Commentary for Friday, Nov 21, 2025 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $20.20 at $4076.70, and silver closed down $0.38 at $49.87. It looks like the price of gold this week is stuck because the Fed will not reduce interest rates a second time before the end of this year. They are worried about inflation. These higher interest rates may cap gold prices through the first quarter of next year. Still, I’m not worried about gold’s longer term prospects because central bank demand, geopolitical problems and the likelihood that the Fed will lower interest rates next year should set the stage for fresh record highs. At this point a little patience may prove rewarding if President Trump gets his way with interest rates. Last Friday gold closed at $4087.60 / silver at $50.59. On the week gold was down $10.90, and silver was down $0.72.
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On Monday the price of gold opened choppy but turned defensive in the early morning trade, tested support at $4010.00, being pressured by a stronger dollar. And with diminished chances of an interest rate cut this year, traders are expecting lower prices. On the day gold finished in the red denting bullish sentiment going into the holiday season. If you are looking for something outside the box to wake up safe haven demand in gold, consider the possibility of weakness in an overbought stock market. Or perhaps a forced rate cut by the FOMC as our economy slows.
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold edges lower as dollar firms; investors eye US data – Gold prices ticked down on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut next month, as investors awaited delayed economic data this week that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,068.37 per ounce, as of 01:45 p.m. ET (18:45 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.5% lower at $4,074.5 per ounce. The dollar index inched higher, making dollar-priced bullion expensive for holders of other currencies. The market is seeing “some back and forth choppy action ahead of what is expected to be a release of a deluge of economic data now that the U.S. government has reopened,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “Right now, there’s a lesser expectation for additional Fed rate cuts, which has dented optimism for gold.” This week’s calendar includes September jobs data on Thursday and minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, where it cut rates by 25 basis points, on Wednesday. Meanwhile, an increasing number of Fed policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance on rate cuts for the central bank’s next meeting in December. Traders are currently pricing in a 41% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, down from more than 60% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. At least four Fed speakers, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, are slated to speak later in the day. Safe-haven gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset. Scotiabank analysts estimate gold prices at $3,800/oz for 2026, compared with $3,450/oz this year, citing uncertain economic conditions and an eventual decline in real interest rates.
On the day gold closed down $19.30 at $4068.30, and silver closed up $0.04 at $50.63.
On Tuesday morning the price of gold drifted lower, testing support around $4000.00. Traders bought this weakness and prices moved to session highs of $4080.00. By the closing bell gold finished slightly in the red but off balance as the Fed will likely not lower interest rates a second time this year. This hawkish FOMC move suggests that Chief Powell is worried about inflation. Because of this insiders are expecting even lower gold prices in the near term.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold slips to one-week low as traders scale back US rate cut bets – Gold prices fell to their lowest levels in more than a week on Tuesday as fading bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month dented demand ahead of delayed U.S. economic data this week. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,039.71 per ounce as of 1213 GMT, after hitting its lowest since November 10 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.9% to $4,039 per ounce. “Market participants are pricing out U.S. interest rate cuts following more hawkish comments from Fed officials,” said UBS analyst Staunovo. “I would expect gold prices to bottom out soon, as I still see the Fed cutting rates several times over the coming quarters, and central banks’ diversification into gold remains strong.” Markets have trimmed their bets for a rate cut next month to just over a 46% chance from 67% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. The longest U.S. government shutdown, which ended last week, led to a halt of official economic data, leaving policymakers and traders flying blind ahead of next month’s Fed policy meeting. Traders had hoped the resumption of official data would make the case for a December rate cut, but those hopes faded as more Fed officials last week signaled caution. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that the central bank needed to “proceed slowly” on further rate cuts. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainties. Investors will be looking to Wednesday’s release of minutes from the Fed’s last meeting and September non-farm payrolls due on Thursday for further cues. “We still see a longer-term favorable fundamental backdrop for gold. The U.S. economy continues to cool, U.S. interest rates are set to fall and the U.S. dollar should weaken as a result,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. Elsewhere, spot silver was steady at $50.2 per ounce, platinum was marginally up at $1,534.30, and palladium gained 0.7% to $1,402.73.
