Commentary for Friday, May 30, 2025 – Today gold closed down $28.20 at $3288.90, and silver closed down $0.39 at $32.89. Today gold finished the week on a rather down note as investors and paper speculators remain confused over changes in Trump’s tariff policy. That’s the bad news; the good news is that the price of gold is supported to some degree as the Dollar Index cooled by more than a point these past 5 days. If you are a seasoned player in the bullion market, I don’t think you have much to worry about in the longer term. But uncertainty usually produces volatile pricing and fantastic stories which entertain but do not edify. Remembering the “zzz” next to the old comic characters comes to mind when I think about today’s trade and ask myself what is all this fuss is about? Last Friday gold closed at $3363.60 / silver at $33.44. On the week gold was down $74.70, and silver was down $0.55.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the US markets and CNI were closed for Memorial Day.
On Tuesday bullish sentiment weakened, stocks bounded higher, and gold tested support at ($3290.00). Consumer Confidence and risk appetite improved. But the bounce in price for gold was not impressive, suggesting further losses might be in the cards in the shorter term. With gold closing $71.30 higher last Friday and $65.00 lower this morning, price volatility is on the front burner. This is because the dollar has strengthened and there continues to be uncertainty over tariffs. But for now, I think most like gold and silver bullion especially in the longer term as interest rates decline. In the meantime, pay attention to support around $3200.00 while pondering the big question on everyone’s mind. Is the price of gold moving higher or lower? Again, investors are faced with a typical mixed bag while searching for an answer. Analysts expect higher inflation because of Trump’s spending policies, but bullish sentiment is stuck in neutral, waiting for interest rates to cooperate. Expect a typical sideways pricing trade for several months. Coming off a big three day holiday, our trading desk was typically quiet this morning but picked up considerably before the close of business.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Trump’s tariff reprieve pushes gold down for second straight session – “Gold prices declined for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, as risk sentiment improved following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on the European Union. Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,296.79 an ounce by 0901 ET (1301 GMT) after rising nearly 5% last week. U.S. gold futures lost 2.1% to $3,296.10. “There is a lot of volatility in gold prices as we keep having things change on the tariff front. Currently, the market may be under the impression that there is a deal to be had and that is pressuring gold,” Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, said. A weekend telephone call between Trump and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen gave ‘new impetus’ to trade talks, the EU said, after Trump dropped his threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union next month. The U.S. dollar strengthened, and stock index futures surged. A stronger dollar and rising risk sentiment weighed on gold, a dollar-denominated asset typically favored during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari called for keeping interest rates steady until there is more clarity on how higher tariffs affect inflation. The minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting are set to be released on Wednesday. Key U.S. economic data scheduled for release this week include the first-quarter GDP estimate, weekly unemployment claims, and the core PCE price index. “Our longer term bullish view on gold has not changed. As soon as the market believes that the Fed is going to cut (rates), gold will start doing well,” Melek added. Zero-yield bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver slipped 1.2% to $32.96 per ounce, platinum fell 0.2% to $1,082.63 and palladium eased 0.3% to $984.50.”
On the day gold closed down $64.50 at $3299.10, and silver closed down $0.29 at $33.15.
On Wednesday the price of gold seemed unusually quiet, trading between $3295.00 and $3325.00 with a small downturn to the lower end of today’s range. This might suggest that traders are expecting little fresh information today with the release of the latest FOMC thinking relative to interest rates. The Dollar Index has moved from 98.77 through 100.00 since Monday so this is also creating some headwind for the bulls. Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) – Gold will reach $4,000/oz, silver will hit $40/oz toward year-end as global turmoil resumes – B of A’s Blanch – “The current correction in precious metals prices is the result of lowered near-term geopolitical instability, but gold and silver will both post further gains in the second half of 2025, according to Francisco Blanch, head of global commodity and derivatives research at Bank of America Securities. “We’ve been calling for $3,500 gold for the first half of this year,” Blanch said in an interview with CNBC. “We got there, and we feel the market’s going through a correction right now that could last a few months. We’re still bullish longer term. We think longer term, maybe into the second half or into 2026, we’ll breach $4,000 per ounce, but we’re going through a correction because some of the extreme uncertainty that we’ve witnessed in recent months seems to be fading.” The public seems to be ignoring this trade today. The walk in store trade was very quiet and there is not even a silly rumor to laugh at!
