Commentary for Friday, Oct 10, 2025 – Today gold closed up $29.60 today at $3975.90, and silver closed up $0.09 at $46.94. In my opinion this week’s volatility in both gold and silver pricing may be the first sign of trouble in River City (The Music Man). I am not ready to jump out the window for lack of a better term, but sudden price changes as these may suggest key reversals in the still developing technical picture. There is still plenty of investor interest judging by the volume numbers across our trading desk, but the number of sellers is increasing. Which makes a certain amount of sense because there are plenty of early buyers who want to take advantage of these record prices. Last Friday gold closed at $3880.80 / silver at $47.60. On the week gold was higher by $95.10, and silver was lower by $0.66.
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On Monday gold in the early trade moved toward all-time highs ($3960.00) because traders expect a cut in interest rates this month and again in December. Gold’s record prices are helped by the growing concerns that our government shutdown is now in its 6 day with both parties are blaming each other. Rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East has also stoked safe haven demand. UBS (Union Bank of Switzerland) updated its forecast to $4200.00 before year end. I’m again in the minority, expecting this hot market to experience a round of profit taking. But CNBC notes that gold has posted 32 record highs in 2025, a very powerful bullish statement.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee and John Biju) – Gold surged to an all-time high above $3,900 per ounce on Monday, buoyed by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month, as well as economic and political uncertainty in the U.S., France and Japan. Spot gold was up 1.4% to $3,941.63 per ounce, as of 13:41 GMT, after hitting a high of $3,949.34 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 1.5% to $3,967.70 per ounce. Political developments in France, rising Japanese yields amid inflation concerns and the ongoing U.S. government shutdown are all contributing to gold’s rally, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. France’s new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his government resigned on Monday, hours after taking office, deepening the country’s political crisis. The yen was under pressure after Japan’s ruling party picked fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi as its head on Saturday. Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown entered its sixth day, with the White House threatening mass federal worker layoffs. Gold has climbed 50% so far this year in a record run underpinned by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, sustained central bank purchases, resilient safe-haven demand and broad dollar weakness. Spot gold prices broke the $3,000/oz level for the first time in March and $3,800 in late September. “The fact that we’re so close to $4,000/oz also suggests that some of the funds might be trying to push it up to get to that mark,” Meir added. Non-yielding gold thrives in a low-interest-rate environment and during economic uncertainties. Investors are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed meeting this month, with an additional 25-bp cut anticipated in December. “We see both fundamental and momentum-based reasons for gold to rally further and expect bullion to reach $4,200/oz by the end of this year,” (UBS). Spot silver climbed to $48.63 per ounce, hitting its highest level in more than 14 years. Platinum rose 2.3% to $1,642.25 and palladium gained 2.8% to $1,295.75.
On the day gold closed up $67.70 at $3948.50, and silver closed up $0.48 at $48.08.
On Tuesday the price of gold dipped on the open testing support at $3940.00. As traders bought this weakness, it pushed gold into fresh new territory ($3985.00). So, is it time for a pullback and a bit of profit taking before the end of this year? I would not be surprised, and this would be good for the longer term market. At the same time, because we are again setting new record highs it is difficult to say when this bullish train will slow down to any great degree. Especially if interest rates trend lower between now and the first quarter of next year. My bet is that lower interest rates will take the lead in pushing gold higher and profit taking will take the back seat. Goldman Sachs now sees $4900 gold in 2026 pushed by rising ETF and central bank demand.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Finally Touches 4k – The gold market reached the $4,000 level in the early hours of Tuesday, fulfilling the most obvious target in this market. At this point, do not be surprised if we get a pullback, but that’s a good thing. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have gone back and forth during the trading session in the early hours of Tuesday, as we have actually touched the crucial $4,000 level. This is a target that I think everybody has, and it would not be surprising at all to see a slight pullback here. In fact, we’ve already dropped $20, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the trend changes. What it means is there’s a lot of psychology around the $4,000 level, and much like big round numbers in other markets, there might be a bit of a short-term reaction. I look at any pullback as a potential buying opportunity in what has been an extraordinarily bullish market. And with that being said, I have a specific interest in the $3,800 level due to the fact that we previously had formed an ascending triangle, and the measured move was $3,800. After that, you would assume that there would be a little bit of market memory from that cluster at $3,800. But we could just simply take off to the upside. You just don’t know. If we break above 4,000 and sustain it, the sky is the limit at this point. There isn’t a real way to measure what the next target is from a technical analysis standpoint, until you start talking about Fibonacci extensions and things like that, which generally proved to be unreliable. So, with that being the case, breaking above 4,000, I think, could kick off the next leg to probably $4,100. Gold does tend to move in $100 increments, so that would be my best guess at that point. That being said, I do prefer to buy pullbacks all the way down to at least $3,800 on average. Silver Continues to Find Buyers on Dips – The silver market fell a bit in the early part of the Tuesday session, only to find buyers yet again. This is a market that continues to look strong, as we are eyeballing the crucial $50 level. Silver Technical Analysis – The silver market has gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday in the early hours. I think at this point, you have to look at this as a “buy on the dip” market. That’s certainly how traders treat it on Tuesday and pretty much every other day. So, at this point, it looks like $48 is an area that is attracting a lot of attention. But keep in mind that we are near an area that has failed twice over the last several decades. And it is worth noting that every time we get close to $50, silver collapses. I don’t know if that’s the case this time, but it is something to keep in mind. I’m sure there are a lot of traders out there who are probably hesitant to truly throw a ton of money into this market, with it being so elevated. Now, that being said, I think short-term pullbacks do offer those buying opportunities. And I’d be particularly interested closer to the $46 level. If we rally from here, the most obvious target will be $50. But again, like I said, $50 has been the ceiling for a long, long time, going back to about 1979. So that’s how extended we are at the moment. If the US dollar really starts to take off, that could cause some damage to the silver market. We’ll just have to wait and see. And it is worth noting that the US dollar is becoming increasingly stubborn against a lot of other currencies. So, that is a correlation to pay attention to. As things stand right now, there’s no way to short silver. You just can’t do it. It’s just far too strong.
