Commentary for Friday, Sept 12, 2025 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $12.50 at $3649.40, and silver closed up $0.69 at $42.39. This week has been great for bullish sentiment as gold and silver technically powered up. Geopolitical tension and political uncertainty here and in the Middle East are fueling safe haven demand. But for now, all eyes are on the FOMC because they hold all the cards as traders anticipate a quarter point rate cut next week. While gold closed only modestly higher today, bullion trading at the store this week saw large buyers and sellers. So, while the public is excited over the possibility of higher prices, some investors are taking profits, while watching interest rates. Last Friday gold closed at $3613.20 / silver at $41.07. On the week gold was up $36.20, and silver was up $1.32.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday gold affirmed Friday’s strong momentum by moving through $3630.00 and silver followed along making 14 year highs approaching $39.00 as traders anticipate the talked about interest rate cut next Wednesday. Insiders believe we will see three one quarter point rate cuts by the FOMC in place by the holiday season. Current speculation about lower interest rates was sparked by last Friday’s jobs report which suggests that non-farm payrolls are weakening. And the US unemployment rate is now at its highest point since 2021. Interest rates look like they are moving lower sooner than later, which should support even higher prices in gold and silver.
On the day gold closed up $24.90 at $3638.10, and silver closed up $0.36 at $41.43.
On Tuesday the price of gold pushed higher, reaching $3665.00 in early morning as traders bet on lower interest rates between now and the end of this year. This latest surge to the upside in gold has also been fueled by a weaker dollar reflected in the Dollar Index which has moved a full point lower since last Wednesday. Today’s closing was only slightly in the green, which might suggest gold prices are cooling a bit, but the smart money is betting on even higher prices in the metals. I would suggest some caution at this point because the paper trade is subject to a profit taking round given how fast gold and silver have risen in the short term. Some sort of settling will take the tension out of this trade and may lay the groundwork for higher prices next year. Also, of note is that Israel is ordering Palestinians living in the ruins of Gaza City to evacuate immediately because it intends to destroy this entire area as they continue to attack Hamas. This should further support physical bullion prices and safe haven demand.
Reuters – (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee and Sarah Qureshi) – Gold scales record peak as Fed rate-cut bets pressure dollar, yields – “Gold continued its record rally on Tuesday, as expectations of an imminent September U.S. interest rate cut weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields, while investors looked ahead to inflation data due this week. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $3,661.09 per ounce, as of 0933 a.m. ET (13:33 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,666.38 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $3,701.40. The dollar index fell to a near seven-week low against rivals, making gold more attractive to other currency holders, while benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields held five-month lows. “This rally is largely driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates, potentially as early as September,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Traders are currently widely pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, with some also betting on a larger 50-basis-point move. This comes after Friday’s data showed U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August. Lower interest rates pressure the dollar and bond yields, raising the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Investors now await U.S. producer price data on Wednesday and consumer price data on Thursday for further rate cut cues ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. “If the US economy does a little weaker, that essentially means that we could see more flows into non-standard asset classes like gold to hedge against that potential decline,” Melek adds. Bullion, which surpassed $3,600/oz on Monday, has notched multiple record highs this year, driven by a soft dollar, strong central bank buying, dovish monetary policy and heightened global uncertainty. “We’re very bullish even at $3,600 – we think the markets will continue to rally because we don’t see a shift that’s going to happen with respect to tariff policy, trade relations (or) geopolitics,” said John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management.”
On the day gold closed up $5.20 at $3643.30, and silver closed down $0.55 at $40.88.
On Wednesday the price of gold continued its mild upward bias, supported by the belief that lower interest rates are right around the corner. But gold closed almost unchanged on the day, which suggests that bullish sentiment is slowing down to some degree.
Keep in mind that gold has risen 38% this year so investors will at least be thinking about locking in profits. Another reason for bullish sentiment to cool. Still, across our trading desk there are many more buyers than sellers so the public believes, at least in the short term, that gold will continue to rise. In the longer term, the trend of lower interest rates will continue to support higher prices, especially if Trump’s attempted reshaping of FOMC membership is accomplished.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold near record highs as softer inflation data fuels Fed cut bets – “Gold hovered near all-time highs on Wednesday, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts at next week’s meeting, following softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,647.79 per ounce, as of 9:16 a.m. EDT (1316 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.2% at $3,687.40. U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, pulled down by a decline in the costs of services, Labor Department data showed. “Any further weakness in U.S. data should continue to support gold in the view that more than two rate cuts could be on the way before the year is out,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty and inflation, also tends to do well in low-interest rate environments. It has risen more than 38% this year. Markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting, with slim odds on a larger cut, CME’s FedWatch tool. Market confidence in easing was reinforced after last week’s soft nonfarm payrolls report, which pointed to cooling labor market conditions. The Labor Department also revised down job growth estimates through March, suggesting job growth was already slowing before U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs on imports. Meanwhile, a federal judge on Tuesday temporarily blocked Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, an early setback for the White House in a legal fight that threatens the central bank’s independence. Attention now turns to Thursday’s consumer price index reading, seen as pivotal in shaping the Fed’s policy stance. “The $3,750 mark is emerging as the next significant resistance, and a consolidation above it could see gold approach $3,900 by year-end,” Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.”