On the day gold closed down $7.00 at $4061.30, and silver closed down $0.18 at $50.45.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved higher on the open, likely the result of increased safe haven demand. This move is a bit surprising considering the FOMC will likely not cut interest rates this year because of inflation jitters. There are also rumors of an impending stock market crash, thus the jump in safe haven interest. I would buy the argument that Wall Street is overbought, but a possible crash seems an overreaction. The FOMC minutes and the latest jobs report may provide traders with clarity as to short term pricing, but today’s $4000.00 number is worth noting. Bulls are convinced that higher gold prices are inevitable, if not this year, then in 2026. My theory that higher prices in the metals will create a wave of selling is on the back burner. The smart money, however, will keep in mind that gold and silver bullion remain an emotional trade, spurred by shifting geopolitical events and changing White House strategy.
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold rises 1% on safe-haven demand ahead of key US data – Gold prices climbed over 1% on Wednesday, as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes later in the day and delayed U.S. employment data on Thursday. Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,116.26 per ounce, at 9:36 a.m. ET (1436 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.3% to $4,117.10 per ounce. “There’s safe haven buying that’s going on in the market right now…. The (job) numbers that have come out have been a little softer, and there are jitters in the equity markets,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn. Global shares stabilized on Wednesday, following another selloff driven by nerves over AI valuations, although the mood was cautious ahead of what could be make-or-break earnings from chip titan Nvidia and U.S. jobs data this week. Meanwhile, data showed on Tuesday that the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits stood at a two-month high in mid-October. Markets will scrutinize the release of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes at 2 p.m. ET today for clarity on policymakers’ stance on another rate cut. The central bank trimmed interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting, but Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on further cuts this year. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainty. Also on tap is the release of September’s job report on Thursday, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, expected to provide an early gauge of economic health. Economists polled by Reuters expect the September employment report to show 50,000 jobs were added during the month. Traders now see a 51% chance for a rate cut, compared to 46% earlier in the session, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 2.3% to $51.87 per ounce, platinum added 1.3% to $1,544.80, and palladium fell 0.5% to $1,396.50.
On the day gold closed up $16.40 at $4077.70, and silver closed up $0.34 at $50.79.
On Thursday the price of gold moved between $4040.00 and $4090.00, testing the higher and lower pricing patterns yet finishing the day in the red. So, we continue to bounce on both sides of $4000.00 as traders wait for fresh news which might push prices one way or the other. Investors should watch gold’s 50 Day Moving Average ($3960.00) for clues as to short term direction. A break to the downside on the 50 DMA would not be good, suggesting further losses. In the longer term bullish sentiment should be supported by safe haven demand worldwide.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Bounce Around on Thursday – Gold trades unevenly early Thursday as it sits atop an uptrend line near key support around $4,000. Weakening volume and divergence raise caution, with $3,960 viewed as a critical level that could trigger deeper selling if broken. Technical Analysis – The gold markets have gone back and forth during the trading session in the early hours of Thursday, as we are sitting on top of an uptrend line. The $4,000 level offers a bit of support, and we have the 50-day EMA sitting just below there. All things being equal, this is a market that eventually will try to bounce. But if we were to break down below the 50-day EMA, which is roughly $3,960, there is a chance of this market dropping fairly significantly. As of late, it has been interesting due to the fact that we shot straight up in the air with a lot of volume, then fell with even more, bounced again with rising volume, but not as much as the first rally, and now it looks like we are losing volume again. If this divergence keeps up, it could be a topping sign. We will just have to wait and see whether or not that is the actual case here. At least for the time to come, the long-term trend does not necessarily fail to continue to the upside. Even if we do break down, given enough time, short-term pullbacks open up the possibility of value. But watch that $3,960 