Commentary for Friday, June 27, 2025 – Today gold closed down $59.80 at $3273.70, and silver closed down $0.55 at $36.04. Unfortunately, the price of gold fell out of bed today, moving steadily lower – finding support around $3255.00. So, the bulls are facing a tough time in River City as risk aversion decreases and safe haven buying heads south, even as PCE inflation rises to 2.7% in May. The reason here being is the PCE number suggests that much talked about interest rate cuts may have to wait until later this year. Today’s breakdown of the $3300.00 floor of gold is troublesome. But it may have been suggested as gold tested overhead resistance four times at $3400.00. And failed on each attempt. And while the bears did roar today the expected interest rate cuts before year end should create fresh safe haven demand. There are other factors at work which will support the physical bullion market. The Middle East standoff between two deadly rivals is tenuous. I have doubts that anyone can make this work in the longer term. Finally, if you compare today’s gold price with all-time highs ($3500.00), the difference is relatively small when considering the longer term. And the explosion in fiat currency both here and overseas. Last Friday gold closed at $3368.10 / silver at $35.98. On the week gold was down $94.40, and silver was up $0.06 .
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
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On Monday the price of gold dipped on the open, which is surprising considering all the geopolitical uncertainty. But pricing quickly turned volatile, climbing to session highs of $3390.00 but only finishing the day mildly in the green. I expected more fireworks but as long as the Fed remains hawkish on interest rates this market may continue to cool short term. The elephant in the living room is Trump’s use of US air power to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. And Iran’s retaliation, which according to Bloomberg may be a missile launch toward the US airbase in Qatar. President Trump is talking “regime change” but such a move could produce an even more unstable situation. Traders are waiting for this “second shoe” cataclysm to develop but there may be enough trouble on the table to support the price of gold in the short term.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold firms on safe-haven demand, all eyes on Iran’s next move – “Gold edged higher on Monday as Iran-Israel tensions lifted safe-haven demand, though gains were limited by a stronger dollar, while markets closely watched for any Iranian response to U.S. strikes on its nuclear sites. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,369.80 an ounce, as of 1211 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $3,385.90. “Continued and multiple geopolitical uncertainties will likely continue to underpin (gold prices),” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “The prospect of a Fed rate cut delay amid higher energy prices potentially strengthening the dollar calls for patience with a fresh record high not on the immediate horizon.” The dollar firmed 0.6% against its peers, limiting gains for gold as it makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. Iran and Israel traded air and missile strikes as the world braced for Tehran’s response to the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites and U.S. President Donald Trump raised the idea of regime change in the Islamic Republic. Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran’s Fordow nuclear site. The U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites injected fresh uncertainty into the outlook for inflation and economic activity at the start of a week chock-full of new economic data and central banker commentary, including two days of Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Last week, the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady, but slowed its overall outlook for rate cuts in response to a more challenging economic outlook. Investors are currently anticipating 50 basis points worth of Fed rate cuts by the end of this year. Bullion tends to perform well in low-interest-rate environments and during periods of uncertainty. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.3% to $36.12, platinum rose 2.1% at $1,292.03, while palladium gained 2.7% to $1,072.42.”
On the day gold closed up $9.60 at $3377.70, and silver closed up $0.17 at $36.15.
On Tuesday the price of gold fell out of bed as Middle East tensions eased with both parties agreeing to a ceasefire. But as usual “saying and doing” is always a rough road in the Middle East. Gold moved from an opening high of $3350.00 through an early supporting floor around $3300.00, with evidence that paper traders are buying this dip to some degree. But this trade remains tricky. This is because each side expects early violations, and Trump has already told Israel to “calm down” over early transgressions. So, is this ceasefire “shaky”?
