Commentary for Friday, May 16, 2025 – Today gold closed down $38.70 today at $3182.00, and silver closed down $0.32 at $32.16. Gold got off to a bad start on Monday of this week by closing down $115.40. And it was kept off balance by losing $58.90 on Wednesday and another $38.70 on Friday. Are we looking at a deteriorating market as the Trump tariff threat moves lower? This is the likely answer, but investors may receive a worthwhile reward with patience. Does it make sense that physical gold sellers are finished selling? Not really because gold remains above $3000.00. This week is a “weak hands” liquidation in my opinion. Which suggests you are closer to a bottom than you might expect. Of course, prices could drift lower but patience in this region may prove rewarding for bullion players in the longer term. Last Friday gold closed at $3335.40 / silver at $32.68. On the week gold was down $153.40, and silver was down $0.52. Yes, metals finished on the weak side but investors will soon have a much better understanding of long term support.
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On Monday the price of gold fell out of bed, down $115.40 as Trump and China agreed to make changes in tariff policies. The world took a deep breath as international tensions eased to some degree. What gold traders are looking for within this fresh bearish information is a better understanding of support at the higher end of its trading range. This drop was called a “plummet” but this looks more like a testing of support as international tariff policies reset. Whether gold will hold or continue lower is a tough call this early in the game. But it is not time to jump out the window for two important reasons. The first being higher inflation will likely be seen in the longer term because of Trump policies. The second is that the Middle East is unstable, and geopolitical tension is rising as Israeli rethinks its control of the Gaza strip. The best advice here might be to wait for further insight which might confirm a change in the “up or down” trend.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Pulls Back to Support After US/China Announcement – “The announcement between the US and China, and the lowering of tariffs had a lot of “risk on” behavior, and as a result, some of the “frightened money” jumped out of the gold market. This is a market that has plenty of other reasons to rally though. Technical Analysis – Gold markets gapped lower and then continued to fall early during the Monday session to reach towards the $3,200 level. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see the $3,200 level as potential support. And we have, in fact, bounced a bit from there. A lot of this, of course, will be based on the idea that the United States and China might be closer to a trade deal than everyone thought. And of course, the tariffs were cut drastically by both nations so that they could have some time to work things out. That being said, I don’t know how much this changes. For the short term, most certainly it does, but longer term, there are plenty of reasons for gold to continue going higher. And that’s why I’m probably going to jump in here. A gold trade at this point in time would have to anticipate a lot of choppiness to the upside, perhaps all the way to the $3,500 level. But I do think gold has a real shot at stabilizing in this region. Although we’ll have to watch and see, and if we do break down below the 50-day EMA, for example, then I think $3,000 becomes a very important level. There are plenty of geopolitical tensions out there to keep gold elevated, as well as concerns about sovereign debt issues, central banks around the world cutting rates, and a whole plethora of other things. So, while gold did get walloped right away, the reality is when you look at the longer-term chart, if we bounce them here, it really didn’t mean much. Silver Continues to See Sideways Chop – Silver continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as the markets try to discern what to think about the trade talks, the global economy, and overall risk appetite. Remember, silver is very volatile, and with that you need to be cautious with your position sizing. Technical Analysis – The silver market has seen a lot of back and forth over the last several weeks, but Monday was just more of the same. All things being equal, it looks like the $33 level above is a bit of a magnet for price as well as a little bit of a barrier. But I think if we can break above the $33 level, then we could see this market look towards the $34 level. The market has been consolidating between $34 and $32 at the bottom. And I think at this point, we’re just spinning our wheels trying to figure out where to go next. If you are a range bound trader, you probably love silver right now, as it’s been very reliable for you. However, if and when we do break out of this $2 range, and we will eventually, the market, at least by measured move standards, should go another $2 in whichever direction we break. I think, though, to the upside we probably will see a lot of trouble at the $35.50 level, which was a major sell-off point. On the downside I would look at the 200-day EMA near $31.36 and then again $31.00 as potential support. I don’t know if we get the $2 move, that would be the expected measured move, I think we have too much volatility here. Silver is highly sensitive to industrial demand, with everything going on right now, it’s a bit of a state of flux.”
