Commentary for April 10, 2026 – Today gold closed down $30.30 at $4761.90, and silver closed up $0.04 at $76.32. Let’s consider another confusing week as traders sort out confusing crosscurrents which could send the price of gold and silver higher or lower without warning. Of course, this initial direction is almost wholly dependent on an extended peace in the Middle East, between Israel / US and Iran. Now Iran being an Islamic Republic founded on Shi’a Islamic principles the ultimate authority rests with the Supreme Leader of Iran. The United States has considered this country a sponsor of terrorism since 1984, so this is no small wrinkle in trying to cool Middle East tension. Investors should realize this tacked together cease fire has serious foundational cracks which makes the Middle East unstable. My bet is that gold will likely make fresh new highs before the end of this year despite Trump’s attempts at reconciliation. Last Friday gold closed at $4651.60, and silver closed at $72.74. On the week gold was higher by $110.30, and silver was higher by $3.58.
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On Monday the price of gold bounced off overhead resistance around $4700.00 following a weaker dollar but the rising uncertainty of the still developing Iran war and just what President Trump has in mind relative to a defiant Middle East should support the current trading range in the price of gold on the short term. On the other hand, the expected cooling of tension over what is happening relative to the Strait of Hormuz could easily drive the price of gold lower in the short term. What makes this situation so dangerous is that Iran and the US have never trusted each other, so the outcome is uncertain. But if I had to guess, I would bet on a de-escalation of tension in the area. And eventually a lessening of safe haven demand for bullion. But these crosswinds may take time, so patience will be necessary.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold extends gains on softer dollar, focus on Iran war – Gold rose for a fourth straight session on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar slipped and other risk assets rallied on tentative hopes that the conflict in the Middle East will de-escalate. Spot gold was up 2.5% at $4,784.22 per ounce by 1730 GMT, highest since March19. U.S. gold futures settled 2.9% higher at $4,813.10. The U.S. dollar dropped for a second consecutive day, making greenback-priced bullion more attractive for holders of other currencies. “Gold prices could move back above $5,000 per ounce if we’re on a path toward de-escalation, as rate-cut expectations could creep back in,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “The focus is on Iran and the Strait (of Hormuz) – how this conflict unfolds, and what the path forward looks like,” he added. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that Iran’s president asked for a ceasefire, but Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson called that assertion false and baseless. Trump is scheduled to address the nation at 0100 GMT on Thursday. Axios earlier reported that discussions about a ceasefire are taking place. “An end to the conflict could prove a double-edged sword (for gold). On one hand, a lasting peace agreement would remove the geopolitical safe-haven bid that supported prices in the run-up to the conflict,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. On the other hand, lower oil prices and easing inflation could revive expectations of 2026 Fed cuts, which could help prices, Sycamore added. Spot gold fell more than 11% in March as higher energy prices from the Iran war stoked inflation worries and led markets to scale back expectations of rate cuts. Bullion is typically seen as a safeguard during geopolitical turmoil and inflation, but high interest rates reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal. U.S. private payrolls increased steadily in March, the ADP’s national employment report showed. U.S. retail sales rose solidly in February, but surging gasoline prices could crimp spending in the months ahead. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $76.03, platinum gained 1.6% to $1,979.30 and palladium added 1.3% to $1,495.95.
On the day gold closed up $5.30 at $4656.80, and silver closed down $0.08 at $72.66.
