Commentary for March, 20, 2026 – Today gold closed down $30.30 at $4570.40, and silver closed down $1.54 at $69.36. In a blink of the eye this market goes from a bullish “how high can we go” to a bearish “how low can we go” over what amounts to political comments by the outgoing FOMC Chief relative to interest rates on the short term. This of course leaves the new Chief Kevin Warsh with a plate of scrambled eggs as he tries to calm a confused market. While this latest curve ball seems like the end of the world it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise because it exposes the worst kind of political partisanship in Washinton. In the meantime, we are subject to a conjured up criminal investigation regarding supposedly false statements made to Congress by Powell over a building renovation which happened in 2025. This is political catnip which has created significant pricing volatility in gold and silver. Today gold at $4600.00 is about 18% below its all-time high of $5600.00 and silver at $70.00 is about 40% below its all-time high of $120.00. Investors are buying this dip with both hands – a bullish plus, but this bearish slide to the downside may continue until interest rates move lower. Last Friday gold closed at $5052.50, and silver closed at $80.91. On the week gold was down by $482.10, and silver was down by $11.55.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. The present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
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On Monday gold trended lower, testing support around $4980.00, and closing in the red for the day. But again, investors are dealing with strong crosswinds, like higher oil prices, and world debt which supports rising inflation. At the same time the dollar looks like it has begun to weaken, supporting gold’s current trading range, after back to back weekly losses. So now, there are many investors sitting on the sidelines, many of whom are expecting $6000.00 gold to be right around the corner, according to Bob Herkorn (RJO Futures). Which makes sense if you consider the broader implications of rising Middle East tension. Keep in mind that there are important data points being released this week which could push the price of gold either way. So, keep your seat belt fastened. And keep your Plan B close at hand, in case things go sideways.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold steady as conflict-driven inflation fears counter dollar softness – Gold prices were little changed on Monday, as concerns that inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict could keep interest rates higher for longer outweighed support from a softer dollar and safe‑haven demand. Spot gold held steady at $5,025.16 per ounce, by 09:22 a.m. ET (1322 GMT), after hitting its lowest level since February 19 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.6% to $5,031.50. The dollar pulled back from a 10-month peak, making dollar‑priced bullion more attractive to holders of other currencies. “With higher oil prices comes higher inflation. If we do have higher inflation, central banks are not going to be as motivated as they were six months ago to cut rates, which is negative for gold prices,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “But I’m still very bullish on gold, given what’s happening around the world. A lot of money is still on the sidelines waiting to enter this market, and I’m still anticipating $6,000/oz gold.” Gold, typically an inflation and uncertainty hedge, tends to underperform in high-rate environments because the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset rises. Oil prices fell on Monday amid attacks on Gulf oil production and U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for global efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz. Japan and Australia said they were not planning to send navy vessels to escort ships through the vital waterway. Also, on the market’s radar this week are the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, and weekly U.S. jobless claims numbers. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Data since the last meeting showed little change in the underlying outlook, and the Fed is transitioning to a new leader, Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump.
On the day gold closed down $58.50 at $4994.00, and silver closed down $0.65 at $80.26.
(Ernest Hoffman) – Retail traders using leveraged ETFs were a major driver of January’s dramatic gold and silver selloff – The BIS analysts said that leveraged silver ETFs contributed to the turmoil through their amplification mechanics. “To maintain fixed daily leverage, these funds rebalance each day,” they noted. “When prices rise, they buy the underlying asset (often via silver futures) to restore target leverage and when prices fall, they sell the underlying asset. This predictable, momentum-like trading creates feedback loops that reinforce prevailing trends and can distort prices”. The authors wrote that the “footprint of leveraged ETFs’ destabilizing trading” grew alongside the retail-driven exuberance that consumed precious metals markets in the run-up to January’s dramatic selloff. “The leverage rebalancing multiplier, a summary measure of the market impact of leveraged ETFs’ daily rebalancing flows, doubled over the course of 2025”. “The share of ETFs in the market followed similar dynamics. This indicates that leveraged ETF activity became a larger part of the market and intensified price trends”. Then, once the rout was underway, margin-triggered liquidations further amplified the selloff.
