’s important FOMC meeting approaches. Keeping in mind that the price of gold at these levels is stable and supported by a weaker dollar. But overhead resistance at $3500.00 has been troubling for some time, and for now, the short term outcome might be a kind of grind to the downside. Last Friday gold closed at $3439.10 / silver at $38.42. On the week gold was lower by $103.10, and silver was down $0.53.
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On Monday the price of gold dropped like a rock, testing support at $3340.00 over tariff confusion concerning gold bars worldwide. Because of the severity of the drop traders are afraid of the “falling dominos” theory but I would not make too much of this latest sudden and unwelcomed surprise. Consider that gold’s all time high is $3500.00, and today’s close was $3353.00, reflecting a difference of $147.00. Keep in mind we are only 4.2% off all-time highs.
It is a bit too soon to guess when traders will buy this weakness, but a bit of patience here might prove rewarding to bargain hunters. This latest pricing pattern also supports my notion that selling large rallies makes sense because the Fed has not begun to lower interest rates. Still, this fiasco is a big disappointment to the bulls considering last Friday’s large jump to the upside.
Reuters (Ashtha Shivprasad) – Gold falls as markets await clarification on tariffs, inflation data – “Gold prices fell on Monday as investors awaited White House clarification regarding potential U.S. tariffs on imported gold bars as well as a U.S. inflation report that could provide an indication of the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 2.3% to $3,410.50 an ounce by 8:57 a.m. ET (1257 GMT). Prices hit a record high on Friday after reports that Washington may place the most widely traded gold bullion bars in the United States under country-specific import tariffs. Later on, Friday, an official told Reuters that the White House intends to issue an executive order in the near future “clarifying misinformation” about tariffs on gold bars and other specialty products. “The market initially rallied on uncertainty surrounding the tariffs but is now experiencing nervous liquidation as participants await further clarity from the White House,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Spot gold was down 1.2% at $3,356.30. On the data front, U.S. consumer price data is due out on Tuesday, followed by producer price data on Thursday. “Inflation data will be especially important following the weak jobs report. If this week’s inflation figures come in higher than expected, it could give the Fed a reason to pause the anticipated rate cut in September, which would be bearish for gold prices,” Wyckoff added. A recent weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report has increased traders’ bets for a Fed rate cut in September. Trade negotiations were also in the spotlight as the August 12 deadline set by President Donald Trump for a U.S.-China deal approached. Meanwhile, Trump will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. Gold tends to perform well during periods of uncertainty and in a low-interest rate environment. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.5% to $37.76, platinum dipped 1.1% at $1,316.69 and palladium lost 1.1% to $1,138.30.”
On the day gold closed down $86.00 at $3353.10, and silver closed down $0.76 at $37.66.
On Tuesday the price of gold in the very early trade was choppy but the pricing soon developed into a downward trend, so the bulls are still waiting for some sort of bargain hunting bounce after yesterday’s large $86.00 loss. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) numbers are a mixed bag relative to inflation but may suggest a possible rate cut soon. My bet is that the FOMC will not cut rates at their next meeting (September 16th and 17th) but keep their options open depending on the next round of inflation data. This in turn will keep the price of gold defensive but I don’t see a big downside in prices. Even today there was some mild buying interest around $3335.00, which is a bullish plus. The professional traders will likely continue to buy weakness and sell rallies while the price of gold and silver work their way through this “sideways” uncertainty.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold nudges higher after US inflation data – “Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday after U.S. inflation data sustained expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while attention turned to other key economic data due this week. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,348.24 an ounce at 9:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT). The dollar eased , making bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after gaining 0.3% in June. For the 12 months through July, the CPI advanced 2.7%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI rising 0.2% in July and increasing 2.8% year on year. “Inflation numbers appear mixed but are supportive of rate cuts,” said RJO Future market strategist Bob Haberkorn. “Traders remain cautious as we’re at a critical point and awaiting further economic indicators.” Traders maintained bets on September and December U.S. rate cuts after the CPI data. Lower interest rates increase the appeal of gold as it yields no interest. Other data due this week includes the U.S. producer price index, weekly jobless claims and retail sales. “The biggest negative factor for gold will be if (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell indicates that they’re not going to cut rates … The U.S.-China trade developments are on the back burner for now,” Haberkorn added. On the tariffs front, the United States and China have extended a tariffs truce for 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on each other’s goods. U.S. gold futures for December delivery dipped 0.2% to $3,397.50 an ounce. Prices dropped more than 2% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that he would not impose tariffs on imported bullion. A report that Washington had imposed tariffs on imports of 1kg bullion bars sent U.S. gold futures to record highs on Friday. Among other metals, spot silver gained 0.4% to $37.74 an ounce, platinum lost 0.2% to $1,324.47 and palladium dropped 0.6% to $1,128.75.”