On Tuesday the price of gold was not impressive, moving to session highs on the open ($4690.00) but traders sold this bullish rise and gold finished the day almost unchanged. And lacking the expected fireworks created by Trump’s latest apocalyptic rhetoric relative to an unstable Middle East. In my opinion Donald is the most bombastic President in history claiming that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if a deal with Iran isn’t reached. I don’t know what will happen in the short term, but traders are yawning, waiting to see who blinks first in this standoff. As far as the longer term is concerned make sure you have physical gold and silver bullion, hidden away, with as little paperwork as necessary, outside of normal banking channels.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Sitting on Top of Support Level – The gold market has been very noisy on Tuesday, as we continue to see the bond markets driving where metals are going. The gold market continues to see a lot of choppiness, but longer-term I am bullish. Technical Analysis – The gold market has been very noisy during the trading session on Tuesday, as traders continue to see this through the prism of the interest rate correlation. Interest rates in the United States, the 10-year yield especially, have been attracting a lot of attention, and as a result, it does make a certain amount of sense that gold continues to move inversely, as the gold market, of course, is a non-yielding asset, while paper bonds do yield. The $4,600 level continues to be very important, and this, of course, will be a major driver of where we go next. If yields can drop that should, at least in theory, be good for gold. The market dropping from here could signify that rates continue to rise but we’ll just have to wait and see. Interest Rate Correlation and Key Resistance Levels – Ultimately, I do think the 50-day EMA is a little bit of a barrier that we will have to watch. If we can break above there, then it could open up the possibility of a move to $5,000. This is all about the interest rate market right now and unfortunately, that’s about whatever the next tweet is or news release involving the war. In other words, expect more chaos. I’m fairly neutral on gold in the short term. Longer term, I remain bullish, but right now I’m fairly neutral. $4,600, of course, is important; I think it will continue to attract buyers as it becomes a bit of a “value play.” This market continues to be one that warrants caution. Silver Continues to Attempt a Range – The silver market continues to see a lot of noise, as interest rates continue to be a major driver of where silver can trade. However, the market is trying to find its range again. Technical Analysis – The silver market has shown itself to be a little bit noisy during the trading session here on Tuesday, as it looks like traders are trying to defend the $70 level as interest rates continue to jump all over the place. It does put a lot of random pressure on the markets, as we see a lot of “known-on effects.” This market continues to see a lot of volatility, but at this point, this is becoming the norm. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will try to reestablish the range that we had been in previously between $70 and $90. If that does in fact end up being the case, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we have to see some type of impulsive candle.
On the day gold closed up $0.30 at $4657.10, and silver closed down $0.83 at $71.83.
On Wednesday the price of gold surged on the opening, threatening $4840.00 but, again traders sold this rally and gold trended lower, finding support around $4750.00 and finishing the day nicely in the green. These strong gains, early in the trading day, for both gold and silver were spurred by the announcement of a US – Iran ceasefire, which pushed the dollar sharply lower. This latest and impressive talk about possible peace in the Middle East is, however, only backed by a two week ceasefire deal. What we have is a good faith beginning, a whole lot of loose ends, and promises by both sides to clean up a still very troubling Middle East. Investors may want to keep their powder dry, especially in the shorter term. The fact that gold finished significantly higher today suggests that all parties have adopted a cautious “wait and see” strategy.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold hits nearly three-week high after US-Iran ceasefire – Gold scaled nearly a three‑week peak on Wednesday, as the U.S. dollar and oil prices fell after Washington and Tehran agreed to a two‑week truce in their war, calming inflation worries. Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,779.19 per ounce, as of 9:59 a.m. EDT (1359 GMT). Earlier in the session, bullion rose more than 3% to its highest level since March 19. U.S. gold futures for June delivery gained 2.6% to $4,805.90. “The ceasefire is calming markets and easing pressure. It could help roll back some inflationary pressures and might open the door for Fed rate cuts, which is bullish for gold,” said Edward Meir, a Marex analyst. “But it’s still very tenuous. There are so many elements that need to be negotiated. They could easily unravel, and it could be a short-term recovery in all the markets. We’re still not out of the woods,” he added. The U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, suspending a six-week-old war that has killed thousands, spread across the Middle East and caused unprecedented disruption to the world’s energy supplies. Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel on the news. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for other currency holders. Spot gold has declined more than 9% since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, as higher energy prices stoked inflation concerns and prompted investors to scale back rate‑cut hopes. Elevated interest rates tend to pressure the non‑yielding metal despite it being an inflation hedge. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 17-18 meeting are due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT. The Fed held its policy interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range at that meeting. U.S. inflation indicators, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and Consumer Price Index, are due to be released later this week. Spot silver jumped 4.9% to $76.44 per ounce, platinum gained 4.9% to $2,054.10 and palladium added 9.1% to $1,603.13.
On the day gold closed up $92.40 at $4749.50, and silver closed up $3.39 at $75.22.
