Commentary for Friday, Dec 19, 2025 – Today gold closed up $21.90 at $4361.40, and silver closed up $2.26 at $66.85. Investors are still hoping for a Christmas surprise in gold but in the meantime this week’s pricing has been very quiet, gold closing today mildly in the green from last Friday. I would not read too much into this lack of buzz. It illustrates how busy everyone is figuring out who has been “naughty” and who has been “nice” for the holiday season. We will be closed on the 25th and 26th for Christmas. Wishing you all good health and a happy holiday season. Last Friday gold closed at $4300.10, and silver closed $61.36. On the week gold was higher by $61.30, and silver was higher by $5.55.
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On Monday the price of gold hovered, testing overhead resistance at $4345.00 before moving lower and finding support around $4320.00, closing only mildly in the green for the day. Still with a weaker dollar, and another quarter point rate cut by the FOMC last week expect higher prices and fresh record highs in early 2026. Especially if interest rates continue to move lower. In October of 2025 gold reached its all-time high of $4380.00. And today we are only about 1% from that landmark, which of course spurs bullish sentiment moving toward the holiday season.
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold gains 1% on safe-haven demand, softer dollar ahead of US jobs data – Gold climbed 1% on Monday to hover near a seven-week high, supported by a weaker dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts and safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions, while silver gained but held below Friday’s record high. Spot gold gained 0.9% to $4,338.29 an ounce by 1322 GMT, after rising more than 1% earlier in the session. Bullion hit its highest since October 21 on Friday. U.S. gold futures rose 1% to $4,372.80 an ounce. The dollar hovered near a two-month low reached last week, making greenback-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also edged lower. “Stronger demand from investors and three months of solid central bank demand, (as well as) investors starting to anticipate even lower rates in 2026”, are all supporting gold, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The U.S. Federal Reserve last week delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut in a divided vote, with further easing dependent on the labor market and inflation levels. Markets are currently pricing in two U.S. rate cuts next year, with investors eyeing this week’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on monetary policy. Non-yielding assets, such as gold, typically benefit in a lower interest rate environment. On the geopolitical front, Russia’s central bank said on Friday plans by the European Union to use Russian assets to extend a loan to Ukraine were illegal and that it reserved the right to employ all available means to protect its interests. Spot silver rose 3.1% to $63.9 per ounce. It hit a record high of $64.65 on Friday, before closing sharply lower. The metal has gained 121% this year, buoyed by tightening supplies and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list. “Silver benefits from the same factors supporting investment demand for gold (i.e. lower rates), but also should benefit from stronger industrial demand, due to the monetary and fiscal stimulus measures,” Staunovo said. Spot platinum rose 1.9% to $1,778.76, while palladium gained 4.1% to $1,547.75 per ounce.
On the day gold closed up $6.60 at $4306.70, and silver closed up $1.58 at $62.94.
On Tuesday the price of gold pushed to recent highs ($4330.00) as unemployment numbers suggest that the FOMC will continue to be dovish concerning interest rates. This bullish price move was reinforced by a weaker dollar which is now at two week lows. So, in early trading this pricing pattern looked like we were developing a picture which gives the Fed reason to further reduce interest rates, which is bullish for gold. But later in the day US economic data came in surprisingly lukewarm and gold finished the day slightly in the red. Today is an example of how quickly sentiment can change so it makes good investment sense to be prepared in advance.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi and Noel John) – Gold inches up as US unemployment rate rises in November – Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors analyzed a U.S. jobs report that showed the unemployment rate rose last month from September, reinforcing bets of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and sending the dollar index lower. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,316.67 per ounce, as of 09:07 a.m. ET (14:07 GMT). U.S. gold futures were up 0.3% at $4,347.10. The U.S. dollar fell to a two-month low, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also edged lower. U.S. job growth rebounded in November after nonfarm payrolls declined in October, but the unemployment rate was at 4.6% in the backdrop of economic uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy. A Reuters survey of economists had estimated an unemployment rate of 4.4%. “(The) data gives the Fed more reason to cut rates and if they cut rates, that’s bullish for gold … that’s the way the market’s interpreting it right now,” said RJO Futures senior market strategist Bob Haberkorn. Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee had announced a quarter-point rate cut, and Chair Jerome Powell’s accompanying comments were perceived as less hawkish than expected. Chances of a January rate cut went up to 26.6% after the data, from 24.4% earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. U.S. rate futures still expect two cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, pricing in 59 bps of easing next year. Non-yielding gold tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment. Investors now look ahead to November’s Consumer Price index, due on Thursday, and Personal Consumption Expenditures index, scheduled to release on Friday. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $63.58 an ounce, retreating from a record high of $64.65 on Friday. Platinum added 2.3% to $1,824.50, its highest level since September 2011, while palladium edged 0.8% up to $1,580.22, hitting a two-month high.
