Commentary for Feb, 6, 2026 – Today gold closed at $4951.20 up $89.80, and silver closed $76.73 up $0.20. I think traders have to like gold’s finish today for two reasons. First, gold was hammered earlier in the week, the result of uncertainty as to how long the Fed can maintain its current interest rate policy. Second, gold has managed to survive a deteriorating technical picture which suggests lower prices are in the cards as interest rates eventually move lower. Silver on the other hand is not for the faint of heart. High volatility and wild swings in price may provide a kind of tether which caps prices as traders ponder whether its new status as a strategic metal has forever changed its pricing model. Still, I like owning some physical silver, but only for the very long term. Last Friday gold closed at $4900.42, and silver closed at $84.35. On the week gold was higher by $50.78, and silver was lower by $7.62.
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On Monday gold tested support at $4400.00 in the early trade and then bounced higher approaching $4800.00, so volatility remains intense. I have not changed my mind since last Friday’s massive drop in price relative to gold or silver. Even though today’s early action is a bullish plus. Even if you are committed look for these two events: (1) prices to settle and (2) the psychology of this trade to improve. This approach may be overly cautious, but it will be a winner in the long term because insiders understand that nothing has changed. Deficit spending rules and will over the long term support higher inflation, Which creates higher prices in metals. Patience here may prove rewarding and provide peace of mind in these very volatile times.
FXEmpire (Chritopher Lewis) Gold Plunges Only to Bounce – The gold market has been in the forefront of most traders’ minds lately, and with good cause. The Monday session was very volatile, and it looks like we are trying to find a floor here. The gold market has plunged rather significantly during the early hours here on Monday, breaking below the 50-day EMA but finding the $4,400 level supportive enough to turn things around quite drastically in the early part of the day. As things look now in the early part of the US session, it does look like we are trying to turn things around and show signs of life with the candlestick possibly forming a hammer. But really at this point in time, you have to be careful to just jump in without some type of follow-through momentum. This is a very good sign, but let’s be honest here: we have been as much as $1,200 off the highs in just a session and a half or so. And with that being the case, I think you have to be very cautious, but you also have to recognize that the uptrend is still very much intact. Market Sentiment and Strategy – Central banks around the world continue to buy gold and I do think that geopolitics will probably continue to make it somewhat supported in any way. So, with all of that, buying on the dips type of strategies probably continue to work, but I would also be very cautious about throwing in a huge position right away. This is going to be more about trying to build a position than anything else or letting other traders take on the risk of turning things around for the short term. I don’t necessarily want to short this market, but caution is the most important part of any long here. Silver Has a Wild Drop and Bounce Early on Monday – Silver has plunged again early on Monday, as we saw a bit of follow-through of the Friday action that caused so many headlines. Silver will continue to be a dangerous place to trade. Silver has plunged again in the early hours on Monday, breaking below the 50-day EMA and even threatening $70. That being said, we have bounced a bit, so now we need to see if the Americans will pick this up and drive it north. Quite frankly, a big candlestick like we saw on Friday almost never happens in and of its own vacuum. Typically, there is follow-through, and that is part of what we saw early in Asia. Psychological Support Levels – Really at this point in time, it does look like we could also go sideways, which would be a very bullish sign. A couple of days of sideways action might get value hunters back into this trade. If we break below the $70 level, I think silver is probably done for quite some time. The move has been ridiculous in both directions now, but quite frankly, I think you have a situation where you have to watch every large round, psychologically significant figure to see how the market behaves, meaning every $10. So far, the $70 level certainly looks to be the floor in the market. Whether or not that holds remains to be seen. To be honest with you, this is not a market I would be messing around in right now. While the reward could be rather large, the reality is the risk is equally so. This is a market that if it does go to the upside, it is probably going to be very slow and painful. There will be a lot of trauma done to trading accounts on Friday.
On the day gold closed down $277.92 at $4622.50, and silver closed down $7.57 at $76.78.