Of course, it is in fact a kind of miracle in my mind, but it is the best first foot forward in a very dangerous standoff between long time enemies. But according to the New York Times Netanyahu is consulting top ministers as the ceasefire appears to have a positive outcome. The 50 Day Moving Average for gold ($3317.00) is a technical tool sometimes used to better understand bullish from bearish sentiment. If gold holds ($3317.00) the bulls will be encouraged. But if it does not hold ($3317.00) it could be an early sign that further downside is in the making.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Reactions to Middle East – “The gold market fell hard on Tuesday in early trading, as the Iranians and Israelis have decided on a ceasefire. This has taken a bit of the “geopolitical risk” out of the market, and therefore we have seen a selloff. We remain in the overall range though. Technical Analysis – The gold market fell pretty significantly during the early hours on Tuesday as a ceasefire has been agreed to by both Israel and Iran. And this takes some of the geopolitical hype out of gold. That being said, there are still plenty of reasons to believe gold goes higher over the longer term. And we are currently roughly in the middle of a larger consolidation area anyway. So, you really can’t read too much into the candlestick by itself. The $3,300 level could be significant support now that the 50 day EMA is there as well. But even if we break down below there, we have structural support and $3,200, which is the bottom of the consolidation area that we have bounced around in. The top of that area, the $3,500 level, has proven to be pretty difficult to break above. And now we’re in a situation where we’ll have to see whether or not the currency markets could give a hand. After all, the US dollar starts falling, it is possible gold gets a bit eventually, but there’s so much going on right now at the same time that it’s not a huge surprise that we’re still in this $300 range. I believe that this is a buy on the dip market until proven otherwise and that would be somewhere below $3,000. So, you have to be careful with gold. It is moving on the latest headlines right now, which makes it a little bit difficult to trade. So, position sizing will be crucial. This is going to be true with any commodity at the moment, but especially gold, as it’s considered to be a safe asset, and one headline coming out of the Middle East could turn things right back around. But as things stand right now, it looks like everybody’s pretty relaxed, and it has taken some of the fear trade out of this market.” Silver Continues to See Buyers on Dips – “Silver has initially fallen significantly in the early hours of Tuesday, as the market reacted to the ceasefire, taking out some of the “risk trade.” However, we are holding the range again. Ultimately, there are a lot of “moving pieces” to pay attention to. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially fell during the early hours on Tuesday as we got word that the Iranians and the Israelis agreed to a ceasefire and that had a lot of the safety trade disappeared. That being said, silver is only so much of a safety trade it is also an industrial metal. So, we’ll have to question whether or not we have enough industrial demand to continue to push it higher, as we had seen previously. Nonetheless, this is a market at least for my money looks bullish more than anything else, as we are testing the bottom of a consolidation phase right here at the $35.50 level, only to turn around and show resiliency yet again. I think that’s true with both metals, gold and silver, and one will almost certainly lead the other but ultimately, I do think you have a situation where there’s no real reason to short this market and even if we broke down below the $35.48 level, then we could drop to the 50 day EMA where I think even more value hunting would appear. The US dollar, of course, dropping in value during the day, has helped silver as well. So, it’s more of a “risk on move” at this point. If we can take out the $37.50 level to the upside, we will probably go looking at the $40.00 level based on the current range that we are trading in.”
On the day gold closed down $60.30 at $3317.40, and silver closed down $0.45 at $35.70.
On Wednesday the price of gold weakened to some degree moving from $3330.00 through $3310.00 daily support, but these numbers are not large enough to focus on the bull or the bear scenario. The fact that gold did not make new highs during the standoff between Israel and Iran is a negative because it failed to generate fresh buzz. At the same time gold is holding the higher end of its current trading range, but the technical picture is beginning to cool.
I conclude that traders remain cautious about Trump’s approach. And investors will play safe haven demand from both sides of the street. Which results in a back and forth trading range. Gold finished slightly in the green today – a minor plus, but there are large crosswinds, especially in the short term. Gold’s price will likely continue to consolidate, remaining defensive, with a drift to the downside. Our across the counter cash action was very quiet today which might suggest the public believes the price of gold will again move higher in the short term.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold dips as geopolitical tensions ease, focus turns to US data – “Gold prices eased on Wednesday as a ceasefire between Iran and Israel reduced safe-haven demand, while market participants stayed cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,314.45 per ounce at 0934 a.m. EDT (1334 GMT) after prices hit their lowest in over two weeks in the previous session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $3,328.10. With all the momentum and potential in the markets, the factors that typically drive gold never pushed it to new highs, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “So, I think the path is now more to the downside; it may hit $2,900 if things don’t escalate in the Middle East.” U.S. President Donald Trump reveled in the swift end to war between Iran and Israel, saying he now expected a relationship with Tehran that would preclude rebuilding its nuclear program. Wall Street’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes rose on Wednesday, hovering near a record peak. Investors are also looking out for the second day of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, scheduled to start at 10:00 a.m. ET. On Tuesday, Powell emphasized that a rate cut decision can only be taken after observing the effect of tariffs, inflation and weakness in the labor market. The U.S. GDP and jobs data are due on Thursday, while the Price Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data is scheduled to be released on Friday, which traders are closely monitoring to gauge the Fed’s future policy path better. The market currently sees an over 85% chance of a rate cut in September. Bullion tends to do well during periods of uncertainty and in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver shed 0.3% to $35.79, platinum lost 0.8% to $1,305.74, while palladium dropped 1.8% to $1,046.73.
