Commentary for Friday, Dec 5, 2025 – Today gold closed up $1.10 at $4212.90, and silver closed up $1.57 at $58.42. Today the price of gold pushed to daily highs ($4260.00) in early trading, but this bullish rally was then heavily sold and gold closed the day almost unchanged. This is the kind of tough overhead resistance we have seen before and may suggest less momentum and a cooling trend. The reasoning being is that the jury is still out over what the FOMC will do with short to medium term interest rates. Still, there is strong talk about a second rate cut at its next meeting, which will take place December 9th and 10th. If the bulls win the argument this would be a strong sign that gold will be heading higher. We would likely see higher prices in the short term and fresh records in 2026. Last Friday gold closed at $4165.20 / silver at $52.92. On the week gold was up $47.70, and silver was higher by $5.50.
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On Monday the price of gold again tested overhead resistance twice at $4260.00 before settling mildly in the green on the close. Still, we have moved to 6 week highs as the dollar weakened, and most insiders see even higher prices in gold if we see an additional rate cut in December. I don’t know what to say about silver, it’s just plan crazy at these levels. But the devoted bulls believe it has potential for even higher prices. So, gold and silver, in my opinion, remain a bullish market which may continue higher, especially if interest rates continue to trend lower.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold touches six-week high as rate cut bets weigh on dollar; silver hits record high – Gold prices rose to a six-week high on Monday, supported by growing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a sliding dollar, while silver struck a record high ahead of key U.S. economic data. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,244.29 per ounce, as of 09:21 AM ET (1421 GMT), its highest since October 21. U.S. gold futures for February delivery gained 0.6% to $4,278.40. Silver was up 1.8% to $57.39 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $57.86 earlier. The U.S. dollar slipped to a two-week low, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies. “The underlying environment of expectations of further rate cuts, along with inflationary pressure still above the Fed target… is still the underlying support in gold and silver,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Traders have increased December rate-cut bets to an 87% probability, following softer U.S. economic data and dovish remarks from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Lower interest rates tend to favor non-yielding assets such as gold. Investors are also focusing on key U.S. data this week, including November ADP employment figures on Wednesday and the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, due Friday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks later on Monday are also expected to offer further policy clues. Meanwhile, the expectation that the next Fed Chair is going to be more dovish than previous ones is also supporting gold and silver, Meger said. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Sunday that, if chosen, he would be happy to serve as the next Fed chairman. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a new chair could be named before Christmas. “We still view gold and silver in a strong sideways to higher uptrend,” Meger said. Among other precious metals, platinum rose 0.3% to $1,677.28, while palladium fell 0.5% to $1,443.75.
On the day gold closed up $21.00 at $4239.30 , and silver closed up $1.97 at $58.42.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved between $4180.00 and $4225.00 but overhead resistance at the high end of this range should draw attention. Today featured a round of profit taking and gold finished the day solidly in the red. Whether this short term move turns into further losses between the end of the year remains to be seen. But there is some likelihood that the Fed will cut rates a second time before Christmas. Which should stop this current drift to the downside. If the Fed cuts rates between now and the holiday season this current weakness will be seen as another chance to buy cheap gold if there is such a thing at these prices. Like I said yesterday, silver is anyone’s guess, but true silver bulls believe higher prices are only a matter of time.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Rise on Monday – Gold continues its upward climb, though the move is becoming stretched and difficult to chase. Key levels such as $4,200 and $4,400 are in focus, with market sentiment driven more by safety flows and bond reactions than by any major collapse in the US dollar. Technical Analysis – The gold market continues to drift higher, but quite frankly, at this point, we are a bit stretched, and it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out because, quite frankly, I think you have to be very cautious with chasing the trade, but clearly, it’s a one-directional market. You can’t get short of gold anytime soon. I just don’t know how you could justify it in this environment. So, with that, this is clearly a lot of people out there trying to find safety, and of course, maybe a reaction to the bond markets. We’ll have to wait and see. But at this point, we’ll be watching $4,400 to see whether or not we can break above there. If we can, then we just continue the overall trend. Right now, though, I expect to see quite a bit of choppiness. This is the beginning of the month, so maybe people are putting orders in because of that. Again, that’s really hard to tell, but it is a possibility. Buyers Are Taking a Breather as Silver Pulls Back From Record Highs – Spot silver (XAGUSD) has turned positive on Tuesday, erasing its early