On Tuesday the price of gold and silver bounced higher as rising fear of another round of lower prices disappeared overnight suggesting that fresh new highs are in the making. This is really an amazing turnaround as gold prices pushed toward $5000.00 in early trade and silver prices quickly moved to $89.00. So, what is happening? Well, consider first that the massive losses seen last Friday and yesterday were prompted by President Trump’s naming of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This created a downward price washout that was helped by a stronger dollar and severe profit taking. But with inflation still a nagging problem investors returned to gold and silver bullion in droves to diversify away from stocks and equities. And this sudden change in attitude was reinforced by UBS and JP Morgan talking about $6300.00 gold by year end. To be fair, there are a few who see this increased volatility as dangerous and so are throwing up a red flag, suggesting some caution here is a good idea. But I see this as basically a continuation of an intact bullish market. Today the store was packed with a good mix of buyers and sellers, as bullish sentiment enjoys a shot in the arm. I say “Hoorah” (a celebratory or affirmative exclamation, famously used in the US military as a motivational battle cry)!
Reuters (Polina Devitt and Anmol Choubey) – Gold poised for new records as buyers return to the fray – Investment demand and central-bank buying are expected to propel gold to new records, with the metal’s retreat over the past two sessions already attracting bargain hunters, while silver will remain volatile, analysts said. Gold was heading for its biggest daily gain since 2008 on Tuesday, after a massive two-day sell-off triggered by President Donald Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, a stronger dollar and profit-taking. “Inflation remains well above target, debt levels are rising, and investors continue to view precious metals as a way to diversify away from equities, bonds and fiat currencies,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. UBS and JP Morgan expect gold to hit $6,200-$6,300 by year end, while Deutsche Bank sees bullion at $6,000 this year. Citi maintained its 2026 base-case forecast, expecting a first-quarter average at $5,000. Spot gold was up 5.4% at $4,915 per troy ounce by 1054 GMT. Gold and silver hit record highs of $5,594.8 and $121.6 respectively on January 29 before retreating. Gold’s 9.8% slump on Friday was the largest daily fall in 43 years, according to the LSEG data. Analysts see the drop as a healthy correction. “The physical market will be key in setting the floor, particularly beyond the Lunar New Year,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper, referring to top consumer China’s New Year holiday from mid-February. Investment demand, including from the retail sector, has become a crucial factor behind gold’s push higher as other sectors – jewelry demand and purchases from central banks – have stalled. “We expect prices to remain volatile, even though the conditions remain for further significant upside this year,” said Philip Newman, director at consultancy Metals Focus. Gold prices could exceed the $5,500 level, he added. Volatility has been more acute in silver with its slump from Thursday’s record high of $121.6 per ounce, due to the smaller size of the market. Its January rally was led by momentum trading and large inflows from retail investors. Silver was last up 9.3% at $86.8. With fears of U.S. tariffs fading after the mid-January critical minerals review and easing supply tightness in London, silver has lost a key driver of last year’s gains, analysts at Mitsubishi said. However, silver’s drop from records is positive for its industrial consumption prospects as it removed extreme pressure on solar producers’ margin, analysts said.
On the day gold closed up $281.20 at $4903.70, and silver closed up $6.26 at $83.04.
On Wednesday the pricing pattern in gold was a disappointment, especially for the momentum players considering yesterday’s big move to the upside. And traders may also be split over short term direction. Some, being cautiously optimistic, claiming gold prices are well supported at current levels. And some are cautiously pessimistic, as they sell the rallies and figure this market will continue to consolidate. Silver, on the other hand, remains a puzzle. And so, traders are standoffish because of current erratic and volatile pricing. How today’s investor figures in this picture will depend on their view of longer term inflation. Watch gold’s 50 Day Moving Average of $4500.00. A break below this number would suggest further weakness. Silver’s 50 Day Moving Average is $75.00 and a break below this number would signal trouble. If both gold and silver hold around these important averages it would suggest the metals are working off this excessive froth and of course this may set the stage for higher prices this year.