On the day gold closed up $28.10 at $3976.60, and silver closed down $0.90 at $47.18.
On Wednesday the price of gold again surged higher testing overhead resistance ($4045.00). And few insiders see no reason why this march to higher ground should not make history next year at $5000.00. Still, I’m usually a dissenter on these big runs especially when there appear to be few bears in the woods. Records are usually made by climbing that wall of worry one step at a time and seasoned investors look for regular profit taking along the way. It is also interesting that Bank of America, who led the charge to $4000.00 gold, has turned cautious, now claiming our shiny friend may be overbought. So, is gold still a deal at $4000.00 or is this market getting ready to settle? The wild card here may be this government shutdown, now on its 8th day. This “one of a kind” event creates emotional uncertainty and stokes physical bullion demand. Still, I’m betting on some kind of a price pullback and settling before the weekend.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey and Anushree Ashish Murkerjee) – Gold shatters $4,000 milestone as investors rush to safety – Gold surged past the $4,000 an ounce level for the first time on Wednesday, building on a record-breaking rally as broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as well as expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts sent investors flocking to the safe-haven asset. Spot gold was up 1.5% at $4,041.71 per ounce by 10:09 AM ET (1409 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 1.5% to $4,063.70. Silver also latched on to gold’s rally, gaining 2.3% to $48.92 per ounce, and hovering just below its all-time high of $49.51. Gold, traditionally seen as a store of value during times of instability, is up 54% year-to-date, after gaining 27% in 2024. It is one of the best-performing assets of 2025, outpacing advances in global equity markets and bitcoin and losses for the U.S. dollar and crude oil. Its rally has been propelled by a combination of factors, including expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, mounting political and economic uncertainty, strong central bank buying, hefty inflows into gold-backed ETFs and a weakening dollar. “Gold’s strength reflects an extremely positive macroeconomic and geopolitical background for safe-haven assets, plus concerns over other traditional safe havens,” said Matthew Piggott, director of gold and silver at Metals Focus. “With these factors persisting into 2026, we fail to see any catalyst for gold to meaningfully retrace at present. Therefore, we expect gold to continue to push up throughout the year to attempt a challenge of $5,000/oz.” The U.S. government shutdown entered its eighth day on Wednesday, delaying the release of key economic data and forcing investors to rely on non-government sources to assess the timing and scope of Fed rate cuts. Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, with a similar reduction expected in December. Global crises, such as the Middle East conflict and the war in Ukraine, have stoked demand for bullion, while political turmoil in France and Japan added to the flight to gold. Globally, inflows into gold ETFs hit $64 billion year-to-date, according to data from the World Gold Council, with a record $17.3 billion in September alone. A “fear of missing out” is also boosting the rally, analysts said. On a technical basis, gold’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 88, indicating the metal is overbought. Silver was up more than 69% so far this year, benefiting from the same factors driving gold’s rally as well as tightness in the spot market. “The silver market continues to tighten, with rising lease rates, as Comex stocks scale record highs and amid India’s seasonal demand strength. The recent rally has been supported by hefty ETP inflows,” said Suki Cooper, Global Head, Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank. HSBC on Wednesday raised its average silver price forecasts for 2025 to $38.56 per ounce and for 2026 to $44.50, citing expectations for high gold prices, renewed investor demand and anticipated volatile trading. The momentum seeped into other precious metals as well, with platinum gaining 3.1% to $1,668.28, while palladium climbed 6.5% to $1,425.05, to its highest level since June 2023.