On the day gold closed down $2.20 at $4304.50, and silver closed down $0.24 at $62.70.
On Wednesday the bulls were happy as gold pushed to daily highs of $4340.00 (doubling in the past 2 years) and silver broke to the upside creating another fresh all time high at $66.17. Again, joining this bullish party is Bank of America and JPMorgan who now forecast $5000.00 gold in 2026. As usual I would like to see both gold and silver prices cool down, building a steadier and more reliable long term base…which may result in less volatility. But the public is buying physical bullion with both hands, likely encouraged by the increasing buzz, the momentum trade and safe haven demand. Across our trading desk there are, however, some big boy sellers who have been early buyers over the long term and are now taking profits and moving into cash.
Reuters (Polina Devitt) – Gold forecast to glitter again next year despite biggest gain since 1979 – Gold has made its biggest jump since the 1979 oil crisis in 2025 — with prices doubling in the last two years — a performance which might previously have meant forecasts of a big correction. Yet a growing investor pool and factors ranging from U.S. policy to war in Ukraine mean analysts at JP Morgan, Bank of America and consultancy Metals Focus now see bullion hitting $5,000 per troy ounce in 2026. Spot gold prices reached a record $4,381 in October, having never hit $3,000 before March, driven by demand from central banks and investors with new participants ranging from stablecoin issuer Tether to corporate treasurers. BofA strategist Michael Widmer said expectations of further gains or portfolio diversification are driving the buying, with impetus from U.S. fiscal deficits, efforts to narrow the U.S. current account deficit and a weak dollar policy. Philip Newman, managing director at Metals Focus, said further support stemmed from worries about U.S. Federal Reserve independence, tariff disputes and geopolitics including war in Ukraine and Russia’s interaction with NATO countries in Europe. For a fifth year running, central bank diversification of reserves from dollar-denominated assets should give a foundation for gold in 2026 as they buy when investor positioning is stretched, money rotates and prices fall, analysts said.
On the day gold closed up $43.00 at $4347.50, and silver closed up $3.54 at $66.24.
On Thursday the price of gold drifted lower reaching $4315.00, in early trading, but investors initially bought this weakness pushing prices back to a session high of $4340.00. Surprisingly, however, traders took profits and gold reversed direction closing mildly in the red for the day. Still, the overall pricing picture for our shiny friend remains positive as inflation cools and the possibility of further rate cuts increases. The bulls were spurred by Trump’s comment that the next Federal Reserve chair will support sharply lower interest rates. Insiders believe “that someone” will replace Powell, which will set the stage for record highs next year ($5000.00).