FXEmpire (Janes Hyerczyk) – Price Prediction Hinges on $5002.31 – $5143.89 – Traders Brace for Next Move – Gold Tests Key Retracement Zone – Reaction Will Determine Next Move – Spot gold is extending its weekly gains on Wednesday, testing a key retracement zone that could determine the near-term direction of the precious metal. CNBC is also reporting that analysts believe further gains will depend on currency movements and interest rate direction. At 12:52 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $5053.25, up $106.44 or +2.15%. Normal Retracement After Steep Sell-Off – But Is This the Bottom? What we are currently experiencing is a normal retracement following a steep sell-off from a record high. Typically, the first leg down from a major top is primarily long-liquidation. After establishing a bottom, a market will go on a huge run that retraces 50% to 61.8% of the first sell-off. That is where we are at now. Investors are facing a major decision: buy strength and proceed to test the all-time high, or sell the rally, looking for a better entry price. We’re not confident whether the buying earlier in the week was for the long-run or just a quick rally chasing cheap prices amid lingering volatility. Trader reaction to the retracement zone should give us some clues. It’s not that they’re hesitant about the long-term prospects, it’s just that the volatility has shaken investor confidence at this time. Wall Street Still Bullish – J.P. Morgan Sees $6300 by Year-End – J.P. Morgan appears to be ignoring the short-term policy and sticking with their long-term forecast of $6300 by the end of 2026. That’s about $700 higher than the current record high. They are citing forecasts calling for central-bank purchases of 800 tons this year, saying that the banks will continue to buy gold in an effort to shed their exposure to the U.S. Dollar. “Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” the brokerage said in a note on Monday. Deutsche Bank also sees a resumption of the rally with a forecast of $6000 in 2026. They see investor demand as the primary reason for the rally to continue. Citibank has toned down its previous forecast to $5000, while HSBC and ANZ see prices hovering near the recent lows at $4450 and $4400, respectively. Trend Remains Up – Watch the $5002.00 – $5144.00 Zone – Technically, the trend is up. A trade through this week’s low at $4402.38 will shift momentum to the downside with a change in trend likely beginning under the December 31 main bottom at $4274.02. Key support has been established near the 50-day moving average at $4402.38 and the retracement zone at $4744.34 to $4551.88. The short-term range is $5602.23 to $4402.38. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $5002.31 to $5143.89. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the near-term direction. A sustained move over $5143.89 will signal the presence of strong buyers. This could lead to a test of the record high at $5602.23 if the momentum continues to build. A sustained move under $5002.31 will indicate the return of sellers. This could lead to a retest of the retracement zone support and the moving average. Until we break out of the $5602.23 to $4402.38 trading range, look for a rangebound trade and elevated volatility. Silver (XAG) Forecast: Traders Reassess Upside Targets as Gold Dominates Price Action – Gold Outperforms Silver as Ratio Signals Shift in Sentiment – Like Spot Gold, Spot Silver plunged from its record high, but the drop in silver was much more dramatic. It was down over 40% from its top while gold lost about 21% from top to bottom. Before gold and silver hit their all-time highs on January 29, the Gold/Silver ratio was trading at 43.57. When gold and silver reached bottom on Monday, the ratio was at 62.39. Today, it’s trading at 55.75. At 13:48 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $90.86, up $5.53 or +6.48% – Silver Dropped Twice as Hard as Gold – What this tells us is that this week gold is outperforming silver. On November 21, the ratio was at 82.86 before silver speculators took over and drove the market from $48.64 to $121.67. Gold has central bank buying support, silver doesn’t. But speculators see silver as a cheaper alternative, which is one of the main reasons for its volatility. If you know anything about volatility, it works both ways and can be particularly devastating to overleveraged traders when a market moves against them. Both Metals Found Support at Key Levels – Silver and gold bottomed nearly the same way with both hitting their respective retracement zones and 50-day moving averages. Although silver reached a low at $71.31, the main targets were the retracement zone at $83.61 to $74.63 and the 50-day moving average target at $76.67. We consider this overshoot to be reasonable lost motion, given the volatility. Silver’s short-term range is $121.67 to $71.31, making its retracement zone at $96.49 to $102.43 the next upside target. Gold is currently testing its retracement zone, silver has about $6.00 to go before it hits the lower end of its retracement zone. So it’s easy to see that gold has regained leadership. Gold’s Leadership Could Cap Silver’s Rally – With gold already at its rebound target, it could begin to attract sellers. If it does begin to break down, then I don’t think silver will be able to complete its full retracement. This could lead to a quick retest of its support zone. My point is that the volatility has been sucked out of the silver market and gold has taken over leadership. Both are likely to continue to move in the same direction but not at the same pace. So if you have plans for silver to return to $121.67, you may have to change your plans. What Bank Forecasts Say About Silver’s Year-End Target – Using new bank forecasts for gold and the current gold/silver ratio at 55.75, we can estimate where silver may end up by year-end. With an end of the year target price for gold at $6300.00, JP Morgan may be predicting $112.96 silver. Deutsche Bank’s prediction of $5500 for gold forecasts $98.62 silver. HSBC puts gold at the end of 2026 at $4450.00, which pegs silver at $79.79 and ANZ sees gold at $4400.00, which makes $78.90 a possible target for silver.