On the day gold closed up $66.70 at $4043.30, and silver closed up $1.48 at $48.66.
On Thursday the price of gold climbed from $4030.00 through $4044.00 in the early trade but this rally was sold, and gold closed down a whopping $97.00! This surprising dip in prices after yesterday’s leap to record highs may be the result of a peace deal announced in Gaza by President Trump. Each party, however in this complicated deal, must now go back and get their governments to sign off on the entire package. Easier to say than to do but everyone seems optimistic in the early days of what may prove to be a historic compromise. Less geopolitical tension suggests less safe haven demand, more profit taking and lower gold prices in 2026.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold holds above $4,000; silver hits $50 milestone – Gold prices held above $4,000 an ounce on Thursday as investors assessed the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal, while broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty alongside expectations for U.S. rate cuts sustained bullish sentiment towards the metal. Silver hit the $50 psychological level for the first time, bolstered by gold’s record-breaking rally, growing investor demand and a supply deficit. Spot gold was steady at $4,038.59 per ounce at 1226 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4,057.70. Gold prices rose above $4,000 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday, hitting a record high of $4,059.05. Silver was up 2.2% at $50.01 per ounce. The metal has gained more than 73% this year, benefiting from the same factors as those driving gold’s rally as well as tightness in the spot market. “The interesting aspect about the silver market is that the net long positions are only modestly higher, so this is not a rally based upon speculative interest. It’s got some pretty solid fundamentals attached to this move in the silver price,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire and hostage deal had been reached between Israel and Hamas under the first phase of his plan to end the war in Gaza. “Gold’s rally is facing resistance as the Gaza diplomatic breakthrough reduces risk-off flows, while the ongoing U.S. dollar recovery undermines bullion’s strength, leaving it vulnerable to pullbacks,” said Nikos Tzabouras, Senior Market Analyst at Tradu. “However, the bullish bias remains intact, and the path to new all-time highs is still wide open.” The U.S. dollar index hovered near a two-month high, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Geopolitical risks, including the Middle East crisis and the war in Ukraine, alongside strong central bank gold buying, ETF inflows, U.S. rate cut expectations, and economic uncertainties stemming from tariffs, all contributed to gold’s rally.
On the day gold closed down $97.00 at $3946.30, and silver closed down $1.81 at $46.85.
On Friday the price of gold pushed back to the $4000.00 level and then drifted somewhat lower on the close. Considering the steep dive of almost $100.00 yesterday I think traders are happy to see a rather large bounce here but may move to the sidelines going into the weekend. Because of the extreme price volatility this week the bulls may continue to take profits. The Gaza ceasefire also suggests less safe haven demand and lower prices in the physical gold market. At least in the short term. The technical guys see solid support around $3800.00. But you may find that gold is overbought at these record levels and will trend lower especially if interest rates weaken.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Murkherjee and Anmol Choubey) – Safe-haven demand, rate cut bets set gold on course for eighth straight weekly gain – Gold prices rose on Friday and remained on track for an eighth successive weekly gain, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month, while broader economic and political uncertainty added to its safe-haven appeal. Spot gold was up 0.3% to $3,985.60 per ounce as of 8:41 am ET (1241 GMT). The metal was on track for a weekly gain of 2.6% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $4,001.50. Non-yielding bullion, which hit a record high of $4,059.05 on Wednesday, is traditionally considered a hedge during times of broader uncertainty. Geopolitical risks, alongside strong central bank gold buying, exchange-traded funds inflows, U.S. rate cut expectations and economic uncertainties stemming from tariffs, have all contributed to gold’s rally. “It appears that expectations of US Fed rate cuts and investor concern about fiscal sustainability globally are supporting gold prices,” Hamad Hussain at Capital Economics. Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September meeting revealed policymakers were open to rate cuts to address labor market risks, though inflation concerns persisted. Investors anticipate two Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December. Markets are closely monitoring risks related to the potential collapse of the French government and the ongoing government shutdown in the United States. The U.S. dollar fell 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. “There is risk of a short-term pullback in prices given how quickly gold prices have risen in recent weeks. But over the next couple years, gold prices are likely to grind higher,” Hussain added. Silver is benefiting from the same factors driving gold’s rally, alongside concerns about supply deficit and rising demand for the metal.
On the day gold closed up $29.60 at $3975.90, and silver closed up $0.09 at $46.94.
Platinum closed down $33.40 at $1600.70, and palladium closed up $17.10 at $1447.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,020.50 and then at record high of $4,081.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $3,957.90 and then at $3,900.00. December silver futures bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, Thursday’s price action scored a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily chart, whereby the high was higher and low was lower than the previous session’s trading range. That’s one chart clue that a market top is in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $50.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $45.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $48.61 and then at $49.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $46.70 and then at $46.00.
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