On the day gold closed up $0.30 at $3643.60, and silver closed up $0.25 at $41.13.
On Thursday the price of gold opened quietly, trading between $3615.00 and $3640.00. The sharp jump in jobless claims on what Reuters called “buyer fatigue” may suggest a less dramatic climb or perhaps even some consolidation around current pricing levels for gold. Traders have “priced in” a quarter point decrease in interest rates next Wednesday so few are expecting much in the way of fireworks. It’s a bullish plus that the price of gold has settled above $3500.00. But I believe further gains will have to wait until next year as profit taking is a consideration.
Reuters (Sherin Elzabeth Varghese) – Gold pares losses as labor market weakness bolsters Fed easing expectations – “Gold prices pared losses on Thursday, holding at near-record highs as soft U.S. jobs data outweighed concerns from firmer inflation data, with investors still betting on the Federal Reserve easing interest rates next week. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,632.99 per ounce, as of 9:03 a.m. EDT (1303 GMT). Bullion had hit a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $3,671.50. “Gold is being ‘saved’ by the sharp jump in weekly initial jobless claims, which hit a three-year high at 263,000 while core CPI remains elevated at 0.3% month-on-month,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Recent price movements point to some buyer fatigue, but gold’s outlook over the next few months remains constructive, limiting the scope for a significant pullback, Wong added. U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August, recording the largest annual increase in seven months, while weekly jobless claims also jumped sharply, highlighting softening labor market conditions. Data on Thursday showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly declined in August, reflecting weaker trade services margins and muted goods costs. Coupled with last week’s soft nonfarm payrolls, along with revisions that revealed 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March, the figures pointed to cooling underlying momentum in the economy and added weight to expectations for Fed easing. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s policy meeting next Wednesday, with a slim chance of a half-point cut, CME FedWatch data showed. The central bank paused its easing cycle in January as it weighed the inflationary impact of tariffs. The yellow metal has climbed 38% so far this year and is often seen as thriving in lower-rate settings, valued by investors as a hedge against inflation and broader uncertainty. Slowing growth, elevated inflation, geopolitical shifts and diversification away from U.S. assets and the dollar will continue to underpin investment demand and central bank buying, supporting gold, ANZ said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver was down 0.1% at $41.09 per ounce. Platinum fell 0.3% to $1,390.30 and palladium gained 0.8% to $1,182.50.”
On the day gold closed down $6.70 at $3636.90, and silver closed up $0.57 at $41.70.
On Friday the price of gold was choppy, trading between $3638.00 and $3655.00. At these prices gold traders have fully factored in at least a quarter point interest rate cut next week. But keep in mind that if the FOMC does not follow through and reduce rates the price of gold could slide from current levels. Still, the smart money will be counting on higher inflation in the longer term. Which should cement safe haven demand considering geopolitical uncertainty.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Sarah Qureshi) – Markets eye Fed rate cut as gold stays near all-time high – “Gold prices rose on Friday, holding close to record highs hit earlier this week, as signs of a weakening U.S. labor market reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will deliver its first rate cut of the year next week. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,649.54 per ounce, as of 09:19 a.m. EDT (1319 GMT), remaining close to Tuesday’s all-time high of $3,673.95. The metal has gained 1.8% so far this week and is poised for a fourth consecutive weekly advance. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up 0.4% at $3,688.10. “Weaker employment and spotty inflation… priced in with the Fed having to cut rates is pushing metals higher because there is the risk of longer-term inflation,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Recent data showing jobless claims surged last week, even as consumer prices posted their sharpest monthly increase in seven months in August, has boosted the shift in rate expectations. Investors, however, are prioritizing signs of labor market weakness over sticky inflation in shaping rate expectations. Fed fund futures fully price in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, though expectations for a larger 50-bps move have eased. “Given these tailwinds and following the recent step higher in exchange-traded fund flows (ETFs), we now look for gold to rise to $3,900/oz by mid next year,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The yellow metal has risen 39% so far this year and is often seen as thriving in lower-rate settings, valued by investors as a hedge against inflation and broader uncertainty. Meanwhile, China’s central bank on Friday sought public feedback on plans to simplify gold import and export rules by streamlining licensing. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 1.3% to $42.08 per ounce, at a 14-year high, platinum was up 1.4% at $1,397.61 and palladium gained 2.2% to $1,214.70. All three metals were set for weekly gains.”
On the day gold closed up $12.50 at $3649.40, and silver closed up $0.69 at $42.39.
Platinum closed up $11.90 at $1407.30, and palladium closed up $9.70 at $1229.30.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,750.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,550.00. First resistance is seen at $3,700.00 and then at this week’s contract high of $3,715.20. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,667.30 and then at $3,650.00. December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A bull flag or pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $45.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $40.00. First resistance is seen at $43.50 and then at $44.00. Next support is seen at $42.00 and then at this week’s low of $41.08.”
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