setback and pushing back above $58.02 after trading as low as $56.59 earlier in the session. The recovery signals that buyers remain firmly engaged following Monday’s record high at $58.85, with the market now stabilizing rather than slipping into deeper corrective pressure. The day’s range – $56.59 to $58.39 — reflects a controlled cooling phase after a nearly 100% year-to-date surge. Profit-Taking Fades as Buyers Step Back In – The initial pullback was driven mainly by profit-taking after Monday’s vertical climb, a natural reaction given the speed of the advance. Rising Treasury yields, with the 10-year holding near 4.114%, added some early pressure by raising the opportunity cost of holding metals. But the rebound into positive territory shows that dip-buyers remain ready to absorb supply, especially as long-term fundamentals stay supportive. Silver continues to benefit from strong demand tied to gold’s bull trend, structural physical deficits, and its proposed inclusion on a U.S. critical minerals list. These factors help maintain a deep pool of underlying buyers willing to step in when momentum briefly cools. Despite today’s recovery, traders continue to watch the $54.49 – $54.39 zone as the primary downside buffer should selling resume later this week. Above that, the 50% retracement at $53.74 remains the next meaningful level. The 50-day moving average at $49.94 still serves as the defining support for the broader trend and a line that many institutional players are using as long-entry reference. On the topside, the market’s ability to stabilize back above $58 strengthens the case for another attempt at the $58.85 record. If bullish momentum accelerates, breakout buyers may reengage quickly. Traders are gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s December 9 – 10 meeting, where money markets now price an 87% chance of a quarter-point rate cut – a sharp shift from 35% two weeks ago. Lower rates typically boost precious metals by reducing the appeal of yield-bearing assets. This week’s U.S. data slate – ADP employment, jobless claims, and the delayed September PCE report – remains critical. The latest ISM manufacturing release confirmed ongoing contraction, while speculation surrounding Kevin Hassett as a potential Fed chair continues to draw interest. Market Forecast – Silver’s rebound above $58 reinforces the near-term bullish stance. A sustained hold here keeps the door open for a retest of $58.85. Failure to push higher would shift attention back toward support at $54.49–$54.39 and then $53.74. With rate-cut expectations elevated and physical supply tight, the market bias stays bullish on dips, with traders favoring strength above $58 and deeper value plays near the 50-day average.
On the day gold closed down $52.70 at $4186.60, and silver closed down $0.44 at $57.98.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved higher, touching $4235.00 before settling somewhat and finishing the day in the green. Traders are looking for data which supports the notion that the FOMC will put in place a second interest rate cut by year end. This market continues to suggest higher prices are coming for gold and silver, especially if interest rates trend lower. But Bloomberg claims that because of volatility the price of silver could be $75.00 or $40.00!
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold steadies and silver eases from record high as markets await US data – Gold prices steadied on Wednesday as traders awaited U.S. economic indicators to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy direction while silver pulled back from a record high. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,203.58 an ounce by 1128 GMT after losing more than 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for February delivery were up 0.3% at $4,234.60. “Attention is on key U.S. data that could cement expectations for a metal-supportive December rate cut,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Investors are awaiting U.S. November ADP employment figures at 1315 GMT and the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on Friday. Weaker U.S. economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials have reinforced expectations of a rate cut at the central bank’s December 9-10 meeting, with brokerages projecting policy easing. CME’s FedWatch tool now shows an 87% chance of a rate cut next week. Non-yielding gold tends to perform well when interest rates are low. Meanwhile, silver fell 0.5% to $58.15 an ounce after touching a record high of $58.94. Silver is supported by a tight supply outlook, continued momentum buying and short-covering after last Friday’s break above $54.50, said Hansen, adding that overbought conditions posed a near-term risk for silver bulls. Silver, both a precious and industrial metal, is up by 101% this year and has also been supported by its inclusion in a U.S. list of critical minerals. Gold has gained 60% this year. Platinum gained 0.6% to $1,647.75 an ounce while palladium lost 0.5% to $1,455.34.
On the day gold closed up $12.70 at $4199.30, and silver closed down $0.06 at $57.92.
On Thursday the price of gold traded on both sides of $4195.00, finishing the day only mildly in the green, so for now the bulls are biding their time trying to make sense of the latest FOMC intention relative to interest rates between now and the holidays. This is another one of those tough to call markets but to me gold looks tired, and bullish sentiment is sagging. However, with lower interest rates probable between now and the first quarter of next year bullish sentiment may reset itself for fresh record highs. If the FOMC decides to drag its feet because it is worried about inflation, gold will likely trade sideways. How much time the FOMC can hold interest rates steady is the big question mark given insiders are worried about slowing US employment.
