Commentary for Friday, June 6, 2025 – Today gold closed down $28.00 at $3322.70, and silver closed up $0.34 at $36.03. Gold closed on the weak side today but to tell you the truth trying to figure out a general direction in the short term will create a headache. The public’s notion of whether the price of gold and silver will move higher or lower has reversed direction three times this week alone. So, all things being equal, it is best to keep a close eye on interest rates. They appear to be holding near steady this week, which suggests the price of gold will mellow out but hold the higher end of the recent range. Patience here might prove rewarding. There is little downside in gold because there is little chance of the Fed raising interest rates as the economy continues to slow. Last Friday gold closed at $3288.90 / silver at $33.89. On the week gold was up $33.80, and silver was higher by $2.14.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday gold was again off to the races, moving dramatically higher and closing in on $3380.00 in the early trade. The reasons are typical as the dollar weakens – the Dollar Index moving from 100.34 down to 98.66 since last Thursday. And safe haven demand gets a shot in the arm as relations between US and China deteriorate, each side accusing the other of violating tariff agreements. Still the dramatic climb to higher prices today almost seems like a food fight between superpowers. Why? With all the attention given to supposedly fresh news the price of gold still seems to be capped around $3400.00. And in fact, it has approached this level three times since April retreating on each occasion. So, is the price of gold “stuck” waiting for further dollar weakness? Or is safe haven demand growing as world tension increases? The answer here depends on the dollar. But my tea leaves suggest a weaker dollar and therefore higher gold prices over the longer term. This developing trend however may not be fully recognized until next year.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Surges as Safe-Haven Demand Builds on Tariffs and Geopolitical Tensions – “Gold prices rallied sharply on Monday, breaking above key resistance at $3310.48 and eyeing the next upside target at $3366.02. A breach of that level could open the door to $3435.06, just below the all-time high of $3500.20. The surge comes as traders pile into safe-haven assets, driven by a cocktail of geopolitical tension, trade policy risks, and market unease ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. Ongoing U.S.-China Trade Strain Fuels Gold Bid – Gold’s strength was underpinned by renewed trade hostilities between the U.S. and China. President Trump announced plans to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, reigniting fears of a trade war after Beijing hit back at allegations of violating mineral export agreements. With both sides accusing each other of breaching the Geneva trade accord, market participants are bracing for prolonged trade disruptions. The uncertainty has put upward pressure on gold and downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, which dropped 0.6% against a basket of currencies. Geopolitical Risks in Europe Add to Safe-Haven Flows – Tensions between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to gold’s appeal. Intensified military actions from both sides – just before scheduled peace talks in Istanbul – have amplified risk-off sentiment. The flight to safety has pushed gold above a one-week high, as investors look to hedge against broader geopolitical fallout. Bond markets also reflected the unease, with the U.S. 10-year yield ticking up to 4.434%, while the 30-year yield rose more than 3 basis points to 4.967%, highlighting inflation and policy uncertainty. Dollar Weakness and Policy Risk Support Bullion – Beyond trade and war concerns, the dollar’s recent softness has reinforced gold’s upside. The greenback has surrendered gains from the previous week, weighed down by tariff-related stagflation fears and concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook. The Commerce Ministry of China called the tariff accusations “groundless,” vowing countermeasures, which further dented sentiment around the dollar. A weaker dollar typically benefits gold by making it cheaper for non-dollar holders. Powell Speech Looms Large for Rate Outlook and Gold Prices Forecast – All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, set to speak today at 1:00 PM ET. Markets expect Powell to stick with a “wait-and-see” stance, maintaining the 4.25%–4.50% interest rate range. However, given Trump’s pressure for cuts and the potential for weak jobs data later this week, traders will be scrutinizing any hints of dovish pivot. Equity markets are already under pressure – S&P futures are down 0.53% – and a cautious Powell could further drive gold demand. Bullish Outlook for Gold Prices – With tariff tensions escalating, safe-haven flows intensifying, and Fed flexibility in question, the near-term outlook for gold remains bullish. A breakout above $3366.02 could set the stage for a test of $3435.06, especially if Powell delivers a cautious tone or jobs data disappoints. Traders should monitor dollar movement and rate expectations closely, as both will shape gold prices projections in the sessions ahead.”
On the day gold closed up $81.70 at $3370.60, and silver closed up $1.67 at $34.56.