On Thursday the price of gold moved to session highs of $4770.00 as the possibility of a continued cease fire stokes bullish sentiment. But this trade is a double edged sword especially if Iran continues to threaten its neighbors and demand control over the Strait of Hormuz. I can’t imagine Trump giving Iran a cart blanche in this area but the price of gold this morning is not creating any fresh fireworks so there may be something in the works behind the scenes that will satisfy, at least for now, both the US and Iran. Neils Christensen (Kitco) – “The gold market remains unable to attract any new bullish momentum even as stagflationary threats rise in the U.S., with slower-than-expected economic growth and elevated inflation pressures.” It’s quiet across our trading desk at the store, the public remains a seller of silver but not gold bullion.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anjana Anill) – Gold prices firm, spotlight on US-Iran ceasefire and CPI data – Gold prices firmed on Thursday as a weaker U.S. dollar lent support, while investors assessed the durability of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran and awaited U.S. Consumer Price Index data. Spot gold was up 0.9% at $4,755.99 per ounce, at 9:16 a.m. ET (1316 GMT) after hitting a near three-week high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.1% to $4,781.80. The U.S. dollar index slipped. A softer dollar makes bullion more affordable for buyers using other currencies. “The weaker dollar has helped gold regain its footing, but there is caution in the market as participants try to interpret what the ceasefire means,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “The ceasefire headlines were very bullish for gold, but prices have pulled back from recent highs as cracks show,” he added. Israel bombed more targets in Lebanon, which Tehran says must be included in the ceasefire, while there was no sign Iran had lifted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. A breakdown of negotiations and a renewed flare-up in the war risk pushing up energy costs and inflation, which could force the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer. This could in turn reduce the appeal of non-yielding gold, despite it being a traditional inflation hedge. Spot gold has dropped nearly 10% since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran on February 28. Markets are also waiting for U.S. Consumer Price Index data for March, due to be released on Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – advanced 2.8% in the 12 months through February, in line with estimates, and likely rose further in March. Spot silver gained 0.5% to $74.46 per ounce, platinum added 0.8% to $2,046.54 and palladium edged 0.4% down to $1,548.23.
On the day gold closed up $42.70 at $4792.20, and silver closed up $1.06 at $76.28.
On Friday the price of gold and silver was subdued, which was to be expected considering the likely backdoor deals already in the making. You could be an odds player, figuring that because the price of gold is down 10% since the beginning of the US – Israeli war this might be a good place to buy weakness because inflation remains troublesome. But Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) throws up a red flag. FOMC minutes show a Fed worried about the impacts of Iran and viewing a rate hike as likely as a cut as risks become increasingly two-sided – The minutes from the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed members uncertain about the impacts of the Iran war on the U.S. economy, with many now seeing the balance of upside and downside risks as equal and the chances of a rate hike now the same as a cut, with only one member dissenting on the rate hold in favor of a quarter-point cut. In the staff review of the financial situation, they noted that the market-implied expected path of the federal funds rate “moved higher, largely reflecting a shift in the anticipated timing of easing toward the end of this year,” while the two-year nominal Treasury yield increased on balance, “primarily driven by higher inflation compensation, consistent with rising near-term inflation concerns tied to surging energy prices following developments in the Middle East.”
Investors should like gold and even silver bullion for the long term, but what about an educated guess as to what to expect in the short term? If pressed I bet that gold remains subdued as long as war tensions in the Middle East continues to cool. But keep a keen eye on overhead resistance at $5000.00 for gold and $80.00 for silver. A significant break above these levels may signal a break to the upside, setting up, at least the possibility of fresh record highs before year end.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold heads for weekly gain, US-Iran truce in focus – Gold prices inched up on Friday and headed for a weekly gain as the U.S. dollar weakened following the U.S.-Iran truce, though market participants continued to assess its durability and implications for interest rates. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,778.89 per ounce as of 9:29 a.m. ET (1329 GMT). It has gained over 2% so far this week. “Gold buyers are carefully reclaiming the narrative this week with higher lows every day helped by the tentative ceasefire. Expect a significant battle ahead of $5,000; a break back above could re-ignite the bull run,” independent metals trader Tai Wong said. The two-day-old ceasefire has halted a campaign of U.S. and Israeli air strikes on Iran, but it has yet to ease the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or quell a parallel conflict between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon. “As we’ve seen tensions in the Middle East de-escalate, there has been a little higher expectation of potentially seeing lower interest rates at some point, and the dollar came under pressure,” which has seen gold well supported, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The U.S. dollar was on track for a weekly drop, making greenback-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March as the war boosted oil prices and the pass-through from tariffs persisted. Persistently high inflation limits central banks’ ability to cut interest rates. While bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, its attractiveness fades in a high-rate environment due to the absence of yield. Elsewhere, gold demand in India picked up slightly this week ahead of a key festival, although elevated prices weighed on sentiment, while premiums in China narrowed. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.7% to $76.34 per ounce, platinum lost 2.5% to $2,050.99, and palladium fell 2.5% to $1,518.66. All three metals headed for weekly gains.
On the day gold closed down $30.30 at $4761.90, and silver closed up $0.04 at $76.32.
Platinum closed down $47.50 at $2049.10, palladium closed down $24.90 at $1528.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at $4,800.00 and then at this week’s high of $4,888.00. First support is seen at $4,750.00 and then at $4,700.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.21. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $77.80 and then at $80.00. Next support is seen at $72.50 and then at this week’s low of $69.78.
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