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold edges lower on stronger equities as investors look ahead to next Fed meeting – Gold ticked lower on Thursday as gains in equities markets in Asia and Europe weighed on safe-haven demand, while investors turned their attention to next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting and U.S. data that could shape the outlook for interest rates. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,191.26 per ounce, as of 1252 GMT. U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down 0.3% at $4,221 per ounce. “Gold bulls remain on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s PCE inflation figures. This, together with an uptick in risk appetite across equity markets, is limiting the upside for gold prices,” ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista said. Global shares edged up on Thursday, powered by expectations that a U.S. rate cut next week will support the world’s largest economy after a raft of data showed employment is slowing. U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, the steepest drop in more than two and a half years, Wednesday’s ADP report showed, though still-low layoffs indicate the decline may overstate labor-market weakness. Investors are now focused on U.S. weekly jobless claims due later today and Friday’s delayed September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the last key data points before next week’s FOMC meeting. Markets assign an 89% chance of a rate cut next week, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, while major brokerages also expect easing at the December 9–10 meeting. Lower interest rates tend to favor non-yielding assets such as gold. Meanwhile, silver fell 1.8% to $57.43 after touching a record high of $58.98 on Wednesday. Silver has risen 101% this year due to concerns about market liquidity after outflows to U.S. stocks, its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and a structural supply deficit. “Market participants may be front running given the massive capex expected with regards to AI and data centers, both of which are likely to lead to increased demand for silver and increase the supply/demand deficit heading into 2026,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Platinum lost 1.6% to $1,644.25, while palladium slid 0.4% to $1,455.
On the day gold closed up $12.50 at $4211.80, and silver closed down $1.07 at $56.85.
On Friday gold traders were upbeat, expecting that second rate reduction before Christmas. But I’m a bit on the cautious side given all this bullish expectation. It’s just my nature, when everyone is a buyer, it makes me suspicious. At any rate, I think the Fed may just surprise everyone and do nothing before Christmas because they are worried about inflation. If so, expect a sideways market with a few hundred dollars downside. I would not worry too much because this bull market is still developing…unless gold brakes below $4000.00.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Positive Moves – Gold traded slightly higher on Friday, holding above $4,200 as the market works through earlier bubble-like momentum. Sideways action and modest pullbacks appear constructive, with key support at $4,000 and longer-term targets stretching toward $4,400 – $5,000. Technical Analysis – The gold market is slightly positive during the trading session here on Friday as we are hanging around above the $4,200 level. The $4,200 level, of course, is an area that has been important multiple times. And this is, I think, a market that is just simply trying to work off some of the massive upward trajectory and bubble-like behavior that we had seen previously. This is just the market trying to work off excess momentum and volatility. All things being equal, I think short-term pullbacks give us an opportunity to buy gold because we’re not seeing massive selling pressure. Volume is lower than it once was, but I think a little bit of sideways action here actually ends up helping the markets in general. And with that being said, I think as long as we can stay above $4,000, we’re in decent shape. Really at that point in time, we would only be sideways, and that’s not the end of the world. Gold, of course, needs to cool off and become attractive for new money to come into the market. But it does have a permanent bid of sorts from the central banks out there, so I still like it. Ultimately, I do think we test the $4,400 level. If we break above there, then we go to $4,500 and start to have the conversation at that point about $5,000 an ounce. This sounds like a bit much at the moment, but then again, so did $4,000 just a year ago. Silver Continues to See Support on Friday – Silver rallied early Friday before giving back some gains, reflecting a market that may have surged too quickly. Resistance remains near $60, while support appears between $54 and $55. Despite volatility, the strong structural demand backdrop keeps shorts off the table. Technical Analysis – Silver has rallied during the early hours on Friday as we continue to see a lot of consolidation, but we are giving back some of the gains. And I think this is indicative of a market that just got too far ahead of itself. For me, it’s obvious that the $60 level is going to be a barrier. And with that in mind, I think you have to pay close attention to any time we get close to it. This is because if we do break $60 and go higher, that is an extraordinarily bullish sign. If we pulled back from here, the $55 level is the beginning of support extending down to the $54 level. All in all, I suspect this is a market that is trying to find its footing on any dips, and plenty of value hunters will probably be out there trying to get involved. Silver is starting to suffer from a lack of supply, although that’s been the case for years. The idea now, I think, is that artificial intelligence and green technology is finally being adopted enough that it’s going to demand more physical silver. But at the end of the day, part of this also has to do with the simple fact that there are more ounces of silver in futures markets on paper than there are in real life in the exchanges. That’s been the case for years. So, a short-term pullback, I think, has people looking to take advantage of what’s been a very explosive move. While I don’t like chasing this market, you clearly cannot get short of silver anytime soon. In fact, as a general rule of thumb, you’d have to be at the very least below the 50-day EMA, and the $50 level sits just below there. So that might get me interested in going short, and don’t get me wrong, someday there’s going to be a beautiful shorting opportunity in this market. It’s just that we don’t want to do it right now.
On the day gold closed up $1.10 at $4212.90, and silver closed up $1.57 at $58.42.
Platinum closed up $0.60 at $1655.00, and palladium closed up $20.50 at $1472.40.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,100.00. First resistance is seen at $4,273.30 and then at $4,300.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,224.60 and then at $4,200.00. March silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $60.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $55.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $59.655 and then at $60.00. Next support is seen at $57.00 and then at this week’s low of $56.85.
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