On Tuesday gold drifted lower from the open touching $3335.00 is what appears to be a reassessment of yesterday’s big jump to the upside. So, both the bulls and bears continue to fight for short term domination based on changes in tariff perception and dollar strength. Today gold retreated to some degree reacting to a stronger dollar and typical profit taking. How long this pricing picture will hold up is anyone’s guess because tariffs have now turned into a kind of political football. And I expect overhead resistance in the price of gold to continue, perhaps even get stronger if interest rates do not begin to weaken. There is a great deal of uncertainty in this current trade, so investor caution is a good idea. And I have been saying for some time now that taking a bit of profit at these near record prices makes a lot of sense.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold retreats from near four-week high as dollar gains; investors stay cautious – “Gold pulled back on Tuesday after nearing a four-week high earlier in the session, as a rebound in the dollar and profit-taking added pressure, while investors remained cautious amid ever-changing U.S. trade policies. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,356.75 an ounce as of 1125 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 8 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures eased 0.5% to $3,381.30. The dollar rose from an over-a-month low hit earlier in the session, making gold costlier for foreign buyers. “Today, the dollar trades a tad stronger ahead of key US economic data and these developments are the main reason why we are seeing some light profit following yesterday’s strong gain,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Investors will be closely watching a likely call this week between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, just days after Trump accused China of breaching an agreement to reduce tariffs and trade restrictions. The European Commission said on Monday it would push the U.S. to reduce or eliminate tariffs, despite Trump’s plan to double steel and aluminum duties to 50%. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is urging countries to submit their best trade offers by Wednesday, aiming to accelerate talks ahead of a five-week deadline, according to a draft letter seen by Reuters. The OECD said on Tuesday the global economy was on course to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, trimming March estimates for growth of 3.1% this year and 3.0% next year. Investors’ focus this week will also be on U.S. non-farm payrolls due on Friday and speeches from a slew of Federal Reserve policymakers for clues on the interest rate trajectory. Zero-yielding bullion tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Spot silver fell 1.5% to $34.26 an ounce, platinum lost 0.6% to $1,056.70, while palladium was up 0.5% at $993.63.”
On the day gold closed down $20.40 at $3350.20, and silver closed down $0.06 at $34.50.
On Wednesday the price of gold was up as much as $25.00 in the early trade. Continuing to support a bullish scenario over tariff uncertainty. Safe haven demand remains an important part of this pricing model and is supported by Trump as he now threatens China because they are not rolling over as easily as he had expected. This “back and forth” tariff detente (a French word meaning a relaxing of tensions between countries) is responsible for supporting higher gold prices because it creates uncertainty. Just as important, however, in the pricing of gold are interest rates. They are moving lower but not quickly, which caps the price of gold in the short term. Investors are stuck in the middle of these opposing forces waiting to see which trend will dominate. I don’t think anyone could have foreseen this clash of forces turning into a long term game a year or two ago. But it has and so patience will be necessary.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel and Anushree Ashish Mukerjee) – Gold holds ground as jobs data offsets safe-haven demand – “Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as stronger U.S. jobs data countered safe-haven demand driven by simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Spot gold was steady at $3,349.19 an ounce, as of 1145 GMT. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $3,373.10. “U.S. labor data gave markets a bit of relief yesterday, causing a small dip in gold prices. However, tensions between the U.S. and China are still keeping risks high and gold prices supported,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Job openings in the U.S. rose in April, though layoffs surged to their highest level in nine months, economic data showed, hinting at softening labor market conditions. Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping is tough and “extremely hard to make a deal with,” days after the U.S. President accused China of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions. Washington doubled its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Wednesday, the same day the Trump administration expects trading partners to make “best offers” to avoid other punishing import levies from taking effect in early July. The focus will be on Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data for more cues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Federal Reserve’s policy path. Fed officials have reiterated their cautious policy stance, citing risks from trade tensions and economic uncertainty. “If the data is stronger than expected, interest rate cut expectations are likely to wane, which would weigh on the gold price,” said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. “We see gold trading in a range between $3,300 and $3,400 per troy ounce in the short term.” Gold, a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.5% to $34.32 an ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $1,085.50 and palladium lost 0.5% to $1,005.11.”
On the day gold closed up $23.30 at $3373.50, and silver closed up $0.02 at $34.52.