On the day gold closed up $9.70 at $3327.10, and silver closed up $0.39 at $36.09.
On Thursday gold moved lower, testing support around $3310.00 and finishing the day mildly in the green. Which is surprising considering the Middle East worries are cooling. But for the most part gold seems to be ignoring dollar weakness. As reflected in the Dollar Index which is testing 3 year lows but not creating any buzz in the process. The good news is that insiders expect 2 interest rate cuts this year beginning in September. And we are halfway through this year and safe haven demand remains firm, suggesting investors are patiently looking for higher prices. At the same time the Dow and Nasdaq are hovering at new highs supporting risk-off sentiment which might suggest further weakness in the metals.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold slips on easing Mideast tensions, Fed rate cut uncertainty – “Gold prices edged lower on Thursday, weighed down by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,316.47 per ounce, as of 0933 a.m. EDT (1333 GMT). U.S. gold futures slipped 0.4% to $3,329.20. “Gold has declined over the past few sessions due to de-escalation in the Middle East. Also, adding pressure was the anticipated interest rate cut — eagerly awaited by the market that continues to be delayed amid rising inflation expectations driven by Trump-era tariffs,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin cautioned it was hard to know how tariff increases will translate into inflation in the U.S. economy. Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said a decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to name a replacement for Fed chair Jerome Powell would have no influence on monetary policy from outside the central bank. Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, starting in September. Gold usually does well during times of uncertainty and inflation, but higher interest rates make it less attractive since it doesn’t earn any interest. Data showed the U.S. economy contracted a bit faster than previously thought in the first quarter amid tepid consumer spending, underscoring the distortions caused tariffs. Investors are now eyeing Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. Palladium lost 2.5% to $1,084.41. Platinum climbed to its highest level since September 2014, adding 1.7% to $1,377.62. Internal combustion vehicles are likely to remain relevant for longer as governments delay phase-out targets, and biofuel adoption continues to rely on platinum group metals, said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree.
On the day gold closed up $6.40 at $3333.50, and silver closed up $0.50 at $36.59.
On Friday the bad news was that gold dropped like a rock. The good news was that traders seemed interested in bargain hunting because there was a reasonable bounce at $3255.00. Still, it is a bit early to chase this market. A bit of patience may prove rewarding. My best guess is the gold will continue soft as the Middle East cools with $3200.00 becoming short term support.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Safe-haven gold falls 2% on easing US-China trade tensions – “Gold fell 2% on Thursday, hitting a near one-month low, after a U.S.-China trade agreement boosted risk appetite and diminished bullion’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold fell 2% to $3,261.28 per ounce by 0934 a.m. EDT (1334 GMT), its lowest level since May 29. Bullion was down for a second straight week, slipping 3.2% so far. U.S. gold futures dropped 2.2% to $3,272.90. “The slowdown in geopolitics has offered an opportunity for investors to start taking profit because of the forward-looking prospects of some kind of kinetic war with China and the developments in the Middle East,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. A trade agreement between the U.S. and China on Thursday on how to expedite rare earth shipments to the U.S. was seen by markets as a positive sign. Following this, global shares rallied. In the Middle East, the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel continues to hold following a few skirmishes at the start. On the data front, U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May as the boost from the pre-emptive buying of goods like motor vehicles ahead of tariffs faded, while monthly inflation increases remained moderate. Traders added to bets the Federal Reserve will lower short-term borrowing costs by 75 basis points in 2025, most likely starting in September, after the data. However, the data isn’t moving the needle on gold as it is seeing sell-off due to geopolitics, Pavilonis added. A stable geopolitical and economic environment reduces gold’s safe-haven appeal driving investors towards riskier assets, while high interest rates make gold less favorable due to its non-yielding nature. Spot silver slipped 2% to $35.88 and was set to fall for the week. Palladium fell 0.8% to $1,122.77 but was headed for weekly gains. Platinum eased 6.5% to $1,325.48 headed for a fourth consecutive weekly rise.”
On the day gold closed down $59.80 at $3273.70, and silver closed down $0.55 at $36.04.
Platinum closed down $58.90 at $1340.90, and palladium closed up $8.30 at $1145.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,200.00. First resistance is seen at $3,300.00 and then at the overnight high of $3,341.40. First support is seen at $3,269.10 and then at $3,250.00. July silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned choppy at higher levels recently. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the June high of $37.405. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at $36.00 and then at $36.50. Next support is seen at $35.50 and then at this week’s low of $35.195.”
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