On Tuesday gold closed up $7.00 at $5001.00, and silver closed down $0.73 at $79.53.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved to session lows in early trading, testing support at $4840.00 so momentum players are encouraging this bearish dip. As gold weakened it is counterintuitive that inflation is heating up but so goes professional perception during times of stress. Longer term investors in bullion will likely take advantage of this downward drift but it may take time as they wait for a better deal. Neils Christensen (Kitco) – “The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.7% in February, following January’s 0.3% increase, the U.S. Labor Department announced on Wednesday. The latest inflation data was hotter than expected, as economists had been looking for a 0.3% increase. Over the last 12 months, headline wholesale inflation jumped 3.4%, the report said. This marks the largest 12-month advance since February 2025, when prices also rose 3.4%.” So, is it time to jump out the window? Maybe but there is the possibility that steep drops in gold producing even an unstable market may become a part of the pricing picture. Still, there are geopolitical tensions which should support possible lower prices in both gold and silver. And the US must once again learn that taking a hard line with Iranian leaders sounds good but is a difficult political situation to manage. One that will further escalate tensions worldwide. At this point in the physical market across our trading desk investors are selling silver and gold but most remain sidelined waiting for this market so shake out.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold steady as markets track Iran tensions, await Fed decision – Gold prices held near steady on Tuesday, as market participants monitored the intensifying Iran conflict and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. Spot gold was little changed at $5,004.71 per ounce by 2:03 p.m. ET (1803 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.1% higher at $5,008.20. The gold market reflected “a balancing act” between safe-haven demand on heightened geopolitical uncertainty and bearish pressures from inflation, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. “I think gold will probably make new record highs, but I suspect it won’t be anytime soon. I think the bulls have just run out of gas,” he added. Bullion is considered a safe asset during periods of uncertainty and inflation but becomes less attractive in a high-rate environment as it yields no interest. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week, has led to severe disruption of energy trade and stoked fears of a spike in inflation. Israel claimed on Tuesday it killed Iran’s security chief, while a senior Iranian official said the new supreme leader had rejected de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediaries, demanding Israel and the U.S. first be “brought to their knees.” International oil prices rose more than 2% for the day. The U.S. Fed is expected to announce its decision on interest rates on Wednesday, and investors expect the central bank will keep rates steady. Commerzbank, in a note, said that the Fed meeting is unlikely to provide impetus to gold, as uncertainty surrounding the duration of the war and the disruption to oil supplies is likely to make the U.S. central bank cautious. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.5% to $79.55 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.6% to $2,129.53 and palladium rose 0.7% to $1,609.70.
On the day gold closed down $111.10 at $4889.90, and silver closed down $2.29 at $77.24.
On Thursday the price of gold collapsed, moving from $4850.00 through $4550.00, so this looks like an unstable collapse as traders deal with comments made yesterday by Powell which suggest that higher yields are right around the corner. I would step aside from this market and wait for some stability. But keep in mind that insiders, given the current state of geopolitical tension, will be patiently looking for a reversal in prices. The 200 Day Moving Average for gold today is $4062.63, and the 200 Day Moving Average of silver is $56.00. Keep these numbers in mind when trying to get a handle on whether this bearish drop will continue or eventually be bought by paper speculators. Good luck, this is a tough call even for professional traders.
Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) – “Gold and silver prices are posting big losses and hit six-week lows in early U.S. trading Thursday. The metals are getting hammered as traders worry about the prospects of problematic inflation, keeping central banks’ monetary policies tighter. Such a scenario would not only support the U.S. dollar but also likely limit consumer and commercial demand for gold and silver. April gold was last down $226.60 at $4,669.20. May silver prices were down $6.852 at $70.735. Metals markets punished amid war in Middle East. Gold futures prices are down over $900 an ounce from the late-January record high. Silver prices are down over $50 an ounce from their record high scored in late January. Copper gave up its gains for this year as the worsening war in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher and increased the risk of damage to the global economy. There were broad declines on the London Metal Exchange after Iran and Israel traded strikes on energy facilities in the Middle East. Copper, which started this year in bullish form and reached an all-time high in late January, has shed more than 9% this month. FOMC leaves U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected. Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday left U.S. interest rates unchanged, as fully expected by the marketplace. The FOMC said it expects one interest rate cut this year due to increased uncertainty from the war in the Middle East. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that progress in reducing inflation is needed in order to resume lowering rates, and Fed officials raised their outlook for inflation in 2026 to 2.7% annually. Powell said in his press conference that he has no intention of resigning as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors until an investigation of the Fed by the Department of Justice has concluded. FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Plunges on Higher Yields – Gold is suffering at the hands of the bond markets in the US on Thursday, as yields rise again. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped lower to kick off the session on Thursday and at this point in time it just looks like it’s going to fall apart. The price action has to be something that traders are concerned about at the moment. That being said, we do have a scenario where there is a lot of support at the $4600 level, and I would be watching that very closely. I’d also watch the US 10-year yield as it approaches 4.3% because if it breaks above there, it’s probably going to really bash gold. Giving up $4600 for me would be a horrific sign and ultimately, I think you need to watch whether or not that happens. If we bounce from here and the yield in the 10-year drops away from the 4.3% level, that could be good for gold. Fed Reaction and Rising Rates – This is mainly in reaction to the Federal Reserve press conference yesterday, which, as per usual, Jerome Powell made a mess of it and certainly did not bring confidence to the market. So, you have to believe at this point in time market participants are starting to worry about those rates rising, which typically works against gold, as it is cheaper to hold paper (or electronic notes) than it is to store metal in a warehouse somewhere. But we also have geopolitics working for it, so we’ll just have to see how that plays out. Over the next couple of days, we should find out whether or not this trend can hold or did we just make a massive double top and start spinning out of control to the downside, at least for the time being. Silver Drops to Test Support Area – Silver plunges to test support early on Thursday as yields continue to rise in the US. This could end up being a big issue for this market. Technical Analysis – The silver market has fallen after gapping lower on Thursday to test the crucial $70 level. The $70 level is an area that a lot of people will be watching as it is the bottom of the consolidation that we have been in for a couple of months now. If we break down below the $70 level again, we are looking at a situation where traders will be pondering whether or not we can get down to the 200-day EMA, currently sitting just below the $62 level. This is an area that I think needs to hold to build confidence if we do break down from here.
On the day gold closed down $289.20 at $4600.70, and silver closed down $6.34 at $70.90.
On Friday the price of gold drifted lower as even strong safe haven buying yesterday did not refresh bullish sentiment. So, the question at this point is has gold run out of gas? Well, certain unanswered questions have not helped bullish sentiment. But it’s an overreaction to claim it is time to fold your gold tent and wait for geopolitical tension to push prices to new highs. Tensions worldwide are crazy with the Iran/Israel war now in its third week and even Trump worried about a fractured Middle East spurring terrorism. My feeling is that while gold may have further downside it will not fall out of bed. And sooner or later the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates. The tricky part here is that the US economy is solid, which provides the FOMC with options. First, there is time to figure out who is running the interest rate show. Second, and more importantly, a solid US economy allows the Fed to keep interest rates at current levels, fighting inflation but discouraging higher gold prices. Still, I would not be surprised to see record highs in gold and silver before the end of this year. But keep your seat belt fastened and expect volatility.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold steady as markets track Iran tensions, await Fed decision – Gold prices held near steady on Tuesday, as market participants monitored the intensifying Iran conflict and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. Spot gold was little changed at $5,004.71 per ounce by 2:03 p.m. ET (1803 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.1% higher at $5,008.20. The gold market reflected “a balancing act” between safe-haven demand on heightened geopolitical uncertainty and bearish pressures from inflation, said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. “I think gold will probably make new record highs, but I suspect it won’t be anytime soon. I think the bulls have just run out of gas,” he added. Bullion is considered a safe asset during periods of uncertainty and inflation but becomes less attractive in a high-rate environment as it yields no interest. The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week, has led to severe disruption of energy trade and stoked fears of a spike in inflation. Israel claimed on Tuesday it killed Iran’s security chief, while a senior Iranian official said the new supreme leader had rejected de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediaries, demanding Israel and the U.S. first be “brought to their knees.” International oil prices rose more than 2% for the day. The U.S. Fed is expected to announce its decision on interest rates on Wednesday, and investors expect the central bank will keep rates steady. Commerzbank, in a note, said that the Fed meeting is unlikely to provide impetus to gold, as uncertainty surrounding the duration of the war and the disruption to oil supplies is likely to make the U.S. central bank cautious. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.5% to $79.55 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.6% to $2,129.53 and palladium rose 0.7% to $1,609.70.
On the day gold closed down $30.30 at $4570.40, and silver closed down $1.54 at $69.36.
Platinum closed up $31.40 at $1970.60, palladium closed down $9.80 at $1424.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the February low of $4,423.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,738.20 and then at $4,800.00. First support is seen at $4,600.00 and then at this week’s low of $4,505.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the February low of $64.66. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $74.62 and then at $75.00. Next support is seen at $70.00 and then at $67.50.
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