On the day gold closed up $16.70 at $4920.40, and silver closed up $1.13 at $84.17.
On Thursday the price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium trended lower, so yesterday’s cooling trend remains in place, but the metals may not have yet bottomed out, as interest rate direction is still uncertain. The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, as inflation remains stubborn. The steady interest rates in Europe will likely follow in the US, even under the guidance of Trump’s choice for new Fed Chief Kevin Warsh. Some believe the Warsh appointment was the trigger which led to recent metals liquidation. Perhaps this is true, but I think the new Chief offers less controversy and so creates less tension worldwide. Which dims safe haven demand. The are 3 other factors which tether the metals to current ranges. First, the dollar climbed to a two week high. Second, the overhead resistance at $5000.00 remains a challenge. And third, the tumble in the price of silver has pressured investors into another profit taking cycle. And whether a fear of inflation, steady interest rates and less safe haven demand continues is difficult to say. But my bet is that rates will continue to trend lower this year, which may encourage higher metal prices over time.
Reuters (Naveen Thukral and Eric Onstad) – Silver tumbles, oil drops in commodity sell-off – Commodities prices slid on Thursday, led by silver, part of a broad market sell-off as investors reversed an earlier rush for hard assets after global geopolitical tensions eased. Silver tumbled as much as 15% and oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks, and after a positive telephone call between the leaders of the U.S. and China. Commodities joined other financial markets such as shares in lurching lower as some of the speculative heat came out of markets that had been propelled to record peaks. “Sentiment (has) turned soggy across most asset classes…, with losses feeding into one another and creating a self-reinforcing feedback loop amid thin market liquidity,” said Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC. Adding pressure to commodities was a stronger dollar, which climbed to a two-week high. A firmer dollar index makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Precious Metals Retreat From Records – Spot gold retreated from a near one-week high and spot silver plummeted. Last week, gold climbed to a record $5,594.82 an ounce and silver to an all-time high of $121.64. “We saw extreme volatility in precious metals and other commodities this week, and what we are witnessing today are some aftershocks,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at broker IG. Oil prices , fell, but held close to multi-month highs as investors kept a close eye on the progress of Iran talks, worried that a military conflict could disrupt supply from the key Middle East producing region. Copper moved further from record highs hit last week on concern over demand and rising stocks in warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange. The metal widely used in power and construction had rebounded from a two-session slump, supported by China’s plan to expand its copper reserves. Soybeans bucked the trend, climbing to a two-month high, boosted by comments by President Trump that China is considering buying cargoes from the U.S. Iron fell 2%, weighed down by high inventories .
On the day gold closed Down $59.00 at $4861.40, and silver closed down $7.64 at $76.53.
