Commentary for Feb, 13, 2026 – Today gold closed up $98.30 at $5022.00, and silver closed up $2.30 at $77.85. Considering this week’s volatility, investors will like how gold and silver finished the week. While some might call this a relief rally, I would not make that assumption. Gold is moving higher, testing overhead resistance around $5000.00 because inflation seems to be moving lower. Which gives the Fed room to lower interest rates. But, as always, this is a short term picture and is subject to volatility because we are looking at record prices. The better view is to ignore this chatter and ask yourself what the price of gold might be a decade from now? My bet is that both gold and silver bullion will be less available. And prices will set fresh records because the US prints fiat paper money 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will take action to balance our ridiculous free lunch spending. Last Friday gold closed at $4951.20, and silver closed at $76.73. On the week gold was up $70.80, and silver was up $1.12. Just a reminder that we will be closed next Monday February 16 for Presidents Day, enjoy your holiday.
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On Monday gold dipped to support around $4990.00 and then quickly moved to session highs of $5070.00 finishing nicely in the green for the day. This gain is the result two factors, first, the Dollar Index is testing session lows and second, the geopolitical scene worldwide continues to suggest that safe have demand will remain robust. Ernest Hoffman also offers an interesting change in these trading dynamics. Gold and silver enter a new high-volatility regime. Both gold and silver are no longer behaving like safe havens of any kind and have instead moved into a high-volatility regime – which changes the rules of the game for investors, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus. In the latest update, the analysts wrote that gold has transitioned from a safe haven to a speculative asset. “The seeds of the price decline were sown in the preceding rally that for a supposedly low-volatility safe-haven asset was exceptional,” they said. “The price of gold has gone up 5x in 10 years, but the dollar index is at the same level that it was in 2015. With such a sharp price drop there was likely an element of leveraged positions being unwound, with stop losses being hit and rising margin requirements. Exchanges are still raising margin requirements for futures’ positions.” The analysts also cite World Gold Council Q4’25 Gold Demand Trends report, which showed gold demand reaching 5,000 tons for the first time last year. “That was driven by significantly higher investment demand that more than offset declines in jewelry and industrial uses.” Central bank purchases came to 863 tons, 21% lower than the record 1,092 tons in 2024, but still higher than any year prior to 2022. Gold demand in the fourth quarter also reached a record of 1,345 tons, again with investment offsetting weakness in jewelry and industrial demand. All that being said, investors may see higher prices and fresh new records before year end with increased volatility.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold rises as dollar slips, focus turns to US jobs data – Gold prices rose on Monday, buoyed by a softer dollar as investors braced for a week packed with U.S. economic data that could offer more clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Spot gold rose 1.2% to $5,018.56 per ounce by 9:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT), extending a 4% rally from Friday. U.S. gold futures for April delivery also gained 1.3% to $5,042.20 per ounce. The U.S. dollar fell 0.8% to a more than one-week low, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. “The big mover today (in gold prices) is the U.S. dollar,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, adding that expectations are growing for weak economic data, particularly on the labor front. Investors are closely watching this week’s release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls, consumer prices and initial jobless claims for fresh signals on monetary policy, with markets already pricing in at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2026. U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 70,000 in January, according to a Reuters poll. Lower interest rates tend to support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non‑yielding asset. Meanwhile, China’s central bank extended its gold buying spree for a 15th month in January, data from the People’s Bank of China showed on Saturday. “The debasement trade continues, with ongoing geopolitical risks driving people into gold,” Melek said, adding that China’s purchases have had a psychological impact on the market. Spot silver climbed 2.9% to $80.22 per ounce after a near 10% gain in the previous session. It hit an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29. Spot platinum was down 0.2% at $2,092.95 per ounce, while palladium was steady at $1,707.25. “A slowdown in EV sales hasn’t really materialized despite all the policy softening, so I do see that platinum and palladium will possibly slow down,” after a bullish run in 2025, WisdomTree commodities strategist Nitesh Shah said.
On the day gold closed up $99.70 at $5050.90, and silver closed up $5.33 at $82.07.