On Thursday the price of gold surged on the open ($3400.00) but traders sold this rally, as the market reversed direction, tested lows on the day and finished in the red. Silver reached its highest level since early 2012. These events have sparked fresh interest and are likely the result of two factors. First, jobless claims suggest the labor market is losing momentum. The thinking here is that this data may prompt the FOMC to lower interest rates sooner than later, attempting to avoid recession. Second, the European Central Bank cut interest rates citing economic uncertainty and waning inflation pressures. The President also said that the national debt ceiling should be eliminated, increasing the drama factor. And perhaps creating the minor rumor that some sort of gold/silver super cycle is in the making. I prefer to link higher prices in gold and silver to lower US interest rates. This reduces drama and political hyperbole. Investors should be patient, waiting for interest rates to move lower before considering higher prices in the metals. The end of the world is not nigh (an old English word or near). Ignore the political rhetoric and keep your eye on the ball – it has always been about interest rates. As far as the walk in trade is concerned the store was jammed all day, so the public is in liquidation mode.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee and Brijesh Patel) – Gold rises as traders await US data; silver hits over 13-year high – “Gold held its ground on Thursday as investors looked forward to U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later this week to assess the U.S. interest rate path, while silver prices rose above the key $35 per ounce level for the first time since October 2012. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,395.29 an ounce, as of 1147 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.6% to $3,419.70. “I would say that the path of least resistance remains to the upside, despite today’s sort of flat mode for gold trading. But I think this is more due to traders being in wait-and-see mode ahead of non-farm payrolls,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades. Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report revealed U.S. private payrolls increased far less than expected in May. U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. “I think that a weakening in the U.S. labor market will increase bets on a dovish Fed, so on the Fed cutting interest rates, (which) would be positive for gold,” Evangelista added. Gold, a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Meanwhile, spot silver jumped 2.5% to $35.83 per ounce, its highest level since February 2012. Silver’s “recent underperformance against gold because of economic concerns, given that 70% of silver usage is industrial, it looks that there could be some ratio trading going on now that it has dipped below the 100 level,” StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said. The gold-silver ratio, denoting how many ounces of silver one ounce of gold can buy, is used by the market to gauge future trends as it indicates silver’s current performance against its historical correlation with gold. Platinum rose 3.6% to $1,123.88, its highest level since March 2022, and palladium was up 1.8% at $1,018.38. “Tangible assets with limited supply such as gold, silver, platinum and copper should be part of a broad portfolio in order to mitigate any economic fallout from geopolitical events, government mismanagement of debt and rising inflation threat” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Trump on Wednesday said the nation’s debt ceiling should be eliminated, saying he agreed with Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren’s view on the subject.”
On the day gold closed down $22.80 at $3350.70, and silver closed up $1.17 at $35.69.
On Friday the price of gold opened nearly unchanged but news that the Federal Reserve may wait until September to cut interest rates weakened today’s trade. Gold then tested support at $3320.00 but this looks almost like a non-event with gold holding above $3300.00. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not sold on higher gold prices in the short to middle term. But I do not think there is much downside here because the tariff and interest rate picture remains unstable. The technical picture for gold and silver also remains solid. A plus for bullish sentiment. Personally, it makes sense to wait for Trump’s next tariff move and decide how this will influence short term prices. Stocks seem to be stabilizing which is good for “risk off” sentiment. This may seem contrary to bullish gold sentiment, but today’s investors are nuanced and savvy. The old days of gold or silver bulls being primary driving forces in these markets are over. Most investors in gold or silver bullion today see the metals as an integral part of a balanced investment strategy.
Reuters (Ashtha Shivaprasad and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold nearly steady as strong US jobs data offsets geopolitical jitters – Gold prices were little changed on Friday as a stronger-than-expected jobs report countered support from lingering geopolitical uncertainty, while silver touched its highest since 2012. Spot gold edged 0.1% higher at $3,356.29 an ounce, as of 9:11 a.m. ET (1311 GMT) and rose 2.1% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.1% to $3,379.30. A Labor Department report showed non-farm payrolls increased 139,000 in May, compared with estimates for a rise of 130,000, according to economists polled by Reuters. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, in-line with estimates. Data came in line with estimates, which is a negative for gold as the data suggests that the Fed is going to stay on hold for a little while, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Federal Reserve policymakers are seen as waiting until September to cut rates, with just one more cut in view by December, based on trading in short-term interest-rate futures, which also showed traders backing away from bets that would pay off if the Fed delivered a third rate cut by year’s end. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. But higher rates reduce the appeal of bullion as it yields no interest. On trade policy front there was little clarity after the highly anticipated call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday. “These are very difficult negotiations and they’re not going to be solved just on the phone. If the tariff headlines become negative, that’s bullish for gold,” Meir added. Spot silver rose 0.3% to $36.25, after hitting a more than 13-year high earlier. Gains in silver “looks like it was driven by speculative flows seeing it way too cheap versus gold, the break above the $35/oz mark amplified the move,” said Giovanni Staunovo, UBS analyst. Platinum rose 3.4% to $1,168.60, highest level since March 2022, while palladium was up 2.7% at $1,033.19. Both the metals headed for weekly gains.”
On the day gold closed down $28.00 at $3322.70, and silver closed up $0.34 at $36.03.
Platinum closed up $33.00 at $1166.70, and palladium closed up $54.10 at $1060.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, August gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the May high of $3,477.30. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at $3,400.00 and then at this week’s high of $3,427.70. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $3,362.30 and then at $3,350.00. July silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage after seeing a bullish upside “breakout” from a trading range on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $37.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $34.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $36.46 and then at $36.75. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $35.755 and then at $35.00.”
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