On the day gold closed down $115.40 at $3220.00, and silver closed down $0.29 at $32.39.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved higher within the $3260.00 region but sold off as the morning trade tested support ($3225.00). So, we are seeing minor bargain hunting after yesterday’s very large drop in the price of gold. The latest Consumer Price Index suggests inflation is cooling, but not to a significant degree so it is unlikely the Fed will change its “wait and see” attitude relative to interest rates. This may be the early development of the Goldilocks scenario in which gold becomes not too hot and not too cold. This means traders and investors will just have to be satisfied with sideways or perhaps even lower gold pricing. A big change considering it was not long ago that the Trump tariff machine drove gold to all-time highs.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold rebounds on bargain-hunting, softer US inflation data – “Gold prices rose on Tuesday on bargain-hunting after a sharp loss in the previous day, while softer-than-expected inflation data from the U.S. also lent support. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,241.16 an ounce as of 0938 ET (13:38 GMT), after falling as low as $3,207.30 on Monday. U.S. gold futures were up 0.6% at $3,245.50. “We had a big correction in gold on Monday on the news that there is a deal made between the U.S. and China,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, said. “However, tariffs (on China) are still 30%, which is quite negative for the economy.” The U.S. and China on Monday said they would pause their tariffs for 90 days. Following the talks in Geneva over the weekend, the U.S. said it will cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145% while China said it would cut duties on U.S. imports to 10% from 125%. Bullion had shattered multiple record highs in 2025, owing to concerns over economic slowdown following U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, strong central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and increased flow into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Elsewhere, U.S. consumer price index increased 0.2% last month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.3%. “The report does lean slightly friendly for the precious metals markets because it’s not a problematic inflation report that would give the Federal Reserve pause on cutting interest rates,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.”
On the day gold closed up $20.30 at $3240.30, and silver closed up $0.48 at $32.87.
On Wednesday the price of gold tested support at $3180.00 and held, for now at least, as international tension cools and fresh profit taking reappears. But this bearish trend could easily be offset if interest rates move lower this year. Still there are good reasons for owning physical bullion gold and silver. The world remains unsettled, inflation is expected to move higher as US spending under Trump will move higher, perhaps dramatically so over the next few years.
And the world remains a dangerous place. Iran’s nuclear capability is a serious threat to the Middle East. And if de-escalation talks do not solve the problem Israel will get involved. So continued trouble in this entire region provides good reason for owning physical gold and silver. Both are a dependable ballast to international tension. Today you are looking at weakness, but safe haven demand will soften this downward drift. And it makes good sense to include bullion gold and silver as part of your plan in building a solid investment strategy over the next decade.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold falls as US-China trade truce dims safe-haven appeal – “Gold prices fell on Wednesday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions soothed fears of a potential global recession, boosting investors’ appetite for risk and weighing on bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,231.08 an ounce, as of 1144 GMT. Prices scaled a record high of $3,500.05 last month amid elevated trade war fears. U.S. gold futures eased 0.4% to $3,234.70. The U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs following discussions in Geneva over the weekend, with the U.S. planning to reduce the “de minimis” tariff for low-value shipments from China to 30%, according to a White House executive order and industry experts. “After the tariff truce announced over the weekend, we’ve seen stock markets surge higher, and at least in the short term, this has removed some of the safe haven focus that has helped propel gold to record highs in recent months,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “There’s a risk of further downside if we take out that $3,200 level, then we could fairly quickly test $3,165.” Global shares have rallied amid easing Sino-U.S. trade war concerns, while also taking support from relatively benign U.S. inflation data. Traders await U.S. producer price index data, due on Thursday, for cues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory after cooler-than-expected April consumer price index data fueled speculation of possible rate cuts later this year. The market is expecting 53 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, starting in September. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, it also tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. Spot silver was flat at $32.9 an ounce, platinum rose 0.7% to $994.78 while palladium was steady at $956.65.”
On the day gold closed down $58.90 at $3181.40, and silver closed down $0.64 at $32.23.
On Thursday the price of gold was off to a good start as traders bought yesterday’s weakness and closed nicely in the green for the day. Still the price of gold has been erratic enough this week to create a nervous trade. I believe $3500.00 gold is off the table for now so investors can look for a more defensive market. Some see gold moving as low as $3000.00 in the short term, but this may be too extreme. At the same time, you could see this lower trend reinforced by the summer months if the dollar continues to weaken. But I don’t see the price of gold falling apart anytime soon considering world politics and fresh safe haven demand. If you are a long time holder of bullion, consider taking a small profit, even Warren Buffet likes cash today. But keep your core position – Trump induced inflation will reappear sooner or later, in my opinion.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Bounces After Initial Sell Off – “The gold market initially sold off during the session on Thursday, as the market continued the action from the Wednesday session. The market looks as if we are ready to see it rally again, as the $3200 level looms large. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially fell during trading on Thursday but has turned around quite nicely to show signs of life again. By doing so, this is a market that I think is trying to find its floor. We basically swept below the $3200 level, wiped out all that liquidity and now people are looking to see whether or not the overall uptrend can continue. With that being said, I think you have a situation where traders are going to look at this as a longer term uptrend and potential value in a trend that has been obviously very strong. So, with that, if we can get a daily close above the $3,200 level, I suspect you may see more momentum come back into this market. You could even see the market try to get to the $3,500 level before it’s all said and done, which was the most recent swing high and of course is a large round, psychologically significant figure, so do pay attention to that. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the $3,100 level, then I think it opens up a move down to the $3,000 level, which has shown itself to be important more than once, and of course is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure also. Because of this, I believe this is a market that is a buy-only market still, and I’m just looking for either momentum to the upside or some type of value closer to $3,000 below, as it has been important to the market more than once.” Silver (XAG) Forecast: Powell’s Long-Rate Warning Lifts Outlook, Dollar Drops – Silver edged higher Thursday after early session losses, supported by technical buying and weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. Traders bought the dip near $32.19, a key intraday pivot, triggering a bounce that lifted prices off session lows. Gold also saw modest gains as the dollar weakened, amplifying demand across precious metals. At 14:58 GMT, XAG/USD is trading $32.50, up $0.12 or +0.36%. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.3% on the session, making dollar-denominated assets like silver and gold more attractive to foreign buyers. This helped fuel a short-covering rally in both metals, with gold benefitting slightly more due to broader safe-haven interest following the latest macroeconomic readings. Lower-than-expected wholesale inflation further pressured the dollar, increasing the appeal of non-yielding metals. The producer price index (PPI) declined 0.5% month-over-month in April, well below the 0.3% increase forecast by economists. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also surprised to the downside, falling 0.4%. This was the steepest drop in services prices since the dataset began in 2009, led by a 1.6% decline in trade services and a 6.1% drop in margins for vehicle and machinery wholesalers. Powell’s Comments Shift Rate Expectations, Metals React – Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks Thursday that tempered expectations for a return to ultra-low interest rates. While inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%, Powell warned that persistent supply shocks could keep long-term real rates higher. His comments reinforced the Fed’s reluctance to ease aggressively in the near term, even as markets continue to price in 50 basis points of rate cuts in October. Though Powell did not announce policy changes, traders interpreted his remarks as a signal that the rate environment will stay tighter than the pre-2020 norm. Gold, which tends to benefit from falling rates, initially lost ground but reversed higher as traders recalibrated expectations in light of the weak economic data. Technical Levels Key as Silver Eyes $32.80 Breakout – From a trading standpoint, silver’s intraday low bounce off $32.19 suggests short-term support is firming. Resistance now sits at the 50-day moving average of $32.80. A break above this level could trigger an accelerated move toward new highs. Conversely, failure to hold the current pivot risks a slide toward the 200-day moving average at $31.28. Given the current backdrop of a soft dollar and mixed economic signals, silver remains in a fragile but tradable range, with upside momentum building if rate-cut expectations stay intact.”
On the day gold closed up $39.30 at $3220.70, and silver closed up $0.25 at $32.48.
On Friday the price of gold again dipped into the red, testing support around $3150.00 as bullish momentum continued to cool even as Consumer Sentiment points to rising fears of inflation. Obviously, this week has not been good for the bulls as Trump promises a deal with the Saudis and Iran, taking the buzz out of safe haven demand. But this bearish trend is likely no big deal between now and the summer months. The key here is to watch for a notable bargain hunting bounce to the upside. A sure sign of a tiring bear and a great opportunity to buy physical product at cheaper prices for those longer term investors fearing renewed signs of inflation.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Cooling trade tensions set gold on track for worst week since November – “Gold prices dropped more than 2% on Friday and were set for their worst week since November, as increased risk appetite from the U.S.-China trade agreement weighed on the market. Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,185.87 an ounce as of 1007 ET (14:07 GMT) and was down 4.2% so far this week. Last month, prices had reached a record high of $3,500.05 amid escalated tariff tensions. U.S. gold futures was down 1.2% to $3,188.70. “The thawing of the U.S.-China trade war has revived risk appetite across the broader marketplace. This shift is prompting profit-taking among futures traders, particularly in the gold market, and has triggered a week-long wave of liquidation,” said Jim Wycoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Washington and Beijing earlier this week announced a 90-day pause, while they work out the details to end their tit-for-tat trade war. Later, the U.S. said that it was slashing “de minimis” fees on smaller shipments from China. As a result, Wall Street’s three main indexes opened higher on Friday, building on this week’s gains, after a long period of uncertainty. Bullion is considered a hedge against economic and geopolitical turmoil. It also tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Meanwhile, recent slowing inflation data, combined with a weaker-than-expected economic data, in the United States cemented bets of more Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Markets expect the U.S. central bank to implement two rate cuts, beginning in September. Spot silver lost 1.3% to $32.27 an ounce and fell over 1% for the week. “It seems to me that if gold resumed its bull market run, then silver has a more upside price potential too,” said Wycoff.”
On the day gold closed down $38.70 at $3182.00, and silver closed down $0.32 at $32.16.
On the day platinum was off $6.30 at $990.90, and palladium closed down $7.40 at $956.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls are fading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,300.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,100.00. First resistance is seen at $3,200.00 and then at $3,250.00. First support is seen at $3,150.00 and then at this week’s low of $3,123.30. July silver futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.48. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $31.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $32.865 and then at $33.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $31.78 and then at $31.50.”
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