On Friday, I believe that despite a bumpy week the case for higher gold and silver is intact. Especially when you consider the bigger picture which includes lower interest rates at some point in time. I can say volume numbers in our store trade have slowed to some degree, but this looks more like “settling” than any kind of trend reversal. And in my opinion, this will instill more confidence in the notion that higher prices in gold and silver are inevitable. If there is a lesson to be learned here it is that decades of fiat money production cannot be reversed through a simple change in Treasury policy. The real reason inflation remains “sticky” is that neither the Democrats nor Republicans will admit that the “free lunch” policy is a myth. I have been saying for years that real “spending change” is nearly impossible. Once either party receives a monetary advantage, rightly or wrongly the working citizens of this country are stuck with the bill.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Catches a Bid on Lower Yields While Dollar Pressure Stalls Rally – Gold Catches a Bid Despite Weekly Losses – Spot Gold is catching a bid on Friday, rebounding after getting hammered earlier in the week. The intraday bounce is being helped by a slight pullback in Treasury yields and some relief in the risk-off pressure that’s been crushing everything in sight. At 12:20 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4886.74, up $106.07 or +2.22%. Technical Picture: Trend Still Intact – Technically, unlike Spot Silver (XAGUSD) the trend is still up on the daily chart. A trade through $4402.38 will change the trend to down. Taking out $5091.93 will shift momentum to the upside. The market is also trading between a retracement zone at $4744.34 to $4541.88 and above the 50-day moving average at $4544.33. Lower Yields Provide Short-Term Relief – Treasury yields edged lower on Friday, with the 10-year yield down to 4.204% and the 30-year at 4.856%. When yields drop, even slightly, it takes some pressure off gold since the metal doesn’t pay interest. Lower yields make gold relatively more attractive compared to bonds. Stronger Dollar Caps Weekly Performance – But here’s the thing—gold is still on track for its second straight weekly loss. The culprit? A stronger U.S. dollar. The dollar index is sitting near a two-week high at 97.961 and is headed for a 1% weekly gain, its strongest performance since mid-November. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, which caps the upside and keeps a lid on any sustained rally. Why the Disconnect Between Daily Gain and Weekly Loss? So why the disconnect between Friday’s gain and the weekly loss? Simple. The dollar’s weekly surge has been the dominant force, outweighing any short-term relief from lower yields. The tech stock selloff and AI spending fears have driven investors into the dollar as a safe haven, which has been bad news for gold all week long. Friday’s bounce looks more like a dead cat bounce than a reversal. Gold is “kind of holding its own,” as one analyst put it, but it’s not convincing anyone that the worst is over. Until the dollar weakens or yields drop more meaningfully, gold is going to struggle to find its footing. The longer gold trades inside the two retracement zones, the greater the volatility once it breaks out. Holding above the 50-day moving average at $4544.33 is giving the market a slight upside bias and if it continues to build a support base above it, the greater the chance for a strong rebound rally. Silver Continues to See Wild Swing – The silver market plunged well below $70 on Friday, but turned around rather abruptly, as we continue to see a lot of noise in this market. Technical Analysis – The silver market plunged well below the $70 level only to turn around and show signs of strength as we are trying to form some type of hammer. This is a market that I think, over time, will have to find some type of supportive consolidation range. If we break down below the lows of the day, I think that is a very negative sign. The move below 70 really would have had me bearish, but I recognize that the turnaround on the same day obviously negates that. I am going to be watching the silver market for daily closes to get a read on where we may or may not be going, because you could make an argument for some type of support here based on the entirety of the move as we bounce from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Volatility and Market Pressure – Ultimately, I think this is a market that if we continue to see this type of volatility, it will inevitably lead itself to lower pricing just simply because this type of volatility drives up margins, spooks investors, and a whole plethora of other things. $90 is your ceiling at the moment; $65 or so is your floor. With this type of potential move in either direction, position sizing is crucial. If you are bullish, that is fine, but I recognize that the upside is somewhat limited. At this point, we need to see a few daily candlesticks of just sideways action. We did have that, only to plunge in the end of that mess. So we will see. I still think there is a lot of pressure on this market.
On the day gold closed at $4951.20 up $89.80, and silver closed $76.73 up $0.20.
Platinum closed at $2102.87 up $41.27, palladium closed $1732.70 up $43.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures price action last week formed a big and bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is one chart clue that a market top is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $4,423.20. First resistance is seen at $5,000.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $5,045.00. First support is seen at $4,800.00 and then at the overnight low of $4,670.00. March silver futures see a bearish pennant pattern playing out on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $92.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at $75.00 and then at $77.50. Next support is seen at $70.00 and then at $65.00.
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