region because it is crucial. If we rally from here, the $4,200 level could offer a bit of resistance as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we have seen recent resistance. This could be the top, but we cannot be sure quite yet. Breaking it would be a very strong sign to say the least. Jobs Beat Hits Sentiment as Sellers Test $51.07 Pivot – Silver Slips as Traders Reprice Fed-Cut Odds; Key Technical Levels in Focus – Spot silver edged lower on Thursday after the delayed September Non-Farm Payrolls report came in stronger than expected, softening hopes for a December rate cut and cooling appetite across precious metals. The print pushed traders to reassess the near-term policy outlook, with gold also holding flat and offering no support to silver’s tone late in the session. Silver is straddling a key Fibonacci level at $51.07, which is controlling near-term direction. If selling extends, bears will target the double 50% levels at $50.02 and $49.97, followed by the swing bottom at $49.36 and the 61.8% level at $48.93. The 50-day moving average at $48.16 remains the primary trend indicator controlling the broader uptrend. On the upside, a sustained move above $51.07 would indicate fresh buying interest and could open the path toward $54.39 and $54.49. Stronger labor data, steady yields, and only a modest dollar retreat keep the near-term tone bearish for silver. Until the dollar weakens more decisively or gold attracts stronger buying interest, silver is likely to stay under pressure while traders monitor price behavior around the key technical zone at $51.07.
On the day gold closed down $21.20 at $4056.50, and silver closed down $0.54 at $50.25.
On Friday the price of gold surprisingly trended higher, closing nicely in the green. The public, at least across our trading desk, has not been a big seller of gold bullion. They have been selling silver bullion on the other hand, which makes sense at these extraordinarily high prices. I don’t see much downside in gold, perhaps a few hundred dollars. But I’m worried about those investors who believe that $50.00 silver is just a good start. Taking a profit in silver and moving to the sidelines for now is sensible because I believe the downside now is greater than the upside.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold falls 1%, poised for weekly loss as US jobs data dims rate-cut hopes – Gold prices fell more than 1% on Friday and were set for a weekly decline after a robust U.S. jobs report dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, weighing on the non-yielding metal. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,039.79 per ounce by 1213 GMT. Bullion has dipped 0.9% this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.6% to $4,037.10 per ounce. “The prospect of further rate cuts has been somewhat doomed by decent labor market data that came out yesterday. I think that’s really the primary factor” weighing on gold, said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree. Thursday’s delayed U.S. jobs report offered a mixed view of the labor market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 jobs, compared with estimates of 50,000, but the jobless rate hitting a four-year high. The next jobs report is due only after the Fed’s December meeting, at which traders now see a 41% chance of a rate cut. Gold tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who opposed the Fed’s most recent rate cut, on Thursday cautioned against lowering borrowing costs further due to inflation. Meanwhile, physical gold demand across major Asian markets remained weak this week, as volatility in rates deterred potential buyers from making purchases. However, the fundamentals for gold remain intact and “factors such as slowing economic growth, expensive equity market valuation, geopolitical uncertainty, and diversification away from U.S. assets are likely to sustain robust investment demand and central-bank buying”, ANZ said in a note. “I do think we are at the floor for gold prices at the moment. Prices may temporarily go a little bit lower, but in general the path will be higher over the coming months,” WisdomTree’s Shah said. Spot silver fell 3.2% to $48.99 per ounce, platinum lost 1.4% to $1,490.87, and palladium was down 1.2% to $1,361.42.
On the day gold closed up $20.20 at $4076.70, and silver closed down $0.38 at $49.87.
Platinum closed up $7.60 at $1513.80, and palladium closed up $1.20 at $1383.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $4,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,100.00 and then at this week’s high of $4,134.30. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,018.10 and then at $4,000.00. December silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the record high of $54.415. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $47.00. First resistance is seen at $50.00 and then at the overnight high of $51.57. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $48.05 and then at $47.50.
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