On Tuesday the price of gold was volatile, finishing the day in the red. This is disappointing given yesterday’s jump of almost $100.00. Silver was also choppy around $81.00. Both metals are holding key price points aided by a weak dollar according to veteran trader Gary Wagner (Kitco). These bearish clouds, in the short term, may serve to diminish safe haven demand. Some investors are selling gold and silver because they are trading around all-time highs. The latest from the Federal Reserve also encourages the bears and may portend the beginning of a chilling trend in the metals because interest rates may not be lower anytime soon. Cleveland Federal Reserve president Beth Hammack said Tuesday that she believes monetary policy is in a “good place” to maintain interest rates and that, based on her forecast, the central bank could be on hold “for quite some time.” This hawkish move suggests lower prices are still in the cards as traders continue to deal with violent cross winds and increasing volatility.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczy) – Is the Gold Market Coiling for a Breakout Rally? – Gold Consolidates as Traders Await Jobs and Inflation Data – Spot Gold is trading relatively flat on Tuesday. The market is posting an inside day, suggesting investor indecision and impending volatility. The key level to watch for direction today is a short-term 50% level at $5002.31. At 12:53 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $5028.52, down $29.52 or -0.58%. A sustained move over $5002.31 will indicate the presence of buyers, setting the stage for a potential breakout to the upside over the Fibonacci level at $5143.89. A breakdown under $5002.31 will mean that investors still feel the need to continue to build a stronger support base for the next rally. The overall hesitation to overcome the retracement zone at $5002.31 to $5143.89 with conviction could be an indication that investors are looking for value rather than momentum. Long-Term Bullish Foundation Still Intact – The long-term bullish fundamentals remain in place. A recent report showed that China was still a buyer of gold in January for a 15th straight month, and the geopolitical picture remains clouded with uncertainty. Maybe not enough to trigger a breakout rally, but enough to provide underlying support. – Traders are saying that improved risk appetite for global equities could be capping gains today. If that’s the case, then we may have to focus on the S&P 500 Index later today for an intraday catalyst. They are also looking at this week’s U.S. economic reports for direction, starting with today’s retail sales and finishing with Wednesday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report and Friday’s consumer inflation data. NFP and CPI Will Determine the Next Move – It all comes down to what will influence Fed policy the most. What could move the Fed rate cut needle from June to March or maybe even June to September. Gold traders expect the NFP report to show the economy added 70,000 jobs in January. Steady or better numbers could sink gold prices because it will keep the odds of a June rate cut on the table and could even push them into September. A big miss, and gold will launch another rally. While the NFP could produce a volatile reaction on Wednesday, conditions could shift even more dramatically if consumer inflation rises above expectations on Friday. This could be bearish news for gold too. The ideal recipe for a gold rally will be weak jobs data and steady-to-lower CPI. The size of the reaction in gold will be determined by whether the news shifts the next rate cut to March or leaves it at June. Technical Picture: Building a Solid Base – Technically, the trend is up according to the daily swing chart and the 50-day moving average at $4580.20. The market has been consolidating inside a wide range, bordered by $4402.38 and $5091.93. Its pivot is $4747.15. Holding inside the range helps to create a solid support base, and this is good for the bulls because the height of the next rally is often determined by the length of the base. The rally from a spike bottom is often met with selling. A rally from a solid base tends to have some durability. Retail Sales in Focus as Traders Look for Clarity in Silver Market – Silver Consolidates as Traders Wait for Wednesday’s NFP Spot Silver is edging lower on Tuesday after nudging into a 50% pivot earlier in the session. The market appears to be consolidating inside a retracement zone, slightly above the 50-day moving average. The price action suggests investors may be attempting to form a support base as they await the next major catalyst. At 10:36 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $82.47, down $0.84 or -1.01%. Mixed Signals, No Clear Driver – Today’s action doesn’t make much sense on the surface. Crude oil is reacting to Iran-U.S. tensions, but silver and gold aren’t following. The dollar is down, which should help silver, but it’s not. Lower Treasury yields are supportive long-term but not providing any lift today either. That disconnect tells you traders are sitting tight ahead of this week’s data. The usual catalysts – geopolitical risk, dollar weakness, falling yields—aren’t driving action because the market is waiting for concrete direction from economic reports. Data Week: Retail Sales, NFP, and CPI Silver traders are expressing caution ahead of today’s U.S. retail sales data and especially in front of Wednesday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Friday’s CPI reports. This data is important because it could help determine the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut in 2026, which the market is currently pricing for June. There’s no question that silver traders pay attention to the Fed. Much of the rally in 2025 to the top on January 29 was linked to expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. That top came one day after the Fed’s last monetary policy statement and one day before President Trump announced his nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman – proof that Fed policy drives this market. As long as the data keeps two Fed rate cuts on the table, silver’s uptrend stays intact. If the data comes in too strong and kills rate cut expectations, the market’s in trouble. Technical Picture: Two Ways to Read This – Technically, the direction of the market today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $83.61. A sustained move over this level could launch a rally into the next resistance cluster at $92.20 to $92.87. If traders fail to overcome the pivot, look for a pullback into the 50-day moving average at $78.62. A break below that level could extend losses into the Fibonacci level at $74.63. Alternatively, focus on the 50-day moving average at $78.62 as the key trend indicator. As long as the market holds above it and the economic data keeps two Fed rate cuts in play, it’s just a matter of time before the rally resumes. Silver should eventually pull away from the current congestion area, even if the path to the record high at $121.67 isn’t clear yet. The Bottom Line Today’s is a wait-and-see session. The market’s not reacting to geopolitics, the dollar, or yields. Traders want to see what the data says before committing. Wednesday’s NFP is the catalyst everyone’s watching.