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold steadies as inflation data fuels rate cut bets – Gold prices held steady on Thursday, paring losses from earlier in the session, as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation figures reinforced expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,333.57 an ounce as of 1424 GMT. U.S. gold futures also eased 0.2% to $4,366.80. U.S. consumer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, data showed, falling short of the 3.1% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Futures on the federal funds rate factored in a slightly increased chance of the Federal Reserve trimming interest rates at its January meeting, after the data. “(The CPI) report was dollar negative and gold positive… and really, the Fed is going to remain in focus going into 2026 as the market attempts to figure out how many rate cuts are on tap for next year,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Non-yielding assets such as gold typically benefit in a lower-interest-rate environment. Traders expect 63 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, according to data compiled by LSEG. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the next Federal Reserve chair will be someone who supports sharply lower interest rates, with an announcement expected early next year. Meanwhile, spot silver fell 0.4% to $66.04 an ounce, retreating from a record high of $66.88 in the previous session. “Both gold and silver have seen magnanimous runs over the course of the last several weeks, so it’s not surprising to see the market go through a bit of profit taking or consolidation,” Meger said. Silver has outperformed gold this year, climbing 129% year-to-date on investment demand and concerns over a supply deficit. Platinum rose 0.7% to $1,924.05, a more than 17-year high, while palladium gained 2.9% to a nearly three-year high of $1,695.68. “The wave of price increases for precious metals has now spread from silver to platinum…the platinum price is being buoyed by strong demand from China,” Commerzbank said in a note.
On the day gold closed down $8.00 at $4339.50, and silver closed down $1.65 at $64.59.
On Friday gold closed quietly in the green in typical holiday trading. On the year the price of gold is higher by 65% and silver higher by 120%. So, it’s been a smoking year by any standard. And with lower interest rates expected next year the metals should continue to produce bullish buzz, and record prices. It is worth noting however that gold discounts in India are widening, meaning merchants are discounting to spur sales so it’s not all roses. And what about physical silver bullion at these elevated prices? It also remains a mixed bag because record prices prompt profit taking which introduces greater volatility. Still, there are reasons to be optimistic about the silver trade too. Like explosive demand for solar and electric vehicles. A sudden short squeeze spurred by speculative interest. And increased safe haven because it is cheap relative to gold.
Reuters (Sarah Qureshi) – Gold little changed on dollar strength but set for weekly gain – Gold prices were little changed on Friday as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields dented demand for the non-yielding metal, though bullion was still set for a weekly gain. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,338.37 an ounce as of 10:05 a.m. ET (1505 GMT) but was set to log a weekly gain of 0.9%. U.S. gold futures also gained 0.1% to $4,370.10. The U.S. dollar climbed to a more than one-week high, making dollar-priced bullion costlier for overseas buyers. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields also edged higher. “We’re seeing some reaction to a stronger U.S. dollar, higher yields along the curve, and a slightly firmer risk appetite since yesterday,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “Markets are consolidating below recent highs after the Fed’s December 25-basis-point cut.” Meanwhile, U.S. consumer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, below economists’ forecast of a 3.1% increase. Federal funds rate futures indicate 58 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. Spot silver added 1.5% to $66.38 an ounce, set to end the week 7.2% higher after hitting a record high of $66.88 on Wednesday. Silver has surged 128% this year, outpacing gold’s 65% rise, supported by strong investment demand and supply constraints. “Silver is driven by investor interest in ETFs … there is a lot of interest in call options, prompting market makers to hedge the underlying, what we call a bit of a gamma squeeze here,” Melek added. Meanwhile, gold discounts in India widened to a more than one-month high as record prices curbed wedding-season demand, while Chinese markdowns reached their steepest since late August 2020. Platinum added 2.3% to $1,960.41 after touching a more than 17-year high on Thursday. Palladium fell 0.1% to $1,693 after hitting a nearly three-year high earlier in the session. Both metals were set for weekly gains.
On the day gold closed up $21.90 at $4361.40, and silver closed up $2.26 at $66.85.
Platinum closed up $57.70 at $2013.20, and palladium closed up $11.10 at $1749.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,409.50 and then at $4,433.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,336.30 and then at this week’s low of $4,297.40. March silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $66.37 and then at the record high of $67.18. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $64.465 and then at Wednesday’s low of $63.72.
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