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Work Off Froth – “The gold market was a bit positive in the early hours of Wednesday, as the market continues to look for momentum to the upside. Ultimately, the market is bullish, but we have a noisy area to deal with. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied just a bit during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to try to find some type of floor in this market. It’s interesting because, quite frankly, the gold market continues to find the $3,280 level as significant support. Breaking below that level then opens up the possibility of a drop down to the 50-day EMA, which is near the $3,200 level. Ultimately, I think at this point any dip will get bought into, but I also recognize that we could be in the midst of trying to form something along the lines of a bullish flag. On the upside, the $3,350 level is an area that I think if we can break above, then opens up the possibility of moving to the recent all-time high. I do think at this point, we are basically stuck between the $3,200 level at the bottom and the $3,500 level at the top. This is a market that has a lot of froth to work off. And I think that’s fine. Right now, we have a lot of questions about where the world is going. And that, of course, has a major influence on what happens with gold as a safety asset. And of course, a reaction to profligate spending by central banks. You can see that we’ve been in a massive uptrend since somewhere in 2018, although we had a two year hiatus where we just kind of went sideways. Ultimately, this is a market that I do think eventually reaches the highs again, but we may have some time to spend here churning in order to build out the necessary inertia or to get some type of external catalyst to get things going. Silver Continues to Threaten Resistance – The silver market was a bit calm in the early hours of Wednesday, but remained well-supported underneath, and in the same consolidation region. Silver looks as if it is only a matter of time before we start to see more momentum. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gone back and forth in rather choppy trading on Wednesday in the early hours, as we are trying to determine whether or not we are ready to break above the top of the consolidation area that we have been in for so long. The market has been stuck between the $32 level at the bottom and the $34 level at the top. If we could break above the $34 level, then it opens up a move toward the $35.50 level. That’s where we had seen massive selling pressure previously and taking out that candlestick really opens up the floodgates to a potential big move higher. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is going to continue to be a bit noisy, but given enough time, I do think that you have the possibility of that breakout. I just don’t know how that is going to play out, timeline-wise. And as you probably can see, it does look like the buyers have stepped in to try to at least support the market near the $33.00 level. And the last couple of pullbacks were a bit shallower. So that is a positive sign for those who are bullish. A breakdown below the 50 day EMA could change the short-term attitude of the market. But it would open up the possibility of a retest of $32.00, which really doesn’t change anything. So ultimately, I believe this is a market that is just going to continue to grind and try to sort out whether or not we can pick up the necessary inertia to go higher. So, a breakout obviously is something that you’ll be paying attention to, but I would also be paying attention to short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities as well.”
On the day gold closed down $5.50 at $3293.60, and silver closed down $0.15 at $33.00.