On the day gold closed down $47.10 at $5003.80, and silver closed down $1.85 at $80.22.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved initially to a session high of $5110.00, then settled and finished the day nicely in the green. A bit surprising considering the latest from the Fed is that there will likely not be any reduction in interest rates at least for now. Early gold pricing today suggests that safe haven demand remains. But prices dipped after today’s robust jobs report which hints the FOMC may have greater leeway as it keeps interest rates steady. Still, it appears to me that the price of gold and silver may already be in some sort of consolidation phase, which could in turn increase selling in the physical market to some degree. Over the long term traders expect fresh records and increased volatility underpinned by rising geopolitical tension. It was curious to me that the foot traffic at the store and the phone business were quiet today.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold trims gains as strong U.S. jobs data dampens rate‑cut bets – Gold prices traded higher on Wednesday but pared gains from earlier in the session, after a strong U.S. employment report suggested the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for some time. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $5,067.09 per ounce by 09:02 a.m. ET (1402 GMT), after rising as much as $5,118.47 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 1.1% to $5,087.80 per ounce. U.S. job growth accelerated in January and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, signaling labor‑market resilience that could give the Fed room to hold rates steady while it monitors inflation. The strong employment report “will shut the tiny crack in the door for a March rate cut that retail sales opened yesterday,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, data showed on Tuesday, potentially setting consumer spending and the economy on a slower growth path heading into the new year. The Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending in May but cut immediately afterward in June, a Reuters poll showed, with economists warning that policy under his likely successor, Kevin Warsh, could become too loose. Non-yielding gold typically performs well during periods of geopolitical or economic uncertainty and when interest rates are lower. Investors focus now await the U.S. consumer price index report due on Friday. “Since the big collapse, gold has shown mostly higher highs and higher lows, with buyers still confident amid the debt and divest‑from‑the‑U.S. narrative,” Wong said. Gold suffered sharp two‑day sell‑offs on January 30 and February 2 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his pick for Fed chair, though it remains up 17.5% for the year on growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Spot silver was up 5.1% at $84.84 per ounce, after falling more than 3% in the previous session. Spot platinum rose 3.3% to $2,155.25 per ounce, while palladium added 2.9% to $1,757.96.
On the day gold closed up $67.80 at $5071.60, and silver closed up $3.53 at $83.75.