On the day gold closed down $4.20 at $3348.90, and silver closed up $0.24 at $37.90.
On Wednesday the price of gold eventually closed higher ($3358.00) on a weaker dollar. And supporting this bullish move is the growing belief that the Fed will lower interest rates at its next meeting on September 16th and 17th. This potential September rate cut is powerful mojo and could set the stage for higher prices next year. Investors should be prepared for a push and shove market because as you can see this week, the bullish or bearish commitment is thin. And subject to change in a world of mounting debt and geopolitical uncertainty. It is interesting that across our trading desk this week we have seen large bullion buyers and sellers as the public takes sides.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold gains on weak dollar, investors ramp up Fed rate cut bets – “Gold rose on Wednesday, lifted by a weaker dollar and falling Treasury yields, as mild U.S. inflation data cemented expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and nudged up bets on additional easing later this year. Spot gold gained 0.5% to $3,362.92 per ounce by 9:47 a.m. ET (1347 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,412.20. The dollar index hit a more than two-week low, making bullion cheaper for overseas buyers, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged lower. “Gold is buoyant on heightened expectations of a September Fed rate cut, following benign CPI data and July’s weak non-farm payrolls,” said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com. Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a September Fed cut after mild July inflation data signaled limited pass-through from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs, following weak jobs data earlier this month, reinforcing bets on at least one more cut. Investors now await further U.S. indicators this week, including the producer price index, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales. On the geopolitical front, European and Ukrainian leaders were set to speak with Trump ahead of his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while Washington and Beijing extended their tariff truce by 90 days. “If gold were to take out recent resistance around $3,400, it would likely be driven more by geopolitical developments than by economic data,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com said. “While I maintain a bullish long-term outlook on gold, my view for the rest of this year is more cautious. Prices may continue to consolidate or see a mini correction in the coming months as equity markets rally aggressively.” Gold, a traditional refuge in times of economic or geopolitical strain, tends to benefit from low interest rates. Spot silver rose 1.6% to $38.48 per ounce; platinum was down 0.1% at $1,335.19 and palladium gained 0.1% to $1,129.89.”
On the day gold closed up $9.80 at $3358.70, and silver closed up $0.60 at $38.50.
