Commentary for Friday, Nov 26, 2025 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $26.00 at $4165.20, and silver closed up $1.99 at $52.92. It looks like investors are growing even more optimistic about the physical gold and silver market going into this short Thanksgiving week. The reasoning being that they are expecting interest rates to trend lower through 2026. It is possible that the FOMC will not lower rates a second time this year, fearing inflation. But even under this scenario world demand created over rising geopolitical tension will likely underpin the current pricing structure. We will be closed on Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th. Wishing you all a great Thanksgiving! Last Friday gold closed at $4076.70 / silver at $49.87. On the week gold was higher by $88.50, and silver was higher by $3.05.
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On Monday the price of gold moved higher, reaching $4111.00 on growing expectations that the FOMC will cut interest rates by Christmas. Most traders, however, expect this week to be on the quiet side as Thanksgiving is a national holiday and many private businesses are also closed. Still, gold did close nicely in the green today, and the aftermarket surge suggests that higher prices are in the making before Christmas. Our offices will be closed Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th. Wishing you all a Happy Thanksgiving…treat yourself to an extra piece of pie!
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold rises on stronger Fed rate cut bets, weaker dollar – Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month and a weaker dollar. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,081.52 per ounce, as of 09:12 a.m. ET (1412 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery were flat at $4,079.30 per ounce. The dollar index inched lower, making dollar-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies. “The market is increasingly getting convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates in December,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. “A combination of lower rate (expectations) and a weaker U.S. dollar has helped gold in this environment,” Melek added. New York Fed President John Williams on Friday said U.S. interest rates could fall “in the near term” without putting the Fed’s inflation goal at risk, while helping guard against a slide in the job market. Bets of a rate cut next month stand at 76%, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments, and during geopolitical instability. Investors are looking out for key economic data which were delayed due to the government shutdown, including U.S. retail sales, jobless claims and producer price figures due later this week. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine continued talks on Monday to craft an acceptable plan to end the war with Russia, after agreeing to revise an earlier U.S. proposal that many viewed as overly favorable to Moscow. “With the Fed debate taking more headlines and geopolitical swings, especially vis-à-vis Ukraine, (gold) is still likely to catch a bid but in our view, it remains range bound between $4,000 and $4,100,” Rhona O’Connell, an analyst at StoneX, said in a note. Spot silver added 0.5% at $50.24 per ounce, platinum rose 1.1% to $1,528.01, while palladium rose 0.8% to $1,385.85.
On the day gold closed up $15.20 at $4091.90, and silver closed up $0.43 at $50.30.
On Tuesday morning the price of gold bounced between $4115.00 and $4150.00, with strong underlying strength going into the short trading week of Thanksgiving. My original guess was that most paper traders are heading home to celebrate the holiday, leading to weaker prices. But today’s $60.00 jump to the upside proved me wrong. Still, I’m not worried about substantial downside as world demand for bullion is solid. Especially as interest rates trend lower. Investors should watch gold’s 50 DMA ($3978.00), for any weakness might suggest bearish trouble.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Grind Back and Forth on Tuesday – Gold opens with a gap higher as thin holiday volume, contract rollover, and a developing triangle pattern leave the market in a holding phase. Key levels at $4,200 and the 50-day EMA guide whether continuation or pullback emerges. The gold market gapped higher to kick off the trading session here on Tuesday as it looks like we are maybe trying to form some type of compression via a triangle. We will just have to wait and see. But this is a market that has been a massive move, as I’m sure you’re aware of, and now has been basically struggling with volume. So, here’s the question: is this going to end up being a consolidation area and continuation, or do we break down? I think we’ll find that out fairly soon. It is worth noting that on Wednesday, we roll over from December to February. So, there might be some noise in the market, but this week is going to be a little bit funky anyway because Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States, which will shut down the market for quite a bit of time during the Thursday session and keep a lot of volume out of it as well. Friday will probably be pretty thin as well. Most Americans do not go back to work. And even Wednesday might be a little bit quiet. You will probably see a lot of positioning to get into the new contract, and Wednesday could just fall apart as far as momentum pretty quickly. So, I am not looking for much here. I think we will stay in this pattern for the next couple of days. But what I’m watching is the $4,200 level. If we can break above there with any type of strength and gusto, then I think gold goes looking to the highs again. If we break down below the 50-day EMA, which is at $3,978, that is a sign that maybe we will break down below $3,950. I would consider that confirmation of a significant pullback. We will just have to wait and see. But as things stand right now, it is pretty neutral with an underlying strong bullish tone. Silver Continues to See Buyers – Silver shows heightened volatility as holiday-thinned volume, a developing double-top, and key support levels create a challenging technical environment. Buyers remain in control for now, but weakening momentum leaves the market vulnerable to deeper pressure. The silver market gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Tuesday as the $51.50 level was tested, which is a barrier. At this point, a lot of chopping is waiting to happen. We are rolling over into the March contract during the Wednesday session, and this week includes the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, which will have a significant impact on the futures market. On Friday, a lot of people in the United States will not be working, so volume is going to drop even further. Double-Top Concerns and Key Levels – Speaking of volume, what is interesting here is that we are in a double top forming a situation, and it is worth noting that volume was much lower on the second attempt to break out above $54 than on the first attempt. With that being said, you have to watch the uptrend line, the $50 level, the 50-day EMA, and the $46.50 level. All of those could be potential areas to bounce. However, if we were to break through all that, it would mark the end of the uptrend, as it would confirm the double top with decreasing volume. This is going to be a very interesting place and a very interesting market to watch. As things stand right now, you have to believe that the buyers are still in control, but things are getting a little rough for them. We will see if they can hang on. This is a very dangerous market. Quite frankly, if you are looking to play the precious metals game, gold is probably a little safer at this juncture.
On the day gold closed up $47.30 at $4139.20, and silver closed up $0.63 at $50.93.
On Wednesday the price of gold was choppy, trading between $4170.00 and $4145.00. It’s hard to argue with success and gold at these levels is surely successful. But it is smart to remember that both gold and silver are “crowded trades” meaning there is a lot of attention and commentary being generated each day. And even with all this excitement gold’s current price is down about 6% from all-time highs of $4360.00. To me this drop in price is healthy and may set the stage for higher prices next year. But there are some who believe that gold still offers tough overhead resistance and it will take fresh bullish news for prices to break to the upside.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Noel John) – Gold climbs to over one-week peak as hopes of Fed rate cut rises – Gold prices hovered near an over one-week high on Wednesday, after expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next month kept non-yielding bullion a favored asset. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,144.06 per ounce at 9:25 a.m. ET (1425 GMT), after hitting its highest since November 14 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were flat at $4,140.30 per ounce. “The focus has shifted away from the dollar and towards a decrease in interest rates in December,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir, noting gold’s rise despite the dollar index being up 0.2%. Rate cut bets “are helping gold a bit, as is the talk that they might nominate a Fed chairman soon and the front runner is Kevin Hassett from the Economic Advisory Committee of the president.” Hassett, like U.S. President Donald Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Gold, a non-yielding asset which thrives in a low-interest rate environment, has gotten an additional boost from this news. Traders see an 83% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, compared to 30% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid lingering economic uncertainty. U.S. consumer confidence also weakened in November as households grew more concerned about jobs and their financial outlook. The data releases followed a series of recent dovish comments from Fed policymakers. The outlook for gold remains positive, with most research banks seeing gold above $4,000 per ounce in 2026. Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 an ounce from $4,000, citing stabilizing investor flows and persistent central bank demand. Spot silver rose 1.5% to $52.19 per ounce, platinum was up 0.6% at $1,562.96, while palladium added 0.7% to $1,407.50.
On the day gold closed up $26.00 at $4165.20, and silver closed up $1.99 at $52.92.
Platinum closed up $22.00 at $1578.90, and palladium closed up $20.30 at $1422.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the November high of $4,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,175.00 and then at $4,200.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,127.50 and then at $4,100.00. December silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the record high of $54.415. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $47.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $52.235 and then at $53.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $50.96 and then at $50.00.
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