On Thursday the price of gold opened in a choppy manner, holding support around $5040.00 as risk appetite improves and the Fed ponders its next inflation move. But then this market crashed as traders pushed the red “sell button” and the price of gold collapsed, finding bargain hunting around $4880.00. This action in similar to the sudden sell off seen in early February when gold dropped by 9%. And was attributed to forced liquidation, a stronger dollar, and the nomination of a hawkish Federal Reserve Chair. Today’s second big dip to the downside throws up a red flag and places a wet blanket on bullish sentiment. In my mind this market is now unstable, and the smart money will stand aside because the reasons for this second pounding are unknown at the present time. Investors should approach the metals from the very cautious side again this week. The dollar drifting lower is a bullish plus, but I am still worried about volatility. The technical experts see downside support at $4900.00 in gold and $74.00 in silver.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Market Braces for CPI After NFP Shock – Spot Gold is edging lower early Thursday as the U.S. Dollar firmed as traders continued to react to yesterday’s hotter-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The report, which beat expectations decisively, lowered expectations for a March interest rate cut by the Fed and caused traders to question a June rate cut. However, the final conclusion on rates until next month will be Friday’s consumer inflation report. Dollar Rebound Weighs on Gold, Geopolitics Take Back Seat – The U.S. Dollar is slightly lower on Thursday, but the damage was done to dollar-denominated gold the previous session when the greenback rebounded from a one-week low. Geopolitics seem to have taken a backseat this week, although it’s still providing long-term support. This week, gold traders have been zeroing in on the U.S. economic data because it can have a two-way influence on the yellow metal. The economic data could impact Fed policy for several months and, consequently, gold prices despite the long-term spin on central bank buying and safe-haven demand. Fed’s Focus Shifts Back to Inflation – The first of the two-way risks fell on Wednesday with the release of the jobs report. For months, the Fed had hinted that the weakening U.S. employment outlook was their primary concern and that inflation would eventually come down. However, that narrative flipped at the January 27-28 Fed meeting when Chairman Powell hinted that the central bank’s focus had now shifted back to sticky inflation. That brings Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the forefront. Yesterday’s reaction by the dollar and gold may be considered meek compared to what those markets may do if the CPI data follows the NFP data and comes out hotter than expected. Hot CPI Could Push Rate Cuts to September – Right now, data points toward a June rate cut, but if the consumer inflation data comes out above the forecasts, then traders can push the first cut of 2026 into September, and this will probably drive the dollar sharply higher and drive gold back to recent lows. We said that Fed policy was just one part of the long-term bull market, so a short-term pullback into a support zone could be a good thing for the long-term bulls who are getting their guidance from central bank buying. The uncertainty surrounding the timing and the number of Fed rate cuts this year could linger for months before the jobs market lines up with inflation expectations. In the meantime, gold traders should be prepared for a choppy, two-sided trade over the near-term.
On the day gold closed was down $147.90 at $4923.70, and silver was down $8.20 at $75.75.
On Friday the price of gold moved between $4940.00 and $5010.00 as the Consumer Price Index suggested that inflation continues to cool. This in turn spurred the hope that the Federal Reserve will seriously consider a cut in interest rates this year. Gold dropped a whopping $147.90 yesterday so today’s bounce to the upside spurs bullish sentiment. The market is watching inflation numbers in the short term and acting accordingly. The store and parking lot were less busy today with more sellers of gold and silver bullion because of yesterday’s big dip to the downside. I’m back to thinking there may not be much downside in the shorter term.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey and Anjana Anil) – Gold rises over 1% as soft inflation data rekindles Fed rate cut hopes – Gold prices rose more than 1% on Friday as weaker than expected U.S. inflation data reignited hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, offsetting concerns from stronger than expected jobs data earlier in the week. Spot gold was up 1.5% at $4,992.27 per ounce as of 09:12 a.m. ET (1412 GMT), and up 0.6% so far this week. Bullion fell about 3% on Thursday, hitting its lowest in nearly a week. U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose 1.3% to $5,013.60 per ounce. “Gold, and particularly silver, is enjoying a relief rally after a mild January CPI reading eased nerves stoked by Wednesday’s strong employment report,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. CPI comes in lower than expected – Spot silver climbed 2.7% to $78.72 per ounce, snapping back from an 11% decline in the previous session. It was on track for a weekly gain of 1.2%. The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January, below economists’ expectations of a 0.3% increase, following an unrevised 0.3% gain in December, the Labor Department said. Market participants currently anticipate a total of 63 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first expected in July, according to data compiled by LSEG. Non-yielding bullion tends to do well in low interest-rate environments. Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed the United States added 130,000 jobs in January, compared with analysts’ estimates of 70,000. China’s gold demand stayed strong ahead of the Lunar New Year, while in India, the market flipped to a discount. ANZ analysts raised their Q2 gold forecast to $5,800/oz from $5,400, citing its appeal as an insurance asset, while noting that silver, though still supported by strong investment demand, may see its recent outperformance fade as industrial buyers balk at higher prices. Spot platinum rose 2.7% to $2,053.01 per ounce and palladium was up 2% at $1,649.50. Both metals were set to notch weekly losses.
On the day gold closed up $98.30 at $5022.00, and silver up $2.30 at $77.85.
Platinum closed up $57.20 at $2071.20, palladium closed up $47.20 at $1697.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $4,670.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $5,016.40 and then at $5,100.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $4,900.00 and then at $4,800.00. March silver futures bulls see the next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $92.01. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $63.90. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at $82.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $73.74 and then at $71.20.
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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