On Thursday the price of gold initially moved higher ($3365.00) but reversed in direction and drifted lower testing support at $3330.00 as traders reacted to hotter than expected US inflation data. Gold finished the day in the red, which suggests that the Fed will not be able to lower interest rates at its upcoming FOMC meeting. At this point bullish sentiment for gold is fading and I expect lower prices in the short term. But it is worth noting that higher interest rates threaten economic activity. So, my bet is that Chief Powell will turn to the dovish side before the holiday season or risk economic slowdown. A dovish FOMC interest rate policy is good for both gold and silver in the longer term and may well set the stage for record prices in 2026.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold subdued as hot US data lifts dollar, yields; cools hopes for jumbo Fed cut – “Gold prices were subdued on Thursday as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and a drop in jobless claims lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, trimming the odds of a supersized September rate cut. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,352.65 per ounce as of 9:15 a.m. ET (1315 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.2% to $3,400.60. The dollar index gained 0.2% from an over two-week low, making bullion less attractive for non-U.S. buyers, while benchmark 10-year yields edged up from a one-week low. Stronger U.S. wholesale price data tempered bets on a larger, half-point cut next month. Traders are now leaning toward a quarter-point move with another in October, reinforcing comments from Fed’s Mary Daly that such a large cut is not needed. The Labor Department reported the producer price index rose 3.3% year-on-year in July, beating forecasts of 2.5%. Weekly jobless claims also came in lower than expected, at 224,000 versus 228,000 forecast. “Gold trades lower as the stronger than expected U.S. PPI print may lower rate cut hopes (expectations) as they feed into a higher Core PCE inflation print for July as well, likely keeping the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts,” said Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, Ole Hansen. “Overall, the print does not alter our bullish view on gold as the Fed eventually will have to choose between fighting inflation or supporting the economy.” Gold, a traditional refuge in times of economic or geopolitical strain, tends to benefit from low interest rates. Investors also kept an eye on geopolitical risks. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Russian President Vladimir Putin rejects a Ukraine peace proposal at their upcoming summit, hinting at a subsequent meeting with Ukraine’s leader. Elsewhere, spot silver lost 1% to $38.11 per ounce, platinum gained 1% to $1,352.60 and palladium rose 1.7% to $1,140.81.”
On the day gold closed down $23.50 at $3335.20, and silver closed down $0.52 at $37.98.
On Friday the price of gold drifted or perhaps stabilized is a better word. But the buzz and safe haven demand leaves something to be desired considering the world’s geopolitical mess and rising debt problems here and in other countries. Don’t get me wrong, over the long term everyone should be a big fan of gold bullion because there is no reasonable replacement in troubled times. Especially if you don’t completely trust US intentions. So, all things considered, most investors enjoy peace of mind with physical bullion in their hands. Keeping in mind that if this spinning economic top begins to wobble today’s price of gold may seem very cheap.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold heads for weekly loss, spotlight on Trump-Putin talks – “Gold prices inched up on Friday but were headed for a weekly loss after hot inflation data trimmed rate-cut bets, while the market focus shifted to upcoming talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,343.83 per ounce by 9:01 a.m. EDT (1301 GMT) but was down 1.6% for the week. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.2% at $3,390.80. The U.S. dollar eased, making dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices increased by the most in three years in July. Traders currently see a 92.6% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, compared to a fully priced 25-bps cut and a 5% chance of a larger 50-bps move before the data. Non-yielding gold prices fell following the data release, with spot gold closing 0.6% lower. “Although gold prices stabilized on Friday, more pain could be around the corner depending on how the summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska plays out,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. Trump and Putin are set to meet at a Cold War-era air force base in Alaska to discuss a ceasefire deal for Ukraine. Geopolitical uncertainty and low interest rates generally boost demand for gold. Analysts at ANZ said macroeconomic and geopolitical risks would intensify in the second half of this year, enhancing gold’s haven appeal. “Gold’s bullish outlook remains intact, supported by the prospect of rising tariffs, a slowing global economy, easing of U.S. monetary policy and persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar,” ANZ said. Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales increased solidly in July, though a softening labor market and higher goods prices could curb growth in consumer spending in the third quarter. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $37.85 per ounce and was down more than 1% so far for the week. Platinum lost 1% to $1,344.14, and palladium fell 2.3% to $1,119.37.”
On the day gold closed up $0.80 at $3336.00, and silver closed down $0.09 at $37.89.
Platinum closed down $16.00 at $1334.30, and palladium closed down $36.90 at $1107.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $3,423.80 and then at $3,450.00. First support is seen at $3,375.00 and then at $3,350.00. September silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $38.875 and then at $39.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $37.515 and then at $37.00.”
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