On Thursday the price of gold moved higher from the open and eventually turned choppy in the $3310.00 range as traders approached this market with caution trying to sort out the Supreme Court ruling which blocked most of Trump’s tariff policies. Still gold finished nicely in the green! If you believed the logic that claimed record high prices in gold were the result of safe haven demand as Trump rolled out his tariff policies, you would have expected gold prices to at least weaken this morning. This is not the case so analysts believe that Trump will appeal and win this argument without creating a constitutional crisis. According to the FOMC minutes yesterday the Fed is worried about our slowing economy as it faces the threat of inflation versus recession. This is not the usual dog and pony show, because the price of gold is holding up well all things considered. Eventually, however, the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates, which will set the stage for higher gold prices in the longer term. What gold and silver may do in the short term is a puzzle, keeping in mind that Powell has done a solid job to date and is not intimidated by Trump. So, I expect Jerome will use a Goldilocks approach – not too hot and not too cold relative to interest rates and this will encourage the notion that gold is heading lower. At the same time world tension and unsolvable problems in the Middle East will encourage safe haven demand. In the short term I expect a drift to the downside with a floor around $3100.00. All this to say that while the above commotion is surprising it is not the end of the world.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold holds firm as markets digest court roadblock on tariffs – “Gold prices rose in volatile trading on Thursday, aided by softer jobs data, while market participants also digested a court ruling that blocked most of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Spot gold reversed course to rise 0.9% to $3,319.22 an ounce, as of 09:37 ET (1337 GMT), after hitting its lowest since May 20 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were steady at $3,294.60. Data showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week. “Gold is rallying on a jump in weekly initial jobless claims which could be a harbinger of a weakening labor market, which would get the Federal Reserve to cut (interest rates) more quickly,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. According to released minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May 6-7 session, Fed officials acknowledged they could face “difficult tradeoffs” in coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment, an outlook buttressed by Fed staff projections of increased risks of a recession. Bullion is viewed as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, and it tends to perform well in low-interest rate environments, as it does not generate interest. Market focus is also on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data due Friday, which will be closely analyzed for signals on future U.S. monetary policy. “Equally impressive is gold’s sharp recovery overnight, (with the market) deciding that Trump will ultimately prevail against the trade court’s ruling,” Wong added. A U.S. trade court ruling that blocked most of Trump’s tariffs and found he had overstepped his authority triggered some relief on financial markets, while adding to the uncertainties weighing on the global economy. His administration immediately said it will appeal, and analysts said investors will remain cautious as the White House explores its legal avenues. Spot silver rose 0.9% to $33.28 an ounce; platinum was up 1% at $1,085.59 and palladium firmed 0.6% to $968.43.”
On the day gold closed up $23.50 at $3317.10, and silver closed up $0.28 at $33.28.
On Friday the price of gold traded between $3305.00 and $3275.00 in what looks like a mild downward drift. A disappointment after yesterday’s jump to the upside, but indicative of bearish factors pulling the price of gold lower in the short term. This trade continues to reflect uncertainty as investors are confused over tariff policy. Wednesday the court struck down Trump’s tariff policy as being too aggressive and Thursday they reinstated the same tariffs leaving savvy traders scratching their heads over just what happened. The bottom line, however, is that the gold bullish scenario is weakened but I believe only in the short term.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold ticks lower, markets digest tariff developments – “Gold prices slipped on Friday as the dollar edged higher and markets digested the latest tariff developments, while a softer inflation report kept hopes for a U.S. rate cut alive. Spot gold was down 0.6% at $3,297.09 an ounce as of 09:38 am ET (1338 GMT) and was down 1.8% so far this week. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% to $3,295.40. The dollar index rose 0.2%, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Thursday, a day after a U.S. trade court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing the duties and ordered an immediate block on them. “Gold at this point in time is pulling back off these recent highs and is in a consolidation period,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
“Gold is under slight pressure as we’re seeing a little lesser need for safe-haven but it does look like there is going to be significant push back from Trump and that will eventually help prices.”
On the data front, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index (PCE) was up 2.1% year on year in April versus a 2.2% forecast. After the report, traders continued to bet that the U.S. central bank will cut its target for short-term borrowing costs in September. Bullion, which thrives in a low-interest rate environment and is also used to hedge against inflation and uncertainty, hit a record high of $3,500.05 in April. Elsewhere, physical gold demand in India was subdued this week, as an uptick in domestic prices and a winding up of the wedding season kept buyers at bay. Spot silver fell 0.6% to $33.14, platinum eased 1.6% to $1,065.50 and palladium dropped 1% to $963.57.”
On the day gold closed down $28.20 at $3288.90, and silver closed down $0.39 at $32.89.
Platinum closed down $23.00 at $1051.70, and palladium closed down $6.00 at $961.30.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,200.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $3,347.00 and then at $3,375.00. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at this week’s low of $3,269.10. July silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.01. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $31.78. First resistance is seen at $33.75 and then at $34.015. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at this week’s low of $32.80.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.